R+L=J v.31

[rmholt]

As I see it the whole R+L=legit J theory has one unshaken pylon and that is the presence of the 3 KG at the ToJ and especially Hightower’s presence. So people are so unyielding when it comes to this theory basically due to one man’s presence. But why? Because at a certain point Jamie reflects that when Rhaella was abused by her husband Gerold’s Hightower’s answer to Jamie was that although protecting the queen was their “job description”, protecting her from the king was not.

But what if Hightower like others had realized that disposing of Aerys was for the best? Can’t a man change his mind? Can’t a man think for himself and realize that abiding to certain vows isn’t honorable any more if the people that he vows to protect are immoral and dangerous?

But even if that’s overcome then they say that from the ToJ exchange between Eddard and the KG it’s clear that they are saying they hold their vows as KG. Well for me it’s not so clear. I believe they are speaking of a different vow. But even if I am wrong there are other explanations. Aegon could be in that tower, smuggled by Rhaegar himself. This would make more sense to the why the KG fights Eddard. I don’t think that they really believed that he would hurt his sister and nephew especially since he couldn’t know for sure that Lyanna went willingly with Rhaegar. But they had every reason to be afraid for Aegon because even if noble Eddard wouldn’t hurt the boy, others might in the future.

And why was it so important for Eddard to return Dawn before going back to Winterfell? He had a newborn son he had never met, a new wife, he was the heir and lord of Winterfell and he had been fighting for almost two years away from home. Plus, his beloved sister died in his arm which must have devastated him and he had a newly born baby with him and a long journey back before them. But he still chose to go first to Starfall. Why? Maybe because he had promised Lyanna to save Aegon and deliver him to the Daynes.

I see no false with this interpretation. Especially after Eddard saw the slaughtered children in KL he must felt that he should do anything to avoid something like that from happening again.

After reading ADWD again I see that only the Last Hero was mentioned killling Others with dragonsteel (which may be the composition of Dawn) For some reason since the Nights Watch dispatced the Others last time, I thought they all had dragonsteel, but maybe they made do with obsidian. Anyway, Dawn is special, I think even more special than Valyrian steel. Of course he could also have taken an infant there - in fact the story of what happened has Jon at Starfall - whether or not it is a cover story is what is debated.

Possibly some of the arguments over this event address issues that might be irrelevant.

[rmholt]

They are on opposite sides of the war, and they are not going to surrender or swear to Robert so Ned has no choice but to kill them. You could take Lyanna and Jon out of the equation entirely and there would still have been no option but a fight to the death. The kingsguard could have chosen to let Ned visit with his sister first but that would have just delayed the inevitably fight.

Your assumption is that they are not going to surrender. What is the source of this statement. Yeah, they DIDNT surrender, but why not? Especially if Lyanna and Jon are out of the picture. If you take this assumption, which might not be true (two live KG remain to serve Robert, supporting the opposite assumption) any arguments you construct on it are going to be shaky.

[Silent Sparrow]

After reading ADWD again I see that only the Last Hero was mentioned killling Others with dragonsteel (which may be the composition of Dawn) For some reason since the Nights Watch dispatced the Others last time, I thought they all had dragonsteel, but maybe they made do with obsidian. Anyway, Dawn is special, I think even more special than Valyrian steel. Of course he could also have taken an infant there - in fact the story of what happened has Jon at Starfall - whether or not it is a cover story is what is debated.

Possibly some of the arguments over this event address issues that might be irrelevant.

Corrrect me if I'm wrong, but isn't Dawn believed to be forged from a meteorite? I believe 'dragonsteel' is often recognized as Valyrian steel, though I don't remember where that classification first comes from.

[rmholt]

I might be inclined to consider Dayne, as Rhaegar's best friend, to be able to put love above duty, as we have seen a couple of times, but definitely not Hightower, who puts the vow above morality - exactly as the KG are supposed to do, and as we have been led to believe ever since book 1. The vow is paramount to everything. 'Been there myself, albeit just in a game. Not nice, and there is truly no escape, no redefinition of goals.

I will not accept that putting true honor and morality over vows is wrong. That is concrete thinking and leads to trouble - leads to worshipping words instead of the intent of the words. Now, the morality one must follow may not be the same one would follow if not KG but aimed toward preserving the king. But you have to have a moral guide, not just a list of rules to follow.

[rmholt]

Corrrect me if I'm wrong, but isn't Dawn believed to be forged from a meteorite? I believe 'dragonsteel' is often recognized as Valyrian steel, though I don't remember where that classification first comes from.

Jon and Sam guess it is Valyrian steel, but I am not buying it. Meteorites are pretty warm, so I like the idea for Dragonsteel. Also we only have one sword from 8000 years ago that I have seen made of Dragonsteel, used by the Last Hero, and maybe it is Dawn.

[Buried Treasure]

Your assumption is that they are not going to surrender. What is the source of this statement. Yeah, they DIDNT surrender, but why not? Especially if Lyanna and Jon are out of the picture. If you take this assumption, which might not be true (two live KG remain to serve Robert, supporting the opposite assumption) any arguments you construct on it are going to be shaky.

'Our knees do not bend easily'. Where's the assumption in saying the kingsguard were not going to surrender?

[rmholt]

'Our knees do not bend easily'. Where's the assumption in saying the kingsguard were not going to surrender?

They dont bend easily but they might bend. Exhibit A: Selmy. Also this was a dream conversation. They didnt surrender, so by definition, they wouldnt surrender, but not sure how he would know that ahead of time.

[Silent Sparrow]

Two KG survive to serve Robert because Jaime essentially turned his cloak and Selmy, for reasons still unclear to me, bent the knee to Robert. That does not mean that the three at the TOJ would have done the same: the evidence seems to point to the contrary. I don't think there is an assumption in saying they were not going to surrender.

[Buried Treasure]

Ned didn't need to know they wouldn't surrender ahead of time (although he could probably have guessed they would not). He went prepared to fight & kill them; if, instead of moving fighting they'd knelt he would not have killed them. Saying 'our knees do not bend easily' was a pretty clear indication these three individuals were not going to surrender at this time.

I don't know if the 3 at the ToJ ever found out about Selmy's fate but if they had ever learnt he pledged his sword to Robert they would have probably thought it a betrayal of his KG oaths. Not as great a betrayal as Jaime's but a failure nonetheless - even as seeming clearcut oaths as the KG are still open to individual interpretation of duty.

eta. all I'm saying is that these 3 men at that moment in time (ie after Ned had ridden up) had limited options. They could not have left (even if they had been so inclined) because the enemy fighters would not have permitted them. That leaves:

1.surrender (which they say is not something they would do)

2. Fighting a proper defensive battle, using all their advantages (stone tower) to limit the enemy attack and force the enemy to fight one-on-one in the staircase, allowing them to kill all the attackers and remain in custody of Jon.

3. Fight a battle on open ground, which is more honourable but means there is an increased likelihood of the enemies numbers outweighing their superior skill.

That they chose the third option suggests to me that the kingsguard duty of protecting Lyanna and Jon from marauders was completed once Ned and companions arrived. The fight at the ToJ was not about Jon but about the fate of the 3 kingsguard themselves - as they do not kneel or flee & their side has lost the war the only thing left was to die.

[rmholt]

Two KG survive to serve Robert because Jaime essentially turned his cloak and Selmy, for reasons still unclear to me, bent the knee to Robert. That does not mean that the three at the TOJ would have done the same: the evidence seems to point to the contrary. I don't think there is an assumption in saying they were not going to surrender.

I dont find anyplace where it says they arent going to surrender until they actually say it. but perhaps I missed it.

[Silent Sparrow]

I was referring to when they say their knees do not bend easily. It is by no means the strongest case, but I believe the case for them to not surrender is stronger than the case for them to be willing to surrender.

[Buried Treasure]

I dont find anyplace where it says they arent going to surrender until they actually say it. but perhaps I missed it.

There isn't. But as the fighting starts after they say the bit about unbending knees there is no assumption. It's fact they were not going to surrender and Ned knew it when he moved to kill the 3 KG.

[rmholt]

Ned didn't need to know they wouldn't surrender ahead of time (although he could probably have guessed they would not). He went prepared to fight & kill them; if, instead of moving fighting they'd knelt he would not have killed them. Saying 'our knees do not bend easily' was a pretty clear indication these three individuals were not going to surrender at this time.

I don't know if the 3 at the ToJ ever found out about Selmy's fate but if they had ever learnt he pledged his sword to Robert they would have probably thought it a betrayal of his KG oaths. Not as great a betrayal as Jaime's but a failure nonetheless - even as seeming clearcut oaths as the KG are still open to individual interpretation of duty.

eta. all I'm saying is that these 3 men at that moment in time (ie after Ned had ridden up) had limited options. They could not have left (even if they had been so inclined) because the enemy fighters would not have permitted them. That leaves:

1.surrender (which they say is not something they would do)

2. Fighting a proper defensive battle, using all their advantages (stone tower) to limit the enemy attack and force the enemy to fight one-on-one in the staircase, allowing them to kill all the attackers and remain in custody of Jon.

3. Fight a battle on open ground, which is more honourable but means there is an increased likelihood of the enemies numbers outweighing their superior skill.

That they chose the third option suggests to me that the kingsguard duty of protecting Lyanna and Jon from marauders was completed once Ned and companions arrived. The fight at the ToJ was not about Jon but about the fate of the 3 kingsguard themselves - as they do not kneel or flee & their side has lost the war the only thing left was to die.

Personally I find it unlikely, though not impossible, that Ned was traveling with only his 6 buds but that is the core of another debate which is also unsolvable. Even Littlefinger had a significant tail. Not sure if you are suggesting that or only referring to the 7.

I do think your conclusion is interesting as it seems to be the only logical one. but even though it seems logical it doesnt make a whole lot of sense, but chivalry doesnt always make a lot of sense. In GRRMs world, though, grand self sacrifice and other trappings of ideal chivalry on close examination seem to be more the exception than the rule. I must admit that Drogo's bloodriders did their duty and died. Of course they had a big khalasar surrounding them in case one decided he'd rather live and one wonders...what if they had an opportunity to escape? Interesting puzzle. If they had defeated Ned, then what? Or perhaps you are saying it was suicide by Ned + 6? Thanks for all the ideas. They make sense to me anyway.

Marie

[Frey family reunion]

Apparently this is the best thread to put my theory in, even though I've put it in a previous forum.

I agree the mystery is why are three Kingsguards guarding the tower of Joy when Ned and his entourage arrive. I think the bigger mystery is why were they there before the battle of the trident and before the sack of kings landing. Why were they missing from places that the Kingsguards should have been during a rebellion of this magnitude. Why would three kingsguards be guarding the mistress of a prince and their bastard child? Even if you subscribe to the theory that Jon may have been legitimized through Valerian customs of two wives why were they guarding him over the rightful heir to the kingdom, the older child Aegon?

My theory is that even before the sack of kings landing Jon was the rightful heir to the kingdom after Rhaegar. Because Aegon and his sister were not actually Rhaegar's children at all, but the children of Arthur Dayne and Elia Martel, with Rhaegar's full knowledge and blessing.

As a youth Rhaegar is known for his interest in prophecies concerning the prince who is promised. Rhaegar takes a sudden interest in jousting and martial pursuits telling the master at arms that apparently he must master these pursuits (the tournament to Harrenhal is the reason he must prepare). IMO Rhaegar believes that he is the prince that was promised and must first forge lightbringer, but forging does not mean forging an actual sword, it is his duty to conceive the child. I also believe that he is aware of the song of ice and fire, another post in the general discussion does an excellent job of talking about the parallels of fire and ice magic. Fire magic being practiced by the Valyrians, and ice magic being practiced by the first men after coming into contact with the children of the forest. Rhaegar being a pure Valyrian must conceive a child through a representative of the first men. The best and purest representative being from the Stark family.

Unfortunately, for Rhaegar before he can put his plans into motion, he is married to Elia of Dorne in an arranged marriage by his father. The prophecy can not be fulfilled through a child with her. On Elia's side of the equation, we know that she had previously turned down numerous suitors in the past. We also know that she is extremely close with Oberon the red viper who has fathered numerous bastard children. We know that House Dayne is one of Martell's sworn banners and we assume that Elia would know it's most famous member and most famous knight in the seven kingdoms, Arthur Dayne. I believe that theirs was a love affair lasted after her marriage with Rhaegar (remember Aemon the dragonknight was rumored to be the actual father of the queen's child during the time of Aegon IV). In this case however, Rhaegar, while fond of Elia, had no interest her as a wife and likewise Elia has no interest in Rhaegar as a husband. Remember, under Westeros law, a marriage can be set aside if it is never consumated. (Baelor the blessed never consumated his relationship, Maergaery was able to marry Joffrey because she said she had never consumated her marriage with Renly, Tywin bugs Tyrion about him consumating his marriage with Sansa so it can not be set aside). Arthur Dayne, also in love with Elia (remember it was not uncommon for Kingsguards to have secret affairs and the secret is often kept between his brothers) with the blessing of his best friend Rhaegar has both Aegon and his older sister with Ellia (because of Arthur's vows this is the only way they can have a relationship). Likewise for Elia no other man is good enough for her (Arthur is an impossible standard to beat), she probably does not have any personal issues with the idea of bastard children (look to her brother the Red Viper and how close he was with his bastard daughters).

Now, you may ask, how is this going to be kept a secret? Valyrians have a very unique look to them. Ah but Martin explains that by the numerous examples we have of Daynes throughout the book. Eddard Dayne lord of Starfall described as having hair of ash and eyes so blue they are almost purple. Ashara Dayne, Selmy muses that with her face and her eyes should could pass as Daenaerys mother. Darkstar, with his silver hair (with black stripe) and his purple eyes, Arianne believes that their children would be as beautiful as dragon lords.

Now why would it be necessary for Rhaegar not to consumate his marriage with Elia? This goes back to the prophecy of the prince who was promised. Remember the Prince has to forge lightbringer, the sword. But I believe that to forge according to the prophecy was to conceive. Ultimately he needs to plunge his sword into his wife (phallic imagery maybe?) and it takes the sacrifice of her life to create lightbringer. Rhaegar believes that Lyanna must be his wife when he conceives a child. When he conceives Jon with Lyanna, he knows that ultimately this is going to kill her (probably counts for his constant sadness and melancholy), but it is necessary to create the sword (Jon) that the prince will need to fight Other. Remember, according to the prophecy, the previous attempt to forge the sword was thrusting it into the heart of a lion but it resulted in the break of the sword. (I believe that we will find out that it was Rhaegar, not Aerys who impregnated JoAnna with Tyrion, Tyrion is the broken sword ((remember his fondness for dwarves, bastards and broken things? With my theory Tyrion is all three)).

Regardless, one thing that Aegon knew and always knew was that any issue he had with Ellia could not fulfill the prophecy, it had to be an issue with Valyrian and First man. So we get to the tournament at Harrenhal. The tournament was arranged by the Whent family (btw Oswell Whent is one of the kingsguards at the tower of joy). Rhaegar wins the tournament having to best Arthur Dayne in the final match (I believe that Arthur throws this match or otherwise because of his fondness for Rhaegard has always held back) This provides Rhaegar with the opportunity to crown Lyanna as the queen of love and beauty. It also allows Rhaegar to begin a secret courtship. This courtship culminates in the tower of joy. I believe that is where Rhaegar annuls his marriage with Ellia and marries Lyanna. This is done in the presence of the three kingsguard members, who thanks to Arthur Dayne know that Ellias children with him are not Rhaegar's and thus not the actual heirs to the throne. With the marriage to Lyanna, Rhaegar then consumates it, and the Kingsguards remain to guard Lyanna and the actual heir to the kingdom. Rhaegar returns to King's landing tells Jaime before he sets out to the trident that changes will be coming when he gets back. I believe that Rhaegar at this point had decided on removing Aerys, releasing Arthur from his Kingsguard vows, and allowing him and Ellia to return to Dorne with their children. He then plans on revealing that Lyanna is his true wife and Jon as the true heir to the throne. Unfortunately for Rhaegar, Robert's warhammer gets in the way of these plans.

When Ned rides up to the tower of joy, the Kingsguard, now aware that Aerys and Rhaegar are both dead know that their duty is to protect Lyanna's recently born child who is in their eyes the rightful heir to the kingdom. When Ned asks them why they were not with Willem Derry when he smuggled Viserys and Dhaenarys across the sea, they respond that while he is a noble knight, he is not one of them. I.e. Viserys and Daenarys are not the rightful heirs to the kingdom.

Forgive me for the next part of my theory because it goes a little far afield of the topic for this thread, but it is necessary to defend the theory against the biggest piece of evidence against it. When Dany is in the house of the undying she has a vision of Rhaegar speaking to Ellia and her child (Aegon). Ellia asks what they should name the child, and Rhaegar responds with Aegon is a good name for the king. When Ellia asks if he will write a song for him, Rhaegar responds that a song has already been written, the song of ice and fire and he is the prince that was promised. This seems to bust a big hole in my theory, Rhaegar must believe the child is his right? He must also believe that this child with Ellia is the prince that was promised. Then it hit me, Rhaegar was not saying that the child Aegon VI was the prince that was promised, he is saying that Aegon V (who he is naming the child after) was the prince that was promised.

When Ellia is asking if he will write a song about him, she was probably referring to her child (a song about a queen and her lover in the kingsguard) when Rhaegor answers he is referring to Aegon V, his grandfather who perished in summerhall on the day that he was born. When he wrote to Aemon that he believed that Aegon was the prince that was promised he was referring to Aegon V not his child, but Aemon misunderstood.

But you may ask, if Rhaegar "forged" Jon isn't he the Prince that was promised? And how about Daenaerys? Didn't she awaken the dragons from stone why isn't she the prince that was promised? I think the answer is that all three of them are the prince that was promised. A dragon has three heads those heads are Aegon V, Rhaegar, and Daenaerys. They are also the prince that was promised. It begins with Aegon (the Egg), however when he becomes king (the unlikely scenario of fourth son of a fourth son) he can no longer fulfill the prophecy (a prince that was promised not a king). Upon Aegon's death in Summerhall, Rhaegar is born and inherits the mantle of the prince that was promised (and the mantle of the second head). The smoke from summherall is the smoke in th prophecy. Upon Rhaegar's death on the trident, Daenaerys (who imo is in the womb of her mother) inherits the mantle and the third head of the dragon. Remember she is also called the "child of three" in the house of undying not mother of three. She is three persons combined, Aegon, Rhaegar, and Dahnaeres). When she is born the storm sinks the Targarean fleet (salt). Daenaerys later wakes the dragons (from stone, petrified eggs) and she will confront the Other(?) using Jon (lightbringer, the sword in the darkness ect.). Daenaerys is not queen, she is still a princess (prince or princess gender does not matter) since Jon is the rightful heir to the kingdom thus she can still fulfill the prophecy.

[corbon]

They dont bend easily but they might bend. Exhibit A: Selmy. Also this was a dream conversation. They didnt surrender, so by definition, they wouldnt surrender, but not sure how he would know that ahead of time.

As usual, your facts are faulty.

Selmy did not surrender. Selmy was severely wounded (ie probably physically unable to fight any longer) but Robert had Maesters attend him and he recovered. By the time he had recovered the Rebellion was over, the king, his heir, and his heir's heirs dead and a knew King crowned. Robert pardoned Selmy, who then accepted a place in his KG. He never surrendered.

Jaime of course broke his oath. He never technically surrendered either.

[rmholt]

As usual, your facts are faulty.

Selmy did not surrender. Selmy was severely wounded (ie probably physically unable to fight any longer) but Robert had Maesters attend him and he recovered. By the time he had recovered the Rebellion was over, the king, his heir, and his heir's heirs dead and a knew King crowned. Robert pardoned Selmy, who then accepted a place in his KG. He never surrendered.

Jaime of course broke his oath. He never technically surrendered either.

Are you saying Selmy did not bend the knee to Robert? That's what i said, that he bent the knee to Robert. If he didnt, wth was he doing on the KG?

Show me where that is faulty? I never said the word surrender, which is coincidentally the word you seem to have an issue with. Besides if you take 3 wounds and are nursed back to health before you have a chance to not-yield and when you get well you swear your sword to the guy whose army you were fighting it is a little precious to distinguish that from surrendering.

It doesnt strengthen an argument to make it personal with derogatory snarks.

[Dragonfish]

I agree the mystery is why are three Kingsguards guarding the tower of Joy when Ned and his entourage arrive. I think the bigger mystery is why were they there before the battle of the trident and before the sack of kings landing. Why were they missing from places that the Kingsguards should have been during a rebellion of this magnitude. Why would three kingsguards be guarding the mistress of a prince and their bastard child? Even if you subscribe to the theory that Jon may have been legitimized through Valerian customs of two wives why were they guarding him over the rightful heir to the kingdom, the older child Aegon?

This actually isn't a mystery. If Rhaegar ordered them to stay there, they would have. They would not have been in violation of their vows at the time, because Aerys had other Kingsguard with him. It is only after the Sack, when all the other Kingsguard are lost, that their continued presence at the tower becomes a mystery.

Forgive me for the next part of my theory because it goes a little far afield of the topic for this thread, but it is necessary to defend the theory against the biggest piece of evidence against it. When Dany is in the house of the undying she has a vision of Rhaegar speaking to Ellia and her child (Aegon). Ellia asks what they should name the child, and Rhaegar responds with Aegon is a good name for the king. When Ellia asks if he will write a song for him, Rhaegar responds that a song has already been written, the song of ice and fire and he is the prince that was promised. This seems to bust a big hole in my theory, Rhaegar must believe the child is his right? He must also believe that this child with Ellia is the prince that was promised. Then it hit me, Rhaegar was not saying that the child Aegon VI was the prince that was promised, he is saying that Aegon V (who he is naming the child after) was the prince that was promised.

When Ellia is asking if he will write a song about him, she was probably referring to her child (a song about a queen and her lover in the kingsguard) when Rhaegor answers he is referring to Aegon V, his grandfather who perished in summerhall on the day that he was born.

How do you explain Rhaegar's use of the present tense in this scene? If he's referring to Aegon V, then why doesn't he say "he was the prince who was promised"?

When he wrote to Aemon that he believed that Aegon was the prince that was promised he was referring to Aegon V not his child, but Aemon misunderstood.

Aemon was not mistaken. He specifically notes that Rhaegar became convinced that his son Aegon was the PWWP when he saw a comet on the night of his conception. So either Rhaegar went back in time to visit Aegon V's parents on the night of his conception, or Aemon made up that detail, or, more likely, Aemon knew what he was talking about, and Rhaegar really did believe Aegon VI was the PWWP.

Your theory was pretty well written and argued, but I don't think you've adequately addressed these holes. But don't let that discourage you from continuing to post here. :)

[Budj]

snipped

So I like parts of your theory, but I don't think the timeline adds up for Tyrion to be Rhaegars...he would be too young. Tyrion is roughly 27-29 - Rhaegar was ~26 when he died and the rebellion was 14 years ago. It would be an interesting twist that Arthur and Elia had an affair (and the water gardens reference may be the clue to that), but I think one of the biggest counterpoints is one you mentioned in the house of the undying....however....they did say that some of those visions wouldn't have actually happened...or described/represented certain events that didn't actually happen how she sees them. So that conversation COULD have been with Lyanna and Jon, but that would be a stretch.

As far as Dragontamer's points (which align with rmholt's points) I think it just as likely that Ned went to Starfall a) to kill time and make his bastard story believable and more importantly B ) get supplies for a new born baby for the trek home...potentially c being Jon was already at Starfall when Ned found Lyanna.

As for the KG waiting around at the ToJ Lyanna was also sick...meaning the KG had to either wait for her to die or get well enough to travel...and something tells me she was only hanging on long enough to make Ned make a certain promise.

I do agree it isn't an absolutely done deal - but all the current evidence I think points to the general consensus we have come to in this thread.

[Frey family reunion]

This actually isn't a mystery. If Rhaegar ordered them to stay there, they would have. They would not have been in violation of their vows at the time, because Aerys had other Kingsguard with him. It is only after the Sack, when all the other Kingsguard are lost, that their continued presence at the tower becomes a mystery.

How do you explain Rhaegar's use of the present tense in this scene? If he's referring to Aegon V, then why doesn't he say "he was the prince who was promised"?

Aemon was not mistaken. He specifically notes that Rhaegar became convinced that his son Aegon was the PWWP when he saw a comet on the night of his conception. So either Rhaegar went back in time to visit Aegon V's parents on the night of his conception, or Aemon made up that detail, or, more likely, Aemon knew what he was talking about, and Rhaegar really did believe Aegon VI was the PWWP.

Your theory was pretty well written and argued, but I don't think you've adequately addressed these holes. But don't let that discourage you from continuing to post here. :)

First, This is a huge mystery. Remember, a rebellion was happening that could bring down the kingdom. Rhaegar was not the king at the time he was a prince. Aerys would surely not have commanded the kingsguard to be at the tower of joy, in fact if he knew of Lyanna and Jon he probably would have had them killed. The kingsguard is not going to perform an act that they know would directly contradict the will of the king especially if it was to guard the bastard child of the prince's mistress. (Well Arthur maybe, but not Hightower and Whent). They would either be guarding Aegon, or be at the trident. Unless, they knew that Jon was the rightful heir to the kingdom.

Second,because Aegon (his grandfather) was still alive through him. Remember Rhaegar's fascination with Summerhall, he was born on the day Aegon perished in some type of mystical fire. They are both the dragon and the prince that was promised, just like now, Rhaegar and Aegon are still present through Daenaerys. The prince that was promised currently exists through three people who lived during different times, but he connects them all.

Finally, do we know if Rhaegar was referring to a comet on the night of Aegon VI's conception or on the night of Jon's conception? Remember how confused Aemon is at the time he is relating the story to Sam. Sam notes that he goes back and forth between Rhaegar and "Egg". I think the comet might herald the tools of the Other's defeat: Jon Snow and Daenaery's dragons. Also, if Rhaegar just said that a comet came on the night of his son's conception, Aemon would have probably thought that he meant Aegon VI. Going back to the passage in the books, Aemon never says that Rhaegar saw a comet, he says that a comet was seen above king's landing on the night of Aegor's conception. I bet that Rhaegar determined through historical records that a comet was seen on the night of Aegon V conception (remember Aegon V was also convinced at some point that he was the prince that was promised, this might be the reason).

[Frey family reunion]

So I like parts of your theory, but I don't think the timeline adds up for Tyrion to be Rhaegars...he would be too young. Tyrion is roughly 27-29 - Rhaegar was ~26 when he died and the rebellion was 14 years ago. It would be an interesting twist that Arthur and Elia had an affair (and the water gardens reference may be the clue to that), but I think one of the biggest counterpoints is one you mentioned in the house of the undying....however....they did say that some of those visions wouldn't have actually happened...or described/represented certain events that didn't actually happen how she sees them. So that conversation COULD have been with Lyanna and Jon, but that would be a stretch.

Rhaegar was born when Summerhall was destroyed in 259 AL. Tyrion was born in 274 AL. So Rhaegar probably would have been fourteen when he conceived Tyrion. I'm not one hundred percent sold on this either but, it would fit with a lot of the imagery especially in the first book. He would have had the opportunity, Joann would have been in King's landing since Tywin was the hand. Joann I believe was one of the queen's ladies in waiting. All of the ladies in the court were said to be in love with Rhaegar. Could see him seducing her over Aerys at any rate (which is another common theory).Apparently Martin has confirmed that this conversation was between Rhaegar and Ellia. I think they were both talking about two different things in the same conversation (anyone who is married can confirm that this happens). Ellia is talking about her child, Rhaegar is talking about the person who he wants to name the child after.