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Winds of Winter Total War - theory


Brandon Martell

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The situation of Westeros at the end of Dance With Dragons can set Westeros into total chaos if a few more things happen. First, Tommen dies. This will set the perfect scenario for a fight between the Tyrells and the Lannister, even better than Kevan's death. The Lannisters will obviously declare for Myrcella, while the Tyrells might declare for Margery. Then Sansa marries Harry the Heir and the Vale declares for Sansa the Queen in the North. Meanwhile Davos finds Rickon, but he is captured somehow by Roose Bolton. Bolton declares himself Lord Regent of the Kingdom in the North in the name of King Rickon Stark. Rickon, being just a baby, can't really resist and say otherwise.

In this way, we'll have 7 sides fighting in a total war over Westeros:

  • Tyrells and ruling in King's Landing
  • Lannisters, with Cersei probably returning to Casterly Rock
  • The Vale with Sansa
  • Roose Bolton with Rickon
  • Stannis
  • Euron Greyjoy
  • And let's not forget, Aegon Targaryen ruling from Storm's End

This would be a war bigger than the War of the Five Kings. The Martells can play all sides, Doran supports Myrcella while the Sand Snakes claim they are loyal to the Tyrells and stay in King's Landing while Arianne goes to Aegon. The North and the Riverlands will be split between many forces obviously.

What would spice things up even more is if Myrcella dies and suddenly the Lannisters have no claim and Stannis becomes the rightful heir regardless of whether Joffrey, Tommen, and Myrcella are Baratheons or Lannisters.

I think its more realistic that after Tommens theoretical murder, most likely by Littlefinger, since he said "the realm will not likely survive three queens." The queens being Margery, Cersei and Myrcella. When Tommen dies the Tyrells will retreat to Highgarden and most likely presume a marriage pact with Aegon. A pact or alliance will forge there but not for Aegon and Dorne. Cersei will be on Dorne's side but with not much force, she just holds King's Landing with Qyburn and Robert Strong. Her limited forces will be busy dealing with the Faith.

Euron will use this southern war to take apart Oldtown and the Arbor at atleast cripple them. The Ironmen will just weaken all the factions.

In the North it is most likely when the Manderlys attack the Freys, Ramsay will retreat to the Dreafort [seems unlikely but hes not an utter retard hes going to be cornered and outnumbered and going back into Winterfell would deem him a coward]. Roose will be dead and Stannis will have Winterfell but he will not be in posession Rickon. Ramsay won't be a threat in the North but will move with haste to attack Rickon before he is delivered to Stannis. There is also the crannogmen who will come to bend the knee to Jon. Maybe enough wildlings survive the riot for Jon to form his own vanguard to lead.

Littlefinger has his ENDS in mind, [hand of the king or king not sure which one] but he doesn't have all his plans because he is very calculated. He only wants to declare Sansa because he KNOWS Arya is false but when another Stark is found he'll find a way to change his plans. Truthfully though when unCat is conversing with Jamie he will reveal that Joffery sent the assassin and Tyrion killed him for it but he will ask to know before he dies WHO IS IT that told her that dagger was Tyrion's. That will be a moment that can effect even unCat. Because as much as she would LOVE to watch Walder Frey get raped and murder she would now want nothing more than Littlefingers head. And well unCat will be his downfall.

The Others are mainly misunderstood and probably have two factions in between them, One side that collaborates with the children of the forest and harbors an ancient relationship with the Starks. The second probably half human half whitewalker children like what SUPPOSEDLY may happen to Crasters sacrificed sons. There inability to fit into neither the worlds of men or Others makes them angry and want to kill everything. That conquest probably wont go too far South i think.

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Meereen will be a bloody mess with no clear winner.

I'm hoping for a Stannis victory at Winterfell. I feel he deserves one after the Blackwater.

Aegon will take Storm's End without much difficulty and gain Dorne's allegiance.

Sansa is finally going to do something (hopefully).

Tyrell v Lannister seems inevitable so I think it might not happen (when does anything play out the way it's expected).

The Others will probably make a move in tWoW as well.

Euron is going to keep up his raiding and cause havoc in the Reach.

I'd say Blackfish is going to the Vale and the Riverlands and the West will have some time to rebuild.

The Dothraki showed up for a reason (either to hinder Dany or help her).

Also, Rickon is a Targaryen.

What the frack? How is Rickon a Targ, I think Cate would remember being bedded by a Targ.
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I think its more realistic that after Tommens theoretical murder, most likely by Littlefinger, since he said "the realm will not likely survive three queens." The queens being Margery, Cersei and Myrcella. When Tommen dies the Tyrells will retreat to Highgarden and most likely presume a marriage pact with Aegon. A pact or alliance will forge there but not for Aegon and Dorne. Cersei will be on Dorne's side but with not much force, she just holds King's Landing with Qyburn and Robert Strong. Her limited forces will be busy dealing with the Faith.

I don't think Littlefinger knew about Myrcella. I think he was talking about Sansa as the third queen.

What the frack? How is Rickon a Targ, I think Cate would remember being bedded by a Targ.

It was Jon. That's why she's always angry at him. She can't forgive herself or him for cheating on her husband.

I know it sounds messed up, but it's not incestuous at all when you think about it.

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  • 2 weeks later...

So you think that the either Stannis or Bolton will be done in the first half of aWoW? really? I also want to point out that all the players in the North (even the Karstarks for the most part) are in or around WF. If your theory is right, the North story would be mostlly over and they can start getting ready for the Others.

I really don't see the battle of WF deciding much of any thing. It will be bloody mess with lots of nobodies killed with a few secondary, and third tier dead or wounded. Everybody body will spilt up, be run off, or head home.

I see Mereen as a final end it type battle, that while looks like it will be one sided, it won't be that cut and dry. Dany will win, and start the next leg of her journey, but it won't be as clear a victory as other have been.

Yeah, a battle in Winterfell would probably only hurt Stannis, even though he might have the support of White Harbor. If Davos finds Rickon though, it might change that.

I think Dany's done with Mereen. Before she rode Drogon off, it was obvious she knew she didn't want to be there anymore. She'll go back, burn some people, get her Unsullied, handmaidens, and Ser Barristan then go somewhere else.

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In the epilogue of ADWD, Vary's makes it pretty clear that he wants war between Highgarden and Dorne. He also seems to be under the impression that Cersie will be able to retake control of Kingslanding in order to further destroy the realm. Vary's knows that the only way Cersei will be able to retake control of Kingslanding is through Tommen. In addition, The faith will have to pronounce Margery guilty of adultery. Vary's is a person who gets what he wants, so i believe all of the things I previously listed will come to pass.

I believe Doran Martell will die in the first half of winds effectively leaving the sandsnakes in control. This will lead to the crowning of Myrcella (I can't see any other way for Myrcella to be crowned). Following all of this. Aegon will actually side with Highgarden and likely marry Margery, or at least come close.

which means:

Aegon/Tyrells vs Dorne

Tyrells vs Greyjoys

The BIG unknowns to me are how the North will play out and the Vale. I'm of the opinion that Stannis will likely beat the Boltons but will not gain the north. Manderly will use Rickon to rally the north (which conviently allows for Stannis to retreat to the Nightfort to deal with what can only be described as "The War of the Wall")

As always, none of us really now what LF is going to do. Depending on when LF/Sansa gains control of the East, I could imagine The vale joining with the north to destroy the Frey's and the Lannisters, finally. The North/Vale combo would also be the most powerful army in Westoros at that point, Which would make them perfect targets for Dany and her dragons ( A Field of Fire round two)

What do you all think?

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As always, none of us really now what LF is going to do. Depending on when LF/Sansa gains control of the East, I could imagine The vale joining with the north to destroy the Frey's and the Lannisters, finally. The North/Vale combo would also be the most powerful army in Westoros at that point, Which would make them perfect targets for Dany and her dragons ( A Field of Fire round two)

Why? The North is mostly broken in terms of armies. Both Stannis and Bolton have relatively few men. The Vale has a good number, but I think the armies of the Reach are still very strong. After all, the only battles they were in are Blackwater, the siege of Storm's End, and Ironborn raids. Dorne is also still really strong.
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Truthfully though when unCat is conversing with Jamie he will reveal that Joffery sent the assassin and Tyrion killed him for it but he will ask to know before he dies WHO IS IT that told her that dagger was Tyrion's

Jamie does not know about joffrey sending the assassin only tyrion figured it out.

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The Others are mainly misunderstood and probably have two factions in between them, One side that collaborates with the children of the forest and harbors an ancient relationship with the Starks. The second probably half human half whitewalker children like what SUPPOSEDLY may happen to Crasters sacrificed sons.

What is the basis for your theory??

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I believe Doran Martell will die in the first half of winds effectively leaving the sandsnakes in control. This will lead to the crowning of Margery (I can't see any other way for Margery to be crowned).

How can margery be crowned by death of doran martell ?

Aegon/Tyrells vs Dorne

Aegon will not go against dorne or for that matter dorne against him remember elia was dornish and he is her son.

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Jamie does not know about joffrey sending the assassin only tyrion figured it out.

He does. Tyrion told him after Jaime told Tyrion about Tysha.

How can margery be crowned by death of doran martell ?

I think he meant Myrcella.

Yeah I agree it doesn't make much sense for Aegon to stand with the Tyrells against Dorne. Doran already sent Arianne to Aegon. I suppose where Aegon stands depends largely on what Arianne does.

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He does. Tyrion told him after Jaime told Tyrion about Tysha.I think he meant Myrcella.Yeah I agree it doesn't make much sense for Aegon to stand with the Tyrells against Dorne. Doran already sent Arianne to Aegon. I suppose where Aegon stands depends largely on what Arianne does.
I did mean myrcella, my bad.I don't think it makes much sense for aegon to side with Highgarden either, but it's only one of two ways I could imagine myrcella being crowned. The other way would be for Myrcella to marry Aegon which I see as at least equally unlikely.
Why? The North is mostly broken in terms of armies. Both Stannis and Bolton have relatively few men. The Vale has a good number, but I think the armies of the Reach are still very strong. After all, the only battles they were in are Blackwater, the siege of Storm's End, and Ironborn raids. Dorne is also still really strong.
It was all just a guess and the north isn't that broken. Between Stannis' current troops and Manderlies you probably have 10000-15000 men, who knows how many more could be gained from all the other lords in the north. You gotta bet that there's at least 15000-20000 fighting men left in the north.
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It was all just a guess and the north isn't that broken. Between Stannis' current troops and Manderlies you probably have 10000-15000 men, who knows how many more could be gained from all the other lords in the north. You gotta bet that there's at least 15000-20000 fighting men left in the north.

I doubt it. Stannis managed to get a few thousands from the mountain tribes, but the ones from other Northern lords are mostly old men and green boys. I can't remember where that's mentioned, but I do remember that it was mentioned. In a Theon chapter, maybe?

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I've kind of been thinking (wishfully, perhaps) that there would be a ton of battles/skirmishes that would settle most of the issues around Westeros, and then leading up to the seventh book would be where the Light v Dark showdown finally comes into play. Or maybe all these battles themselves will be wiped out by the coming of the Others.

We know it's going to start with two battles: Stannis' and Dany's.

Hopefully something goes down in the Eyrie.

Wildlings will probably wipe out the Night's Watch and will then form up as Jon Snow's army.

Arya and the wolves! Maybe she can join with Sansa's knights of the Vale to fall on the Frey's outside of Riverrun.

Chaos in King's Landing would be wicked. Lannisters attacked by Tyrells, who are attacked by Martells.

And some stuff with the Targs, of course. Maybe Aegon dies in an epic battle which still ends in a JonCon victory, and shortly after Dany arrives and adopts her nephews forces.

Or however it ends up happening. That will be good too, I trust.

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