The Roose Is Cunning

[Jolene Brown]

How can they make Rickon the Lord of Winterfell when they know that Bran is still alive though? I actually think it would be really interesting to have some conflict develop about that... Bran is the rightful Lord of Winterfell but we saw that a lot of the Northern lads were put off by his being crippled and carried around in the basket. I think it would be interesting if Jon insisted on Bran's rights, while others wanted to just name Rickon Lord.

[House_Scattergood]

Bran is a cripple. The north will not follow a cripple

[David C. Hunter]

I highly doubt that Davos/Rickon will factor into the battle that is to take place at the beginning of the tWoW. He is a POV character and his travels to Skagos and finding Rickon will most likely be taking place at the same time as the battle (3-4 chapters at least). IIRC the battle (as well as the one in Slaver's Bay) are to take place early in on in the book.

IMHO Stannis will have won the battle for the North by the time Rickon becomes relevant and Stannis will place him as rightful Lord of Winterfell....won't last long however with pending invasion of Others.

I think the battle of ice in the field is going to be early in the book, but the battle for Winterfell will be a huge battle and will last a while and happen later. I think Skagos will factor in at that point.

[Jolene Brown]

Bran is a cripple. The north will not follow a cripple

That's not legally an excuse for cutting him out of the line of succession. What I want to know is how they are going to justify it, especially to Jon, who I don't think is going to just sit back and not give a crap. Willas Tyrell is a cripple too, and no one is passing him over. I think it would be really interesting to see two factions develop and some conflict in the north over the issue of Bran vs. Rickon. It can't all be fairies and rainbows and the north remembers forever.

[VaramyrSixchins]

That's not legally an excuse for cutting him out of the line of succession. What I want to know is how they are going to justify it, especially to Jon, who I don't think is going to just sit back and not give a crap. Willas Tyrell is a cripple too, and no one is passing him over. I think it would be really interesting to see two factions develop and some conflict in the north over the issue of Bran vs. Rickon. It can't all be fairies and rainbows and the north remembers forever.

It may simply come down to who's present. If Rickon and Shaggydog are safe, whole, and there to be seen, would anyone really rally around a boy, Bran, who's far away, virtually impossible to find, and (at least in Bran's eyes) is seen differently by northmen bc of his physical condition?

[Vympel]

That's not legally an excuse for cutting him out of the line of succession. What I want to know is how they are going to justify it, especially to Jon, who I don't think is going to just sit back and not give a crap. Willas Tyrell is a cripple too, and no one is passing him over. I think it would be really interesting to see two factions develop and some conflict in the north over the issue of Bran vs. Rickon. It can't all be fairies and rainbows and the north remembers forever.

Willas can father heirs, Bran cannot. In any event, it won't happen. Rickon is liege lord in Winterfell by default if Bran is beyond the wall.

[mbuehner]

If Stannis were to construct this large wooden badger...

[JonTargaryenW/Viserion4WIN]

The Roose is cunning but I think Stannis will infiltrate Winterfell and retake it for the North. I don't however think that Roose will perish just yet, though Ramsey may. I imagine Roose is smart enough to see a loss as a loss and he will escape to the Dreadfort before Stannis brings the thunder. I'm hoping that either Roose kills Ramsey, which would be a pretty epic bit of kinslaying because it essentially ends House Bolton (for the nonce), or that Theon gets the honor of flaying Ramsey , and ends him with, "You must remember your name, Ramsey Snow."

[Ciazio]

I'm hoping that either Roose kills Ramsey, which would be a pretty epic bit of kinslaying because it essentially ends House Bolton (for the nonce), or that Theon gets the honor of flaying Ramsey , and ends him with, "You must remember your name, Ramsey Snow."

The latter would be epic, but the former is far more likely.

The Roose is cunning, yes. He knows that, in the long run, he can rule only by love or by fear and that no one is going to love him. So he must find a way to rule by fear.

I think he's working on a great-plan to submit everyone and the plan could be related to Lady Dustin's visit in the crypts, his leechings and the book he has found and burnt in Harrenhall.

Obviously it is based on magic and I won't exclude that he is looking for a way to control the Others.

[Manus_Dei]

Does Ramsey know what Stannis looks like?

Stannis might as well infiltrate Winterfell. Maybe he gives his sword to someone else, hence Ramsey thinks he killed Stannis and sends John that letter.

I don't think he would give up his sword. Kind of goes against his whole Azor Ahai theory if someone else can wield his fire sword too.

[Manus_Dei]

I think that Roose is screwed either way. Especially if Davos manages to rally some men in Skagos, which has been untouched by war. They should be sworn to the Starks, right? So, if they do indeed have Rickon, they could help with retaking Winterfell or crushing Dreadfort on their way there. Dreadfort is now poorly defended, as far as I understand

Only problem is that those Skagos men may just start eating everyone. They are wildlings, not sworn to anyone.

[SerGrahamando ofUttershill]

Only problem is that those Skagos men may just start eating everyone. They are wildlings, not sworn to anyone.

They are not wildlings. There are houses on Skagos sworn to the Starks.

[The Sunset King]

Roose is cunning but his fundamental error ironically is similar to the reasoning he gave as to why he betrayed Robb:

Roose claimed that, upon the seizure of Wintefell by the Greyjoys, he concluded that the North's cause was done. However, Bolton made the fatal mistake of assuming that the Lannister cause had won and was irrevocably on track to finish the war. Additionally, he failed to note that ruling exclusively through force, fraud, and fear is like forming a kingdom on incessantly shifting sands. Even though the North could technically be insulated in some scenarios from a reversal of Lannister fortunes, nothing could ultimately save Bolton from the emergence of a rallying point for Stark loyalists. In fact, the Boltons may be one of the first links in the pro-Lannister (even though he was only out for his own house, he technically acknowledges the Lannister claim to the Iron Throne and is their ally) chain to be undone in TWOW.

When Stannis notes that "Bolton has blundered" the following must be taken into account as to why a cunning person would fall into such an inescapable situation:

1. Roose thought that the Karstak map would provide a huge advantage in the sending off of a large, though unreliable, detachment to challenge Stannis. Even though Manderly was already known to be unreliable, Roose is oblivious to the fact that Stannis now can turn the supposed surprise attack to his own advantage. Thus, Roose is now just wasting forces that should have be kept at Winterfell. Even if he was willing to sacrifice such numbers, it would really do any good now because he won't inflict fatal damage on Stannis's position. Roose hoped to lay waste to Stannis's host, even at the cost of the force he was dispatching. That is improbable now.

The Umbers' psychological and physical warfare exacerbated the above.

2. Roose had to gamble on use of the fake Arya. A leader that unpopular has to take some gambles in order to fulfill inordinate ambitions. Trouble for Roose is that an unexpected escape plan devised by Mance, Melisandre, and a few others succeeded in removing the fake Arya from a tightly locked prison-like fortress. This means he is irrepairably screwed unless Stannis and some others die. Roose now has to destroy their military forces or face everything he worked to achieve crumble away as a result of defections.

3. Roose knew about the survival of Bran and Rickon but he had no guaranteed way of doing away with either one should they make an unexpected return. This has constantly been a looming risk, given the hatred harbored toward the Boltons by so much of the North.

By turning against Robb, convincing the Lannisters to appoint him as Warden of the North, attempting to use an imposter to quell doubts about his claim to Winterfell, and facilitating the RW, Roose created a situation in which a match lighting up the Norther tinderbox could consume the entire Bolton edifice. Stannis gradually uniting the North against Bolton with the help of the Watch and Stark loyalists was that match. Bolton has been progressively reduced in range of available options. He pretty much now must eliminate Stannis's force or he is done. He must do it to undo the damage caused by the imposter's escape and to eliminate the notion that any real military alternative to Bolton exists (he will be forced to rely even more on force).

Given the nature of the pink letter, it may be that Mance or Ramsay has already killed Roose. If not, he will almost certainly end up a corpse soon; perhaps with his entrails strewn accross a heart tree.