Manderly's Navy and Heavy Horse

[Bright Blue Eyes]

1. We've got barely any hints for the rural population Manderley rules over. Could be anything between 500,000 and 3,000.000. Compared to White Harbour's 50,000...

2.Rodrik Cassel acted as castellan of Winterfell, gathering men in the name of the Starks, not on his own. Therefore we can't judge by the force he assembles.

Furthermore, we know the composition of Robb's forces at Moat Cailin. If I remember correctly, less than 2,000 of them are not counted as Karstarks, Manderleys, Boltons, Glovers, Tallharts, Hornwoods or another large house and could belong directly to the Starks after your definition. That's half the number the Boltons bring. Either the Starks have virtually no personal retainers, or a couple mentioned Houses (Glover, Tallhart,...) should be counted as such.

3. Again, Lepanto. It's only wikipedia, take it with a grain of salt, but It's stated that the composition of the christian forces was 3:3:1 for soldiers/oarsmen/sailors.

Yes, the refugees are a part of Manderley's army. So what? It's the current size we are interested in, not the one five years ago.

[Meddler]

The debate over the warships is interesting, but I think too much focus is being paid to Manderly's initial intent with them. The reason he had the war galleys built is because Ser Rodrick had ordered him to, using lumber provided by the Umbers. This happened during the Harvest Feast during ACoK. It's likely Manderly had been working on building the fleet the whole time and the intent was to have it there to support Robb, particularly in Stannis or the Redwynes became significant players in the war. There was at least as much time between the Harvest Feast and the Red Wedding as there was between the Red Wedding and Davos' arrival at White Harbour (probably more).

So now Manderly has ships, but no enemy to use them against and no liege lord he's loyal to. The question isn't so much what he built the ships for, but what he's going to do with them now that he has them and they no longer have a purpose.

As for his ground forces, my guess is he has a pretty decent sized host stashed at Castle Cerwyn. Cley Cerwyn was one of the nobles killed during the Sack of Winterfell, and Manderly now knows that Ramsay was responsible for these events. Lady Jonella, who has inherited the seat of House Cerwyn, was present at Barrowtown, as she signed the letters the Boltons were sending around. However, she is not present at Winterfell, and Castle Cerwyn is only a few hours ride from Winterfell. If Manderly found a way to inform Lady Cerwyn about Ramsay's responsibility in the events of the Sack, he could have brought her into his subversion with Robett Glover. Glover might also be at Castle Cerwyn.

Spoilers for TWoW to follow

My guess is there's going to be a parallel between the Winterfell battle and the Meereen battle. We know from the notes of the Barristan chapter that in the Meereen battle, Victarion shows up with his fleet and enters the battle, surprising Barristan by fighting as an ally. Something similar could happen with Stannis's troops seeing an overwhelming force of Mermen fighting against the Freys and Boltons. The question is, how will Stannis react? He was pretty disdainful of Manderly in the Theon chapter of TWoW. It would be an interesting juxtaposition if Stannis does not trust Manderly (who he probably should trust) and Barristan does trust the Ironmen (who he probably shouldn't trust).

[pavlosbal]

Yes that's what I also say that these 600 men were Stark not Cassel men I think you misunderstood me. I only meant to say that if he could find more than 600 men (600 he took to Torrhen's Square plus some more he left behind to protect the castle) to garrison Winterfell after many men already had gone south on his own then other houses, which I identify as retainers could also gather similar numbers of men, and I believe they already had done so.

As for Robb's army on Moat Cailin, I don't remember where the composition of Robb's army that you use comes from (If you could give me the source I would appreciate it) but from the number of men of some of the houses and some information in the books here is a list which does seem logical enough.

Karstarks: 2300

Dreadfort: 3000 (He's cautious he would not use so many men he has 3500 men in the RW but with Karstark presence The 4000 men bolton brings have smaller numbers of other houses)

Manderly: 1500

Hornwood:1500

Umber:1000 (they live way up north so they must be few but very warlike)

Mormont:1000 (a poor island)

Ryswell: 1500

Dustin: 500 (Lady Barbrey said to Theon that she sent the smallest number of men possible)

Cerwyn:1500

Glover and Tallhart: 2000

Reed:no men they were asked to stay behind and stop any lannister attack

Total: 15800 men (give or take 500 men) So that leaves 4700 House Stark men.

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

1. Exactly. White Harbour (which by the way has only 50,000 inhabitants) does barely matter in comparison to the rural areas Lord Manderley controls as well. White Harbour could field 2-5% of it's population, anything more is wishful thinking. 2-5% of 50,000 is 1,000-2,500 men. Out of a five-digits number.

2. But we are never shown these Stark retainers. Not once in the entire campaign of the Young Wolf are such a quantity of men sworn directly to Winterfell according to your definition shown. Therefore I presume that the independently shown Tallharts and Glovers should be counted as Stark men, which would make the numbers fit.

3. More like 100 oarsmen, 30 sailors and 100 fighters. Or something above that to account for spares. Either way, Manderley has to have these troops available, or he wouldn't build the ships.

1. Can you point us to the exact reference (book or otherwise) for White Harbor having 50k inhabitants? Lets say you are right about the negligibility of cities and warfare generally, as you are most likely using accepted historical principles for measurement. Lets point to the particular situation. Manderly has been preparing and arming White Harbor for possible invasion for two years now. Additionally, he has taken on refugees and troops from the war and has the funds for sell swords.

2. I have to agree with this. This has been my problem all along. The Starks seem to have too few under their direct control. Conventional wisdom says they should have much more.

3. If this is true, it means 5500 troops on the war galleys alone. With the petty lords sworn directly to White Harbor and the other houses of the area under Manderly's influence, Manderly likely has 10k to 15k men. Thats conservative taking into account cities are negligible for recruitment and ignoring other factors.

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

Yes that's what I also say that these 600 men were Stark not Cassel men I think you misunderstood me. I only meant to say that if he could find more than 600 men (600 he took to Torrhen's Square plus some more he left behind to protect the castle) to garrison Winterfell after many men already had gone south on his own then other houses, which I identify as retainers could also gather similar numbers of men, and I believe they already had done so.

As for Robb's army on Moat Cailin, I don't remember where the composition of Robb's army that you use comes from (If you could give me the source I would appreciate it) but from the number of men of some of the houses and some information in the books here is a list which does seem logical enough.

Karstarks: 2300

Dreadfort: 3000 (He's cautious he would not use so many men he has 3500 men in the RW but with Karstark presence The 4000 men bolton brings have smaller numbers of other houses)

Manderly: 1500

Hornwood:1500

Umber:1000 (they live way up north so they must be few but very warlike)

Mormont:1000 (a poor island)

Ryswell: 1500

Dustin: 500 (Lady Barbrey said to Theon that she sent the smallest number of men possible)

Cerwyn:1500

Glover and Tallhart: 2000

Reed:no men they were asked to stay behind and stop any lannister attack

Total: 15800 men (give or take 500 men) So that leaves 4700 House Stark men.

The Karstark and Manderly numbers are given directly from the book. The Karstarks are given from a Bran chapter, when he watches the Karstark host enter Winterfell along with Maester Luwin. The Manderly numbers are given from Cat's chapter, when she and the Manderly host are arriving at Moat Cailin to join Robb and his other Bannerman. The Unmber are an estimate. All from AGOT.

1. Your Umber numbers are low. I based my estimate off of the Bolton and Karstark numbers.

2. Bolton took a host South and left a garrison of 600 seasoned troops at the Dreadfort. He decimated Robb's forces until he was left with 3500 of his own troops (sprinkled with some Karstark leftovers). Rickard Karstark detached 1000 men from the Norhthern host to look exclusively for Jaime Lannister. What became of these men, who can say. So I would wager Bolton's own men to number from 2500 to 3000 (we are told they are chiefly Dreadfort men). Roose brought back 4000 Northman and we are again told that they are mostly his own men. We know he intentionally bled the other houses and left his forces intact. So, 3k Bolton men make perfect sense. Along with Ramsay, Roose had a total of at least 3600. Makes sense as they were the second most powerful house in the north and rivals of the Starks for thousands of years.

3. I think the Mormont, Cerwyn, Glover and Tallhart numbers may be a bit high. The Dustin numbers are bit low. Think about all of the other houses under Stark command. Outside of the top four houses, you are leaving almost nothing to attribute to them.

4. In AGOT, the same Bran chapter mentioned above, Maester Luwin states directly that Crannogmen are waiting at the Neck to join Robb's Host. He has 12,000 men at Winterfell at this point (Bolton, Umber, Glover and Karstark have all joined at this point). He has 18,000 (not including the Manderly men) at Moat Cailan when Cat arrives. So the numbers add up.

[pavlosbal]

I intentionally left the Umber numbers so small because i said that their lands are very close to the wall and so very sparsely populated. But i said that they are very fierce warriors so they have less men but better soldiers to balance things out. For the Dustins I used the minimum men possible as she said she did. Mormont are way too poor to bring more than 1000 (and I was very generous when i said 1000 maybe closer to 800 men) Glover may have 4 smaller houses under him but he lives in a forest so there is not much arrable land and so he has only 1000 men and the Tallharts are also of the same rank as the Glovers. Cerwyns might be a bit stronger say 2000 men but it does not make much of a difference to my calculations. And the Crannogmen are ordered to stay back and not join Robb's army. And all those small houses that i didn't calculate I thought they were small and their retinues were fighting with another bigger house. So I stand by what i said 4700 house Stark soldiers with Robb and a maximum of 14000 Stark soldiers in the North.

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

I intentionally left the Umber numbers so small because i said that their lands are very close to the wall and so very sparsely populated. But i said that they are very fierce warriors so they have less men but better soldiers to balance things out. For the Dustins I used the minimum men possible as she said she did. Mormont are way too poor to bring more than 1000 (and I was very generous when i said 1000 maybe closer to 800 men) Glover may have 4 smaller houses under him but he lives in a forest so there is not much arrable land and so he has only 1000 men and the Tallharts are also of the same rank as the Glovers. Cerwyns might be a bit stronger say 2000 men but it does not make much of a difference to my calculations. And the Crannogmen are ordered to stay back and not join Robb's army. And all those small houses that i didn't calculate I thought they were small and their retinues were fighting with another bigger house. So I stand by what i said 4700 house Stark soldiers with Robb and a maximum of 14000 Stark soldiers in the North.

I still think you are a bit off. Particularly, I don't think the Cerwyns are that strong, and its true Howland Reed was commanded to defend the Neck, but he also sent men south.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

1. Can you point us to the exact reference (book or otherwise) for White Harbor having 50k inhabitants? Lets say you are right about the negligibility of cities and warfare generally, as you are most likely using accepted historical principles for measurement. Lets point to the particular situation. Manderly has been preparing and arming White Harbor for possible invasion for two years now. Additionally, he has taken on refugees and troops from the war and has the funds for sell swords.

2. I have to agree with this. This has been my problem all along. The Starks seem to have too few under their direct control. Conventional wisdom says they should have much more.

3. If this is true, it means 5500 troops on the war galleys alone. With the petty lords sworn directly to White Harbor and the other houses of the area under Manderly's influence, Manderly likely has 10k to 15k men. Thats conservative taking into account cities are negligible for recruitment and ignoring other factors.

1. It's some SSM if I remember correctly. Too lazy to dig through 15 years of them though, sorry.

3. Yes, I always estmated the Manderleys at ~15,000 men, putting him on the same level as the Hightowers and the Redwynes.

I intentionally left the Umber numbers so small because i said that their lands are very close to the wall and so very sparsely populated. But i said that they are very fierce warriors so they have less men but better soldiers to balance things out. For the Dustins I used the minimum men possible as she said she did. Mormont are way too poor to bring more than 1000 (and I was very generous when i said 1000 maybe closer to 800 men) Glover may have 4 smaller houses under him but he lives in a forest so there is not much arrable land and so he has only 1000 men and the Tallharts are also of the same rank as the Glovers. Cerwyns might be a bit stronger say 2000 men but it does not make much of a difference to my calculations. And the Crannogmen are ordered to stay back and not join Robb's army. And all those small houses that i didn't calculate I thought they were small and their retinues were fighting with another bigger house. So I stand by what i said 4700 house Stark soldiers with Robb and a maximum of 14000 Stark soldiers in the North.

Rather unlikely. The Umbers have 1,000 green boys and greybeards left in Dance. Their main strength has to be substantial more. Furthermore, 1,000 men is the force of a powerful petty Lord, but the Umbers aren't petty Lords at all. To round it up, the Mountain clans, in worse territory, got 5,000 men.

That goes for all the Houses, none of them can have much less than 2,000 men or they would be considered petty Lords.

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

1. It's some SSM if I remember correctly. Too lazy to dig through 15 years of them though, sorry.

3. Yes, I always estmated the Manderleys at ~15,000 men, putting him on the same level as the Hightowers and the Redwynes.

That goes for all the Houses, none of them can have much less than 2,000 men or they would be considered petty Lords.

1. I will take the number at face value until I see the actual number from the man himself.

3. I will agree that Manderly is powerful, but I cannot put him on the same level as the Hightowers and Redwynes. He simply cannot match their coin or their manpower.

[pavlosbal]

1. It's some SSM if I remember correctly. Too lazy to dig through 15 years of them though, sorry.

3. Yes, I always estmated the Manderleys at ~15,000 men, putting him on the same level as the Hightowers and the Redwynes.

Rather unlikely. The Umbers have 1,000 green boys and greybeards left in Dance. Their main strength has to be substantial more. Furthermore, 1,000 men is the force of a powerful petty Lord, but the Umbers aren't petty Lords at all. To round it up, the Mountain clans, in worse territory, got 5,000 men.

That goes for all the Houses, none of them can have much less than 2,000 men or they would be considered petty Lords.

Does this mean then that the Lords of Dragonstone Bar Emmon, Celtigar, Velaryon, and Sunglass who along with the men that Stannis has in Dragonstone are close to 5000 are all petty lords? Because if we say that they all have the same manpower then they have on average 1000 men. But these houses are all rich ancient and powerful.

And what about the Florents? They are a noble house they are rich and in comparison to the Umbers who live far north they live in the reach in a very big citadel (well not as big as Highgarden, Winterfell Casterly Rock or Oldtown but still one of the biggest in Westeros certainly bigger than Las Hearth ) Brightwater Keep and yet they have 2000 men at best. Does that mean that Umbers are more powerful than the Florents? Or their lands more populous?

I still think you are a bit off. Particularly, I don't think the Cerwyns are that strong, and its true Howland Reed was commanded to defend the Neck, but he also sent men south.

Maybe my Cerwyn number is a bit off, but still they can't be less that 1000 men the smallest possible number for me is 1200 to 1000 men. As for the Reeds I can't say for sure that some of their men went south because I don't remember that from the books and just to be sure I checked the wiki page of House Reed which says that the crannongmen did not go south. Maester Luwin did say that crannongmen would join Robb south but maybe he was wrong or Robb changed his mind

[Bright Blue Eyes]

3. I will agree that Manderly is powerful, but I cannot put him on the same level as the Hightowers and Redwynes. He simply cannot match their coin or their manpower.

Why? The influence and wealth of White Harbour and the Merman are smeared all over the table.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

Does this mean then that the Lords of Dragonstone Bar Emmon, Celtigar, Velaryon, and Sunglass who along with the men that Stannis has in Dragonstone are close to 5000 are all petty lords? Because if we say that they all have the same manpower then they have on average 1000 men. But these houses are all rich ancient and powerful.

And what about the Florents? They are a noble house they are rich and in comparison to the Umbers who live far north they live in the reach in a very big citadel (well not as big as Highgarden, Winterfell Casterly Rock or Oldtown but still one of the biggest in Westeros certainly bigger than Las Hearth ) Brightwater Keep and yet they have 2000 men at best. Does that mean that Umbers are more powerful than the Florents? Or their lands more populous?

The Crownlands and the Narrow Sea are established to be the least powerful region of all, being the punching bag of everybody before Aegon's Landing. Furthermore, they are all "good dragon men", their loyalty to Stannis is very questionable.

There isn't any hint that Brightwater Keep is bigger than Last Hearth, not a single one. Furthermore, comparing the North to the Reach is difficult at best. The Manderley lands on their own are as big as the entire Reach together, for example.

The Florents are powerful through their political standing and their history as heirs of the Kings of the Reach, not exactly through their military prowess.

[Faint]

Wyman Manderly simply cannot field as many men as Leyton Hightower. Oldtown is orders of magnitude larger than White Harbor and Leyton Hightower is the richest person in Westeros with the exception of Cersei Lannister.

I can maybe see Manderly fielding 8,000 to 10,000 men, which would be about twice as many as the Boltons or Karstarks can scrap together. The Hightower force is probably closer to 20,000 men.

[pavlosbal]

The Manderlys land is not a big as the reach maybe the Stark lands, as I defined them earlier(the area around the Kingsroad from Moat Cailin to Last Hearth and from entire west bank of the white knife (while the Maderlys only control the southeast part of it) to the areas west up to the Wolfswood, Torrhen's Square and Barrowtown), are as big as the Reach. And there is no doubt that Florents must be stonger than the Umbers. 2000 men at best for a Reach house and a noble like house Florent is small. So the Umbers cannot have more. The Manderlys cannot field as many men as the Hightowers or the Redwynes. House Hightower is said to have 10000 men maybe 4000-5000 more if it recruits heavily. So the biggest bannerman of House Tyrell has 15000 men and the Redwynes another 12000-13000 (By the way I imagine that soldiers under direct Tyrell control should be 22000-23000 men). Manderly at best has 8000.

[Faint]

I actually tend to go low with my estimates for House Redwyne but I think that has to do with how we are defining their force. Are we talking sailors or fighting men? I'm sure the Redwynes have plenty of sailors but I wouldn't be surprised if their fighting force is as low as 7,000 to 8,000 men. I'm also more bullish on the Hightowers, since Oldtown and the surrounding areas must be the most densely populated region in Westeros.

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

Does this mean then that the Lords of Dragonstone Bar Emmon, Celtigar, Velaryon, and Sunglass who along with the men that Stannis has in Dragonstone are close to 5000 are all petty lords? Because if we say that they all have the same manpower then they have on average 1000 men. But these houses are all rich ancient and powerful.

And what about the Florents? They are a noble house they are rich and in comparison to the Umbers who live far north they live in the reach in a very big citadel (well not as big as Highgarden, Winterfell Casterly Rock or Oldtown but still one of the biggest in Westeros certainly bigger than Las Hearth ) Brightwater Keep and yet they have 2000 men at best. Does that mean that Umbers are more powerful than the Florents? Or their lands more populous?

Maybe my Cerwyn number is a bit off, but still they can't be less that 1000 men the smallest possible number for me is 1200 to 1000 men. As for the Reeds I can't say for sure that some of their men went south because I don't remember that from the books and just to be sure I checked the wiki page of House Reed which says that the crannongmen did not go south. Maester Luwin did say that crannongmen would join Robb south but maybe he was wrong or Robb changed his mind

1. The young Cerwyn heir joined Ser Rodrick with 300 men (probably the garrison leftovers), I will grant you 800 to 1000 men likely went south. But thats it.

2. I'm just telling you what was in the books. I don't think Maester Luwin is a fool and I don't think Robb would turn down help from his bannerman. Lord Howland went south with Ned, and I'm sure his bannerman did as well. There are plenty of Neck houses, so that some could go south with their liege lord and others can stay behind to help defend the Neck. Maybe the Wiki is more accurate. Maybe Robb thanked the crannogmen for coming but due to their small size have them stay back.

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

Why? The influence and wealth of White Harbour and the Merman are smeared all over the table.

Wyman Manderly simply cannot field as many men as Leyton Hightower. Oldtown is orders of magnitude larger than White Harbor and Leyton Hightower is the richest person in Westeros with the exception of Cersei Lannister.

I can maybe see Manderly fielding 8,000 to 10,000 men, which would be about twice as many as the Boltons or Karstarks can scrap together. The Hightower force is probably closer to 20,000 men.

I simply have to agree with Faint on this.

1. House Hightower is simply the most powerful banner house in the Seven Kingdoms. They are as rich as the Lannisters and can field more men that any other single house. They have been ruling and doing business in their part of the Reach since the Dawn of Days. They control significant bannerman of their own. 20k is probably a conservative estimate. Cities are considered negligible for manpower for some reason, but the book does talk of the Hightowers drafting every able bodied man in Oldtown into service to further swell their ranks.

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

I actually tend to go low with my estimates for House Redwyne but I think that has to do with how we are defining their force. Are we talking sailors or fighting men? I'm sure the Redwynes have plenty of sailors but I wouldn't be surprised if their fighting force is as low as 7,000 to 8,000 men. I'm also more bullish on the Hightowers, since Oldtown and the surrounding areas must be the most densely populated region in Westeros.

I have to agree again. Lord Redwyne floats over 1200 ships (200 warships and 1000 merchant vessels). Again we don't know the warrior to sailor ratio. Since the ironmen have not been able to take the island, I would suspect their land force is significant. Remember that the Hightowers can field at the very least, three times as many men as any other Reach banner house. So, either your Redwyne estimates are too high or your Hightower estimates are too low.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

Wyman Manderly simply cannot field as many men as Leyton Hightower. Oldtown is orders of magnitude larger than White Harbor and Leyton Hightower is the richest person in Westeros with the exception of Cersei Lannister.

I can maybe see Manderly fielding 8,000 to 10,000 men, which would be about twice as many as the Boltons or Karstarks can scrap together. The Hightower force is probably closer to 20,000 men.

And Wyman Manderley the next-richest. The silver of White Harbour is renowned and Wyman Manderley controls way more rural landscape than the Hightowers.

The Manderlys land is not a big as the reach maybe the Stark lands, as I defined them earlier(the area around the Kingsroad from Moat Cailin to Last Hearth and from entire west bank of the white knife (while the Maderlys only control the southeast part of it) to the areas west up to the Wolfswood, Torrhen's Square and Barrowtown), are as big as the Reach. And there is no doubt that Florents must be stonger than the Umbers. 2000 men at best for a Reach house and a noble like house Florent is small. So the Umbers cannot have more. The Manderlys cannot field as many men as the Hightowers or the Redwynes. House Hightower is said to have 10000 men maybe 4000-5000 more if it recruits heavily. So the biggest bannerman of House Tyrell has 15000 men and the Redwynes another 12000-13000 (By the way I imagine that soldiers under direct Tyrell control should be 22000-23000 men). Manderly at best has 8000.

The Boltons got 4-5,000 men. The Freys 4-6,000. The Dondarrions got 4,800 in the Hedge Knight. Why do you presume the Florents to be stronger than the Umbers? The Umbers gather another 1,000 men after the Red Wedding! Why do you presume the Manderleys to have "only" 8,000 at best?

1. The young Cerwyn heir joined Ser Rodrick with 300 men (probably the garrison leftovers), I will grant you 800 to 1000 men likely went south. But thats it.

2. I'm just telling you what was in the books. I don't think Maester Luwin is a fool and I don't think Robb would turn down help from his bannerman. Lord Howland went south with Ned, and I'm sure his bannerman did as well. There are plenty of Neck houses, so that some could go south with their liege lord and others can stay behind to help defend the Neck. Maybe the Wiki is more accurate. Maybe Robb thanked the crannogmen for coming but due to their small size have them stay back.

Both Ned and Robb Stark explicitly ordered Howland Reed to stay back and guard the Neck instead of marching south with Robb.

I simply have to agree with Faint on this.

1. House Hightower is simply the most powerful banner house in the Seven Kingdoms. They are as rich as the Lannisters and can field more men that any other single house. They have been ruling and doing business in their part of the Reach since the Dawn of Days. They control significant bannerman of their own. 20k is probably a conservative estimate. Cities are considered negligible for manpower for some reason, but the book does talk of the Hightowers drafting every able bodied man in Oldtown into service to further swell their ranks.

More like 15,000. Three times the other Houses, which I assume to be ~5,000. See Boltons, Freys and Dondarrions for reference. But why should the Manderleys field less?

I have to agree again. Lord Redwyne floats over 1200 ships (200 warships and 1000 merchant vessels). Again we don't know the warrior to sailor ratio. Since the ironmen have not been able to take the island, I would suspect their land force is significant. Remember that the Hightowers can field at the very least, three times as many men as any other Reach banner house. So, either your Redwyne estimates are too high or your Hightower estimates are too low.

The Redwynes are most likely excluded in that passage. 200 warships would need 20,000-30,000 soldiers if they are all wargalleys. There are probably some longships as well.

And I presume the Redwynes to concentrate their entire forces in the fleet, they are an island after all.

[Stallion That Mounts Texas]

And Wyman Manderley the next-richest. The silver of White Harbour is renowned and Wyman Manderley controls way more rural landscape than the Hightowers.

Its more like 1a. Lannister 1b. Hightower 2. Tyrell 3. Redwyne. I think these first four are not in dispute. Manderly would be fourth at best, but that is still questionable. The Freys are incredibly wealthy due to the huge tolls extracted for passage through the Twins. The lord of Gulltown has to be incredibly wealthy. All kinds of wealth merchants exist all over Westeros. Wyman Manderly is the richest of the Northern lords, but not necessarily one of the richest in the realm. Gold trumps silver by far, and that my friend resides in the South.

The Boltons got 4-5,000 men. The Freys 4-6,000. The Dondarrions got 4,800 in the Hedge Knight. Why do you presume the Florents to be stronger than the Umbers? The Umbers gather another 1,000 men after the Red Wedding! Why do you presume the Manderleys to have "only" 8,000 at best?

Your numbers for the Freys and Boltons are a bit too high. The Boltons can likely get 4k of their own men. Roose likely took 3k men south and left Ramsay with a garrison of 600 seasoned fighters. Ramsay marched to Moat Cailan with a host of Bolton, Dustin and Ryswell men.

The Freys have never fielded more than 4k. They sent Robb off with 1,000 horse and near 3,000 foot (less 400 to guard the Twins). 2,000 Freys besieged Riverrun and 2,000 went North with Roose Bolton. You are spot on about the Dondarrions though.

Both Ned and Robb Stark explicitly ordered Howland Reed to stay back and guard the Neck instead of marching south with Robb.

Well, no. Ned sent orders for Helman Tallhart and Galbart Glover to raise 100 men each and fortify Moat Cailin. He sent word for Lord Manderly to repair all of his defenses and see that they are manned. And he sent word to keep a close watch on Theon as his father's longships would be needed to win a war against the Lannisters.

We know that Crannogmen were meeting Robb at the Neck. If none marched, it is safe to assume he ordered them to stay back. The Wiki says one thing and the books say another sometimes. I don't know how accurate the Wiki is. Has it all been confirmed by GRRM?

More like 15,000. Three times the other Houses, which I assume to be ~5,000. See Boltons, Freys and Dondarrions for reference. But why should the Manderleys field less?

Why reference the aforementioned houses when the Hightowers are in a league of their own? Remember, the Reach is by far the most populous of the kingdoms and the Hightowers have been ruling their corner since the earliest of days. The concentration of population around Oltown, the Honeywine, and the Whispering Sound must be immense. Additionally, a major Reach house may surpass the 4800 men raised by House Dondarrion. The Tyrells mustered 70,000 men (not including the Hightower men). It stands to reason that a major house could raise 5,000-8,000 men. We just don't know how many men the Oakhearts, Rowans, Tarlys, or Redwyns can raise.

The Redwynes are most likely excluded in that passage. 200 warships would need 20,000-30,000 soldiers if they are all wargalleys. There are probably some longships as well.

And I presume the Redwynes to concentrate their entire forces in the fleet, they are an island after all.

Why would Tarly exclude them? If you concentrate your entire force in the fleet, you leave the Arbor wide open for invasion. The ironmen have not taken the Arbor, so its safe to assume that there is a significant Redwyne force guarding the island. The ironmen are the only force known to use longships (they are patterned after vikings after all). Its likely the Redwyns rely on troops from the mainland to fill the warships. The Hightowers, Willas, and Garlan are waiting for the Redwyne fleet so that they can send their men against the ironborn.