Aegon is Legitimate: It's Obvious, Right? (Long OP)

[PatrickStormborn]

What workers?

Castles are full of workers, including wetnurses. Elia was sickly so would have had a lot of women around her to help look after her and Aegon.

Gilly and her babes.

They were much younger. In contrast, Aegon was around one year old.

Of course no one could recognize the baby, his head had been smashed.

You've missed the point. The point is that Varys' whole "baby swap" only works because no one could recognise Aegon. THAT'S why it fools Jon Connington, Tyrion, etc. Because everyone knows that Aegon's head was smashed, making him unrecognisable.

If his head hadn't been smashed, nobody would believe Varys.

[7OldDrownedRedGodsofLight]

His wife has Valyrian features. Aegon has Valyrian features. He also has an extremely close bond with Aegon.

so this is evidence enough to prove that Illyrio has a child, named Aegon? If R+L=J is true, then why doesn't Jon Snow have Valyrian features? To say that Aegon is Illyrio and his Valyrian featured wife's son because Aegon has Valyrian features is a stretch, and shouldn't be used as a base for an argument.

[Maxpey]

In a trial, when circumstantial evidence can be interpreted in such a way that it supports two opposing viewpoints equally, then as a matter of law neither can claim to be the correct interpretation.

This is exactly what I see happening with the LG/Aegon is real/LG/Aegon is fake arguments. Both sides are interpreting the exact same passages from the text but are coming up with opposing conclusions.

Personally, I think GRRM does not want us to be able to figure out whether LG/Aegon is real at this point in time (maybe because it bothers him that so many people figured out R + L =J). As such, for each clue that supports an inference that he is fake, GRRM has provided another clue supporting an inference that he is real.

Edit: This is In addition to writing passages in such an ambiguous way that they are open to interpretation (I mean to provide this in my original post - sorry).

[Vympel]

The only members of GC who are blackfyre loyalists are the ones who descended from those exiled from the blackfyre rebellion. Those who fought against Selmy probably support blackfyre

Lets be clear, there's no evidence that it was anything other than the entire Golden Company that fought for Maelys the Monstrous. So yes, as of 40 years ago the Golden Company was still a Blackfyre organisation.

but the majority of GC memebrs come from various different rebellions and different reasons to have been exiled. Their goal is to return to their homeland, victorious. The point of carrying around Bittersteels skull is to put it in the throne room, not to put it up next to a blackfyre king. Up until now, blackfyres were their best shot of winning the iron throne. Then Aegon and JC came around and their goals are a possibility

The Golden Company was never created to simply "win the throne", it was to put a Blackfyre on the throne. Its entire reason for existing is based on the desires of Bittersteel.

[7OldDrownedRedGodsofLight]

If his head hadn't been smashed, nobody would believe Varys.

again, it begs the question, WHO would have recognized that it wasn't the true Aegon, the women would not have been looking, but rather crying, the Kingsguard wouldn't be able to tell the difference, Robert wouldn't have known the difference, nor would anyone who fought on his side in the rebellion. And even if Tywin could (how could he) he wouldn't have said as much because he was trying to gain Roberts favor.

[Quentyn the Blazed]

Lets be clear, there's no evidence that it was anything other than the entire Golden Company that fought for Maelys the Monstrous. So yes, as of 40 years ago the Golden Company was still a Blackfyre organisation.

The Golden Company was never created to simply "win the throne", it was to put a Blackfyre on the throne. Its entire reason for existing is based on the desires of Bittersteel.

Until Bittersteel's dying wish was to have his skull dipped in gold and to be placed in the throne room someday. He never mentions a blackfyre king in that wish.

how many sellswords have survived from the battle 40 years ago? There are old sellswords, but no brave old sellswords, and the GC pride themselves in bravery.

Like I said, blakcfyres were their best option to win the throne, so they fight for Maelys the Monstrous.

[butterbumps!]

And theres no need to counterpoint an arguement you didnt even read completely

And the former commander of the GC supported JCs plans for Aegon, when JC quit the GC. Read the text, the commander of the GC supported a Targ.

Also, i guess i was agreeing with you about how prophecies are shaky evidence? They mean whatever people want them to mean. The same can be said about Varys and Illyrios true intentions.

Its not happenstance GRRM made Aegon/Faegon so debatable

It's probably just my poor reading comprehension ;) , but I think I get it-- you're talking about the pact that JC made with Blackheart 12 years ago when he feigned drunknness and exile to raise Aegon. You're saying that Blackheart's acceptance of Aegon at this point shows that the GC is willing to take on a Targ cause. I don't see it quite this way, however. In JC's recollection, Varys put him up to it, and he harbors angry thoughts about the lie Varys makes him tell. We also see that Illyrio played a big role in this pact. Given what we know of Varys and Illyrio's predilection to set people up as pawns without their knowing the endgames at stake, I think there is reason to cast doubt that JC knew the extent of the plot here. I think Varys and Illyrio's heavy involvement points to this pact being not what it seems, and there's reason to suspect that JC might not know all the facets. For all we know, Varys and Illyrio could have easily been in touch with Blackheart regarding a Blackfyre campaign, and left that detail out to JC.

[Quentyn the Blazed]

It's probably just my poor reading comprehension ;) , but I think I get it-- you're talking about the pact that JC made with Blackheart 12 years ago when he feigned drunknness and exile to raise Aegon. You're saying that Blackheart's acceptance of Aegon at this point shows that the GC is willing to take on a Targ cause. I don't see it quite this way, however. In JC's recollection, Varys put him up to it, and he harbors angry thoughts about the lie Varys makes him tell. We also see that Illyrio played a big role in this pact. Given what we know of Varys and Illyrio's predilection to set people up as pawns without their knowing the endgames at stake, I think there is reason to cast doubt that JC knew the extent of the plot here. I think Varys and Illyrio's heavy involvement points to this pact being not what it seems, and there's reason to suspect that JC might not know all the facets. For all we know, Varys and Illyrio could have easily been in touch with Blackheart regarding a Blackfyre campaign, and left that detail out to JC.

plausible, to be sure...but you say yourself Varys and Illyrio are unreliable. Would Blackheart believe his fellow GC member, the respected JC (i can't remember, but wasn't he in line to take over after Blackheart?) or the creepy Eunoch and the fat cheesemonger?

The only way Blackheart would believe Aegon is a blackfyre is if the GC was aware of the remaining Blackfyre ladies (they should, anyways), and knew that Illyrios wife was a blackfyre. But then they would have to keep this from JC, one of their trusted leaders in the time period before JC learns of Aegon and leaves the GC. I dont see it.

EDIT: The fact that JC was next in line to lead GC shows how much their mission has changed. The favorite to take over was a Targ loyalist with a man-crush on the former crown prince..This alone challenges how the GC would feel about a Targ king

[Bravely Done]

The fact that the Golden Company fought for Maelys the Monstrous a mere 40 years prior to the series (i.e. within living memory) obviously negates any force behind the whole "Bittersteel lived 100 years ago".

What Bittersteel fought for and what Maelys fought for were completely different. One joined his brother to win him a throne, the other teamed up with 8 other sell swords and their "companies" for plunder and wealth.

And like I said, you may think it likely the Golden Company, whose words are "Beneath the gold, the Bittersteel", and who carries around his skull on their standard decided to abandon their charge merely because Bittersteel lived a long time ago - but I don't. Certainly not when the only reason we have to believe that Bittersteel's legacy has been abandoned is Illyrio Mopatis' say-so.

It's as if you guys don't even read the books...

ADWD, pg 307.

Lemore: We have gone great lenths to keep Prince Aegon hidden all these years. The time will come for him to wash his hair and declare himself, I know, but that time is not not. Not in a camp of sellswords.

Lemore: His because they're bought and paid for. Then thousand armed strangers, plus hanger-on and camp followers. All it takes is one to bring us all to ruin. If Hugors head was worth a lord's honors, how much will Cersei Lannister pay for the rightful heir to the iron throne? You do not know these men, my lords. It has been 12 years since you last rode with the Golden Company, and your old friend is dead.

JC/Griff: Blackheart. Myles Toyne had been so full of life the last time Griff had left him, it was hard to accept that he was gone. A golden skull atop a pole, and Homeless Harry Strickland in his place. Lemore was not wrong, he knew. Whatever their sires and grandsires might have been in Westeros before their exile, the men of the company were sellswords now, and no sellsword could be trusted.

ADWD Pg. 309

JC: Shall we go? Your army awaits your coming.

Aegon: I like the sound of that, my army. A smile flashed across his face, then vanished. Are they, though? They're sellswords. Yollo warned me to trust no one.

JC: There's wisdom in that. I might have been different if Blackheart still commanded, but Myles Tone was 4 years dead, and Homeless Harry Strickland was a different kind of man.

ADWD. Pg 312

JC: All the skulls were grinning, even Bittersteels on the tall pike in the middle. What does he have to grin about? He dides defeated and alone. A broken man in an alien island.

JC: Old friends greeted Griff with smiles and embraces, the new men more formally. Not all of them are as glad to see me as they would have me believe. He sensed knives behind some of the smiles.

ADWD. Pg 313

JC: Ghost and liars, Griff thought, as he surveyed their faces. Revenants from forgotten wars, lost causes, failed rebellions, a brotherhood of the failed in fallen. This is my army. This is our best hope.

Etc. Definitely sounds of the Blackfyre's of old.

I think you're significantly overstating what the text says in this regard. And frankly, Jon Connington's impressions of the Golden Company aren't the be all and end all of their motivations. He is after all a complete fool about the Targaryens.

I honestly don't think you know what you're talking about at this point. Jon Connington has served the last three Dragon kings. Aeyrs as hand, Rheagar as a brother in arms, soldier, and friend, and he's raised Aegon for the last 12 years. He served under Blackheart while amongst the GC, and rose to second command.

Jon Connington knows as much about the Targareyns and the GC better than most every character in the series.

[Lord Varys]

There are hints that Blackheart and Jon Connington were a gay couple, which in turn makes it quite unlikely to me, that Blackheart willingly tricked his lover and friend into believing that Aegon was Rhaegar's son. Nor do I believe that Jon Connington would have been risen this far among the ranks of the Golden Company if the Blackfyre cause would have been still alive in Blackheart's days. Connington still is a Targaryen loyalist to the bone.

Anyway, Connington would have demanded some proof about Aegon's identity before he accepted his role in the plot. Varys and Illyrio showing up with some platinum blone child would not have convinced me, especially since Connington knew Rhaegar very well, just as he knew little Aegon and Elia. If the boy Aegon appeared younger than Aegon Targaryen should be when he was delivered to Jon, Connington would not have gone along with the plan.

I don't see how Varys and Illyrio could have tricked Connington into backing a false Aegon.

[7OldDrownedRedGodsofLight]

There are hints that Blackheart and Jon Connington were a gay couple, which in turn makes it quite unlikely to me, that Blackheart willingly tricked his lover and friend into believing that Aegon was Rhaegar's son. Nor do I believe that Jon Connington would have been risen this far among the ranks of the Golden Company if the Blackfyre cause would have been still alive in Blackheart's days. Connington still is a Targaryen loyalist to the bone.

Anyway, Connington would have demanded some proof about Aegon's identity before he accepted his role in the plot. Varys and Illyrio showing up with some platinum blone child would not have convinced me, especially since Connington knew Rhaegar very well, just as he knew little Aegon and Elia. If the boy Aegon appeared younger than Aegon Targaryen should be when he was delivered to Jon, Connington would not have gone along with the plan.

I don't see how Varys and Illyrio could have tricked Connington into backing a false Aegon.

:agree:

It would have been much easier to trick whoever was in the Throne Room that a fake baby Aegon was real, than to trick Jon Connington into believing it.

[Bravely Done]

In a trial, when circumstantial evidence can be interpreted in such a way that it supports two opposing viewpoints equally, then as a matter of law neither can claim to be the correct interpretation.

This is exactly what I see happening with the LG/Aegon is real/LG/Aegon is fake arguments. Both sides are interpreting the exact same passages from the text but are coming up with opposing conclusions.

Personally, I think GRRM does not want us to be able to figure out whether LG/Aegon is real at this point in time (maybe because it bothers him that so many people figured out R + L =J). As such, for each clue that supports an inference that he is fake, GRRM has provided another clue supporting an inference that he is real.

I disagree. Aegon supporters are reading the text and applying it to the argument, while Aegon detractors disgregard the text as lies while loosley putting together prophecies and half sentences to advocate a notion that makes absolutely no sense given the material of the first 5 books.

JC was sceptical about the company and its leadership while Aegon was received with silence, yet I'm supposed to believe this is all some ruse so that the Blackfyres, which clearly no longer have a presence within the company, can rise again through Varys and Illirio Mopatis? Illirio Mopatis had a son, and gave him to the stranger Jon Connington at(who doesn't know) 5 years old to raise, so that he may avenge the Blackfyres for his late bedslave? The theory makes absolutely no sense.

[Bravely Done]

It's probably just my poor reading comprehension ;) , but I think I get it-- you're talking about the pact that JC made with Blackheart 12 years ago when he feigned drunknness and exile to raise Aegon. You're saying that Blackheart's acceptance of Aegon at this point shows that the GC is willing to take on a Targ cause. I don't see it quite this way, however. In JC's recollection, Varys put him up to it, and he harbors angry thoughts about the lie Varys makes him tell. We also see that Illyrio played a big role in this pact. Given what we know of Varys and Illyrio's predilection to set people up as pawns without their knowing the endgames at stake, I think there is reason to cast doubt that JC knew the extent of the plot here. I think Varys and Illyrio's heavy involvement points to this pact being not what it seems, and there's reason to suspect that JC might not know all the facets. For all we know, Varys and Illyrio could have easily been in touch with Blackheart regarding a Blackfyre campaign, and left that detail out to JC.

Blackfyre has been dead for 4 years. JC has raised Aegon for the last 12.

Your theory doesn't add up, especially since JC hardly recognizes most of the swords in the company.

[Maxpey]

I disagree. Aegon supporters are reading the text and applying it to the argument, while Aegon detractors disgregard the text as lies while loosley putting together prophecies and half sentences to advocate a notion that makes absolutely no sense given the material of the first 5 books.

JC was sceptical about the company and its leadership while Aegon was received with silence, yet I'm supposed to believe this is all some ruse so that the Blackfyres, which clearly no longer have a presence within the company, can rise again through Varys and Illirio Mopatis? Illirio Mopatis had a son, and gave him to the stranger Jon Connington at(who doesn't know) 5 years old to raise, so that he may avenge the Blackfyres for his late bedslave? The theory makes absolutely no sense.

Please understand that I am not saying your interpretation is wrong.

Rather, I am saying that I don't think that the evidence is strong enough for you to conclude that Aegon's detractors are incorrect because their theory makes absolutely no sense.

I just don't think either side can say definitively that they are right, given the contradictory clues and ambiguous passages in the text.

[butterbumps!]

Blackfyre has been dead for 4 years. JC has raised Aegon for the last 12.

Your theory doesn't add up, especially since JC hardly recognizes most of the swords in the company.

Sorry, I'm not sure what you're saying doesn't add up. 12 years ago, there was a 4 way arrangement between Varys, Illyrio, Blackheart and JC. Varys told JC that Aegon was alive and well (after 3-4 years of hiding), and would JC quit the GC to raise his friend's child. 4 years ago, Blackheart died, yet given the lack of surprise the current Commander shows when JC and Aegon come in, it leads JC to muse on whether Blackheart told more people in the Company about the Aegon plan. The fact that the original scheme/ pact occurred 12 years ago does not preclude the possibility that Varys/ Illyrio have subsequently remained in contact privately with Blackheart and other Commanders.

[The guy from the Vale]

It's probably just my poor reading comprehension ;) , but I think I get it-- you're talking about the pact that JC made with Blackheart 12 years ago when he feigned drunknness and exile to raise Aegon. You're saying that Blackheart's acceptance of Aegon at this point shows that the GC is willing to take on a Targ cause. I don't see it quite this way, however. In JC's recollection, Varys put him up to it, and he harbors angry thoughts about the lie Varys makes him tell. We also see that Illyrio played a big role in this pact. Given what we know of Varys and Illyrio's predilection to set people up as pawns without their knowing the endgames at stake, I think there is reason to cast doubt that JC knew the extent of the plot here. I think Varys and Illyrio's heavy involvement points to this pact being not what it seems, and there's reason to suspect that JC might not know all the facets. For all we know, Varys and Illyrio could have easily been in touch with Blackheart regarding a Blackfyre campaign, and left that detail out to JC.

IIRC, Connington doesn't even know the contents of the contract. It was discussed only by Illyrio and Blackheart. So, is there anything in that contract that would make it necessary for Connington to stay out of the loop, except for Aegon being fake?

[Bravely Done]

Sorry, I'm not sure what you're saying doesn't add up. 12 years ago, there was a 4 way arrangement between Varys, Illyrio, Blackheart and JC. Varys told JC that Aegon was alive and well (after 3-4 years of hiding), and would JC quit the GC to raise his friend's child. 4 years ago, Blackheart died, yet given the lack of surprise the current Commander shows when JC and Aegon come in, it leads JC to muse on whether Blackheart told more people in the Company about the Aegon plan. The fact that the original scheme/ pact occurred 12 years ago does not preclude the possibility that Varys/ Illyrio have subsequently remained in contact privately with Blackheart and other Commanders.

He didn't question who Blackheart told, he questioned whom Strickland told. Strickland explained to him that he told his men because they'd landed and grown restless in their wait for the Dragon Queen. According to Strickland, they were forced to leave to disputed lands and its plunder, as well as turn down contracts while waiting.

Had nothing to do with Blackheart.

[Bravely Done]

IIRC, Connington doesn't even know the contents of the contract. It was discussed only by Illyrio and Blackheart. So, is there anything in that contract that would make it necessary for Connington to stay out of the loop, except for Aegon being fake?

This is flase. Bllackheart, JC, Illyrio, Lemore, Haldon, and Varys were all privy to the pact.

[The guy from the Vale]

Care to give the relevant quote? My GF has my copy of ADWD, so it's a little hard for me to check

[butterbumps!]

This is flase. Bllackheart, JC, Illyrio, Lemore, Haldon, and Varys were all privy to the pact.

Not exactly. They were privy to a pact's being made, but this does not necessarily mean that all parties came away from it with the same knowledge or extent of the pact itself. The text hints strongly that Illryio and Blackheart (and possibly Varys) were the prime movers of this pact. I think it's entirely reasonable that there's something JC + co doesn't know here.

He didn't question who Blackheart told, he questioned whom Strickland told. Strickland explained to him that he told his men because they'd landed and grown restless in their wait for the Dragon Queen. According to Strickland, they were forced to leave to disputed lands and its plunder, as well as turn down contracts while waiting.

Had nothing to do with Blackheart.

Yes, it was Strickland he was dealing with at that moment and wondered who he may have told. But does that disprove the possibility that there may have been more to the original pact between Illyrio and Blackheart?