Aegon is Legitimate: It's Obvious, Right? (Long OP)

[EvilClosetMonkey]

Blackfyre theorist, you can have your opinions, I'm comfortable in my own. If someone fresh brings something new to the thread or has any questions about my theories or why I believe what I believe, I'll be happy to give you an answer, but arguing with the same 4 or 5 posters whom refuse to admit error, concede a point, ignore my questions and points, and assert their interpretations as fact has exhausted me. It's been fun, but I'm tired.

This is exactly why others have said they feel you are being deliberately obtuse. The same charges could be laid at your feet and really making such assertions is counterproductive.

On some points we'll have to agree to disagree (ie, Is Varys a trustworthy source in the epilogue?) but some arguments I truly don't understand how you can say that it is up for interpretation (ie, Did Varys know where Viserys & Dany where while they were wandering the free cities?)

[danm_999]

So you're arguing that the Mountain, who'd never even been to Kings Landing at this point, knew what Aegon looked like?

No, I'm arguing that Robert/Tywin/Ned are going to place a lot more weight in what the corpse they're given looks like than the Mountain's account of whether or not Elia was with Aegon or Rhaenys.

You implied that she should have left the babe alone in the nursery and left with Varys, did you not?

No.

I'm not even sure what you're arguing right here?

I'll reiterate.

Varys supposedly wants the people breaking into the Red Keep to believe the baby they find in the nursery is Prince Aegon. The point you and Ser Loudmouth make is that this explains why Elia is with switched Aegon, despite having another living child two floors down, because it's so important that the deception work.

But they've switched Aegon with a last minute fake that could fail the plan quite easily, so the point only works if you ignore earlier on how Varys doesn't seem to put much care how plausible the switch will seem in the medium to long term.

Are you questioning if the sack of Kings Landing, and in particular, the pillaging of Maegor's tower happened during the same span of time?

I'm questioning there wasn't enough time between the baby switch and Gregor's appearance for Elia to go two floors down to Rhaenys.

The mountain sounds like the type to smother babies with pillows. He's always so delicate, isn't he? He was very nice to Ellia as well.

This is the point. We only know the Mountain does things like this in retrospect. From the outset of the plan, Varys has no idea who was sent to kill Aegon, or how they'd do it. He can't be sure that the Mountain wouldn't stab Aegon in the stomach half a hundred times like Lorch did Rhaenys, which preserves Rhaenys face for identification.

If the Mountain had killed Aegon in any other way, the plan is in very serious trouble.

In any case, the baby having his head smashed was a plot device by Martin to keep the possibility of Aegon being alive feasible.

Or it's a fib from Varys who realises that nobody can positively ID Aegon's corpse after the sack, so he's free to conjure up a pretender who escaped somehow.

Pycelle could have recognized the boy, sure, but he didn't, and no one could. I'm not really sure why this is a point of discussion.

That the inability for Pycelle to recognise the boy isn't something Varys can predict. Hence the plan only making sense in retrospect.

Why are you assuming Jamie was familiar with Aegon?

Part of Jaime's job as KG is to watch over the King and his family on rotating shifts. He's going to be intimately familiar with all of them, especially so since he's the last KG left in the city.

It's not reasonable to say Jaime has never seen Aegon.

Um... what? The battle of the Trident happened a good deal of time before the sack of Kings Landing, and it was the Lannisters, not the Baratheons and Starks, that were responsible. Selmy was Robert's(who wasn't there initially, and this was known by Varys) prisoner at this point, and wasn't pardoned till much later.

What I'm saying is, Varys clearly doesn't know who is besieging King's Landing, else he'd have known Ned was coming and that Ned was liable to help rescue Rhaenys and Aegon.

His knowledge isn't omniscent, so he can't just hope there's nobody coming to KL's who can identify Aegon.

I don't even know what you're arguing anymore. You're all over the place.

It's really very simple. To keep a one year old and a sick woman alive, you need people to serve them. If one of those people spills the beans to the invaders about the switch, or about the identity of the corpse, Varys plan is sunk.

Whatever the case, it worked out.

My point is it didn't. Varys has conjured up a fake.

There's no point in discussing further if you're going dismiss the text because it contradicts what you believe.

I'm not dismissing the text, I'm following it. You're the one who said Elia has been conditioned to think Aegon is TPTWP, but you're only evidence is that Rhaegar said it to her once, and we don't even know if that it's a literal conversation that occured, because it's happens during Daenerys HOTU visions, which is a mix of things that might have happened, and spooky allegorical visions and people.

Even if the conversation occured, we have no way of knowing whether or not Elia accepted this, or thought it was horseshit.

Rhaegar had pre-conditioned Ellia to believe her son were the ptwp. What you think and feel is irrelevant, as what I said occurred in the novel.

In a highly symbolic vision. You're assuming it was a record of a literal conversation, and you're assuming Elia believed it. Believed it to the extent she was willing to wait for death with a fake child while a living one was two floors down.

[danm_999]

And how does anyone benefit from her death?

They don't. It's not about benefits, it's about a mother running to her last remaining child in panic and worry.

Again, maybe Elia was instructed to stay behind and do the deed herself if necessary.

What?

Danerys didn't really have any better options, And if she is just a backup option, it might be worth it to go for a long shot.

She had plenty of better options!

She could be not married to Drogo, she could be married to Aegon, or Viserys, she could be smuggled into Dorne, or she could be left in Pentos. If Illyrio is seriously a Targaryen loyalist, he'd know about Darry's pact with Dorne, he'd know about the Golden Company, he'd know about the upcoming turmoil in Westeros that makes Viserys, Aegon and Daenerys return a blessing.

But throwing away one of your remaining Targaryens on a long shot that's likely to result in their death, when there's no impetus to, indicates Illyrio isn't really a Targaryen supporter.

[Bravely Done]

This is exactly why others have said they feel you are being deliberately obtuse. The same charges could be laid at your feet and really making such assertions is counterproductive.

On some points we'll have to agree to disagree (ie, Is Varys a trustworthy source in the epilogue?) but some arguments I truly don't understand how you can say that it is up for interpretation (ie, Did Varys know where Viserys & Dany where while they were wandering the free cities?)

There's no reason to discuss this further, I have your arguments down. Contradictions and all.

Exhibit A: There's lots of people in Essos that look like Targaryen's, they aren't distinctive at all. You could con Jon Connington with Illyrio Mopatis son there's so many people in Essos that look like them. You know, the same Jon Connington that was so obsessively in love with Rhaegar that he forgot his face? With all the people in Essos with the blood of the old freehold it isn't very difficult to mistake someone as one of the Dragon-lords. Snatch up any little Lyseni babe, any one of them, and he'll grow up to look just like Rhaegar Targaryen. Purple eyes and all. Oh yea, and Visery's, who possessed no wealth, and had no political connections, was able to convince so many people in Essos that he was the true-born son of Aerys Targaryen that Varys and Illyrio knew he and his sisters every movement and local. Viserys and Daeynerys have the look after all. Oh yea, and the woman in Illyrio's locket is for sure a Blackfyre, she has pale blond hair and blue eyes. That isn't common.

Exhibit B: In a novel that was supposed to contain both ADWD and AFFC, Martin wrote Septon Meribald's story of the crossroad inn's dragon sign washing ashore, why would he do that if he weren't foreshadowing events to come? These are obvious implications that Aegon is a fake, and is in fact a Blackfyre. But then the book that was supposed to contain ADWD and AFFC concludes with a confirmation and admission from Varys that Aegon Targaryen is the genuine article. In that case, Varys is lying to Kevan, despite the fact that he was dead man when he received the admission. Remember when Littlefinger told Sansa to always keep up a lie? Same thing. Kevan could have told Pycelle. And even if Varys weren't lying to Kevan, he was lying to ensure his little birds didn't report to Illyrio Mopatis all the information Illyrio Mopatis was already privy to.

Exhibit C: Illyrio and Varys never helped Daenerys and Viserys when they were wandering the free cities poor and deprived! Illyrio just randomly took them in one day and offered Viserys permanent stay until the army he arranged for him was prepared to cross the narrow sea. Nothing they've done suggest they're interested in aiding the Targaryens. Illyrio gave Daenery's the dragon eggs that become Drogon, Rhegal, and Viserion, but that was only coincidental, plus they sent her no counsel! Only Barristan Selmy and Tyrion, and what council have they ever sat on? I tell you man, that Illyrio and Varys are untrustworthy liars. That's why people like Barristan the Bold and Jon Connington trust them, because you can't trust them. Ships, Belwas, the Golden Company? Pfft, they're Blackfyre's. The Golden Company, too. Sure, they don't act like it, and the lords that once constituted their ranks have largely faded in way of sellswords, but I'm sure Harry Strickland will be willing to dye for Aegon the way Bittersteel was willing to dye for Daemon Blackfyre. And yea, their original mission was to deliver Aegon Blackfyre to Daenery's Targaryen so they may be wed, but that's only just because. Aegon wants her hand bad too, heard it from the horses mouth. Hates the girl so much that he wants to marry her, and he's gonna go conquer some shit to prove to her how awesome he is in hopes that she'll find him worthy of her magnificence. Only because he hates her though, that's how Maleys woulda done it. That's what his papa Illyrio told em.

Exhibit D: Did you see how many times the Blackfyre's were referenced to in ADWD? Did you see it, did you see it? There were 4 times as many Blackfyre references in ADWD than the previous 4 books combined! Martin is obviously nodding to the future. Sort of like all those Arthur Dayne references that have maturated into important and independent plot lines. I mean, it's obvious, he's always this obvious with his writing, except when he writes in a deus ex machina. He'd never do that, never. And sure, most of the Blackfyre references were either Tyrion's or Connington's thoughts in context of the Golden Company and how shabby they had become, but what of it? Damn context.

You all are welcome to your opinions, your minds are made up and we're no longer getting anything out of this discussion. You're convinced Aegon will be Theon 2.0(Aegon as Theon, Connington as Robb/Ned, Daenerys as Ramsay), while I believe Aegon is the prince that was promised and second head of the dragon. You guys are right and I'm wrong of course, because the crossroad inn's black dragon sign washed ashore red, and because Varys is a lair, and because a bunch a people in Essos look like Targaryens, and because my theory has holes in it and doesn't stand under scrutiny while the Blackfyre theory doesn't and does, but I'll hold onto my crack pot of a theory for now. It was a fun discussion, but it's gotten redundant. Neither side is going to concede, so I'm bowing out. I appreciate you guys contributing to my thread though, it was a pretty good start for an original post.

[danm_999]

I'm practicing insanity. :stunned:

Blackfyre theorist, you can have your opinions, I'm comfortable in my own. If someone fresh brings something new to the thread or has any questions about my theories or why I believe what I believe, I'll be happy to give you an answer, but arguing with the same 4 or 5 posters whom refuse to admit error, concede a point, ignore my questions and points, and assert their interpretations as fact has exhausted me. It's been fun, but I'm tired.

You've not been doing that though. With all due respect, the past 20 or so pages is you pettifogging small details about the big holes being shot through your initial thesis, rather than actually tackling the key points of what Faegon supporters are saying. An example is that you've directed the conversation recently down the tangent that since it's not explicitly stated that Varys always knows Viserys and Daenerys are they didn't know where they were. The more pertinent issue is that Varys and Illyrio do nothing to aid these prominent people during their very public 15 year exile, despite supposedly being Targaryen loyalists, and that even if they didn't know where they were, finding them would have been laughably easy.

I think this is because the initial post you made, while well written and extensive, does not hold up to scrutiny in many areas, and suggesting your read on the text is "obvious", as you do in your title, and accuse others as so bull-headed to admit error and concede points is disengenious. You shouldn't mistake all those likes you get as a validation of everything about your point either. I "liked" your original post, even though I disagree with it, because you expressed yourself well and clearly, and gave us a forum for an interesting discussion.

I worry I'm getting a bit too ad-hominem against you here, so I'll finish by saying this; treat things here a little less adversarially. Most other posters are not out to get you, or ignore your questions, or bull rush through anything you say. Putting people on your ignore list because you don't feel they're agreeing with you, or calling them trolls (and in your defense, people have said this about you too, which I disagree with) is just going to detract from whatever itch you were trying to scratch when you decided to discuss a Song of Ice and Fire on these forums.

Most of the posters on this forum, even the ones you disagree with, and especially the ones in this thread, are very civil, and thoughtful, and are not at all like some of the chaos you'll find on other message boards or sites. So treat it a little less like you're the only sane person in the world, and a little more like differing valid interpretations exists in this series by design.

[EvilClosetMonkey]

There's no reason to discuss this further, I have your arguments down.

I would argue that based on your response, that is not true.

Exhibit A: There's lots of people in Essos that look like Targaryen's, they aren't distinctive at all. You could con Jon Connington with Illyrio Mopatis son there's so many people in Essos that look like Targaryen's, with all the people over there with the blood of the old freehold it's not very difficult to mistake someone as a Targaryen. Pick any little kid you want and he'll grow up to look like Rhaegar Targaryen.

I'm going to ignore the parts where you are just being rude.

The argument is that the blood of old Valyria is more common in Essos than Westeros. Therefore, if someone was so inclined, it would be possible to find a child that had those traits and maybe that child would be related to the Blackfyres through the female line. In the end, it matters little if they are or not, simply that it is reasonably possible for someone with resources to find a child or children with the requisite features.

Yet Visery's, who possessed no wealth, and had no political connections, was able to convince so many people in Essos that he was the true-born son of Aerys Targaryen that Varys and Illyrio knew their every movement and local. Oh yea, and the women in Illyrio's locket is for sure a Blackfyre, she was pale blond hair and blue eyes.

Viserys had no need to convince anyone that he is Aerys's last surviving son. Everyone is already aware and there is a clear chain of custody. Also, while the woman in the locket is part of the Blackfyre theory, I've actually never mentioned that part of the theory. It is supporting evidence but in no way conclusive.

Exhibit B: ... But then that book that was supposed to contain ADWD and AFFC concludes with a confirmation and admission from Varys that Aegon Targaryen is the genuine article. In that case, Varys is lying to Kevan, despite the fact that he was dead man when he received the admission. Remember when Littlefinger told Sansa to always keep up a lie? Same thing. And even if he weren't lying to Kevan, he was lying to ensure his little birds didn't report to Illyrio Mopatis all the information Illyrio Mopatis was already privy to.

That Varys was telling Kevan the whole truth is something that actually is up for interpretation and his speech is in no way a confirmation that Aegon is the real deal. Myself and others have given reasons why we think he might be lying or at least obscuring the whole truth. If you don't agree, that is fine but please stop trying to make it seem like no one has addressed this in a reasonable manner. If you'd like me to reiterate some of these reasons, please let me know.

Exhibit C: Illyrio and Varys never helped Daenerys and Viserys when they were wandering the free cities poor and deprived! Illyrio just randomly took them in one day and offered Viserys permanent stay until the army he arranged for him was prepared to cross the narrow sea. Nothing they've done suggest they're interested in aiding the Targaryens. Illyrio gave Daenery's the dragon eggs that become Drogon, Rhegal, and Viserion, but that was only coincidental...

Why did Illyrio take them in at that particular point in time is actually a very good question and I would love to know the answer. Sadly, I'm not aware of any textual support for speculation one way or another on that front. What is undeniable is that the Targaryen siblings spent many years wandering the free cities without help. They made no effort to hide who they where, at least not at first. How could Illyrio & Varys fail to notice where they were? If they are Targaryen loyalists, why did they wait so long to offer help? Are you suggesting that Illyrio knew Dany would hatch those eggs?

...plus they sent her no counsel!Only Barristan Selmy and Tyrion, and what counsel have they ever sat on? Ships, Belwas, the Golden Company? Pfft, they're Blackfyre's.

Barristan, Strong Belwas, the ships and Tyrion were only sent to Dany after she had dragons. Once she has dragons, she becomes important to whatever scheme Illyrio & Varys are playing out. It is unlikely Belwas, Groleo, Tyrion or Barristan know anything about a Blackfyre plot and it would be foolish of Varys & Illyrio to let them in on the secret. Also, I think it is perfectly reasonable to suspect the Golden Company of being tied up in a Blackfyre plot since that was the reason they were founded.

Here's the thing, when you put out a theory people will argue against it. Part of the process of getting to the bottom of what is actually happening in these books is bringing up points for and against any given theory. If someone puts out a piece of evidence that doesn't fit the narrative of your theory, then that needs to be accounted for. The theory needs to adapt to account for that evidence and if it can't then either we don't have enough information or at least part of that theory is incorrect.

Very few people are saying that the Blackfyre theory is absolutely true. What most of the people who are arguing with you are saying is that your theory does not adequately account for some pieces of evidence and that until it does we have trouble believing in this theory.

[Nagisa Furukawa]

The core reasons people source for doubting the legitimacy of the newly revealed Aegon are Dany's visions while in the house of undying of the cloth Dragon, Quathe's prophecies of mummer's Dragons, wether or not the switch were possible, and the motivations, whatever they are, of Varys and Illyrio Mopatis.

1. For starters, I can’t seem to gather why people hesitate to believe Varys is a Targaryen loyalist? On page 636 of a GOT, while sitting in his cell beneath the red keep, Eddard Stark and Varys engaged in the following dialogue.

Ned: "Just as you let me believe you were mine. Tell me, Lord Varys, who do you truly serve?"

Varys: "Why, the realm, my good lord, how ever would you doubt that? I serve the realm, and the realm needs peace."

Initially of course, on your first read through of the series, you have every reason to doubt his statement or scoff at the notion of his intentions being peace, and his motivations being that which best serves the realm. He's the master of whispers, painted as devious and void of scruples, as manipulative, treacherous and deceitful. Obviously, he doesn't truly serve the realm, or does he? Have his actions not supported his service to the Targaryen's from the very beginning?

He doesn't want true peace in the realm. He kills Kevan Lannister BECAUSE with him, Tommen might actually achieve stability compared to the last few years, but kills him to cast suspicion and unrest once again, leading to a situation where he could put Young Griff on the Throne.

[mcb]

It's probably best for everyone's mental health — especially poor Dragonfish, who's far more patient than I am — if people just ignored him and stopped arguing in circles.

I called it two days ago. And once again good people of this forum follow in my footsteps. :smug:

[corbon]

I suspect that, if it's anything, it's Illyrio being sloppy. People who come up with "grand plans" often want to get credit for them. Illyrio's broad hinting could be such an attempt, goading Tyrion — recklessly, yes — into guessing the overall plan and "acknowledging" Illyrio's role in it and the cleverness involved. It has to be like knowing a juicy secret but knowing you can't ever tell anyone; the temptation must be immense, and you might not be able to stop yourself from dropping hints.

Magnificent.

Thats a totally unacceptable reason for Varys to be telling the truth to Kevan, but good enough for llyrio to hint at the truth to Tyrion (whom he has very much less control over thereafter)... :thumbsdown:

There is plenty of room for either "Aegon is real" or "Aegon is false", and people overstate the 'problems' with either or both vastly.

[corbon]

You've not been doing that though. With all due respect, the past 20 or so pages is you pettifogging small details about the big holes being shot through your initial thesis, rather than actually tackling the key points of what Faegon supporters are saying.

Those key points have ben shot down or 'reasonably answered' plenty of times before in other threads. The Faegon supporters are just as dogmatic as the OP, just slightly less confrontational about it. There simply isn't any point in rehashing all this again. Some people choose one of the theories and cling to it no matter what (on both sides). A few accept that both theories are still quite credible.

[danm_999]

Those key points have ben shot down or 'reasonably answered' plenty of times before in other threads. The Faegon supporters are just as dogmatic as the OP, just slightly less confrontational about it. There simply isn't any point in rehashing all this again. Some people choose one of the theories and cling to it no matter what (on both sides). A few accept that both theories are still quite credible.

As have the counter arguments in other threads. I agree; as it stands, there's not really confirmation one way or the other, hence the debate is facilitated. However, I'd say the pro-Aegon arguments haven't been well articulated in this thread, and I don't think the correct reaction to this quandry is to begin getting hostile and unneccesarily angry with people, as increasingly happened with the topic creator in this thread.

[Bravely Done]

You've not been doing that though. With all due respect, the past 20 or so pages is you pettifogging small details about the big holes being shot through your initial thesis, rather than actually tackling the key points of what Faegon supporters are saying. An example is that you've directed the conversation recently down the tangent that since it's not explicitly stated that Varys always knows Viserys and Daenerys are they didn't know where they were. The more pertinent issue is that Varys and Illyrio do nothing to aid these prominent people during their very public 15 year exile, despite supposedly being Targaryen loyalists, and that even if they didn't know where they were, finding them would have been laughably easy.

I think this is because the initial post you made, while well written and extensive, does not hold up to scrutiny in many areas, and suggesting your read on the text is "obvious", as you do in your title, and accuse others as so bull-headed to admit error and concede points is disengenious. You shouldn't mistake all those likes you get as a validation of everything about your point either. I "liked" your original post, even though I disagree with it, because you expressed yourself well and clearly, and gave us a forum for an interesting discussion.

I worry I'm getting a bit too ad-hominem against you here, so I'll finish by saying this; treat things here a little less adversarially. Most other posters are not out to get you, or ignore your questions, or bull rush through anything you say. Putting people on your ignore list because you don't feel they're agreeing with you, or calling them trolls (and in your defense, people have said this about you too, which I disagree with) is just going to detract from whatever itch you were trying to scratch when you decided to discuss a Song of Ice and Fire on these forums.

Most of the posters on this forum, even the ones you disagree with, and especially the ones in this thread, are very civil, and thoughtful, and are not at all like some of the chaos you'll find on other message boards or sites. So treat it a little less like you're the only sane person in the world, and a little more like differing valid interpretations exists in this series by design.

Ya know, I'd give the above more merit if the same group of posters weren't in previous pro-Aegon arguments with the same erroneous, contradictory arguments. With the same stubborness and unwillingness to offer contrary opinions credence. But alas, they were, and the above is greeted with indifference. And then I look down at all the contradictions below and laugh at the notion that my arguments and opinions are somehow inferior to your own, and that what I've posted is flawed and littered with wholes while the arguments of detractors have been as solid as a rock.

There's no reason to discuss this further, I have your arguments down. Contradictions and all.

Exhibit A: There's lots of people in Essos that look like Targaryen's, they aren't distinctive at all. You could con Jon Connington with Illyrio Mopatis son there's so many people in Essos that look like them. You know, the same Jon Connington that was so obsessively in love with Rhaegar that he forgot his face? With all the people in Essos with the blood of the old freehold it isn't very difficult to mistake someone as one of the Dragon-lords. Snatch up any little Lyseni babe, any one of them, and he'll grow up to look just like Rhaegar Targaryen. Purple eyes and all. Oh yea, and Visery's, who possessed no wealth, and had no political connections, was able to convince so many people in Essos that he was the true-born son of Aerys Targaryen that Varys and Illyrio knew he and his sisters every movement and local. Viserys and Daeynerys have the look after all, and there's no way people ever would have ever suspected they were just a couple Lyseni trying to pass themselves off as royalty. Because everyone knew where they were, remember? It was no secret. That's why Sir Willem fled with them to Bravos as Robert was stamping out their family line and conquering their realm, so everyone could know where they are. Oh yea, and the woman in Illyrio's locket is for sure a Blackfyre, she has pale blond hair and blue eyes. That isn't common.

Exhibit B: In a novel that was supposed to contain both ADWD and AFFC, Martin wrote Septon Meribald's story of the crossroad inn's dragon sign washing ashore, why would he do that if he weren't foreshadowing events to come? These are obvious implications that Aegon is a fake, and is in fact a Blackfyre. But then the book that was supposed to contain ADWD and AFFC concludes with a confirmation and admission from Varys that Aegon Targaryen is the genuine article. In that case, Varys is lying to Kevan, despite the fact that he was dead man when he received the admission. Remember when Littlefinger told Sansa to always keep up a lie? Same thing. Kevan could have told Pycelle. And even if Varys weren't lying to Kevan, he was lying to ensure his little birds didn't report to Illyrio Mopatis all the information Illyrio Mopatis was already privy to.

Exhibit C: Illyrio and Varys never helped Daenerys and Viserys when they were wandering the free cities poor and deprived! Illyrio just randomly took them in one day and offered Viserys permanent stay until the army he arranged for him was prepared to cross the narrow sea. Nothing they've done suggest they're interested in aiding the Targaryens. Illyrio gave Daenery's the dragon eggs that become Drogon, Rhegal, and Viserion, but that was only coincidental, plus they sent her no counsel! Only Barristan Selmy and Tyrion, and what council have they ever sat on? I tell you man, that Illyrio and Varys are untrustworthy liars. That's why people like Barristan the Bold and Jon Connington trust them, because you can't trust them. Ships, Belwas, the Golden Company? Pfft, they're Blackfyre's. The Golden Company, too. Sure, they don't act like it, and the lords that once constituted their ranks have largely faded in way of sellswords, but I'm sure Harry Strickland will be willing to dye for Aegon the way Bittersteel was willing to dye for Daemon Blackfyre. And yea, their original mission was to deliver Aegon Blackfyre to Daenery's Targaryen so they may be wed, but that's only just because. Aegon wants her hand bad too, heard it from the horses mouth. Hates the girl so much that he wants to marry her, and he's gonna go conquer some shit to prove to her how awesome he is in hopes that she'll find him worthy of her magnificence. Only because he hates her though, that's how Maleys woulda done it. That's what his papa Illyrio told em.

Exhibit D: Did you see how many times the Blackfyre's were referenced to in ADWD? Did you see it, did you see it? There were 4 times as many Blackfyre references in ADWD than the previous 4 books combined! Martin is obviously nodding to the future. Sort of like all those Arthur Dayne references that have maturated into important and independent plot lines. I mean, it's obvious, he's always this obvious with his writing, except when he writes in a deus ex machina. He'd never do that, never. And sure, most of the Blackfyre references were either Tyrion's or Connington's thoughts in context of the Golden Company and how shabby they had become, but what of it? Damn context.

You all are welcome to your opinions, your minds are made up and we're no longer getting anything out of this discussion. You're convinced Aegon will be Theon 2.0(Aegon as Theon, Connington as Robb/Ned, Daenerys as Ramsay), while I believe Aegon is the prince that was promised and second head of the dragon. You guys are right and I'm wrong of course, because the crossroad inn's black dragon sign washed ashore red, and because Varys is a lair, and because a bunch a people in Essos look like Targaryens, and because my theory has holes in it and doesn't stand under scrutiny while the Blackfyre theory doesn't and does, but I'll hold onto my crack pot of a theory for now. It was a fun discussion, but it's gotten redundant. Neither side is going to concede, so I'm bowing out. I appreciate you guys contributing to my thread though, it was a pretty good start for an original post.

[danm_999]

Ya know, I'd give the above more merit if the same group of posters weren't in previous pro-Aegon arguments with the same erroneous, contradictory arguments. With the same stubborness and unwillingness to offer contrary opinions credence. But alas, they were, and the above is greeted with indifference. And then I look down at all the contradictions below and laugh at the notion that my arguments and opinions are somehow inferior to your own, and that what I've posted is flawed and littered with wholes while the arguments of detractors have been as solid as a rock.

I feel you're getting into strawman territory here, and that you're resorting to some sort of meta-criticism of Faegon that's not present in this thread.

As to me "looking down on your opinion", I'm sorry if you get that feeling. In fact, I've admitted that it's purely speculation whether Aegon is fake or real, and said to you that we have valid differing interpretations that will not be right or wrong until we get more information. My issue was the way you were reacting to the arguments being presented, by being bogged down in the minutiae, as well as the absolutism you presented (like in how you call Aegon being legit as "obvious" for example, when, if this thread has taught us anything, it's clearly not).

[7V3N]

To those claiming the resemblance is too good for Aegon to be fake:

Gendry and Sansa are both said to look like Robert and Cat respectively for two reasons that are continually and specifically stated--hair and eyes. Ned notices Gendry's eyes, everyone knows the Tully's for their auburn hair. Yes, they may indeed just look like their parents. But everyone takes notice of the eyes and hair.

Aegon has eye and hair color that matches Rhaegar's.

[mcb]

To those claiming the resemblance is too good for Aegon to be fake:

Gendry and Sansa are both said to look like Robert and Cat respectively for two reasons that are continually and specifically stated--hair and eyes. Ned notices Gendry's eyes, everyone knows the Tully's for their auburn hair. Yes, they may indeed just look like their parents. But everyone takes notice of the eyes and hair.

Aegon has eye and hair color that matches Rhaegar's.

And Daemon Blackfyre's.

[butterbumps!]

I'm practicing insanity. :stunned:

Blackfyre theorist, you can have your opinions, I'm comfortable in my own. If someone fresh brings something new to the thread or has any questions about my theories or why I believe what I believe, I'll be happy to give you an answer, but arguing with the same 4 or 5 posters whom refuse to admit error, concede a point, ignore my questions and points, and assert their interpretations as fact has exhausted me. It's been fun, but I'm tired.

I believe my original lays my beliefs out plain, and I'm confident I'll be vindicated and Aegon wont be written as Theon 2.0 come Winds of Winter. Good reading till then. (Apple Martini, Dragonfish, Toccs, Butterbumps)

Bravely Done,

I have made precisely 1 error in this entire thread, a point made in jest, and Dragonfish corrected me and I immediately realized I'd been mistaken and added an edit to admit it was a mistake (it was about the Dance of the Dragons =/= Blackfyre Rebellion). When I have made an argument that was based on extending logic, drawing on "common sense" or "reading between the lines," I was always upfront about the fact that this is what I was doing-- I made my arguments extremely transparent. To be honest, the vast majority of my posts were not asserting anything, but responding to inaccuracies that you and others posited as fact that were not actually supported in the text; I provided you with quotes to support everything I've said.

The sad part of this is that those you are accusing of being obtuse and unfounded have been keen to work out a common ground ground with you. We've been trying to get on even footing, to get to a point where we agree on a consistent premise from which to operate, but I think you've been very inflexible, or have perhaps interpreted our criticisms as attacks on you personally and/ or thinking we are saying that your entire theory is worthless. This is not the case, and for those of us who believe Aegon is not Rhaegar's son, I think many of us wanted our views to be challenged rigorously-- at least for me, such interrogation helps me draw my thoughts out more precisely and gives me something to consider when I've overlooked something. I always admit when I'm wrong about a point, however, you have not said anything to support the belief that I have been wrong about anything you've challenged me on; in fact, the reverse is true, where you have been unwilling to accept a number of things that I've pointed out that you had overlooked.

I really wish that there was a point in this where we met at common ground to enrich both sides of the argument. Anyway, I'm probably going to write an OP for a new thread from the opposite viewpoint since this will probably be locked soon that will hopefully lay out the "new arguments" you say you'd like to see.

[Lord Varys]

The theory that Varys kills Ser Kevan because with him as Regent King Tommen would actually be able to pacify the whole Realm makes no sense at all. Ser Kevan is average guy, and even if he would be brilliant, he would not have the resources or the manpower to deal with Euron, Littlefinger, Stannis, Roose Bolton, or the Martells.

Varys kills Ser Kevan because with him around King Tommen's administration might actually be able to deal with Aegon in time. Varys wants Aegon on the Iron Throne. But he does not create or cause a new civil war by killing Kevan. Aegon has already landed. That caused the war. And even before that, King Tommen was already doomed due to the fact that the Realm is disintegrated, threatened by Ironborn, Littlefinger's schemes, outlaws in the Riverlands, King Stannis in the North etc.

Had Ser Kevan lived, he might have successfully dealt with the Golden Company, but I very much doubt he would have been able to defeat Stannis, Euron, or Littlefinger.

[TheMysteriousOne]

Aegon has eye and hair color that matches Rhaegar's.

Yes, Aegon has the eye and hair color, but so did more than half the Targaryens. And in Essos, its even harder to tell Targaryen from non-Targaryen. Many people have the blood of old Valyria in Essos, if Illyrio and Varys looked hard enough, they probably would find someone with the silver gold hair and purple eyes. And people also see what they wanna see, Littlefinger sees Cat in Sansa, not only because she really looks like her, but because he loved Cat and wanted her his whole life.

[MyLifeIsNotSoPrecious]

Ya know, I'd give the above more merit if the same group of posters weren't in previous pro-Aegon arguments with the same erroneous, contradictory arguments. With the same stubborness and unwillingness to offer contrary opinions credence. But alas, they were, and the above is greeted with indifference. And then I look down at all the contradictions below and laugh at the notion that my arguments and opinions are somehow inferior to your own, and that what I've posted is flawed and littered with wholes while the arguments of detractors have been as solid as a rock.

Here are some of the things I've seen you argue in this thread to either support your claim or refute other poster's claims.

1. Targaryens are immune to fire and sickness. (this has been disproved by the text and the author himself.)

2. Whether or not someone is part of the royal line has an effect on their genetics. (but Blackfyre theorists are the ones making stuff up)

3. Females cannot carry on the family line.(completely false-we see that Maege Mormont's daughters have the surname Mormont and are the heirs to Bear Island)

4. Jaehaerys I and Alysanne might be bastards because we don't know who their mother was.

5. Jon being the trueborn son of Rhaegar is a baseless theory.

6. Varys' little birds have no tongues and therefore cannot communicate with anyone. (so Varys reads their minds then?)

7. Illyrio knew Dany would hatch dragons when he gave her petrified stone eggs.(So if I gave you five dollars and you use it to buy a lottery ticket and win a million dollars, does that mean I gave you a million dollars?)

So how is it that your argument has stronger merits than anyone elses argument?

[TheMysteriousOne]

I find it almost annoying that through 33 pages of posts we haven't found any common ground on either of the theories. I, myself, am still trying to decide on which theory I find to be more accurate. Originally, I thought that Aegon was a legitimate Targaryen, but now I'm starting to believe he's a Blackfyre. I'm starting to see the holes in Varys' supposed plan to switch baby Aegon with a fake. @Bravely Done, I think you're taking it to personally, no one is intentionally trying to denounce your arguments, your OP was good, but then you started insulting other people's theories which seems to suggest that you don't want to own up to the inconsistencies in your own arguments.