The Spicers: what game are they playing?

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

Clearly the leadership of the family is working hand-in-hand with Tywin at that point.

But ... unless you believe the love potion thing, which I don't ... what did the Spicers do? Robb slept with Jeyne, Robb married Jeyne, Robb turned the Freys and Boltons against him by doing that. The Freys had their own excuse to turn on him, and it was the Freys who lured him to the Twins. I've already pointed out how what happened at the Crag was almost certainly out of Tywin's control; he might not even have known about the storming until after it had already happened, so it's probably not something he can engineer beforehand. He's not omnipotent.

So when you say "working hand-in-hand with Tywin," that means what, exactly?

[Faint]

So when you say "working hand-in-hand with Tywin," that means what, exactly?

I've not great ideas about it. I'd almost certainly have to know when the Spicers first made contact with Tywin and that's rather difficult to determine. It might truly be nothing more than ensuring that Jeyne did not become pregnant though.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

I've not great ideas about it. I'd almost certainly have to know when the Spicers first made contact with Tywin and that's rather difficult to determine. It might truly be nothing more than ensuring that Jeyne did not become pregnant though.

Yes, that's a strong possibility. As I said, though, it's also possible that Sybell was feeding her fertility potions as long as Robb was winning, and planned to give her a moon tea cocktail if and when the time came. Until Robb was actually dead, nothing was certain and I can see Sybell wanting to straddle the fence for as long as possible.

[Faint]

Yes, that's a strong possibility. As I said, though, it's also possible that Sybell was feeding her fertility potions as long as Robb was winning, and planned to give her a moon tea cocktail if and when the time came. Until Robb was actually dead, nothing was certain and I can see Sybell wanting to straddle the fence for as long as possible.

I don't know; that seems a risky proposition. I think it was safer to simply deny her daughter pregnancy until seeing whether Robb had any prospects of winning the war at all or, at the very least, retaining the North. Children could always come later. I see no reason why Sybell would need to ensure the possibility of Jeyne having children quickly, especially with Robb off at war.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

I don't know; that seems a risky proposition. I think it was safer to simply deny her daughter pregnancy until seeing whether Robb had any prospects of winning the war at all or, at the very least, retaining the North. Children could always come later. I see no reason why Sybell would need to ensure the possibility of Jeyne having children quickly, especially with Robb off at war.

Because if Jeyne had a child, the Spicers/Westerlings would have a power "in" in the North and Riverlands if Robb died. Getting a few Westerlands marriages and a ruined castle isn't much next to having possession of and authority over a newborn king, whom Robb's men would probably fight for. If Robb died and they were childless, the Westerlings would have nothing nearly as valuable, and no one would go to bat for them. Think of it like an ace up the sleeve — there's some speculation I've seen (not sure how much I buy it, but here it is) that Sybell saw Tywin's downfall coming and planned accordingly.

[Faint]

Because if Jeyne had a child, the Spicers/Westerlings would have a power "in" in the North and Riverlands if Robb died. Getting a few Westerlands marriages and a ruined castle isn't much next to having possession of and authority over a newborn king, whom Robb's men would probably fight for. If Robb died and they were childless, the Westerlings would have nothing nearly as valuable, and no one would go to bat for them. Think of it like an ace up the sleeve — there's some speculation I've seen (not sure how much I buy it, but here it is) that Sybell saw Tywin's downfall coming and planned accordingly.

I don't think the argument follows. If Robb died, his effort was likely to be done in any case. Worse yet, if Robb died and Jeyne was pregnant and the Stark forces ended up losing anyways (provided they fought on for Robb's unborn child), the Westerlings and Spicers would all be massacred by the Lannisters afterwards. There really is no good reason for Jeyne to have become pregnant quickly unless victory was assured or probable, which was not at all the case in this circumstance.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

I don't think the argument follows. If Robb died, his effort was likely to be done in any case. Worse yet, if Robb died and Jeyne was pregnant and the Stark forces ended up losing anyways (provided they fought on for Robb's unborn child), the Westerlings and Spicers would all be massacred by the Lannisters afterwards. There really is no good reason for Jeyne to have become pregnant quickly unless victory was assured or probable, which was not at all the case in this circumstance.

If Jeyne and her family could have reasonably been killed if she got pregnant anyway, why reward the Spicers for preventing her pregnancy? If Tywin would or could have killed her in any case, why is the pregnancy prevention worth land and titles and a castle? I mean, by your logic, shouldn't the reward have been "not getting Reyne'd"?

[Faint]

If Jeyne and her family could have reasonably been killed if she got pregnant anyway, why reward the Spicers for preventing her pregnancy? If Tywin would or could have killed her in any case, why is the pregnancy prevention worth land and titles and a castle? I mean, by your logic, shouldn't the reward have been "not getting Reyne'd"?

So that the war effort would not have dragged on. Had she been pregnant and the Northern forces continued to fight on because of that, Tywin would have had to devote many months more towards pacifying the realm. By Sybell Spicer's efforts, once Robb died, that broke all opposition. Sure, the Lannisters would have won anyway but they would have lost many men in the process.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

So that the war effort would not have dragged on. Had she been pregnant and the Northern forces continued to fight on because of that, Tywin would have had to devote many months more towards pacifying the realm. By Sybell Spicer's efforts, once Robb died, that broke all opposition. Sure, the Lannisters would have won anyway but they would have lost many men in the process.

Why would the war effort drag on if the Lannisters just killed Jeyne? How is that any different from the war (allegedly) ending once Robb was killed?

ETA: We're getting into "agree to disagree" territory. Suffice to say that I think something hinky is very obviously going on, and I'm still not sure what the Spicers did to earn Castamere. Not sure "keeping Jeyne from getting knocked up" really explains it, not when any good westerman who didn't want to be exterminated would supposedly have done that for free.

[Faint]

Why would the war effort drag on if the Lannisters just killed Jeyne? How is that any different from the war (allegedly) ending once Robb was killed?

No, you're not understanding. If Jeyne was pregnant after the Red Wedding and it was known, loyalist Stark forces might have still fought on. The Lannisters would have had to combat these efforts, and lost men in the process, even though their victory was basically assured. At that point, if they had not committed suicide already, all the Spicers and Westerlings would have been executed.

So even assuming Jeyne was pregnant at the time of the Red Wedding, you better believe that Sybell Spicer would have stopped at nothing to terminate the pregnancy.

[chrisdaw]

But ... unless you believe the love potion thing, which I don't ... what did the Spicers do? I've already pointed out how what happened at the Crag was almost certainly out of Tywin's control

But it wasn't out of Spicer control, to Tywin's knowledge they seized an opportunity and threw their daughter in Robbs way and bed to further fracture the Norths already Splintering forces. They could have quite easily kept their match appropriate sweet natured doe eyed daughter in her room playing scrabble rather than allowing Robb and her some lonely vulnerable together time.

[assjfjgjsgjljljglgjfjsduar]

No, you're not understanding. If Jeyne was pregnant after the Red Wedding and it was known, loyalist Stark forces might have still fought on. The Lannisters would have had to combat these efforts, and lost men in the process, even though their victory was basically assured. At that point, if they had not committed suicide already, all the Spicers and Westerlings would have been executed.

So even assuming Jeyne was pregnant at the time of the Red Wedding, you better believe that Sybell Spicer would have stopped at nothing to terminate the pregnancy.

And the way I explained the scenario, Sybell may have been trying to terminate it and was unable to, either because Jeyne was on to her or because the castle fell before the opportunity arose. But if there was a switch, she can pretty easily feed the lie that she gave Jeyne contraceptives, given that Elenya is obviously not pregnant.

But hey, you know what. I'm willing to believe that Jeyne might not be pregnant. Regardless, the girl Jaime sees is not Jeyne Westerling.

But it wasn't out of Spicer control, to Tywin's knowledge they seized an opportunity and threw their daughter in Robbs way and bed to further fracture the Norths already Splintering forces. They could have quite easily kept their match appropriate sweet natured doe eyed daughter in her room playing scrabble rather than allowing Robb and her some lonely vulnerable together time.

They had to have known that Robb would 1. sleep with her and 2. (this is the biggie) marry her. How is that under their control? Unless it really was a love potion, in which case all the shit Robb gets for thinking with his dick can cease, like, yesterday.

[Jolene Brown]

I find it hard to believe that Tywin could have planned all this for sure, but the rewards indicate some greater action on their part than what we know about - perhaps they simply did what they could to create circumstances in which Robb and Jeyne might potentially sleep together, then were sure to catch them once they had - forcing him into a situation where he would feel more of a need to marry Jeyne to protect her honor.

[Faint]

And the way I explained the scenario, Sybell may have been trying to terminate it and was unable to, either because Jeyne was on to her or because the castle fell before the opportunity arose. But if there was a switch, she can pretty easily feed the lie that she gave Jeyne contraceptives, given that Elenya is obviously not pregnant.

I suppose my argument is that it would have never gotten to that point. Sybelle Spicer would have never risked Jeyne getting pregnant while Robb's situation was so precarious (assuming, for the sake of argument, that she was playing both sides). There would be no benefit to it and only high risk whose consequence would very probably involve her and her family being annihilated by Tywin Lannister.

Regardless, the girl Jaime sees is not Jeyne Westerling.

Well now, that is a completely different issue. I have no firm conviction about it really. Perhaps you are right, it isn't her.

Still, if the girl Jaime sees is not Jeyne Westerling, that doesn't necessarily mean Sybelle Spicer is loyal to the Stark cause. If Jeyne escaped from under her eye to go with the Blackfish, or if she insisted on going and Sybelle was powerless to stop it, she might very well have acted the way she did to Jaime even while remaining loyal to her decision to side with the Lannisters.

What else was she supposed to do? Tell Jaime the truth while still in his hands?

Highly unlikely.

[chrisdaw]

A starry eyed highly attractive young girl set alone with a bored injured hurting handsome young king, it doesn't take a love potion or magical foresight to conclude there's a better chance than not of sparks flying. I don't have the books here but I'm fairly sure Robb remarks to Cat about how much time they spent alone together, such was by design. They simply played the averages, it might not have worked out, but if so what do they lose? Jeyne's maidenhood, should Robb sleep with her and decide not to marry her. Seems like a small thing to gamble when the rewards would be so great if they succeeded. They could have merely been trying to weasel their way in as best they could in order to play double agent and reap the rewards from Tywin for what information they could gather and sabotages they could manage, they may have never expected him to marry her had they not deduced Robbs character at that point, but all went better than expected.

[Ser_Patreck]

Couldn't it be that Tywin's gift of Castamere is some sort of ironic, sick joke? Like, "Yeah, you did good, here, have Castamere", the symbol of treason of the might of Casterly Rock... While thinking that, as soon as the dust settled, they would pay dearly? A subtle jape that, no matter what they did to alleviate it afterwards, he would still torn them down?

Obviously, he was counting with Tyrion's crossbow...

[Jolene Brown]

Quote from Robb: "I took an arrow in the arm. At first it seemed like nothing, and then it festered." Then he explains how Jeyne nursed him personally, in her own bedchamber.

Maybe Sybil did something to the wound, to keep him around, vulnerable, and spending a lot of time with her beautiful young daughter...

[LittleDragon8]

Castamere will prove to be a Harrenhal 2.0, I am convinced. Both Harrenhal and Castamere are haunted, and both are given away to lower nobility for services rendered. I don't think Rolf Spicer will enjoy his boon for very long.

[Ser Loudmouth]

ETA: Rolph Spicer gets Castamere, but I can't for the life of me figure out why. I can't see anything that he (or Sybell, even) did that warranted that boon. The Red Wedding was the brainchild of Roose and the Freys, and Robb broke his oath to the Freys on his own. Not sure what the Spicers even did that merits the rewards, unless it's based solely on the understanding that Jeyne was not to get pregnant.

Yeah, so far this is the only thing that I can think of that makes people think they had more involvement, it's a very uncharacteristically kind gesture from Tywin, I would have thought they would have lost lands/holdings for being traitors, and their reward for not botching the RW and not letting Jeyne be pregnant would be they get to live. Agreed with the very difficult to plan events leading up to the marriage being impossible to plan.

That's what puzzles me allso. This is why I came up with the theory that the Spicers were feeding Tywin with supernatural information that helped him plan the Red Wedding

...

Meanwhile, Sybil writes to Tywin, remember we don't get his POV in ASOS but we get Tyrion's line about wars being won with ravens. So Sybil writes, "Dear Tywin, the Starks took my castle and married my daughter. We are your ever loyal servants, what can we do to play this to your advantage? I await instructions." (Opening of ASOS)

Then Tywin gets the letter and being the genius he is, replies, "Marry Stark, no children or heirs, I'll take care of the rest." You will be rewarded if this pays off..

...

That's an interesting theory, and it makes a lot of sense. But what do you think: when did Sybel regain access to the castle Rookery? Remember, before the wedding the Spicers and Westerlings would be still prisoners and their correspondence would be checked and censored. Or did Sybell use other, more secret channels of communication.

Yes, that's a strong possibility. As I said, though, it's also possible that Sybell was feeding her fertility potions as long as Robb was winning, and planned to give her a moon tea cocktail if and when the time came. Until Robb was actually dead, nothing was certain and I can see Sybell wanting to straddle the fence for as long as possible.

It is allso possilbe that Sybell lied to Jaime about giving Jeyne contraceptives for the whole time (which if true would have implied a very early contact with Tywin and request from him to do so).

The "fake Jeyne"/"secret Stark heir" theory also makes more sense if the Spicers are playing a double game, but I don't believe that theory because of the logistical problems: are we supposed to believe that the Blackfish swam out of Riverrun at night with a small baby (or a pregnant woman) in tow? That does not sound possible.

Couldn't it be that Tywin's gift of Castamere is some sort of ironic, sick joke? Like, "Yeah, you did good, here, have Castamere", the symbol of treason of the might of Casterly Rock... While thinking that, as soon as the dust settled, they would pay dearly? A subtle jape that, no matter what they did to alleviate it afterwards, he would still torn them down?

In that case, the Spicers obvoiusly didn't get the joke, because they expect even more rewards.

[pamparius]

I have mixed feelings about to what extent it could have been possible to plan out the Robb/Jeyne part of the RW, but rather than relying on "seeing the future," I think the idea that someone used a "love potion" fits better with what we know about Maggy and the way we know Sybell also gave Jeyne a potion to prevent her from getting pregnant. Robb was being cared for, vulnerable, injured - easy to slip something into his food to up the odds of his falling for Jeyne. Jeyne wouldn't even have known in all likelihood - her mother would have done it. On the other hand, I feel like that sort of diminishes the emotional impact of the story - if he was manipulated in part rather than completely brought down by his own fatal flaw (Ned's honor). I do wonder about Tywin's line that Jeyne "is her mother's daughter," as Robb "is his father's son," since Jeyne's mother is presented to as as a very unsympathetic/unsavory character.

Also, there is a line in passing that Tywin sent the Spicers out to look for Jaime after his "escape" from Riverrun. Another indication that there was never any conflict between him and Jeyne's family at all - they were always on the same side. Otherwise, there's no way he would have trusted a Spicer with such an important task.

This seems like a needlessly complicated plan that could be foiled by so many outside factors that it would be implausible for them to expect it to work... It's predicated on them knowing how Robb will react, what he will do and an incredible amount of luck. I just don't see it. It's far more likely that Tywin was just an opportunistic man who made a move when he saw an opening.

We should also note that Jeyne is a Westerling, not a Spicer. Even if The Spicer's were involved it doesn't mean that Jeyne's mother and father were. And while it's all well and good to say 'well they had nothing to lose but their daughter's maidenhood.." I have trouble believing they'd be fine with sacrificing their daughter's virginity/honour/marriageable worth in the future.

On the other hand...

A starry eyed highly attractive young girl set alone with a bored injured hurting handsome young king, it doesn't take a love potion or magical foresight to conclude there's a better chance than not of sparks flying.

This is a really good point. It lacks the nefarious undertones involved in their complicitness with the Red Wedding. Although I would suggest It's more likely that Jeyne's parents saw this happening as it was occurring and sat back without interfering to see where it would go... Perhaps to sow their seeds in another camp just in case the Lannisters don't end up top dog. Let's not forget that at this point the Lannister position is hardly looking ideal, Tywin bungling the campaign in the Riverlands. Renly making his claim with the strength of High Garden behind him and Stannis with a substantial navy at Dragonstone. And Last, but definitely not least, Joff's dubious at best short reign is hardly making him out to be a king worth following.

If you ask me, it seems like the Westerlings were looking for a way to jump ship and tie themselves in with a powerful family.