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R+L=J v.30


Xray the Enforcer

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Interesting points, Lady Octarina.

There is one thing I always wondered, and I am not sure whether the question has been answered before, but how did Ned travel back to Winterfell with baby Jon? I assume he went by boat because he didn't pick up Catelyn along the way home (if he traveled by land he should have since they were married), yet he didn't return to King's Landing with baby Jon to hire a boat there, as far as I am aware. Wouldn't that mean he took ship in Dorne? If he did, wouldn't Doran be aware of the fact? It's not every day practice that the Warden of the North sails from a Dornish harbor. Or are there other harbors between Dorne and King's Landing where Ned could've hired a ship?

I always assumed he took a boat in Starfall (look at the Daynes' involvement again! =P), for it would be too dangerous to be seen with a baby around the same region Lyanna was kept. I think eventually the Martells would have heard that Ned hopped on a boat in Dorne, but I don't think that would be much of a surprise once they learned Lyanna had been kept in the border. What I find much harder to believe is that they weren't aware of Lyanna at the Tower of Joy and the certain constant movement between the ToJ and Starfall for supplies, news, and whatever else.

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Not enough talk on the water gardens. Those were mentioned and I have a feeling they will come back to explain some story in the future. So I do agree with Lady Octarina's theory there.

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And as to the argument that agreeing to let Rhaegar marry another would jeopardize Elia's position and put her children at peril, well... As I said above, opposing him would be worse, for Rhaegar would cease to trust her and she wold have no one but her Dornish family members to protect her against any plans. Remember how the Dornish are all compared to snakes? They're certainly more cunning than to let that happen. As to her children, one can argue that they would be at peril anyway - I mean, if Rhaegar didn't marry Lyanna, any family that managed to get a high position in King's Landing could plan Aegon's and Rhaenys' deaths, even Elia's, anyway, so that Rhaegar would marry some other girl that would produce him heirs. I'd say that if Rhaegar had not one, but two wifes, the chances of that happening are slimmer, for they would have to kill many more people, and there's no way they could do that without raising suspiscions. If anything, Lyanna as second queen would actually protect them, for the only ones interested if Elia's fall would be the Starks, and, as people will never cease to repeat in these forums, the Starks were known for their honor, so...

Tywin, IMO, was waiting for Aerys to die in some way and Elia to die in childbirth, making way for Cersei to become Queen and him returning to be the Hand.

Lady Octarina, I think you're completely right!!

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So, Rhaegar should have anticipated a war over a crown of roses, when neither the Starks nor Baratheons called their banners over a kidnapped girl and murdered lord and his heir?

Not necessarily, but he should know that was irresponsible. There was no point in calling the banners for Lyanna because:

a) She was a hostage;

B) They didn't knew where she was.

But as soon as Rhaegar resurfaced, there would be at best, a duel. Like I said, Robert HAS TO FIGHT, even if he didn't liked Lyanna- it's a matter of honor and survival.

Rather pragmatic, I'd say. She is, after all, Doran's sister. The odds are against her - sickly, unloved, infertile. Yet, as Barristan notes, she was witty and Rhaegar was fond of her, even though he didn't love her. What better way to ensure her position than swallow her pride and support Rhaegar in securing his succession line? If she plays cleverly, he will feel indebted to her, she might play his feeling of guilt towards her, and if she maintains good relationship with the second wife and her offspring, she greatly reduces any risk to her own. Add to it that Rhaegar is a paragon of chivalry virtues, Lyanna is from the family reknown for strong adherence to honour - these do not seem to be the people who would try to set aside Aegon's claim (now, Cersei and Lannisters would be a different kettle of fish in this respect)

Again, the risk is not necessarily Rhaegar himself, and maybe not even the Starks themselves- although if Elia trusted her life and the life of her son to a family she never met based on reputation alone, that is stupid.

Who's to say that the second son wouldn't want the throne? If he called the Starks to war, would they refuse? I doubt it- specially if Brandon was Lord of Winterfell.

Again, there's absolutely nothing to be gained, and everything to be lost.

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There is one thing I always wondered, and I am not sure whether the question has been answered before, but how did Ned travel back to Winterfell with baby Jon? I assume he went by boat because he didn't pick up Catelyn along the way home (if he traveled by land he should have since they were married), yet he didn't return to King's Landing with baby Jon to hire a boat there, as far as I am aware. Wouldn't that mean he took ship in Dorne? If he did, wouldn't Doran be aware of the fact? It's not every day practice that the Warden of the North sails from a Dornish harbor. Or are there other harbors between Dorne and King's Landing where Ned could've hired a ship?

It is important to remember we don't know if Ned travels to Winterfell with Jon. All we know is that Jon is there with his wet nurse when Catelyn and Robb arrive. I'd argue that it is likely Jon is taken by someone else to Winterfell - Howland Reed the most likely candidate. Why? Because, we know Ned travels to King's Landing and tells Robert about Lyanna's death, and if you think Jon is Rhaegar's son it is the last place Ned would want Jon to be. Given Ned last experience in King's Landing - leaving there after fighting with Robert over Tywin's display of Rhaegar's family's bodies - it makes no sense for Ned to risk Jon's life without knowing what Robert's reaction would be. He would also be drawing attention to Jon in the eyes of the other members of Robert's court (Varys, Pycelle, and possible Tywin if he is still there.) Not a good idea. Yet we know Ned himself goes there. So, if I'm right, who has Jon while Ned brings his news to Robert? I think Howland Reed is the only realistic candidate for someone Ned would trust with Jon's safety.

We also know a few other things about Ned's travels during this period. We know he goes to Starfall and returns Dawn to the Daynes (obviously after the Tower of Joy events.) We know Ned does not bring his army into Dorne with him (Martin tells us so.) And, finally, we know there is a very different opinion between the people of Starfall and Ned's troops as to who is Jon's mother. The people of Starfall accept the story that Wylla is Jon's mom (the young Lord of Starfall tells Arya this) and this implies that Wylla arrives there with Jon (before Ned arrives or in his company.) Ned's troops believe Jon is Ashara's son (they don't even seem to know of Wylla's existence) and this implies Ned travels back to his army (last known to be in Storm's End) with Jon after traveling to Starfall.

All of which leads me to the following guess concerning Ned's return: he travels with at least Jon, Howland Reed, and Wylla to Starfall from the Tower of Joy. Ned, Jon, and Reed travel, most likely by ship, back to Storm's End. Then Ned and his troops travel back to King's Landing, while Howland and Jon travel back to Winterfell - again most likely by ship. A non-Wylla wet nurse is picked up along the way (most likely in Starfall) who accompanies Jon back to Winterfell.

Anyway, that's my two cents on the topic. Martin has said we will learn more. Which implies this is important, but the details can't be revealed just yet.

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All of which leads me to the following guess concerning Ned's return: he travels with Jon, Howland Reed, Wylla to Starfall from the Tower of Joy. Ned, Jon, and Reed travel, most likely by ship, back to Storm's End. Then Ned and his troops travel back to King's Landing, while Howland and Jon travel back to Winterfell - again most likely by ship. A non-Wylla wet nurse is picked up along the way (most likely in Starfall) who accompanies Jon back to Winterfell.

My only problem with your suggestion is that it would have raised suspicions for the Lord of Greywater Watch to accompany a bastard child to Winterfell. Why would he do that? A bastard wouldn't need protection or an "honor guard" or something, even if he was a child of the Lord of Winterfell. Which leads me (if we accept Jon went ahead with Reed while Ned stopped by King's Landing) to think one of the following is more likely:

1 - Jon was sent to Winterfell with only the wetnurse and a few guards. The less likely, for I think Ned would want to send him with someone he had absolute trust.

2 - Howland and Ned agreed to meet somewhere safe in the North that was not Winterfell; Howland arrived there with Jon, the wetnurse and a few men by ship, and Ned met them a few days or weeks later, then took him to Winterfell.

3 - Howland took him to Greywater Watch, a secluded place where he would be safe, and later, on his way back, Ned met them there and accompanied the boy to Winterfell. Let's not forget the crannogmen seem to know more of what goes on than the rest of the realm and yet they keep to themselves; so, the secret would be safe.

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My only problem with your suggestion is that it would have raised suspicions for the Lord of Greywater Watch to accompany a bastard child to Winterfell. Why would he do that? A bastard wouldn't need protection or an "honor guard" or something, even if he was a child of the Lord of Winterfell. Which leads me (if we accept Jon went ahead with Reed while Ned stopped by King's Landing) to think one of the following is more likely:

1 - Jon was sent to Winterfell with only the wetnurse and a few guards. The less likely, for I think Ned would want to send him with someone he had absolute trust.

2 - Howland and Ned agreed to meet somewhere safe in the North that was not Winterfell; Howland arrived there with Jon, the wetnurse and a few men by ship, and Ned met them a few days or weeks later, then took him to Winterfell.

3 - Howland took him to Greywater Watch, a secluded place where he would be safe, and later, on his way back, Ned met them there and accompanied the boy to Winterfell. Let's not forget the crannogmen seem to know more of what goes on than the rest of the realm and yet they keep to themselves; so, the secret would be safe.

All of which are certainly possible scenarios but I don't have a problem seeing Howland Reed showing up with just Jon and a wet nurse that you have. The young Reeds don't show up with any escort or fanfare when they come to Winterfell in A Clash of Kings, and we know Howland travelled alone in the days before the tourney at Harrenhal. In fact, it wouldn't surprise me to find out no one at Winterfell even recognized Reed other than Benjen. The crannogmen are hardly known outside of their swamps except as part of the folklore concerning the Neck. Anyway, all these seem possible and I'm dying to know more. To me the important things, aside from the general order of Ned's travels, are who thinks who is Jon's mom and the unlikelihood of Ned taking Jon to King's Landing.

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All of which are certainly possible scenarios but I don't have a problem seeing Howland Reed showing up with just Jon and a wet nurse that you have. The young Reeds don't show up with any escort or fanfare when they come to Winterfell in A Clash of Kings, and we know Howland travelled alone in the days before the tourney at Harrenhal. In fact, it wouldn't surprise me to find out no one at Winterfell even recognized Reed other than Benjen. The crannogmen are hardly known outside of their swamps except as part of the folklore concerning the Neck. Anyway, all these seem possible and I'm dying to know more. To me the important things, aside from the general order of Ned's travels, are who thinks who is Jon's mom and the unlikelihood of Ned taking Jon to King's Landing.

You just got me thinking... One of the most-used counters against the hypothesis that Benjen knows about R+L=J is that Ned would never have told him. But what if Howland Reed told Benjen? For all we know, the Reed children seem pretty oblivious to Ned's tight-fisted approach to information about Harrenhal and the war...

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But as soon as Rhaegar resurfaced, there would be at best, a duel. Like I said, Robert HAS TO FIGHT, even if he didn't liked Lyanna- it's a matter of honor and survival.

I don't see any basis for the idea that Robert would've had to fight, at least not immediately. There are other, less violent avenues for exacting compensation. Only once those avenues had been exhausted would fighting be the only option.

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I don't see any basis for the idea that Robert would've had to fight, at least not immediately. There are other, less violent avenues for exacting compensation. Only once those avenues had been exhausted would fighting be the only option.

Robert's preferred problem solving technique was violence. It was just his personality. Sure there may have been smarter ways to handle things, but that wouldn't have been Robert. Robert, being Robert, had to fight.

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Robert's preferred problem solving technique was violence. It was just his personality. Sure there may have been smarter ways to handle things, but that wouldn't have been Robert. Robert, being Robert, had to fight.

Yes, but the point I was addressing was the idea that fighting was Robert's only option. That simply isn't true.

As for Robert choosing to fight Rhaegar, I think that's partly why Rhaegar and Lyanna chose to hide out for a little while. You can't challenge someone to a duel when they aren't even present.

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Yes, but the point I was addressing was the idea that fighting was Robert's only option. That simply isn't true.

As for Robert choosing to fight Rhaegar, I think that's partly why Rhaegar and Lyanna chose to hide out for a little while. You can't challenge someone to a duel when they aren't even present.

Yes, but the point I was addressing was the idea that fighting was Robert's only option. That simply isn't true.

As for Robert choosing to fight Rhaegar, I think that's partly why Rhaegar and Lyanna chose to hide out for a little while. You can't challenge someone to a duel when they aren't even present.

:agree:

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You just got me thinking... One of the most-used counters against the hypothesis that Benjen knows about R+L=J is that Ned would never have told him. But what if Howland Reed told Benjen? For all we know, the Reed children seem pretty oblivious to Ned's tight-fisted approach to information about Harrenhal and the war...

I've always thought Benjen is one of the few who could have figured it out on his own, without being told by anyone. Knowing his brother, I don't think he would easily accept Ned's story of fathering a bastard. I also think he knew his sister went willingly with Rhaegar. Not too hard to figure it out from there.

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I've always thought Benjen is one of the few who could have figured it out on his own, without being told by anyone. Knowing his brother, I don't think he would easily accept Ned's story of fathering a bastard. I also think he knew his sister went willingly with Rhaegar. Not too hard to figure it out from there.

That always was my explanation, too. I think it's more a possible alterative explanation, not the onyl way things could have worked out.

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I don't see any basis for the idea that Robert would've had to fight, at least not immediately. There are other, less violent avenues for exacting compensation. Only once those avenues had been exhausted would fighting be the only option.

Because it's a matter of strength- a Lord Paramount that lets the man that stole (whether she offered consent or not) his bethroted, deflowered her and got her pregnant (again, whether she consented or not) and does nothing will be seen as weak and someone that can easily be defied, specially if he's a young lord without a very good track record yet like Robert. It would be Tytos Lannister all over again. Challenging Rhaegar is the only way to Robert show his strength.

And, of course, Robert being Robert and not Doran Martell, he would definitively want a duel. It doesn't take a genius to see that.

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I will say it again:

It makes NO SENSE WHATSOEVER for Elia to accept Rhaegar having another wife, specially one from a powerful house. It adds absolutely nothing to her or to the Martells, and puts EVERYTHING at risk, including her life and the lives of her children. What's stopping someone from arranging an "accident" for Aegon or Elia so Lyanna or her son can become first in line? Or to begin a war for Rhaegar's younger son to become King instead over some pretext, like being more popular or "Rhaegar wanted him to rule, since he loved Lady Lyanna best"- after all, that was pretty much how the Blackfyre Rebellion strated.

This theory only exists for Rhaegar apologists to make his actions somewhat acceptable.

I think you are dead wrong. In the HOTU visions dany has, She saw her brother and Elia discussing naming baby aegon. It is clear that Elia has accepted Rhaegar's belief in the prophecy. He pretty much says that there must be a third child. If she accepted that as fact, she would be willing to allow him to marry a second wife in order to bear him a third child since she could not have anymore children.

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Because it's a matter of strength- a Lord Paramount that lets the man that stole (whether she offered consent or not) his bethroted, deflowered her and got her pregnant (again, whether she consented or not) and does nothing will be seen as weak and someone that can easily be defied, specially if he's a young lord without a very good track record yet like Robert. It would be Tytos Lannister all over again. Challenging Rhaegar is the only way to Robert show his strength.

I don't see how this contradicts my point. As I said, there are other avenues to redress grievances. Challenging someone to a duel is just one of them. Demanding more lands or titles is another one. Violence was not the only means for Robert to settle things.

And, of course, Robert being Robert and not Doran Martell, he would definitively want a duel. It doesn't take a genius to see that.

Robert wanting a duel is different from Robert having to call for a duel.

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I've always thought Benjen is one of the few who could have figured it out on his own, without being told by anyone. Knowing his brother, I don't think he would easily accept Ned's story of fathering a bastard. I also think he knew his sister went willingly with Rhaegar. Not too hard to figure it out from there.

:agree: I honestly think that Benjen would have figured it out in a second.

I don't see how this contradicts my point. As I said, there are other avenues to redress grievances. Challenging someone to a duel is just one of them. Demanding more lands or titles is another one. Violence was not the only means for Robert to settle things.

Robert wanting a duel is different from Robert having to call for a duel.

There would be other avenues but I honestly think that a young hothead Robert would have cared. He'd just want to bash Rhaegar's head in. BUT we're all forgetting the presence of Jon Arryn! He would definitely not have let Robert throw a challenge before exhausting the other avenues.

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I think you are dead wrong. In the HOTU visions dany has, She saw her brother and Elia discussing naming baby aegon. It is clear that Elia has accepted Rhaegar's belief in the prophecy. He pretty much says that there must be a third child. If she accepted that as fact, she would be willing to allow him to marry a second wife in order to bear him a third child since she could not have anymore children.

It's not CLEAR at all. So what he named his child Aegon? It like saying that, because Ned name his son Brandon, Catelyn now is an Old Gods worshipper that believes her son is the second coming of Brandon the Builder

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