Aegon is Legitimate: It's Obvious, Right? (Long OP)

[7V3N]

And Daemon Blackfyre's.

My point exactly. I was trying to prove that the hair and eyes are what people see to claim resemblance. That the facial features may not be very close. But those "unique" features--the hair and the eyes. So it could definitely be from a Blackfyre.

Yes, Aegon has the eye and hair color, but so did more than half the Targaryens. And in Essos, its even harder to tell Targaryen from non-Targaryen. Many people have the blood of old Valyria in Essos, if Illyrio and Varys looked hard enough, they probably would find someone with the silver gold hair and purple eyes. And people also see what they wanna see, Littlefinger sees Cat in Sansa, not only because she really looks like her, but because he loved Cat and wanted her his whole life.

That was my point. That anybody with the right hair and eyes could be brought in and people would see those features and instantly think Rhaegar (or whomever).

[KyleLitke]

Okay, about the dragon sign. I'm not firmly on either side of the Blackfyre argument, but I'm curious how that would be explained if he's not. I know, I know, a story, but hear me out...what is another example in this series of a story with no purpose? Not saying they don't exist, but I can't think of one. The stories always fill one or more of a few different roles. They're important to the plot directly (doubtful here). They're a prophecy (I don't think so here). They're important to world building (the Blackfyre stories could be, the sign story is not). They're used to enhance the character of the storyteller or those reacting to it (not really here). Or it's foreshadowing (which is likely what this would be). GRRM, to my recollection, doesn't waste words with totally meaningless stories that contribute abosolutely nothing to the plot, the future of the story, the characters, or the overall world they're in...why would he suddenly start now with a random useless story about a sign?

It's hardly definitive proof, the story could be a red herring rather than foreshadowing, or we could be misinterpreting its meaning, but I think it's incorrect to write it off as "just some random story".

[Maxpey]

Okay, about the dragon sign. I'm not firmly on either side of the Blackfyre argument, but I'm curious how that would be explained if he's not. I know, I know, a story, but hear me out...what is another example in this series of a story with no purpose? Not saying they don't exist, but I can't think of one. The stories always fill one or more of a few different roles. They're important to the plot directly (doubtful here). They're a prophecy (I don't think so here). They're important to world building (the Blackfyre stories could be, the sign story is not). They're used to enhance the character of the storyteller or those reacting to it (not really here). Or it's foreshadowing (which is likely what this would be). GRRM, to my recollection, doesn't waste words with totally meaningless stories that contribute abosolutely nothing to the plot, the future of the story, the characters, or the overall world they're in...why would he suddenly start now with a random useless story about a sign?

It's hardly definitive proof, the story could be a red herring rather than foreshadowing, or we could be misinterpreting its meaning, but I think it's incorrect to write it off as "just some random story".

I think everybody agrees that GRRM intended the rusted 3 headed black dragon sign washing up on shore as foreshadowing.

The theory that it represents a Blackfyre returning to Westeros pretending to be a Targaryen (i.e., LG/Aegon) is the most reasonable.

However, I think it's possible that GRRM intended the sign to be foreshadowing of the controversy that will erupt in Westeros concerning LG/Aegon's legitimacy. A dragon has landed, but is it a Targaryen or a Blackfyre? It looks like a Targaryen on the surface, but looks can be deceiving.

[EvilClosetMonkey]

I think everybody agrees that GRRM intended the rusted 3 headed black dragon sign washing up on shore as foreshadowing.

The theory that it represents a Blackfyre returning to Westeros pretending to be a Targaryen; in other words, LG/Aegon is the most reasonable.

But I think it could be symbolic of the debate that will inevitably rage in Westeros concerning LG/Aegon's legitimacy. A dragon has landed, but is it a Targaryen or a Blackfyre? It looks like a Targaryen, but looks can be deceiving. The answer to that question may decide whether LG/Aegon's campaign is a success or a failure.

I agree that it is most likely that it represents a Blackfyre pretending to be a Targaryen. But it occurs to me that it could represent the Golden Company landing in support of a real Targaryen. They once supported the black but now support the red because as Illyrio says, a dragon is a dragon. This also fits with the idea that the Golden Company is not what it once was, just as the sign once was black but is now rusted and red. The sign washes up as red because that is how the Golden Company gets home to Westeros.

[KyleLitke]

That's more than fair, I only brought it up because somebody (perhaps Bravely Done but not sure) was saying earlier it was just a meaningless story. It could certainly foreshadow something other than Aegon being a Blackfyre, I would just be shocked if the story was totally meaningless in every way.

[EvilClosetMonkey]

I completely agree. The story is there for a reason and I think the reason is a Blackfyre pretending to be a Targaryen but the story alone proves nothing. It can be interpreted both ways, as I'm sure GRRM intended.

[bent branch]

The main point about the rusted dragon sign is that it is the best piece of evidence for the Blackfyre theory. But as the last four posts indicate, that too can be interpreted different ways. I believe we are not supposed to be able tell if Aegon is Rhaegar's son at this point.

[EvilClosetMonkey]

I really wish that there was a point in this where we met at common ground to enrich both sides of the argument. Anyway, I'm probably going to write an OP for a new thread from the opposite viewpoint since this will probably be locked soon that will hopefully lay out the "new arguments" you say you'd like to see.

I for one welcome our new Butterbumpian overlords.

I hope you do write that post, I'm interested in having that discussion and trying to clarify my thoughts on this.

[Ser Loudmouth]

Introducing such an important character that late in the series is a move fitting bad fan faction.

Not this again!

- Book 5 is not "late in the series" since book 5 was initially supposed to be book 2

- Aegon is named allready in AGoT and seen (via Dany's vision) allready in ACoK, so it's not like he was just introduced anyway. Compare that to Bloodraven, who wasn't even named once in the main series until now. Should we deduce from this that Bloodraven isn't real? Or compare to Ashara Danyne, who is supposed to have been dead for as long as Aegon, yet many people insist (with no evidence whatsoever) that she is sitll alive (and is Septa Lemore). Or compare him to Gerion Lannister or Howland Reed, who were only mentioned but never seen so far yet many people believe that GRRM will introduce them in one of the next books. Will that make him "a bad fanfic author"

No, I'm arguing that Robert/Tywin/Ned are going to place a lot more weight in what the corpse they're given looks like than the Mountain's account of whether or not Elia was with Aegon or Rhaenys.

Varys supposedly wants the people breaking into the Red Keep to believe the baby they find in the nursery is Prince Aegon. The point you and Ser Loudmouth make is that this explains why Elia is with switched Aegon, despite having another living child two floors down, because it's so important that the deception work.

We are talking about a small baby (and small babies have fewer distinguishing features compared to adults) which Robert/Tywin/Ned wouldn't have known personally anyway. If there are no othe elements to arouse suspicion, then maybe they won't bother to check the corpse anyway. It's worth the try. What better chance of survival does Aegon have?

I'm questioning there wasn't enough time between the baby switch and Gregor's appearance for Elia to go two floors down to Rhaenys.

We don't know exactly when the switch has happened, so maybe there really was no time

They don't. It's not about benefits, it's about a mother running to her last remaining child in panic and worry.

Elia can't save any of her children by fighting off the attackers, so why bother? But she can improve Aegon's chances of escape (and again, Aegon is the one in greater danger of being killed) if she does everyting in her power to perpetuate the deception.

Now about the often asked questio of why Varys din't help Viserys and Dany if he is a Targaryen loyalist, I have the following answer:

- Varys may not want to burden himself with viserys (Mad King 2.0 - if successfull will cause just as much trouble for the dinasty as the original) if he has the much more competend Aegon

- Making contact with the two known Targaryen children would risk attracting undue attention and expose the conspirators. And Doran Martell has the same excuse: he was terrified to contact Viserys ahead of time for fear of enemy spies.

Illiryo only contacted Dany when he had a good reason and excuse (brokering the wedding). And the wedding was actually a way of quickly and decisively improving Dany's situation.

She had plenty of better options!

She could be not married to Drogo, she could be married to Aegon, or Viserys, she could be smuggled into Dorne, or she could be left in Pentos. If Illyrio is seriously a Targaryen loyalist, he'd know about Darry's pact with Dorne, he'd know about the Golden Company, he'd know about the upcoming turmoil in Westeros that makes Viserys, Aegon and Daenerys return a blessing.

If Dany doesn't marry Drogo, she will end up broke and starve to death. She doesn't know about Aegon, Viserys is just as poor, and the Dornish won't contact her for fear of spies. So yes, the marriage to Drogo, as risky as it was, was the best thing that could happen to Dany.

But what would be the bigger stretch of logic for Tyrion: That baby Aegon was successfully smuggled out of a chaotic sacking, or that a line that's already been beaten up several times and is extinct in the male line is successfully passing off one of their own as a Targaryen?

Is that an admission that the "Aegon is a Blackfyre" theory is less reasonable than the "Aegon is legitimate" theory :P

[Rheagar Prime]

i for one am of the camp that think aegon is legitimate and is rooting for him. If it doesn't reveal i am wrong then so be it until then i doubt anyone's argument will change my mind since its all speculation and opinion based, but i must admit that arguments from both sides are at times quite compelling. OP i think you did a brilliant job and its nice to see you sticking to your claim with such enthusiasm and always use book evidence to back it. I must wonder if you are a literature student.

[EvilClosetMonkey]

Varys may not want to burden himself with viserys (Mad King 2.0 - if successfull will cause just as much trouble for the dinasty as the original) if he has the much more competend Aegon

But how can Varys know that Aegon won't be just as bad? The Targaryen madness may be in him and he has no way of knowing that Aegon will be competent at this point.

If Varys was so against Mad King 1.0, why did he tell the king that Rhaegar was looking to take over? Rhaegar would have been a preferable king to Aerys, right?

Making contact with the two known Targaryen children would risk attracting undue attention and expose the conspirators. And Doran Martell has the same excuse: he was terrified to contact Viserys ahead of time for fear of enemy spies.

Enemy spies is a good reason to not make direct contact, at least for Doran. Though I have to wonder if he could have lent indirect support. The problem for this argument as applied to Varys is that the Varys is the enemy spymaster. They report to him. Also, if Illyrio lends support to to the Targaryen children, how does that endanger him? Is King Bob going to make war on Pentos?

Illiryo only contacted Dany when he had a good reason and excuse (brokering the wedding). And the wedding was actually a way of quickly and decisively improving Dany's situation.

I'm pretty sure there are numerous good reasons that Illyrio could have come up with for aiding the last known Targaryens. I just don't see how the wedding was a way to decisively improve Dany's situation. Illyrio expected her to die. That hardly seems an improvement.

If Dany doesn't marry Drogo, she will end up broke and starve to death. She doesn't know about Aegon, Viserys is just as poor, and the Dornish won't contact her for fear of spies. So yes, the marriage to Drogo, as risky as it was, was the best thing that could happen to Dany.

You make it sound as if the marriage to Drogo was Dany's choice. She was decidedly against it in the beginning. Viserys agreed to it because he thought he was getting an army. Illyrio agreed to it (on the surface at least) because he got stuff for brokering the deal. Dany was not given a choice. And you know who does know about Aegon? Illyrio. Seems that if Illyrio is a really a Targaryen loyalist that marrying Dany to Aegon would be a great move. Plus, it helps remove some of the concern about him being a pretender because even if he is, people know dany is a real Targaryen. Also, how nice of the Targaryen loyalist to let her starve to death if she doesn't marry the rapey, savage horselord.

[TheMysteriousOne]

YOU KNOW WHAT JUST CAME TO MY MIND:

Obviously, Ilyrio and Varys know that Viserys called himself the rightful King of Westeros, right. Well, why would they groom Aegon to be king, when they know that Viserys is 'king' and he would have a problem with it, unless they knew beforehand that Viserys would die, which is almost implausible. They should know that there would be conflict between Viserys and Aegon over control of Iron Throne, and that itself might cause a war. It suggests to me that Illyrio and Varys aren't very good Targaryen loyalists.

[Tagganaro]

I have one question, and I'm not sure it has been answered. I've tried to keep up with most of the thread but I'm not sure if I missed something. If Illyrio/Varys are true Targ loyalists and know that the true Aegon exists, why wouldn't they hook him up with Viserys/Dany when they could have? Obviously Dany and Viserys were staying with Illyrio for a little bit, and Illyrio seems to have always kept up with where Young Griff was, so why not make sure they're together?

The only explanation seems to be that he wanted Viserys/Dany to attack Westeros with the Dothraki, turn Westeros against them, and then produce Young Griff/Aegon to be the savior? Why else keep the siblings separated?

[Swordsaint]

Varys/illyrio are not Targ loyalists they're pretenders. Aegon is a fake! They couldn't just simply kill the other Targs because it would raise too much suspicion on their future plans.

[Scipio Africanus]

Varys/illyrio are not Targ loyalists they're pretenders. Aegon is a fake! They couldn't just simply kill the other Targs because it would raise too much suspicion on their future plans.

If they were grooming "Aegon" and banking that he'd get his own support in Westeros, they wouldn't need the "real" Targs. Illyrio up to the very end still supports Dany, and goes through great expenses to do so even if his original plan to invade Westeros with 100000 Dothraki screamers failed.

That's the only thing that puzzles me, the continued support of Illyrio to Dany. I suppose the original intention was for "Aegon" to save Westeros after Viserys/Dany invaded that country with hordes of Dothraki, but he did spend a lot of money on Dany and keeps doing so even he has a plan A (Aegon).

[Lummel]

once Daenerys has dragons she moves from liability to asset. The intention in ADWD seems to be to marry her to Aegon, which presumably they hoped would give their cause the dragons. Presumably when Illyrio sent the three ships in ACOK to plan was to bring her back to Pentos to marry Aegon for the same reason.

[7V3N]

snip

It is late in the series. Dance is roughly 70% into the story, assuming 7 books will be the final amount and the page-per-book amount stays near the same. We have eye witnesses of Aegon's (real or fake) dead body. Bloodraven had a personality and reputation in the Dunk & Egg novellas which fits into what he has become. We have nothing about pre- Young Griff "Aegon" except that he had Targ-silver hair (I am not sure if his eye color was ever mentioned before).

So those points of others' are perfectly reasonable. The fact is, there are hints that Aegon is fake and possibly a Blackfyre. While we are just told that he is Rhaegar's child, it is by people who we have reasons not to trust at face value and the only other evidence are his eyes, age, and hair. The rest is too ambiguous to push towards Blackfyre or Targaryen. GRRM is an expert at giving us things to debate, so I am sure he gave us only this amount of information intentionally. There is no correct answer at this point.

[EvilClosetMonkey]

That's the only thing that puzzles me, the continued support of Illyrio to Dany. I suppose the original intention was for "Aegon" to save Westeros after Viserys/Dany invaded that country with hordes of Dothraki, but he did spend a lot of money on Dany and keeps doing so even he has a plan A (Aegon).

Dragons. Dragons are a gamechanger.

[What Is Dead Already Died]

Just re-read Dany's first chapter in GoT, Illyrio is talks about the Lord of Light, its not 100% clear between the couple lines that he mentions it if he is a true believer or not. Is it possible that he's supporting Aegon who is legit because he believes in the PTWP?

Sorry if i missed this earlier.

[Dr. Pepper]

I have one question, and I'm not sure it has been answered. I've tried to keep up with most of the thread but I'm not sure if I missed something. If Illyrio/Varys are true Targ loyalists and know that the true Aegon exists, why wouldn't they hook him up with Viserys/Dany when they could have? Obviously Dany and Viserys were staying with Illyrio for a little bit, and Illyrio seems to have always kept up with where Young Griff was, so why not make sure they're together?

The only explanation seems to be that he wanted Viserys/Dany to attack Westeros with the Dothraki, turn Westeros against them, and then produce Young Griff/Aegon to be the savior? Why else keep the siblings separated?

I do not believe Aegon is son of Rhaegar, but I can answer why Illyrio would keep Viserys and Dany separated, regardless of who Aegon really is.

Viserys and Dany were well known. Their whereabouts were known and documented. Their actions were known and documented. This is how people in Westeros and the Free Cities know why Viserys came to be called the Beggar King. Viserys was also known to be going around the Free Cities stating that he was going to buy an army to take the throne back from the Usurper and his dogs. Because Viserys and Dany lived in a spotlight of sorts, it would not have been productive for Illyrio to introduce Aegon to them. If the alleged child of the wildly popular crown prince shows up, those imaginary hired knives Viserys was always going on about would become a reality. It wouldn't matter if Aegon was son of Rhaegar or son of a whore. Just the idea that he might exist would make it dangerous for Robert to allow him to live. If Aegon were introduced to Viserys and Dany, he'd become one of the most hunted people in the world. You'd have people showing up at the Red Keep with silver-haired heads much the same way you saw people bringing dwarf heads to Cersei.

I think this makes it obvious why Aegon, son of whomever, is not introduced to Viserys and Dany. This neither proves or disproves any of the theories on who Aegon might be. What does go towards proving that Aegon is not the son of Rhaegar is that for nearly 8 years, Illyrio did nothing to provide support for Aegon's only heirs. They were left to wander the Free Cities seeking out shelter and food without even the educational assistance of any sort of scholar. Illyrio only came into contact with them when Dany was flowered and eligible to be married. His scheme to sell Dany to the Dothraki and hope that they invade looks very much like he intended to use Viserys and Dany as pawns to make Aegon Whomever swoop in and be the hero.