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Stannis's plan for the hired mercenaries


The Sunset King

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I think Stannis will march on Casterly Rock, and defend the west shore from the iron islands. Casterly Rock now has no heir and is full of cash that Stannis needs to pay Bravos bank. with most of the Lannister forces in KL , this could be an easy win.

I wondered about that, but Casterly Rock is on the other side of Westeros. His sellswords would have to sail round the entire continent and potentially deal with Aurane Waters and the rest of the Ironborn who didn't go with Victarion. If The former royal fleet were to meet Stannis somewhere on the western coast of the North then perhaps he could go to Casterly Rock, but otherwise I don't think it's practical.

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Is there is any land route from the North that would present a viable means of invading Casterly Rock? If so, it would technically possible to land the sellswords in the North and then march into the Rock at some point.

I can't say for certain, but I think, realistically, that you would have to cross the Riverlands. That would mean either going via the Twins and then across the Riverlands/Westerlands or taking the King's Road. I would think that neither of them would be particularly viable though- the Tyrells/Lannisters would likely have time to prepare. Also, the Kingsroad would take them past the Vale and Harrenhal, which depending on LF's plans could be problematic.

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^ Thats partially correct you have to pass the Twins, Riverrun, the Golden Tooth(unless you take the goat path Greywind found) and then through the westernlands to the western shore where Casterly Rock is. But since the Twins and Riverrun need to be dealt with anyway its actually not that long of a trip from there to Casterly Rock. The Kingsroad leads to Kingslanding it doesn't go west. There are maps in every book.

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^ Thats partially correct you have to pass the Twins, Riverrun, the Golden Tooth(unless you take the goat path Greywind found) and then through the westernlands to the western shore where Casterly Rock is. But since the Twins and Riverrun need to be dealt with anyway its actually not that long of a trip from there to Casterly Rock. The Kingsroad leads to Kingslanding it doesn't go west. There are maps in every book.

I realize he needs to deal with the Twins/RR anyway, I meant that it wouldn't be ideal for just his mercenaries. He would need to train/recruit a larger force first IMO. With regards to the Kingsroad, it goes to KL but then the Goldroad goes from KL to Casterly Rock. I meant that the Kingsroad is the *only other (viable) land route past the Green Fork.

*Edited to remove double word.

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  • 2 months later...

Unless you believe in the Great northern conspiracy.. . in which case the restoration of the Starks to WF will not be primarily due to Stannis. In any case , I can't see great numbers of northern fighters marching south with him , they'll have to look to their own defenses and survival , considering the depletions they've already suffered.

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Unless you believe in the Great northern conspiracy.. . in which case the restoration of the Starks to WF will not be primarily due to Stannis. In any case , I can't see great numbers of northern fighters marching south with him , they'll have to look to their own defenses and survival , considering the depletions they've already suffered.

I think most people see Stannis staying in the North for the foreseeable future. Marching south doesn't really make strategic sense.

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With Winter setting in and the potential to get a lot worse I can't see Stannis getting out of Winterfell if he wins the Battle of Ice. The Wall is over twice the distance from WF to Deepwood Motte and look what that cost him. 10-20,000 sellswords aren't going to be able to travel much in the North and if they march to battle the looses will be devastating before they even get there.

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Obviously Stannis won't be going south immediately , but that has to be what is ultimately on his mind. Nothing can happen quickly , and whatever Stannis' plans are for the sellswords , now.. he has no clue as to the changes that are taking place in the south.

I don't see him staying for very long in WF though, because I strongly suspect he'll find himself merely in the role of honoured guest ( and ally ) at best , not truly in charge. He'll have to continue to defer to the Northmen in the matter of their Gods , and unless his own men undergo a rapid conversion , he'd have a hard time keeping them from defiling the godswood. ( Mind you , some might have a spiritual epiphany , depending on what happens at the tree on the island.)

Sea travel should be possible, especially if White Harbour becomes open to him and methods of travel can be adopted from the northmen and the wildlings. Stannis will know that Tormund's people are through the wall , but won't know they've sworn themselves to Jon , personally , and he won't know about Jon's arrangement with Tycho . Having just gone through hell with a starving army , I'd think he'd be wanting to move south ASAP, once he's secured what help he can from the North ,and knows the wall will be better manned than it was.

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If Stannis and the North are reasonably successful at defending the Wall, and make the presence of the Iron Bank felt throughout the realm, it would seem that many houses would increasingly be tempted to join the Baratheon cause. That is, unless a powerful uniting force appears to the south, something stronger than what the Lannisters have been.

The loyalty risk factor for sending sellswords south may be overrated for one very simple reason: Sellswords mostly fight for gold but no enemy will be able to remotely match the resources available from the Iron Bank. The sellswords will not join someone that cannot or will not pay them a reasonable sum periodically. Only an adversary with the ability to pay would seem likely to win the war. The winter itself is the more problematic issue.

The treasury at King's Landing is largely exhausted and the risks of raising taxes are enormous. Aegon, though, presents a long term problem, should he prove successful at becoming a major force.

If Stannis's plan currently is to use naval power to transport forces at some location on the eastern coast, there are various possibilities as to where that might be. However, his plans, whatever they are, may need to be modified soon due to a variety of factors (the Wall situation, Aegon).

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I wonder what relationship the Faceless Men as an organization have to the Sea Lord or the Iron Bank. You really just need to off Cersei, any other sane person will start paying the debt, I would think.

It's about more than that though. Now it is about punishing those who thought it was acceptable to fail to honor loans from the Iron Bank.

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It is questionable whether the Iron Throne is now really capable of paying the debt to any real degree or whether it really has hope of long term success in the war. The meeting of the first banker with Cersei at KL might have sowed doubts among the collective minds of the bankers as to whether elite controlling the throne would really ever pay back the bank in a satisfactory fashion, even if Cersei was gone. The need to punish offensive and unacceptable behavior is definitely a factor though. There may also be something involved a search for someone with the ability to potentially block Daenerys from the throne, although that subject is less clear.

It seems that there must almost necessarily be some connection or alliance between the Iron Bank and the Temple of Black and White/Faceless Men. Perhaps the FM somehow have majority ownership of the bank and have a religious justification as to why assassinations can ge conducted on its behalf without the normal sacrifices. A large portion of Braavos's political and economic elite probably either works at the bank, is friendly toward it, or is pressured into a subservient or patron/client relationship with it.

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When Stannis finds out some little purple eyed kid pretending to be Aegon sacked Storms End, he's going to go Ape Shit and want to send all his forces there... or he'll play it safe/smart for the time being and send a good part of his forces to the neck then return to the wall.

Stannis has been land locked and losing men by the score just getting to winterfell, how do you propose he march further south? This 20,000 woukd need to be heavily supplied for winter, as well as bring fresh steel, winter clothes etc for the current host. It would be one of the only successful winter matches in history...

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Yeah I'm also of the opinion that very few if any battles will be fought up north for the duration of TWoW. Such heavy snows simply prevent this from happening, let alone the bitter-cold winds. Armies will barely be able to move let alone fight!

Stannis needs to secure Winterfell – and fast. I suspect most sellswords are for the wall, some will go south and many will be used to garrison northern strongholds. They're not going to be marching through deep snows. But perhaps I'll be proved wrong.

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Stannis has been land locked and losing men by the score just getting to winterfell, how do you propose he march further south? This 20,000 woukd need to be heavily supplied for winter, as well as bring fresh steel, winter clothes etc for the current host. It would be one of the only successful winter matches in history...

I imagine White Harbour could and would be a massive boon to his cause if he could reach it, with the Manderlys being friendly.

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