Stannis's plan for the hired mercenaries

[The Sunset King]

In the gift chapter Stannis speaks as if he has a general plan on how to utilize the sellswords he wants Massey to hire and what actions will proceed gaining Winterfell. Given that he speaks of a minimum of 20,000, does he have a specific plan of action that will be executed when they arrive or is it just a general amount that he believes will be needed to reignite his cause (along with securing the loyalty of the North)? Of course, Stannis will also take into account the fact that the game of thrones keeps changing dramatically at a rapid speed.

Rather than discuss whether it is or is not possible for Massey to reach Braavos and actually find enough companies to gain 20,000 sellswords, the purpose of this thread is more to discuss what Stannis will do if he succeeds in gaining them.

Consider the following events to be inevitable in this scenario:

1. Stannis crushes his foes in the Battle of Ice; Manderly joins and helps

2. Stannis seizes Winterfell and Rickon is successfully installed as the Liege Lord

3. Massey enters Braavos and eventually is able to recruit somewere between 10,000 - 20,000. Odds weighted toward the upper end. Additionally, the Iron Bank and Braavosi elite provide Massey with advice and assistance.

4. The North and the sellswords can be supplied by wise use of a combination of Northern resources and importing needed items from Essos (mainly Braavos).

If all of those happen there are several possibilities. One is that Stannis might decide that the Others are too dangerous to be left unchecked and that the Wall seems unable to keep things together without the king's presence. He thus focuses more on defending the realm from the Others than advancing his claim to the throne until a more opportune time arrives. However, the Wall can only sustain so large of a force. Furthermore, there is not much of a point in massing thousands upon thousands of combantants there. Quality matters more than quantity, given how the Wall works. If Stannis stays, the Northern forces plus the sellswords would still be enough to probe territory to the south.

There is also the issue of the dangerous winter and difficulty moving. Sacking the Twins and moving into the Riverlands might be viable with a large number of Northerners and mercenaries.

[Rains]

Will the North want more war? After the Freys and Boltons are dead, they might decline... the Others are something else though. Anyway, I just know that Stannis is safe when he's still at rock bottom. Once he reaches the top, he'll die. Happens all the time ><

Quentyn being all badass? Gets burned by the Green one.

Robb wins every battle? Gets killed.

Ned about to cease custody of Joff? Gets betrayed.

Martin pulls this shit off too many times xD

[Lord Varys]

If Stannis wins not only some few mercenary companies, but also the backing of Braavos itself, he might deploy the sellswords farther down south. King's Landing is vulnerable to a naval attack.

But in any case, those swords will only enter the game late in TWoW or early in ADoS. Stannis might very well truly be dead then, and the Others on their march down south...

[THE DOC]

What if the sellswords come from further east from slavers bay perhaps? led by a silver haired queen and in posession of the only 3 dragons left to the world?

Great way of Danreys getting back to Westeros and getting a lot of support in the North destroying the threat of the others before unmasking the muumer dragon at storms end and righting all the wrongs inbetween!

[Lightstar]

When Stannis finds out some little purple eyed kid pretending to be Aegon sacked Storms End, he's going to go Ape Shit and want to send all his forces there... or he'll play it safe/smart for the time being and send a good part of his forces to the neck then return to the wall.

[jon rr stark]

20,000 is a good sized army. I'm thinking he will go and start a war. His plan will be to pick up the loyality and forces of other houses as he wins battles. He is already on the verge of winning the north to his side. Next the riverlands and be in a similar position to Robb, but with a Much weaker Lannister force to reckon with. The Stormlords return to the fold he has the majority of the great houses in his hands.

[nepaliman_7]

Once he hears about Aegon in Storms End, he will probably try to win it back.

[Lord Varys]

Stannis does not give a fig about either Dragonstone or Storm's End. At least since he has abandoned his holdings in the South to deal with the wildlings and the Others. He did not stop his campaign in the North after Dragonstone fell, and he won't come rushing down south after he hears about the fall of Storm's End.

If he comes down in the not-so-near-future he will come to conquer King's Landing (and then, subsequently, Dragonstone and Storm's End). The man is in the game for the Iron Throne, not some castles.

[drigoly]

You forget one important thing, winter is finaly in westeros and large scale wars during that time won't realy work, so we could see a stalemate with Tommen/Aegon/Stannis's troops, they could be just sitting around untill Dany arrives and the others invade, forcing westeros to come to a decision and unite the realm ot fight the others during the winter.

[Lord Varys]

I'm quite sure Stannis is not going to march south during winter, not only because he has the Others in his back, but mostly because it would be entirely stupid. Such a march with a most likely not so large host would completely cripple the winter stores of the North, and of the people in the riverlands/south whose lands Stannis would have to cross to reach KL.

It would be a sure way to harm/annihilate his own people, and Stannis is not going to do this. Especially since it could create a situation where his own host might end up completely without food.

The same is true for Aegon. Even if he takes the Iron Throne, he won't march immediately north to deal with Stannis (although he might end up doing it if he learns about his 'destiny' as the promised prince. We have to keep in mind that Rhaegar believed him to be the promised savior, and someone might tell him about that eventually.

If the Others don't attack the Wall or disappear into thin air, Stannis might decide to have the Braavosi deploy his sellswords at King's Landing directly. Such a move could very well win him the Iron Throne quite easily this time, but I guess he would join his troops in such an event. Naval traffic does not cease in winter, apparently, since it was already stated that autumn is the worst season for sea voyages.

But right now my guess is that the poor bastards Stannis is going to hire will have to fight against the Others.

And we have to assume that Aegon and the Golden Company (and, most likely, Dorne) will press their advantage right now, winter or no. Aegon's cause is going to gather momentum. If he does not try to take King's Landing after he has taken Storm's End, King Tommen's administration won't sit idly on their asses through the whole winter to continue the war in spring. Whether Aegon would march against Casterly Rock (assuming that Cersei flees the city with Tommen and/or Myrcella) remains to be seen. A regular winter does not affect the southern regions (the south of the Reach and Dorne) as much as it does its north (the Vale, KL, the Riverlands), so war in the West might still be a possibility in the first winter year, I guess.

But of course, this winter is going to become very hard and cold. I'm quite sure it will even snow in Sunspear in the next volume, so it's more than likely that every military campaign in the South is going to become a problem for any party involved.

[Quentyn Baratheon]

I'm not sure we'll see the sellswords in TWOW. He needs time to gather them and besides, the mongrel of host Stannis has right now, would have had boundaries after winning Winterfell. Better to use a solid pack of soldiers who know each other to man the Wall.

[Carn_Dum]

I wouldn't be surprised if this entire sellsword thing will turn out to be another disappointment fot Stannis. Stannis told Massey to hire the Golden Company if possible, but that obviously won't happen. Together with the war around Meereen happening and quite a few being mercenaries already under employ by cities such as Pentos and Braavos, that could mean there are actually very few decent mercenary companies left for hire.

[Quentyn Baratheon]

Together with the war around Meereen happening and quite a few being mercenaries already under employ by cities such as Pentos and Braavos, that could mean there are actually very few decent mercenary companies left for hire.

There is aplenty of sellsword companies not engaged in Meereen. Without counting sellswords wandering on their own.

[Dawn Age]

Say, Sansa marries that Harry kid, Littlefinger dies, she becomes Lady of the Vale. Now she can influence her husband to call his banners and pick a side. Maybe The Blackfish will lead? Anyone thought of that?

[Ciazio]

Say, Sansa marries that Harry kid, Littlefinger dies, she becomes Lady of the Vale. Now she can influence her husband to call his banners and pick a side. Maybe The Blackfish will lead? Anyone thought of that?

I'd stay in-topic, back to Stannis' strategy.

I think that, military speaking, his best plan for part of the sellswords (at least 5.000) would be to secure Moat Cailin by sea. That castle is key to the North and with snowstorms might be unattainable by land.

Another huge part of the army (10.000?) could be sent to the Wall to aid the NW and Tormund against the Weeper and the Others.

He could use the remnants (5.000) to secure the North mainland with the help of the Clansmen, his knights and Manderly's army, heading back to the Wall when the work is done (depending on the snowstorms, obviously).

Anyway, I'm not sure everything is going to go well for him: Manderly and the other lords and clansmen could dump him in the snow as soon as Rickon is safe in WH (and I think this is exactly what is going to happen).

Moreover, I think that if Aegon were succesful in taking Storm's End Stannis would grind his teeth but won't do anything to retake it, at least not in the mid-term run.

That's what I would do in his shoes, however.

[ab aeterno]

I'd stay in-topic, back to Stannis' strategy.

I think that, military speaking, his best plan for part of the sellswords (at least 5.000) would be to secure Moat Cailin by sea. That castle is key to the North and with snowstorms might be unattainable by land.

Another huge part of the army (10.000?) could be sent to the Wall to aid the NW and Tormund against the Weeper and the Others.

He could use the remnants (5.000) to secure the North mainland with the help of the Clansmen, his knights and Manderly's army, heading back to the Wall when the work is done (depending on the snowstorms, obviously).

Anyway, I'm not sure everything is going to go well for him: Manderly and the other lords and clansmen could dump him in the snow as soon as Rickon is safe in WH (and I think this is exactly what is going to happen).

Moreover, I think that if Aegon were succesful in taking Storm's End Stannis would grind his teeth but won't do anything to retake it, at least not in the mid-term run.

That's what I would do in his shoes, however.

Would they be able to take Moat Cailin though? It would seem unlikely, considering the events of the books and the history, that they would be able to take and hold it unless the Crannogmen were on side, though if they were then Moat Cailin would certainly be one of his first objectives IMO. Stannis is said to be a great commander and he would need to secure his rear if he intends to stay in the North.

I'm not totally convinced that Stannis would send the bulk of his new forces to the Wall. That might be the right course of action from our perspective, but I'm no longer convinced that it would be his choice. I'm sure he would send some of his forces there, but I think he would use the largest part elsewhere. It seems IMO that the newly built fleet in White Harbor ought to have a role to play. Would Stannis take another shot at KL if the Tyrell army moves off to deal with Aegon?

I think your course of action is probably a pretty good one though.

[Lord Varys]

If Stannis wins the coming battle, he will win the North. He will have men enough to secure Moat Cailin with a token force, while returning to the Wall with his main host. Winterfell most likely is then going to rebuild properly by people he trusts (my guess would be Manderly men, and mountain clan men). The castle needs to stand strong during winter, especially if the Wall should fall and they were in need of a defensible base in the North (and even if not, Winterfell is apparently the strong northern castle where no small portion of the North stays during winter).

The sellswords will come into play much later, and we cannot predict how is going to use them since we can't be sure what is going to happen until then. If the Others invade Westeros most bets are off.

[The Sunset King]

If the Wall actually falls, Stannis would probable go all out to defend the North from Others, wights, and whatever else may invade. If it remains up, he would have an opportunity to use the Northern fleet to strike somewhere unexpectedly, should there be some kind of military/tactical advantage in doing so.

In the event that the whole of the North supports Stannis, a combination of the Crannogmen and sellswords could hold Moat Cailin. An assortment of his own knights and the Northerners would be the best way to defend the Wall since reliability, knowledge of the area, and a willingness to sacrifice comfort are the most important factors when defending it. The Night's Watch is becoming too decimated and rent by internal conflicts to do much good anymore.

One factor is whether any houses to the south would consider declaring for Stannis if he does rally the North. The assistance of portions of the Vale, the Riverlands, or Casterly Rock would provide him opportunities that otherwise would not exist. However, that depends on their internal dynamics of those areas and what happens with the Aegon vs Tyrell-Lannister conflict.

[Lord Varys]

Actually, I never thought about the possibility that (factions of) the West might declare for Stannis. This could actually happen. If Tommen and Myrcella die (or are officially declared bastards) the Lannisters lose their claimants to the Iron Throne. Jaime might end up joining Aegon, but all those who consider Aegon a fake might end up looking to Stannis rather than the Queen Who Does Not Come.

And Kevan's death might actually cause major trouble in Casterly Rock. If Cersei doesn't get their soon, the lions will start fighting for the prize. And whoever ends up ruling in the name of young Lord Martyn (if Cersei and the children die/are declared bastards) or is outright usurping Casterly Rock could look North rather than to Storm's End (if news about a complete Bolton defeat were to reach the South rather quickly in TWoW).

[aryagonnakill]

I haven't seen anyone mention Stannis' plan to get the Iron Isles to declare for him by getting Asha on the Seastone Chair.