Win or Loose, is Stannis still doomed?

[Rains]

Winter is coming... and "Autumn's Kiss" is bad enough.

Now, I'm not referring to a ultimate showdown with Dany or Aegon, I'm talking about the few weeks after the battle has been won or lost.

If lost, he's doomed. Simple as that. He may flee and die from the cold, theres no way about it. If he wins, is he also doomed?

Supplies are low, men are tired and the snow storms aren't helping. His base at The Wall is in turmoil and the North might not declare for him if Rickon is rescued. And even if they do declare for him, what then? He's still in the same miserable situation as when he was outside Winterfell. No Great Hearth-Fire is going to change the fact that he's out of food, even with twice the men he's got, all who are bloodies, tired and hungry.

Unless the weather changes for the best, I think winter will get him before any other foe does. If he marches south, he'll be in the same place minus the warmth of Winterfell.

Massey won't come back with x, y and z for a few months, and that is, IF he gets there or comes back.

A lot of ifs and buts, but as it saddens me to say... (I'm a huge Stannis/Davos fanboy) I think the man's fucked.

Unless brighter minds brighten up my day with insightful facts and clues I haven't mentioned or seen. :-)

[THE DOC]

Stannis is Just and driven by duty, would he bend the knee to Danerys? I think he would especially if Dany come to the rescue of the seven kingdom from the others............However i think it is Stannis destiny to die for service to the realm of men. He will save the North from the Boltons and get a Stark back at Winterfell, He will point Melisandre in the right direction of new comming of Azor Ahai (if he hasn't already) he will come to regret being part of Renlys death, He will somehow ensure his daughter prospers whne he is gone and that a Baratheon (poss Gendry) sits at storm end. He has a lot to do but as i said i think he destined to die to........ Davos will outlive him and be one of the big heros of the song!

[Quentyn Baratheon]

Stannis is Just and driven by duty, would he bend the knee to Danerys? I think he would especially if Dany come to the rescue of the seven kingdom from the others

Keep dreaming. Stannis bending the knee will never, EVER happen.

And Dany saving the day, well, I only hope she'll not break your heart too much.

[Lord Varys]

He might very well be doomed in the long run, but if wins the coming battle, and takes Winterfell, my guess is that he will also capture most of the food and provisions Bolton stored in the castle (even if Roose were to escape, he would only leave with a small escort, and with only enough food to sustain them, not with a huge baggage train that would slow him down).

If Stannis holds Winterfell, I could really see him rebuilding the entire castle, weather be damed. The North needs a strong Winterfell in the coming winter as a refuge, and if Stannis wins the coming battle, the Northerners will be his men.

It would be completely out of character for Stannis to march south any time soon. He came north to defend the Realm against the wildlings and Others. He only marched south to defeat his enemies in the North. Stannis most likely is going to dispatch a decent contingent of Northmen to Moat Cailin to defend the North against his enemies down in the south.

He himself will return to Castle Black as soon as possible. Especially if he hears about the Jon Snow situation.

News about the current situation in KL (Kevan's death) should him reach rather late (I don't see any reason why the Tyrells should inform Roose Bolton at once about this development, and the fact that the Grand Maester of the Realm is dead as well, is also going to slow things down). And I'm also quite sure no one in Tommen's administration is going to spread the story about 'Aegon Targaryen', either. Telling anyone about that would be rather stupid, especially since this might not strengthen the tenuous loyalty of the Northmen, nor would they be of any immediate help against Aegon.

We should also keep in mind that winter is now most likely going to shut down most of the ordinary travel as well. Meaning that news would travel north/south of the Neck even more slowly than they did during other seasons. Eastwatch and White Harbor might get the news eventually (especially since winter seems a better season for sea voyages than autumn), but it will take even more time until they reach Winterfell from there.

Anyway, if Stannis fortifies Moat Cailin against the south, he effectively will control the North throughout the whole winter. It would buy more than enough time to consolidate his forces, to await the sellswords he intends the hire.

The only thing that could force Stannis to march south again would be a devastating attack by the Others. And I guess that's coming.

[Rains]

He might very well be doomed in the long run, but if wins the coming battle, and takes Winterfell, my guess is that he will also capture most of the food and provisions Bolton stored in the castle (even if Roose were to escape, he would only leave with a small escort, and only enough food to sustain it, not with a huge baggage train that would slow him down).

If Stannis holds Winterfell, I could really see him rebuilding the entire castle, weather be damed. The North needs a strong Winterfell in the coming winter as a refuge, and if Stannis wins the coming battle, the Northerners will be his men.

It would be completely out of character for Stannis to march south any time soon. He came north to defend the Realm against the wildlings and Others. He only marched south to defeat his enemies in the North. Stannis most likely is going to dispatch a decent contingent of Northmen to Moat Cailin to defend the North against his enemies down in the south.

News about the current situation in KL (Kevan's death) should him reach rather late (I don't see any reason why the Tyrells should inform Roose Bolton at once about this development, and the fact that the Grand Maester of the Realm is dead as well, is also going to slow things down). And I'm also quite sure no one in Tommen's administration is going to spread the story about 'Aegon Targaryen', either. Telling anyone about that would be rather stupid, especially since this might not strengthen the tenuous loyalty of the Northmen, nor would they be of any immediate help against Aegon.

We should also keep in mind that winter is now most likely going to shut down most of the ordinary travel as well. Meaning that news would travel north/south of the Neck even more slowly than they did during other seasons. Eastwatch and White Harbor might get the news eventually (especially since winter seems a better season for sea voyages than autumn), but it will take them until they reach Winterfell from there.

Anyway, if Stannis fortifies Moat Cailin against the south, he effectively will control the North throughout the whole winter. It would buy more than enough time to consolidate his forces, to await the sellswords he intends the hire.

The only thing that could force Stannis to march south again would be a devastating attack by the Others. And I guess that's coming.

Thank god for you. Seriously, I'm worried for the fellow.

[Peasant Rebel Leader]

In real history, wars have never been fought during Winter (in that time), it's simply a logistical impossibility. And even later, Napoleon got real big problems during his Russian Campaign. Thus, the realistic way would be after the battle that things slow down for the rest of the winter and start with spring. Since we know this is going to be a long and harsh or one could even say an otherly winter, the situation will be harsh. It's simply going to be a wait with no movement of armies afterwards. And then the Others will come...

So I withhold any predictions since we know not much about that last variable...

[Tini]

No, I don't think Stannis will alow things to slow down after the battle. If he gains the support of the North, Northern support will give him an edge over his southern opponents in winter time. Considering that the winters down South are much milder than northern winters, that would be the time to strike - especially as nobody will expect that.

[Lord Varys]

Winter will not only slow down men-against-men warfare in the North, but also down in the South. The Golden Company and Aegon will continue their campaign to take King's Landing, but that will be the end, I think. Stopping at Storm's End and waiting for next spring would be rather stupid, I guess.

No one is going to march North during winter, and the capacity of the Vale to join any warfare in the South is already pretty much non-existent. It would be utter stupidity to cross the Mountains of the Moon while the passes are frozen tight.

Their only chance to join any fighting party in the North or the South would be to leave the Vale of Arryn by ship. Which would be possible, but also quite risky and difficult, since as of yet seems that the Arryns have no large standing fleet at Gulltown.

This also indicates for me that Littlefinger's Sansa plot is supposed to come to fruition next spring.

But the Others most certainly are going to thrive during the cold of winter, especially if it's revealed that they originally caused the freak seasons. The questions concerning Stannis's fate right now is:

1. When will the Others strike?

2. Will they successfully breach the Wall, or will they circumvent the Wall by ship and try to destroy the NW from behind like Mance tried to do?

[sumant30]

I still think roose bolton will outwit stannis in the battle of ice as of now as he holds a well garrisoned caslte and stannis freezes himself in the snow.I think roose sent out the warring factions out in open and his bastard will probably march to NW instead on stannis and will split the freys which depends because low frey men will be easy for manderly men or he will split his forces in such a way that he marches with the freys to the wall while he lets manderly man go for stannis, so stannis has no way of knowing that manderly man if they are, are on his side and his deception will lead to manderly forces getting somewhat decimated on learning from surviving ones that, bastard has gone to the wall he will definitely march to the wall to protect his queen and daughter and we will probably have a 2 way battle between wildling+stannis+manderlys against bastard +freys at that time if the wall breaks due to others all is definitely lost for stannis so even though he wins he loses in the end.

The other thing is that if bastard marches on stannis and stannis prevails against the bastard, still stannis has to have some way so that he can get inside the castle otherwise the others will definitely get him.

[Catacombs]

In real history, wars have never been fought during Winter (in that time),

But in ASoIaF battles have been fought and won in Winter. In one of the Davos POVs in ADWD his jailer tells how the Northmen led by Brandon Starke (aka 'Ice Eyes') captured the fortified Wolf's Den at White Harbor in the middle of a harsh winter. It ended with blood sacrifices to the Old Gods. Perhaps Bolton entrails will soon decorate the WF Godswood as a similar offering. I think it is quite possible that Stannis will win and if he does he will have fresh supplies from White Harbor and from Greywater Watch.

I would not be surprised if Howland Reed and his Crannogmen joined Stannis in the coming battle of ice. It is almost impossible to believe that Reed is not aware of situation and planning to get involve (especially as he no longer has to fight the Iron Men).

[Lord Varys]

The Tyrells outnumber the remaining Northern forces about 5:1, if I'm not mistaken, especially since we have to assume that a lot of people are going to die in the Battle of Winterfell. If Stannis wins a decisive victory and kills both Roose and Ramsay, he might have about 7,000 men after the battle, I guess. And not all of them would follow him down south, especially since Stannis himself would know that it would be stupid to take all men with him (which, of course, is going to mean that he won't march south at all).

Stannis would be completely stupid to march through the Neck at this time. He has not enough food for his army, especially if it was to grow down in the Riverlands, even more so since the Riverlands he needed to cross to reach KL are completely ravaged.

The Tyrells and Lannisters would get knowledge of his march way too soon, they would entrap him at a place of their choosing, and then destroy him.

As to Roose's chance of winning the coming battle:

He has already lost. Roose wanted to be smart, he wanted to have 'the high ground' and made Stannis march on him. He tried this two time, first with the Dreadfort and then with Winterfell. But Stannis (and the weather) turned the table on him. Roose sits now with increasingly more pissed bunch of people in a castle, and most of them hate each other more than the so-called enemy. Stannis, on the other hand, has neutralized the Karstark blade at his own neck (which very well could have led to his demise), and is now able to feed Roose misinformation. Even more importantly, Stannis's men are desperate from the hunger and cold, and they are most determined to win. The mountain clan men are apparently glad/ready to die fighting against the Boltons, and Stannis's southron knights only hope of survival is to win the coming battle. The craven POV given to us by Justin Massey might actually work to Stannis's advantage when the battle finally begins. There is no hope left that they could make anything out of their lives if they lose this battle. Determination and desperation are very powerful elements in a battle.

The Northmen on Bolton's side fight for an ill-conceived lie, under the command of a man who betrayed and killed their king and liege lord. They won't die for him, in fact, most of them who are not already plotting betrayal (Lord Wyman Manderly, possibly Hother Umber) won't stick to Roose if things appear as if they could go bad.

Roose and even more so Ramsay do not inspire loyalty in anyone, most likely not even in their very own men. The fact that the Bolton men seem to be a loyal bunch of people mostly has to do with the fact that they are cruelly punished if they misbehave the slightest. That works on smaller scale, to keep your own peasants in line, but it is very bad method to inspire the men sworn to other lords to die for you (let alone those very other lords!).

[aryagonnakill]

The Tyrells outnumber the remaining Northern forces about 5:1, if I'm not mistaken, especially since we have to assume that a lot of people are going to die in the Battle of Winterfell. If Stannis wins a decisive victory and kills both Roose and Ramsay, he might have about 7,000 men after the battle, I guess. And not all of them would follow him down south, especially since Stannis himself would know that it would be stupid to take all men with him (which, of course, is going to mean that he won't march south at all).

Stannis would be completely stupid to march through the Neck at this time. He has not enough food for his army, especially if it was to grow down in the Riverlands, even more so since the Riverlands he needed to cross to reach KL are completely ravaged.

The Tyrells and Lannisters would get knowledge of his march way too soon, they would entrap him at a place of their choosing, and then destroy him.

As to Roose's chance of winning the coming battle:

He has already lost. Roose wanted to be smart, he wanted to have 'the high ground' and made Stannis march on him. He tried this two time, first with the Dreadfort and then with Winterfell. But Stannis (and the weather) turned the table on him. Roose sits now with increasingly more pissed bunch of people in a castle, and most of them hate each other more than the so-called enemy. Stannis, on the other hand, has neutralized the Karstark blade at his own neck (which very well could have led to his demise), and is now able to feed Roose misinformation. Even more importantly, Stannis's men are desperate from the hunger and cold, and they are most determined to win. The mountain clan men are apparently glad/ready to die fighting against the Boltons, and Stannis's southron knights only hope of survival is to win the coming battle. The craven POV given to us by Justin Massey might actually work to Stannis's advantage when the battle finally begins. There is no hope left that they could make anything out of their lives if they lose this battle. Determination and desperation are very powerful elements in a battle.

The Northmen on Bolton's side fight for an ill-conceived lie, under the command of a man who betrayed and killed their king and liege lord. They won't die for him, in fact, most of them who are not already plotting betrayal (Lord Wyman Manderly, possibly Hother Umber) won't stick to Roose if things appear as if they could go bad.

Roose and even more so Ramsay do not inspire loyalty in anyone, most likely not even in their very own men. The fact that the Bolton men seem to be a loyal bunch of people mostly has to do with the fact that they are cruelly punished if they misbehave the slightest. That works on smaller scale, to keep your own peasants in line, but it is very bad method to inspire the men sworn to other lords to die for you (let alone those very other lords!).

I completely agree with you about Roose, especially when you add in everything about the fake Arya. If the lords with Bolton in Winterfell knew she was a fake then that automatically makes them less loyal. If they thought she was real then as pointed out in a Theon chapter they noticed that she never left her room and they could hear her crying. One thing I disagree about tho is that the Lannister's and Tyrells will be working together, and that the Riverlands will be hostile to Stannis. I see the downfall of the Frey's written on the wall, whether it is at the hands of Nymeria, Sansa, Catlyn, or the Blackfish. And as for the Lannister Tyrell alliance, well there's a lot of options there too. The lannisters have already lost most of their power, Cersei and Margery are both having trials and the Tyrells know it was Cersei's doing. Varys is most likely controlling the High Septon, and then theirs Aegon, and the Ironborn. I don't think Stannis can march south any time soon, but I do think when he does, or when whoever marches south again, they will be joined the the Riverlands and the Vale and the odds wont be as bad as you suggested. But at the current moment you're probably just about right about the balance of forces.

[The Sunset King]

But in ASoIaF battles have been fought and won in Winter. In one of the Davos POVs in ADWD his jailer tells how the Northmen led by Brandon Starke (aka 'Ice Eyes') captured the fortified Wolf's Den at White Harbor in the middle of a harsh winter. It ended with blood sacrifices to the Old Gods. Perhaps Bolton entrails will soon decorate the WF Godswood as a similar offering. I think it is quite possible that Stannis will win and if he does he will have fresh supplies from White Harbor and from Greywater Watch.

I would not be surprised if Howland Reed and his Crannogmen joined Stannis in the coming battle of ice. It is almost impossible to believe that Reed is not aware of situation and planning to get involve (especially as he no longer has to fight the Iron Men).

These are very interesting points. Your post gives a plausible explanation as to why the Northerners might be tempted to restart sacrificing humans to heart trees. There also would be the possibility, after securing victory at Winterfell, of importing supplies from Braavos in addition to gaining the resources through the North.

[Tharvot]

I've grown to like Stannis, but I agree...he is doomed.

In my opinion, Stannis' storyline is at an end after the Battle of Winterfell. I think he will be victorious, but with that victory, he will also have played out his purpose in the story. IMO, Stannis exists for only a few important reasons in the storyline.

1. Get Melisandre to The Wall and Jon Snow

2. Get Rickon back

3. Get the Boltons out of Winterfell

If he is victorious at Winterfell, his purpose seems to be at an end. Clearly, Stannis doesn't see his goals as completed, but GRRM might.

[Catacombs]

The Tyrells and Lannisters would get knowledge of his march way too soon, they would entrap him at a place of their choosing, and then destroy him.

This does not seem very likely. The Tyrells and Lannisters are just an incident or two away from war with each other. I cannot see the Tyrells giving a rat's ass about the North, the Freys, Boltons or any deal Tywin made with them. They are concerned with consolidating power in KL, putting the Lannister's (especially Cersi) in their place, pushing the Iron Men back into the sea, dealing with Aegon and the Golden Company and then the North.

As long as Stannis keeps above the Neck the Tyrells don't care what he does. I doubt they would care that much even if Stannis took the Twins and liberated Riverrun. The Lannisters would care (at least the ones who are still alive), but I don't think they'll be able to count on the Tyrells for very much support.

If Stannis defeats the Boltons he'll have the run of the North until he's ready to head South.

Of course the arrival of dragons and The Others to Westeros will ruin everybody's carefully laid out plans...

[HopeForSpring]

I agree that in the long run Stannis is doomed - but I'll be less sure (ETA: that it will happen in TWOW) if he looses but survives (the initial battle). GRRM seems to have a preference to take people out when they are on top, not when they are down.

[Associate Maester]

I have no doubt Stannis will survive the battle and go onto take\help take back Winterfell. It is what happens after that, when he heads back to the Wall and the situation there plus the oncoming issue with the Others. He's doomed, I just don't think doomed to die while taking Winterfell.

[Lord Varys]

Well, it's still a possibility that Mace Tyrell:

1. Gets rid of Cersei during some trial (either the trial-by-combat or another, accusing her of Kevan's and Pycelle's murder). Which, in turn, would put effectively him in control of the Reach and the West (Tommen would inherit Casterly Rock from his mother).

2. Beats the Golden Company completely in the field before Dorne can declare for Aegon, thus effectively dealing with this threat as well.

3. Paxter Redwyne smashes Euron's fleet.

That's not that likely, I admit as much, but Stannis up in the North has no idea about any of those threats to King Tommen's rule. If he wins, he would decide to march south under the impression of facing a strong Lannister/Tyrell opposition. And he would have no chance to beat anyone down there, even under Queen Regent Cersei from, say, middle AFfC.

As to Stannis's importance in the story:

GRRM tried to make it appear Stannis does not wear plot armor. But he does, he may be one of the very few people who do, since it was foreshadowed in ACoK that there might be some sort of confrontation between Dany, Aegon, and Stannis. There is much talk about the hopelessness of Stannis's campaign in the North, Jon repeatedly fears or thinks about Stannis's possible demise. The Theon and Asha chapters gave the feeling of Bolton superiority and impending doom on Stannis's side (all those details about the cold count, and the suffering of the southron knights). But in my opinion this is most likely GRRM's way to 'surprise' us with Stannis's victory in TWoW rather than with ultimate end. That's why the gift Theon chapter was not in ADwD. We only learn in TWoW that Stannis has learned about the Karstarks in time. That's what reverses everything, and makes it quite likely that we are going to learn that the Pink Letter of ADwD was full of lies.

If Stannis was a dead end, GRRM would have shown us his death in ADwD. He would have set up the story differently, making Stannis the one on top of things until the very end (say, by allowing Stannis to capture Winterfell instead of Bolton, by making Bolton the one who suffered from the weather, not Stannis).

[houseHB]

Davos is the only one Stannis bends to

[Rains]

Something tells me that the man will not stop there. Despite how stupid it would be to wage war during the Winter, his recent... changes, have made him into a more rutheless man. You can't even call him determined, just blinded by his duty.

The clever thing would be to stop, regain his strength etc... but that would give time to the others also, plus with the threat coming North... it seems a loose loose here, even if he wins.