Is Braavos going to declare for Stannis?

[bemused]

I think it's going really off track to equate the God of the FM with the Great Other . We don't even know if the Great Other is anything more than an invention of R'hllorism ( but we know it is their invention). I can't believe the numbers of seeming Red Religion converts that post on the boards. The FM view of death is very different to Mel's, E.G.

It's really bizarre to me that people want to twist everything to fit the perception of one priestess ( most of our knowledge of the religion comes through her )..who has been wrong about many of her visions , and who we've seen resort to subterfuge to make her proclamations seem true.

[Lord Varys]

Yes, it's completely brain dead to take Melisandre's opinions as metaphysical truth about the existence of gods and stuff in Martinworld.

The religious/philosophical concept of death of the Faceless Men seems to be way too complex for a rather simple mind like Melisande to even grasp. She has a very simple view of the world, a view the author does not share (else he would not create that much 'gray characters').

The 'Great Other' is obviously nothing more than a mythical figure of R'hllorism. And R'hllor, too, is a phantasm in my opinion. Just because certain fire magic works does not mean a certain god does exist, either. And Mel's main sorceries have nothing to do with her belief system. She is a shadow binder (like Quaithe), and shadow binders are not necessarily followers of R'hllor. I fact, Mel is the only person who is a shadow binder and a red priestess.

[Tetrarch42]

Indeed. I'm not sure if there even are Gods or different forms of magic at all in the ASOIAF universe. Certainly the Old Gods have turned out to be near omniscient, but neither omnipotent or immortal. Every magic appears to involve sacrifice of some form or other, whether the Old Gods, Rh'llor, or Taryagreyan dragon hatching they all seem to iterations of the same force. Each requires blood or sacrifice to function, and each seems capable of good or bad.

[A Bong of Ice and Fire]

I think it's going really off track to equate the God of the FM with the Great Other .

See my new thread in the General forum about the FM being in league with the Others.

[King Doug]

Dragons can burn cities to the ground. Why risk making an enemy of a foe that can do that. Its like saying "I have special forces which can disable your nukes on the ground" but if they fail then those dragons burn Braavos to the ground. If the Faceless Men were THAT good then surely Braavos would have conquered the world and the guild would play Kingmaker. As it is it takes contracts off everyone and have only killed Balon Greyjoy far as I'am aware in GoT.

What makes you think they don't play kingmaker? Them killing Balon Greyjoy made Euron king, that's just the only example we know. The FM might be just that good. But as the Joker said in Dark Knight, "If you're good at something, you don't do it for free."

[total1402]

But if they're taking money and not putting their own people in charge then they're not the ones in power. You could argue that ala Praetorian Guard that theres a bidding process for controlling the guild. But the death of Balon just shows how apolitical the guild is and that it doesn't excert influence. Maybe I'am wrong but thats IMO.

[Anya, Vengeance Demon]

We've seen a lot of places in this world, and the only place where the FM's influence is truly felt is in Braavos. So I don't think that you can say that the FM are kingmakers, because nobody even knows what their agenda might be, much less feels obliged to carry it out.

In the ADWD epilogue, Kevan doesn't say, "We need to handle this Iron Bank situation because otherwise we'll all die mysteriously from magical assassins," he says, "We need to handle this Iron Bank situation if we can't get money from somewhere else." You'd think that if FM were "kingmakers", people like Kevan would be aware of that and trying to appease them. (Similarly, when the small council is discussing having a Faceless Man kill Daenerys, the sole concern is expense, not whether it fit with the FM's secret political agenda.)

[Lord Varys]

As I see the Faceless Men, they are not all that eager/interested to exert power in any official capacity. But they are there, and they get everything they won't in Braavos. Everyone is afraid of them.

And not being in charge officially does not mean that they are not the ones who are calling the shots. Illyrio is not the Prince of Pentos, but he is virtually the guy calling the shots there, despite the fact that he is only one magister among many.

We have no idea about the official political system of Braavos as of yet. Yes, there is a Sealord, but what's his job description, exactly? Its entirely. What amount of power does he/is he supposed to wield officially? And what does a 'First Sword of Braavos' do?

The Faceless Men are perhaps the most subtle players in this whole series, and Braavos itself is a weird place where virtually nothing is what it seems to be. I'm not suggesting that they won't to conquer the world, only that they might use their power/influence to accomplish whatever they want, and in this whole Stannis thing there could be going on more than just money. Although money alone might be motivation enough. If the House of Black and White is the main shareholder of the Iron Bank, they would have been pissed about King Tommen and his administration.

The people in Westeros obviously don't grasp what the Faceless Men truly are. And even in Braavos there should be only very few people who know/suspect that Faceless Men might have been behind the Doom of Valyria. Whoever can pull off such a thing cannot be overestimated.

They may kill people for money, but they are not a guild of assassins, they are religious cult. And we become gradually aware of the fact that beneath their religious surface they are rather pragmatic about delivering the 'gift of the Many-faced God'.

The fact that Ser Kevan does not grasp the (possible) danger posed by the Iron Bank is a typical system about the ineffectual, doomed administration of King Tommen. Ser Kevan even suggests to lend money from the Magisters of Pentos! There has not been a more funny line in ADwD.

[Anya, Vengeance Demon]

And not being in charge officially does not mean that they are not the ones who are calling the shots. Illyrio is not the Prince of Pentos, but he is virtually the guy calling the shots there, despite the fact that he is only one magister among many.

You're not the first person on this thread to say this, and I really don't know what Illyrio has done to demonstrate this near-total mastery of Pentos.

The people in Westeros obviously don't grasp what the Faceless Men truly are. And even in Braavos there should be only very few people who know/suspect that Faceless Men might have been behind the Doom of Valyria. Whoever can pull off such a thing cannot be overestimated.

I wouldn't have thought so either, but here we are.

I feel like you and King Doug are forgetting the first rule of power, as it works in ASOIAF: "Power lies where men think that it lies." And people outside of Braavos rarely think about the Faceless Men. They don't worry about what the Faceless Men want, they don't try to please the Faceless Men or make alliances with them. Nobody in Westeros (or Slaver's Bay, or Qarth, or anywhere else outside of Braavos) has ever expressed an interest in what the Faceless Men might want. So in terms of mundane political influence, the FM come up short.

That's not to say that they lack a larger agenda. But that larger agenda isn't necessarily political--like you said, they're more a religious cult than a political organization--and there's no evidence that they acts as a kingmaker, beyond taking contracts like any other assassin's guild would do.

[Lord Varys]

As to Illyrio:

Apparently no one in Pentos is challenging him or opposing his politics. Illyrio bought the Golden Company, married Daenerys Targaryen to the greatest Khal of the Dothraki, and bribed at least one Tetrarch of Volantis.

I'd be very surprised if Illyrio would get involved in Varys's grand scheme if he had to fear that his enemies/competitors at Pentos would use his distraction to move against him. Obviously, that's not the case...

[Jolene Brown]

They probably just don't give a crap about any of that. That's a far sight from meaning he rules Pentos.

[Anya, Vengeance Demon]

Apparently no one in Pentos is challenging him or opposing his politics. Illyrio bought the Golden Company, married Daenerys Targaryen to the greatest Khal of the Dothraki, and bribed at least one Tetrarch of Volantis.

The fact that nobody is challenging him only means that he has a secure position, not that he practically rules the city. We've never seen anybody else in Pentos (outside of his own slaves) act in accordance with his agenda. In fact, he says that the Prince of Pentos has barred him from the palace after he married Serra, so it's not as if Pentoshi notables are worried about offending him. For all we know, most of the magisters in Pentos give him a pass because he doesn't give a shit about Pentoshi internal politics.

[The Snowman]

I get the feeling that Stannis was doing something and was an outright Baratheon while Im sure the Iron Bank had heard of the twincest rumours and the added fact of the Iron Throne refusing to pay back any of what it owed. Stannis had an army, he had been around for a while, he still held Storm's End and Dragonstone(see Loras theories) and was looking to unite the land. Anyway maybe they just preferred Stannis and realised Tommen was like 8 and the the support of the crown, the Lannisters (were severely weakened) and the Tyrells (were being attacked by the Ironborn). So maybe they just decided to pick Stannis who was in Westeros while Dany was not and wouldn't be for quite a while.

Concerning Aegon, he had just arrived nearing the end of ADWD and hadn't really conquered or cemented a seat for himself as yet so why go to him.

[Nucky Thompson]

Now, when you think about it, whether or not Euron really gave the Faceless Men a dragon egg to pay for their services, the situation has to be analyzed as a system:

We know that the Faceless men killed Balon. Who benefits from that? Balon's heir, Euron, out of his own volition, immediately attacks the Reach, which just happens to be the most powerful of the Seven kingdoms and the kingdom which no one dares to have a beef with? Now, why would he do such a reckless thing? Could it possibly be the price of Balon's assassination? Or part of it, besides the dragon egg? Could it be the other way around - Euron pays with a dragon egg, becomes king and decides to attack the Reach for his own crazy reasons. Now, what's the Iron Bank's best move here - to try and persuade once again Tommen and the Lannisters while their allies are being decimated, or to take advantage and back Stannis?

According to me, Balon's assassination wasn't some random job the Faceless Men happened to take, but rather an important part of their agenda - note that after becoming king, Euron not only did immediately change the political and military landscape of Westeros by attacking the Reach, but also immediately addressed the issue with Daenerys and her dragons. This might at first seem like his own idea, but it may also be something the Faceless Men have ordered him to do. Him being in their pocket, knowing fully well how he could be the next one to fall off a bridge, would certainly presume a healthy amount of respect for the Faceless Men on Euron's part. Furthermore, why would the Sealord declare for Daenerys in the first place, thus inviting a damn armada from the slavers at his doorstep like the one in Meereen - assassins would probably not be very effective against that. Wouldn't it be better if a fleet from a kingdom a continent away would do the heavy lifting for you without even of hint of Braavos' involvement?

With that in mind, could Euron have gotten the dragon horn from the Faceless Men? If they sent him on a mission to do something with Daenerys' dragons, wouldn't they give him the right tools for the task?

Now, there has been a certain theory about Euron being either Pyatt Pree himself, or his puppet. If that was the case, would the Faceless Men fall for such a trick? Could that mean that they are in league with the Warlocks of Quarth? If so, from those two, who orders the other around?

And finally, by establishing a foothold in the Iron Islands, the Faceless Men may now have a very convenient means to influence events on the Wall by using Aeron. Such an endgame may be the very reason that made them put Euron in power. The Faceless Men could either convince Aeron of his task twisting his religious fanaticism in some way, or they could just kill him and take his face. Certainly neither Jon nor anyone else at the Wall has considered a Drowned God Faith Militant setting sail for the Wall to attack the Night's Watch or to achieve something else for the benefit of Braavos. In that line of thought, isn't it too coincidental that Jon was stabbed not long after he met with an envoy from Braavos, seemingly to discuss financial matters, which the banker would not agree to too easily, for the sake of believability...

[Darth Rivers]

Dragons can burn cities to the ground.

They cannot, not in the face of determined resistance. Remember how Drogon was injured by a spear? Imagine thousands of sharp pointy things flying upwards from ballistae and crossbows.

[Faint]

Why is it never considered how what has happened at Castle Black in the aftermath of Ramsay's letter might change this entire equation?

Tycho Nestoris and Justin Massey are soon to arrive there only to be confronted with the news that the Lord Commander of the Night's Watch has been assassinated after having received word that Stannis had been slain and defeated by the Boltons. And that's without taking into account what else might have happened since. For all we know, all hell might have broken loose at the Wall. I would not even assume that Selyse and Shireen are alive (after all, as to the latter, the Wildings think she should be killed). And what if Melisandre should look into her fire to find Stannis and come up empty or, even worse, see a picture of the Boltons triumphant after Stannis has faked his own death to gain access to Winterfell?

Would Tycho Nestoris and the Iron Bank be so eager to back Stannis then?

[Lord Varys]

If Shireen and Selyse are dead, everything would change. Which, I think, is why this is not going to happen. GRRM deliberately set up this whole Iron Bank thing since AFfC. He is not going cancel the deal directly after Stannis has signed the contract in blood. It's going to have some impact on the story. But if Stannis is supposedly dead, Shireen and Selyse truly dead, and Melisandre not interested in Stannis's cause anymore, Massey won't go to Braavos, that much is clear.

My guess is that Selyse might actually somewhat jump on the opportunity to declare Shireen Queen of Westeros, since that would make her Queen Regent, and Ser Axell Florent most likely the true Hand of the Queen (i.e. Shireen's Hand). She might fear that if Stannis is truly dead, she and her daughter might not last that long, but she won't miss Stannis on a personal level all that much. And she will use the opportunity to get away from all those dreadful people at the Wall as soon as she learns about Stannis's deal with Tycho.

[Faint]

Another possibility, actually, is that Selyse and Shireen are missing, and when Massey makes it to Castle Black, they won't be there. That would bring a whole set of new complications.

My general point, though, is that nothing should be assumed with Castle Black in upheaval as it is.

[Jolene Brown]

Poor Alester Florent... I liked his idea of marrying Shireen and Tommen. It resolves the incest issue cleverly, because whatever you believe, the children of the rightful heir will inherit the Throne... if it is Shireen, as Stannis's heir,great - her children inherit, and if you still think Tommen is Robert's son, well, his children will inherit too. Either way, the rightful line of succession is fundamentally intact, although sort of crookedly. A King Solomon-esque solution that a wiser man who cared about the welfare of the people ofWesteros, who can't endure more warfare for the long winter that has just started, would totally have adopted. Now, instead, Shireen and Tommen may both die. Stupid Stannis. I guess Margaery was sort of in the way anyway.

[TheeMikeHoncho]

I asked this question in another thread, but it relates to this too, How does Massey get to Braavos? I assumed Jon sent every ship available at Eastwatch, including Tycho's, to Hardhome. Am I wrong or are there more ships at Eastwatch?