[TWoW Spoilers] Theon I, Part 5

[slayer420]

We haven't heard for davos in quite awhile he had plenty of time to go get rickon and make it to winterfell

[alienarea]

I have posted it in an earlier iteration of the thread, but that was some time ago:

To me the seven days of battle in the pink letter refer to the information that comes to the Boltons from the Karstark maester saying Stannis is camped three days from Winterfell. Three days to get there, one day of battle (IIRC all battles in ASoIaF last one day), three days to get back. This implies the pink letter was sent from Winterfell by someone who can do the math and likes to brag a little.

It won't go as easy for Stannis as some of you assume. The Manderlys aren't lead by Wyman, and whoever leads them probably doesn't know Davos was not executed.

And I have a gut feeling that there will be an unexpected turn when Stannis executes Theon - Stannis and Asha might die.

Theon will live long enough to kill Ramsay with a gray goose arrow in the back. As it should have been some time ago.

[sertravisredbeard]

I think any Manderly force wil be led by Wyman's cousin, Marlon. He asked Davos some pretty insightful questions at White Harbor, but he isn't mentioned being in Winterfell because there are no hostages with Wyman. He or Robett Glover can show up to command the army Manderly sends out. Robett could also be around, and some of the Northeners will recognize him, which will make it easier to convince Stannis that the Manderlys are truly on his side for the upcoming battle.

[mushroomshirt]

I think any Manderly force wil be led by Wyman's cousin, Marlon. He asked Davos some pretty insightful questions at White Harbor, but he isn't mentioned being in Winterfell because there are no hostages with Wyman. He or Robett Glover can show up to command the army Manderly sends out. Robett could also be around, and some of the Northeners will recognize him, which will make it easier to convince Stannis that the Manderlys are truly on his side for the upcoming battle.

Perhaps Robett is the Hooded Man who Theon meets and has come to meet Manderly in WF to coordinate just such a plan!

[Ducky Reed]

The way I read ADWD it seemed very clear to me that Manderly had no intention to aid Roose and was biding his time until he could take revenge against the Freys. I don't think he cares much about Stannis but he cares a whole hell of a lot about his dead son and, to me, seems under the impression that "the enemy of my enemy is my friend."

As for Stannis writing the letter I am highly doubtful. He's a rigid hard-ass, not a trickster. If he wanted something from Jon he would demand it or try to bend his arm in some way to get it. That is a very different thing from a lie.

Editted for typos.

[sertravisredbeard]

I think the letter writer could be the victors of the Battle of Ice; Stannis and Manderly. I've skimmed this thread but don't remember if this motivation has been floated before: after the victory, Manderly has presented Rickon along with Davos. I know when he told his plan to Davos, Wyman said that the wolf would be all he needed to prove Rickon's authenticty. But it's possible Stannis still doesn't believe him, and decidest that the only way to prove that Rickon is who Manderly says he is is by bringing his brother to Winterfell. As far as why he doesn't just say that, Stannis has already tried to get Jon to come south a few times, so he decides to trick him into showing up to save his little sister after Mance is supposedly captured.

This is just another crackpot theory though. That letter sure pumped up Jon, and I was just brainstorming motivations for it. Baiting Jon into showing up to prove Rickon is a Stark is a possibility.

[aryagonnakill#2]

I think the letter writer could be the victors of the Battle of Ice; Stannis and Manderly. I've skimmed this thread but don't remember if this motivation has been floated before: after the victory, Manderly has presented Rickon along with Davos. I know when he told his plan to Davos, Wyman said that the wolf would be all he needed to prove Rickon's authenticty. But it's possible Stannis still doesn't believe him, and decidest that the only way to prove that Rickon is who Manderly says he is is by bringing his brother to Winterfell. As far as why he doesn't just say that, Stannis has already tried to get Jon to come south a few times, so he decides to trick him into showing up to save his little sister after Mance is supposedly captured.

This is just another crackpot theory though. That letter sure pumped up Jon, and I was just brainstorming motivations for it. Baiting Jon into showing up to prove Rickon is a Stark is a possibility.

Stannis asked Jon to take Winterfell... not meet him half way down the kingsroad to confirm Rickons identity, whom Jon would obviously love to see alive. I recognize that you say this is a crackpot theory, and I am not dismissing Stannis entirely, but I think that motivation does not make sense.

[Iced]

Not sure if I stole this idea from the forums or from conversations with friends but...

Stannis indicates that he has the upper hand in an impending battle. " We hold the ground...". When Theon questions him he says,"What ground?... [there are] no natural defenses."

To this Stannis replies "Yet."

There is only one natural defense and that is the lake. They have cut holes in the ice to fish through and turned it into swiss cheese. With a fresh snow fall however those holes would be imperceptible and as soon as Bolton forces marched across it to meet Stannis's army they would fall through. A well timed fire/explosion/anything-really could set off a chain reaction and swallow all their troops at once after they were all atop the ice.

I think Stannis will provoke the Boltons to attack by sending word with the ravens and possibly by letting it slip that he has Reek and that the Karstarks have turned cloak to Stannis's side.

This was mentioned a long time ago on page 2. I think there may be a bit of foreshadowing of this happening right before Stannis mentions that he will use the ground to his advantage.

"The king gave the bird an irritated look. "That Braavosi banker claimed Ser Aenys Frey is dead. Did some boy do that?"

"Twenty green boys, with spades," Theon told him. "The snow fell heavily for days. So heavily that you could not see the castle walls ten yards away, no more than the men up on the battlements could see what was happening beyond those walls. So Crowfood set his boys to digging pits outside the castle gates, then blew his horn to lure Lord Bolton out. Instead he got the Freys. The snow had covered up the pits, so they rode right into them. Aenys broke his neck, I heard, but Ser Hosteen only lost a horse, more's the pity. He will be angry now.""

Crowfood already used a tactic similar to this on a smaller scale to some effect (the death of Aenys Frey). It is early winter so the ice on the lake is probably not too thick yet. If Stannis does this it would be an amazing tactic and a great scene in the book. The fact that its the Freys who fall for this trick the first time may be foreshadowing that its their forces who will fall through the lake.

[The Crow's Third Eye]

I was rereading Arya in Harenhal the other day and noticed that Ser Aenys is actually the one who is described as not very clever. So why is it ser Hosteen that is described as Ser Stupid?

[aryagonnakill#2]

I was rereading Arya in Harenhal the other day and noticed that Ser Aenys is actually the one who is described as not very clever. So why is it ser Hosteen that is described as Ser Stupid?

Stupidity among Freys is relative.

[MtnLion]

Stupidity among Freys is relative.

All freys are relative. :P

[st3]

I didn't read every comment in here (though I have read a number of them) and wanted to address the authorship of the Pink Letter from a logical point of view to clear some things up. There are a number of theories and arguments to be made, but I'm going to approach them from a strictly motivational perspective and hopefully a logical one. I won't really address how this impacts Jon after his stabbing or presume he's alive, since there is already enough information in this post to begin with.

So there are really four primary camps who could have possible wrote the Pink Letter. In the interest of logic, I've coupled a few possible culprits into one concrete argument since I generally reject the notions that Roose would bail out on Ramsey his Warden of the North deal nor do I think Asha and Theon (both prisoners) really could have independently conspired this letter. In addition to that, the ultimate motives are the same for the aforementioned groupings (Ramsey and Roose wanting to hold power in the North, Asha and Theon wanting to get out of dodge and possibly back to Pyke). I'm less interested in the logistics as I am the motive, since so many acts occur between the pages. Martin can explain away backdoor dealings later if he needs to, but he's less inclined to explain away motive when he can properly foreshadow it.

So the four possible culprits are Asha/Theon, Roose/Ramsey, Stannis, Mance.

Asha/Theon Argument
Situation: Both the Greyjoys are currently prisoners of Stannis, with Theon just escaping an extended stay in Hotel Dreadfort. It's clear from the WoW chapter that Theon fears Ramsey much more than Stannis and even death, and it's suggested that he doesn't believe Stannis has enough men nor the geographic advantage to win. In addition to that, Asha is really out of cards to play to save her brother. She tried fighting to save him and was captured. She tried buying his freedom and was rejected. She even pleaded for a clean execution and was denied. She's a valuable chip to Stannis, but by no means more valuable to his hold in the North than his impending execution of Theon Turncloak. So both are pretty much at the mercy of Stannis, either in his rule and in his possible defeat.

Motive: For Theon it's obvious, anything to keep him from the hands of Ramsey is worth trying. Same might be for Asha, as a prisoner of Stannis is much more desirable than a prisoner of the Bolton's. Also, Theon knows the family dynamic of the Starks better than anyone in the North right now and would realize if there is one person Jon Snow would ride in to save, it's Arya. Never mind the fact that he knows it isn't really Arya because Jon marching on Winterfell in force is enough. Either Jon would kill him to avenge Bran and Rickon or expose the Bolton's imposter Arya. Either fate is better than returning to Ramsey or being burned alive by Stannis. And again for Asha, returning to Pike is second to saving Theon. She may figure the worst case is Jon rides south and in the midst of a massive battle, she can help Theon escape and run for it.

Argument Against: I know I said I wouldn't discuss logistics, but does anyone honestly think that two Iron Born prisoners, one of which has the surname Turncloak, would be left alone long enough and free enough, to write a letter to the Wall without anyone knowing? Stannis is no fool. Theon will stay in chains until Stannis has a use for him. And Asha will be closely guarded. If any of Stannis's banner men wonder how their king punishes the slightest fault, they should ask Davos to see his fingers.

Also, the best case scenario for these two is still pretty grim. Neither are really fools and if Asha is already at the point of pleading for Stannis to execute Theon mercifully, I doubt she's got much hope for an escape attempt for those two. And there is an even less likely chance they are currently in a position to negotiate a truce with Stannis and the North. They're just pawns right now, with big plays to come later.

Roose/Ramsey Argument
Situation: Things aren't going great for the Bolton/Frey alliance but Roose is no dummy. As I said above, I don't think the notion he's dead or fled to the Dreadfort is really likely since he's in a better position here to win than we all might acknowledge (we want Stannis to win, but if you look at the facts it's certainly uphill). He's sent the Frey and Manderly forces out into the snow so they can either kill Stannis or one another, both he feels would benefit him since he assumes the murders are Manderley's doing and the Frey's evoke noticeable disdain among the Northern houses. However with Theon and fake Arya escaping, his lynch pin to the Northern loyalty is gone and extremely vulnerable if Jon Snow finds out. To make matters worse, his son Ramsey is (ironically) the kind of fool who rushes in.

Motive: I've seen the arguments that Ramsey cold and calculated, which is certainly the case sometimes, but does anyone else remember how he freaked out when Roose took his "Reek" away so he could present him to the Northern lords? Ramsey is a bully and a terrifying one at that, but the only thing keeping him in check right now is Roose. With the situation growing more and more dire, isn't not unreasonable to believe Ramsay threatened the Night's Watch with an impulsive letter. But there is a more likely outcome... As mentioned in an essay, Jon has intervened in a Karstark marriage and instead wed the girl (and Karhold) to a wildling while imprisoning a Bolton man. He's helped Stannis win men to his cause and cautioned him against marching on the Dreadfort. If even half of the letter is true (Mance a captive or Stannis dead), the Bolton's will probably have learned this.

So isn't it much more likely that the Bolton's were told or simply guessed that Theon and Arya fled to the wall for protection rather than to Stannis and his presumed doomed war camp? They know Arya is a fake but more importantly Theon knows she's a fake. What better way to get revenge on the Bolton's than to bring their false bride to the one Stark remaining who could prove it? And it's really hard to argue against the fact that the letter is written so in line with Ramsey's demeanor.

More than likely if it is truly a Bolton letter, I think it played out like this:
Forces returning to Winterfell claiming Stannis is dead (Manderley, Karstark triple cross, or Stannis actually dead)... No sign of Arya and Theon, suggested they fled to the wall... Interrogate the spearwife left behind in Arya's place, Mance gives himself up to save her... Ramsay wants to march on the wall, but Roose knows to declare war on the Night's Watch is blasphemy to many Northern houses, so he instead suggests they make demands to return her... Ramsay writes this letter in his fashion, again abiding his father's request but in his own way.

Argument Against:
Martin has already asked if we really think Mance is dead. If that isn't a clue, I don't know what is. Not only is Mance a ruthless tactician, but he's no hero. The knowledge of Mance is the single biggest hole in the argument for the Bolton's. His inclusion in the letter feels creatively designed to be a cliffhanger to a book, something we all talk about because of its ambiguous nature and endless outcomes. You can argue for the smeared wax and the WoW chapter showing Stannis is still alive all you want, but until someone provides a way the Bolton's learned of Mance's presence without killing or chaining him, the Bolton argument will be flawed.

Stannis Argument:
Situation: Stannis is clearly in the worst position at the moment. While an excellent tactician himself, marching through terrible storms with no supplies and significantly less men, he's really not likely to win this Battle of Winter. The Frey's and White Harbor men are marching on him as well, though he did intercept the Karstark plot and possibly could have won the common Karstark men to his cause by sparing them. He needs more men, he needs a Stark in Winterfell (he doesn't know about Davos or Rickon right now), and he needs to move quickly. He definitely is making a play on the frozen lake, but that doesn't seize Winterfell for him.

I should also point out that the theory of the White Harbor men turning cloak is pretty flawed. Stannis thinks they beheaded Davos and so do most of the commoners in White Harbor. How many people realistically know Wyman's backdoor deal with Davos? Beyond that, there have been no indications that Davos has succeeded or failed. Until then, they'll continue to be hostile toward the Frey's but it's seriously unlikely they'll make such a bold move as to join Stannis (assuming he'd have them) without having Rickon handy. His Trojan Horse plan is much more likely to be executed by Karstark men than White Harbor, but that is again just a presumption.

Motive: Stannis unsuccessfully tried to get Jon to leave the Night's Watch and become Lord of Winterfell to win over the North. He tried to enlist many of the Wildlings to help his attack on Winterfell, but abandoned that after Jon wisely counseled against it. He also has a Karstark maester with him who may have Bolton ink and would likely know all of the details in the letter, assuming Mel informed him of the Mance plot. He knows Jon's temper based on the time they spent together on the wall, so if deception is his game he'd likely provoke Jon, rather than plead to him.

It's also quite telling when he tells Massey that "you may hear I'm dead and it may well be true" in the WoW. The primary possibility in his sentence is you hear he's dead, with the reality of it being second. If Stannis had the letter forged, this would be the biggest clue given. The bottom line is he needs more men. He needs supplies. He needs an army to march to his cause and Jon's is the only one available. Stannis would do everything in his power to win the Iron Throne and that means tricking Jon into helping him, so be it.

Argument Against: I did say would, not could. The problem with Stannis writing the letter is he is by no means a charismatic player in the Game of Thrones. Again, if you're unsure of his politics and views on the world, ask Davos's fingers. Also, the WoW chapter doesn't really show Stannis in much of a panic mode. He's very calm and looks to be completely in control of this battle, unlike the Bolton's who have a new murder every night, a crazed bastard wanting his torture toy and wife back, and almost every Northern house remembering the Red Wedding, with varying degrees of skepticism toward the Freys and Boltons.

And as for his allusion to being dead, the Trojan Horse plan would account for warning of that possibility, which would point to Ramsey/Roose for the author. Regardless, I think Stannis is hedging his bets with the Karstark men, spare their lives and have them march on Winterfell. Then they can either Trojan Horse them and be let in the front or Theon may know a way into Winterfell that others do not, so while the Karstarks march up to the front, Stannis flanks to the rear. This is all of course assuming the Frey's fall in the lake or the Manderley's simply attack the Frey's, which may be enough proof for Stannis to let them join. There are tons of possibilities there, but I don't think any of them realistically include Stannis forging a letter to deceive Jon into helping him.

Mance Argument:
Situation: Depends on who you believe really. He might be in a cage keeping warm with the skins of his spear wives. Or he might be dead. Or he might still be hanging out in Winterfell, if the Bolton's aren't the authors. Either way, Mance is sent on this mission by Mel and Jon to save Arya. He intercepts Theon and has a long and telling conversation with him. In addition to that, the former King-Beyond-the-Wall has gotten his people on the correct side of it, albeit not as planned. His people are basically under the rule of the Night's Watch, his former alma mater. So what is really the likely ending for Mance if he succeeds in this mission? He can never walk freely among his people (since they think he's dead) and if he does the Night's Watch, and probably Stannis, will want to execute him for being a deserter and a turncloak (public enemy #2 in the eyes of the North behind Theon).

Motive: Mance knows all the information in the letter. He was being held by Mel for a few weeks and probably discussed the Others with her at great length (we all know how much Mel likes to talk about Stannis's magic sword don't we?). He's infiltrated Winterfell for the second time we know of now and is the one who orchestrated Theon's escape with Arya. Jon sent him to save his sister and he knows how true and noble Jon Snow is, remember when he swore allegiance to Mance (because he was seated at the bastard table at the very beginning of A Game of Thrones)? Jon turned his cloak and ruined Mance's attack from the inside. He then held the wall against the Wildling army until Stannis smashed them to the wind. The wildlings ultimately made it to the other side of the wall, sure, but Mance's life is pretty destroyed at this point. He's lost his army and his people, he's lost his position as king, and the man who ruined his attack is now a beloved figure in his place since he's "dead."

More importantly, Mance is the only candidate charismatic enough to write a fraudulent letter. He rallied dozens of tribes who hate one another to join together and march south. He's an intelligent man who knows how to make Jon tick (titling the letter "bastard"), especially when it comes to being heroic. He knows how much Arya means to Jon, since Lord Commander Snow approved of releasing the single greatest threat to holding the Wildling loyalty in the hopes of freeing his sister from a Bolton marriage. And what would happen if the letter succeeded and Jon marched south? Well, I think we saw the most likely outcome to that, but should Jon convince the whole of the Watch to break their vows and intervene, he'd march with a Wildling army at his back. Who do you think they'd rally to when their King-Beyond-the-Wall returns from the dead? Or if they simply get wind of the letter and learn he's not only alive, but in grave danger?

Mance makes the most sense because he's got a clear motive and a secondary outcome that would still benefit him of writing the letter. He has a legitimate reason for hating Jon and knows enough of the Night's Watch vows (and the men who rule with Jon) to roll the dice on this move. He has all the needed information to cause a panic at the Wall and just about any response will benefit him in some way, whether the Wildlings march south or Jon is murdered. Not to mention his inclusion in the letter is a clear way of screaming to the world that he is alive. Combine all this with Martin's hint about Mance being dead and I think there is a strong enough case here.

Argument Against: Very little in fact. He could've easily gotten the wax and a bird through one of his many infiltrators (or Theon prior to departing). Like many of the other theories, his knowledge of Arya being fake or not would be irrelevant because continuing the ruse would only benefit his play here. The one skeptical part could be knowing about Reek and Ramsey's temperament since we don’t know just how much of closed door Ramsey he's seen (open door Ramsey being the behaved one, with Roose looking over his shoulder). So he'd have to learn a great deal from Theon AND see Ramsey's impulsive nature to write a letter as carefully crafted and convincing as this. Then again he is the King-Beyond-the-Wall who infiltrated Winterfell right under the nose of Ned and King Robert, so his stealth is tough to question.

Conclusion:
I just can't see them opening WoW with Mance back in a cage, broken and beaten. We've already got a pathetic character to follow in Theon, we don't need to see Mance that way. He brings a charisma to the table that Stannis lacks, he has a loyal army which Asha and Theon lack, and he has the most to gain. He has the capability, the motive, and is smart enough to not be a hero here, which in George's world is more than enough to get ahead.

Based on the final Jon chapter and the WoW Theon chapter, I speculate it will play out like this: Mance wrote the letter to bring help and return to his position as King-Beyond-the-Wall... After Jon's stabbing there is a battle at Castle Black between Wildlings / Queens Men / Crows, with the Queens Men possibly joining the Wildlings to march south to save Mance... Meanwhile Stannis pulls his Trojan Horse maneuver with the Karstarks proving their loyalty... This happens after most of the Frey's drown in the lake and the rest are massacred by White Harbor men, who Stannis let's march home (sort of a "we'll deal with you later" view)... The Umbers join Stannis inside the walls and the Boltons are defeated by Stannis, Umbers, Karstarks, Queens Men, and Wildlings coming south with Tormund... Roose and/or Ramsey doesn't turn up (more likely Ramsey) and is found in the crypts of Winterfell by Theon, who Stannis instructs to show his men every possible hiding spot (remember he noticed there were swords missing in the crypts, I think he realized how Bran and Rickon escaped)... Word reaches Stannis of Jon's murder and as they head north, it's too late because the Others are already there... We all wait 10 years for a Dream of Spring.

[Red Raven]

I think Ramsay did write the pink letter, but he did so based on deliberate misinformation Stannis sent using the Karstark ravens in order to set up Ramsay for an ambush.

I think Mance is in a cage and his spearwives are dead and most of the rest is true, however the report Ramsay received of Stannis's death and defeat is false. Stannis made that up himself and probably sent an envoy/spy to Ramsay with his sword (or a sword) as "proof." As for the heads on Winterfell's walls, Stannis could have sent the heads of soldiers who were were loyal to him that were killed in battle.

Ramsay probably thinks his troops are celebrating in the crofter's village when they're actually at the bottom of the swiss cheese frozen lakes.

Stannis wouldn't call himself a "false king" even for a ruse. He would never budge on that point.

IIRC in Stannis's last letter to Jon he said he needed him at the wall.

[mrlukeduke]

I concur. I really want to know what heads he has on spikes and how that whole thing played out, where/how Manderley is etc.

[Tini]

I think Ramsay did write the pink letter, but he did so based on deliberate misinformation Stannis sent using the Karstark ravens in order to set up Ramsay for an ambush.

I think Mance is in a cage and his spearwives are dead and most of the rest is true, however the report Ramsay received of Stannis's death and defeat is false. Stannis made that up himself and probably sent an envoy/spy to Ramsay with his sword (or a sword) as "proof." As for the heads on Winterfell's walls, Stannis could have sent the heads of soldiers who were were loyal to him that were killed in battle.

Ramsay probably thinks his troops are celebrating in the crofter's village when they're actually at the bottom of the swiss cheese frozen lakes.

Stannis wouldn't call himself a "false king" even for a ruse. He would never budge on that point.

IIRC in Stannis's last letter to Jon he said he needed him at the wall.

I totally agree.

And I am equally sure that Stannis has no idea that news of his defeat / death at Winterfell would reach the Wall before he reaches Winterfell, creating havoc in its wake. The pink letter precipitated events at the Wall.

It weakened Jon who had been compromising the Watch's neutrality by backing Stannis, and news of Stannis' death spurred Jon into action on the wrong side of the Wall - when (as far as the Watch were concerned) he should've been looking to make peace with living Westerosi nobility instead. After all, he had just lost his ally with claims to the Iron Throne.

Stannis may have hope of taking the throne, and he seems willing to support the Watch. People are willing to follow him. Shireen's a different case. She may be Stannis heir, but if he dies now she is left with nothing. The wildlings barely tolerate the Grayscale-infected girl, and her very presence is a liability for the Watch.

[Roger-Snow]

Where is it possable to read these chapters? you all seem to have read about 5 WoW chapters and i cant find any? please help.

[mushroomshirt]

Where is it possable to read these chapters? you all seem to have read about 5 WoW chapters and i cant find any? please help.

Arianne chapter is here: http://www.georgerrmartin.com/excerpt-from-the-winds-of-winter/

GRRM took down the Theon chapter when he put up the Arianne one. It's a real shame because the Theon sample chapter was amazing.

Barristan chapter can be found at the end of the paperback version of Dance.

There were also parts of one or two Tyrion chapters read at conventions, summaries of them can be found on this site (use search).

IIRC parts of a Vic chapter were also read & summaries can be found here, too.

[The Crow's Third Eye]

http://www.scribd.com/doc/110606135/The-Winds-of-Winter-all-sample-chapters

This contains Theon, Victarion and and Arriane synopsis. It may also have a synopsis of Tyrion and Barristan but i dont remember and the link isnt working on my phone

[Red Raven]

Here's a link to the Theon chapter.

http://www.ign.com/boards/threads/sample-chapter-from-winds-of-winter.207815997/

[KingOfTheAshes]

Dunno if its been said/asked but, Stannis is unaware of Manderlys plan to join him, right? So why do we all so easily assume Stannis accepts them rather than think it might be a ploy on him