Theon Sample Chapter; The Letter sent to Jon (Spoilers)

[ab aeterno]

The only people who we can say definitively know all the information in the letter are Theon, Asha and Bolton. Obviously some others might have learned the information off screen.

I don't know why or how but I'm kind of leaning towards Asha sending the letter.

The idea that Asha wrote the letter keeps cropping up. She would certainly be an unconventional choice, but she does have all the necessary information, and this type of scheming would fit her personality better than the way she has been acting since being captured IMO. I haven't been able to work out exactly what she would indend to achieve with the letter though; it seems that she wouldn't be able to benefit from the hostages unless she were in WF, and if she were, she would either be surrounded by Bolton men, Stark supporters or Stannis and his men. I could picture it being a ploy to get herself and Theon out of trouble, but I'm not sure how it would ever work for them. I like the idea, but I'm just not sure that it fits the situation, and what she would stand to gain from it. Any ideas?

[Matheus Nistal]

I see people here considering Stannis a master-schemer and IMO this is just not Stannis. He is not a player in the game of thrones, he is just a piece. He is, probably, still alive just because he has Mel at his side, else Robb, Renly, Joffrey even Balon would still be alive and a great threat.

The thing about the letter: IMO the author is Ramsay. He thinks the Karstarks killed Stannis, because the trick Stannis will make with the ravens. The Bastard of Dradfort is the only one who has clear motives, the only one who has sent letters to avoid a battle, to prepare a trap. Stannis would never act so boldly with so much at risk. I am pretty sure about this. What was giving me second thoughts were: the detail of seven days of battle, the "I want my Reek back" and the wax thing.

First, seven days of battle. Why say seven days of battle? If he is making this up, saying seven days of battle gives a bit of nobility, strength in it.Only a few battles in this war has took seven days, most only happen in less then a day, I guess. And more, seven days, seven gods. It's against the whole: "one god, one realm, one king" speech.

Second, "I want my Reek back". That's the big question, where is Theon at this point of the history? And more important where does Ramsay think Theon is? I don't believe Theon is dead, GRRM wouldn't make all these chapters since the last fall of winterfell if all his doings would be rescue a false Arya, and he wouldn't be bringing his plot close to Bran and BR just to kill him. In some way I think Theon is on his way to the wall and beyond it. He is being sent to Jon, or somehow directly to Bran. But, what does Ramsay thinks? My guess is that the letter Stannis sent Ramsay pretending to be Karstark says that Theon, and false-Arya are going to the Wall, or they were with the Umbers and gone directly to the Wall, something like that, while, at least false-Arya is safe at Stannis side. It is plausible to send both of then to the wall, Ramsay would believe. Theon to get justice from "the last stark" and false-Arya to reunite with hers half-brother. And THIS may be the reason for the letter, he doesn't want Reek dead, he want him alive and in pain. Sending the letter might intimidate Jon and all the dynamic of the Wall, the delicate peace between crows and wildling. (Wich will be, IMO the whole point of Jon's death, a war under the Wall between everybody, wildlings X queen's men X crows X Ramsey and all this with the Others. I have a pretty wild guess that the Wall will fall in the next book and the Others will take over a great part of the realm.)

The wax thing: when I read the book a couple weeks ago, I had the impression that the absence of the official seal, was a signal of disrespect, the same kind that got him address the letter to Bastard, not Jon Snow. For me he wanted express his scorn, his disdain for the bastard that is Jon Snow. If it is someone sending the letter in Ramsay's place it's a huge mistake and a pretty dumb one to try to pretend he is a Bolton and don't think about the seal.

[shk12344]

I see people here considering Stannis a master-schemer and IMO this is just not Stannis.

That's my thought as well. I just finished reading the Dance With Dragons (and excerpt from The Winds Of Winter) and there is nothing to suggest that Stannis is Vary/Littlefinger reborn. He is a military guy who wants to defeat ALL his opponents in the battlefield, not scheme his way into Iron Throne. Remember he refuse to consider alliance with either Renly and Rob, when it would have been beneficial to ponder such alliance.

There is no reason to believe that letter was written by anyone else but Ramsay.

[ab aeterno]

I see people here considering Stannis a master-schemer and IMO this is just not Stannis. He is not a player in the game of thrones, he is just a piece. He is, probably, still alive just because he has Mel at his side, else Robb, Renly, Joffrey even Balon would still be alive and a great threat.

Just to point out, I don't think you ought to dismiss people as players just because they're not schemers. They're absolutely players, everyone with the intention of getting on of controlling the Iron Throne or their own kingdom is a player. The difference is that some are very good at it- Varys, LF, Tyrion, while some are pretty poor at it- Stannis, Ned, and Cersei. Just because the weapons of people like Stannis are brute force and direct action whereas the more effective ones utilize manipulation, subtlety and behind thes scenes action. Nobody controls Stannis, not even Mel- he left her behind for the Blackwater and at the Wall- that doesn't mean he can't be played, but he's not just a piece for the other players IMO. I won't go any deeper because this is for another thread, but IMO Varys and LF are playing a meta-game of thrones while everybody else plays the regular game.

[Lord Martin]

I still think its Ramsay. The similarity in language could also be explained because Reek (Theon) has come to speak like Ramsay after spending so much time together.

The Mance issue is the sticky wicket for me. I suppose if a spear wife survived she could add to the narrative.

Stannis is a distant third IMO for authorship of the letter. I think Mel is more likely than Stannis but Ramsay is 90% likely the culprit.

[Matheus Nistal]

I mean, only someone like Littlefinger or Varys or even Tyrion would plot something as elaborate like this, and if this kind a person did something like that, all the bets are off to know who is this person or what he plans to get with this. Even someone as cunning as Mance, wouldn't do something like that, and I don't think he would want to. All his point of being King-Beyond-The-Wall was bringing the wildlings across the Wall and that has been done.

A name that I think would be plausible is Lady Dustin, she seems to be the kind of person who could have this attitude, and just a little of her has been shown in the history, even so enough to show us that she will be important. She will be part of something big. But even so I believe the letter is from Ramsay.

[ab aeterno]

I mean, only someone like Littlefinger or Varys or even Tyrion would plot something as elaborate like this, and if this kind a person did something like that, all the bets are off to know who is this person or what he plans to get with this. Even someone as cunning as Mance, wouldn't do something like that, and I don't think he would want to. All his point of being King-Beyond-The-Wall was bringing the wildlings across the Wall and that has been done.

A name that I think would be plausible is Lady Dustin, she seems to be the kind of person who could have this attitude, and just a little of her has been shown in the history, even so enough to show us that she will be important. She will be part of something big. But even so I believe the letter is from Ramsay.

Maybe. I still think there is more to Mance than meets the eye, and I think he is one of the more plausible authors, along with Ramsay, Stannis (or someone with Stannis.) Not sure about Lady Dustin personally. I'm not sure if she is in a position to know all the details. Ramsay having written the letter requires the assumtion that Mance or one of the spearwives has been tortured for the information and that Stannis has played some sort of trick or deception on Ramsay. That's partly why I'm partial to the idea that Mance wrote it. It requires the fewest assumptions, I think. Correct me if I am wrong though.

[David bc]

I think Mel wrote the letter. She is the only one who has the ability to obtain all of this knowledge. Ramsay detests the word bastard, yet it is used sooo many times in the letter. ( think of the one word you hate to be called, you never say it for fear of putting it in your enemies head.)

I'm trying to fi d a motive for this, and the only thing I can think of is that Mel can sense that Stannis needs aid. and the only way to get Jon to break his vows is through calculated deception... Something Mel is a pro at.

[ab aeterno]

I suppose I could go along with something like that. At least as likely as some of the usual suspects.

[Azor Azai]

The letter was Ramsey's, he knows about Mance and who Mance is because he flayed and tortured the washerwomen. Everybody talks eventually under torture. First the prepared lies come out, then the desperate lies, and the the truth spurts out like blood from four of Wyman Manderley's five chins.

He's not bluffing, he's arrogant. He is "The Lord of Winterfell" and he won't be denied. However, I believe he is operating under false information fed to him by the same fellow that served up Frey Pie, that's right, Mr. Wyman Manderley. I think we'll see Stannis allied secretly with him, feign his death, and make a surprise attack that bypasses the walls of WF, whether through the crypts (Weirwood Tunnels?) or by someone in the castle opening one gate or another.

[Saturno]

Surely Stannis is not on the same level as Varys and Littlefinger, but he is no fool at all on deception and manipulation. I would never put him on Eddard's level and I really do not think Stannis is poor on intrigues and schemming, he is just too dutiful and stubborn to do them properly. Unlike Ned he is very aware of the dangers the court can bring and the enemies he can make. Jon Arryn and Stannis were the first ones to think that was something amiss in King's Landing.

And who could outwit or deceive Stannis? I can think in a few names: Tyrion, Varys, Littlefinger... Mopatis maybe. But every one of these guys is a master of cunning and/or deception.

IMO Stannis stands side-by-side with Tywin Lannister when we are talking about warfare and intrigue.

[JP Dayne]

king stannis was the first to notice something queer about joffrey tommen and myrcela not look alike any of the baratheons.

so yea, portrayin the mannis as a "stupid" person is a desperate move by the haters

[Matheus Nistal]

king stannis was the first to notice something queer about joffrey tommen and myrcela not look alike any of the baratheons.

so yea, portrayin the mannis as a "stupid" person is a desperate move by the haters

I don't hate Stannis neither think he is stupid , I think he is great, one of the most human and profound character in the book, I just think it is different, to notice something is queer and make a huge plan and a million assumptions to get something that only god(s) knows, and even so, I don't think it worked, clearly his plan wasn't to kill Jon. I don't think he doesn't make plains or isn't clever, I just don't think he has that much vision to prevent people reactions and stuff. I think it is too complex and too bold. Nothing in his character so far indicates something like that.

[ab aeterno]

I don't hate Stannis neither think he is stupid , I think he is great, one of the most human and profound character in the book, I just think it is different, to notice something is queer and make a huge plan and a million assumptions to get something that only god(s) knows, and even so, I don't think it worked, clearly his plan wasn't to kill Jon. I don't think he doesn't make plains or isn't clever, I just don't think he has that much vision to prevent people reactions and stuff. I think it is too complex and too bold. Nothing in his character so far indicates something like that.

I think the point is that he isn't a manipulator/schemer, does that sound about right? That's not to say he couldn't/doesn't employ subterfuge, misdirection, or other indirect tactics, but they're not his standard M.O. and he is unlikely to be able to lean to heavily on those tactics because they don't suit his skill-set/ disposition.

[Catacombs]

Surely Stannis is not on the same level as Varys and Littlefinger, but he is no fool at all on deception and manipulation.

One thing about Stannis is that he takes advantage of the resources that he has, no matter how bleak his current situation might be. And if a person helps Stannis with useful council to get out of a fix, he tends to work more and more with them. This was true of Davos. Mel helped Stannis some, but other times her advice was iffy. I'm not certain that he trusts her as much as he once did. Jon's council was very useful and I could see Stannis wishing he had him nearby.

The idea that Stannis wrote the Pink Letter out of a desire to pull Jon from the Wall and into the fight has some merit. It is a solid PL theory, but I doubt that Stannis would have come up with it on his own. OTOH, he does have some new potential advisers who might have encouraged it. That would be the Greyjoys, Asha and Theon.

In ADWD, Asha offered Stannis her allegiance and her wits. At the end of the WoW Theon chapter she offers Stannis blunt advice about the best way for him to kill Theon. Stannis would hear the truth in it it and see a reflection of Davos' honesty in her words. He has trusted the council of women before (Mel) and it doesn't seem to be a stretch that he would see value in Asha as well. Theon, Stannis and Asha know everything that was in the letter and there is a motive of sorts (pulling Jon and the Wildlings away from the Wall to avenge/support Stannis).

I think Stannis would have the wits to do this if the option was presented to him. He is at his best surviving a tough situation and making the best out of limited resources. He is one character that I've found to be consistent and yet full of surprises.

They might not be behind the Pink Letter, but I think Asha has joined Team Stannis.

As for Theon, I think he will die soon and that Asha wanted to buy him a clean death as opposed to being a burnt offering for the Red God. OTOH, I would be fine if Theon somehow survived...

[Matheus Nistal]

One thing about Stannis is that he takes advantage of the resources that he has, no matter how bleak his current situation might be. And if a person helps Stannis with useful council to get out of a fix, he tends to work more and more with them. This was true of Davos. Mel helped Stannis some, but other times her advice was iffy. I'm not certain that he trusts her as much as he once did. Jon's council was very useful and I could see Stannis wishing he had him nearby.

The idea that Stannis wrote the Pink Letter out of a desire to pull Jon from the Wall and into the fight has some merit. It is a solid PL theory, but I doubt that Stannis would have come up with it on his own. OTOH, he does have some new potential advisers who might have encouraged it. That would be the Greyjoys, Asha and Theon.

In ADWD, Asha offered Stannis her allegiance and her wits. At the end of the WoW Theon chapter she offers Stannis blunt advice about the best way for him to kill Theon. Stannis would hear the truth in it it and see a reflection of Davos' honesty in her words. He has trusted the council of women before (Mel) and it doesn't seem to be a stretch that he would see value in Asha as well. Theon, Stannis and Asha know everything that was in the letter and there is a motive of sorts (pulling Jon and the Wildlings away from the Wall to avenge/support Stannis).

I think Stannis would have the wits to do this if the option was presented to him. He is at his best surviving a tough situation and making the best out of limited resources. He is one character that I've found to be consistent and yet full of surprises.

They might not be behind the Pink Letter, but I think Asha has joined Team Stannis.

As for Theon, I think he will die soon and that Asha wanted to buy him a clean death as opposed to being a burnt offering for the Red God. OTOH, I would be fine if Theon somehow survived...

And when Jon cross several miles into a snow storm, confront all his brothers, and an army stronger then his supposed wildling army, and say 'fuck you' to all his vows, then what? See Stannis alive and be at his side, no matter the sacrifices that have been done based on a lie? And be at his side no matter what? I don't think so. And I don't think Stannis would think so eighter to plan this.

As for Asha joining Team-Stannis, I think it extremely plausible, at least for now. If I remember well she had some plan for her life that hasn't been revealed before she being captured, so I don't know for sure.

[Sellmysword]

No, the mention of Mance makes this a virtual impossibility.

It would pretty much kill Stannis' characterization. Not only would he resort to this underhanded trickery and lies in writing the letter to Jon, but it would also mean he was in on the Mance deception from the beginning (another tearing down of Stannis' characterization). And even if you can reconcile all of that with him, then he somehow needs to learn that Mance has been sent to Winterfell, a mission that he isn't dispatched on until well after Stannis is gone from the wall.

Really, because I'm pretty sure that employing the use of magic to have a shadow sneak up behind your own brother the day before a battle could also be construed as underhanded trickery and lies...but that's just me. OP has a point, although I still am skeptical on the possibility of the letter being written by Stannis. However, I do believe that about 85% of the letter is complete lies. Really hope Mance is alive personally.

[MtnLion]

Theon, Stannis and Asha know everything that was in the letter and there is a motive of sorts (pulling Jon and the Wildlings away from the Wall to avenge/support Stannis).

I don't think that this statement is supported anywhere in the text. Theon only knows Abel, not Mance.

[Jon Reborn]

Was once a supporter of Thorne as the author of the pink letter, but now may be leaning more towards Ramsay.

I think the gift chapter does give the clue - Stannis' planned deception.

It makes sense that he uses the ravens and maybe Manderly (or another agent) to deceive Ramsay. Ramsay thinks he has won the battle and is now desperate to get his Reek and wife (claim to Winferfell) back.

As far as Mance and the spearwives...

Could be he only caught one and the rest escaped, or could be it happened as stated in the letter.

I agree with those who think the letter is not from Stannis. Stannis agreed to off Renly because he was claiming what was Stannis' by right. Jon helped Stannis with good, honest advice.

Good point about Theon not knowing Mance. This would mean that Asha and Stannis didn't know he was there either.

[imbs]

Idk if this has been brought up or discussed, but when considering whether Stannis did or did not write this letter maybe Melisandre is a factor? She has "seen the path to victory in her flames" before, maybe she did this time and advised Stannis of a letter he must write to lord snow before they set out? This is the only way i see Stannis writing such a letter myself, but i could easily be wrong.