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Theon Sample Chapter; The Letter sent to Jon (Spoilers)


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1.- Stannis would like to warn Jon.

Conjecture. Or leastways that he would feel obligated to make a big production out of it. A single man on a horse would get to the Wall before Ramsay with his army.

2.- He has a couple of ravens at his disposal.He knows these ravens have been trained to fly to WF. They are behaving strangely.

Do we have any reason to believe Stannis knows the ravens are behaving oddly, or might misdeliver?

3.- Many readers suspect the ravens are being inhabited by Bran and BR. If so, there's a very good possibility they could be flown to CB instead of WF.

Again this all goes to motives- who would know these things, when, and why they would act on them. The that Stannis suspected a raven sent to WF would misdeliver to castle black and hence he faked a letter from Ramsay is just difficult to swallow (rimshot).

4.- If Stannis takes Theon to the weirwood and depending on what transpires , there's a good chance he may come to believe it's possible too.. but not be able to be 100% certain.

So he hatches a dubious plan to warn Jon? Why is it even a priority- the Watch and the wildlingling allies would be a pretty good match for Ramsay.

5.- Under these circumstances ,Stannis may decide a chance of warning Jon is better than no chance at all, even though the raven may fly to WF. It's a risk he has to take if there's a hope of giving Jon a heads up.

Well and good- but why not just send the raven with a normal message and hope for the best? Roose is simply going to be furious that Ramsay took off with a good chunk of his forces and left him in the wind without taking at a single Stannis warrior. 'Just in case this raven goes nuts and takes my note to WF im gonna create this elaborate deception that will really mess with Bolton's head... for about 5 minutes when he realizes the situation on the ground in no way resembles the letter'. Wouldn't Roose be a bit curious why his son or other commanders didn't bother sending HIM a victory letter?

6.- Stannis is planning to try to turn events regarding a seige / battle in his favour by faking his own death. So if the raven does fly to WF, he doesn't want to tip his hand to Roose . Therefore he disguises the letter to sound like Ramsay.

What hand? Ok lets say Stannis won the battle and somehow bagged the entire Bolton/Frey army with no survivors escaping to tell the tale. Then he somehow manages to disguise a big chunk of his force to look like Boltons with (assumedly) himself as Ramsay carrying his sword. But... oops- the lynchpin of his entire stratagem misfired when the bird delivered its message where it was supposed to instead of misdelivering. Close the gates, boiling oil, Stannis joins Loras on the burn ward IR indefinitely.

It seems so simple but i just don't see it happening that way.

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I tend to think the simpler explanation is best; Stannis uses the Winterfell ravens to misinform the Boltons. The letter to Jon seems a predictable next step for an impulsive psychopath like Ramsey...

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mbeuhner :D.. Of course it's conjecture !.. :D It's all conjecture !..we only have ADWD and the Theon chapter to go on ..there's no absolutely sure case for any of the candidates..That's why we're here , a year after ADWD and and 6 mo's after the gift chapter... We don't know what will happen when /if they take Theon to the weirwood...

Stannis has more than one raven ( He could send one to Roose and still try to send one to Jon ).. He has met run of the mill ravens and Mormont's raven ..which do you think these make him think of ?

One man on a horse might get there before Ramsay ..if his horse doesn't break down ... all Stannis' horses are stressed. They've been starving and freezing. Another messenger might not get there before Tycho , why bother ?

Anyway , this is silly arguing in circles . Especially if you insist on overstating and twisting what I and others have said and putting words in our mouths.. I don't feel like answering your mis-statements of what I've said ad infinitum. You don't have to accept any of the scenarios as possible but if you have to mis-state and twist people's meanings , you're not actually refuting their logic..just prolonging a useless cycle of sniping.

So. I've laid out a possibility ( I never said a certainty) for Stannis' authorship that may shape up based on developments, hints and allusions in the Theon chapter ( but , of course subject to change based on what GRRM writes next )...we've reasoned it out in a number of threads..on this thread alone , I've already addressed all the points you raise.

That's all..especially since, myself , I'd like to move on to considering the case for Mance , and some other possibilities.

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  • 3 weeks later...

So many of these theories are really convincing I really don't know which way to lean! I do think however that we shouldn't dismiss Roose entirely. Yes, this seems to be very unsubtle and reckless for Roose but it maybe that he has little choice. Assuming that he has sent the Freyy/Manderly forces out in order to lessen the immediate danger in WF from the tension between the camps, but he has just lost his claim to WF and the North in "Arya" as well as the person (Theon) who knows that not only is Arya fake but also that Bran and Rickon aren't dead and that Ramsay "killed" them and sacked WF. He can only assume that "Arya" is either with Stannis (he knows about the Umbers with Stannis and knows that there were some troops loyal to Stannis outside WF who must have recovered Theon/Arya, or being sent to the Wall where he would know that Jon would identify her. We also know that Roose is afraid from Theon's description of fear in his eyes. Assuming it is true that Ramsay is going after Reek/Arya, the letter could serve a number of purposes for Roose: To draw Jon away from the Wall so that he is less likely to meet up with "Arya"/Theon as well as to possibly get rid of Ramsay who is increasingly becoming a liability for Roose. By encouraging the NW to send on Stannis family he stands to gain hostages with which to keep Stannis at bay, if Stannis survives the attack (it seems Roose would probably anticipate this outcome based upon his fear and his choice to send his least important troops.) It does sound reckless for Roose but if "Arya" reaches the Wall or Theon reveals what has happened to the wider North (not just Stannis) he is done anyway. Taken as a last resort it could be seen as some masterful manipulation. If he does have Mance and knows what Mance knows he probably knows of the tension at the Wall and that Jon doesn't have enough NW to do much on his own, and goading him into action could eliminate him from the board so to speak. Roose does similar when convincing Rob not to return north, at least until Ramsay has WF and the RW is planned.

I'm not saying that it is necessarily likely that Roose wrote it, just that I think it is a definite possibility, and from a logical standpoint, you could certainly argue that Roose has more reason to write the letter and more to gain from its being sent. After all, considering Roose's situation- snowed in in a ruined fortress, factional infighting, unexplained (at least to the men) murders, prisoner escapes, Ramsay the 'mad dog' losing his claim to Winterfell and the man with the knowledge of everything that has happened, maybe all Roose can do is go for the Hail Mary...

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Theon does not know about Mance and the spearwives would not have told him.

The only one who knows everything in the letter,assuming he hasn't been tortured,is Mance.

Well not necessarily. The spearwives take Reek to Abel to tell Reek of the plan to free "Arya." Therefore, Theon would know what Abel (Mance) looked like. If he tells Stannis how he was able to escape, Theon would tell that Wildlings were responsible. Stannis would probably ask what Able looked like and and in that way would know that Able was Mance.

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I haven't read all the pots so if I say something completely stupid excuse me. I don't get it why people say "it's not Stannis style"; Jon clearly cares a lot for his family it's quite in the face but if Stannis didn' t see it could be that Mel talked to him about the 'grey girl coming to the wall', that's why he says that Arya is coming to the wall, even if he believed that he has the right Arya( we don't know what he thinks regard her), even if nothing the above happened Stannis saw how honorable Jon is, he actually mention it and compare him even to Ned, he KNEW Jon would come, he wouldn't leave for land and title, but he would leave for his little sister. I think Stannis thought that the others NW would join him, NOW THAT'S SO STANNIS, he counted on the honor of those men.

Stannis isn't dumb and so pure, remember that he said that Ned was to honorable and that was his flaw. I believe that Stannis would lie to, get more men to fight for him. He came to the wall and expect everybody to bang over him, why not lie to get these men to fight for him? This is war.

Now about the Reek and Mance thing, or Mance told Theon on the way out Winterfell or he just assumed, I mean in the letter says "friends", it's pretty obvious that who came with Theon and Jeyne weren't Bolton allies. And in his chapter in TWoW, Theon refer to himself as reek once, I doubt that Stannie didn't wonder/ask him about that before.

Why I don't think it's Ramsay if there was a battle he wouldn't let Stannis be alive, and I doubt that Stannis few remaining men would slit in groups. And Jon and Theon chapters couldn't be THAT apart in the time line. So, if I'm right and there was no battle, I don't see Ramsay being so smart to discover so much by himself. He's cruel but not smart. Maybe it was Roose, to scare Jon and NW in case Stannis come to there, IDK, Roose's smart enough to think about writing that letter, but I think that he's too smart, he would pull something else. IDK. I just really don't think it's Ramsay.

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I had not considered the members of the NW forging a fake letter to get Jon to commit to something rash in order to oust him. That does seem to make quite a bit of sense, however, how would they know about Ramsay wanting his bride and especially his Reek back? Even if they somehow figured out that Mance Rayder had gone to Winterfell with his spearwives (highly unlikely since they all thought Mance burned), how would they know that the plan succeeded?

The one person in the NW that would jump at the opportunity to catch Jon Snow and have him executed would be Allister Thorne, but he is off on a ranging and has yet to return. There is no way he would have known all the things that the letter dictated.

To me, the letter has to be from Ramsay. It convey's Ramsay's rage pretty well. I do not think most of the letter is factual though. I think Ramsay has quite a bit of misinformation that has been handed to him. The dead ones are the Freys.

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My guess is Melisandre, because neither Stannis nor Ramsay knew the details in their entirety. She has been wooing Jon to trust her, and obviously to no vail. My prediction is that Jon will wake up and first person he'll see is Melisandre, and Melisandre will have cleaned and treated his wounds with fire and/or sorcery. She is desparate earn his trust, this ruse may do just that, and by now she's pretty much figured out that Jon is the prince who promised, and he's Rhaegar's son.

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The one person in the NW that would jump at the opportunity to catch Jon Snow and have him executed would be Allister Thorne, but he is off on a ranging and has yet to return. There is no way he would have known all the things that the letter dictated.

If Thorne's buddy, who is in charge at Eastwatch, lets Thorne through the gates, it is possible that no one would know of Thorne's return. It seems to me that the morning after the Hooded Man's encounter with Theon that Roose knows who Mance is. Roose tasks Abel with singing songs, but does he have his guards set to capture Mance as he sings? Thorne knows perfectly well who Mance is. If Thorne plans to get rid of Jon, it would be a good idea for him to get approval from the Warden of the North before he acted. Spending the night with Roose and Ramsay could easily give Thorne all of the information that he needs to write that letter.
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If Thorne's buddy, who is in charge at Eastwatch, lets Thorne through the gates, it is possible that no one would know of Thorne's return. It seems to me that the morning after the Hooded Man's encounter with Theon that Roose knows who Mance is. Roose tasks Abel with singing songs, but does he have his guards set to capture Mance as he sings? Thorne knows perfectly well who Mance is. If Thorne plans to get rid of Jon, it would be a good idea for him to get approval from the Warden of the North before he acted. Spending the night with Roose and Ramsay could easily give Thorne all of the information that he needs to write that letter.

The only ones who know who Rattleshirt is are Mel and Jon IIRC. Additionally, I think that Thorne was sent out on the ranging before Mance was sent south. There doesn't seem to be any possible way that Thorne could have been privy to any of the things in the letter. I'm sure he is gonna be bummed about missing the opportunity to literally stab Jon in the back though.

The only writer that makes sense to me is Ramsay. 1/2 the Spearwives were caught and slain during Reek and Jeyne's escape. The rest were rounded up and slain (apparently also skinned). Its very possible that Mance gave up his name under torture. The other thing that gives away that it was Ramsay who sent the letter is that he is still looking for Theon though he claims that Stannis is dead and defeated. If Stannis were really crushed, he would have gotten Theon back (or theon's head) because none of the northern allies that Stannis held would have let him escape with them.

To me, this points directly to Ramsay being the penman of the letter. He has received false reports of Stannis' death. Soon he will get the surprise attack that no-one expects. The Freys and Karstarks are dead. The Manderlys are returning with faux Freys (Stannis' men dressed in Frey colors) and Stannis' sword as proof of his death. Meanwhile, Stannis and the rest of his forces stand poised to be somehow snuck into WF.

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Sorry in advance for the length of this comment, but I want to put forward a NW deadenders theory.

I do not think the Pink letter was written by Ramsey. There are details in it that he is very unlikely to know and pretty unlikely to mention even if he did. The letter serves him no tactical benefit. Ramsey is a character known for being underhanded, deferential to his Father, sneaky and not very bright when it comes to politics. The Pink Letter lets it all hang out and there’s no way Roose would approve a letter that announces to the world and the North that Ramsey has lost his bride. And if Roose is dead, then Ramsey would have other things on his plate than writing Jon Snow a letter demanding ‘the wildling babe’. Yes, Ramsey is filled with psychotic rage, but the letter is too carefully crafted for it to be a product of that rage.

Every line of the letter is crafted to test Jon Snow and move him to openly break his vows as a brother of the Night’s Watch. I think the letter was a test crafted by some co-conspirators at the NW—think of them as a group of NW deadenders who wanted to stop the rapid change being brought about by Jon Snow and King Stannis.

Bowen Marsh and Wick Wittlestick were clearly involved, but I suspect that there were others at Castle Black, Eastwatch and elsewhere, including Glendon Hewett, Septon Cellador, Clydas and Alliser Thorne. The focus of the NW had been fighting the Wildlings for a very long time. The idea of fighting The Others has been lost. The wildlings were the enemy. For the NW deadenders, the Others were seen as a the secondary threat. Even the recent events of ASoIaF would do little to change the viewpoint of NW members who never saw a wight or an Other—a trait most of the co-conspirators share. They are also a group who saw Stannis as a rebel and Tommen Baratheon as the rightful King.

The letter was like a detective playing his hunch in an old mystery novel—design to smoke out the ‘guilty’. It was written based on some facts they knew and some ideas that they only suspected to be true. Parts of the letter were guesses. If Jon took no action based on the letter, then I don’t think he would have been stabbed. But if Jon did act, then the letter was crafted to provide the conspirators a justification for their betrayal.

Everything about the letter benefitted the NW deadenders—even its timing. It arrived just before the mission to Hardhome is about to announced. Molly tell’s Jon that “Clydas don’t look his proper self … he’s more white than pink, if you get my meaning … and he’s shaking” when he arrives with the letter—a letter sealed with wax and only the word ‘Bastard’ on the outside. That would not explain Clydas, but delivering a letter that never traveled by a raven might.

So, let’s break down the letter:

Yes, Ramsey might have written this, but it is also how all the NW deadenders think of John. As for the handwriting: Marsh and his stewards would have had access to the letter Ramsey sent announcing his marriage to Arya. Clydas saw it and there is not a mention of its destruction. If the letter was with Jon’s things, a steward would have had access to it—especially if Marsh asked for it.

The “smashed in seven days” may have come from Septon Cellador to honor The Seven—I doubt that it has any ring of truth. Clydas would have heard Maester Aemon’s concerns about the sword. While Ramsey might have said ‘False king’ and ‘red whore’, it would also be how the NW deadenders think of Stannis and Mel. The opening graph would give Jon pause, doubts and fears for his sister and the future.

The heads on the wall and the invitation to see them are crafted to feed Jon’s doubts and fears. I suspect that the section on Mance is a guess by the NW deadenders. They know that Mel does sorcery. They know that ‘Rattleshirt’ left. I suspect they know that he left with six spearwives from Molestown. This party would need provisions—provisions of the NW. I think Marsh would make note of that loss and ask questions. In the end the conspirators would learn enough to make an educated guess. [How? Somebody told. Somebody always tells.]

The “I want my bride back” line is designed to fill Jon with both hope and dread—hope that Arya somehow got away and dread that she is in mortal danger. Mance in a cage covered by the skins of the spearwives is crafted for a twofold purpose. One to make it sound like a Bolton and two, to confirm the guess that Jon kept Mance alive, sent him to save his sister and betrayed the NW. Everybody knows the Bolton legends concerning flaying folks alive, but more than that, the NW has had a guest who knows of (and may have met) Ramsey in the past. Cregan Karstark was in the ice cells. Wick Wittlestick and the stewards were his jailers. I suspect that Cregan would have told them anything he knew if it might harm Lord Snow.

I can’t see Ramsey making any of these requests if Roose was still alive and only one of them if Roose was dead. The Queen, her daughter, her men, Mel, Val and all the wildlings are all folks that the NW deadenders want to encourage to leave The Wall. This line seems design to encourage them to get away before “Ramsey” comes for them. It also seems design to encourage Jon to act—and any action because of this letter would trigger his assassination.

For me, this last graph confirms that Ramsey did not write the letter. The reference to “black crows” is a giveaway as is the bit about the ‘wildling babe’. As for the “I want my reek”, I think that as the elder son, Cregan Karstark would have been with his father at the Dreadfort when Ramsey showed off Theon/Reek to all those present. Cregan’s father was on the dais with Ramsey, but the Hall was filled. And if by some chance Cregan wasn’t there, his father would have told him about it. It is completely plausible that the NW deadenders would have known about Reek and included him in the letter. I think the reference to Reek being missing came from conversations with Cregan where they learned Reek is Theon. I think it was included in case Jon also knew that from Cregan or another source. If they thought Jon might know Reek is Theon it would have been another prod in the letter to get him to break his vows.

The title is designed to kick Jon in the gut and it worked.

Now, I could be wrong. I stand to be corrected. And I will be when WoW comes out. Still, I don’t think the Pink Letter ever took a ride on raven’s wings.

Cheers

I like this theory. I have been thinking for a while now that Alliser Thorne was involved in the letter in some way. I think that he could be worked into your well thought out theory.

I was thinking that he could have escaped or killed the rangers he was sent out with and been let back through the Wall by one of the conspirators. Have even been thinking that he may have travelled to Winterfell after this. This provides another way for all of the information to be available to the NW deadenders (love the term by the way).

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Mance is dead. Stannis is in the gibbet hanging with the skins of the women around him. and it would be an awesome plot twist if Ramsay turned him into Reek 3.

Considering Stannis' character/personality I sincerely doubt he'd allow himself to be taken alive, it just doesn't seem like a very Stannis thing to do- he wouldn't want to give his enemy a hostage, he wouldn't want to negotiate any sort of accord, he either wins or he loses. I also find it hard to believe that Mance is dead, it would be a very quick death for such a skilled character IMO, especially considering the situation inside WF. As for Reek 3, it's borderline impossible but Roose would make a fitting Reek for Ramsay. :P

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In one of the threads it has been suggested (apologies, forgot by whom) that Roose makes a tactical retreat to the Dreadfort with his most loyal men once he has sent the Freys, Manderleys and Ramsay after Stannis because Winterfell is hard to defend as broken as it is.

If this happened, Mance would be in a situation to write the letter. He knows everything, and the cage he is trapped in is Winterfell itself. He can't go back to the wall, nor reveal himself to Stannis should Stannis succeed. So he needs Jon.

When Jon met Mance for the first time he convinced him by asking "And where did they seat the bastard?", so Mance addressing Jon as Bastard is a reference to this.

Since Mance doesn't know what Stannis is up to, he gets fooled by the Manderleys returning with some Karstark heads and Stannis' sword. Lord Manderley won't reveals his plans to Mance either, so Mance must think Stannis is dead, and he is in Winterfell surrounded by northerners whose loyalities are unclear. So he can only trust his spearwives, its their skins that keep him warm, figuratively.

As explained by many before, Mance is also the only one who would need all the hostage asked for in the letter. He basically asks for his family, Melisandre (to free him from the ruby), and Selyse and Shireen. If he is convinced that Stannis is dead, Shireen is the heir and could pardon him. And I guess Mance is self-confident enough to trick a little girl into doing this.

Finally, about the wax and the ravens: if Roose left for the Dreadfort, Mance could find a scrap of pink wax somewhere or create some. And there are ravens in Winterfell, and mance was with the Night Watch once. He might have learned how to use ravens there. Or the Manderleys returning with Stannis' sword send a raven to the wall and Mance exchanges the letter. Or offers to write it, and since many are illiterate, he writes what he wants.

Oh, and Mance rayder's name is the only name in the letter except for Ramsay's in the signature.

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The only people who we can say definitively know all the information in the letter are Theon, Asha and Bolton. Obviously some others might have learned the information off screen.

Then the words came spilling out of Theon in a rush. He tried to tell her all of it, about Reek and the Dreadfort and Kyra and the keys, how Lord Ramsay never took anything but skin unless you begged for it. He told her how he'd saved the girl, leaping from the castle wall into the snow. "We flew. Let Abel make a song of that, we flew." Then he had to say who Abel was, and talk about the washerwomen who weren't truly washerwomen.

I don't know why or how but I'm kind of leaning towards Asha sending the letter.

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