The Red Wedding: Tywin's genius plan or cowardly way out? (spoilers)

[LuisDantas]

One trend i disagree with in this thread is that there seems to be a feeling that we still need to wait and see what happens to the Lannisters. The implication being that if the Lannisters fall, it will mean the RW is a failure. I dont think this is true at all. There's too many factors at play here, to blame it on the RW. The RW didnt cause Varys to kill Kevean, the RW has zero to do with Cersei's desparate attempts to destroy all the gains her family makes, RW has nothing to do with how Tywin treats his son, and he had no way to know Cat was going to deliver him Jamie as a freebie.

I disagree was well, but not for the same reasons. The RW is inherently a failure even if it somehow succeeds, as it arguably did, because of the very circunstances that made it possible in the first place.

For instance, it is the same mindset that made Tywin Lannister accept or perhaps even conceive of the RW in the first place that makes him capable of pressuring the Night's Watch into electing Janos Slynt for Lord Commander, or to destroy houses Reyne and Tarbek, or to be such a poor excuse for a father.

[Ragnorak]

Gotcha.

One trend i disagree with in this thread is that there seems to be a feeling that we still need to wait and see what happens to the Lannisters. The implication being that if the Lannisters fall, it will mean the RW is a failure. I dont think this is true at all. There's too many factors at play here, to blame it on the RW. The RW didnt cause Varys to kill Kevean, the RW has zero to do with Cersei's desparate attempts to destroy all the gains her family makes, RW has nothing to do with how Tywin treats his son, and he had no way to know Cat was going to deliver him Jamie as a freebie.

Agree and disagree. You're right in that any Varys scheme or fallout from the Purple Wedding has nothing to do with the RW.

But Stannis was told by Lyanna Mormont that she knows no King in the North but Stark and Alysane Mormont is marching in his army now. Manderly was very clear that his support for Stannis is basically the result of the RW. So there are possibilities where a Lannister fall could be directly attributed to the RW as well as some that are totally unrelated. Then you have Cersei arming the Faith and them revolting over the RW that becomes a grey area depending on the surrounding circumstances.

If Tywin flipped the Freys without a RW, then the Northern army would be back North fighting the Ironmen and helping defend the Wall. Robb's own assessment of his situation without the Freys was pretty dire. The Greyjoys would be occupied fighting the North instead of invading the Tyrells, and Stannis (who unlike Robb actually wants the Iron Throne) wouldn't be rallying the North. With a Stark in the North Euron might not have been free to abandon that fight to attack south. So I'm not certain that it is even crystal clear that the immediate political situation following the RW is better for the Lannisters. It might be but it is a debatable point.

If the RW was the killing blow to all opposition that Tywin thought it would be, the genius part would be unquestionable-- but it wasn't.

[SecretNegative]

It was definitely genius. In a single stroke he turned all-open war against an enemy who had not lost a single battle into a crushing victory, with the only remaining opposition being a almost defeated Stannis.

Tywin wasn't a very nice guy, but it's impossible to deny how shrewd and coldblooded he is.

[The Fallen]

I'm going off on a tangent here. We give Tywin credit for the Red Wedding, going so far as to label it 'genius'. But the demise of the Lannisters can be traced to another not-so-genius move by Tywin. Removing Tyrion from the Small Council.

[Khal Pono]

I'm going off on a tangent here. We give Tywin credit for the Red Wedding, going so far as to label it 'genius'. But the demise of the Lannisters can be traced to another not-so-genius move by Tywin. Removing Tyrion from the Small Council.

I thought Cersei did that, not Tywin, when she arrested him for Joffrey's murder. Wasn't he master of coin up till that moment?

[Ragnorak]

I'm going off on a tangent here. We give Tywin credit for the Red Wedding, going so far as to label it 'genius'. But the demise of the Lannisters can be traced to another not-so-genius move by Tywin. Removing Tyrion from the Small Council.

Cersei has a lot to do with the Lannister demise but you're right that they'd be better off if Tyrion was around and listened to. I think the moment the Lannister demise was set in motion was the Purple Wedding. Maybe a thread comparing the "genius" (maybe there's a better word?) of the Red and Purple Weddings might prove interesting.

[The Fallen]

I thought Cersei did that, not Tywin, when she arrested him for Joffrey's murder. Wasn't he master of coin up till that moment?

You might be right. Is that Littlefinger's old office? It's interesting though, that Tywin sent Tyrion to take over as hand to stop Cersei's incompetence from creating more problems for them. But he allowed her to carry out the mummers farce which was Tyrion's trial. So maybe that's what I'm getting at. Tywin should have set aside his hate of Tyrion long enough to recognize his abilities as a politician.

Cersei has a lot to do with the Lannister demise but you're right that they'd be better off if Tyrion was around and listened to. I think the moment the Lannister demise was set in motion was the Purple Wedding. Maybe a thread comparing the "genius" (maybe there's a better word?) of the Red and Purple Weddings might prove interesting.

I've been struggling with that word myself. I hesitate every time I go to type it.

[Lamech]

It was a good move. They were losing, losing badly, and this was the best option they had. Of course, it won't save them in the end. Jon, Arya, or UnCat will have their revenge in the end. Tywin, got dealt a crap hand and did his best with it. So, yes he'll fail in the end, but when a god resurrects fallen enemies, you lose.

[E-Ro]

If Tywin flipped the Freys without a RW, then the Northern army would be back North fighting the Ironmen and helping defend the Wall. Robb's own assessment of his situation without the Freys was pretty dire. The Greyjoys would be occupied fighting the North instead of invading the Tyrells, and Stannis (who unlike Robb actually wants the Iron Throne) wouldn't be rallying the North. With a Stark in the North Euron might not have been free to abandon that fight to attack south. So I'm not certain that it is even crystal clear that the immediate political situation following the RW is better for the Lannisters. It might be but it is a debatable point.

I disagree, if anyone but euron had won the kingsmoot perhaps but he pulled out to invade the reach, robb being alive does not change that. Besides even if the ironborn stay in the north(they wouldnt) They cannot stand against robbs army, look at the north, good, now look at the iron islands, do you really think that the ironborn could do anything to the north, and with winter coming? Ser rodrick was well on his way to defeating the ironborn with his 2,000 men, the ironborn have no heavy cavalry witch means on land they are worth nothing in pitched battle. The ironborn attack on the north was a minor annoyance untill theon took winterfell. And stannis instead of rallying the north would be rallying sellswords in bravos or rallying the stormlords. If tywin allows robb to get back north robb is untouchable, short of a fm and they are to expensive. As I said before all robb has to do is wait for tywin to die, then he has nothing to worry about at all, especially with the tyrell lannister alliance so precarious mace might decide a crown of his own is favorable to marrying with the lannisters and join robb.

[David Selig]

It was a good move. They were losing, losing badly, and this was the best option they had. Of course, it won't save them in the end. Jon, Arya, or UnCat will have their revenge in the end. Tywin, got dealt a crap hand and did his best with it. So, yes he'll fail in the end, but when a god resurrects fallen enemies, you lose.

Are you talking about the Lannisters? How were they losing, pray tell? After the alliance with the Tyrells, they had way bigger army than Robb and they had a huge advantage in terms of wealth and resources available.

[LordBloodraven]

It was a genius plan and a cowardly way out. Freys took the blame for it, and broke ancient laws of hospitality while Lannisters and Tyrells reaped on that success.

[E-Ro]

The tyrellisters definetly were not losing but if robb makes it north no one is going to get him out. As i said before all he has to do is outlive tywin, if the reach marches on riverun you have another ww. The only issue is the freys. But if robb marches north and then south again the second time he marches south he would have way more northmen because it is winter the crops are in and he would have more time to build his army.

[taipan]

Are you talking about the Lannisters? How were they losing, pray tell? After the alliance with the Tyrells, they had way bigger army than Robb and they had a huge advantage in terms of wealth and resources available.

Because I'd Edmure hadn't screwed up, Tywin would have been stuck in the west and Stannis would be holding KL.

[David Selig]

Because I'd Edmure hadn't screwed up, Tywin would have been stuck in the west and Stannis would be holding KL.

What's this got to do with the situation by the time of the RW?

[Ragnorak]

I disagree, if anyone but euron had won the kingsmoot perhaps but he pulled out to invade the reach, robb being alive does not change that. Besides even if the ironborn stay in the north(they wouldnt) They cannot stand against robbs army, look at the north, good, now look at the iron islands, do you really think that the ironborn could do anything to the north, and with winter coming? Ser rodrick was well on his way to defeating the ironborn with his 2,000 men, the ironborn have no heavy cavalry witch means on land they are worth nothing in pitched battle. The ironborn attack on the north was a minor annoyance untill theon took winterfell. And stannis instead of rallying the north would be rallying sellswords in bravos or rallying the stormlords. If tywin allows robb to get back north robb is untouchable, short of a fm and they are to expensive. As I said before all robb has to do is wait for tywin to die, then he has nothing to worry about at all, especially with the tyrell lannister alliance so precarious mace might decide a crown of his own is favorable to marrying with the lannisters and join robb.

Robb would be untouchable in the North but also no threat while he stayed there. I was thinking more that Robb would try and invade the Iron Islands for killing Bran and Rickon thus tying them up rather than a Northern land war. But its all hypothetical and as I conceded debatable so you could be entirely correct.

Tywin chose not to treat with Balon before the RW because he said given time a better option might present itself. I read that as the RW being the factor in waiting instead of negotiating. It turned out that Euron invading the Reach was the "better option." I doubt any agreement Tywin could have made with Balon would be followed by Euron, but he didn't even try to eliminate the Greyjoy threat variable because it seems he deemed they would be a nonfactor after the RW. Even though the Greyjoys and the North not tying each other up isn't exactly fallout from the RW it was part of Tywin's vision of the results of the RW that did not come to fruition. Since it wasn't the killing blow he hoped for, I think its genius is still an open question.

[taipan]

What's this got to do with the situaation by the time of the RW?

Probably because the situation would have been totally different at the time of the RW?

[yisaiii]

Slight sidebar - I've been reading a lot of Chinese history lately, and it's really interesting to see this question raised. Historical authors and strategists alike more often than not celebrate the idea of removing your adversaries outside the battlefield. Two of Sun Tzu's central ideas apply, that 1.) the greatest battles are won without fighting, and 2.) all warfare is based on deception.

Reading the RW section reminded me of the Feast at Hong Gate (founder of Han dynasty nearly killed at a banquet held by his archrival). Although the HG feast failed, most historians criticize the archrival for not following through, since it led to several more years of war and his ultimate political failure.

So forgive me if I praise Tywin for orchestrating the RW. Genius move. At the time of the idea's inception, he was surrounded by enemies on both sides, had either no relationship or an uneasy relationship with Highgarden and Dorne, and faced internal turmoil at KL and with the BWB. To me, whether Tywin felt confident in his ability to beat Robb on the battlefield was irrelevant by that point. Chancing battle with the North in itself was not the best strategic move if it meant risking an uprising by the Tyrells while KL or the Westerlands were weakened, for example.

[E-Ro]

Robb would be untouchable in the North but also no threat while he stayed there. I was thinking more that Robb would try and invade the Iron Islands for killing Bran and Rickon thus tying them up rather than a Northern land war. But its all hypothetical and as I conceded debatable so you could be entirely correct.

Robb is a huge threat to the lannisters no matter where he is because him being alive gives the tyrells a second option away from the lannisters, with robb alive they can jump ship at any time. I also dont think he would war with the ironborn theon would tell him bran and rickon are still alive and the ironborn invading the reach helps him greatly. I am not arguing the rw was a brilliant move I think it was a clever short term move on the lannister part becaus it got rid of a huge threat. When you look at the lannisters before the blackwater they are losing badly and robbs position is strongest the ironborn invasion is what did robb in by forcing him to go home and prompting his mother to release jaime, after the blackwater the lannisters are doing much better but robb is still a huge threat, they can invade the riverlands and be met with fierce resistance and take huge casualties, then try to get north wich would be suicide. Or they can have robb killed and cut thier losses. the rw was the best option at the time.

[the Scorpion Knight]

It was definitely genius. In a single stroke he turned all-open war against an enemy who had not lost a single battle into a crushing victory, with the only remaining opposition being a almost defeated Stannis.

heres the problem It's the bold part and with balon death the tide could have turned ulgy for tywin

[Lamech]

Are you talking about the Lannisters? How were they losing, pray tell? After the alliance with the Tyrells, they had way bigger army than Robb and they had a huge advantage in terms of wealth and resources available.

They had lost every battle. It wasn't exactly a good place to be. Sure the odds might end up being against Robb, but they were against him before. And Robb won those battles. So maybe he might have won, but it might have been painful and it might not have even worked at all. It won Tywin the North and the only backlash so far has been UnCat; I for one don't fault him for forseeing that.