Winds of Winter Total War - theory

[Brandon Martell]

The situation of Westeros at the end of Dance With Dragons can set Westeros into total chaos if a few more things happen. First, Tommen dies. This will set the perfect scenario for a fight between the Tyrells and the Lannister, even better than Kevan's death. The Lannisters will obviously declare for Myrcella, while the Tyrells might declare for Margery. Then Sansa marries Harry the Heir and the Vale declares for Sansa the Queen in the North. Meanwhile Davos finds Rickon, but he is captured somehow by Roose Bolton. Bolton declares himself Lord Regent of the Kingdom in the North in the name of King Rickon Stark. Rickon, being just a baby, can't really resist and say otherwise.

In this way, we'll have 7 sides fighting in a total war over Westeros:

• Tyrells and ruling in King's Landing
  
• Lannisters, with Cersei probably returning to Casterly Rock
  
• The Vale with Sansa
  
• Roose Bolton with Rickon
  
• Stannis
  
• Euron Greyjoy
  
• And let's not forget, Aegon Targaryen ruling from Storm's End
  

This would be a war bigger than the War of the Five Kings. The Martells can play all sides, Doran supports Myrcella while the Sand Snakes claim they are loyal to the Tyrells and stay in King's Landing while Arianne goes to Aegon. The North and the Riverlands will be split between many forces obviously.

What would spice things up even more is if Myrcella dies and suddenly the Lannisters have no claim and Stannis becomes the rightful heir regardless of whether Joffrey, Tommen, and Myrcella are Baratheons or Lannisters.

[sumant30]

Good theory but there are a few potholes

• How will roose bolton capture rickon he is in WF fighting stannis and already has hands full with manderly,umber men.
  
• The martells will of course support maragary as queen as his father wants all the power so they can be playing all the sides.
  
• Dorne will mostly side with aegon as he is elia's son.
  

[mchaza]

While some parts I believe Cersei will never leave KL because she is far too greedy to ever give up any part of power. But post imprisonment she could quite possibly flee if say KL desends into turmoil, Tommen dies and the Tyrell banner men break with those supporting Ageon and others supporting the Tyrells possibly doing a grab at the Iron throne. I do expect that Cersei will die at the hands of Jamie when he returns to her beaten, lost, then yells at him for not coming to her like a trained dog, where upon Jamie calls her a whore and chokes her to death (I want this scene!).

[sumant30]

While some parts I believe Cersei will never leave KL because she is far too greedy to ever give up any part of power. But post imprisonment she could quite possibly flee if say KL desends into turmoil, Tommen dies and the Tyrell banner men break with those supporting Ageon and others supporting the Tyrells possibly doing a grab at the Iron throne. I do expect that Cersei will die at the hands of Jamie when he returns to her beaten, lost, then yells at him for not coming to her like a trained dog, where upon Jamie calls her a whore and chokes her to death (I want this scene!).

That will be too predictable, i think cersi will die like joffrey or probably lannister and tyrell will go against each other in KL.

[WhiteWolf26]

Crackpot-The war of five queens?

Cersei-in KL.

Margery-flees to dragonstone with Loras and Aurane Waters fleet.

Sansa-in the Vale, rallies the North.

Dany-finally arives in Westeros.

Arienne- marries Aegon who is killed in battle but not before knocking her up.(this one is a stretch, I know)

[Brandon Martell]

Good theory but there are a few potholes

• How will roose bolton capture rickon he is in WF fighting stannis and already has hands full with manderly,umber men.
  
• The martells will of course support maragary as queen as his father wants all the power so they can be playing all the sides.
  
• Dorne will mostly side with aegon as he is elia's son.
  

These aren't plotholes. We don't know how the battle between Stannis and Bolton will end, so Bolton winning and capturing Rickon later, or even losing and retreating and then capturing Rickon, are still possibilities. Like I said, the Martells can play on all sides. The Sand Snakes in King's Landing will say they're loyal to the Tyrells, and with nothing to prove otherwise, they will keep their seats. They'll pretend to be independent of their "traitor" uncle Doran Martell who declared for Myrcella. Meanwhile Arianne is playing behind the scenes with Aegon, not showing her identity in public.

Crackpot-The war of five queens?

Cersei-in KL.

Margery-flees to dragonstone with Loras and Aurane Waters fleet.

Sansa-in the Vale, rallies the North.

Dany-finally arives in Westeros.

Arienne- marries Aegon who is killed in battle but not before knocking her up.(this one is a stretch, I know)

Arianne is a bit far, but if Tommen dies you can add Myrcella to the mix. Maybe Selyse will start acting, but not independent of Stannis ofc.

[sumant30]

These aren't plotholes. We don't know how the battle between Stannis and Bolton will end, so Bolton winning and capturing Rickon later, or even losing and retreating and then capturing Rickon, are still possibilities. Like I said, the Martells can play on all sides. The Sand Snakes in King's Landing will say they're loyal to the Tyrells, and with nothing to prove otherwise, they will keep their seats. They'll pretend to be independent of their "traitor" uncle Doran Martell who declared for Myrcella. Meanwhile Arianne is playing behind the scenes with Aegon, not showing her identity in public.

Arianne is a bit far, but if Tommen dies you can add Myrcella to the mix. Maybe Selyse will start acting, but not independent of Stannis ofc.

I don't think dorne will ever side with tyrells whatever may be the situation also bolton getting rickon is difficult because he does not know he is with davos.

[SynthFG]

While some parts I believe Cersei will never leave KL because she is far too greedy to ever give up any part of power. But post imprisonment she could quite possibly flee if say KL desends into turmoil, Tommen dies and the Tyrell banner men break with those supporting Ageon and others supporting the Tyrells possibly doing a grab at the Iron throne. I do expect that Cersei will die at the hands of Jamie when he returns to her beaten, lost, then yells at him for not coming to her like a trained dog, where upon Jamie calls her a whore and chokes her to death (I want this scene!).

Cerci's spies / LF revealing that Sansa is in the Vale could pull Cerci out of the Capital. especially if one or more of the Children die and she blames Sansa for it

A Lannister / Crown Army driven through the mountains in the Dead of Winter by Ser Robert Strong could be very entertaining and give us a chance for Shagga and co to make a reappearance

[BennC93]

This could very much work.

On Roose getting Rickon;

Davos finds Rickon and takes him back to the North he find out stannis is attacking Roose at winterfell and goes to meet him, ..... only to find stannis dead and Roose take him captive

[little & less]

I'm not sure we'll see another grand scale war when a representative from a region is trying to conquer all seven kingdoms. I think we'll see certain characters battle in their respective regions (for example, stannis & boltons in the north) while we wait on the Others and/or Dany to show up to Westeros.

[ktwse]

These aren't plotholes. We don't know how the battle between Stannis and Bolton will end, so Bolton winning and capturing Rickon later, or even losing and retreating and then capturing Rickon, are still possibilities.

It's only a possibility if Davos were to crash his ship close to the Dreadfort. He's heading to White Harbor, where Manderley still has around 10,000 men. No way Bolton is going to take that city.

This could very much work.

On Roose getting Rickon;

Davos finds Rickon and takes him back to the North he find out stannis is attacking Roose at winterfell and goes to meet him, ..... only to find stannis dead and Roose take him captive

Davos is not heading to Stannis, Davos promised to bring Rickon to White Harbor to win Manderley's support. I can't see him not honoring that agreement.

[The Sunset King]

Davos will first bring Rickon to White Harbor and check reports before making further moves.

Tommen's death, made highly probable due to the prediction Cersei keeps dwelling on, would cause a serious breach in the Tyrell/Lannister alliance. The Tyrells only care about supporting Tommen because of Margaery's marriage. The Tyrells will not support Myrcella gaining the throne unless a Tyrell is married to her, something which the Dorne, favorable to Aegon, may not allow to happen. The possible deaths of either Tommen and/or Margaery would have a very high probability of shattering the alliance and putting and end to cooperation between Tyrell and Lannister. This would cause more chaos and help Aegon a lot.

It is difficult to tell what exactly will happen in the Vale with the interactions between Sansa, LF, and the Vale aristocracy. LF's plan may have to be modified as a consequence of Rickon's return and perhaps the Blackfish appearing to request help in reclaiming the Riverlands.

The Faith Militant is another huge factor. The High Sparrow and his allies seem very discontent with the Lannisters and are looking for some alternative. Perhaps Aegon will be that alternative.

[Brandon Martell]

Davos is not heading to Stannis, Davos promised to bring Rickon to White Harbor to win Manderley's support. I can't see him not honoring that agreement.

We all know how most ASOIAF characters end up going out of their plans. Very few plans actually happen. For all we know, Davos might fail at capturing Rickon or get captured himself somehow. Whoever captures him and Rickon may for some reason want to deliver him to the Warden of the North, Roose, to get a reward for bringing the perfect bargaining hostage regarding the war with Stannis. Roose will keep both of them until Tommen dies and the Tyrells take over KL, and that's when he takes the opportunity and declares for King Rickon. I don't know if this is going to happen, but what I do know is that Davos isn't going to simply walk into Skagos, take Rickon, and head directly back to White Harbor.

It is difficult to tell what exactly will happen in the Vale with the interactions between Sansa, LF, and the Vale aristocracy. LF's plan may have to be modified as a consequence of Rickon's return and perhaps the Blackfish appearing to request help in reclaiming the Riverlands.

I'm actually expecting the Blackfish to appear near the end of the book, or maybe in book 7, with the real Jeyne Westerling and King Robb's son. That would be a perfect ending for the conflict over the Kingdom in the North.

The Faith Militant is another huge factor. The High Sparrow and his allies seem very discontent with the Lannisters and are looking for some alternative. Perhaps Aegon will be that alternative.

I actually forgot to count the Faith. They probably won't oppose whoever is ruling in King's Landing, unless it was Cersei. The Faith could become really, really strong in the coming book.

[Ser Uncle P]

Biggest snag is winter has finally come! It would be a massive plothole if a war on the scale of the WO5K was fought in winter

[nepaliman_7]

I think there's too many necessary factors for something like that to occur.

[Davos' fingertip]

i see all hell breaking loose in Winds of Winter, including the Wall. That would be crazy awesome. Then followed by Dany finally arriving. I think its the route Martin might be taking.

[Brandon Martell]

I think there's too many necessary factors for something like that to occur.

It's already happening. I'm just putting what could lead to the most chaotic scenario. Even without any of these factors happening, there's still war. Stannis is fighting Bolton, there will be a Tyrell vs Cersei conflict again (which will probably escalate to war), there's Martells vs Tyrells, Ironborn vs everyone, and most important of all, Aegon vs Tyrells and Lannisters.

Adding any of these factors will increase the conflict a lot. Even if only one of those happen, it's gonna make a big war.

The Vale declaring for Sansa = the entire Vale and probably a lot of the North and the Riverlands.

Roose declaring himself regent = a big part of the North will go to war against the south to take the Riverlands (part of the Kingdom in the North and the Trident).

Tommen dies = Tyrell vs Martell vs Lannister huge conflict

Oh, and wait for another scenario: Aeron finding Theon and using him to declare the Kingsmoot illegitimate, causing an Ironborn civil war.

[aryagonnakill]

It's already happening. I'm just putting what could lead to the most chaotic scenario. Even without any of these factors happening, there's still war. Stannis is fighting Bolton, there will be a Tyrell vs Cersei conflict again (which will probably escalate to war), there's Martells vs Tyrells, Ironborn vs everyone, and most important of all, Aegon vs Tyrells and Lannisters.

Adding any of these factors will increase the conflict a lot. Even if only one of those happen, it's gonna make a big war.

The Vale declaring for Sansa = the entire Vale and probably a lot of the North and the Riverlands.

Roose declaring himself regent = a big part of the North will go to war against the south to take the Riverlands (part of the Kingdom in the North and the Trident).

Tommen dies = Tyrell vs Martell vs Lannister huge conflict

Oh, and wait for another scenario: Aeron finding Theon and using him to declare the Kingsmoot illegitimate, causing an Ironborn civil war.

I don't like to make definitive statements, but there is a 0% chance of Roose Bolton leading a northern army to take control of the Riverlands during winter when the others are coming. Not to mention that in all likelyhood he would have already been defeated by Stannis. 0.

[revenant6]

I like it all - except Roose and Rickon. I"m thinking Manderly, Davos and Rickon.

The rest I like. It's going to be a huge mess - that becomes colossal when you add some dragons, Winter and Others to it.

[The Sunset King]

The upcoming book almost certainly will have more on screen battles than any previous one. It may be that, in order to accomodate fitting these battles into the book, the pre-battle manuevering will be made quicker and more efficient page-wise.

At an absolute minimum:

1. Stannis against Boltons and Freys in the Battle of Ice

2. Mereen against the besieging forces in the Battle of Fire

3. Aegon/Connington's planned seizure of Storm's End (this might be done in part through deception though and not be a huge scale event)

4. Virtually inevitable battle of the Golden Company against either Tyrell and/or Lannister forces following the taking of the Storm Lands.

Extremely probable battle:

If Stannis succeeds in the Battle of Ice, second Stannis vs Bolton round to determine who controls Winterfell

Other things that seem slated to happen in the TWOW or perhaps will be pushed into ADOS. Note that many of these might be off-screen:

Aegon's assault on King's Landing

Possible naval conflict at the Reach between Euron's fleet and that of the Redwynes

Faith Militant using its militias to engage in combat at some point

At some point, the Dorne's army will fight. Probably assisting Aegon and probably in TWOW

Ditto for the Vale, although it is much less clear who it will be fighting for.

This is not counting whatever Daenerys may still do. Daenerys may even fight in an intra-Dothraki struggle very early in TWOW to establish herself.