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[TWoW Spoilers] Theon I, Part 5


Angalin

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The reason for Mance mentions Reek and the skin cloaks is because he's pretending to be Ramsay and wants to create Ramsey's voice.

The author is clearly someone who knows some things about Ramsay, but not a lot about Ramsay.

Things he gets right: liking skin cloaks, calling Theon Reek, being Lord of Winterfell, cruel attitude.

Things he gets wrong: chopping heads off and eating hearts instead of flaying, using language like "black crows," Winterfell's wax color, no skin in the letter, handwriting.

On the things Mance gets right, he was actually present for. He heard Ramsey say he wanted to make a skin cloak out of the murderers. He heard people call Theon Reek (and talked to Theon - "I want my bride back, I want my Reek").

On the things Mance gets wrong, they are understandable mistakes considering he's a Wildling attempting to mimick Seven Kingdom speak.

It's pretty clear to me Mance is the author. He's the only name listed, he is the subject of half the letter and the "cage" is clearly to mirror his burning.

On motive:

Imagine you're Mance. You were once "free folk" and now you're the red witch's slave. She has your son and might burn him for her magic. And you're stuck at the Wall where the Others are coming.

The Red Witch sends you to Winterfell to rescue Arya. An assignment that at best leads you back to the Wall as a slave. At worst, you're killed by Ramsay or maybe Stannis.

Not a great deal.

But you do something else. You kill six random people to create some chaos and then pull Theon in your plan. You tell Theon that you're going to escape with him to Stannis, but then you stand him up. After all, going to Stannis at best leads you back to the Wall.

So, now what? You're surrounded by armies and your son is still at the Wall. You need help, but yort only friends are the Wildlngs. But how do you communicate with them? You can only get letters to the Night's Watch. How do you get your Wildlings to come to you.

Or how to do you create chaos with the Night's Watch to allow you to get your son back?

Great explanation. I wondered why Mance didn't make it to the rendezvous. I can definitely see it being intentional. The letter just sounds fake. Six spear wives? Why not just say spear wives? "King Beyond The Wall" is a dead giveaway that Ramsay did not write it. Plus there was no Dreadfort stamp on the letter. Mance knows once the wildings hear he's alive, they'll come. And he was right. I don't think Mance wants Winterfell for himself. The North would never unite under him. He wants Jon to claim Winterfell as a Stark as Mance realized that Arya was fake. Can't figure out why he wants Melisandre.

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Great explanation. I wondered why Mance didn't make it to the rendezvous. I can definitely see it being intentional. The letter just sounds fake. Six spear wives? Why not just say spear wives? "King Beyond The Wall" is a dead giveaway that Ramsay did not write it. Plus there was no Dreadfort stamp on the letter. Mance knows once the wildings hear he's alive, they'll come. And he was right. I don't think Mance wants Winterfell for himself. The North would never unite under him. He wants Jon to claim Winterfell as a Stark as Mance realized that Arya was fake. Can't figure out why he wants Melisandre.

Thanks, yeah, I definitely think missing the rendezvous was intentional. I mean, four spearwives missed it as well! I don't know what Mance is up to, but he's up to something.

The requests all seem to be to make enemies. He asks for Arya, which should anger Jon. He asks for the Queen and Shireen, which should anger the Queens' men and maybe bring them down. He asks for Val and the little prince, which should anger the Wildlings. (He asks for Reek just to sound like Ramsay, I think.)

As for Melisandra, notice how she is coupled with Shireen? ("I want his daughter as his red witch") Who are the two most important people in the Queen's life? (hint: Stannis aint one of them) The Queen is a fundamentalist and Mel is her guide. Mance wants the Queen's men to march south with her troops as well.

More chaos in Winterfell, fewer people at the Wall.

Some questions I'm dying to know the answer to:

1) Did Mance recognize Arya as a fake? He's been to Winterfell before after all.

2) Did Mance find out that his baby is in Oldtown? Maybe the spearwives knew.

3) What did Mance make Theon "sing" about? Just bathing? About Ramsay's character? About fake Arya? About Bran and Rickon?

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Great explanation. I wondered why Mance didn't make it to the rendezvous. I can definitely see it being intentional. The letter just sounds fake. Six spear wives? Why not just say spear wives? "King Beyond The Wall" is a dead giveaway that Ramsay did not write it. Plus there was no Dreadfort stamp on the letter. Mance knows once the wildings hear he's alive, they'll come. And he was right. I don't think Mance wants Winterfell for himself. The North would never unite under him. He wants Jon to claim Winterfell as a Stark as Mance realized that Arya was fake. Can't figure out why he wants Melisandre.

"King Beyond the Wall" is a term used pretty widely in the North to describe wildlings who unite much of the free folk behind them, typically to attack South of the Wall.

The reason for Mance mentions Reek and the skin cloaks is because he's pretending to be Ramsay and wants to create Ramsey's voice.

There is no point though. Jon doesn't know who Reek is. The line just confuses him. If Mance wanted to let anyone know he was in the know, he should have said "Theon Greyjoy." Do you know who actually cares about "Reek"? Ramsay.

The author is clearly someone who knows some things about Ramsay, but not a lot about Ramsay.

Hey, Ramsay knows somethings about Ramsay.

Things he gets right: liking skin cloaks, calling Theon Reek, being Lord of Winterfell, cruel attitude.

Things he gets wrong: chopping heads off and eating hearts instead of flaying, using language like "black crows," Winterfell's wax color, no skin in the letter, handwriting.

Are you telling me Ramsay has never decapitated anyone? Sometimes, he just kills people if he doesn't want to go through the bother of flaying them. Pretty much everything else in that letter is evidence of Ramsay being under some amount of pressure. Realistically, if the letter was completely accurate, then Roose would be the one writing it... or rather he would show up at Castle Black in strength, make his demands, promise to leave the Watch alone if they are met, and then maybe keep his word, but probably not.

On the things Mance gets right, he was actually present for. He heard Ramsey say he wanted to make a skin cloak out of the murderers. He heard people call Theon Reek (and talked to Theon - "I want my bride back, I want my Reek").

Or, we have Ramsay talking like Ramsay, and not Mance trying to talk like Ramsay.

On the things Mance gets wrong, they are understandable mistakes considering he's a Wildling attempting to mimick Seven Kingdom speak.

You Charlie Chaplin once entered a Charlie Chaplin look-a-like contest, and lost?

It's pretty clear to me Mance is the author. He's the only name listed, he is the subject of half the letter and the "cage" is clearly to mirror his burning.

Except for the big signature of Ramsay on the bottom. That is another name listed. Probably because he wrote it.

On motive:

Imagine you're Mance. You were once "free folk" and now you're the red witch's slave. She has your son and might burn him for her magic. And you're stuck at the Wall where the Others are coming.

OK, the Others are coming. Does stirring up trouble with the guy whose currently defending against them make sense?

The Red Witch sends you to Winterfell to rescue Arya. An assignment that at best leads you back to the Wall as a slave. At worst, you're killed by Ramsay or maybe Stannis.

Not a great deal.

But you do something else. You kill six random people to create some chaos and then pull Theon in your plan. You tell Theon that you're going to escape with him to Stannis, but then you stand him up. After all, going to Stannis at best leads you back to the Wall.

If that is what Mance wanted to do, he could have, you know, run.

So, now what? You're surrounded by armies and your son is still at the Wall. You need help, but yort only friends are the Wildlngs. But how do you communicate with them? You can only get letters to the Night's Watch. How do you get your Wildlings to come to you.

When Mance left the Wall, there were only 300 wildling soldiers, or there abouts, still heavily outnumbered by the Night's Watch. If Mance thinks they can make a difference at Winterfell, he's a fool. Mance Rayder is not a fool.

Or how to do you create chaos with the Night's Watch to allow you to get your son back?

All Mance Rayder wrote the Pink Letter theories seem to be: assume Mance Rayder wrote the Pink Letter despite the pre-ponderance of evidence that Ramsay wrote the Pink Letter. Now, notice how we can explain away this parts perfectly explained by Ramsay making demands by showing how its a hidden message from Mance.

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Petyr... I'm going to address your two strongest points.

How would Mance know Theon is Reek? Theon's appearance has totally changed and Theon is never around Abel. Asha couldn't even tell it was him, and that's her brother.

There is no way Roose would go to castle black for Reek or a fake Arya. If Jon actually had fake Arya, he could prove ramsay's claim to Winterfell is a sham. So why would the Bolton's tell Jon, her brother, to bring her back if she's not the real thing. That would create more problems for them.

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Ramsay is simply the last person I think wrote the letter. Here's the full list of reasons:



1) Wrong color wax. Winterfell uses white wax.


2) A smear of wax instead of a button.


3) No skin or blood


4) No "spiky handwriting"


5) Different tone from previous letters: short sentences instead of eloquent ones.


6) No backup signatures from other lords


7) Wrong torture techniques: chopping heads, eating hearts



Now, some could say that Ramsay was in a rush and forgot 1-7. Maybe he had an off day. Except:



7) Letter is very deliberate: uses aliases for everyone....except Mance


8) Letter is very deliberate: quotes other people including Mance, Stannis, Mel and Theon. "Your false king" is a speech Mel made right before Rattleshirt burned. "Burned the man he needed to burn for all the world to see." is Mance talking about Stannis. "And he wants his Reek" is Theon.


9) Letter is very deliberate: makes a parallel allusion to Mance's burning in a cage with an ice cage.


10) Letter is very deliberate: tries to piss off Jon in every way possible. Tells him his kings is dead, calls him bastard, calls him a liar, wants his sister, demands women and children hostages and most of all - taunts Jon with "Trueborn Lord of Winterfell." That's an offer Stannis made to Jon. How would Ramsay know about it?



And very difficult to get around:



10) Uses wildling language: "black crows," "King-Beyond-the-Wall."


11) Antagonizes opponents he doesn't need to antagonize: Wildlings, Night's Watch, Queen's Men.


12) Asks for people Ramsay doesn't need or want: Stannis' Queen, Val, little prince





Now, back to Mance and his motive. People keep forgetting that the Queen's men are there with quite a few troops to. This letter threatens them. WIth both Queen's men and wildlings (and possible Night's Watch) coming down, there is quite a force.



Mance could possibly want a few things: to be rescued, chaos at the Wall so he can sneak back to steal his child, or weakness at the Wall for another Wildling invasion from Beyond.

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"The ironmen are to remain here, supposedly to fight for us. Another gift from Tycho Nestoris."

Qarl the Maid was with her, and Tristifer Botley. Theon had known Botley since they were boys together, back on Pyke. Why has she brought her pets? Does she mean to cut me free? They would end the same way as the Karstarks, if she tried.
The king was displeased by their presence as well. "Your guards may wait without. If I meant harm to you, two men would not dissuade me."
The ironborn bowed and retreated.

Does anyone else find this situation a little bit strange? Stannis' former prisoners were ransomed and are now serving as Stannis' current prisoner's bodyguards. Strikes me as weird that he would allow it, even if they do say they intend to fight for him.

Is there a similar situation anywhere else in the series?

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"The ironmen are to remain here, supposedly to fight for us. Another gift from Tycho Nestoris."

Qarl the Maid was with her, and Tristifer Botley. Theon had known Botley since they were boys together, back on Pyke. Why has she brought her pets? Does she mean to cut me free? They would end the same way as the Karstarks, if she tried.

The king was displeased by their presence as well. "Your guards may wait without. If I meant harm to you, two men would not dissuade me."

The ironborn bowed and retreated.

Does anyone else find this situation a little bit strange? Stannis' former prisoners were ransomed and are now serving as Stannis' current prisoner's bodyguards. Strikes me as weird that he would allow it, even if they do say they intend to fight for him.

Is there a similar situation anywhere else in the series?

I do find it odd that they have so much freedom walking around camp.

I'm trying to wrap my head around the logic of the narrative:

1) Stannis and company take Deepwood Motte and capture at least 8 Ironborn (including Asha).

2) Then, apparently, Stannis gives 7 of the them to House Glover and keeps Asha.

3) As a gift, the Braavosi pays the ransom on the 7 to House Glover and gives them to Stannis to fight for him. But, Stannis doesn't really value them or their loyalty ("supposedly to fight for us"), but then again, he doesn't have much prison space.

So....Stannis was just given back men he gave away that he doesn't really value in the first place?

4) Even though they are "given" to Stannis, the Ironborn immediately go and act as Asha's bodyguards.

Well, I guess Stannis was correct about their value and loyalty.

I mean, on the one hand, Stannis defeated the Ironborn, but on the other hand, Stannis has no real beef with them. He looks at them like the Wildlings: not really his foe, but fought against them symbolically to look like a king and gain support. And just as with the Wildlings, he shows immediate forgiveness to his defeated foe.

He seems to think they are so useless and harmless that he'll let them walk around camp doing what they want, I guess.

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I suppose. I'm interested to see what they do during the upcoming battle. Letting a prisoner have 7 armed bodyguards while most of your forces are off fighting seems like asking for trouble, but I can't exactly picture them fighting for Stannis with the rest of the soldiers. Maybe they're willing to help Stannis insofar as it protects Asha from Ramsay. :dunno:


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Asha has a bum leg, her ironmen cannot go home for fear of Euron's wrath. Being captured in battle, they are thralls, first to Stannis, then to lord glover and then to the iron bank, then to stannis. their only real hope is Asha and Theon, without those two the men would be fodder. Better to serve stannis than to feel the wrath of the northerners, the boltons or the ironborn under Euron

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"The ironmen are to remain here, supposedly to fight for us. Another gift from Tycho Nestoris."

Qarl the Maid was with her, and Tristifer Botley. Theon had known Botley since they were boys together, back on Pyke. Why has she brought her pets? Does she mean to cut me free? They would end the same way as the Karstarks, if she tried.

The king was displeased by their presence as well. "Your guards may wait without. If I meant harm to you, two men would not dissuade me."

The ironborn bowed and retreated.

Does anyone else find this situation a little bit strange? Stannis' former prisoners were ransomed and are now serving as Stannis' current prisoner's bodyguards. Strikes me as weird that he would allow it, even if they do say they intend to fight for him.

Is there a similar situation anywhere else in the series?

It is certainly an interesting turn of events. The Ironborn have been ransomed, and as such aren't prisoners anymore. However, they don't really have anywhere to go and are personally loyal to Asha. Stannis might not like them, and they might not like fighting for Stannis, but all things considered its the best situation for both sides.

It is sort of "strange bedfellows" meets "today's enemy is tomorrow's ally."

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