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[TWoW Spoilers] Theon I, Part 5


Angalin

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Just joined. Hi all!

After reading the Theon chapter i have been thinking about the Ramsay letter to Jon. The only thing that makes sense to me at least is that Ramsay did indeed write it and Ramsay believes everything in it to be true. All about Manse and his women is accurate. All else is disinformation sent to him by Stannis. I believe that Stannis defeated the Freys with the help of the Manderlays. They then sent a raven in Karstarks name to Winterfel telling the Boltons that Stannis is dead after 7 days of battle and they have his magic sword. They also write that Stannis had sent Fake Arya and Reek to the wall before the battle. Ramsay buys the deception hook. line, and sinker and sends the "Bastard" letter to Jon Snow. Stannis sends this disinformation to the Boltons knowing that it is the best chance they have of drawing Boltons forces out of Winterfel as not having Arya is a disaster and without her they have no claim to Winterfel and lose legitimacy with the rest of the North. Drawing them out of winterfel is key to victory as Stannis's forces cannot stay out in the cold much longer.

I am quickly reading through the posts on here so most likely you all have thought of this but I thought i would throw my 2 cents worth in anyway (hope it’s worth at least a penny in all of your eyes)

I pretty much agree (I'd say that the "the battle lasted for 7 days" was an invention of Ramsay to make himself look more badass though but I agree with the rest). Welcome to the forum btw.

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I pretty much agree (I'd say that the "the battle lasted for 7 days" was an invention of Ramsay to make himself look more badass though but I agree with the rest). Welcome to the forum btw.

Thanks for the welcome!

So it seems pretty much universally agreed

Ramsay wrote the letter based on Stannis deception

Stannis is alive

Manse is alive but caged

Manderlay will turn cloak to Stannis

I also have been pondering Manderlays talk with Davos. Has Manderlay joined Stannis on his own or has Davos shown up with Rickon completing the agreed upon deal?

It would be nice if Davos shows up in time for the battle of WF with one of Ned Starks male heirs as well as Shaggy Dog ripping Bolton throats!

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Do we know who commands the Manderly forces? It obviously isn't Lord Too-Fat-to-Sit-a-Horse (who could already be dead anyway from the wound given to him by Rhaegar for all we know). But who would have the command, and would they know to turn cloak to Stannis? I know tempers are Freyed (har! see what I did?) but would this push the White Harbour men to attack the Freys alone? Or do they wait for the signal of their commander, who in turn is trusted by Wyman?


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Do we know who commands the Manderly forces? It obviously isn't Lord Too-Fat-to-Sit-a-Horse (who could already be dead anyway from the wound given to him by Rhaegar for all we know). But who would have the command, and would they know to turn cloak to Stannis? I know tempers are Freyed (har! see what I did?) but would this push the White Harbour men to attack the Freys alone? Or do they wait for the signal of their commander, who in turn is trusted by Wyman?

I believe there was a nephew of Lord Manderley that was captain of the guard. I think he leads the Manderley troops (let's hope that our Lord Manderley isn't dead yet).

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Thanks for the welcome!

So it seems pretty much universally agreed

Ramsay wrote the letter based on Stannis deception

Stannis is alive

Manse is alive but caged

Manderlay will turn cloak to Stannis

It's far from universally agreed. (You will probably find that on this board nothing is universally agreed upon)

There are several interesting threads on the subject. Here is one that is particularly interesting (even though I don't agree with it) because it speculates that Asha wrote the letter:

http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/topic/89103-asha-wrote-the-bastard-letter-theon-i-twow-spoilers/

I'm sure you can find others with the search function or a google search.

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It's far from universally agreed. (You will probably find that on this board nothing is universally agreed upon)

There are several interesting threads on the subject. Here is one that is particularly interesting (even though I don't agree with it) because it speculates that Asha wrote the letter:

http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/topic/89103-asha-wrote-the-bastard-letter-theon-i-twow-spoilers/

I'm sure you can find others with the search function or a google search.

thanks, i will

Yeah, i guess saying "universally agreed" on a message board was a mistake. LOL

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  • 2 weeks later...

Since there was some talk about Theon's long-term future earlier in the thread...

I've thought about Theon's future before TWoW, and... while his returning to the Islands is a possibility, I don't think he could rule them, not anymore. He can't continue the Greyjoy bloodline (Asha is the only chance of that happening), he's too weak at this point, and he's just an all-round noob. Whether he'll be a better person is debatable.

People say that Theon is too broken to live as a person, but I don't think so. He made it through hell and back, and still managed to save a girl, remember his name, and mostly keep his sanity.

He might be better suited for assisting rather than leading. At best, Theon would have some high position in the top ranks of the Ironborn, but he wouldn't rule. Asha would be the one to rule, and Theon could be her hand, so to speak. He might make a good master-at-arms, or at least when it comes to training archers. And if Asha has a child, he'll be a nuncle :)

Or maybe, at first, he won't want anything to do with that stuff and he'll just hide away with his mother in a peaceful environment, until she dies or he regains his mental and physical strength. I dunno, it's hard to know exactly what Theon will want out of his life at this point.

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  • 2 weeks later...

Hi, my first post here.. and i didn't read a lot of posts.



So i'm sorry if i am repeating someone thread.. But i have to ask:



How Mardely would turn cloak to Stannis? Stannis would make a deal with Manderly by letter? i just don't got it.


When Manderly and Stannis had this conversation ? I thought that the only chance Stannis had to bring Manderly forces to him is by bringing Rickon back, but still, Stannis don't know about the Onion Knight looking for Rickon.



Does anybody know answer me this ?


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Hi, my first post here.. and i didn't read a lot of posts.

So i'm sorry if i am repeating someone thread.. But i have to ask:

How Mardely would turn cloak to Stannis? Stannis would make a deal with Manderly by letter? i just don't got it.

When Manderly and Stannis had this conversation ? I thought that the only chance Stannis had to bring Manderly forces to him is by bringing Rickon back, but still, Stannis don't know about the Onion Knight looking for Rickon.

Does anybody know answer me this ?

Manderlys forces were sent out of Winterfell to go fight Stannis, the general thinking is that someone will simply hold up a white flag and ask to talk, or visibly attack the Freys. There is also much speculation that Manderly was informed via trumpet or via hooded man that Rickon has been found. If this is true I sure hope we get retroactive Davos chapters.

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Hi, my first post here.. and i didn't read a lot of posts.

So i'm sorry if i am repeating someone thread.. But i have to ask:

How Mardely would turn cloak to Stannis? Stannis would make a deal with Manderly by letter? i just don't got it.

When Manderly and Stannis had this conversation ? I thought that the only chance Stannis had to bring Manderly forces to him is by bringing Rickon back, but still, Stannis don't know about the Onion Knight looking for Rickon.

Does anybody know answer me this ?

Also, It is a general assumption, that Manderlay wouldnt attack Stannis based on his conversation with Davos. Rikon or no, it would be pretty shitty for him to talk the talk to Davos then not walk the walk when it mattered.

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Manderlys forces were sent out of Winterfell to go fight Stannis, the general thinking is that someone will simply hold up a white flag and ask to talk, or visibly attack the Freys. There is also much speculation that Manderly was informed via trumpet or via hooded man that Rickon has been found. If this is true I sure hope we get retroactive Davos chapters.

Hum.. it may be hard to rise a white flag to talk..

Stannis don't even know that Davos is alive. Maybe he will send a scout , and this scout will talk.

Or maybe they will start killing freys before meeting Stannis. But if Stannis gets the information that Davos is alive and looking for Rickon, because Rickon and Bran still alive, he will have no more reason to kill Theon (for this crime).

If you seem the 3rd season last episode, you will se that Asha is really determinated to save Theon, Maybe we will see this happen in the books, i just don't know her plans, but looks like she have one, the thing that she said to kill him, so cold, on the weirwood tree.. What's she's expecting? She couldn't know that Bran would do something about this.. Maybe warg an animal and do something weird before the execution, or warging in someone, but who could believe ? I don't know, there is something missing here.

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There's the possibility of an Umber communication going on. Whoresbane was once going to be a maester, and since Last Hearth doesn't have a maester, he is suspected to be doing that task. With access to Luwin's ravens, he may be sending/receiving messages (keeping his literacy hidden by using a mark, rather then signing his name to letters). Crowfood found Theon and "Arya" a little too quickly for that not to be part of a planned escape.


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Hum.. it may be hard to rise a white flag to talk..

Stannis don't even know that Davos is alive. Maybe he will send a scout , and this scout will talk.

Or maybe they will start killing freys before meeting Stannis. But if Stannis gets the information that Davos is alive and looking for Rickon, because Rickon and Bran still alive, he will have no more reason to kill Theon (for this crime).

If you seem the 3rd season last episode, you will se that Asha is really determinated to save Theon, Maybe we will see this happen in the books, i just don't know her plans, but looks like she have one, the thing that she said to kill him, so cold, on the weirwood tree.. What's she's expecting? She couldn't know that Bran would do something about this.. Maybe warg an animal and do something weird before the execution, or warging in someone, but who could believe ? I don't know, there is something missing here.

Well there could be a few things going on with Asha. First, during one of her POV chapters she see's the cannibals being burned alive, she comments to herself that the 1 who insulted a guy until he killed him with his sword was smart because he basically tricked the guy into killing him quickly rather than being burnt alive. This leads us to believe that if nothing else, Asha may simply prefer her brother to have a quick beheading than being burnt alive. A beheaded body could also be dumped in the lake afterwards to be with the drowned god, tho Asha has shown no particular piety, people often become religious when their own family members die. The other side of the coin is that we may be working with incomplete info on what Asha knows. There seem to be gaps, where she talked to a clansmen, where she was talking to the Mormont women, its possible bran somehow spoke to her, people have speculated a lot on this topic.

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If this plays out like I think it will, we'll get to see Stannis in full tactical mode.

Here's how I see it playing out (and I'm sorry, but I didn't read through all 1600+ posts so apologies if I plagarize someone).

Stannis knows that approximately half of Bolton's force is on their way to him, with the other half holed up in Winterfell. He's uncovered Karstark's betrayal and has the two ravens that are trained to fly to Winterfell. He smashes the Freys, most likely with the help of Manderley's forces, and sends word by raven of victory and conspires with Manderley for Manderley to return with "proof" of Stannis' death, which perhaps explains the "7 days of battle" in the letter. In addition to proof, Manderly also returns with word that Arya Stark and Reek had been sent on to the Wall for protection. This is when Ramsay sends the letter to Castle Black. Most likely Manderley's forces will have been "decimated" (while in reality most of them joined Stannis' forces) so the Boltons know they will have to march on the Wall to get back Arya/Jeyne, since she's their only legitimate claim to Winterfell and there is no chance the Lord Commander will return her to them.

Meanwhile, Stannis' and Manderley's forces march up the Kingsroad to Winterfell and take the now lightly guarded castle, trapping Bolton's forces between Winterfell and the Wall.

I think the key piece of evidence is that Ramsay asks for Reek. If Stannis truly had been defeated, then Ramsay would have had Theon, since Stannis certainly wasn't going to release him, or at the least, Ramsay would have found out that Theon had been executed. The Boltons and Freys are about to receive their comeuppance.

This is exactly what I thought and was going to post... thanks for saving me the time/effort haha

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  • 2 weeks later...
  • 3 weeks later...

Wheewwww, just read every single post. That's a solid accomplishment over two days of work, right?



A lot to digest and a lot of great discussion so huzzah to every one.



I'll start by saying that I think Veltigar has the right of it, not to jump on the bandwagon or anything.



Also, The Great Unwashed brought up a great point I hadn't considered in that Jeyne is the key to the Bolton's claim. Her missing, and "going to the wall," is probably the only thing that would draw them out. Then getting pincer-ed between the wall and Stannis/Manderly is just great.



Now for a contribution. I don't think Ramsay makes it past Winds, but Roose will. He's always been the larger, looming threat. As for where Roose is, I would like to ask a question to this thread.



Sadly, Bran Vras isn't on these forums anymore, but he left some great contributions. This being one of my favorites about how Roose may have been sacrificing his sons to the Others a la Craster. So my question is this - Is there any way Roose could be headed to the wall? Let me be clear, I'm not postulating he is. Just want to see if you all think it's possible.



I understand and respect that as Warden of the North, Roose's seat and power base is Winterfell. But what if Roose knows as well as Stannis and Jon what threat the Others pose and instead of wanting to prevent their ascension, has taken steps to ensure it? We've seen characters realize the parochial nature of fighting for the iron throne and rise above it for the good of the realm. I think it would be a nice compliment to get a character to do so to the detriment of the realm.


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I guess Roose could be doing that, also he could be the Great Other too. I just don't see it though. So far all his actions have been to better his position. Why do this if he is trying to bring the others? He weakened the north but pretty much made the south stronger. I could see him headed to the wall though with ramsey for jeyne and reek, and to destroy the rest of stanis army and the last stark that he knows about. would be nice if he got caught between the watch and stannis.


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