[TWoW Spoilers] Theon I, Part 5

[aryagonnakill]

Heh, you are mixing screenplay and canon. In the screenplay Bran gives two orphan boys to the miller before Theon takes Winterfell. The same miller is where Theon finds the two boys, but where is Ramsay in the screenplay? It was Ramsay's idea in canon, and the boys were born of the miller's wife.

very good catch. i was trying to figure out where his confusion came from. for the record i've confused posts on here for stuff in the book, so it happens.

[Loras]

My impression of the incident with Asha suggesting that Stannis beheads Theon is that she doesn't want him to suffer being burnt.

It is VERY clear in her final 'Dance' chapter that she doesn't wish burning on anyone and that she would provoke someone into killing her before she allowed herself to be burnt alive. I don't think she has any motive other than wanting Theon to have a quick death.

If there was any other motive then her final chapter in 'Dance' wouldn't make any sense at all. Especially when you consider that this chapter was meant to be included in 'Dance'!

[Northman_96]

Tbh i think stannis will kill theon (not sure in what manner) in order to maintain the loyalts of the northern lords who he needs in order to have any chane of claiming the iron throne. I think stannis will force the bolton force onto/across the lake. This will be hi 'high ground' as the lake will crack unde the weight decimating the freys and boltons. Manderlys troops will have taken the rear gaurd and side with stanis killing any rmaining freys/boltons. The letter sent to Jon is most likely fake by ramsey since any proper letter from the boltons as mentioned earlier woud be written by roose.

[Lightstar]

What does Theon mean here: "I know a quicker way." Stannis drew his dagger. For an instant Theon thought that he meant to stab the banker. You will never get a drop of blood from that one, my lord, he might have told him. The king laid the blade of the knife against the ball of his left thumb, and slashed. "There. I will sign in mine own blood. That ought to make your masters happy."

"You will never get a drop of blood from that one, my lord" - Didn't they just meet?

Interesting...

[Lebronn Jaime]

He means the banker is completely unemotional. It's a reference to the humor theory in which blood carries the passions for life. Theon is saying that the banker is so calm that Stannis likely wouldn't even get a reaction from him were he to stab him.

[Maester Jamf]

Hi all,

I've spent the summer devouring the Ice & Fire series and have come here as a way to cope with coming to the end of DWD and the sample chapters. I've seen most of the posts here and spent some time rereading passages and this sample chapter to make sense of "Ramsay's" letter. I like a lot of the explanations, but after seeing this new chapter I can only come to the conclusion that Ramsay wrote the letter. Here's my explanation.

There are a number of people with access to the information involved in the letter: Ramsay, Roose, Mance, Theon, Asha, Stannis, Melisandre, and Jon

All these people have direct access to the knowledge of Mance's existence at Winterfell, Stannis' magic sword, the escape of Reek and Arya, and the existence of the Queen and company at the wall. I assume Theon and thereby Asha and Stannis know of Mance from the line, "Then he had to say who Abel was..."

There are also some others that might have knowledge enough to write it depending on things not yet known: Other NW members, Queen Selyse, Patchface?

All these I think are possible choices, but Ramsay is the only one that makes sense without completely breaking rationale or character. First, it says it's from Ramsay and sounds a lot like him. It sounds so much like him that if someone else wrote it they would have to have some serious FBI-level profiling skills (outside of Theon perhaps). Second, it is a perfectly reasonable response from Ramsay. He already sees Jon Snow as a threat to his claim on Winterfell. Once he uncovers Jon's plot to steal his bride he lashes out and threatens him. However, he also uses those threats as leverage against both Jon and Stannis by asking for the Queen and co as hostages. If Jon gives them up then Stannis loses, if Jon doesn't then the NW is no longer staying out of the realm's affairs and is openly hostile to the North.

I don't think that any battle has taken place before he sends the letter, nor do I think Stannis sent him a false letter saying that he was defeated. This leaves an odd chronological issue and it's not really necessary for Ramsay's action. If Jon thinks Stannis had been defeated then it looks like a pardon from Ramsay despite the plot with Mance. Indeed, Jon at first accepts that he can do nothing and shouldn't be meddling with the realm only to change his mind after thinking of leaving Arya with a man that flays women.

The problems with the letter that point to another author are also easily resolved. The letter was not in blood because the raven was flying through a storm and in an earlier chapter, Theon notes a raven bringing in a soaked parchment (when Roose supposedly receives the map from Karstark). Blood might be stylish for Ramsay, but poor for delivering a message in a storm. Ramsay also knows of the sword the same way he knows about Mance, through torture. When Theon escapes he still has at least 4 alive spearwives and Abel to flay away and it's quite reasonable that one of them would crack, especially since they already accomplished their objective.

The only thing still irking me is the "seven days of battle" line. I don't quite understand the significance of that. A religious reference? A reference to Mance plus his spearwives? A lie to correct a time frame?

I also believe that Stannis does have some use for the maester and the Winterfell ravens but I don't think it's related to Ramsay's letter to the bastard

[evita mgfs]

How the tree can be a Defense - Jon was coming - albeit to WF and not Stannis, but got stabbed. King's blood could raise him - sacrifice Theon to the trees. The maester sent a map via Raven to WF....BR/Bran seem to warg those ravens pretty easily. They bring the map to the wall and Jon knows where to go. He pulls a "Renly's ghost" and smashes the Frey forces. Manderly's forces turn cloak on Bolton.

I just wanted to suggest that the tree will be the zone where the murder of ravens gathers, as when Bran and the Reeds and Hodor had the help of a murder of ravens on their journey. The ravens tear apart the wights, yes? I am thinking Alfred Hitchcock's the birds.

Moreover, those birds attended a witnessed the mummer's farce that was Bolton's marriage to false Arya.

I like your ideas as well - I am just speculating as everyone does here. :blushing:

[evita mgfs]

I also agree with this. I first thought of that from this quote though:

"You have no high ground here, no walls to hide beyond, no natural defences."

"Yet." (says Stannis)

"Yet," both ravens screamed in unison. Then one quorked and the other muttered, "Tree, tree, tree."

How does the word tree come in a discussion about defences? It was not a word anyone had mentioned before (in the chapter) that they could have mimicked. There is a chance that they heard it from maester Tybald (was he discussing about the tree in front of them? A trap? I dont think so). The crow is almost saying that the tree will be their defence.

Also I do not think that Asha would have asked for such a death for Theon. She could have asked that he is given to the Drowned God (there's a lake right?). I think she might have gotten a feeling, or a dream or even the "rustling of the leaves" made her propose to Stannis to take Theon there.

Edit: and I do think Bran/BR is behind it.

:agree:

I like your idea about the ravens and the defense of the tree. The ravens know because they have the knowledge forgotten at Winterfell, but the trees remember! That is why Stannis needs to go to the tree.

[He Calls It Thinking]

This is martin, let's apply occam's razor here.

1.) Stannis' forces are defeated, Manderly is slaughtered, Theon managed to escape, Ramsay finds out Jeyne is headed to the wall, and sends the letter.

2.) Jon Snow is dead, and will no longer be a POV.

Also consider, Winds of Winter is the book right before the last, so the threat of the Others has to become REAL to the rest of westerns, how does this happen? The wall falls, and the Others take the North.

[Rolex Baratheon]

This is martin, let's apply occam's razor here.

1.) Stannis' forces are defeated, Manderly is slaughtered, Theon managed to escape, Ramsay finds out Jeyne is headed to the wall, and sends the letter.

2.) Jon Snow is dead, and will no longer be a POV.

Also consider, Winds of Winter is the book right before the last, so the threat of the Others has to become REAL to the rest of westerns, how does this happen? The wall falls, and the Others take the North.

The Wall can still fall with Jon around.

And although I do not remember the exact details, there were logical and chronological inconsistencies with Ramsay's letter. Stannis is alive and has, or is about to, take Winterfell.

[alienlefay]

My interpretation of this chapter is that Stannis took Winterfell: they seem to be in a dungeon, which obviously means that they're no long lost in the woods and obviously it couldn't have happened before Reek and Jeyne's escape, since Reek's there. Of this I am sure.

What I do not know is how he would have done it. What if he killed Ramsay? When he talks about Lord Bolton, he's referring to Roose that somehow isn't there. I honestly can't remember if he left Winterfell trying to find Stannis' troops but doesn't seem unfitting if Ramsay left, got caught, Stannis' army advanced to Winterfell pretending to be Ramsay's (with that huge storm it wouldn't be hard if they wore their cloaks) and took the castle. Roose's a loose end, though...

[Lebronn Jaime]

My interpretation of this chapter is that Stannis took Winterfell: they seem to be in a dungeon, which obviously means that they're no long lost in the woods and obviously it couldn't have happened before Reek and Jeyne's escape, since Reek's there. Of this I am sure.

What I do not know is how he would have done it. What if he killed Ramsay? When he talks about Lord Bolton, he's referring to Roose that somehow isn't there. I honestly can't remember if he left Winterfell trying to find Stannis' troops but doesn't seem unfitting if Ramsay left, got caught, Stannis' army advanced to Winterfell pretending to be Ramsay's (with that huge storm it wouldn't be hard if they wore their cloaks) and took the castle. Roose's a loose end, though...

Not sure what you're saying here. In the sample chapter the group is very clearly still at the place where Stannis's army was stopped in the snow in ADWD. The Frey army was being held up by a portion of the remaining Umber force under Mors "Crowfood", but they weren't expected to last long. The Manderly forces are also supposed to be on the way towards Stannis's location. In addition, Theon believes that Ramsay will march with Bolton troops to recover himself and "Arya". This is where we leave off, in terms of what we know has happened.

[Gonzalo]

Indeed they haven't taken Winterfell yet. Stannis' army seems to have gathered around a tower.

[Eddward Stark]

This is martin, let's apply occam's razor here.

1.) Stannis' forces are defeated, Manderly is slaughtered, Theon managed to escape, Ramsay finds out Jeyne is headed to the wall, and sends the letter.

2.) Jon Snow is dead, and will no longer be a POV.

Also consider, Winds of Winter is the book right before the last, so the threat of the Others has to become REAL to the rest of westerns, how does this happen? The wall falls, and the Others take the North.

1) maybe, but see my thoughts below...I suspect that misinformation may have been sent to Ramsay, but who knows? This is one of the ways GRRM takes advantage of different POVs, instead of an omniscient narrator.

2) :( I doubt it. Like you said, this is Martin. He's already made us think Bran, Rickon, and Arya were dead. But how many original POV characters has GRRM killed off? Ned was the huge shock, but it's clear that this story is really about the generation after Ned, and we only knew Ned so that we could understand his children/family better. Catelyn might debatably count as another one gone. Robb was never a POV character; this was a hint that Robb wasn't going to make it to the end of the series. Other than that, from the beginning of GoT, we have Jon, Arya, Bran, Tyrion, Dany (and Sansa, if you count POVs at the end of GoT). These are the characters I expect to last until the end.

The Wall can still fall with Jon around.

And although I do not remember the exact details, there were logical and chronological inconsistencies with Ramsay's letter. Stannis is alive and has, or is about to, take Winterfell.

I'm of the opinion that Ramsay's letter was legit, or at least that he wrote it himself, and was not intentionally lying, although it's entirely possible that not everything in it is true (for example, Stannis could have forced the Maester of the Dreadfort to send a raven on Lord Karstark's behalf, saying that Stannis was killed).

Note that when GRRM released the Theon gift chapter, he stated on his "Not a Blog:"

(The chronology, as usual, is tricky. This chapter will be found eventually at the beginning of WINDS, but as you will be able to tell from context, it actually takes place before some of the chapters at the end of DANCE).

It's clear to me that he expected us all to understand that this Theon chapter came before Ramsay's letter and the mutiny at the Wall. GRRM just wanted to leave that little cliffhanger of Jon's "death" in ADWD, but couldn't also squeeze the Theon chapter in.

[Usurper's Dog]

I'm of the opinion that Ramsay's letter was legit, or at least that he wrote it himself, and was not intentionally lying, although it's entirely possible that not everything in it is true (for example, Stannis could have forced the Maester of the Dreadfort to send a raven on Lord Karstark's behalf, saying that Stannis was killed).

I think this is precisely the case. We know Stannis has access to the ravens being used for communication with Winterfell. Karstark's plan was to obviously report when Stannis' forces were on the move, so if Stannis sent a letter confirming what Ramsey was expecting to come, then it would make sense for him to put in the letter that Stannis was dead. Lightbringer is also known throughout the realm, and a dead Stannis' sword would also be a worthy victory treasure for sadistic Ramsey to trumpet around Winterfell.

The wherabouts of Theon/Jeyne are still unknown to Ramsey, as they were probably left out of the "fake" correspondence between Karstark (Stannis) and Winterfell. Hence his reasoning for sending the letter to the Wall in the first place. He knows they jumped over the exterior wall, and the most likely destination to garner protection (in Ramsey's mind) would be for them to head to the Wall. This fits in with both the letter and the note on chronology from GRRM's blog.

[mrlukeduke]

We know Stannis has access to the ravens being used for communication with Winterfell. Karstark's plan was to obviously report when Stannis' forces were on the move, so if Stannis sent a letter confirming what Ramsey was expecting to come, then it would make sense for him to put in the letter that Stannis was dead. Lightbringer is also known throughout the realm, and a dead Stannis' sword would also be a worthy victory treasure for sadistic Ramsey to trumpet around Winterfell.

The wherabouts of Theon/Jeyne are still unknown to Ramsey, as they were probably left out of the "fake" correspondence between Karstark (Stannis) and Winterfell. Hence his reasoning for sending the letter to the Wall in the first place. He knows they jumped over the exterior wall, and the most likely destination to garner protection (in Ramsey's mind) would be for them to head to the Wall. This fits in with both the letter and the note on chronology from GRRM's blog.

This is what I thought too. In fact, maybe there was even someone killed and a mangled head sent out along with his "magic" sword, or some evidence that seems enough like "dead Stannis" for Ramsey to buy into, cocky as he is already. Maybe Stannis even sent misinformants back on foot to Winterfell after some kind of fake-out with the captured Karstarks (many of whom were simply naive about events). Perhaps Stannis sent along false battle plans by foot or Raven too, hoping even for interception by the marching army, however I'm fairly sure the Bolton/Frey/Manderley armies had already left Winterfell and wouldn't be shooting down ravens anyway. Stannis seems to assume they've likely already left and is preparing something cryptic (Theon helps with numbers etc).

If the Manderleys do switch over to Stannis, and Mance has caused some (even just a little) internal confusion/conflict/paranoia before being captured (I assume) by Ramsey, then Ramsey Snow is suddenly looking pretty vulnerable. Hell, Stannis might even have some of the innocent Karstarks onboard as part of his army now as well. (Some even predict a Reed army marching north, but I digress...)

All in all, I've changed my mind recently and think that the situation looks pretty good for Stannis Baratheon; and I believe Ramsey has been well and truly duped. I can't work out what's happened to Roose Bolton, but my thoughts are he's either back at the Dreadfort or perished somewhere on errands? All is quiet with the Roosterbolt. Too quiet.

Between Manderley, Stannis, Jon and "Arya" (not to mention the BIG Theon reveal coming up about... oh I don't know... BRAN AND RICKON ARE ALIVE OMG!), I'd say all-in-all Stannis looks pretty good up north, as long as he doesn't screw up this major battle.

Anyway I think this all best explains the letter to Jon Snow. He's being cocky and taunting Jon. He really does have Mance -- and I guess those poor Six Spearwives :(

But he has no idea that Stannis knows his game! And the raven Stannis sent was a captured bird from the Karstark traitors! Anyway, what the hell is going on with the ravens screaming about trees and such? That was eerie!

[Usurper's Dog]

If the Manderleys switch to Stannis, and Mance has caused some internal confusion/conflict before being captured (I assume) by Stannis, then Ramsey Snow is suddenly looking pretty weak. Hell, Stannis might even have some of the innocent Karstarks onboard as well?

All in all, I've changed my mind recently and think tnat the situaiton looks good for Stannis, and Ramsey has been duped. I can't work out what's happened to Roose Bolton, but my thoughts are he's either back at the Dreadfort or perished somewhere on errands.

Ramsey's power was always shallow. He achieved what he did because of his cruelty and his maniacal behavior. Remember how he gained his Lordship in the first place? He forced the recently widowed Lady Hornwood to marry him, granting him control of the Hornwood lands (where she then proceeded to eat her own fingers while locked in a tower to starve). From there he was able to establish his own sphere of influence (through fear alone) in which he was able to maintain power. Tywin Lannister seized on an opportunity to rid himself of the Young Wolf, giving Roose his chance to usurp his liege lord and become Warden of the North. The Bolton's treachery, and that alone, is what has gotten them to this point. And by now we can all guess what such blatant treachery is going to bring down upon the Boltens . I think we all know the Freys will continue to receive the justice they deserve, and now its only a matter of time until the Boltens get a taste of it themselves. They are currently presiding over a sizzling cluterfuck of houses with little loyalty to each other or the cause that brought them there, leading me to believe that we're soon going to see some time of "explosion" in the North.

[mrlukeduke]

Right, excellent points sir, I hadn't yet considered all of those wider factors. Yeah they've basically been creating the world's largest moral shit-storm up north, and bathing in while it laughing at everyone.

What goes up, must eventually come down -- hard. That kinda thing.

[Whitering]

Just read it for the first time, the one on the website at the moment, hehe, Stannis has some good ones in there.

[grillmeister]

Ramsey's power was always shallow. He achieved what he did because of his cruelty and his maniacal behavior. Remember how he gained his Lordship in the first place? He forced the recently widowed Lady Hornwood to marry him, granting him control of the Hornwood lands (where she then proceeded to eat her own fingers while locked in a tower to starve). From there he was able to establish his own sphere of influence (through fear alone) in which he was able to maintain power. Tywin Lannister seized on an opportunity to rid himself of the Young Wolf, giving Roose his chance to usurp his liege lord and become Warden of the North. The Bolton's treachery, and that alone, is what has gotten them to this point. And by now we can all guess what such blatant treachery is going to bring down upon the Boltens . I think we all know the Freys will continue to receive the justice they deserve, and now its only a matter of time until the Boltens get a taste of it themselves. They are currently presiding over a sizzling cluterfuck of houses with little loyalty to each other or the cause that brought them there, leading me to believe that we're soon going to see some time of "explosion" in the North.

After reading the Reek chapters in DWD I am no longer sure it was starvation that made Lady Hornwood eat her fingers.