Aegon is Legitimate: It's Obvious, Right? (Long OP)

[Lummel]

Daenerys and Viserys lived for years in Braavos! Doran Martell managed to contact them - is his intelligence organisation superior to Varys'? Illyrio expected Daenerys to die on the Dothraki Sea, it says so in ADWD, that's why I mention it.

Look when it comes down to it, it is a question of faith if you believe that this Aegon is the son of Rhaegar and a question of doubt if you don't. There isn't, so far, direct evidence either way. It's all circumstantial.

The problem with a Varys and Illyrio as Targaryen loyalists argument is that it doesn't make sense in the light of their activities.

Why not save Ella and Rhaenyes?

Why not establish a court in exile?

Why not reach out to Targaryen loyalists and build a base of supporters ready to support a bid for the crown - chief among whom would be the Prince of Dorne

Why work instead with not just any mercenary company but with the Golden Company which is full of people who claim lordly titles and lands in westeros and therefore is going to alienate potential supporters in westeos (see The Sworn Sword and The Mystery Knight to get an idea of the scale of this).

Why not keep Daenerys to marry Aegon or Viserys rather than marrying her to a Dothraki horse lord and expecting her to die on the dothraki sea?

Why want a dothraki alliance - westeros regards them as barbarians - their support won't win friends and influence in Westeros even if you had a fleet to ship them over.

Why keep Aegon a secret rather than as a beacon of hope for targaryen loyalists?

Why is that given that an Aegon escape must have involved a ship, it's crew, a wet nurse, servant(s), guard(s), getting away during the sack that there isn't a whisper of his survival?

No chain of custody - the child just appears with Jon Connington at approximately age five.

Why send Barristan the Bold, last survivor of Aerys' Kingguard to Daenerys rather than keeping him with their king candidate? Barristan's presence would be the best stamp of legitmacy imaginable, so why keep them apart?

Why the total lack of interest in Viserys and Daenerys until very late in the day - if these are the closest surviving kin of Aegon it makes no sense.

The whole thing stinks like a three day dead fish in my opinion. TWOW will be interesting indeed.

[Bravely Done]

He doesn't. He's wondering what Strickland knows, because Myles Toyne, who made the plans with Illyrio and Varys, is dead. And only those three were in on the planning, as Jon Connington tells us in the passage I quoted.

So let me get this straight. Myles Toyne, Illyrio, and Varys all come up with a plan, and JC raises the boy for 12 years. Yet somehow he wasn't privy to plan? Meaning that nobody in the GC tent(since Strickland is oblivious as well, as you stated above) knows the plan upon Aegon and JC's arrival? That doens't make sense.

[the Scorpion Knight]

ADwD somewhat hinted that the Blackfyre thing within the Golden Company ended with Bittersteel (which in turn suggests that most Blackfyre Rebellions happened while Bittersteel was still alive, probably during the reign of Aerys I and the perhaps the first years of Maekar's reign).

The Golden Company is a group of sellswords. You rise and fall within its ranks due to your prowess as warrior and commander. ADwD strongly indicated that pretty much no one particularly cares about 'the Blackfyre cause', or something like that.

Maelys the Monstrous rose to the position of captain-general because he was the most fearsome warrior of his generation (even stronger/bigger than the Mountain!), not because he was a Blackfyre.

We have also to keep in mind that King Aegon V Targaryen most likely tried to unite the houses of Targaryen and Blackfyre. Remember Selmy's weird memory of the troubled reign of Aegon the Unlikely, and the fact that somehow the marriages of his three sons for love made enemies out of (potential) friends. He cannot refer to Westerosi nobility here, since no Lord of the Seven Kingdoms could have dared to be pissed about a Targaryen prince rejecting his daughter, since he could never have expected the king to marry his children to his subjects. And even if he was - there were no real enemies to the Targaryen rule among the Westerosi nobility at this point.

not to mention that neither Barristan nor JonC use NO bad word against Maelys

[Victor227]

I kind of hope Aegon is real, mostly because it would be insanely ironic if Bittersteel's final legacy would be to seat a Red Dragon on the throne. I mean, his skull would explode from the sheer irony-overload of it.

Really though, everything seems to be shaping up for the fourth Blackfyre Rebellion. I mean, they're due. There's been a Blackfyre trying to take the throne pretty much every generation since Redgrass Field, and Aegon is absolutely surrounded by the legacy of it. There's lots of little things. Illyrio's affections, the 'male' Blackfyre line's end, Gregor Clegane's brutally making a switch-story twice as viable, the symbolism of the Golden Company finally fulfilling its true purpose, JC not being privy to the plan for years after its inception... It's really pounded in by lots of theory in spite of the lack of hard evidence either way.

My preferred outcome would be if Dany was the one to discover the truth and 'slay the lie' behind Aegon, and then reconcile the Targaryens and Blackfyres once and for all through the throne. It seems like a final and fitting end for that whole tragic saga. But then, I'd just been reading Dunk and Egg, so it might be a bit fresher to me (also, Duck and Aeg?) Bit of a parallel there as well, with a future king living in disguise while learning of the world from a more common perspective.

One thing though that I don't understand is why Aegon would be considered a 'Mummer's Dragon' if he's a Blackfyre. Even if he's not a Targ, the Blackfyres were dragons too. Even Bloodraven was willing to outright say it.

[OnionAhaiReborn]

So let me get this straight. Myles Toyne, Illyrio, and Varys all come up with a plan, and JC raises the boy for 12 years. Yet somehow he wasn't privy to plan? Meaning that nobody in the GC tent(since Strickland is oblivious as well, as you stated above) knows the plan upon Aegon and JC's arrival? That doens't make sense.

First, this isn't a question of what I'm saying, but a direct quote from the text. Second, neither I nor the text stated that Strickland is oblivious, but asked the question of what Strickland knows- given that the plans were made by Varys, Illyrio, and Strickland's predecessor, who is now dead. JC is wondering what Strickland knows- what information did Toyne pass to Strickland?- not saying he knows nothing. Finally, Connington makes it very clear that he was not privy to all the plans Varys, Illyrio, and Toyne made- but obviously this doesn't say, nor have I claimed, he knows nothing, he very clearly believes "Aegon" to be Aegon Targaryen- but there was a great deal of planning involved that he was not involved in, as he makes clear. If that doesn't make sense, your dispute is with the text and not with me.

[Winter's Knight]

A mummer's dragon is a cloth dragon used in plays for the hero to fight and vanquish. I think that Aegon has now arrived in Westoros to stir up even more strife which would make him rather unpopular what with winter being on the way. Then Dany shows, defeats him and unifies Westoros-Aegon thus becomes a prop villain to make Dany look better.

It could be the other way around too-with Dany burning Westoros and Aegon defeating her, thus making him the hero.

[vleeter]

Aegon is fake because GRRM announced pre DwD that a new character would be a fake prince. As far as I'm concerned, yhat setLes it, unless anyone knows of a better fake prince than Young Griff... Why does everyone forget this fact? Also, when JonCon arrives at the Goldenden Company he goes in about to announce the boy but "they know". They know he's a Blackfyre, not Aegon.

[Bravely Done]

But no one has hatched dragons in a very long time.

So? Dragon eggs are amongst the most valuable possessions in the world, petrified or not. He could have done a great many things with those eggs, for gains beyond that of what Danny could give him, yet he decided to gift them to her.

I think this is a very weak point in your argument. There is a world of difference between dragons and dragon-eggs. Dragon eggs are basically paper-weights. They have sentimental value but their not useful.

Depends on what you consider useful. You could buy an army with those eggs, a fleet, whatever.

Dany got those dragons to hatch, which is something that no one had done successfully for a very, very long time. Anyone who tried hatching dragons was killed in the attempt. It doesn't matter if she found those eggs in a toilet-- without her unique event that hatched the dragons, they would be worthless stones. No one would have foreseen those eggs hatching into dragons.

Except she didn't find them in a toilet, they were a gift from Illyrio.

If you're hoping for some chance that they might play a role in something that could significantly improve the odds of Aegon taking the throne, I think six months in your manse is well worth it. Illyrio benefitted personally from that exchange, let's not forget-- it staves off Dothraki invasion of Pentos to appease the horselords thusly, and he also received a good many riches from this trade.

The Dothraki never attack the free cities, from what I gathered in book 1. Instead, they collect gifts and ride on.

I'm still waiting for proof of these "benefits" and "riches" Illyrio received? Reading through the chapter again and I don't see it. I very much doubt Viserys would have walked away with nothing, which was the case.

Well, simultaneously to Drogo's death is Dany's hatching pyre. One might make the argument that we need to isolate the variables here to determine whether the dragons or Drogo's death caused their changes of heart. Given the fact that he repeatedly makes reference to her as the "dragon queen," becomes quite enthusiastic on the subject of dragons, and Tyrion is later asked to write down everything he knows on the subject of dragons, I think it's reasonable to assume that the dragons are the pertinent variable here.

Doesn't seem to concerned with Dragons, too me. Gave away his dragon eggs for nothing, doens't chase after Danny nor her Dragons, but instead sends her assiatance(ships, Selmy, Belwas), etc. He pretty much sits back and funds the whole operation.

I see very little reason why I'm supposed to believe he's more than what he's shown through 5 books.

[Dr. Pepper]

Aegon is fake because GRRM announced pre DwD that a new character would be a fake prince. As far as I'm concerned, yhat setLes it, unless anyone knows of a better fake prince than Young Griff... Why does everyone forget this fact? Also, when JonCon arrives at the Goldenden Company he goes in about to announce the boy but "they know". They know he's a Blackfyre, not Aegon.

I have no doubt that Aegon is not the son of Rhaegar, but do you actually have a quote or a link to back up this claim?

[Bravely Done]

Aegon is fake because GRRM announced pre DwD that a new character would be a fake prince. As far as I'm concerned, yhat setLes it, unless anyone knows of a better fake prince than Young Griff... Why does everyone forget this fact? Also, when JonCon arrives at the Goldenden Company he goes in about to announce the boy but "they know". They know he's a Blackfyre, not Aegon.

I very much doubt Martin exposed his novels greatest secret prior to the release of the novel. The minute Aegon was revealed it would have been all too obvious that he was a hoax.

And your last setence is a patently false. They knew he was Aegon, and that he and JC were on there way. Something Strickland revealed to the company because they'd grown restless from their wait(for Danny).

[mcb]

Ever since R+L=J, people have been trying to make square pegs fit into round holes. They seem to discount overwhelming evidence in favor of what is actually in the text, and decide that everything is a ruse through pure speculation, then try and pass it off as fact. Aegon being fake is one of the very speculative theories that has gained traction, and is almost now considered fact by most on this board.

A false analogy. Aegon being dead is a version of history believed to be true by every single character in the series. Aegon being alive is a version of history claimed to be true by Varys in ADWD. In the books, way more people claimed that Joffrey was Robert's true son, than that Young Griff was Aegon Targaryen.

[Quentyn the Blazed]

Bittersteel swore a vow to put a Blackfyre on the throne. His vow and his dying wish are two different things - his dying wish was for his skull to be dipped in gold and carried forth in battle for when they went home to Westeros. I don't remember anything about it being put in the throneroom, but it is neither here nor there.

It doesn't matter how many sellswords have survived from 40 years ago. The point is what the origins and quite recent history of the Golden Company tells us, and whether Illyrio Mopatis' claims that they want to fight for the Targaryens now overrides all that.

There's no evidence whatsoever the Golden Company just wants to "win the throne". I'm not sure from where in the text you're getting that. Look:-

AFFC:-

ADWD:-

"and whether Illyrio Mopatis' claims that they want to fight for the Targaryens now overrides all that." - Who cares about Illyrio's claims? JC was the number 2 guy in GC, the favorite for taking over. A Targ loyalist in charge of the GC? The horror! Thats all the evidence needed for how the GC operates these days - they want to go home, they dont care about the color of the dragon.

The quotes you provided only help my claim. They were united under Bittersteel's goals..but "Its home they want." They dont care the color of the dragon that gets them there. And Arianne thinks they broke their contract to support Quentyn's claim to Dorne. How does Blackfyre get involved in that?

And the GC has been binding the exiles ever since, from every rebellion. The Blackfyre loyalists are now the minority. Deal with it.

And a theory that claims that Varys and Illyrio are targargen loyalists despite their treatment of Daenerys and Viserys makes sense?

Yes, because they always had Aegon Targaryen in mind when thinking about Viserys and Daenery's shitty life. V and D are the public face of the Targ remnants. Varys needs to keep Robert aprised of their movements to keep his job. Once they became useful - get a dothraki army - Illyrio helps them out.

And JC is the biggest targ loyalist there is and he never had a problem with leaving Viserys and Daenerys in the dark and on the street...because Aegon is what matters

[Bravely Done]

First, this isn't a question of what I'm saying, but a direct quote from the text. Second, neither I nor the text stated that Strickland is oblivious, but asked the question of what Strickland knows- given that the plans were made by Varys, Illyrio, and Strickland's predecessor, who is now dead. JC is wondering what Strickland knows- what information did Toyne pass to Strickland?- not saying he knows nothing. Finally, Connington makes it very clear that he was not privy to all the plans Varys, Illyrio, and Toyne made- but obviously this doesn't say, nor have I claimed, he knows nothing, he very clearly believes "Aegon" to be Aegon Targaryen- but there was a great deal of planning involved that he was not involved in, as he makes clear. If that doesn't make sense, your dispute is with the text and not with me.

Just realized the problem. You left out parts of the text in your post, hence the misunderstanding. Purposeful, no?

ADWD. pg 313

Griff: "Thank you, but no", said Griff. "We will drink water."

Strickland: "As you prefer." The captain-general smiled up at the prince at the prince. "And this must be your son?"

Griff: "Does he know?" Griff wondered. How much did Myles tell him? The plans that he and Illyrio had made with Blackheart had been known to them alone. The rest of the company had been left ignorant. What they did not know they could not let slip.

This certainly doesn't imply that Strickland was privy to information on the matter that JC wasn't, rather the contrary is true. Because of the secrecy of the original pact, which Strickland wasn't a part of, he was questioning how much Strickland knew based on the latters question of whether or not Aegon were his son.

[ishmael]

I'm going to point out where your argument falls apart:-

A. Black or Red = a Targaryen is a Targaryen is a Targaryen, as far as Illyrio is concerned. They make no distinction. In other words, the support for the Targaryens cited by you above just lost all ability to lend credence to the idea that "Aegon" must be a Red dragon.

B. the male line of House Blackfyre. Not the end of House Blackfyre, but the male line thereof. GRRM does not write such things for no reason. This is an important statement.

No, its not. Read what Illyrio said, carefully. Male line. Not whole House. If you don't think this is important, ask Harry the Heir of the Vale.

The big issue with the whole Blackfyre theory is that once the male line dies out, the house is dead. The female Blackfyres pass on the bloodline, but the children are no longer identified as Blackfyres. The reality is: there are no more Blackfyres. There are people who are descendants of the Blackfyres, but they are not identified as Blackfyres themselves. House Blackfyre is dead and it died with the last male Blackfyre.

I don't really understand your point with Harry the Heir. He is not an Arryn. He is the oldest male relative to Robin Arryn, and if something should happen to Sweet Robin, he will become Lord of the Eyrie, but he still would not be an Arryn or recognized as one. He would still be a Hardyng. House Arryn dies with Robert Arryn. Just has House Blackfyre died with Maelys.

[Lykos]

A mummer's dragon is a cloth dragon used in plays for the hero to fight and vanquish. I think that Aegon has now arrived in Westoros to stir up even more strife which would make him rather unpopular what with winter being on the way. Then Dany shows, defeats him and unifies Westoros-Aegon thus becomes a prop villain to make Dany look better.

It could be the other way around too-with Dany burning Westoros and Aegon defeating her, thus making him the hero.

It was planned the yet another way around.

“The plan was to reveal Prince Aegon only when we reached Queen Daenerys,” Lemore was saying.

“That was when we believed the girl was coming west. Our dragon queen has burned that plan to ash, and thanks to that fat fool in Pentos, we have grasped the she-dragon by the tail and burned our fingers to the bone.”

“Illyrio could not have been expected to know that the girl would choose to remain at Slaver’s Bay.”

“No more than he knew that the Beggar King would die young, or that Khal Drogo would follow him into the grave. Very little of what the fat man has anticipated has come to pass.” Griff slapped the hilt of his long-sword with a gloved hand. “I have danced to the fat man’s pipes for years, Lemore. What has it availed us? The prince is a man grown. His time is—”

Dance, The Lost Lord.

[butterbumps!]

So? Dragon eggs are amongst the most valuable possessions in the world, petrified or not. He could have done a great many things with those eggs, for gains beyond that of what Danny could give him, yet he decided to gift them to her.

Depends on what you consider useful. You could buy an army with those eggs, a fleet, whatever.

Except she didn't find them in a toilet, they were a gift from Illyrio.

Why do you think Illyrio gave her the eggs? I think that they were meant to be a gesture of support for her, as they symbolize her lineage. They are props that make her look even more the Targ princess that she is advertised to Drogo to enhance her authenticity. Secondly, I believe that the eggs may have been intended to provide money for a fleet in the event that Drogo invades Westeros. I think that's likely what their intended use was. Perhaps he thought that either she or Viserys might die in the attempt to raise dragons- Viserys was certainly a good candidate to try, and I believe Ilyrio wanted Viserys out of the way (hence why he suggested that Viserys remained at his Manse until the Dothraki were ready to sail).

What I was specifically trying to counter was your assertion that Illyrio gave her "dragons." Giving someone eggs is no where close to giving someone dragons. You were suggesting that those dragons were Illyrio's doing, implying that there was a purposeful chain of events in place, and I was trying to say that the dragons were not part of Illyrio's plans. Once Dany raised dragons, his whole view of this changed. Dany could be more useful to him now than a simple Dothraki invasion farce.

The Dothraki never attack the free cities, from what I gathered in book 1. Instead, they collect gifts and ride on.

I'm still waiting for proof of these "benefits" and "riches" Illyrio received? Reading through the chapter again and I don't see it. I very much doubt Viserys would have walked away with nothing, which was the case.

The Dothraki do not attack the free cities, because the free cities bribe them by trading with them preemptively. It prevents them from raiding the cities. Regarding Illyrio's personal fee for horse-trading Dany:

[The eggs] were a truly magnificent gift, though she knew that Illyrio could afford to be so lavish. He had collected a fortune in horses and slaves for his part in selling her to Khal Drogo.

I see very little reason why I'm supposed to believe he's more than what he's shown through 5 books.

But in 4 out of those 5 books, Aegon was said to be a splatter on the wall. I don't know what you mean.

(removed a quote I didn't use)

[vleeter]

I very much doubt Martin exposed his novels greatest secret prior to the release of the novel. The minute Aegon was revealed it would have been all too obvious that he was a hoax.

And your last setence is a patently false. They knew he was Aegon, and that he and JC were on there way. Something Strickland revealed to the company because they'd grown restless from their wait(for Danny).

it want the novel's greatest secret lol, he said it in an interview before it came out. It was big news then necause we didn't know anything else about the book. Looks like everyone DID forget about it.

and yeah Strickland revealed that they'd be backing a fake, not the real deal in Dany. They just wanted to go home, homie.

[Lord Varys]

Who among the Golden Company knew what is a complete mess:

1. Duck says that Strickland sent him to Griff when he learned that he needed a tutor for his son. But didn't the Golden Company believe that Jon Connington was dead?

2. The lesser officers seem to have a rather deep insight into the fat man plans, when Illyrio's former ideas are discussed in the first Connington chapter. How do they know? Did Strickland tell down, and if so, how did he know?

3. If Strickland knew anything, who told him and what? Connington seemed to believe that all the members of the Golden Company besides Blackheart thought him dead. Blackheart on his dead bed? Illyrio?

[Bravely Done]

Why do you think Illyrio gave her the eggs?

Honestly? Because Martin would eventually have them hatch. Or, he realized whom she was, her power and heritage, and believed the most appropriate place for Dragons eggs are beside a Dragon.

I think that they were meant to be a gesture of support for her, as they symbolize her lineage.

Yes, support they were, and are, and will be.

They are props that make her look even more the Targ princess that she is advertised to Drogo to enhance her authenticity.

She was given the eggs on her wedding day, after Drogo agreed to the match.

Secondly, I believe that the eggs may have been intended to provide money for a fleet in the event that Drogo invades Westeros.

Your grapsed this from your imigination.

I think that's likely what their intended use was.

I think it likely that you're guessing.

What I was specifically trying to counter was your assertion that Illyrio gave her "dragons." Giving someone eggs is no where close to giving someone dragons. You were suggesting that those dragons were Illyrio's doing, implying that there was a purposeful chain of events in place, and I was trying to say that the dragons were not part of Illyrio's plans. Once Dany raised dragons, his whole view of this changed. Dany could be more useful to him now than a simple Dothraki invasion farce.

Well, that's what happened. She didn't receive them in a Volcano, or through God, or any other herosim. Her fearsome dragons hatched from the ageless eggs given to her by Illyrio Mopatis. Coincidence? Perhaps. But it seems to me that Varys and Illyrio oft have their hands in the dance of Dragons.

The Dothraki do not attack the free cities, because the free cities bribe them by trading with them preemptively. It prevents them from raiding the cities. Regarding Illyrio's personal fee for horse-trading Dany:

Something else you grasped out of thin air. The last part, that is.

But in 4 out of those 5 books, Aegon was said to be a splatter on the wall. I don't know what you mean.

And the boy we thought was Aegon, remains a splatter. That doesn't mean Aegon is a farce though.

[Stark@heart]

Actually, on rethinking it, there were no less than four baby switches:

1. Varys switches Aegon with a pretender. Gives Aegon to Illyrio.

2. Illyrio switches Aegon with "Aegon". Throws Aegon into the sea.

Aegon floats to Westeros (why not?), where he is found by Wylla, who is nursing Jon and Ashara Dayne's child. Aegon is dying, of course.

3. Wylla accidentally switches Aegon and Ashara Dayne's child. Aegon dies and Ashara kills herself in misplaced grief.

4. Wylla switches Ashara Dayne's child with Jon to hide her mistake. Ned takes Ashara Dayne's child back to Winterfell.

The real Jon is shipped off to a lesser branch of Dayne to be fostered. He is renamed Gerold.

Dun dun dun.

I've always had a feeling about Darkstar. From what little we saw of him, he seems to a douche. I wrote him off as / someone was needed to try and off Myrcella / so he shows up, does his thing and is gone. But that doesn't really fit in with GRRMs style so I'm thinking he'll turn up again. Maybe to finish the job he started or maybe to be revealed as something or someone else.

He has dark purple eyes like Rhaegar, so he's got to have more Targ blood than Quenten surely and Dorean considers him the most dangerous man in Dorne. I wonder why?