What is the real reason for the decline of the wall and the NWs?

[slayer420]

I think this needs its own tread separate from the Why is the North Loyalty to the Starks? tread.

Was it Neds fault?

The targ taking over Westros?

Why do people think that the North have far less people at the wall than the other kingdoms?

I think this comes from when Jon takes his vows and he is the only Northman to take it. He was the only one in ten that took his vow with him. I don't think this is reliable and I think this slants the view of how many northmen are at the wall. We have to remember that not all Northmen follow old gods. White harbor I bet has at least a 50/50 old god to the seven population. No facts to back this up, but with the Lords there following the seven it have to have some impact.

IMO I bet there are more northmen than any other kingdom. I bet it is as much as 50 % northmen. not sure on this but this just seems right. The last two LC have been from the north, also two of three lesser offices first ranger(stark) and first steward(marsh) are from the north. I think this gives a little more info, because I could see men not wanting to follow people from other areas. also allot of the named characters are knights that were named come from the lower kingdoms. The north have very few knights so I think this leads to us thinking that there are more southrons that there are, because Knights would be put in positions of respect.

We have to remember that the north should only be supplying 1/7 of the men for the wall. Maybe even less if we knew what the true population of all the kingdoms because I don’t think the north has 1/7 of the population of the wall.

we know that in the last 300 years the watch has went from 10 thousand men to less than a thousand. Why?

I think if you were able to look at the numbers of were they were from that the numbers of northmen have not declined that much and the rest of the kingdoms have numbers have. We see this in the shields in the shield hall. We know that very few Northmen are Knights so I think this Martins way of telling us this.

I really think Ned did all he could for the NW and that the other kingdoms and the Kings Targ and king Robert both let the NW down. Seems to me that the Starks are the only major house to actually have family members join. The only other family I can think of is the one that built harranhall before the targs.

So why has a organization that has lasted for 8000 years been allowed to fall apart so fast in the last 300 years? any Ideas.

[David Selig]

We've seen info about the places of origin of plenty of NW brothers. IIRC only 5 of those are from the North (not counting wildlings). Most likely I am forgetting a few Northerners, but I am sure among those who we know where there are from, at least 80% are Southerners. Jon's buddies from his recruit group, Dennis Mallister, Cotter Pyke, Maester Aemon, Satin, Donal Noye, Alliser Thorne, Walmar Royce, Thoren Smallwood, Dolorous Edd, Chett, Donnell Hill, Alan of Rosby, etc - all southerners.

Sure, among the leaders the percentage is much higher, but that's not surprising since it's much more likely that Northern nobles would join the Watch than Southern ones, and the Stark influence help those with their blood rise high.

[E-Ro]

I was also wondering why they seem to haved declined after the conquest, perhaps the taxes sent to kl take away from those sent to the nw?

[slayer420]

But LC is elected by vote so if the nights watch is 80% from the south, then there should be no Northmen in leadership. Not seeing how the starks could help them get elected.

[Victor227]

But LC is elected by vote so if the nights watch is 80% from the south, then there should be no Northmen in leadership. Not seeing how the starks could help them get elected.

Southerners voted for Jon Snow. It's not like the Watch votes along the lines of origin. Every Kingdom above and below the Neck has some animosity with every other kingdom. They're not going to team up just because they're not northerners. That aside, the most recent Lord Commanders have been Northerners, but we know say, Black Harren's brother wasn't.

I'd say that the reason for the Night's Watch's decline is simply that its escaped relevance. There haven't been any major Wildling invasions, let alone the Others, in a long time. People have forgotten why the Wall's there, and what lies beyond it. In King's Landing, every time the Night's Watch is brought up, it's either with derision, or the desire to influence its politics for some kind of gain that's never actually pointed out (seriously, why did Tywin give half a damn about Janos Slynt and the Watch?). The only time the Watch comes into play in the greater power scheme is when Stannis shows up, and that's because suddenly they're seen as a potential power-base for him.

The Night's Watch became less an honorable service, and more an honorable dumping ground for third sons, retiring lords, unwanted heirs, guys Yoren hoodwinked with tales of women being unable to resist men in uniform, and heaps of criminals Lords were feeling too lazy to execute that day. The Northerners are the only ones that hold that seem to hold the service in some respect.

[Fire Eater]

It was Aegon's Conquest. The constant warfare between the Seven Kingdoms was replaced with the king's peace. The losers of warfare were allowed to take the black, and this supplied the Night's Watch with not just a supply of blacksmiths, carpenters, builders etc. but also lords and knights. The NW then became filled with criminals, with one percent being knights rather than ten percent. As the NW became more of an escape for criminals, the NW reputation became more soiled, making it less attractive for men of high birth to join.

The beginning of the decline of the NW is seen when Queen Alysanne goes to see the Wall, and finds the Nightfort undermanned. She extends the Gift, and pawns her jewels to build two smaller, more manageable castles next to it.

[mcb]

The Night's Watch defends the realm against grumkins and snarks, or a legendary threat that no one believes anymore. It's not surprising that now it's a mere shadow of its former self, rather it's very surprising that as late as Aegon's Conquest it had ten thousand swords.

[Prince of the Green]

It was Aegon's Conquest. The constant warfare between the Seven Kingdoms was replaced with the king's peace. The losers of warfare were allowed to take the black, and this supplied the Night's Watch with not just a supply of blacksmiths, carpenters, builders etc. but also lords and knights. The NW then became filled with criminals, with one percent being knights rather than ten percent. As the NW became more of an escape for criminals, the NW reputation became more soiled, making it less attractive for men of high birth to join.

The beginning of the decline of the NW is seen when Queen Alysanne goes to see the Wall, and finds Castle Black undermanned. She extends the Gift, and pawns her jewels to build two smaller, more manageable castles next to it.

I think you are on the right track with your line of thinking, but you forgot the most important part of that royal visit: Queen Alysanne visited the Wall and offered her jewels as the means to replace The Nightfort with Deep Lake.

That's my guess as to why the Night's Watch has been dwindling in size; the Nightfort was the first castle along the wall and, as such, probably has some influential role in the organization as a whole.

[Darth Rivers]

The north should actually supply more than 1/7 of the NW, because the North has more than 1/7 of the kingdoms' population. I'd estimate that only the Reach and the Westerlands have more population than the North, with about 20 million and 10-15 respectively, to the North's 5-15(or even more). The Riverlands and the Vale have somewhat less, while Dorne, the Stormlands and the Iron Islands have a lot less. Overall, I'd say it's more like 1/6-1/5. Or close to 1/4 at the very best. But certainly not less than 1/6.

[Lady of Long Lake]

I wonder if the previous wars (before AGOT) reduced the population so much that there weren't many families with several sons?

The Starks seem to be an anomaly in the North with their large brood. So many other Northern families have 1 son at this current time

( Reed, Bolton, Glover, Manderly and Karstark ) or no sons ( Umber, Mormont, Dustin, Flint, Hornwood).

Perhaps Robert's Rebellion, the Nine penny king war and Greyjoy rebellion took their toll in body counts. We know the War of the 5 Kings certainly did.

[Prince of the Green]

The north should actually supply more than 1/7 of the NW, because the North has more than 1/7 of the kingdoms' population. I'd estimate that only the Reach and the Westerlands have more population than the North, with about 20 million and 10-15 respectively, to the North's 5-15(or even more). The Riverlands and the Vale have somewhat less, while Dorne, the Stormlands and the Iron Islands have a lot less. Overall, I'd say it's more like 1/6-1/5. Or close to 1/4 at the very best. But certainly not less than 1/6.

I'd be surprised if the continent as a whole had a million people in it. I'd say the North has somewhere in the realm of 150,000 to 200,000 people, and that is at the start of AGOT, and still probably pushing it.

[Sevumar]

It was Aegon's Conquest. The constant warfare between the Seven Kingdoms was replaced with the king's peace. The losers of warfare were allowed to take the black, and this supplied the Night's Watch with not just a supply of blacksmiths, carpenters, builders etc. but also lords and knights. The NW then became filled with criminals, with one percent being knights rather than ten percent. As the NW became more of an escape for criminals, the NW reputation became more soiled, making it less attractive for men of high birth to join.

I think the conquest had an effect, but not because it produced more "peace" than existed before. In fact, I doubt that the realm is any more peaceful under the Targaryens than as independent kingdoms. I also believe that the decline of the Night's Watch took place over a much longer period of time than just the 300 years of Targaryen rule.

I want to suggest one thing resulting from the conquest that may have played a role in the reduction of manpower to the Night's Watch: a more glamorous institution invented by the Targs. The key piece of information here is the decline in the number of knights joining the Watch. Once Aegon sweeps into power with his dragons, everyone is eager to curry favor with him. His creation of the Kingsguard creates an opportunity for the greatest knights of the realm to aspire to a different kind of noble service than the Night's Watch. In this way, it may have displaced the Watch as the most coveted post in the kingdom for someone without a seat or title of his own. Not only did you not have to live at the cold, forgotten extremity of the kingdom, but your martial prowess and glamor were in plain view for all to see at court, on the battlefield, and at tournaments.

[Darth Rivers]

Five kings it is. The others happened a long time ago. You have to take into account the varied reasons for deaths, though.

Also, don't start using army sizes as indicators of population. Armies in the late medieval period, which ASOIAF surprisingly faithfully represents, were built of the retainers of feudal lords, rather than levies of all men. The numbers of men are dependent on the size of a lord's retinue rather than the number of subjects he has. Most of these men are paid, or somehow favored by the lord (land, for example), although conscription of peasants to bolster the ranks of one's retinue was not unheard of. Thus if the Umbers bring 400 men by scrapping the barrel, it doesn't mean they barely rule over 400 households. It means that their own vassals and household troops have been reduced in number, and they're sending the remainder of their retinue. "Green boys and old men" is a slightly exaggerated truth - they're the retainers who were for one reason or another deemed unfit for the first campaign. So Umbers might well rule over many thousands, which they do, most of their subjects aren't soldiers.

Some lords, like Manderly, can further bolster their forces with the militia of a town, or in his case, city - a military force provisioned by the authorities of the city for both its own defense and fulfilling feudal obligation to its lord. But that's about the extent of militarization in this feudal world.

[Darth Rivers]

I'd be surprised if the continent as a whole had a million people in it. I'd say the North has somewhere in the realm of 150,000 to 200,000 people, and that is at the start of AGOT, and still probably pushing it.

Nope. 250 thousand people is about the population of 12th century pagan Latvia, probably about 1/20 the size of the North. England had ~5 million inhabitants in the late medieval era. How on earth you'd get the population of Westeros, the size of 40 Englands, to only number 1 million people, is beyond any reason.

15 million for the North is still a small figure, considering its size (a dozen Englands replaced by just 3 of them). The Reach is very densely populated and about the size of France - which had about 25 million inhabitants. So there's at least 35 million right there. And we haven't even begun counting the others. Overall, 70-90 million doesn't sound far fetched.

[nothatso]

Are we sure that the NW had 10,000 men at the time of Aegon's landing? I was under the impression that number was how many men they had at their peak, but I don't recall any indication that they had that many 300 years prior to the books.

[Fire Eater]

I think the conquest had an effect, but not because it produced more "peace" than existed before. In fact, I doubt that the realm is any more peaceful under the Targaryens than as independent kingdoms. I also believe that the decline of the Night's Watch took place over a much longer period of time than just the 300 years of Targaryen rule.

I want to suggest one thing resulting from the conquest that may have played a role in the reduction of manpower to the Night's Watch: a more glamorous institution invented by the Targs. The key piece of information here is the decline in the number of knights joining the Watch. Once Aegon sweeps into power with his dragons, everyone is eager to curry favor with him. His creation of the Kingsguard creates an opportunity for the greatest knights of the realm to aspire to a different kind of noble service than the Night's Watch. In this way, it may have displaced the Watch as the most coveted post in the kingdom for someone without a seat or title of his own. Not only did you not have to live at the cold, forgotten extremity of the kingdom, but your martial prowess and glamor were in plain view for all to see at court, on the battlefield, and at tournaments.

But there are only seven positions in the Kingsguard, not everyone can join and the Night's Watch wasn't a coveted post in the first place, to display your martial prowess and glamor in plain view could simply be done on the battlefield and in tourneys.

[gougef]

Even though there is a lack man power as the current problem at a very bad time (which I think has been in declined for a long time, but has fell of drastically since the Targs show up), GRRM as been very careful to point out there has been problems at the wall since the beginning.

[Sevumar]

But there are only seven positions in the Kingsguard, not everyone can join and the Night's Watch wasn't a coveted post in the first place, to display your martial prowess and glamor in plain view could simply be done on the battlefield and in tourneys.

There are, but like any elite, the number of people pursuing those positions will always be far greater than the available slots. There's enough history suggesting that the Night's Watch was an honorable pursuit for younger sons or those without a place in the world that it would attract a meaningful number of knights if there was no competition. Curiously, we have no indication of whether tourneys were as big a deal before the unification of Westeros as they were after. If you feared for your safety in a neighboring kingdom, it would be a much bigger deal to travel there for a tourney than it would under the Targs.

[gougef]

Even though there is a lack man power as the current problem at a very bad time (which I think has been in declined for a long time, but has fell of drastically since the Targs show up), GRRM as been very careful to point out there has been problems at the wall since the beginning.

Edit: However, some of the early Targ seem very interested in the Wall,

[vleeter]

The reason people seem to think there are much less people in the north is because... there are much less people in the north. I can't cite it, but it's in one of the books. Why? Robert and Ned talk about it when the King comes to Winterfell. Something about it being cold up north... In the south it's hot and women get naked in the heat so more men settled down there. If you were to choose, which would it be?