[TWoW Spoilers] Theon I, Part 5

[WithPointyEnd]

You might think because Freys and Manderlys hate each other they will be separate in the field.However,Freys&Ramsay do not trust them so they will probably keep them close during the attack.Or maybe Aenys would do that,but for Hosteen I don't know.I think Stannis'll give Ramsay a decisive maybe crushing defeat in the field,you can smell it from the Theon chapter like raven screaming "Yet." or Stannis neutralizing Karstarks but I don't see him taking the castle without not just Manderly but other northmen like Umbers etc supporting him

[bemused]

I'm not sure Manderly's men are not already separate from the Freys. They went out different gates , and we've only heard of the Freys running into booby traps. We don't know whether Roose gave them instructions for a 2 pronged attack Aenys is dead, Hosteen's horse had to be put down. We don't know what other damage the freys suffered..they would have needed some time ,at least, to reassemble.

They could reach Stannis some time before the Freys, or if they had to hold up and wait for Hosteen , there would have been time to send a scout ahead with word of their planned defection.

I think all the Northmen and Stannis will be on the same side against the Boltons.

[CrypticWeirwood]

They're certainly not behaving very nicely but the existence of a Stark in Winterfell has nothing to do with the laws of hospitality.

No, it’s so the Wall doesn’t fall to the Others.

[bemused]

Cryptic Weirwood.. Yes! I certainly think the two are connected... I only started visiting here in the fall after the book came out, so I missed all the early discussion ..but after months of wrapping and re-wrapping my brain around this I have to think that it must be important to the struggle..Starks are important to the struggle , and their talents will be needed in key positions, one of which is WF..built by a Stark ( Bran the Builder), for the Starks .. it's pretty unlikely that he wouldn't have employed some magical elements , as he did at the wall..probably keyed to Starks..as the gate under the Nightfort is keyed to NW brothers.

[InnocuousOldBear]

If this plays out like I think it will, we'll get to see Stannis in full tactical mode.

Here's how I see it playing out (and I'm sorry, but I didn't read through all 1600+ posts so apologies if I plagarize someone).

Stannis knows that approximately half of Bolton's force is on their way to him, with the other half holed up in Winterfell. He's uncovered Karstark's betrayal and has the two ravens that are trained to fly to Winterfell. He smashes the Freys, most likely with the help of Manderley's forces, and sends word by raven of victory and conspires with Manderley for Manderley to return with "proof" of Stannis' death, which perhaps explains the "7 days of battle" in the letter. In addition to proof, Manderly also returns with word that Arya Stark and Reek had been sent on to the Wall for protection. This is when Ramsay sends the letter to Castle Black. Most likely Manderley's forces will have been "decimated" (while in reality most of them joined Stannis' forces) so the Boltons know they will have to march on the Wall to get back Arya/Jeyne, since she's their only legitimate claim to Winterfell and there is no chance the Lord Commander will return her to them.

Meanwhile, Stannis' and Manderley's forces march up the Kingsroad to Winterfell and take the now lightly guarded castle, trapping Bolton's forces between Winterfell and the Wall.

I think the key piece of evidence is that Ramsay asks for Reek. If Stannis truly had been defeated, then Ramsay would have had Theon, since Stannis certainly wasn't going to release him, or at the least, Ramsay would have found out that Theon had been executed. The Boltons and Freys are about to receive their comeuppance.

Brilliant! Are you GRR Martin with an annonymous account?

[Lord Tyrion]

Where do we find this spoiler? There's a segment out?

[Lpearce7]

Why couldn't Theon have woken up 30 minutes earlier so we could have heard the deal b/w Stannis and Tycho......................

[Lpearce7]

The timeline is confusing me.

First in Asha's "The Sacrifice" Theon is delivered to Asha at the very end of the chapter along w/ Jeyne after escaping Winterfell. And the Freys and Manderleys left Winterfell in Theon's second to last chapter I believe(not including the gift).

Then in Jon's last chapter in ADwD, he receives the letter from Ramsay saying he has Stannis' sword, and wants Theon and Arya(Jeyne) back. Along w/ all Stannin's family.

Then in Theon's gift chapter( which I thought took place after ADwD), none of that has happened yet. I don't recall seeing "Lightbringer" in Stannis' possession, but I wasn't looking for it then. And I know Stannis was present, so he isn't dead yet. And most of his host is still hanging on. But they haven't been smashed in 7 days of battle.

So am I reading it wrong, or what? I don't understand how Ramsay could write a letter to Jon about smashing Stannis' host when that is physically impossible.

If in fact the letter was sent by Ramsay, then the only explanation is that Ramsay lied about killing Stannis, having his sword, and smashing his host. I'm guessing that Ramsay is trying to trick Jon to leaving the Wall so he can get Arya and Reek back. In the letter, Ramsay says twice: "Stannis' friends heads are on Winterfell's walls, come see." and then again about Mance: "If you want Mance Rayder back, come get him"

It seems like the main point of the letter is to entice Jon off the Wall and to attack WF.

And if indeed the letter is Ramsay's, then he would have easily figured out that Abel was not just a singer the second he found the Spearwives dying to help Theon escape. So that part could easily be known to him. But the other stuff could have easily been made up by Ramsay to further his plans.

Another thing that seemed odd. The beginning of the letter to Jon says: "Your false king is dead." then a few lines down it says "Your false king's friends are dead. Their heads upon the walls of Winterfell." - Why isn't Stannis' head on the walls as well? It seems like Stannis' head would be on the first pike, but it just says he's dead.

I've read some decent theories about who actually sent this letter and why, and it could easily be any of them. Using bastard 5 times in the letter is either Ramsay in a fit of rage after Reek and Jeyne escape, or a forger usuing the word "bastard" several times to make it sound like Ramsay Snow. I can't remember, but in one of Theon's chapters earlier in Dance, he said something like "You must never call him that(bastard)". But I'm not sure if Ramsay uses that word on other people very often. I just can't remember if I've ever heard him call someone a bastard. If he hasn't ever called someone a bastard, then the letter might very well be forged.

[Jolene Brown]

Supposedly the Theon gift chapter is right after Asha's "Sacrifice" chapter and before Jon's last ADWD chapter. That's what I've heard.

Alternatively, Ramsay sent the letter right after Theon escaped and it is all lies, every bit of it. Then it wouldn't matter if the Theon gift chapter came after Jon's last ADWD chapter, because the Battle between Stannis and Ramsay's forces hasn't happened yet in either of them.

If you just google Theon gift chapter you'll find it - it's on George's personal website, I think.

[ser rup]

This was a very exciting chapter, even tho its just a synopsis. Strange how Theon became one of my favorite characters over the course of one book. I always sympathized with him, even while loathing him. But I never liked him til the end of the book.

[Gozluk]

I do not think the letter is forged. It is from Ramsay. He has the dead spearwifes as we know. It is very probable he captured Abel and made him tell who he is & why he is there (Ramsay has his ways you know).

The part about Jeyne, Theon and Stannis, I go with what The Great Unwashed, said on 02 June 2012 - 04:02 AM. (quoted earlier). He has reports saying Stannis is defeated, but that might not be the truth.

My only concern is, this is GRRM we are talking about. So, everything in that letter can be true. Everyone wants the letter to be false & make theories in that way. But GRRM loves to surprise people.

[Azor Azai]

I think the pink letter is 100% true from Ramsey's point of view. He wrote it in an arrogant furor when his "victory" over Stannis, failed to turn up what he really wants, Reek (his favorite toy), and really needs, "Arya" (Until she bears him a son Winterfell is vulnerable). I think he, probably at Roose's suggestion, sent a second raven to the Wall, to Thorne, who then got Marsh and Co to do what they did. "For the Watch" Who knows what the Boltons promised? Food? Help getting rid of the Wildlings? Thorne , of course, is the next LC.

[aryagonnakill]

I think the pink letter is 100% true from Ramsey's point of view. He wrote it in an arrogant furor when his "victory" over Stannis, failed to turn up what he really wants, Reek (his favorite toy), and really needs, "Arya" (Until she bears him a son Winterfell is vulnerable). I think he, probably at Roose's suggestion, sent a second raven to the Wall, to Thorne, who then got Marsh and Co to do what they did. "For the Watch" Who knows what the Boltons promised? Food? Help getting rid of the Wildlings? Thorne , of course, is the next LC.

That's very interesting I never considered a second letter to Thorne/Marsh and his crew, perhaps there was only 1 letter and thats why it was brought to Jon via a random nightswatchmen rather than the maester.

[aryagonnakill]

Alliser Thorne isn't AT the Wall. He went on a ranging on Jon's orders and hasn't been heard from since he left.

I think thats the point, we don't know where he is and the other 2 rangers with him turned up dead.

[SerLoin]

So Thorne is hiding out somewhere at Castle Black without anyone noticing?

One of Thorn'es cronies was in command of East Watch when Jon ordered all the ships to Hardhome. Thorne could have been there or gone over the wall at East Watch to winterfell(some suggest he was the hooded man Theon saw).

[Lord Liam DarkStark]

What about how cersei had planned to have jon snow murdered or the lannisters would take up arms against the watch using roose bolton. I think jon getting involved over the fake arya was his fatal flaw though missing his little sister. Wanting that drop of family if he had it left.

[Lord Liam DarkStark]

I hope melissandre gives jon the kiss of life :( I really wanted him to be lyanna and raeghar's bastard

[arya_underfoot]

jon is dead. he should stay that way, unfortunate as that is.

[aryagonnakill]

Yes, I've seen the suggestion that Thorne is the Hooded Man, which is frankly absurd. Thorne would have no way of knowing Theon on sight and certainly would have no reason to want to kill him.

Thorne returning to the Wall would also mean that he would have had to slip away or kill the 5 remaining black brothers he went on the ranging with, a difficult task because Thorne points out that he's not a ranger. I suspect that Thorne was one of the group of black brothers that Coldhands killed during Bran's POV.

The timeline on that is way off, I know that Dance and Feast overlap making things difficult but the Bran and Jon chapters both take place in Dance, and Coldhands kills those men before Thorne is sent out. I'm not saying Thorne is the hooded man I find that ridiculous too I'm just saying that I think we will see Thorne again, and we do have evidence of Rangers being able to go from being on a ranging north of the wall to being south of the wall, the first two chapters of Game of Thrones, and that guy wasn't an officer.

[Lord Liam DarkStark]

jon is dead. he should stay that way, unfortunate as that is.