Stannis's plan for the hired mercenaries

[The Sunset King]

If Stannis can get Asha on the Seastone Chair and if she proves reliable enough to back his claim to the Iron Throne, that would help him place pressure on Casterly Rock. Eventually much of the West would have difficulty evading a decision between supporting Stannis or backing Aegon. It is basically only a matter of time before Tommen and Myrcella are killed or King's Landing is seized by an Aegon backed by various southern factions, possibly including the Faith Militant.

Elements of the Lannister house and some other of the westerly families would have issues with both sides, however their problems with the Targaryens and the Golden Company captains probably run deeper and may be more intractable. The highly probable struggle for lordship of the Rock could easily tie into this as a result of different claimants seeking outside support.

Having fleets, provided their are somewhat loyal, on both of Westeros's coast would make it far easier to transport forces. Dethroning Euron would be a difficult task, though.

[Where Boars Glow]

I also think it's worth noting that these are SELLSWORDS we are talking about. Not known for bravery or honor. I could see them signing on to sack the riverlands and plunder their hearts out.....but asking them to stand the wall while creatures out of nightmare throw wave after wave of undead monstrosity that aren't even a part of legend in slavers bay? I doubt it.

If they show up 20,000 strong and bolster what is left of his force and he asks them to fight the Others....they may serve him up to either YG or Cerci for a second payday.

[ab aeterno]

I also think it's worth noting that these are SELLSWORDS we are talking about. Not known for bravery or honor. I could see them signing on to sack the riverlands and plunder their hearts out.....but asking them to stand the wall while creatures out of nightmare throw wave after wave of undead monstrosity that aren't even a part of legend in slavers bay? I doubt it.

If they show up 20,000 strong and bolster what is left of his force and he asks them to fight the Others....they may serve him up to either YG or Cerci for a second payday.

Good point. We know Stannis doesn't approve of rape, or pillaging, of thievery, or cannibalism, but how does he feel about strategic destruction? At this point, assuming he can get a force there, his mercenaries would very possibly be best served by harrassing/sabotaging the Riverlands/Westerlands or perhaps more strategically, the Reach. Moving on the reach would force the Tyrells to either abandon their move against Storm's End or abandon the capital in all likelihood. I don't think they could possibly have enough men to defend the Reach against a decently sized force, defend KL and besiege Storm's End at the same time, even with their huge armies.

[aryagonnakill]

Good point. We know Stannis doesn't approve of rape, or pillaging, of thievery, or cannibalism, but how does he feel about strategic destruction? At this point, assuming he can get a force there, his mercenaries would very possibly be best served by harrassing/sabotaging the Riverlands/Westerlands or perhaps more strategically, the Reach. Moving on the reach would force the Tyrells to either abandon their move against Storm's End or abandon the capital in all likelihood. I don't think they could possibly have enough men to defend the Reach against a decently sized force, defend KL and besiege Storm's End at the same time, even with their huge armies.

I don't think pillaging the Riverlands would do anyone any good at this point, they already got screwed over pretty hard. But landing them at Saltpans and using them to besiege the Freys from the South side, or both sides would be useful. Stannis would likely be in a position to have the Riverlands declare for him if he can eliminate the Freys and as I posted earlier if he gets Asha on the Seastone chair to declare for him then he has the Westerlands on both sides. Not that any of this is definite but from there he could offer any Lannister left in the West or some other reasonably powerful house to be the liege lord of the West as long as he gave back Edmure and declared for him. He would be in a very good position if this happened, especially if Sansa gets the Vale on his side instead of her marrying Aegon. Both seem plausible. This chain of events does however leave out Catlyn and the Blackfish having any serious impact, kind of a hole. 20,000 men seems like enough to secure the Riverlands though, If he sent them down to Harrenhall after taking the Crossing they'd be in a very defendable position pretty far to the south so Stannis would have lots of maneuvering room.

[Quentyn Baratheon]

Hm, nice idea with the Freys. Maybe a north occupation via the Neck to The Twins. And the Saltpans thing, with the force going to Riverrun.

[ab aeterno]

I don't think pillaging the Riverlands would do anyone any good at this point, they already got screwed over pretty hard. But landing them at Saltpans and using them to besiege the Freys from the South side, or both sides would be useful. Stannis would likely be in a position to have the Riverlands declare for him if he can eliminate the Freys and as I posted earlier if he gets Asha on the Seastone chair to declare for him then he has the Westerlands on both sides. Not that any of this is definite but from there he could offer any Lannister left in the West or some other reasonably powerful house to be the liege lord of the West as long as he gave back Edmure and declared for him. He would be in a very good position if this happened, especially if Sansa gets the Vale on his side instead of her marrying Aegon. Both seem plausible. This chain of events does however leave out Catlyn and the Blackfish having any serious impact, kind of a hole. 20,000 men seems like enough to secure the Riverlands though, If he sent them down to Harrenhall after taking the Crossing they'd be in a very defendable position pretty far to the south so Stannis would have lots of maneuvering room.

I meant harassing/troubling the Lannister/Frey/other hostile forces in the Riverlands rather than the actual land itself, which must be pretty pillaged out by now!

[Ciazio]

I also think it's worth noting that these are SELLSWORDS we are talking about. Not known for bravery or honor. I could see them signing on to sack the riverlands and plunder their hearts out.....but asking them to stand the wall while creatures out of nightmare throw wave after wave of undead monstrosity that aren't even a part of legend in slavers bay? I doubt it.

If they show up 20,000 strong and bolster what is left of his force and he asks them to fight the Others....they may serve him up to either YG or Cerci for a second payday.

Uhm... A sellsword is put on a 700 feet Wall with a winter snowstorm behind his back and an undead army in front of him... is he going to bribe the deads? Is he going to change side, running to Aegon and Cersei? How?

The Wall might be the best place where to put sellsword. They cannot change side. Alive.

[Where Boars Glow]

I don't think pillaging the Riverlands would do anyone any good at this point, they already got screwed over pretty hard. But landing them at Saltpans and using them to besiege the Freys from the South side, or both sides would be useful. Stannis would likely be in a position to have the Riverlands declare for him if he can eliminate the Freys and as I posted earlier if he gets Asha on the Seastone chair to declare for him then he has the Westerlands on both sides. Not that any of this is definite but from there he could offer any Lannister left in the West or some other reasonably powerful house to be the liege lord of the West as long as he gave back Edmure and declared for him. He would be in a very good position if this happened, especially if Sansa gets the Vale on his side instead of her marrying Aegon. Both seem plausible. This chain of events does however leave out Catlyn and the Blackfish having any serious impact, kind of a hole. 20,000 men seems like enough to secure the Riverlands though, If he sent them down to Harrenhall after taking the Crossing they'd be in a very defendable position pretty far to the south so Stannis would have lots of maneuvering room.

I wasn't really speaking on what Stannis SHOULD do tactically...as much as what the sellswords he hired WOULD be willing to do and more importantly...what they wouldn't.

[Where Boars Glow]

Uhm... A sellsword is put on a 700 feet Wall with a winter snowstorm behind his back and an undead army in front of him... is he going to bribe the deads? Is he going to change side, running to Aegon and Cersei? How?

The Wall might be the best place where to put sellsword. They cannot change side. Alive.

They could leave? march south. As i said take Stannis prisoner and yes sell him to Aegon or whoever is running Lannisport. They will have already gotten paid by Stannis at this point. Why not again?

[Ciazio]

They could leave? march south. As i said take Stannis prisoner and yes sell him to Aegon or whoever is running Lannisport. They will have already gotten paid by Stannis at this point. Why not again?

Yes, they could take Stannis prisoner and try to march south. Then they would understand that they are going nowhere: snowstorms, angry northerners everywhere and - most of all - an army of undead running after them.

If they leave the Wall, the Wall falls. If the Wall falls, an army of undead chase them down till Dorne.

They would know it and do everything they could to prevent the Others from passing the Wall.

Oviously, the only way to persuade an Essosi sellsword to come and fight the Others is... not to tell him that he is going to fight an horde of bloody deads.

[aryagonnakill]

I wasn't really speaking on what Stannis SHOULD do tactically...as much as what the sellswords he hired WOULD be willing to do and more importantly...what they wouldn't.

Ah fair point, the sellswords would likely do some pillaging.

[Where Boars Glow]

Yes, they could take Stannis prisoner and try to march south. Then they would understand that they are going nowhere: snowstorms, angry northerners everywhere and - most of all - an army of undead running after them.

If they leave the Wall, the Wall falls. If the Wall falls, an army of undead chase them down till Dorne.

They would know it and do everything they could to prevent the Others from passing the Wall.

Oviously, the only way to persuade an Essosi sellsword to come and fight the Others is... not to tell him that he is going to fight an horde of bloody deads.

I agree this would be the smart thing to do....but thinking like a sellsword...you took a big sack of gold to bring your men across the see...you get there and it is insane bitter cold and some prickily employer says stand this wall to defend against these unholy monstrosities or they will invade the land.

(Sellsword Captain) "Who's land are we suppose to fight these creatures for? No thanks. Take that hostage and the gold we have left and lets find a ship home boys. We have coin enough to get off this god forsaken rock filled with monsters." Onward...back towards the sunshine."

I am not saying it would work out for them....just that it is what they would do.

[SerGrahamando ofUttershill]

Everyone seems to be working on the assumption that Stannis already has 20000 sellswords waiting to take ship in Essos. As of the end of DwD this hasn't even been mentioned, and we don't know exactly how far into WoW that chapter will appear. If Stannis even has 1 sellsword in Westeros by the end of WoW I will be surprised. And that is assuming Massey even makes it to Bravos. Remember he is travelling via the Wall, where who knows what chaos is going on, and supposedly taking ship from Eastwatch. Didn't Cotter Pyke take all the ships to Hardhome, where there are "dead things in the water". I don't know why GRRM has put this sellsword thing in, it will undoubtedly be important, but it's not going to be a magic bullet for Stannis to take KL or destroy the Freys or whatever.

[Quentyn Baratheon]

(...) I don't know why GRRM has put this sellsword thing in, it will undoubtedly be important, but it's not going to be a magic bullet for Stannis to take KL or destroy the Freys or whatever.

He dropped the 5 year fastforward, so Stannis needs men, and a Navy (Aurane Waters, he can't wait Braavos building them) in a rather close future.

Although I do agree with you we'll probably not see them in WOW.

[aryagonnakill]

Everyone seems to be working on the assumption that Stannis already has 20000 sellswords waiting to take ship in Essos. As of the end of DwD this hasn't even been mentioned, and we don't know exactly how far into WoW that chapter will appear. If Stannis even has 1 sellsword in Westeros by the end of WoW I will be surprised. And that is assuming Massey even makes it to Bravos. Remember he is travelling via the Wall, where who knows what chaos is going on, and supposedly taking ship from Eastwatch. Didn't Cotter Pyke take all the ships to Hardhome, where there are "dead things in the water". I don't know why GRRM has put this sellsword thing in, it will undoubtedly be important, but it's not going to be a magic bullet for Stannis to take KL or destroy the Freys or whatever.

Thats definitely a good point, at least for me though I see Massey making it to Bravos because it just seems like a nice way to get Arya back into the main storyline. I think you could easily be right that it wont take place until a dream of spring though. This could potentially mean the Wall wont be an option for them.

[hotweaselsoup]

"But first hire as many swords as you can find in Braavos, and send them to me by way of Eastwatch. Archers as well, we need more bows."

I don't know what Stannis plans, but swords and bows are supposedly coming via Eastwatch. Jon, at one point, decided to beef up the archery training amongst the Black Brothers as well. Something tells me that this sellsword army, hopefully equipped with dragonglass arrowheads, is heading for a showdown on the Wall.

[Ciazio]

"But first hire as many swords as you can find in Braavos, and send them to me by way of Eastwatch. Archers as well, we need more bows."

I don't know what Stannis plans, but swords and bows are supposedly coming via Eastwatch. Jon, at one point, decided to beef up the archery training amongst the Black Brothers as well. Something tells me that this sellsword army, hopefully equipped with dragonglass arrowheads, is heading for a showdown on the Wall.

And flaming arrows. A lot of.

[Stark@heart]

Everyone seems to be working on the assumption that Stannis already has 20000 sellswords waiting to take ship in Essos. As of the end of DwD this hasn't even been mentioned, and we don't know exactly how far into WoW that chapter will appear. If Stannis even has 1 sellsword in Westeros by the end of WoW I will be surprised. And that is assuming Massey even makes it to Bravos. Remember he is travelling via the Wall, where who knows what chaos is going on, and supposedly taking ship from Eastwatch. Didn't Cotter Pyke take all the ships to Hardhome, where there are "dead things in the water". I don't know why GRRM has put this sellsword thing in, it will undoubtedly be important, but it's not going to be a magic bullet for Stannis to take KL or destroy the Freys or whatever.

That's what I've been thinking. How is Massey suppose to get to the Wall and then to EastWatch and then sail past White Harbor, Dragonstone and Kings Landing - then dodge the Redwyne fleet and the Ironborn - etc, etc just to get across the Narrow Sea - It's just seems to unlikely to me, not to mention too time consuming.

I don't think Massey and Co are going to get any farther than Castle Black, where all hell has been broken loose by Marsh and his cohorts.

[aryagonnakill]

That's what I've been thinking. How is Massey suppose to get to the Wall and then to EastWatch and then sail past White Harbor, Dragonstone and Kings Landing - then dodge the Redwyne fleet and the Ironborn - etc, etc just to get across the Narrow Sea - It's just seems to unlikely to me, not to mention too time consuming.

I don't think Massey and Co are going to get any farther than Castle Black, where all hell has been broken loose by Marsh and his cohorts.

He doesn't have to sail past any of those places, it's a straight shot from Eastwatch to Bravos. Thats how Sam Gilly and Aemon got there at least. Castle black they may have to get past, the ship situation is also in question, I always figured that Davos may land at Eastwatch with Rickon and provide Massey a ship.

[The Sunset King]

One thing to keep in mind is that the Iron Bank is not going to leave Tycho Nestoris stranded in the North. He is an important agent sent an a mission they take very seriously; the Iron Bank will undertake some kind of action to ensure that he is brought back or that retribution is enforced so as to main their reputation. They may not have direct communication with Nestoris right now, but the bankers in Braavos will not just do nothing if he takes too long to return. The Iron Bank will not allow its will to be thwarted so easily by as feeble of foes as those causing chaos at the Wall. It has dealt with much more dangerous enemies in the past.

It is not like Stannis and Massey are the only ways wanting this deal to succeed. Given what has happened since mid-DWD, the Iron Bank's intervention into the Westerosi war in some notable fashion is now extremely probable.