My new big theory about Dorne & Aegon (& stuff)

[Osha13]

Unless someone can truly tell us Darkstars real age right now and it does not match up with Aegon's birthday, this is a GREAT theory. Big ups to you OP. Arianne thinking Darkstar is probably her age, is not the same thing as him being her age.

Somehow Doran found out about the plot to kill Trystane. I always felt this was Varys but couldn't put my finger on why and how. Perhaps Varys is loyal to Doran and the Martells, it is something I've thought of before, but the OP puts it in great perspective.

[The Fourth Head]

Darkstar is estimated to be between 26-29, roughly.

Viserys would have been 25 approximately (depending on timing of namedays- he could have turned 26)

Aegon is 17

Which is why I have expanded on the theory that Darkstar may be Viserys and the guy we saw at the start of the series was not.

[Osha13]

Darkstar is estimated to be between 26-29, roughly.

Viserys would have been 25 approximately (depending on timing of namedays- he could have turned 26)

Aegon is 17

Which is why I have expanded on the theory that Darkstar may be Viserys and the guy we saw at the start of the series was not.

I'm just curious, estimated to be 26-29 by who?

[JonCon's Red Beard]

I'm just curious, estimated by who?

by either GRRM or the ASOIAF app.

[Osha13]

by either GRRM or the ASOIAF app.

So both have estimated him at that age range?

[The Fourth Head]

http://www.westeros.org/Citadel/SSM/Entry/Darkstars_Age/

Someone asked GRRM on behalf of Ran how old he was in 2008, he said he normally asks Ran that, and then Wiki claims GRRM has confirmed he is in late twenties. This fits with the way Arianne interacts with him- he seems to be older than her, and have been of sexual interest to Arianne for quite some time.

Still- I think this is deliberate obfuscating. Most characters, even minor ones, have specified DOB's. The most dangerous man in Dorne has a vague delta and a bit of comic back and forth between GRRM and Ran. It couldn't have hurt to make up a specific date unless that gave away his best hidden card.

[Osha13]

http://www.westeros.org/Citadel/SSM/Entry/Darkstars_Age/

Someone asked GRRM on behalf of Ran how old he was in 2008, he said he normally asks Ran that, and then Wiki claims GRRM has confirmed he is in late twenties. This fits with the way Arianne interacts with him- he seems to be older than her, and have been of sexual interest to Arianne for quite some time.

Still- I think this is deliberate obfuscating. Most characters, even minor ones, have specified DOB's. The most dangerous man in Dorne has a vague delta and a bit of comic back and forth between GRRM and Ran. It couldn't have hurt to make up a specific date unless that gave away his best hidden card.

Based on GRRMs response I think he was deliberately putting off the question. Like you said, why not give an actual date.

[The Kinkslayer]

Don't quit your day job and stop doing MJ, your theory is in a Mance is Rhaegar level of non sense.

[WilliamWesterosiWallace]

Because Arianne didn't know about Darkstar's identity, and she wasn't mature enough to be entrusted with that info- Doran woudn't allow it. For all we know, he simply gained Arianne's confidence in order to sabotage her plan, informing Doran on their whereabouts, ensuring Myrcella never actually got crowned, and petulantly slashing her face to try and force Doran to look more lively about pushing HIS claim rather than be exposed to another secret attempt to raise Myrcella. He did it because he felt vulnerable. The whole exercise was to give Arianne enough rope to teach her an important lesson- to grow up and bow to her father's greater knowledge, subtlety, and scope of influence. He was probably Doran's informant. It also gave him more time together with his intended.

Thanks for the timeline, that makes sense.

Still, losing Viserys would have totally ruined Doran's plans. Are we to imagine Viserys and Arianne forged a secret pact without either's knowledge, in Braavos, then Oberyn left Braavos and let Viserys and Dany carry on, chased by assassins, without any follow up plan?

Then Varys- a guy who has no intentions of Viserys gaining the throne and who has been waiting for Aegon to come of age, (17 years is a LONG time to do nothing) beats Doran to the jump and comes up with a plan for Dany to marry a Dothraki lord?

So what was Doran's grand plan that would have soothed Oberyn? Form a secret pact, then sit on his hands for years and leave his prize asset gallivanting around Essos with no secret aid, or spies, or protection? Why wait so long?

I can't imagine a player like Doran being so repeatedly foiled without coming across as extremely ineffectual- which I don't think he is supposed to.

Ok, let me show you my argument:

1. I'm not saying that he had to go crown himself in Arianne's Quest, I say before or after that. Makes more sense to me than to take the risk and previously explained reasons not to crown a Lannister, instead of just crowning himself. I know that if Doran were to have such a seret, he wouldn't trust it to young, dumb, kinda bitchy Arianne.

2. Arianne+Viserys was signed by William/Willem Darry, the knight that ran away with Viserys and Dany. He is the old man in the house with the red door. Viserys was left in the dark because, on Dany's words (along the lines of) "If Viserys knew he had a bride waiting for him on Dorne, he would be there in a fortnight." To which Quentyn replies that "My lord father was content on waiting Prince Viserys get his army."

They had a plan from the beginning. Dany tells us that Viserys and her stayed on houses of people that still wanted to hide them, but not long enough that people would find them there. That really sounds like what someone like Doran would do.

3. I wonder how a Doran-Varys conversation would be if they had the chance to argue about that. If you have a secret plan, and someone jumps in front of it and does a out there plan before yours can happen, there is nothing you can do. Besides, Viserys was indeed being given an army there. It isn't like he would marry Irri of Jhiqui any time soon, Dany was the betrothed one. He was fine by waiting the 40.000 screamers land in Westeros, and marry Arianne to him then. I guess.

4. The Oberyn-buying plan was to marry the Princess of Dorne to King Viserys when he came of age. Just like Aegon. When Viserys left KL he was eight years old. All the while help him under the covers, hiding and aiding him but never out loud, that causes deaths. Oberyn probably understood that (he was a soldier, he knew that 50.000 spears at best can't beat six kingdoms, two of which we saw raise around 80.000-100.000 soldiers each (Lannisters and Tyrells). It isn't ineffective to wait for better odds, it is ineffective to jump into a war you can't win.

[The Fourth Head]

Ok, interesting points, lets address them in turn:

1) I'm not sure Viserys is able to just go ahead and crown himself. He stands the risk of no-one believing him- he needs alibis- and Doran would be chief among those to corroborate his story and perhaps provide some secret identifying knowledge that he hasn't shared with Viserys, but made him aware of in order to keep him under control. He also stands the risk of Doran understandably refusing to sentence his entire family to death by backing him without allies. Dorne is considerably less than 50,000 swords according to Doran. The young Dragon exaggerated the figures to make his conquest sound more glorious and the Martells have watered the lie ever since, so it would indeed be suicide without allies. I think if Viserys has waited in Dorne between the ages of 8 and 25, he must have been well councilled as to why he had to wait so long by Doran in order to prevent the very thing you suggest he might do. After waiting so long, I don't think a foolish plot by Arianne would have provoked him into crowning himself first- not when he knew of where Arianne intended to crown Myrcella and was able to bring the mission down long before she got there. In short- he had things in hand by going with her. I also suspect the slash was to prevent a repeat without his knowledge. By crowning Myrcella, the risk would be that the Lannisters would ally with the Martells and encourage Doran- who had been pleading for peace- to gain the courage to stand up for her in order to put his son Trystane on the throne. Deep down, I don't think that would ever have happened due to the blood feud between the houses, but you have to admit it's a temptation and a concern for someone like Darkstar if he is in fact Viserys. By slashing her face, Darkstar put that possiblity entirely beyond reach, because the moment she was seen in public, the Lannsters would be howling for Dornish blood, and tou can't crown someone without them being seen eventually. that's as far as Darkstar was prepared to play his hand, I think.

2) I love this quote! "If Viserys knew he had a bride waiting for him on Dorne, he would be there in a fortnight." precisely!

He was in Dorne within the fortnight- thats my theory, but shipped over under the close control of Oberyn. An 8 year old boy being manipulated and controlled, and threatened with no support if he played up. They were taking him in, and promising him a future- provided he did as he was told. Still- the boy Dany knew was not Viserys if my theory is right, which means the same petulance doesn't necessarily apply (though Darkstar and Viserys do seem to share similar traits)

Quentyn's reposte makes no sense. "My Lord father was content on waiting for Prince Viserys to get his army". What? Is one just going to come and land on his lap? This is where there is clearly something missing in our knowledge of Doran's plans. Waiting- doing nothing, and hoping an army will come along- for 17 years, without any joy before Varys comes up with an idea to marry Dany to the Dothraki? If that plan had genuinely been to Doran's benefit, why didn't Doran come up with it first? No- I think a better possibility is that after Oberyn tried to raise Dorne for Viserys (before the pact) Varys approached Doran to try and keep Dorne quiet and their swords intact for Aegon. Doran agreed to go along with Varys for a while to discover whether Aegon was real. Vary promised to weaken the realm and provoke internal strife in preparation for Aegon's return to Westeros from his priviledged position in the Red Keep. This was what persuaded Doran to do nothing and sit back. This is the only explanation I can think of for why Doran called off his swords and agreed to do nothing. It may well be that Septa Lemore (in my mind, a spy from Dorne) went to check out Aegon, and discovered he was a Blackfyre, and it was this discovery that explains Doran suddenly sending Oberyn off to form a pact with Viserys and bringing him safely back to Dorne- as the only genuine male Targaryan left. So in effect Doran has been doing nothing- Varys has been doing all the work and an army will indeed fall on his lap thanks to Varys due to starting a second dance- without Dany or Dragons.

When Varys plays his hand fully, he will have destroyed the Tyrell / Lannister alliance, and the GC will probably win over all Blackfyre sympathisers by privately informing them of his real origins. Once the Blackfyres, Tyrells, Lannisters have battled it out, (I'm thinking without Tommen, the Blackfyres would win) Doran can reveal Viserys, reveal the lie with Arianne as the exposer, and rally all enraged former Targ sympathisers to his cause- commencing the Dance with Dragons. It would explain the title of the former book too- as an awful lot of it would be more behind the scenes and related to the Dance than we realised on the surface.

3) I don't think Dorne and Dothraki are a sensible way to win over Westeros. I don't think Doran would have welcomed that plan in the same way Varys was clearly not concerned that it would succeed. It would bleed westeros and turn them against Dany and Viserys. If they had done a Viserys swap, Doran wouldn't mind so much because he could reveal that the guy was fake and therefore, absolve Viserys of blame.

4) Yes, Dorne alone is doomed in a war. But sit back and do nothing for 17 years and just accpet it? No- Doran and Oberyn have been plotting like hell- and I think their patience can only be explained by Aegon, They don't want it to be Viserys and Dorne vs Westeros- they want it to be Blackfyre vs Targaryan with Blackfyre fighting westeros first before Viserys swoops in. He was waiting for Varys and Aergon to swoop in first, and for Varys to weaken Westeros for the benefit, ultimately, of Doran.

In short, by Varys removing the exisiting alliance, and uniting the Blackfyres, Doran, if he can expose the lie, will finally get his Targaryan army at long last as old blood feuds resurface.

[WilliamWesterosiWallace]

Doran didn't "sit back and do nothing", dude. It's not like he could do something to make Viserys grow faster, and you'll reacll that I showed some help from someone in defending Dany and Viserys after Willem/William's death. That is what he did: He protected the future king, guarded his sister, and provided him a bride in Dorne. And hey- We will never know if Doran wasn't calling the dragon houses he knew Were still loyal to Viserys and telling them to prepare; we can't ever confirm if he was trying to buy Unsullied, or contract the Golden Company or anyone else, or even was using his connections in Norvos to get a lot of Areo Hotahs to come to Westeros, because Illyrio came into the scene.

I like your idea about a Varys-Doran connection. What stops me from believing it is the following: How would Varys know that Doran is still a dragon follower? It's not like he has dragon painting hidden in a corner or something. I think that Doran and Varys worked for the same purpose, but unknowingly. That is how I think it goes.

And the whole Gerold Dayne thing has some flaws: First is the age thing, but we can't tell for sure what age are they so that is off the table. Next, the fact that Gerold didn't live alone in the Dayne Castle, whatever the name of the castle is. Even if they could buy every single person in there to hold Gerold's secret, don't you think it would be a matter of time before someone told? Besides, Gerold has friends in other houses, I think. People that knew 8-years-old Gerold and weren't from Castle Dayne. They could destroy the plot with one word.

Last but not least, I think that the reason why Darkstar is so dangerous, is because of Dawn. Dawn is said to be so sharp that when Arthur Dayne went to knight Jaime, he left cuts on his shoulders only with the slightest touch of his sword. I think that is some serious shit right there. If a man that happens to be a lord (I think Edric was the heir but he is with the lightning lord now so...), has an awesome sword, maybe some bannermen of his own, sworn to Dayne and Martell, and some mean intentions, that man can do some damage. He was said, by Arianne, that he can "destroy them(Yronwoods) root and branch." Just so you remember, House Yronwood is the second most powerful house in Dorne - They are the Freys of the desert. If Darkstar has the power to uproot the number 2 house in Dorne, imagine the destruction he could bring to the Martells! He is indeed dangerous, and not because he is someone else, but precisely because of who he is, and what he can do.

That is my opinion, at least. The guy seems dangerous enough without the dragon blood.

[The Fourth Head]

(apologies for the wall of text- there are a few points to cover off)

I don't think Visery's age was a factor in Doran waiting. Long after Viserys had come of age, Doran still did nothing. It wasn't until Viserys was 23 that Illyrio made a plan to marry Dany to the Dothraki, so it that does heavily imply either inertia, or, more likely, an unknown element to Doran's plans- which I think was Doran knowing about Aegon, and Illyrio wanting to wait for Aegon to come of age, which I assume was so Aegon would make a good ruler in his own right.

All your suggestions make sense as avenues Doran may have explored, but honestly, after 17 years? I would have thought after 3 years he would have exhausted all those avenues, so after a certain point, Doran was either doing absolutely nothing, or waiting for something else to ripen- ie, Aegon, and Varys' plan.

I would be amazed if Varys did not know Doran was a Targaryan fan. Didn't Oberyn signpost it sufficiently by trying to raise Dorne for Viserys? Further, if Doran believed Aegon to be real, (ie- Aegon is your nephew- Elia's son!) and offered Arianne Aegon's hand in marriage, and provided Doran his opportunity for revenge on the supporters of Robert's Rebellion, why wouldn't Doran support his cause? It's an absolute slam dunk.

The only spanner in that plan would be if Viserys was still alive, and still betrothed to Arianne- therefore, Doran would have get smart about how he cooperated with Varys, explaining he would support Aegon's cause, and allow Arianne to marry Aegon, but only on the condition that she met him and wanted him- which Doran would put off as long as he saw fit, but my theory as it currently stands is, Aegon and Arianne was an agreement in principal, Doran found out at an early stage through Septa Lemore that Aergon was fake and that consequently, any agreement was void, freeing him up, and motivating him, to send Oberyn off to seek out Viserys and form a valid betrothal between Arianne to Viserys. He then sat back and did nothing, as he knew he could gain more support rallying Targaryan supporters to defeat Blackfyres, than he would trying to replay Robert's Rebellion by declaring for Viserys and hoping more Targaryans loyalists would flock to him than they did to Rhaegar. So Varys, as I say, (and unwittingly, Littlefinger) was doing Doran's work for him by destroying Robert's Rebellion and his allies from within, enabling Doran to win more Targaryan supporters versus a more palatable enemy- the Blackfyres. They could win vs the Blackfyres, they had just lost versus Robert.

I wouldn't call the age thing a flaw, but each to his own. Iv'e found out Ran asked GRRM to confirm /establish various facts before putting it on an App. Some characters don't have DOB's, but people had been asking specifically after Darkstar's so it was important for GRRM to confirm his age. So presumably, GRRM sat down, thought about it, and ended up choosing to give them an "age range" which is unprecedented I think. Given how many characters ages he has made up and established (literally thousands) this non-committal attitude seems, to my mind, unusual. Further, as I say, depending on when Visery's name day fell he could have technically squeezed into that non-committal vague age bracket by turning 26 late on in 300. As you know, over the span of 2 calendar years you can be 3 ages, or more appropriately, over the course of 25 calendar years, you can be classified as 26 different ages so if you were suspicious, it does look like GRRM was trying to put off the idea that Viserys and Darkstar could be the same age without ruling it out.

Finally, Gerrold Dayne is the person listed and given an age, not "Darkstar". Gerold Dayne, if my theory is correct, is the guy who died at the start of the series, a guy who only had to "look" like Viserys. His actual age isn't that relevant because he was pretending to be someone else, and he didn't last very long. Gerold Dayne doesn't have to be the same age as Viserys because they are two different people who were swapped. The age difference is small enough for mistaken identity to be very possible. So if you were to ask GRRM what "Darkstar's" DOB was, then in theory- it is confirmed specifically if you believe him to be Viserys. He was born in 275.

The next suspicion- as a young man, what is he doing as head of a cadet branch? Presumably, he has no elder male family member at High Hermitage (at the very least), as that man would be head of the Cadet Branch, not Gerold. The implication is, he is the only Dayne in High Hermitage. So he has a household. When did he gain this household? Presumably, the cadet branch was established in his lifetime as he is the head of it, and he is a young man. Either than, or his parents died long ago after the Cadet Branch had been established, but they must be dead, because they would be head of that branch otherwise. So we have two possibilities.

What if:

1) the real Gerold Dayne lived in Starfall, his parents died, and their deaths freed up the possibility for Doran to carry out this deception. Gerold then went with Oberyn to Braavos, then Oberyn came back with Viserys, and established a brand new house for him with his own men- away from the other Daynes in Dorne (which basically, amounts to...very few- his Aunt?) as some sort of favouritism or reward for services rendered across the narrow sea, with a household who don't know that this is actually the King's private retreat. Therefore, no-one's silence need be bought because his new household never knew the original Gerold. Throw in some "bad blood" between himself and the remaining Daynes (so few known!) and you have an excuse never to meet his alleged aunt in person. Either that, or he is always busy. It's quite easy to avoid seeing family if you don' t live with them.

2) the branch was established by his relatives. They died. Gerold Dayne went to Braavos, Viserys returned, under Oberyns' direction, the old household was dismissed, and a new household was appointed- presumably under the smokescreen that he is an arse and never liked the old household.

Finally, can you really destroy an entire house, root and branch with a sword? Are we to imagine Darkstar is so dangerous that he could take on the entire Yronwood army with a sword because it's really sharp? I think there are limits to what a sword can do! It's interesting that the Yronwoods are the ones named as the house he could destroy- or may want- to destroy. If he was indeed Viserys Targaryan, then he would know the Yronwoods were Blackfyre sympathisers. I think he is flexing his ego to Arianne by claiming in roundabout words that if he wanted to destroy the Yronwoods root and stem, he could declare himself, call the Yronwoods Blackfyre traitors, and use the Martells to wipe them out. But I think that would be his ego and desires talking. He is the most dangerous man in Dorne from Doran's perspective because he is the one person who can upset Doran's plans by forcing Doran to play his hand too soon and risk his whole family's life. By revealing Doran had kept Viserys in Dorne secretly, he would be condemning Doran to being a traitor in the eyes of Varys and Aegon, Cersei and Tommen.

I think I made this point before, I can't remember, but it would add a delicious layer to the line "He is no Dragon, Fire cannot kill a Dragon". We know the second part to be a myth- after all a King died by swallowing Wildfire- and we had absolutely no reason to doubt that he was a Targaryan at the start of the series, so when we learn that Targaryans can indeed be harmed by fire, we can dismiss her argument entirely- that Viserys was a Dragon, and that Dragons can be harmed by fire. Foolish Dany.

but GRRM continually plays with meaning, and it would be very apt for the first part of that sentence to be absolutely on the money, but for the wrong reason. We have been told he is no Dragon, we have been told he is less than the shadow of a snake (note, Dragons are more commonly associated with worms, not snakes, and Snakes are associated with Oberyn, and Dorne who could have been the man behind the switch, in Braavos when the pact was made, but we have taken his identity on face value and ignored these clues.

I really have yet to think long and hard about Dany's chapters and her "brothers" behaviour. That would be interesting to explore as a means of shoring up this theory, because I think I have (suprisingly) covered most bases now. I thought I would come unstuck long ago!

[WilliamWesterosiWallace]

You make really good points, but still:

1) The idea that Doran knows about Aegon is cool, and I would like it to be true, but if you don't considerate the chapter from TWOW that was pre-released, there is no connection between Aegon-Doran. I think he is a secret for everyone in Westeros because it would be too risky to tell anyone - on the same grounds of nº 2

2) I didn't mea Ashara Dayne when I talked about Gerold, I meant anyone that ever knew Gerold. If we are to suppose that he lived in a black cell all his life and no one ever saw him, that would be stupid. There are servants on Starfall(thanks for the name, I had forgotten), highborn people from other houses that knew him, a lot of smallfolk near his house. It's not like you can change a kid without notice, and if someone from his household found out that Gerold is indeed Viserys, they would tell it to Robert on the exact instant, and maybe even win a lordship for it. Seriously, swapping people is hard.

For example, one of the main facts that supported the Euron=Daario theory was that no one in Yunkai knew Euron, and no one on the Iron Islands knew Daario. In this case, everyone in Starfall has already seen the little lord, so it's kind of hard to imagine that they would all keep quiet. It's like trying to trade 8-year-old Robb Stark for 8-year-old Jon and hope no one would notice. In this case, they are brothers, and look kinda like the other, but people would know. It's not like Viserys and Gerold were twins.

3) I don't think that going insane gets you so far as to know things like the things Viserys told Dany. All that stuff about dragons, and THEIR PARENTS, and KL, and a lot of things that were later checked with Barristan (see Rhaegar's stories) and confirmed.

4) You keep saying that Doran was doing nothing, and that it was a flaw on his plan. But tell me, what COULD Doran do? Viserys was pretty useless to him without the army, and Doran, as I said earlier, possibly was raising the dragon houses and making connections, and most importantly, waiting for the ripest time. Tell me, is there a better time than the end of ADWD, where Tywin and Kevan are dead, crazy bitch Cersei is in command, Lady Nym is on the small council and Arianne is safe at home, the Tyrells are starting to feel weird about the Lannisters, Stannis is freezing in the north, the Vale stands silent, and the Riverlands are ruined? Were Viserys alive then, I would think Doran would ship him home and get people to fight for him. On the start of AGOT and before, it was death to say "Targaryen" aloud.

5) About the age thing, it seems to me that GRRM just didn't want to contradict himself, having to excuse himself later. Perhaps it is that he hasn't agreed with himself about the date yet. It doesn't have to mean that Gerold is someone else because someone else was born in the same year he was.

That is my opinion, at least.

[The Mad Wolf]

Nice work

[The Fourth Head]

You make really good points, but still:

1) The idea that Doran knows about Aegon is cool, and I would like it to be true, but if you don't considerate the chapter from TWOW that was pre-released, there is no connection between Aegon-Doran. I think he is a secret for everyone in Westeros because it would be too risky to tell anyone - on the same grounds of nº 2

2) I didn't mea Ashara Dayne when I talked about Gerold, I meant anyone that ever knew Gerold. If we are to suppose that he lived in a black cell all his life and no one ever saw him, that would be stupid. There are servants on Starfall(thanks for the name, I had forgotten), highborn people from other houses that knew him, a lot of smallfolk near his house. It's not like you can change a kid without notice, and if someone from his household found out that Gerold is indeed Viserys, they would tell it to Robert on the exact instant, and maybe even win a lordship for it. Seriously, swapping people is hard.

For example, one of the main facts that supported the Euron=Daario theory was that no one in Yunkai knew Euron, and no one on the Iron Islands knew Daario. In this case, everyone in Starfall has already seen the little lord, so it's kind of hard to imagine that they would all keep quiet. It's like trying to trade 8-year-old Robb Stark for 8-year-old Jon and hope no one would notice. In this case, they are brothers, and look kinda like the other, but people would know. It's not like Viserys and Gerold were twins.

3) I don't think that going insane gets you so far as to know things like the things Viserys told Dany. All that stuff about dragons, and THEIR PARENTS, and KL, and a lot of things that were later checked with Barristan (see Rhaegar's stories) and confirmed.

4) You keep saying that Doran was doing nothing, and that it was a flaw on his plan. But tell me, what COULD Doran do? Viserys was pretty useless to him without the army, and Doran, as I said earlier, possibly was raising the dragon houses and making connections, and most importantly, waiting for the ripest time. Tell me, is there a better time than the end of ADWD, where Tywin and Kevan are dead, crazy bitch Cersei is in command, Lady Nym is on the small council and Arianne is safe at home, the Tyrells are starting to feel weird about the Lannisters, Stannis is freezing in the north, the Vale stands silent, and the Riverlands are ruined? Were Viserys alive then, I would think Doran would ship him home and get people to fight for him. On the start of AGOT and before, it was death to say "Targaryen" aloud.

5) About the age thing, it seems to me that GRRM just didn't want to contradict himself, having to excuse himself later. Perhaps it is that he hasn't agreed with himself about the date yet. It doesn't have to mean that Gerold is someone else because someone else was born in the same year he was.

That is my opinion, at least.

1) I try not to pore over TWOW chapters too much, but I recall

the chapters were from Arianne's POV on her journey to seek out Aegon?

That would be consistent with the theory that Doran doesn't fully trust Arianne. So off-screen, he feigned a lack of foresight, he told her what identifying marks he would expect his nephew to have, told her to stay safe, and left her to get on with it. But still, he hinted that he knew of the GC fleet, knew they had Elephants, and knew they could conceal a young Dragon aboard. So I find it impossible to believe that he has just found out, otherwise he would never have specified "young Dragon" long prior to Aegon landing in Westeros. He knew.

2) Well it's not called "High Hermitage" for no reason :) it's a retreat, up in the mountains for a Hermit. If no-one visits him, and he never visits Starfall, he is beyond doubt. He can mingle with younger people who never knew the original. Still- we don't know the original do we? We don't know what Gerold Daynes life was like before he was 8. Perhaps he had been squiring for Oberyn for a few years and not been known in Dorne? What seems clear is that his parents are dead.

As for his household, I'm not so sure he would be sold out if they found out. Dorne and the Martells were very pro-Targ, and selling a Targaryan out to Robert would have been very dangerous and not in keeping with the desires of the region. They would have to flee Dorne and betray their people. Doran would, I'm sure, have ensured only the most loyal and trustworthy people would be entrusted to staff High Hermitage, and even then, we may only be taking about a small handful of people- how many people does he need? Ensuring they were very well paid would seal the deal. To claim the true Viserys was in High Hermitage could also be called out as a lie by Doran by claiming the real Viserys was in Essos with Dany, and the treasonous staff member would be playing a dangerous game indeed. How would he even get the message out to Robert? Would a denial, a claim that he was Gerrold, and a claim that the staff member was a malcontent seeking riches be an adequate bluff? How would Robert prove otherwise?

3) I'm not sure of what specific stories Viserys told Dany that only he would have known? Remember, Elia was Rhaegar's wife- she was Aerys daughter in law. She was Rhaella's daughter in law- they would have shared meals, spent a lot of time in eachother's company, confided in one another. She had inside info she would have shared with Oberyn, and Doran as only siblings do regarding other members of the family- not to betray them but just- gossip and chit chat. Elia would have lived with Viserys, and seen everything he saw, known everything he knew. I don't know whether Oberyn was at court, or if he visited his sister and spent a lot of time around Viserys, but the Martells were part of the royal family and basically, had plenty of opportunities to be exposed to Viserys, his upbringing, and his probable knowledge.

4) I think with Viserys in Dorne or in Essos, it's the same deal. Declare without allies and it's game over. Robert won the rebellion for a reason- he had more supporters than the Targaryans. So what did Doran do? Could he not have got someone on the small council LONG before now? Why wait 17 years to take that initiative? Could he not have tried to secure Dany a marriage alliance of greater political benefit? or Quentyn? Surely a prize- the eldest son of the Prince of Dorne- yet he turned 18 and still remained unbetrothed. So my theory is that his inaction was because he knew of Varys plan- he knew Varys was undermining Robert's allies from within, he didn't need an informant on the council because Varys was doing all the hard work, and he knew Aegon being a Blackfyre after Varys destroys all other claimants would turn this from a Robert vs Targ thing to a Blackfyre vs Targ thing. This is why I think he waited. He was waiting for the ripest time, but he wasn't just crossing his fingers- he had an idea where it was going with Varys and Aegon.

5) I don't know- The only way it can be relevant to his story going forward is if his history and identity is very relevant. If it was irrelevant, he could have answered Ran and Lynda's request, committed to aged 26 / 27 whatever- and used that fact to draw back on in future, and rolled with it- he has a database with all facts collected, so I don't see the diffference between committing to a DOB for Dakstar, and committing to a DOB for Arianne, say, unless his history and identity is very important, and it's something he doesn't want to narrow down and start making too obvious. And and if it were really important, you would imagine he knows the answer and isn't committing to deliberately obfuscate the facts.

But as I say, Gerrold Dayne is in theory, the chap we saw at the start- who is already dead, so his DOB IS irrelevant, except to indicate that is age is similar to that of Viserys- who is a different person, and who only needs to pass as him- aged 8 / 9 / 10 - so long as they are of the same visual age, that would be sufficient. This isn't about baby swapping- this is about child swapping, and that opens up a wider band of flexibility.

[WilliamWesterosiWallace]

Good points, the theory gets better every new post :)

But still...

1) "Young dragon" can be taken as ambiguous, or just refering to a dragon puppy. Remember Balerion could eat a bull with one bite, and Drogon can't gulp a sheep in one take.

2) Given the opportuniy, what would the common person choose: A lifetime of servitude in a castle with what seems to be the most pretencious lad ever, just for a lot of gold, or moving for another country to get your own castle, and your own lot of gold?

3) Viserys tells Dany a lot of stuff about KL, Dragonstone, basically, about Westeros. Dany doesn't specify too much except when talking about Rhaegar - my #1 point. How on earth would Gerold Dayne know so much about Rhaegar as to compare his knowledge to a Kingsguard who watched Rhaegar's whole life?

4) Dorne isn't so beloved of Robert, since they were the biggest dragon supporters on RR. That is why he couldn't put a Martell on the small council all the time. Besides, he tried to put one there in ASOS and we saw how that turned out.

5) Gerold Dayne's age is the crucial bit to your theory, because he has to be 7-8 years old on the year you claim he and Viserys were swapped. Or else it'd be obvious: You take a 5 year old, come back with him a month later and he is already eight?

About the sword on the other post, forgot to answer that. I'm not saying that Dawn makes him invincible, I'm saying that Dawn is amongst a lot of Dayne stuff that he can/will/has get: Castle, lands, bannermen, giant importance in the affairs of Dorne, belic power, AND an awesome sword makes him even more of a tough enemy, right? Making him the most dangerous lord in Dorne because he has the power of a big lord and of a great fighter.

Still, my opinion...

[The Fourth Head]

Good points, the theory gets better every new post :)

But still...

1) "Young dragon" can be taken as ambiguous, or just refering to a dragon puppy. Remember Balerion could eat a bull with one bite, and Drogon can't gulp a sheep in one take.

2) Given the opportuniy, what would the common person choose: A lifetime of servitude in a castle with what seems to be the most pretencious lad ever, just for a lot of gold, or moving for another country to get your own castle, and your own lot of gold?

3) Viserys tells Dany a lot of stuff about KL, Dragonstone, basically, about Westeros. Dany doesn't specify too much except when talking about Rhaegar - my #1 point. How on earth would Gerold Dayne know so much about Rhaegar as to compare his knowledge to a Kingsguard who watched Rhaegar's whole life?

4) Dorne isn't so beloved of Robert, since they were the biggest dragon supporters on RR. That is why he couldn't put a Martell on the small council all the time. Besides, he tried to put one there in ASOS and we saw how that turned out.

5) Gerold Dayne's age is the crucial bit to your theory, because he has to be 7-8 years old on the year you claim he and Viserys were swapped. Or else it'd be obvious: You take a 5 year old, come back with him a month later and he is already eight?

About the sword on the other post, forgot to answer that. I'm not saying that Dawn makes him invincible, I'm saying that Dawn is amongst a lot of Dayne stuff that he can/will/has get: Castle, lands, bannermen, giant importance in the affairs of Dorne, belic power, AND an awesome sword makes him even more of a tough enemy, right? Making him the most dangerous lord in Dorne because he has the power of a big lord and of a great fighter.

Still, my opinion...

Thanks :) by putting it through the ringer, it can only either get better or be debunked- both suit me better than clinging to a theory that doesn't work without knowing why.

1) So you think he could have been talking literally about Dany's dragons, and had no idea about Aegon, and that it's a very ironic line from Doran as in fact, a young Dragon really was stowed aboard those GC ships in secret? Possible- but very unlikely IMO. The main issue I have with that is why would he be talking in singular terms? One Dragon stowed away when he knows Dany has three? I would expect Doran would have allowed for the possibility of more Dragons "perhaps a young dragon or three?" "perhaps Dragons could be stowed away". Instead- it is "a young Dragon" (I am going entirely off memory here though I should warn you)

Another reason it doesn't make much sense is that he must surely know how large and dangerous these Dragons are becoming based on rumours and talk. Assuming a Dragon could be stowed away on a wooden ship in secret safely is a stretch. I also wonder what would lead him to believe that Dany, or one of her Dragons had set out from Volantis in secret when he has a Son in that area of the world?

By disbelieving that Doran knew about young Aegon's presence on the Rhoyne- where his people came from, where his wife had returned via, you are disbelieving the theory that Septa Lemore is actually Tyene's mother- after all, Oberyn slept with a septa, and it means you are sceptical that Doran knew of Aegon despite having at least 3 contacts in Essos. I don't see why you would address one aspect of the theory- that Doran could have been referring to real dragons and doesn't behave like he knew in advance to Arianne- and not all?

2) I'm assuming the best placed person to get a message out is a Maester. The Maester is sworn to serve the Lord of High Hermitage, so he would be breaking his vows. He is sworn to serve- and I think it is unprecedented for Maesters to sell out their sworn Lord or King just to avoid having to serve an entitled Lord in order to gain lands. How many Land owning former Maesters do we know of? Even Lewin was technically committing "treason" when he sent those ravens out to summon the banners, but Lewin was sworn to Winterfell, not the Crown. He then served Theon loyally because Theon was the lord of Winterfell, regardless of his misgivings. Further- Viserys would arguably be the lawful king of the 7 kingdoms- not Robert, so if he did have a shred of patriotism in him, then by all accounts, Viserys deserved his loyalty. Indeed, the main reason Viserys wasn't backed was because he was running for his life and his presence was known, and the Dragonstone garrison knew Robert was coming and were scared for their lives. None of that would apply in High Hermitage so there would be no fear factor involved- just greed, because Robert doesn't know. If a maester really was that greedy, why agree to be a Maester and commit to a life of servitude in the first place? If Maesters did this sort of thing regularly, no lord would ever trust a Maester from the Citadel. But ok- the Maester could betray him. Let's assume Robert took his message seriously- Robert either challenges Doran to produce "Darkstar" at court- which results in the Maester's imminent death for treachery by Doran or Viserys- or he sends a force to High Hermitage to arrest Viserys, by which point, the Maester is rumbled and is killed by Viserys as the prime suspect. Further- the only way he would get away with it would be to sneak out of the Castle without anyone's knowledge. What reason would a Maester have for trying to sneak out of High Hermitage without Darkstar's consent? Are to assume that he will be able to travel down a solitary mountain pass in secret without detection, or without his presence being missed? I think all this is highly unlikely, especially as he has no guarantee the King will even believe him. It's just too risky and pretty out of character. People only take these kind of risks when they fear for their lives, not out of sheer greed, and as I say, a Maester doesn't fit that model. Finally I would have thought Doran would have spies watching spies watching spies at High Hermitage if he had the king in secret there. The road would certainly be watched.

3) Can you please be more specific? What did Viserys know about Rhaegar that Ser Barristan corroborated and that Gerold could not have known, or wasn't something Elia or Oberyn could have known and passed on to Gerold?

There is also the question of Gerold's whereabouts before the Rebellion. As a pretty boy of a highborn family, with Im guessing perhaps at this stage, no parents, and no claim to Starfall, and no need to be in Dorne, why not squire for someone in the Red Keep? Why not squire for Oberyn? Daemon Sand did it for a while and he fits that description too. So Gerold and Oberyn could have been as thick as thieves long before Roberts Rebellion

4) true, but Robert was very gracious in victory and surely would have desired to welcome Dorne back into the fold rather than leave them to sulk and brood and plot having just brought about over the death of their family. I would have though as part of a settlement with Jon, Doran would have pushed for terms- ie a member on the council rather than capitulating based on nothing more than an offering of a Dornish knight's bones. Clearly- Jon was prepared to make concessions- and I would have though this would have been of benefit to Doran. Further, once Tyrion offers them a seat, they don't take it for ages until Oberyn takes it up, but only as an excuse to kill the Mountain, not to plot. Once Oberyn dies, no replacement was sent for a fair while, so it smacks of a sloppy, lazy, sporadic pursuit of vengeance without accepting that he knew what Varys was playing at and was content to let him get on with it without needing his own conspicuous spy in the keep playing political games.

5) where did the age of 5 come from? At the time of Robert's Rebellion, Visery was 8, and Gerold Dayne was approximately between 9 and 12. I accept passing an 8 year old off as a 12 year old is unlikely, unless the 12 year old was particularly small for his age, but who can tell the differenc ebetween an 8 year old and a 9 year old? The key wouldn't be their exact age- the key would be if they looked similar, and an 8 year old and a 10 year old could look very similar indeed. Stick one in a Hermit Castle, and the other in Essos, and you have a passable means of concealing a king and protecting them.

[WilliamWesterosiWallace]

Putting theorys through the test is why we're here :)

But still...

1) Doran was talking about a single ship. the quote goes kinda like "A big ship can hide a young dragon in its cabins." or something like that with boat terms. That's why I think he means dragons. He is giving an example of how a dragon can fit in a boat.

On the chapter from TWOW Arianne actually interpretates his questions as a "Where is my son?!" deal. On that sequence, Doran is looking for clues of Quentyn beign in the galleys. And about the Dragons, well, Dany reports some small trouble on the dragon's first trip on ship. You'd think they have learned not to burn everything there by now. And, even if they didn't, they would fly along with the galleys instead of beign within them, just as the first time.

And rumors are rumors. We get all kinds of rumors on the series, and all of them are misleading, even when true. Example, Sansa's escape from KL. She grew bat wings, shiftshaped into a winged wolf and... flew away. Yeah.

2) I didn't mean a Maester, I meant anyone. The guy who scrubs the floor, the girl who washes the clothes, the stableboy, the armorer, a guard, ANYONE who has seen before-trip-Gerold and after-trip-Viserys. I say again, they are not twins. People would notice. About the "spies watching spies" thing, cool, that works. But, if one of them GOES to KL in person, calls anyone who knew Viserys (Barristan, Pycelle, Cersei, Varys, Jaime, Tywin, a lot of people who worked in the castle, seriously anyone who dated back to the Targaryen rule) and showed them "Darkstar" when he was still 8-10 years old and still looked like the child they remembered, there you have your irrefutable proof. And besides, Doran and Oberyn aren't almighty gods to know every little place their people go. So it is far fatched to assume they could know someone would betray them like that.

3) Viserys tells Dany everything about Rhaegar - Torneys, details, speeches, life and death. He knows every little detail of it and yes, someone else could teach it to Gerold, but I doubt that you can learn a thing at 8-years-old and still know it to the details when you're 13-14(Dany would be 5-6 then, the age for stories). Barristan talks to Dany about Rhaegar like they both knew him, and those details are important. But well, there are ways to contradict that, so for the good of not confusing the arguments, let's assume that the things Viserys told Dany were kind of common knowledge.

About the whole squire in KL thing, it is a good theory, but it lacks one thing: Textual evidence. If someone doesn't tell us that Oberyn had Gerold as a squire, or that he lived at KL for some time, we can't ust assume it. My biggest issue with believing a Doran-Varys connection is that - No one hints at it in the books. So, if you have a quote to stand for your theory, remember to put it. The best theories have the books to back them up.

4) The bones of a Dornish prince. Besides, Robert let they stay as overlords of Dorne and didn't take a mile of land for anyone else, so you can say it's a fair deal, right? Besides, the time between Oberyn's death and Lady Nym's departure is - I think - around 4-6 months. They were waiting for the Mountain's head to arrive in Dorne so the new council member could join Ser Balon on the trip.

5) The 5 year old thing was an example. What I meant is that you would need kids that at least look the same age, or else it would be obvious. Example: Gerold is eleven years old. He goes with Oberyn for two months. When he returns he is eight. Confusing, right? They have to be the same age, or around thhe same age, so that Darkstar and Viserys can grow at the same time. It's a matter of logic: Gerold can't be 10-11 when Viserys is 8-9, or else one would grow faster then the other and generate confusion.

Every repost your theory gets better :) The thread is already ten pages though, you should compilate the results of previous arguments that you have or not debunked, and post them anew. Helps to keep track of the things beign said, proved, or disproved.

[angie_valo]

Im new on the site and I dont know the rules, but i have read every single post about this theory and I just think is amazing. Hope some of this is true...wether is Gerold Dayne is Viserys or Aegon. Doing some search on another theories I found this, which I believe is very interesting and unknown... take a look!!

Doran plays to win, whether at cyvasse or the game of thrones. George R.R. Martin

http://www.asshai.com/foro/viewtopic.php?t=4726&postdays=0&postorder=asc&start=15

[Sandors socks]

God bless cannabis.