Does the Ironborn Kingsmoot tell us anything about who wins the Game of Thrones?

[Where Boars Glow]

I think the chances of Theon being used to invalidate the Kingsmoot are pretty darn slim. The Ironborn are not a culture of lawyers---the fact that a prince who was off reaving got to redo the Kingsmoot thousands of years ago doesn't mean that a prince who got himself captured and was tortured into near-insanity will automatically be permitted to do the same in the present day. These guys won't feel bound to follow precedent (like I said: no lawyers), certainly not unless that precedent gives them an excuse to do what they want to do anyway, and getting rid of Euron and potentially putting Theon on the Seastone Chair don't strike me as the sort of things the Ironborn are going to be chomping at the bit to do in the near future, certainly not unless some pretty massive changes are made to both Euron's status and Theon's status (and while I could see the former happening, especially with Aegon's arrival, the latter strikes me as incredibly unlikely).

But the fact that Theon, the "rightful heir", missed the Kingsmoot because he was trapped underground, losing his skin . . . well, Theon could represent Bloodraven. Bloodraven is currently "trapped" beneath the earth, losing his skin (as he's a skinchanger). Bloodraven is a legitimized son of Aegon IV, and were he freed of his Night's Watch vows (and he kinda has a direct line to the Old Gods, so the chances of that happening aren't exactly out of the realm of possibility), then due to his status as a legitimized son of a Targ king, he might actually be able to make a claim to the Iron Throne. The Targs have explicitly allowed uncles to come before nieces in the past---and Bloodraven is Dany's great-great-great-whatever uncle. Theon's failure to take part in the Kingsmoot could presage Bloodraven's failure to throw his own name into the ring during the game of thrones.

I agree the chips are against Theon and i don't think he would win on a technicality. Some huge change would have to come for theon where he heads to the iron islands with an army. With both his sister and his uncle Areons support. How he gets these things still remains to be seen....I just wonder why they put that forshadow out there if it isn't Theon that was meant to be the second king to ever overthrow a Kingsmoot.

[Ragnorak]

Great stuff mate. One question......are you forgetting someone?

Is Theon/Reek still going to get a chance to Kingsmoot. Remember the presidience was mentioned that one not present could be chosen after the Kingsmoot.

If so....who does he represent?

Another possibility would be Theon representing a Stark (though Tze's two unlikely events would still need to be overcome.)

Theon considers Theon Stark his namesake, he wishes he was a Stark in front of the Heart Tree and even discusses wanting to be one with Lady Dustin. He's even seen as a kinslayer for "killing" Bran and Rickon. I'd say Jon would be the Stark. Theon followed Robb to war while Jon wanted to and did not. Theon betrayed Robb to be a King and Robb may have named Jon a King. Both raised at Winterfell but denied the Stark name making Theon in some ways a bastard of Winterfell. Jon is in many ways living out the Bael the Bard tale as the bastard of Winterfell and so is Theon. Bael's son kills him making him a kinslayer who, hated by the gods, is fated to be flayed by a Bolton.

I can't see the Ironborn ever taking Theon as a leader now though I can see them calling a "do over" because Theon wasn't there and then selecting someone else to replace Euron. Maybe this would mean a Great Council will be called because Jon's identity is made public but he is not chosen as King-- possibly after a Dany or Aegon is already crowned and seated.

[tze]

I just wonder why they put that forshadow out there if it isn't Theon that was meant to be the second king to ever overthrow a Kingsmoot.

I think the story of Torgon Greyiron is definitely foreshadowing something, I just don't think it's foreshadowing Theon being used to redo a Kingsmoot. Torgon Greyiron was a son of the old King, and his younger brothers didn't tell him about the Kingsmoot because each of them hoped he would be chosen as the new King---instead, Urragon Goodbrother was chosen and had Torgon's younger brothers killed (and was called Badbrother for that action, even though the story points out that they were not actually his brothers). Urragon made a crapload of enemies among the Ironborn, Torgon came back, and Torgon claimed he owed Urragon no allegiance because the Kingsmoot was invalid. Because Urragon had made so many enemies, the priests and lords rose against him, his own captains hacked him into pieces, a new Kingsmoot was held and Torgon Greyiron was chosen as King.

Urragon's actions sound like Theon's actions at Winterfell (though granted, the order of events is a bit different with Theon than it was with Urragon): the King died, Torgon was away, Urragon took over, and Urragon killed Torgon's younger brothers (and got a lot of flack for it, even though the story points out they weren't really his brothers). Robb died while Jon was away from Winterfell, Theon took over Winterfell and "killed" two potential Kings, Jon's younger brothers Bran and Rickon. (Just as an aside: I think the Torgon story is foreshadowing something that hasn't happened as of ADWD, which is when we first hear this story. That's why I analogize the Old King to Robb instead of to Ned or to Robert, and Torgon himself to Jon instead of to Robb.) Torgon's younger brothers wanted to succeed their father as King, and Jon's younger brothers were, at the time of their "murders", placed ahead of Jon in the Stark family succession, so in both instances there's the idea of the younger brothers potentially becoming King ahead of the older brother. Urragon is called "Badbrother" for murdering Torgon's brothers, though they were not Urrigon's own brothers; Theon gets an awful reputation for murdering Bran and Rickon, even though Bran and Rickon were not his biological brothers (and the actual murder victims, the miller's sons, definitely were not Theon's brothers). Urragon was hacked into pieces by his own captains---Theon is being flayed alive, piece by piece, by someone he once believed was serving him (Ramsay).

So perhaps the story of Torgon the Latecomer foreshadows Jon taking over Winterfell/becoming King, with Jon as Torgon, Bran/Rickon as Torgon's younger brothers, Robb as the Old King, and Theon as Urragon Goodbrother/Badbrother?

There are also some interesting parallels between the Torgon story and Rhaegar's children. If R+L=J, then Jon had siblings (Rhaenys and Aegon) who were murdered by Gregor Clegane and his henchman Ser Amory Lorch---and as Sandor Clegane can attest, Gregor Clegane has easily earned the epithet "Badbrother". For that matter, the Targ children were killed in a bid to please the new King, Robert Baratheon, and Robert was certainly a "bad brother" (in oh-so-many ways---to Ned, to Stannis, etc.). Torgon escaped death at Urragon's hand because he was raiding from his stronghold on Greyshield; Jon escaped death because he was "shielded" by the grey direwolf of Stark (i.e., Ned).

Something else that's interesting is what we're told about the fate of Torgon's House, House Greyiron. And at some point, a member of House Greyiron, Urron of Orkmont, slaughtered the other captains at the Kingsmoot, (the last Kingsmoot held until the present day), and House Greyiron then ruled unchosen for a thousand years. If the Kingsmoot is meant to symbolize the Game of Thrones in general, then the fate of House Greyiron, Torgon's House, has some fascinating implications. Yes, there are certain parallels between the slaughter carried out by Urron of Orkmont at the Kingsmoot and the Red Wedding, but in even larger terms, Torgon's House ended up destroying the Kingsmoot tradition and ruling unchosen for a thousand years. If the Kingsmoot = the game of thrones, then what are the implications for the latter in House Greyiron destroying the former? And the fact that House Greyiron ruled for a thousand years . . . this edges a bit into crackpot territory, but I'll bring it up nonetheless: it's been pointed out that, in stories of the Age of Heroes, kings were always ruling for centuries. We seem to have a new Age of Heroes descending on Westeros, what with the upswing in magic. And Haldon Halfmaester said something in ADWD which sounds very much like foreshadowing:

"The dead do not rise," insisted Haldon Halfmaester, "and no man lives a thousand years."

Well, the dead are definitely rising, so . . . what man will live a thousand years? Perhaps it's Jon, and the story of House Greyiron is meant to foreshadow Jon, or at the very least House Stark, ruling unchallenged (no Kingsmoot = no Game of Thrones???) for a thousand years?

[DaveRoid]

This is a very interesting line of thought.

Before the Kingsmoot takes place, Asha remarks that "Tarle the Thrice-Drowned was heard to say that Maron Volmark is the true heir of the black line.” Maron Volmark is a teenager, and he ultimately did not make a claim at the Kingsmoot, but ended up supporting Victarion and being co-opted by Euron at the Shield Islands. If Aegon really is a Blackfyre, then he can also be described as an "heir of the black line". If Maron Volmark = Aegon, then this might be a hint that Aegon will never rule Westeros.

Euron is called a crow, he's captain of the Silence, his personal sigil is a red eye, and his victory is preceded by the blowing of a horn. Jon is a member of the Night's Watch (a crow), his direwolf never makes a sound (Silence), his direwolf has red eyes, and the Watch is associated with the blowing of horns. Euron's victory at the Kingsmoot could presage Jon's victory at the Game of Thrones.

Asha and Victarion make overtures toward an alliance, but ultimately clash at the Kingsmoot. Their clash is what allows Euron to swoop in and win the Kingsmoot. Could be a hint there.

Oh noes we are spoiled!

Martin can die in peace now :P :P jk

[DaveRoid]

I have to admit though, part of the reason I like this as much as I do is because it doesn't end with Dany winning. :P

Euron used the promise of Dragons to clinch the contest... either Jon gets the girl, or the dragons, or both!

[Where Boars Glow]

I think the story of Torgon Greyiron is definitely foreshadowing something, I just don't think it's foreshadowing Theon being used to redo a Kingsmoot. Torgon Greyiron was a son of the old King, and his younger brothers didn't tell him about the Kingsmoot because each of them hoped he would be chosen as the new King---instead, Urragon Goodbrother was chosen and had Torgon's younger brothers killed (and was called Badbrother for that action, even though the story points out that they were not actually his brothers). Urragon made a crapload of enemies among the Ironborn, Torgon came back, and Torgon claimed he owed Urragon no allegiance because the Kingsmoot was invalid. Because Urragon had made so many enemies, the priests and lords rose against him, his own captains hacked him into pieces, a new Kingsmoot was held and Torgon Greyiron was chosen as King.

Urragon's actions sound like Theon's actions at Winterfell (though granted, the order of events is a bit different with Theon than it was with Urragon): the King died, Torgon was away, Urragon took over, and Urragon killed Torgon's younger brothers (and got a lot of flack for it, even though the story points out they weren't really his brothers). Robb died while Jon was away from Winterfell, Theon took over Winterfell and "killed" two potential Kings, Jon's younger brothers Bran and Rickon. (Just as an aside: I think the Torgon story is foreshadowing something that hasn't happened as of ADWD, which is when we first hear this story. That's why I analogize the Old King to Robb instead of to Ned or to Robert, and Torgon himself to Jon instead of to Robb.) Torgon's younger brothers wanted to succeed their father as King, and Jon's younger brothers were, at the time of their "murders", placed ahead of Jon in the Stark family succession, so in both instances there's the idea of the younger brothers potentially becoming King ahead of the older brother. Urragon is called "Badbrother" for murdering Torgon's brothers, though they were not Urrigon's own brothers; Theon gets an awful reputation for murdering Bran and Rickon, even though Bran and Rickon were not his biological brothers (and the actual murder victims, the miller's sons, definitely were not Theon's brothers). Urragon was hacked into pieces by his own captains---Theon is being flayed alive, piece by piece, by someone he once believed was serving him (Ramsay).

So perhaps the story of Torgon the Latecomer foreshadows Jon taking over Winterfell/becoming King, with Jon as Torgon, Bran/Rickon as Torgon's younger brothers, Robb as the Old King, and Theon as Urragon Goodbrother/Badbrother?

There are also some interesting parallels between the Torgon story and Rhaegar's children. If R+L=J, then Jon had siblings (Rhaenys and Aegon) who were murdered by Gregor Clegane and his henchman Ser Amory Lorch---and as Sandor Clegane can attest, Gregor Clegane has easily earned the epithet "Badbrother". For that matter, the Targ children were killed in a bid to please the new King, Robert Baratheon, and Robert was certainly a "bad brother" (in oh-so-many ways---to Ned, to Stannis, etc.). Torgon escaped death at Urragon's hand because he was raiding from his stronghold on Greyshield; Jon escaped death because he was "shielded" by the grey direwolf of Stark (i.e., Ned).

Something else that's interesting is what we're told about the fate of Torgon's House, House Greyiron. And at some point, a member of House Greyiron, Urron of Orkmont, slaughtered the other captains at the Kingsmoot, (the last Kingsmoot held until the present day), and House Greyiron then ruled unchosen for a thousand years. If the Kingsmoot is meant to symbolize the Game of Thrones in general, then the fate of House Greyiron, Torgon's House, has some fascinating implications. Yes, there are certain parallels between the slaughter carried out by Urron of Orkmont at the Kingsmoot and the Red Wedding, but in even larger terms, Torgon's House ended up destroying the Kingsmoot tradition and ruling unchosen for a thousand years. If the Kingsmoot = the game of thrones, then what are the implications for the latter in House Greyiron destroying the former? And the fact that House Greyiron ruled for a thousand years . . . this edges a bit into crackpot territory, but I'll bring it up nonetheless: it's been pointed out that, in stories of the Age of Heroes, kings were always ruling for centuries. We seem to have a new Age of Heroes descending on Westeros, what with the upswing in magic. And Haldon Halfmaester said something in ADWD which sounds very much like foreshadowing:

Well, the dead are definitely rising, so . . . what man will live a thousand years? Perhaps it's Jon, and the story of House Greyiron is meant to foreshadow Jon, or at the very least House Stark, ruling unchallenged (no Kingsmoot = no Game of Thrones???) for a thousand years?

Great stuff here. I do understand Theon is out of bounds as he is now. I also definately think he is in the downswing part of a redemption arc. Like his uncle Aeron who was also considered a worthless lout but was then reborn by the drowned God.....perhaps the Theon/Reek we are seeing now is now the final evolution of his character. Perhaps Theon had to go through all of these failings and faulters in order to become the true leader of the Ironborn.

Then again.....maybe he is a punk who gets flayed.

[KhalDrogoReborn]

I think the chances of Theon being used to invalidate the Kingsmoot are pretty darn slim. The Ironborn are not a culture of lawyers---the fact that a prince who was off reaving got to redo the Kingsmoot thousands of years ago doesn't mean that a prince who got himself captured and was tortured into near-insanity will automatically be permitted to do the same in the present day. These guys won't feel bound to follow precedent (like I said: no lawyers), certainly not unless that precedent gives them an excuse to do what they want to do anyway, and getting rid of Euron and potentially putting Theon on the Seastone Chair don't strike me as the sort of things the Ironborn are going to be chomping at the bit to do in the near future, certainly not unless some pretty massive changes are made to both Euron's status and Theon's status (and while I could see the former happening, especially with Aegon's arrival, the latter strikes me as incredibly unlikely).

But the fact that Theon, the "rightful heir", missed the Kingsmoot because he was trapped underground, losing his skin . . . well, Theon could represent Bloodraven. Bloodraven is currently "trapped" beneath the earth, losing his skin (as he's a skinchanger). Bloodraven is a legitimized son of Aegon IV, and were he freed of his Night's Watch vows (and he kinda has a direct line to the Old Gods, so the chances of that happening aren't exactly out of the realm of possibility), then due to his status as a legitimized son of a Targ king, he might actually be able to make a claim to the Iron Throne. The Targs have explicitly allowed uncles to come before nieces in the past---and Bloodraven is Dany's great-great-great-whatever uncle. Theon's failure to take part in the Kingsmoot could presage Bloodraven's failure to throw his own name into the ring during the game of thrones.

But Aegon has the best claim because he's the son of the son of the king. If he is a fake than the throne belongs to the sister of the son of the king who is Dany. Only if something happens to her the throne will go to a very far relative like Bloodraven.

[tze]

If he is a fake than the throne belongs to the sister of the son of the king who is Dany. Only if something happens to her the throne will go to a very far relative like Bloodraven.

This has actually been debated elsewhere, so I'll just sum up here: after the Dance of the Dragons, daughters of Targaryen Kings have come after their uncles in the line of succession (the exact opposite of what happens with every other family in Westeros---see, e.g., the Karstark situation). That's why, when Baelor the Befuddled died with no heirs, the throne went, not to any of his younger sisters, (the daughters of Aegon III), but to their uncle (Aegon III's brother) Viserys II. There's precedent for the Targs disinheriting a daughter in favor of an uncle, but actually no precedent for putting a daughter ahead of an uncle (again, the exact opposite of every other Westerosi family). That's why I brought up the quoted point in the first place: because the Targs insisted on making special rules for themselves, then as Dany's great-great-great-whatever uncle, legitimized by royal decree, Bloodraven would actually have a claim to the throne (were he let out of his vows) that could likely supercede Dany's, a situation that would exist only with House Targaryen.

[KhalDrogoReborn]

But how do we know Aegon is a fake? As long Martin doesn't say elsewhere, I believe that he Is the real thing.

I think that he will grow up to be over confident and maybe get some of this "Taragerian craziness" and he will rule a very short time if he ever gets to sit on the throne at all, but the reason for his fall won't be that he is a Taragerian basterd or something.

Sorry for the bad English by the way, it is not my mother language.

[tze]

One aspect of the Kingsmoot I haven't seen brought up is the distinct Old Gods/First Men-based overtones contained in each candidate. In fact, the reason each member of the Ironborn fails tends to be because of specific attributes that readers associate with the Old Gods and the First Men:

Gilbert Farwynd: According to Aeron, rumors say House Farwynd produces skinchangers.

Erik Ironbreaker: Erik is an old man seated on a wooden throne, and ultimately fails at the Kingsmoot because he cannot rise from that wooden throne---this seems like a pretty clear reference to the greenseers in Bloodraven's hollow hill trapped on their weirwood thrones (and specifically to Bloodraven himself, given Erik's extreme age).

The Drumm: The Drumm offers the Kingsmoot bronze, the metal most closely associated with the First Men. His pitch heavily emphasizes remembering the past (and the North, stronghold of the Old Gods and First Men, has as its catchphrase "The North Remembers").

Victarion: Look at what Aeron says of Victarion: “Nine sons were born from the loins of Quellon Greyjoy. One was mightier than all the rest, and knew no fear.” What other character was described in that exact same way? The Night's King---"a warrior who knew no fear", a Lord Commander of the Night's Watch whom Old Nan claims was a Stark. Victarion says he "has no singer's tongue" (the Singers = the COTF), and his case to the Kingsmoot is heavily centered around Balon, his brother (and skinchangers refer to each other as "brother").

Asha: Offers the Kingsmoot pinecones, pebbles, and turnips---she offers them power primarily associated with nature.

So we have the idea of skinchangers, an old man trapped in a wooden throne (the greenseers in general and Bloodraven in particular), bronze, remembering the past ("The North Remembers"), a man without fear (the Night's King, who Old Nan claims was a Stark), a singer's tongue (which puts one in mind of the Children), a brother (the term skinchangers use for each other), and the wealth and power of nature. In each instance, the element associated with the Old Gods/First Men dooms each particular Ironborn candidate: nobody will vote for the Farwynd candidate because the Ironborn see them (and their supposed skinchanger-ness) as "unnatural", Erik Ironbreaker fails because he's considered too old and feeble (his inabilty to rise from his wooden throne is viewed as weakness), the Drumm fails because nobody there wants bronze gifts or to dwell on remembrances of the past, Victarion fails because his supposed fearlessness isn't enough, he doesn't have a "singer's tongue" (his words end up twisted and overshadowed by better public speakers) and because Asha points out how Victarion will be too much like his brother. Asha fails because the Ironborn don't want the power of nature.

And then there's Euron, whose pitch to the Kingsmoot is heavily associated with Valyria. His gifts all come from the East, he brings a dragon horn incised with Valyrian glyphs, and he promises dragons to the Ironborn. These are the things that sway the captains of the Ironborn.

But here's the thing: what have we been shown about the Ironborn? They cling to a failing way of life. Though they frequently succeed in the short-term, the "Old Way" that they celebrate inevitably leads them to long-term destruction. They make unsustainable choices and never really succeed in their goals. So by looking at what elements cause success in the Kingsmoot, aren't we also looking, almost by definition, at what elements will cause failure in the Game of Thrones? And by looking at what elements bring failure in the Kingsmoot, might we not also be seeing what elements will cause success in the Game of Thrones?

In which case, the elements that the Ironborn spurn, given the Ironborn's rather notorious inability to understand what's required in order to exercise true power, could signify the elements that will lead to one candidate's/group's success by the end of ASOIAF. Skinchangers with eyes of grey and blue. Men trapped on wooden thrones. Bronze. Remembering the past. Kings associated with the night, the Singers (the Children), and with being brothers. The power of nature. These are all things heavily associated with House Stark. And what inspires success at the Kingsmoot are elements associated with the East and with Valyria, two places associated with House Targaryen (both in their Valyrian heritage and in the fact that the two candidates considered Targs---Dany and Aegon---were raised in the East). So perhaps looking at what the incompetent Ironborn cherish shows us who will ultimately fail (House Targaryen), and looking what what the Ironborn disdain shows us who will ultimately succeed (House Stark).

[brut]

Nice theory. Now if only tze could find some correlations to Mance, Sandor, and Jaime, just to expand this further...

[Melifeather]

tze, I agree with your final conclusion that House Stark has all the elements of success, but I have to say that the only thing I disagree with is that the Ironborn were embracing their failures with their selection of Euron. I think they're trying something new. They'll still fail, but they were selecting someone untraditional.

[Daenerys is my queen]

Interesting theory. But I can't see Bran taking over the throne. Why would he want it anyway?

[Avlonnic]

Capon Breath:

“3rd up - The Drumm. Good backers, good heritage & Valyrian Sword but fails to impress by being Boring. (Ok so my theory is particularly weak here) The Drumm represents the "background noise" of the Lannister Kids as rulers whilst we all wait for the "Main Characters" to show up and make a claim for the Iron Throne.”

Tze:

"The Drumm: The Drumm offers the Kingsmoot bronze, the metal most closely associated with the First Men. His pitch heavily emphasizes remembering the past (and the North, stronghold of the Old Gods and First Men, has as its catchphrase "The North Remembers")."

A thought: perhaps The Drumm represent Stark rather than Lannister. Starks carry Targaryen blood although “Robert had the better claim”. Eddard of the North had strong backers, great heritage, and a Valyrian sword but was hardly described as exciting. The Starks are associated with the Old Gods and First Men. The Starks Proper may not destined for the Iron Throne but for the North.

[tmug]

Iron seems to be a theme throughout this world GRRM built, Iron Throne, Iron Bank, Iron Islands, Iron Born.

And don't forget that the coin Arya had to get to Bravos was made of Iron.

The Iron Born believe in a single god, the Drowned God. They are not converted to the light of the Seven or the Old Gods. The only other single god out there is the god of Death or Rhilor. What if the Drowned God and Rhilor are the same?

[espresso]

There are other single god religions. The shepherd, for example. And Moqorro would tell Victarion if both gods were the same, won't he?

Them again, according to kindly man, red god, drowned god and stranger are all the same.