The Red Wedding: Tywin's genius plan or cowardly way out? (spoilers)

[Castel]

Tywin cares about the smallfolk inasmuch as it benefits him to care about them. Likewise, when it suits his purpose to torture and kill them he does so.

But if he can win a war without inflicting losses on his men, their families and the smallfolk, he will do it every time--not becuase he is a humanitarian, but because he's a very practical man. Sometimes it's not practical to have everyone hate you and suffer from the losses of your war, if it can be avoided.

I was talking about the utilitariain morality of Tywin's decision; I was not suggesting that Tywin is a moral person.

Pretty much this. Tywin may be a monster, but him prospering has not been bad for the West. His goals also seemed to be aligned with theirs. By ending this war quickly for his own benefit, the Westerlanders would also benefit.

With those who love to celebrate villains or like to take the contrarian side calling it "genius". While those who prefer heroes or honor calling it a cowardly act

Or they could simply believe that logically it was a good move without them indulging some urge to be "different".

[Mulled Wino]

Clearly, this is right up Tywin's alley. He's one of the best at scheming and plotting. I don't want to debate whether it was cowardly or brilliant. It's a judgement call I think. With those who love to celebrate villains or like to take the contrarian side calling it "genius". While those who prefer heroes or honor calling it a cowardly act. I will say that in the warrior culture of Westeros it's a move that would be considered spineless and meek.

I dont get it...how is it not a good plan to remove an enemy with the blame in the short and medium term (at the gery least) to fall completely on someone else. Not just remove an enemy, but lock up one of the most strategic parts of Westeros before winter comes.

[The Fallen]

Tywin cares about the smallfolk inasmuch as it benefits him to care about them. Likewise, when it suits his purpose to torture and kill them he does so.

But if he can win a war without inflicting losses on his men, their families and the smallfolk, he will do it every time--not becuase he is a humanitarian, but because he's a very practical man. Sometimes it's not practical to have everyone hate you and suffer from the losses of your war, if it can be avoided.

I was talking about the utilitariain morality of Tywin's decision; I was not suggesting that Tywin is a moral person.

At best, I would give you that he might have had a utilitarian view of the Red Wedding as a way to avoid losses to his army and end the threat immediately. But even with a utilitarian view, I can't see Tywin worried about the smallfolk. But it's not a big point, so I won't get into a pissing contest and devote pages to arguing the point just for argument's sake.

[The Fallen]

I dont get it...how is it not a good plan to remove an enemy with the blame in the short and medium term (at the gery least) to fall completely on someone else. Not just remove an enemy, but lock up one of the most strategic parts of Westeros before winter comes.

Sorry missed this post earlier.

I didn't say it wasn't a good plan. It worked for Tywin. He was able to consolidate power through Joffrey and the Tyrell alliance while at the same time he weakened and possibly completely destroyed two Houses who opposed him (Stark and Tully). I just think in the long run it will probably be remembered as the "infamous" Red Wedding as opposed to the "brilliant" Red Wedding.

[peash]

Tywin's a utitlitarian guy, he doesn't, or at least likes to think he doesn't, let emotion, pride, or the opinions of others influence his decisions, so I doubt cowardice in the sense of crushing fear factored into Tywin's decision

Given what Tywin knew (Robb's twice the general he is, his army is battle-hardened and has the home field advantage in both the Riverlands and the North where the fighting would take place), and thought he knew (the lannister's hold the heir to winterfell, Tywin is going to live for another 10 years+, the northerners will submit if Robb is killed, the Targs are reduced to one girl and will stay in Essos, LF will keep the Vale loyal to the Lannisters, the Tyrells will keep their alliance), it was a genius move - it destroyed his last effective opponent, scattered his battlehardened army, and left the Riverlords with no choice but to submit, and as long as Tywin lived, noone was going to go on a Bolton and Frey killing spree.

And he achieved this without losing a single lannister man.

However, as they say, its the things that you "know" that are actually incorrect that will kill you. So with Targs beating down his door, the High Septon holding Cersei, Tyrion on the run, Tywin and Kevan both dead, the Tyrells a hairsbreadth from breaking the alliance (especially once they find out Cersei was behind Marg's imprisonment), and the North getting ready to remember the hell out of the Boltons and assumably the Freys and Lannisters, the Red Wedding is beginning to look like a terrible idea.

But thats only true because Tywin couldn't predict the future, particularly his own death. I find it hard to fault him for that.

[Mulled Wino]

Sorry missed this post earlier.

I didn't say it wasn't a good plan. It worked for Tywin. He was able to consolidate power through Joffrey and the Tyrell alliance while at the same time he weakened and possibly completely destroyed two Houses who opposed him (Stark and Tully). I just think in the long run it will probably be remembered as the "infamous" Red Wedding as opposed to the "brilliant" Red Wedding.

Gotcha.

One trend i disagree with in this thread is that there seems to be a feeling that we still need to wait and see what happens to the Lannisters. The implication being that if the Lannisters fall, it will mean the RW is a failure. I dont think this is true at all. There's too many factors at play here, to blame it on the RW. The RW didnt cause Varys to kill Kevean, the RW has zero to do with Cersei's desparate attempts to destroy all the gains her family makes, RW has nothing to do with how Tywin treats his son, and he had no way to know Cat was going to deliver him Jamie as a freebie.

[Ramsay Gimp]

Gotcha.

One trend i disagree with in this thread is that there seems to be a feeling that we still need to wait and see what happens to the Lannisters. The implication being that if the Lannisters fall, it will mean the RW is a failure. I dont think this is true at all. There's too many factors at play here, to blame it on the RW. The RW didnt cause Varys to kill Kevean, the RW has zero to do with Cersei's desparate attempts to destroy all the gains her family makes, RW has nothing to do with how Tywin treats his son, and he had no way to know Cat was going to deliver him Jamie as a freebie.

This. If anything, the Lannisters would be much worse off if Robb were still alive

[The Fallen]

Gotcha.

One trend i disagree with in this thread is that there seems to be a feeling that we still need to wait and see what happens to the Lannisters. The implication being that if the Lannisters fall, it will mean the RW is a failure. I dont think this is true at all. There's too many factors at play here, to blame it on the RW. The RW didnt cause Varys to kill Kevean, the RW has zero to do with Cersei's desparate attempts to destroy all the gains her family makes, RW has nothing to do with how Tywin treats his son, and he had no way to know Cat was going to deliver him Jamie as a freebie.

Oh, I'm hit! He he.

I agree with everything you've said. I was looking at it as a single event and how it will be viewed historically from the macho-warrior culture of Westeros in answer to the original post. Can you picture Tarly talking to Dickon about how "genius" Tywin's Red Wedding was? Or any other lord who emphasizes the warrior credo?

If you look at it from a larger point of view and want to analyze the ramifications, it stills goes down as being successful. While Tywin was alive he accomplished his goal of solidifying power through his grandson who's King and the second (some would argue first) most powerful family at the time, the Tyrells. Tywin being killed and the Frey and Bolton plot not going as smoothly as planned, in my opinion, can't be directly tied to the Red Wedding. Never mind Cersei's follies, Tyrion's exile and Kevan's murder.

[Swordsaint]

The Red Wedding was both brilliant and cowardly. I think it will undo all the men involved in the long term. There were too many witnesses, and on top of that their story was ridiculous even by Westeros standards.

[Scipio Africanus]

Tywin Lannister and "caring" in the same sentence is a contridiction. He cared only about one thing, his family status. He didn't care how any of his children felt. So why would he care about the smallfolk? In fact he probably hates smallfolk considering he unleashed the Mountain and his merry men on a raping and pillage spree.

What Tywin did can only be described as cowardly. In the short term everyone will be cowed by Tywin/Frey/Bolton brutality. But the truth will leak out (too many people know about it), and others will start to resist their rule, and probably revolt at the first sign of their weakness.

If people think they'd get away with it just because they're nobility, they're wrong. Charles I lost his head, the Swiss and Dutch revolted against their Habsburg overlords and the Americans rebelled against their king.

All Tywin ackomplished was a short term tactical victory but strategically he prolonged the conflict.

What Tywin SHOULD have done was reigning in Cercei and Joff sooner and NOT let Ned's head chopped off. Robb would've bent a knee faster then he could have said Hordor, and he would've have Jaime back (and Ned at the wall, removed as a powerbase). Plus he would've had a large say in who Sansa married.

[Lebron]

Anyone who doesn't think that the Red Wedding was a brilliant move (from Tywin's perspective) is probably letting their emotions get in the way. It was a great way to end the war at minimal cost. Not to mention that the Frey's took the brunt of the backlash from the event itself.

[BastardBorn]

It was a smart move for Tywin. This was by far the best way to deal with a difficult situation. I doubt his reputation will (or did) take much a hit. He was already known for being ruthless with his enemies, a reputation he always embraced. It was not his bread and salt, and he ostensibly had nothing to do with the plot. The future of House Lannister was Casterly Rock and The Iron Throne; the approval of the north and riverlands takes a back seat.

I probably would have done the same in his situation. Some people would never do this. The same people probably would have their head chopped off by King Joffery. Honor is preferable, but not worth dying for in and of itself (IMO).

It was extremely short sighted of the Freys. Their reputation took a severe hit, especially in the eyes of those they intend to rule. In the case of Frey, it would have been far more intelligent to insist the Lannisters and Tyrells share in losses as they defeat the north with swords. Not as tempting in the short term, but it would allow them to claim the moral high ground. Instead, they will be thought as underhanded cowards.

[Batman]

It was clever, but there was no way that he would not be implicated.

Tywin - "I had nothing to do with the Red Wedding and denounce Walder Frey for doing it! In a completely unrelated note I would like to bestow numerous honours and gifts to House Frey and House Bolton including Riverrun and Warden of the North. Nothing suss about that right Kev? Right?"

He may not give a shit, but the one thing he has forgotten is that the North remembers.

[talleyban]

Tywin Lannister and "caring" in the same sentence is a contridiction. He cared only about one thing, his family status.

These sentences contradict each other. Either he cares about nothing, or he cares about something.

What Tywin did can only be described as cowardly. In the short term everyone will be cowed by Tywin/Frey/Bolton brutality. But the truth will leak out (too many people know about it)

If Tywin knew the truth would eventually leak, then its not cowardly. If he knows he will eventually take the "blame" for it, he is owning it.

If people think they'd get away with it just because they're nobility, they're wrong

Why not? Whomever sits on the throne in the end will have "gotten away" with any brutality they did to get to that point.

What Tywin SHOULD have done was reigning in Cercei and Joff sooner and NOT let Ned's head chopped off.

Did you expect him to see the future? How was he to know that Cersei could not/would not have prevented this? He can't micromanage everything, he has to leave some decisions/actions to his children.

Judging Tywin's move from events that took place long after the event is troubling. It would be like saying Robb was idiotic to engineer the events of the Whispering Wood because Cat eventually released Jaime. Or that Tyrion was stupid to defend the Red Keep because eventually his father would come back and take over. Or that Stannis coming to defend the Wall was stupid because eventually he would have to face Ramsay. Tywin's act should be judged in its immediate effects. He killed a King, effectively disbanded two armies, kept a low profile, and did not lose a single man. To say that he would have eventually come to ruin is speculative at best, plus it argues a plot point (that Martin would eventually wreck the Lannisters), which is not something Tywin can ever hope to fight against.

[Mulled Wino]

Oh, I'm hit! He he.

I agree with everything you've said. I was looking at it as a single event and how it will be viewed historically from the macho-warrior culture of Westeros in answer to the original post. Can you picture Tarly talking to Dickon about how "genius" Tywin's Red Wedding was? Or any other lord who emphasizes the warrior credo?

If you look at it from a larger point of view and want to analyze the ramifications, it stills goes down as being successful. While Tywin was alive he accomplished his goal of solidifying power through his grandson who's King and the second (some would argue first) most powerful family at the time, the Tyrells. Tywin being killed and the Frey and Bolton plot not going as smoothly as planned, in my opinion, can't be directly tied to the Red Wedding. Never mind Cersei's follies, Tyrion's exile and Kevan's murder.

Lulz, those bullets had no name...

[Ragnorak]

Anyone who doesn't think that the Red Wedding was a brilliant move (from Tywin's perspective) is probably letting their emotions get in the way. It was a great way to end the war at minimal cost. Not to mention that the Frey's took the brunt of the backlash from the event itself.

The Frey's are taking the brunt of the backlash now. As of the end of ADwD Roose Bolton hasn't really suffered any RW backlash... yet. Based on the trajectory of events would you call the RW a brilliant move for Roose?

“My lords may not know,” said Qyburn, “but in the winesinks and pot shops of this city, there are those who suggest that the crown might have been somehow complicit in Lord Walder’s crime.”

This is after Tywin's death and everyone still believes the crown was complicit. The Lannister involvement did not escape anyone's notice.

“Lord Walder must soon face the Father’s judgment. He is very old. Let the sparrows spit upon his memory. It has nought to do with us.”

“No,” said Ser Harys. “No,” said Lord Merryweather. “No one could think so,” said Pycelle. Lord Gyles coughed.

They are yessing Cersei to death. It has everything to do with her. Just because the Freys and Boltons are likely to suffer the consequences first does not mean there will be no consequences for the Lannisters. This passage is Martin giving the readers a clear indication that the Lannisters are going to suffer consequences for the RW. In order for the RW to be brilliant the Lannisters need to be better off even after suffering those consequences.

I don't think the RW wasn't brilliant because my emotions get in the way. I think it because I read the book.

[E-Ro]

One trend i disagree with in this thread is that there seems to be a feeling that we still need to wait and see what happens to the Lannisters. The implication being that if the Lannisters fall, it will mean the RW is a failure. I dont think this is true at all. There's too many factors at play here, to blame it on the RW. The RW didnt cause Varys to kill Kevean, the RW has zero to do with Cersei's desparate attempts to destroy all the gains her family makes, RW has nothing to do with how Tywin treats his son, and he had no way to know Cat was going to deliver him Jamie as a freebie.

It is true, when a northern army sets the westerlands on fire from the golden tooth to faircastle and burns casterly rock to the ground killing every lannister in it in the process we will all know the rw failed in the long term, the west is no stranger to the wrath of the north only this time they wont be stealing some food and raping some women(yes even the northmen do this its part of war) They will be burning everything and massacering anyone who gets in the way, thanks to tywins "brilliant" Rw.

[RoamingRonin]

Not a genius plan nor a cowardly way out. It didn't involve a lot of cunning, just careful planning. It wasn't cowardly: you have to be bold as hell to break an ancient law out of pure spite/hatred. Everyone knows the Lannisters and Freys for what they are. The Red Wedding was their lowest, most deplorable act but I don't think anyone is shocked or praising its brilliance.

[LuisDantas]

Cowardly all the way. Not even a contest.

[LuisDantas]

Anyone who doesn't think that the Red Wedding was a brilliant move (from Tywin's perspective) is probably letting their emotions get in the way. It was a great way to end the war at minimal cost. Not to mention that the Frey's took the brunt of the backlash from the event itself.

Being brilliant from a coward's perspective is still being coward, you know.