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Who will win the battle of Winterfell?


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Oh yes, I did not make myself clear. The first line was about the book, that is Stannis will lose the battle of winterfell, but will survive and somehow end up on the Wall.

AND in the show, he will get picked up by Brianne etc.

I think at this point we need to use the show to make predictions for WoW. As we know, GRRM told D&D about Shireen, thus it is more than likely he told them about the results of Battle of Winterfell and Stannis's future (at least the immediate future). We know the show differs from the book quite considerably, but the results of this battle cannot be changed as it would lead to complete change of future events.

Stannis is confirmed dead on the show.

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So is Jon...yet everyone believes Jon will return back.

Of course they will not say he is alive. I won't believe Stannis is dead, because they did not show him dead/dying.

There is a big difference, at least imo. IMO stannis' arc was over because he had nothing left. He killed his only child, most of his men deserted, his wife killed herself and even melisandre left him.. he had nothing to live for. Jons arc was right in the middle. He had a minor setback and killing him off right now doesnt make sense.. and besides there is the grrm spoiler
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Stannis will probably win against both Ramsay and Roose in the next book. Many good arguments in favor of Stannis's victory at the Battle of Ice in the books have been made on this thread.

Stannis seems likely to survive long enough to encounter Daenerys, which is a part of the future revealed by the House of the Undying. Additional foreshadowing of such an encounter comes from a dream that Daenerys has in ASoS that seems to show glimpses of a second decisive showdown at the Trident between Baratheon and Targaryen, with the outcome reversed this time (this dovetails quite well with the idea that Daenerys slays the lie that Stannis is AAR).

I don't think that Dany's Trident dream foreshadows a second Baratheon/Targaryen showdown. "The Usurpers' Host" was armoured in ice, which to me indicates The Others. Dany doesn't know about the Others, so in her dream she thinks about the enemies she knows, but that detail about the ice armour indicates to me that an army of White Walkers/Wights breaks through to the Trident to be destroyed by Dany's forces (and allies).

I hope this army blitzkrieg'ed its way through the north, bypassing areas of relatively strong resistance, so that this doesn't have to mean that everyone in the north is dead, in that scenario. Winterfell, with its central heating, looks like the #1 place in the north to resist for some time. So does White Harbour (I hope), more to the south and not on the marching route to Trident and KL.

Jon Snow will probably lead the defense at the wall (if he is revived in time), and if/once the Wall falls or gets bypassed he may either join and warn Dany in order to defeat the Other army, or he may be making a one man/small party counterattack into the far north.

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If anything the show confirmed that Stannis wins this fight, they went completely out of their way to allow Brienne to do the deed, which to me suggests that it will be Brienne who does it in the books as well. Since Brienne is not in the north in the books...

That's a good point, they could easily have Stannis die by the hand of Boltons. That they made such a point of it to have Brienne do it suggests this may happen in the books as well.

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I don't think that Dany's Trident dream foreshadows a second Baratheon/Targaryen showdown. "The Usurpers' Host" was armoured in ice, which to me indicates The Others. Dany doesn't know about the Others, so in her dream she thinks about the enemies she knows, but that detail about the ice armour indicates to me that an army of White Walkers/Wights breaks through to the Trident to be destroyed by Dany's forces (and allies).

I hope this army blitzkrieg'ed its way through the north, bypassing areas of relatively strong resistance, so that this doesn't have to mean that everyone in the north is dead, in that scenario. Winterfell, with its central heating, looks like the #1 place in the north to resist for some time. So does White Harbour (I hope), more to the south and not on the marching route to Trident and KL.

Jon Snow will probably lead the defense at the wall (if he is revived in time), and if/once the Wall falls or gets bypassed he may either join and warn Dany in order to defeat the Other army, or he may be making a one man/small party counterattack into the far north.

If the theories that Stannis will ultimately ally with or lead the Others turn out to be true then Dany's dream could cover both a Baratheon-Targaryen confrontation and a battle by Dany against the Others.

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If Stannis is dead on the show, it leads me to believe this:



When he takes Theon to the tree as is suggested in the Gift Chapter -- Asha (or anyone really) ambushes him and he dies at the tree...



Giving the tree blood-sacrifice of a king.



I think that's why the show had him leaned up against a tree when Brienne finds him.



So *if* he's dead (lord I hope not but w/e)... I think he will be killed at the tree instead of Theon.





Edit: Spelling


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If the theories that Stannis will ultimately ally with or lead the Others turn out to be true then Dany's dream could cover both a Baratheon-Targaryen confrontation and a battle by Dany against the Others.

Craster aside, I don't see an alliance between human and Others - that would be like Baltar and the Cylons (original series). I suppose Stannis could fall against the Others and come back as a wight in their army, but he has no reason to lead an army of ice zombies and ice vampires to go kill all the humans, not while he still breathes and needs heat.

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I like it. "Our men must win or die. Pompey's men have... other options", said Julius Caesar (in HBO's interpretation), and the rest is, literally, history.

I was thinking that the entire time with stannis and the caeser comparison! stannis is one to use such desperation factors to his advantage

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Wild speculation follows based on show and books. My belief now that the show is overrunning the books is that in the books Stannis will win the Battle in the Snow but will not be able to take Winterfell because of forces left behind with Roose. (100 men can hold Winterfell) I do believe that the Manderlys will turn on the Freys during the Battle which will enable Stannis to prevail against Ramsey. As hinted in the show the Knights of the Vale will eventually come to Winterfell to turn the tide of battle but which side they fight on is anybody's guess. Maybe Brienne will arrive with them. At some later point, possibly after this second Battle for Winterfell which GRRM has time for in the Books but the Show does not, Brienne kills Stannis.


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I just can't for the life of me see the book and the show varying so wildly on this... however, I think that there is alot of truth to D&D fawning over the Boltons. I think that when the series began, they delighted in the Lannisters being hated by the public etc. But, I think as time has gone on, they are keen to have a more grey opinion of the Lannisters, and for the truly despisable villains they look to the Boltons. I mean, it really is absurd what they've done with Ramsay. I think that D&D would have been absolutely dejected had GRRM finished writing the Battle of Winterfell in Dance. I think they absolutely loved that Pink Letter, even though its a farce, and just because that Pink Letter has been published and TWOW hasn't been published, but the show was up to that part, they went ahead and made the Pink Letter show canon. I think that it's clear they had a thing against Stannis, the character was written very poorly, seemed to be a nuisance to them all along as well. But Stephen Dillane did an incredible job. Look, how can anybody say D&D had no bias against Stannis? I read an interview with Stephen Dillane where he said when he came to the show the writers did next to nothing to clue him in on anything. He had to do all his own research and figure everything out for himself. Throughout his run on the show as well he has talked about how uninvolved he has been. I realize that it's probably not fair to expect Stannis or Stephen Dillane to be given the same kind of consideration as Jon Snow, Danaerys / Kit Harrington / whatever her name is (i dont like Danaerys at all sorry) but still.



I always thought that, it just made the most sense from a writing perspective, given how there's only two books left supposedly, and GRRM has said that there would be a few ppl sitting the Iron Throne before the book was over and so far we've seen Robert Baratheon, Joffrey and Tommen. It always made the most sense to me that Stannis would take Winterfell, consolidate what he could, in that time Justin Massey would arrive with the sellswords and they'd make a push towards Kings Landing while everything was a mess down there. Danaerys would attack King's Landing soon after, then go north with the dragons for the final battle of the book. I don't know. That's how I saw it playing out in mine own head.



BUT the more I think about it, the show seems to indicate that "Bolton banners would burn and fall to the ground." And honestly, from a writing perspective, it would be quite the task, in comparison, to write a Stannis victory, Stannis march and another Stannis victory, versus a Bolton victory, Bolton sits at Winterfell and then gets torched by Danaerys. That latter scenario would probably be alot less work. Its not what I want, I've been a Stannis fan since the beginning.



In fact, I was at the GRRM 92nd street YMCA event and GRRM said how the character was based off of the portrayal of Tiberius in the BBC adaptation of I, Claudius. I watched the series and I have to say you totally see it. It is Stannis.

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Wild speculation follows based on show and books. My belief now that the show is overrunning the books is that in the books Stannis will win the Battle in the Snow but will not be able to take Winterfell because of forces left behind with Roose. (100 men can hold Winterfell) I do believe that the Manderlys will turn on the Freys during the Battle which will enable Stannis to prevail against Ramsey. As hinted in the show the Knights of the Vale will eventually come to Winterfell to turn the tide of battle but which side they fight on is anybody's guess. Maybe Brienne will arrive with them. At some later point, possibly after this second Battle for Winterfell which GRRM has time for in the Books but the Show does not, Brienne kills Stannis.

That cannot happen in the books. There's actual sensible politics in the books unlike the show.

Good luck in convincing the Vale army to march into the North through heavy winter and fight a war that has nothing to do with them. That's without even considering the fact that the Vale is not very united right now and lacks a real leader.

The snow will help Stannis rater than hinder him. The Manderley's will turn without a doubt and between whatever traps Stannis has set for them and the Manderley's they're going to be destroyed. At which point Stannis and Manderley have a talk and Stannis finds out that Davos is still alive as is Rickon.

Manderley goes back to the Boltons with Stannis' sword and claims he's dead. Ramsay writes the pink letter thinking Stannis is dead. Then the Manderley's and rest of the dissenting crowd inside WF rebel and Stannis launches a surprise attack which finishes the Bolton's off.

Bolton's winning the battle seems to make very little sense in the grand scheme of things. God knows, how the events of the show fit in. Stannis can't possibly be killed by Brienne and lose the battle at the same time. Nor can Stannis can lose the battle and be able to burn Shireen.

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If Stannis just dies, like he did in the show, he will have been a super extended much better version of Quentyn Martell. It will all come to nothing, mean nothing. For Stannis to lose the battle of winterfell and then die randomly, it makes his whole story pointless.



I do have a hard time believing the show would so seriously diverge, so I have a bad feeling that GRRM is going to kill him, but I am at least hopeful he will give him a better death that has some kind of meaning.



I would feel totally trolled, like I did with Quentyn, if the pink letter is true and Stannis really just dead dead, The End. That's all Folks.


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That cannot happen in the books. There's actual sensible politics in the books unlike the show.

Good luck in convincing the Vale army to march into the North through heavy winter and fight a war that has nothing to do with them. That's without even considering the fact that the Vale is not very united right now and lacks a real leader.

The snow will help Stannis rater than hinder him. The Manderley's will turn without a doubt and between whatever traps Stannis has set for them and the Manderley's they're going to be destroyed. At which point Stannis and Manderley have a talk and Stannis finds out that Davos is still alive as is Rickon.

Manderley goes back to the Boltons with Stannis' sword and claims he's dead. Ramsay writes the pink letter thinking Stannis is dead. Then the Manderley's and rest of the dissenting crowd inside WF rebel and Stannis launches a surprise attack which finishes the Bolton's off.

Bolton's winning the battle seems to make very little sense in the grand scheme of things. God knows, how the events of the show fit in. Stannis can't possibly be killed by Brienne and lose the battle at the same time. Nor can Stannis can lose the battle and be able to burn Shireen.

You maybe right about the Vale but LF supplied the Boltons with fArya so I am not convinced he is going to have the only forces at full strength continue to sit idly by in the Vale forever. He is up to something. I like your thoughts on the Manderleys and the pink letter but the one thing that has always bothered me about that whole situation was "what really happened to Mance?". I can't believe that his plan was to have the spearwives do everything. Where was he when they were busting Theon and fArya? No I think Mance knew fArya was fake and used their escape as a diversion for something else that he was really after at Winterfell. I would love to find out what that was. Maybe someday :frown5:

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Stannis is woefully unprepared for the siege part of the battle (no siege equipment, no supplies, no numerical superiority), so Bolton victory is definitely not impossible. Personally, I hope that he will at least defeat the Freys and that Ramsay will either be wounded or outright killed. There are many other possibilities, though.


One advantage of Bolton victory would be the reaction of some of the most fanatical Stannis fans (their smug faces need a slap).


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Stannis is woefully unprepared for the siege part of the battle (no siege equipment, no supplies, no numerical superiority), so Bolton victory is definitely not impossible. Personally, I hope that he will at least defeat the Freys and that Ramsay will either be wounded or outright killed. There are many other possibilities, though.

One advantage of Bolton victory would be the reaction of some of the most fanatical Stannis fans (their smug faces need a slap).

Yeah, but in the actual story, a Bolton victory and a Stannis lost/death leaves the North and Winterfell in the hands of the Boltons, which is bad. And no one around to fight the Others either.

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When comparing the books to the show, it should be kept in mind that Martin has stated that Willas and Garlan will have roles to play in upcoming events. Some might dismiss this on the speculation that they will appear but be nearly irrelevant, however, Martin's statements make it sound like the change is at least somewhat consequential. The show lacks both of those characters.


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You maybe right about the Vale but LF supplied the Boltons with fArya so I am not convinced he is going to have the only forces at full strength continue to sit idly by in the Vale forever. He is up to something. I like your thoughts on the Manderleys and the pink letter but the one thing that has always bothered me about that whole situation was "what really happened to Mance?". I can't believe that his plan was to have the spearwives do everything. Where was he when they were busting Theon and fArya? No I think Mance knew fArya was fake and used their escape as a diversion for something else that he was really after at Winterfell. I would love to find out what that was. Maybe someday :frown5:

I don't think LF will be relevant. His plans have always been opportunistic and will come crashing down soon enough. I always thought he sent Jeyne just so he could one day turn up and say she was fake and plan Sansa instead. Doesn't really matter given Rickon is still alive.

Mance is a complete mystery tbh. Hard to say what he is up to.

I'm certain Stannis will win. Didn't Dany see Stannis one of her visions as well? That should pretty much assure Stannis lives until she comes at least.

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I'm of the opinion that the shows have turned GRRM's story inside out, only to eventually get back to the same place.



D&D have Stannis losing and the Boltons in control of Winterfell as the army of the dead advances south. (I particularly liked the way Ramsey Bolton just cleaned off his sword and left the dead soldiers there on the ground without burning or burying them at all. That's going to come back to bite him.)



I think GRRM will have Stannis win Winterfell and send for his family in the aftermath of the Red Letter. Then the Others advance, then he will sacrifice Shireen, then the North will abandon him, and then he will fall to the Others.



But time will tell. We'll see.


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