My new big theory about Dorne & Aegon (& stuff)

[The Summer Islander]

This is actually a good theory. Better than most I have read and I've bee lurking for quite sometime reading theories. I like the idea that Oberyn dying was part of the long term plan. It sucks that he had to die though. I just can't wait to see what more Doran has planned if he really is this kinda genius. I love characters like Doran, Littlefinger, Tyrion, etc. They have such great minds. Evil depending on the situation but great.

[Mad Maj]

I was so happy to find this thread! I posted my similar theory earlier today in the Dialog at the Tower of Joy thread, and was starting to think maybe I'm just crazy and the only one who thinks this . . . I just now jumped out of bed with the realization that the fake Aegon, Little Griff, is actually a decoy. That's why he is with a knight named Duck - right?

[The Bastard of Summer]

I was so happy to find this thread! I posted my similar theory earlier today in the Dialog at the Tower of Joy thread, and was starting to think maybe I'm just crazy and the only one who thinks this . . . I just now jumped out of bed with the realization that the fake Aegon, Little Griff, is actually a decoy. That's why he is with a knight named Duck - right?

I would love to read you theory

[Volantis]

Thank Cannabis, I've figured it out!

I love ASoIaF, but two things about it have been bothering me quite a bit.

1. USELESS DORNISH DORKS WASTING OUR TIME
   

The major Dornish characters are all screw-ups and failures, and yet so much text is wasted on them and their boring lives.

Prince Doran, of whom by the end of AFfC we had been led to believe is actually a master long-term strategist and planner of "fire and bloody" vengeance, turns out to be just a bloated dumb-ass with a terrible plan. He waited 20 years for THAT?

And his "sun" Quentyn is a hapless dork from the get-go who ultimately earns a Darwin Award for his death by brain-dead dragon taming plan. Quentyn was just a dim-witted chump with little chance of success. When he died, we were all rightfully like “uhh… what was the point?”

Then there's "Darkstar" Gerold Dayne, who reads more like a character from a cheesy vampire thriller than a compelling Westeros player of the game.

I KNOW that GRRM is a great writer that should know not to waste so much time and book space on such boring, inept, inconsequential characters like Doran and Quentyn Martell and Darkstar Dayne. And yet he did.

Why oh why did GRRM make us suffer these Dornish fools for so long, with no plausible hope of them ever being relevant, while we missed reading about more interesting characters???

This bothered me. But now I understand.

2. VARYS'S LIE TO DYING KEVAN

We select forum dwellers, being as clever as we are, long ago figured out that Varys lied to a dying Kevan about Aegon Targaryen's return. After all, "Aegon" is obviously secretly of black dragon's blood, and Varys and Illyrio are clearly still fighting the Blackfyre rebellion. I swallowed this “Aegon Blackfyre” theory hook, line, and sinker. Everything about it just makes sense.

But if this theory is true, why did Varys lie to poor dying Kevan? It gains him nothing. It just seems pointlessly cruel for Varys to murder Kevan, then rub it in by lying to him about Aerys Targaryen’s return.

This glaring inconsistency was pointed out by skeptics of the Aegon Blackfyre theory, to whom believers offered the not-very-convincing explanations that Varys lied because of the little birds present or because "that's just what he does".

I tried to swallow these explanations, but I was left with strong nagging doubt about their validity. They are not very convincing, and we know that everything Varys does is calculated and with purpose.

How could I reconcile Varys's cruel pointless lie to a murdered good man, and my belief that Varys was truly a loyal and admirable member of Team Blackfyre?

This bothered me. But now I understand.

The space-wasting-Dornish and inexplicably-lying-Varys problems were solved when I linked them together in my mind after some good vape.

Here are my startling conclusions:

CONCLUSION 1: Darkstar = the real Aegon Targaryen

Reasoning:

• Gerold is from a minor Dayne offshoot house and should be beneath the notice of the Prince of Dorne. However not only does Doran know him, he very oddly names him the “most dangerous man in Dorne”.
  

We really doubt that Gerold is so dangerous due to his unbelievable battle skill; after all he failed to kill a little girl and then ran away.

No, there must definitely be something else that makes him dangerous. It’s either something he knows (but what super-dangerous secret could a minor Dornish lordling have?); or because of WHO HE REALLY IS. The latter is more credible and makes more sense.

The most simple and logical conclusion is that Gerold Dayne is really someone else, someone important and dangerous.

This alone does not prove that Gerold is Aegon, but he clearly is much more than he pretends to be.

• Gerold has “Targy” good looks. This is no big deal, right? After all, the Daynes are noted as good-looking and sharing some Targaryen physical characteristcs. (See Ashara.) That doesn’t make them of dragons’ blood, though. Gerold is a Dayne, so his Targy looks are not surprising.
  

Or are they? If you were Doran hiding the real Aegon, wouldn’t you hide him as a “Dayne” in order to draw less suspicion about his looks? Also, wouldn’t you put him with a minor Dayne house to further make him an anonymous nobody, not worthy of attention?

In fact, were you hiding Aegon Targaryen in Dorne, calling him “Dayne” and raising him in a lesser branch of the house makes perfect sense. This alone does not prove that Gerold is Aegon, but it is clearly a very good cover for a potential secret Aegon.

• Doran’s long-term master plan has been to marry his daughter to the real Targaryen heir, then rain hell on the usurpers. This plan seemingly died when pathetic Viserys died. It really wasn’t a good plan, given the unlikelihood of Viserys surviving Robert’s knives or Dothraki hordes or living but not turning out to be a total douchebag.
  

That was the sorry plot that he waited 20 years to hatch, while enduring years of his family calling him a do-nothing pussy? Really? For Doran to wait so long to get Dorne’s vengeance based on such a shitty plan strains credibility. Maybe Doran is just stupid, eh?

But I doubt he is. There’s a reason we got so much of him in AFfC and why that book left us believing he is a genius long-term player of the game.

No, Doran cannot be the idiot he appears to be. The real Targaryen heir had to be elsewhere, better protected and groomed for Doran to plot to eventually marry him to his daughter. Otherwise Doran’s arc in AFfC was just stupid and a waste of time.

This means that Doran really had to have been planning to marry his daughter to the real heir (Aegon Targaryen), not the obviously dead-man-walking dolt Viserys. So Doran must have known about Aegon living. So Doran and hidden Aegon definitely ARE LINKED.

This alone does not prove that Gerold is Aegon, but it does indicate that Doran knows about Aegon living and is part of the secret Aegon plot.

You thought that GRRM’s “twist” of Aegon being alive was just a set up for the “anti-twist” of “Aegon” really being a Blackfyre. Hah. In fact GRRM is setting us up for a real “double twist” of our balls – both are true!

What this conclusion explains:

• why Doran is so confident in his long-term plan that he endures his family’s mockery for years.
  
• why Doran calls Darkstar “the most dangerous man in Dorne”.
  
• why Darkstar is moody and angry and “of the dark” (he knows who he is and that he is “dead” to the world, thus “of the dark”.)
  
• why Darkstar gets so upset about being compared to his famous “cousin” Arthur Dayne. If a Dayne, he would more likely be proud of his cousin, if a bit jealous. But he is inappropriately resentful of Arthur. This makes more sense when we accept that Darkstar is in fact the rightful Targaryen King; of course it annoys him to just be in the shadow of some Dornish knight.
  

CONCLUSION 2: Varys didn't lie to Kevan.

Evidence

• The simplest explanation for Varys’s speech to dying Kevan is that he was telling the truth. It makes more sense than stretching believability to justify his lying. But since “Young Griff” is most likely the son of Illyrio and his Blackfyre wife just posing as the real Aegon, and since Varys surely knows this, there must be a REAL LIVE AEGON somewhere that Varys knows about. Otherwise he lied to Kevan, but his lying is too illogical to swallow; so he told the truth.
  

This alone does not prove that Gerold is Aegon, but it does indicate that the real Aegon does live and is safely hidden away somewhere. And we do not believe that Young Griff is the real Aegon, so the real Aegon must be someone else.

CONCLUSION 3: Doran Martell is a sick genius that sacrificed his own son in his game.

Reasoning

• After Viserys died, supposedly Doran needed a new plan to return the Targaryen’s to power, so he sent his hapless son and some pathetic companions to marry Dany and bring home her dragons to Dorne. This plan is so pathetic and stupid, it is not credible that someone of Doran’s intellect would rely on it.
  

Quentyn’s chapters in ADwD just showed us that he was an ugly, not-very-bright, loyal, but incompetent prince, accompanied by less than the best & brightest of Dorne. When he dies, we are not surprised, as everything he does is retarded.

ADwD readers were frustrated at the “pointless” Quentyn chapters, which took up valuable book space while conclusions to more interesting story arcs were pushed off to TWoW.

I don’t believe that a writer of GRRM’s caliber would waste space on Quentyn’s unawesome adventure if it was pointless. So it wasn’t pointless. But what point could it have served?

Some readers put forth the theory that the point of Quentyn was just to free Dany’s dragons from their chains. Ummm… okay, but that could’ve been accomplished via other literary devices that did not waste so much of our time. No, this cannot be the point of Quentyn’s story; there must be another one.

It was also proposed that the purpose of Quentyn’s tale was to set up bad blood between Dany and Dorne. Ummmm… maybe, but I’m not buying it. I think Doran is too smart to turn on Dany just because Quentyn died. It wasn’t really Dany’s fault at all. No, there must be another purpose.

Was the purpose to show that Doran’s plan of sending Quentyn to Dany was just stupid? No, I don’t believe Doran is stupid. So there is only one remaining credible explanation of the purpose of Doran sending Quentyn to Dany, and it is shocking.

Doran sent Quentyn off to die on a fool’s mission.

Surely Doran knew that his son is an incompetent loser with little success of surviving the trip to Slaver’s Bay and bringing home Dany & her dragons. Doran knew that most likely Quentyn would fail and die. (If Quentyn were to somehow succeed, well – BONUS! But Doran couldn’t have been counting on that.)

He expected Quentyn to fail and probably die. So he effectively sent him off to die.

Why? For one, he lets his ineffectual son die in a heroic quest, which is a good death. For Doran, this is a sort of kindness to his son. But more importantly, he used his son as a pawn to win Dany and her dragons (for Aegon and Dorne).

He knew Quentyn wouldn’t bring back the dragons. He also knew that Quentyn’s death would most likely cause Dany to feel some regret and to recognize what a good ally Dorne would have been, even if she couldn’t marry Quentyn. (Dany’s regret and sympathy would be greater if Quentyn died; perhaps his “false coin” companion Drinkwater or whatever his name is was tasked by Doran to make sure Quent died.)

By sacrificing Quentyn, he moved closer to an alliance with Dany.

Doran reasons that when he reveals Aegon/Darkstar as alive, allied with Dorne, and claiming the Iron Throne, then Dany will join her power and dragons with Aegon (and Dorne).

And then Doran will be able to truly rain “fire and blood” on his enemies.

CONCLUSION 4: Darkstar took Storm’s End, not Young Griff.

Reasoning:

• The Arianne sample AWoW chapter informs us that Aegon has taken Storm’s End. But how? We know how hard Storm’s End is to take if you don’t have magic shadow assassins, which Aegon Blackfyre/Young Griff and Jon Connington certainly don’t have. So how did they take it? It must have been through subterfuge.
  

But what tricks would this group have to “trick” Storm’s End, which must be held now by powerful forces, and take the castle by subterfuge? Uhhhh…. GRRM could think of some, but they would probably strain credibility.

Storm’s End was more likely taken with the help of forces outside of JC’s band. It was likely taken by the real Aegon Targaryen (Darkstar) posing as Gerold Dayne, knight of Dorne and ally to Storm’s End. much more able to trick the lords of Storm End then JC's band. This makes far more sense to me than any other potential explanation.

CONCLUSION 5: Young Griff was a back-up plan.

Reasoning:

• If Doran/Varys have the real Aegon in Dorne, then what’s the deal with Young Griff Blackfyre? Simple – he is the back-up plan in case something happened to Darkstar. Plotters like Doran and Varys would have a good back-up plan.
  

Varys tells Kevan that Aegon was raised to be a good leader. We know that Young Griff was raised this way. It is not hard to imagine that so was Darkstar.

Young Griff is just another pawn in Doran & Varys’s game.

CONCLUSION 6: Varys and Doran played Illyrio and Connington.

Reasoning:

• Illyrio wants Young Griff on the throne out of love for his dead Blackfyre wife. Illyrio and Varys are tight from their days in the hood together. Varys helps Illyrio because of their bond, but Varys is really just using Illyrio for his son as a back-up Aegon, and for his money, while Varys’s real plan is with Doran and Darkstar.
  

I can’t write anymore now. I realize this is not a full-fledged theory, and you can probably poke many holes in it, but I am convinced I am on to something.

There is NO WAY that the things that bugged me about the useless Dornish storylines and Varys’s lie were just bad writing by GRRM. He’s way too good for that.

There is more under the surface that we haven’t found yet. At least, not until today. J

And how much time did you spend to write this?

[Pope Killdragon]

Conclusion. 5 is juust silly. And Doran. Hoping Quent's death will win Dany's allegiance is even more stupid and pointless than his original plan.

[Desertwind]

I would like to address the proposed grounds for this flawed theory.

1. USELESS DORNISH DORKS WASTING OUR TIME"

Your description of all the major Dornish characters as "screw ups and failures" is exaggerated. For example, the strategic blunders of Ned, Robb, and Catelyn Stark all very clearly led to their deaths.

I think it was Littlefinger who tells Sansa in the fourth book that Cersei still didn't understand that in chess (or whatever game they play in Westeros), the smallest pieces could unravel one's entire plan by doing the unexpected. That's the problem of long, complicated strategies.

2. VARYS'S LIE TO DYING KEVAN

I'm not sure why Varys lied to Kevan. But I imagine that it would have been a little anticlimactic to confess that your supposedly noble and benevolent plan to save the Seven Kingdoms was based on an ugly lie.

But there's a simpler - and much more convincing - reason why Varys didn't divulge the truth about Aegon's ancestry to Kevan: Martin wanted to save that enormously significant revelation for later. He didn't want to confirm the readers' suspicions about Aegon/Young Griff at that juncture.

CONCLUSION 1: Darkstar = the real Aegon Targaryen

The two justifications you offer to suport this claim are (1) the fact that Doran knows (of) the Darkstar and (2) the Darkstar's appearance.

First of all, Dorne is the least populous of the Seven Kingdoms, so it's to be expected that be familiar with the members of a major House (even its cadet branch). I think that Doran knew who the rest of his daughters conspirators were, as well. Not only that, but a basic familiarity with the major houses in one's kingdom seems to be standard for the ruling houses of Westeros. For example, Jaime immediately knows who House Westerling is, what their seat is (the Crag, which he calls more a ruin than a castle) and their status (an old House, but impoverished) when he is informed of Robb's marriage to Jeyne.

Second, I don't understand the logic behind your other justification. You say, "not only does Doran know who the Darkstar is, but he calls him the most dangerous man in Dorne." Logically, shouldn't that statement be read in the reverse? It follows that Doran is familiar with the Darkstar precisely because he is the most dangerous man in Dorne. Indeed, Arianne explicitly says that her father would question her judgment if she took Ser Gerrold as her consort, which shows that (a) the Darkstar is a well known commodity in Dorne, and (B) the reason for that is because he's a psycho. And his behavior - repeatedly proposing the murder of an innocent child, then actually trying to carry out said murder after their party had already been caught - indicates that his reputation is well deserved. Finally, even if the Darkstar is only a scion of the cadet branch of House Dayne, House Dayne is still one of the oldest families in the Seven Kingdoms, period, and are thus likely to be well-known in Dorne (as the lesser branch of House Royce is well known in the Vale).

Yes, the Darkstar's appearance does resemble that of the Targaryan's. However, I think the same held true for Ser Arthur Dayne. Ashara might not have had the Valyrian-esque hair color, but she did have the violet eyes. That said, this isn't sufficient grounds to rebut your assertion, since it would make sense to hide the true Targaryan with a family, as you said.

You then say that Doran's plan to marry Arianne to Viserys had little likelihood of success, in light of Robert's assasins and the Dothraki. However, we've seen absolutely no evidence that Robert ever did send assasins after them. For all we know, "we have to leave because of the assasins" was the convenient excuse Viserys gave Dany whenever their host threw them out.

Then there are a few other claims of dubious value. "The real Targaryan had to be kept close and protected," etc. Yet you yourself recognize that Doran called the Darkstar "the most dangerous man in Dorne." Dangerous men get themselves killed; they're not protected.

CONCLUSION 2: Varys didn't lie to Kevan.

This is sort of a circular argument. Varys lied to a dying Kevan... which somehow proves that he did not lie to a dying Kevan?

CONCLUSION 3: Doran Martell is a sick genius that sacrificed his own son in his game.

There is no reason to believe this assertion.

I don't understand the contempt so many have for Quentyn. Yes, he lacked Tyrion's guile and Jaime's warrior prowess. But he was just a young kid, and a solid one, at that. Selmy, a good judge of character, calls him a sensible lad. And finally, his plan to steal one of the dragons worked at the beginning.

In addition, I find it unrealistic that Doran would send Lord Yronwood's son on a suicide mission, as the entire point of Yronwood's fostering Quentyn was to mend the relations between the two houses that were damaged when Oberyn slew Yronwood' father. It makes no sense that Doran would sacrifice both the chance to raise his son and his relationship with his beloved wife to reconcile with Yronwood, and then sabotage this relationship by getting Yronwood's son killed.

CONCLUSION 4: Darkstar took Storm’s End, not Young Griff.

This is a huge leap.

The Darkstar is likely a wanted man in Westeros, now that Myrcella has placed the sole blame for the attempted assasination against her on him. It is therefore unlikely that Storm's End would open its gates to a known criminal/traitor.

CONCLUSION 5: Young Griff was a back-up plan.

Maybe, but not for the Darkstar. Perhaps for Dany and Viserys, or maybe vice versa. To me, that's the real problem with Varys and Illyrio's conspiracy: why back both Viserys and Young Griff? Viserys was a power-mad lunatic, yet if he had been patient and waited, Khal Drogo may have given him his kingdom. What could be gained by setting Viserys up as a rival to the boy you've trained since birth for leadership, especially if that boy is your own son?

Varys tells Kevan that Young Griff was raised to rule. You claim that it would thus follow that if the Darkstar were the true Aegon, he would have been, too. Not only is there no evidence to suppor this claim, but Ser Gerrold's murderous behavior would seem to contradict that he was raised to be any kind of leader.

CONCLUSION 6: Varys and Doran played Illyrio and Connington

Again, no reason to believe this.

Illyrio and Varys were childhood friends; one has no reason to betray the other.

I think that you're reading book five in the wrong way. I don't think that the supposedly useless Dornish storylines constitute bad writing on Martin's part. Again, I think that they're proof of his dedication to the realistic depiction of human beings, even in a fantasy setting. Every single character in this series is flawed in some way (except for maybe Brienne). Both Nedd and Robb, paragons of honor, broke their vows/spent half their lives living a lie. After the trauma of having died and (believing to have) lost her entire family, Catelyn turns into a monster after the Red Wedding. Tyrion strangles Shae in his father's bed. After all she's been through, Sansa is starting to emulate Littlefinger, whom she admires. Arya is a cold-blooded assasin. Selmy protected the man who overthrew his king alongside the man who killed him. Danaerys is a just ruler, but a superficial judge of character. Even Rhaegar, who is made to be some sort of saint, was at worst a kidnapper and a rapist, and at best (and more likely) an adulterer, who stood by as his royal father massacred innocent peope.

[Where Boars Glow]

Thank Cannabis, I've figured it out!

I love ASoIaF, but two things about it have been bothering me quite a bit.

1. USELESS DORNISH DORKS WASTING OUR TIME
   

The major Dornish characters are all screw-ups and failures, and yet so much text is wasted on them and their boring lives.

Prince Doran, of whom by the end of AFfC we had been led to believe is actually a master long-term strategist and planner of "fire and bloody" vengeance, turns out to be just a bloated dumb-ass with a terrible plan. He waited 20 years for THAT?

And his "sun" Quentyn is a hapless dork from the get-go who ultimately earns a Darwin Award for his death by brain-dead dragon taming plan. Quentyn was just a dim-witted chump with little chance of success. When he died, we were all rightfully like “uhh… what was the point?”

Then there's "Darkstar" Gerold Dayne, who reads more like a character from a cheesy vampire thriller than a compelling Westeros player of the game.

I KNOW that GRRM is a great writer that should know not to waste so much time and book space on such boring, inept, inconsequential characters like Doran and Quentyn Martell and Darkstar Dayne. And yet he did.

Why oh why did GRRM make us suffer these Dornish fools for so long, with no plausible hope of them ever being relevant, while we missed reading about more interesting characters???

This bothered me. But now I understand.

2. VARYS'S LIE TO DYING KEVAN

We select forum dwellers, being as clever as we are, long ago figured out that Varys lied to a dying Kevan about Aegon Targaryen's return. After all, "Aegon" is obviously secretly of black dragon's blood, and Varys and Illyrio are clearly still fighting the Blackfyre rebellion. I swallowed this “Aegon Blackfyre” theory hook, line, and sinker. Everything about it just makes sense.

But if this theory is true, why did Varys lie to poor dying Kevan? It gains him nothing. It just seems pointlessly cruel for Varys to murder Kevan, then rub it in by lying to him about Aerys Targaryen’s return.

This glaring inconsistency was pointed out by skeptics of the Aegon Blackfyre theory, to whom believers offered the not-very-convincing explanations that Varys lied because of the little birds present or because "that's just what he does".

I tried to swallow these explanations, but I was left with strong nagging doubt about their validity. They are not very convincing, and we know that everything Varys does is calculated and with purpose.

How could I reconcile Varys's cruel pointless lie to a murdered good man, and my belief that Varys was truly a loyal and admirable member of Team Blackfyre?

This bothered me. But now I understand.

The space-wasting-Dornish and inexplicably-lying-Varys problems were solved when I linked them together in my mind after some good vape.

Here are my startling conclusions:

CONCLUSION 1: Darkstar = the real Aegon Targaryen

Reasoning:

• Gerold is from a minor Dayne offshoot house and should be beneath the notice of the Prince of Dorne. However not only does Doran know him, he very oddly names him the “most dangerous man in Dorne”.
  

We really doubt that Gerold is so dangerous due to his unbelievable battle skill; after all he failed to kill a little girl and then ran away.

No, there must definitely be something else that makes him dangerous. It’s either something he knows (but what super-dangerous secret could a minor Dornish lordling have?); or because of WHO HE REALLY IS. The latter is more credible and makes more sense.

The most simple and logical conclusion is that Gerold Dayne is really someone else, someone important and dangerous.

This alone does not prove that Gerold is Aegon, but he clearly is much more than he pretends to be.

• Gerold has “Targy” good looks. This is no big deal, right? After all, the Daynes are noted as good-looking and sharing some Targaryen physical characteristcs. (See Ashara.) That doesn’t make them of dragons’ blood, though. Gerold is a Dayne, so his Targy looks are not surprising.
  

Or are they? If you were Doran hiding the real Aegon, wouldn’t you hide him as a “Dayne” in order to draw less suspicion about his looks? Also, wouldn’t you put him with a minor Dayne house to further make him an anonymous nobody, not worthy of attention?

In fact, were you hiding Aegon Targaryen in Dorne, calling him “Dayne” and raising him in a lesser branch of the house makes perfect sense. This alone does not prove that Gerold is Aegon, but it is clearly a very good cover for a potential secret Aegon.

• Doran’s long-term master plan has been to marry his daughter to the real Targaryen heir, then rain hell on the usurpers. This plan seemingly died when pathetic Viserys died. It really wasn’t a good plan, given the unlikelihood of Viserys surviving Robert’s knives or Dothraki hordes or living but not turning out to be a total douchebag.
  

That was the sorry plot that he waited 20 years to hatch, while enduring years of his family calling him a do-nothing pussy? Really? For Doran to wait so long to get Dorne’s vengeance based on such a shitty plan strains credibility. Maybe Doran is just stupid, eh?

But I doubt he is. There’s a reason we got so much of him in AFfC and why that book left us believing he is a genius long-term player of the game.

No, Doran cannot be the idiot he appears to be. The real Targaryen heir had to be elsewhere, better protected and groomed for Doran to plot to eventually marry him to his daughter. Otherwise Doran’s arc in AFfC was just stupid and a waste of time.

This means that Doran really had to have been planning to marry his daughter to the real heir (Aegon Targaryen), not the obviously dead-man-walking dolt Viserys. So Doran must have known about Aegon living. So Doran and hidden Aegon definitely ARE LINKED.

This alone does not prove that Gerold is Aegon, but it does indicate that Doran knows about Aegon living and is part of the secret Aegon plot.

You thought that GRRM’s “twist” of Aegon being alive was just a set up for the “anti-twist” of “Aegon” really being a Blackfyre. Hah. In fact GRRM is setting us up for a real “double twist” of our balls – both are true!

What this conclusion explains:

• why Doran is so confident in his long-term plan that he endures his family’s mockery for years.
  
• why Doran calls Darkstar “the most dangerous man in Dorne”.
  
• why Darkstar is moody and angry and “of the dark” (he knows who he is and that he is “dead” to the world, thus “of the dark”.)
  
• why Darkstar gets so upset about being compared to his famous “cousin” Arthur Dayne. If a Dayne, he would more likely be proud of his cousin, if a bit jealous. But he is inappropriately resentful of Arthur. This makes more sense when we accept that Darkstar is in fact the rightful Targaryen King; of course it annoys him to just be in the shadow of some Dornish knight.
  

CONCLUSION 2: Varys didn't lie to Kevan.

Evidence

• The simplest explanation for Varys’s speech to dying Kevan is that he was telling the truth. It makes more sense than stretching believability to justify his lying. But since “Young Griff” is most likely the son of Illyrio and his Blackfyre wife just posing as the real Aegon, and since Varys surely knows this, there must be a REAL LIVE AEGON somewhere that Varys knows about. Otherwise he lied to Kevan, but his lying is too illogical to swallow; so he told the truth.
  

This alone does not prove that Gerold is Aegon, but it does indicate that the real Aegon does live and is safely hidden away somewhere. And we do not believe that Young Griff is the real Aegon, so the real Aegon must be someone else.

CONCLUSION 3: Doran Martell is a sick genius that sacrificed his own son in his game.

Reasoning

• After Viserys died, supposedly Doran needed a new plan to return the Targaryen’s to power, so he sent his hapless son and some pathetic companions to marry Dany and bring home her dragons to Dorne. This plan is so pathetic and stupid, it is not credible that someone of Doran’s intellect would rely on it.
  

Quentyn’s chapters in ADwD just showed us that he was an ugly, not-very-bright, loyal, but incompetent prince, accompanied by less than the best & brightest of Dorne. When he dies, we are not surprised, as everything he does is retarded.

ADwD readers were frustrated at the “pointless” Quentyn chapters, which took up valuable book space while conclusions to more interesting story arcs were pushed off to TWoW.

I don’t believe that a writer of GRRM’s caliber would waste space on Quentyn’s unawesome adventure if it was pointless. So it wasn’t pointless. But what point could it have served?

Some readers put forth the theory that the point of Quentyn was just to free Dany’s dragons from their chains. Ummm… okay, but that could’ve been accomplished via other literary devices that did not waste so much of our time. No, this cannot be the point of Quentyn’s story; there must be another one.

It was also proposed that the purpose of Quentyn’s tale was to set up bad blood between Dany and Dorne. Ummmm… maybe, but I’m not buying it. I think Doran is too smart to turn on Dany just because Quentyn died. It wasn’t really Dany’s fault at all. No, there must be another purpose.

Was the purpose to show that Doran’s plan of sending Quentyn to Dany was just stupid? No, I don’t believe Doran is stupid. So there is only one remaining credible explanation of the purpose of Doran sending Quentyn to Dany, and it is shocking.

Doran sent Quentyn off to die on a fool’s mission.

Surely Doran knew that his son is an incompetent loser with little success of surviving the trip to Slaver’s Bay and bringing home Dany & her dragons. Doran knew that most likely Quentyn would fail and die. (If Quentyn were to somehow succeed, well – BONUS! But Doran couldn’t have been counting on that.)

He expected Quentyn to fail and probably die. So he effectively sent him off to die.

Why? For one, he lets his ineffectual son die in a heroic quest, which is a good death. For Doran, this is a sort of kindness to his son. But more importantly, he used his son as a pawn to win Dany and her dragons (for Aegon and Dorne).

He knew Quentyn wouldn’t bring back the dragons. He also knew that Quentyn’s death would most likely cause Dany to feel some regret and to recognize what a good ally Dorne would have been, even if she couldn’t marry Quentyn. (Dany’s regret and sympathy would be greater if Quentyn died; perhaps his “false coin” companion Drinkwater or whatever his name is was tasked by Doran to make sure Quent died.)

By sacrificing Quentyn, he moved closer to an alliance with Dany.

Doran reasons that when he reveals Aegon/Darkstar as alive, allied with Dorne, and claiming the Iron Throne, then Dany will join her power and dragons with Aegon (and Dorne).

And then Doran will be able to truly rain “fire and blood” on his enemies.

CONCLUSION 4: Darkstar took Storm’s End, not Young Griff.

Reasoning:

• The Arianne sample AWoW chapter informs us that Aegon has taken Storm’s End. But how? We know how hard Storm’s End is to take if you don’t have magic shadow assassins, which Aegon Blackfyre/Young Griff and Jon Connington certainly don’t have. So how did they take it? It must have been through subterfuge.
  

But what tricks would this group have to “trick” Storm’s End, which must be held now by powerful forces, and take the castle by subterfuge? Uhhhh…. GRRM could think of some, but they would probably strain credibility.

Storm’s End was more likely taken with the help of forces outside of JC’s band. It was likely taken by the real Aegon Targaryen (Darkstar) posing as Gerold Dayne, knight of Dorne and ally to Storm’s End. much more able to trick the lords of Storm End then JC's band. This makes far more sense to me than any other potential explanation.

CONCLUSION 5: Young Griff was a back-up plan.

Reasoning:

• If Doran/Varys have the real Aegon in Dorne, then what’s the deal with Young Griff Blackfyre? Simple – he is the back-up plan in case something happened to Darkstar. Plotters like Doran and Varys would have a good back-up plan.
  

Varys tells Kevan that Aegon was raised to be a good leader. We know that Young Griff was raised this way. It is not hard to imagine that so was Darkstar.

Young Griff is just another pawn in Doran & Varys’s game.

CONCLUSION 6: Varys and Doran played Illyrio and Connington.

Reasoning:

• Illyrio wants Young Griff on the throne out of love for his dead Blackfyre wife. Illyrio and Varys are tight from their days in the hood together. Varys helps Illyrio because of their bond, but Varys is really just using Illyrio for his son as a back-up Aegon, and for his money, while Varys’s real plan is with Doran and Darkstar.
  

I can’t write anymore now. I realize this is not a full-fledged theory, and you can probably poke many holes in it, but I am convinced I am on to something.

There is NO WAY that the things that bugged me about the useless Dornish storylines and Varys’s lie were just bad writing by GRRM. He’s way too good for that.

There is more under the surface that we haven’t found yet. At least, not until today. J

When reading your post i can't help but hear it in the voice of mathew Illard as cerial killer from the film Hackers. :)

A few questions: 1) Dorne and the stormalands were not traditional allies? In fact Mace Terell's garrison who are somewhat enemies of Dorne currently hold storms end. I don't see why they would just fling the gates wide for Darkstar.

2) Why would he just say "the most dangerous man in Dorne" if what you say is true? Wouldn't it be something more like "He is the most dangerous man I know, the most dangerous man in westeros ect ect.

I like the theory about him being the son of Rheagar....I just wonder about the age and a few of the details.

[Dornishman's wife]

This is definitely the most entertaining thread I've read so far. Cheers to Bong of Ice and Fire and Mummers Fart, you're hilarious !

I am in the camp that Darkstar is Ashara and Brandon's son... it's in the name. It seems to be a combination of the names Dayne and Stark .Also if he's a Stark he may also be a warg like the other Starks and if Doran knows about this ability then maybe that's why he considers him as the most dangerous man in Dorne.

[Jslay427]

The fact that Doran sent Quentin off to ward many years ago, and chose not to take a closer hand in his upbringing, might be a point in the theories corner. I mean, ya he wasn't the heir to Dorne, but he was 2nd I believe in line. If there's a chance he might rule one day wouldn't Doran show more concern in him?

[Son of the Smiling Knight]

I have to agree that it couldn't have been Doran's "master plan" to send Quentyn to hopefully retrieve the dragons. he definitely has something else up his sleeve especially using the Sand Snakes and the whole Sarella/Alleras thing

[Kantor]

I like this very much, and it's plausible if not particularly likely.

But a lot of effort has been put into Young Griff, and I don't really see why they would do that just for the purpose of having a backup plan. We have no indication that Darkstar was given nearly the same level of tuition and protection as YG.

[StuSeaworth]

What isn't clear to me is the following: If Doran has a real Aegon, and a backup Aegon, what benefit would he have to send Quentyn to Dany? If Aegon is real, Dany doesn't have a legitimate claim to the throne. Wouldn't he be able to marry his heir to a noble house in westeros and gather more military support than Dany may ever offer?

[The Bastard of Summer]

*bump* for the new guys

[Ser Bacon Egg]

This is awesome (thanks for the bump). I'm a big fan of conspiracies and this has a good balance between crackpot and genius. Love the effort you've put in BoIaF!

First off, I didn't find learning about our Dornish friends as boring as you obviously did, and I don't think all the major players around there are complete screw ups. I still came out thinking that Areo Hotah, Arianne, the Sand Snakes, Oberyn, Darkstar, and even Doran are/were all pretty bad ass for a range of reasons.

That said, I sure as hell hope that Doran has more going on than he seems to. After 20 years of scheming, his plans have been far too easily undone. His passion for the game of cyvasse suggests that he surely has planned for any number of possible outcomes and, while I don't think he sent Quent to his death, I think he would have at least been prepared for it. I also don't think it unreasonable that he's got a few backup plans going on; Quentyn and Dany, Arianne and Viserys, DarkAegon... I mean, the guy is planning on raining Targaryens down on Westeros, so he'd better make sure he's got a few options around.

1. Darkstar simply has to be more than Ser Psycho Sexy. I agree that the phrase "most dangerous man in Dorne" alludes to him being more than just good with a sword or that he holds some juicy gossip about some other family, and as much as I despise secret Targs, this one actually sounds plausible. (I also like Brandon+Ashara, but I don't really see the point in that one) It makes sense to hide a Targ with a Targy lookin' bunch. It also explains his moodiness. The only downfall might be his age, but I'm willing to let that slide as no one seems to have any idea of that.

2. Your theory is also, so far, the best explaination of Varys' lie or lack-there-of that I've read. Apart from the one where fAegon is just Aegon... but that's far too boring for my suspicious mind.

3. As I said before, I don't really believe that Doran sent his son to die. I think it's unfortunate, but not neccessarily an unexpected development. Doran doesn't strike me as the type to send someone off to die for no real reason and "dying a heroes death" is not a real reason. I think Quent served a literary purpose by introducing a few potentially important characters, showing Dany that she has an ally in Dorne (so she'll hopefully get her arse to Westeros and stop wasting my fucking time), and releasing the dragons for some super fun time.

4. I think this is where you lost me. I'm keen to know where Darkstar is, but Griff and JC were talking about Storms End when we last saw them so I don't know why it wouldn't be them.

5. They're all back up plans. The end goal is to rain fire and blood on his enemies. Any way of getting there will do and this cyvasse aficionado has planned well ahead.

Once again, thanks for the good read. I hope there's at least some elements of truth in here.

PS. Does anyone think GRRM is just prowling these threads waiting for some good ideas to write in? Might explain why he's taking so long.

[King Aegon The Conqueror]

i must say this is indeed one of the best theories ive ever read if not the best! like everyone has said its the age which puts a hinge to it but these are based on assumptions of characters going by looks. i personally do like DarkStar for he is a bad ass.

[Gina of Dorne]

I find it hard to believe, good idea though. The only issue is if Doran could have got Aegon out, he would have not left Elia and Rhaenys. Good theory though, I loathe the ending those three met.

[TalalOfDorne]

As pointed out in several Darstar=Aegon threads, the age of Darkstar doesnt match that of Aegon.

[TalalOfDorne]

I find it hard to believe, good idea though. The only issue is if Doran could have got Aegon out, he would have not left Elia and Rhaenys. Good theory though, I loathe the ending those three met.

Welcome to the forum Gina of Dorne. Nice to see another Martell fan :cheers:

[Roadside Rose]

I like the idea but I think he is old to be Aegon. And I don't think Drinkwater being labelled 'false coin' by Selmy meant he intended to kill Quetyn. I felt Selmy was reminded of Jaime when he saw Drinkwater, and hence the quote.

[Bluesnow]

To make it clear... I really... really ... REALLLY hated the Dornish chapters.

But even with that said... they're not all screw ups. I actually have alot of respect for Doran as a ruler. Yes, alot of crap has happened. But he hasn't pointless plunged his country into war and despair like the rest of the continent, even though he's been suffering since his sister's death. Yes his plots aren't the most reliable, but whats he's looking for is opportunity instead of just putting all his eggs in one basket right away. I know people call him weak for not avenging his sister's death, but how many more innocent people would die if he acted on his revenge?

If you proscribe to the theory that Oberyn poisoned Twyin when he went to King's landing then Dorne has already gotten revenge. And if not, with Tywin and the Mountain dead there really in nothing left to get revenge for. Oberyn died by the Mountains hands yes... but he made the choice to fight that battle, it was what he always wanted.

Quentyn did act rashly in trying to tame the dragon, but I am not too critical of him.

He saw many of his friends die, and when he finally gets to his destinations he's brushed off without being taken seriously. He doesn't want to return home empty handed and not live up to his father's expectations... which is a common theme in the books, and with the example of Theon was already taken pretty far when took Winterfell. I guess we can argue whether being burned to death and suffering or several days is better or worse than the mental and physical torture Theon went through.

Oberyn was clearly awesome, so I don't think I should add any more to the conversation about him. His daughters right now seem pointless, but Doran had them locked up for like two books. I don't think its fair to judge them at least till we them do something.

The only character I have any problems with is Arriane. I have no real issue with her being sexual liberal, but her relationships distract her from bigger priorities. She honestly thought that her father would screw her over with his secret plots, and rather than confront him about it she acts like an obnoxious rebellious child. I often have a hard time remembering she's eve in her 20's because we've seen plenty of younger characters act more mature. From what we've seen of her she would make a poor ruler. Some of this blame should go on Doran, he would have been better off explaining much of his plans from the start, but I still can't excuse her actions. And then is the foolish plan with Mycella. She is a complete innocent in all this, and by endangering her she also puts her family and all of Dorne in danger. Even if their plan had succeeded, the still may not have won the war. Its stated constantly that the Dornish military is greatly overestimated.

Now on to Darkstar... the subject of your theory.

First of all... if he is Aegon why would the Daynes make him the head of one of their Cadet houses. Why would he hold so much animosity about Arthur Dayne and Light Bringer. To me this all says to me that he is definitely a Dayne unless of course he doesn't even know he's a Targ based on your theory >.>

Two, GRRM wrote him in a way that makes it pretty clear he's older than 18. Aegon would still be an inexperienced boy for the most part.

Three... you say Doran possibly wants to marry his daughter to him... but he would never have put Quentyn in so much danger. Doran clearly loves his family and wouldn't want any of them to be hurt.

I just feel there's enough traction for this theory. Now, I do expect Darkstar to have some significance to the plot, and maybe he's even someone we wouldn't expect, but I just don't know how he can be Aegon.