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A Bong of Ice and Fire

My new big theory about Dorne & Aegon (& stuff)

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Thank Cannabis, I've figured it out!

I love ASoIaF, but two things about it have been bothering me quite a bit.

  1. USELESS DORNISH DORKS WASTING OUR TIME

The major Dornish characters are all screw-ups and failures, and yet so much text is wasted on them and their boring lives.

Prince Doran, of whom by the end of AFfC we had been led to believe is actually a master long-term strategist and planner of "fire and bloody" vengeance, turns out to be just a bloated dumb-ass with a terrible plan. He waited 20 years for THAT?

And his "sun" Quentyn is a hapless dork from the get-go who ultimately earns a Darwin Award for his death by brain-dead dragon taming plan. Quentyn was just a dim-witted chump with little chance of success. When he died, we were all rightfully like “uhh… what was the point?”

Then there's "Darkstar" Gerold Dayne, who reads more like a character from a cheesy vampire thriller than a compelling Westeros player of the game.

I KNOW that GRRM is a great writer that should know not to waste so much time and book space on such boring, inept, inconsequential characters like Doran and Quentyn Martell and Darkstar Dayne. And yet he did.

Why oh why did GRRM make us suffer these Dornish fools for so long, with no plausible hope of them ever being relevant, while we missed reading about more interesting characters???

This bothered me. But now I understand.

2. VARYS'S LIE TO DYING KEVAN

We select forum dwellers, being as clever as we are, long ago figured out that Varys lied to a dying Kevan about Aegon Targaryen's return. After all, "Aegon" is obviously secretly of black dragon's blood, and Varys and Illyrio are clearly still fighting the Blackfyre rebellion. I swallowed this “Aegon Blackfyre” theory hook, line, and sinker. Everything about it just makes sense.

But if this theory is true, why did Varys lie to poor dying Kevan? It gains him nothing. It just seems pointlessly cruel for Varys to murder Kevan, then rub it in by lying to him about Aerys Targaryen’s return.

This glaring inconsistency was pointed out by skeptics of the Aegon Blackfyre theory, to whom believers offered the not-very-convincing explanations that Varys lied because of the little birds present or because "that's just what he does".

I tried to swallow these explanations, but I was left with strong nagging doubt about their validity. They are not very convincing, and we know that everything Varys does is calculated and with purpose.

How could I reconcile Varys's cruel pointless lie to a murdered good man, and my belief that Varys was truly a loyal and admirable member of Team Blackfyre?

This bothered me. But now I understand.

The space-wasting-Dornish and inexplicably-lying-Varys problems were solved when I linked them together in my mind after some good vape.

Here are my startling conclusions:

CONCLUSION 1: Darkstar = the real Aegon Targaryen

Reasoning:

  • Gerold is from a minor Dayne offshoot house and should be beneath the notice of the Prince of Dorne. However not only does Doran know him, he very oddly names him the “most dangerous man in Dorne”.

We really doubt that Gerold is so dangerous due to his unbelievable battle skill; after all he failed to kill a little girl and then ran away.

No, there must definitely be something else that makes him dangerous. It’s either something he knows (but what super-dangerous secret could a minor Dornish lordling have?); or because of WHO HE REALLY IS. The latter is more credible and makes more sense.

The most simple and logical conclusion is that Gerold Dayne is really someone else, someone important and dangerous.

This alone does not prove that Gerold is Aegon, but he clearly is much more than he pretends to be.

  • Gerold has “Targy” good looks. This is no big deal, right? After all, the Daynes are noted as good-looking and sharing some Targaryen physical characteristcs. (See Ashara.) That doesn’t make them of dragons’ blood, though. Gerold is a Dayne, so his Targy looks are not surprising.

Or are they? If you were Doran hiding the real Aegon, wouldn’t you hide him as a “Dayne” in order to draw less suspicion about his looks? Also, wouldn’t you put him with a minor Dayne house to further make him an anonymous nobody, not worthy of attention?

In fact, were you hiding Aegon Targaryen in Dorne, calling him “Dayne” and raising him in a lesser branch of the house makes perfect sense. This alone does not prove that Gerold is Aegon, but it is clearly a very good cover for a potential secret Aegon.

  • Doran’s long-term master plan has been to marry his daughter to the real Targaryen heir, then rain hell on the usurpers. This plan seemingly died when pathetic Viserys died. It really wasn’t a good plan, given the unlikelihood of Viserys surviving Robert’s knives or Dothraki hordes or living but not turning out to be a total douchebag.

That was the sorry plot that he waited 20 years to hatch, while enduring years of his family calling him a do-nothing pussy? Really? For Doran to wait so long to get Dorne’s vengeance based on such a shitty plan strains credibility. Maybe Doran is just stupid, eh?

But I doubt he is. There’s a reason we got so much of him in AFfC and why that book left us believing he is a genius long-term player of the game.

No, Doran cannot be the idiot he appears to be. The real Targaryen heir had to be elsewhere, better protected and groomed for Doran to plot to eventually marry him to his daughter. Otherwise Doran’s arc in AFfC was just stupid and a waste of time.

This means that Doran really had to have been planning to marry his daughter to the real heir (Aegon Targaryen), not the obviously dead-man-walking dolt Viserys. So Doran must have known about Aegon living. So Doran and hidden Aegon definitely ARE LINKED.

This alone does not prove that Gerold is Aegon, but it does indicate that Doran knows about Aegon living and is part of the secret Aegon plot.

You thought that GRRM’s “twist” of Aegon being alive was just a set up for the “anti-twist” of “Aegon” really being a Blackfyre. Hah. In fact GRRM is setting us up for a real “double twist” of our balls – both are true!

What this conclusion explains:

  • why Doran is so confident in his long-term plan that he endures his family’s mockery for years.
  • why Doran calls Darkstar “the most dangerous man in Dorne”.
  • why Darkstar is moody and angry and “of the dark” (he knows who he is and that he is “dead” to the world, thus “of the dark”.)
  • why Darkstar gets so upset about being compared to his famous “cousin” Arthur Dayne. If a Dayne, he would more likely be proud of his cousin, if a bit jealous. But he is inappropriately resentful of Arthur. This makes more sense when we accept that Darkstar is in fact the rightful Targaryen King; of course it annoys him to just be in the shadow of some Dornish knight.

CONCLUSION 2: Varys didn't lie to Kevan.

Evidence

  • The simplest explanation for Varys’s speech to dying Kevan is that he was telling the truth. It makes more sense than stretching believability to justify his lying. But since “Young Griff” is most likely the son of Illyrio and his Blackfyre wife just posing as the real Aegon, and since Varys surely knows this, there must be a REAL LIVE AEGON somewhere that Varys knows about. Otherwise he lied to Kevan, but his lying is too illogical to swallow; so he told the truth.

This alone does not prove that Gerold is Aegon, but it does indicate that the real Aegon does live and is safely hidden away somewhere. And we do not believe that Young Griff is the real Aegon, so the real Aegon must be someone else.

CONCLUSION 3: Doran Martell is a sick genius that sacrificed his own son in his game.

Reasoning

  • After Viserys died, supposedly Doran needed a new plan to return the Targaryen’s to power, so he sent his hapless son and some pathetic companions to marry Dany and bring home her dragons to Dorne. This plan is so pathetic and stupid, it is not credible that someone of Doran’s intellect would rely on it.

Quentyn’s chapters in ADwD just showed us that he was an ugly, not-very-bright, loyal, but incompetent prince, accompanied by less than the best & brightest of Dorne. When he dies, we are not surprised, as everything he does is retarded.

ADwD readers were frustrated at the “pointless” Quentyn chapters, which took up valuable book space while conclusions to more interesting story arcs were pushed off to TWoW.

I don’t believe that a writer of GRRM’s caliber would waste space on Quentyn’s unawesome adventure if it was pointless. So it wasn’t pointless. But what point could it have served?

Some readers put forth the theory that the point of Quentyn was just to free Dany’s dragons from their chains. Ummm… okay, but that could’ve been accomplished via other literary devices that did not waste so much of our time. No, this cannot be the point of Quentyn’s story; there must be another one.

It was also proposed that the purpose of Quentyn’s tale was to set up bad blood between Dany and Dorne. Ummmm… maybe, but I’m not buying it. I think Doran is too smart to turn on Dany just because Quentyn died. It wasn’t really Dany’s fault at all. No, there must be another purpose.

Was the purpose to show that Doran’s plan of sending Quentyn to Dany was just stupid? No, I don’t believe Doran is stupid. So there is only one remaining credible explanation of the purpose of Doran sending Quentyn to Dany, and it is shocking.

Doran sent Quentyn off to die on a fool’s mission.

Surely Doran knew that his son is an incompetent loser with little success of surviving the trip to Slaver’s Bay and bringing home Dany & her dragons. Doran knew that most likely Quentyn would fail and die. (If Quentyn were to somehow succeed, well – BONUS! But Doran couldn’t have been counting on that.)

He expected Quentyn to fail and probably die. So he effectively sent him off to die.

Why? For one, he lets his ineffectual son die in a heroic quest, which is a good death. For Doran, this is a sort of kindness to his son. But more importantly, he used his son as a pawn to win Dany and her dragons (for Aegon and Dorne).

He knew Quentyn wouldn’t bring back the dragons. He also knew that Quentyn’s death would most likely cause Dany to feel some regret and to recognize what a good ally Dorne would have been, even if she couldn’t marry Quentyn. (Dany’s regret and sympathy would be greater if Quentyn died; perhaps his “false coin” companion Drinkwater or whatever his name is was tasked by Doran to make sure Quent died.)

By sacrificing Quentyn, he moved closer to an alliance with Dany.

Doran reasons that when he reveals Aegon/Darkstar as alive, allied with Dorne, and claiming the Iron Throne, then Dany will join her power and dragons with Aegon (and Dorne).

And then Doran will be able to truly rain “fire and blood” on his enemies.

CONCLUSION 4: Darkstar took Storm’s End, not Young Griff.

Reasoning:

  • The Arianne sample AWoW chapter informs us that Aegon has taken Storm’s End. But how? We know how hard Storm’s End is to take if you don’t have magic shadow assassins, which Aegon Blackfyre/Young Griff and Jon Connington certainly don’t have. So how did they take it? It must have been through subterfuge.

But what tricks would this group have to “trick” Storm’s End, which must be held now by powerful forces, and take the castle by subterfuge? Uhhhh…. GRRM could think of some, but they would probably strain credibility.

Storm’s End was more likely taken with the help of forces outside of JC’s band. It was likely taken by the real Aegon Targaryen (Darkstar) posing as Gerold Dayne, knight of Dorne and ally to Storm’s End. much more able to trick the lords of Storm End then JC's band. This makes far more sense to me than any other potential explanation.

CONCLUSION 5: Young Griff was a back-up plan.

Reasoning:

  • If Doran/Varys have the real Aegon in Dorne, then what’s the deal with Young Griff Blackfyre? Simple – he is the back-up plan in case something happened to Darkstar. Plotters like Doran and Varys would have a good back-up plan.

Varys tells Kevan that Aegon was raised to be a good leader. We know that Young Griff was raised this way. It is not hard to imagine that so was Darkstar.

Young Griff is just another pawn in Doran & Varys’s game.

CONCLUSION 6: Varys and Doran played Illyrio and Connington.

Reasoning:

  • Illyrio wants Young Griff on the throne out of love for his dead Blackfyre wife. Illyrio and Varys are tight from their days in the hood together. Varys helps Illyrio because of their bond, but Varys is really just using Illyrio for his son as a back-up Aegon, and for his money, while Varys’s real plan is with Doran and Darkstar.

I can’t write anymore now. I realize this is not a full-fledged theory, and you can probably poke many holes in it, but I am convinced I am on to something.

There is NO WAY that the things that bugged me about the useless Dornish storylines and Varys’s lie were just bad writing by GRRM. He’s way too good for that.

There is more under the surface that we haven’t found yet. At least, not until today. J

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I've read this theory before, and I think a major hang-up is Gerold Dayne's age. Aegon should only be about 18 or so now. Arianne is 23 and considers Darkstar to be a contemporary peer, if not a little older.

As for the "useless" Dornish subplots, I don't think they're "useless" so much as they're "not fully developed" yet. I couldn't believe the number of people saying that Quentyn was a pointless character, when his death 1. was yet another mark against the "Targaryen fireproof" nonsense and 2. will have obvious major implications down the line when Dorne is deciding whom to support.

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I've read this theory before, and I think a major hang-up is Gerold Dayne's age. Aegon should only be about 18 or so now. Arianne is 23 and considers Darkstar to be a contemporary peer, if not a little older.

As for the "useless" Dornish subplots, I don't think they're "useless" so much as they're "not fully developed" yet. I couldn't believe the number of people saying that Quentyn was a pointless character, when his death 1. was yet another mark against the "Targaryen fireproof" nonsense and 2. will have obvious major implications down the line when Dorne is deciding whom to support.

I don't think either of those supposed points of the Dorne storylines are compelling enough to have required so much ink from GRRM. I am convinced that there is something much deeper there that has only been hinted at so far, more along the lines of what I am proposing.

As for Darkstar's age, I don't believe we are given any good reasons to judge him too old to be Aegon. Are we?

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I don't think either of those supposed points of the Dorne storylines are compelling enough to have required so much ink from GRRM. I am convinced that there is something much deeper there that has only been hinted at so far, more along the lines of what I am proposing.

Fair enough. That's a matter of personal preference.

As for Darkstar's age, I don't believe we are given any good reasons to judge him too old to be Aegon. Are we?

There's nothing exact about the age. I just think that Arianne seems to view him as someone who is her age or older, not as someone who's 5 years younger.

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No, Arriane just views him as "hot". We know she's a libertine Dornish chick; I don't think she cares about the ages of her lovers. There's no hint as to his age. All we know is he is a young knight for whom Arriane feels some physical attraction.

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No, Arriane just views him as "hot". We know she's a libertine Dornish chick; I don't think she cares about the ages of her lovers. There's no hint as to his age. All we know is he is a young knight for whom Arriane feels some physical attraction.

Again, it's a matter of perception and opinion. We seem to be at an impasse, so good luck with your idea.

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can't say I agree with your theories, but you did make me laugh out loud several times with the way you expressed it. So thanks, it cheered me right up after getting stuck on the bloody tube on the way home from work.

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Well, I could be wrong. But I'd love to be right.

I just have to believe that there's far more to Doran Martell's plans than so far meets the eye.

Him having the real Aegon Targaryen in his pocket all this time would make all the Dornish stuff that happened in AFfC and ADwD make much more sense in retrospect. It would also explain the point of Darkstar. Otherwise as I said - it was a waste of time & not worthy of GRRM's talents.

And let's face it, it would be an awesome twist. :)

We shall see! (in maybe 5 years or so...)

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I have always suspected that Quentyn's death was part of, or at least an acceptable outcome, Doran's plan with Dany in Meereen. I also think Doran is much more clever than we give him credit for. Also, this would be another reason Darkstar carries Dawn and (edit: brain fart) why he tried to kill Myrcella. The only thing I can't get around is Darkstar's perceived age. He has always seemed older (early-mid 20s) while Aegon is about 19 or so.

But, having said that, I can accept that the age is just a misconception by readers. Sign me up as a believer.

BTW: I love that this was inspired by cannabis. :thumbsup:

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I have always suspected that Quentyn's death was part of, or at least an acceptable outcome, Doran's plan with Dany in Meereen. I also think Doran is much more clever than we give him credit for. Also, this would be another reason Darkstar carries Dawn and why he tried to kill Myrcella. The only thing I can't get around is Darkstar's perceived age. He has always seemed older (early-mid 20s) while Aegon is about 19 or so.

Uh, Darkstar does NOT have Dawn.

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Uh, Darkstar does NOT have Dawn.

Brain fart. Accidentally mixed a theory I read with fact.

On another note: Do you monitor my posts just to try and correct me, even if sometimes there is nothing to actually correct?

ETA: Shouldn't say me. It seems like you do it to a lot of other people.

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Brain fart. Accidentally mixed a theory I read with fact.

On another note: Do you monitor my posts just to try and correct me, even if sometimes there is nothing to actually correct?

Don't flatter yourself. :P

ETA: Shouldn't say me. It seems like you do it to a lot of other people.

So I should just let inaccuracies go by even though I know they're inaccuracies?

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So Doran sends his oldest son to die because he thinks it will make Dany feel bad for them?

No.

The extent of that trip was to show Dany that Dorne had a secret pact with Darry about Viserys and that they will support her in her conquesting. Her accepting the betrothal offer would have been icing on the cake

The fact that Quentyn died is going to piss Doran off, especially the way he died, but he had accepted that risk.

The one thing you can be sure about Doran is he tries to have as little loss of life as possible. At one point idk the pov but Doran is reflecting on the only loss of Doran life in the GoT was Oberyn, and he had mixed feelings about risking it all while protecting Dorne's people

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So I should just let inaccuracies go by even though I know they're inaccuracies?

No, but I would not be surprised to find you posting simply to correct my spelling. But like I said, I am not the only one who has seen you be entirely subjective in your posts. You can often have good input, but you also often close your perspective and see everything against your opinion as complete nonsensical bullshit. You need to chill out with all of those apple martinis.

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Excellent theory,

Not sure I buy it but it was very creative of you, Plus there has to be some point to Darkstar.

Arianne is travelling to storms end to meet up with Griff and Y Griff to meet this "Dragon" apparently so we could be set for some kind of reveal early in winds hopefully.

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Sigh...My precious Dornish....no one respects you.

The Dornish are not a waste of space. Doran Martell is not a coward. I trust you see that the Martells are on the rise as of now? The only real reason why people think that now is because that's what the Martells want the world to think, that they are useless, out of the way and not a threat.

Regardless of how many or how few soldiers Dorne has, it is much better than most of the armies left fighting in Westeros. They havent been touched and control the entire southern region in a more or less unified kingdom. The Tyrells and Lannisters are all but finished in terms of real threat. Think of how many countless soliders the Tyrells will lose once they make it to Storm's End. While they are fighting the Golden Company there, the Dornish will come from their flank and end the siege.

Doran Martell has been planning this for a long time and once the Dornish join forces with the Golden Company the Tyrells, Lannisters and Tarlys wont stand a chance, assuming that the Tarlys or Hightowers dont turncloak as well.

If Arianne Martell marries Aegon, the Dornish will instantly become the most powerful Kingdom in the South, IMO. (For some reason I dont consider the Westerlands or the Vale as the South).

I really don't see the battle of King's Landing being a struggle. A few Goldcloaks and Red cloaks vs. The Golden Company, Stormlords, Dorne and turncloak Reach Lords.

Each of the Sand Snakes is in a position to spy and give intel back to Dorne. So now Doran Martell has little birds everywhere, the only difference is that everyone is underestimating him.

However, Aegon will need Dorn'es help, thats for sure if he is to accomplish anything

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No, but I would not be surprised to find you posting simply to correct my spelling. But like I said, I am not the only one who has seen you be entirely subjective in your posts. You can often have good input, but you also often close your perspective and see everything against your opinion as complete nonsensical bullshit. You need to chill out with all of those apple martinis.

Some of it is complete nonsensical bullshit. This theory, though I disagree with it, is not. I just had some concerns over the apparent gap in ages, which the OP and I discussed amiably and which ended at an impasse because of the difference in perception.

I'm a copy editor. Correcting inaccuracies is how I make a living. In any event, if you find my writing not to your liking, you're free to ignore it.

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So Doran sends his oldest son to die because he thinks it will make Dany feel bad for them?

No.

If Quentyn had succeeded, great. By Quentyn failing (which Doran had to have forseen), at least Doran got Dany's attention that Dorne will rise for her if she allies with them.

The extent of that trip was to show Dany that Dorne had a secret pact with Darry about Viserys and that they will support her in her conquesting. Her accepting the betrothal offer would have been icing on the cake.

I think the purpose of the trip was just to generally move Dorne & Dany closer together for an eventual alliance. Quentyn was just Doran's expendable pawn.

The fact that Quentyn died is going to piss Doran off, especially the way he died, but he had accepted that risk.

.

I think Quentyn's death will sadden Doran, not piss him off. Doran had to have known that Quentyn's death was probable on this quest.

The one thing you can be sure about Doran is he tries to have as little loss of life as possible. At one point idk the pov but Doran is reflecting on the only loss of Doran life in the GoT was Oberyn, and he had mixed feelings about risking it all while protecting Dorne's people

Yes, we know Doran cares about people and peace because he watches little children frolic in the bath house. But more importantly, we know that he has been planning for years to take "fire and blood" to his enemies. That will involve a lot of loss of life. I think Doran is more concerned with winning than preserving life.

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Let me correct myself: I am a believer now that Darkstar is Aegon Targaryen. I think Young Griff took Storm's End and Arianne is going to investigate, since she has now been filled in by her father that they have/know the true Aegon. I think Quentyn's true purpose (though not known by him) was to prove to Dany that Dorne was committed to her and the Targaryens.

Some of it is complete nonsensical bullshit.

My speculation (would not call it a theory) that the Greatjon may actually be dead was basically laughed at by you because Whoresbane believes he is alive. Whoresbane, who was told by the Lannisters/Freys/Boltons, who would all have a perfect reason to lie if the Greatjon was indeed dead.

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Great theory, one of the reasons i have to believe it is Darkstar has the dark purple eyes of Rhagar and some of the Martell features (Strong Jaw, some Black hair, very dark black/purples eyes)where as YG has light purple purple eyes. But one problem I see with this theory is if Darkstar is so vital to Doran and his plans, why use him as a scape goat for the Myrcella incident and have people chasing after him.

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