The Iron Bank - bang for your buck

[Free Northman]

Interesting that the only other person the Iron Bank have a signed contract with is Jon Snow.

So if Stannis should die, would they not be tempted to shift their allegiance to the only other person who they have trust in dealing with?

Especially if his claim to the Throne comes to light.

[MrsManderly]

I would not underestimate the importance of money to all players in TWOW.

Being able to source food from the Free Cities, which of course costs money, I think will prove key to sruvival through the winter, not only the NW and Stannis' army stuck in the north, but of Westeros' population in general. It's not for nothing that the Starks warn of "winter coming" - it is evidently a major challenge to keep the population fed and warm through a winter, even in normal circumstances in Westeros. And this winter is coming off the back of a few years of war and general mess. Brienne, Arya and Jaime's POVs in the Riverlands emphasize how war devastation has already resulted in food shortages in that part of the country and there are several mentions of how people were scrambling, unsuccesfully it seemed, to get another harvest in before the winter. The Reach is better off but its stores too are presumably being depleted by Euron's raiding. The Vale remains unaffected but given its size it is difficult to imagine that it can feed the entire country, even if Littlefinger were to open its stores to all and sundry - which of course he won't do.

So I think food scarcity will be a major theme in TWOW and when people are starving, this tends to breed riots, unrest, religious zealots and ruling heads rolling. All of which I think spells out a bigger role for the Iron Bank.

What I am curious about is what attitude the Iron Bank would take to the Targaryen claimants, Daenarys in particular (if she ever makes it west, that is!). It may be a foreshadowing that Dany already has a track record of fighting to gain control and "free" people, which it then turns out she can't feed.

[Free Northman]

I would not underestimate the importance of money to all players in TWOW.

Being able to source food from the Free Cities, which of course costs money, I think will prove key to sruvival through the winter, not only the NW and Stannis' army stuck in the north, but of Westeros' population in general. It's not for nothing that the Starks warn of "winter coming" - it is evidently a major challenge to keep the population fed and warm through a winter, even in normal circumstances in Westeros. And this winter is coming off the back of a few years of war and general mess. Brienne, Arya and Jaime's POVs in the Riverlands emphasize how war devastation has already resulted in food shortages in that part of the country and there are several mentions of how people were scrambling, unsuccesfully it seemed, to get another harvest in before the winter. The Reach is better off but its stores too are presumably being depleted by Euron's raiding. The Vale remains unaffected but given its size it is difficult to imagine that it can feed the entire country, even if Littlefinger were to open its stores to all and sundry - which of course he won't do.

So I think food scarcity will be a major theme in TWOW and when people are starving, this tends to breed riots, unrest, religious zealots and ruling heads rolling. All of which I think spells out a bigger role for the Iron Bank.

What I am curious about is what attitude the Iron Bank would take to the Targaryen claimants, Daenarys in particular (if she ever makes it west, that is!). It may be a foreshadowing that Dany already has a track record of fighting to gain control and "free" people, which it then turns out she can't feed.

The Braavosi hate Dragons. They will not ally with Daenerys.

[MrsManderly]

The Braavosi hate Dragons. They will not ally with Daenerys.

Aha! I stand informed!

[Tini]

If Dany ever makes it to Westeros, she'll have a large fleet. And ships will be needed to bring food in from the Free Cities. Unless she gives up Meereen completely, she'll even have a city that can provide the food. That is an advantage the lords in Westeros don't have.

They will have to hire ships in addition to buying food, and I wonder how many ships for hire there are that are willing to make the trip between Westeros and Essos in winter time, repeatedly. I guess Stannis can use Manderly's fleet but they are warships, and I don't know if their crews are up to navigating the Narrow Sea in winter time.

I wonder if winter will force the warring parties into alliances they may not otherwise consider. Alliances with the Ironborn to get sailors, and ships. Alliances to get access to the Lannister gold mines. Alliances to get provisions from the Free Cities - not only with Stannis and the Iron Bank, but also with Queen Daenerys. She is currently ruling at least one of the Cities (well, Barristan Selmy does) and she may well conquer others. The slaves of Essos are waiting for her, and they are the ones producing most of the food. Maybe we'll even see an alliance between the Braavosi and Daenerys despite the fact that the Braavosi hate dragons. There already is an alliance with wildlings up North.

Not that the alliances would last past the end of winter.

[Free Northman]

Jon can bring in unlimited food for the entire North, given his contract with the Iron Bank. Then when he becomes King, he just makes the Lannisters pay for it all.

Problem solved.

[Darth Rivers]

Yeah, good luck importing enough food for millions, scattered across an area the size of European Russia. But yeah, the IB is probably a device to put Jon on the throne. I hate that bastard.

[Crystal Grower]

The curious thing here is that Kevan didn't start repayment to the Iron Bank when he was in charge. It seems that Lannisters don't understand the threat of pissing off the Iron Bank at all.

[Free Northman]

Yeah, good luck importing enough food for millions, scattered across an area the size of European Russia. But yeah, the IB is probably a device to put Jon on the throne. I hate that bastard.

During Winter, people gather at the Wintertowns surrounding the holdfasts of their lords.

In this particular Winter, with the threat of the Others, they're probably gonna gather together in even larger numbers.

So Eastwatch, Karhold, White Harbor and probably Barrowton will be the key food depots during Winter, I reckon. Given the cold, food is not going to spoil, and as long as the White Knife stays navigable, the interior will be reachable by barge and boat as well.

Essentially, I don't think this Winter is really going to last it's full 10 years. There is just no way to deal with that. I think the victory over the Others will break Winter's grip just when things start looking really dire, 2 or 3 years into the Winter.

[Tini]

The curious thing here is that Kevan didn't start repayment to the Iron Bank when he was in charge. It seems that Lannisters don't understand the threat of pissing off the Iron Bank at all.

Kevan wasn't in charge all that long, and he was preoccupied during that time with more pressing issues.

The Iron Bank was no immediate threat to anyone's life. They had been really calm about Cersei defaulting on their payments, all things considered. No open threats, no assassins, nothing.

Contrast this with the explosive situation that Cersei had created by alienating their Tyrell allies, the High Septon and the Faith, not to mention the charges of incest and adultery that jeopardized her life and Tommen's hold on the throne, and it becomes clear why Kevan didn't immediately set out to make peace with the Iron Bank.

I think it possible that Ser Kevan would have started negotiations with the Iron Bank once Cersei's trial was over.

[Crystal Grower]

I think it possible that Ser Kevan would have started negotiations with the Iron Bank once Cersei's trial was over.

Kevan sends Harys Swift to treat with Myrish bankers for money to start repayment to the Iron Bank and new loans, and if that fails, to treat with the Iron Bank directly. If Kevin truly understands the Iron Bank's modus operanti, he would know that treating with the Iron Bank directly is useless--only immediately starting loan repayment can stay the Iron Bank's wrath, and even then no new loans would be forthcoming because the previous delay in repayment ruined their reputation as a bank client. Kevin also considers paying the crown debt using Lannister gold as a backup options while it really should have been the first option because it can start immediately. Any delays in loan repayment just results in more and more chances that the Iron Bank backs an enemy--an unnecessary risk.

On some level, it makes sense for Lannisters to be ignorant in dealing with the Iron Bank. The Westerlands is very far away from Braavos, and Lannisters probably never had to borrow from others with their own productive gold mines. Having large ammount of debt owed to foreign entities is a situation they likely never experienced before.

[WinterWarrior]

I agree that the Iron Bank will have a HUGE role in the story moving forward. I think it is the only organization that is truly effective, organized and powerful that is now operating in Westeros. Cersei is so stupid (I loathe her) that she cannot look beyond the walls of the Red Keep. She will not listen to the Iron Bank and diverted their payments, she will not listen to the Wall and the threats posed by the Others, and she will not listen to anything about Danaerys and her dragons.

All three will be her downfall. What the IB, Others and Dany do as the story evolves will be most interesting.

[Tini]

Kevan sends Harys Swift to treat with Myrish bankers for money to start repayment to the Iron Bank and new loans, and if that fails, to treat with the Iron Bank directly. If Kevin truly understands the Iron Bank's modus operanti, he would know that treating with the Iron Bank directly is useless--only immediately starting loan repayment can stay the Iron Bank's wrath, and even then no new loans would be forthcoming because the previous delay in repayment ruined their reputation as a bank client. Kevin also considers paying the crown debt using Lannister gold as a backup options while it really should have been the first option because it can start immediately. Any delays in loan repayment just results in more and more chances that the Iron Bank backs an enemy--an unnecessary risk.

On some level, it makes sense for Lannisters to be ignorant in dealing with the Iron Bank. The Westerlands is very far away from Braavos, and Lannisters probably never had to borrow from others with their own productive gold mines. Having large ammount of debt owed to foreign entities is a situation they likely never experienced before.

What Lannister gold? Or more correctly whose Lannister gold?

The gold mines don't belong to Kevan or Cersei. The mines belong to the Lannister family. They just receive an income from those gold mines, just as many other members of the extended Lannister family do. They cannot simply decide to divert anything but their own share from the mines - and do you think their Lannister kin would look favorably on a perceived attempt to steal their share of the Lannister fortune to pay for the Crown's debts?

So I understand that Ser Kevan is considering the gold mines as a backup plan because that will cause strife in the family at a time when they need to show strength, and unity.

I am not even sure if Ser Kevan demonstrates that he doesn't know the Iron Bank's modus operandi. How do you know that treating with the Iron Bank directly is useless unless you have tried? Sending out Harys Swift, Ser Kevan covered all the bases - and if that failed, then it was maybe time for the backup plan.

[The Sunset King]

No, I don't think that will work. The lords aren't sellswords, and they would bridle at the suggestion that their loyalty is for sale. They might even blame Stannis for shutting off their credit in order to force them to their knees, and abandon their liege lord in his time of need. I think they'd rather turn to Aegon for help, or continue to support Tommen Baratheon.

What does it mean actually that the Iron Bank has shut off credits on Westerosi lords? They cannot foreclose the lords that fail to pay their loans back immediately. The lords will not get any more money from the Iron Bank but that seems to be the only effect that their decision immediately has. Unless Stannis takes the throne, there is little chance that the Iron Bank can force them to pay back. They may send out assassins but the lords will expect that.

The money will buy sellswords, and it may buy food. Stannis has already given order to hire sellswords; he may come to realize that food is even more important. The lords are not starving. They have stores of food set aside for their own use. The populace is left to fend for themselves. Stannis' host and its cannibalism problem is just a small taste of what is to come.

Jon Snow realized this already, and he bargained with the Iron Bank for food. Food for the people at the Wall, even for wildlings, not only for leaders. Queen Selyse and Melisandre don't understand his actions any better than most of the Westerosi lords do: they see that there is not enough food for everyone, so keep it for yourself and let the others starve.

Keeping soldiers fed is vital to the war effort as well. Starved soldiers don't fight well. Littlefinger knows that much, the stores of the Vale are full. His forces will be well fed when others starve, and that will give them an edge when hunger weakens their opponents. It will also give him the soldiers' gratitude and loyalty.

Stannis probably intends to buy food for his soldiers as well. I don't know if he realizes that he can buy the gratitude and loyalty of the simple folk by feeding them - and turn them on their lords. I don't know if he will consider them important enough to provide food for them - but then, he did respond to the call for help from the Wall when nobody else did. Even if that took some prompting.

Too much time has elapsed since the credit closing off and too much damage has been inflicted on the overall viability of the Lannister cause (the growing Tyrell-Lannister division, Faith's arrests, emergence and continuance of pretenders) for it to be probable that resentment against Stannis's connection to the Iron Bank (still a secret as of yet) would reinforce loyalty to Tommen. Furthermore, the fact that the Iron Throne played a huge role in inflicting the wrath of the Iron Bank on itself must be known to many. The present winter will make the choice starker: Stay with a declining Lannister faction that has a very exhausted treasury or consider joining Stannis who appears to be receiving supplies from Essos and has better commercial terms with the Free Cities. Aegon is a third factor that could skew this though.

One of the AFFC chapters mentioned how some of the merchants viewed the refusing of new loans and the rapid calling in of debts as being highly undesirable and sought the crown's action. Action which was not forthcoming.

As to whether the lords can be bought, they perhaps cannot typically be bought outright through gold but an examination of the lords that Jaime deals with in the Riverlands demonstrates how much greed rather than honor motivates many of them. The lords would bristle publicly in many cases, but many, especially the lower level ones, would find it tempting to join Stannis. Additionally, Jon had this to say in ADWD about the possible consequences of the Iron Bank's favor toward Stannis:

"...the Braavosi would give him all the gold and silver he required, coin enough to buy a dozen sellsword companies, to bribe a hundred lords, to keep his men paid, fed, clothed, and armed."

It definitely seems that food will have a huge affect on support bases. It is unlikely that Stannis will simply allow the North to starve when he is using it as a basis of operations against the Others. The Reach and the Vale are well supplied but many lords in other areas might be forced to ditch the Lannister cause once they find that the Iron Throne cannot and will not help them. It is less certain what Stannis will do, but he will seem to be much more viable in the perception of many now than he was previously.

The Lannisters have consistently mismanaged their use of resources and will almost certainly continue to do so during the winter, especially with the recent leadership die-offs. They are not going to have an easy time retaining loyalty when conditions get desperate; such happened in ACOK when food prices soared and corruption boosted support for alternate claimants to the throne.

[aryagonnakill]

I believe the struggle for food in the Riverlands will be the worst and that both Littlefinger and Stannis will attempt to use this to their advantage. Stannis will have food coming in through white harbor and if he thinks he can gain the Riverlands by sending food down the neck or strait up the trident then he will.

[Tini]

@The Sunset King: I think you need to make a distinction between the Lannisters in King's Landing and the Lannisters in other places, like Lannisport. King's Landing is mismanaged. Lannisters in other places may manage their resources much better.

Of course Stannis would be ill-advised to let the North starve, but I don't think the North is starving. The Night's Watch and the Wildlings at the Wall are a special case, they need outside support. I think the rest of the North will survive winter without outside support. The South will be hit much harder, and Stannis would be well-advised to feed them, too, if he can. Simple folk he keeps from starving are people likely to support him against their old lords.

[The Sunset King]

Those are good and valid points. The Lannister house in Casterly Rock seems to have been generally well managed in political and economic terms; definitely better than what has been going on in the capital recently.

Casterly Rock will likely hold itself together but the ruling elite in King's Landing may start to suffer worse slips of confidence as the winter intensifies. What may happen is that many will look to see how well managed are the territories under the control of Stannis or Aegon compared to the general efficacy of the Iron Throne when deciding whether it is safer to defect or to remain loyal. If King's Landing decides to raise taxes (Kevan Lannister considered that it might become necessary), that could be another issue. The Tyrells will likely try to take positive action but face distractions, numerous opponents, and the problem of Varys and the Sand Snakes sparking problems in KL.

Although things like military size and the like will continue to matter, factors such as long term ability to inspire long term confidence in each candidate's ability to hold the throne or weather the present war/winter season may began to increasingly affect which side the population wants to be on.

The Riverlands in particular seem like a spot where defections away from the Iron Throne might happen, provided the Lannister forces stationed there do not remain a permanent or insurmountable threat. There may be major disturbances and turbulence in the Crowlands as well.

[Free Northman]

What Lannister gold? Or more correctly whose Lannister gold?

The gold mines don't belong to Kevan or Cersei. The mines belong to the Lannister family. They just receive an income from those gold mines, just as many other members of the extended Lannister family do. They cannot simply decide to divert anything but their own share from the mines - and do you think their Lannister kin would look favorably on a perceived attempt to steal their share of the Lannister fortune to pay for the Crown's debts?

So I understand that Ser Kevan is considering the gold mines as a backup plan because that will cause strife in the family at a time when they need to show strength, and unity.

I am not even sure if Ser Kevan demonstrates that he doesn't know the Iron Bank's modus operandi. How do you know that treating with the Iron Bank directly is useless unless you have tried? Sending out Harys Swift, Ser Kevan covered all the bases - and if that failed, then it was maybe time for the backup plan.

Hang on. The gold belongs to the Lord of Casterly Rock - the head of the Lannister family. To the extent that the identity of the Lord of Casterly Rock is currently a bit of a mystery - this might be a limiting factor at the moment.

Is it Jaime? Firstly, he is a Kingsguard knight, and he is missing.

Is it Cersei? She is attainted as a traitor and I'm not sure if this affects her rigth to inherit.

Is it Tommen? With Cersei perhaps disqualified, he is her oldest son.

Is it Genna or some sibling of Tywins?

Once that issue is resolved, the heir to Casterly Rock can spend all the gold as he or she pleases.

[Tini]

Hang on. The gold belongs to the Lord of Casterly Rock - the head of the Lannister family. To the extent that the identity of the Lord of Casterly Rock is currently a bit of a mystery - this might be a limiting factor at the moment.

Is it Jaime? Firstly, he is a Kingsguard knight, and he is missing.

Is it Cersei? She is attainted as a traitor and I'm not sure if this affects her rigth to inherit.

Is it Tommen? With Cersei perhaps disqualified, he is her oldest son.

Is it Genna or some sibling of Tywins?

Once that issue is resolved, the heir to Casterly Rock can spend all the gold as he or she pleases.

Cersei is lord of Casterly Rock, following her father Tywin - Ser Kevan himself reminded her of that. She inherited the title upon her father's death, before any charges were brought against her. Due to the charges levelled against her and the upcoming trial, she cannot fully fill that role, cannot make decisions regarding the mines. And Kevan may be Tommen's guardian but he is not in control of the mines. Another reason why Ser Kevan is looking for alternatives.

I am sure that the lord of Casterly Rock has gold, too, as part of his personal fortune. I don't think his personal fortune would be enough to pay the crown's debts, though. The mines as a whole might be enough but I don't think they are personal possessions - he must keep them for the family, for the lords of the Rock that follow him. And they don't provide unlimited gold - when they are depleted, the gold is gone.

The lord of Casterly Rock may be considered the owner of the mines, but he has a responsibility to the Lannister family who are shareholders of a sort. Ser Kevan stated that his father left all his children well provided for, that he receives an ample income from the mines. If that was common practice, many Lannister lines may be receiving income from the gold mines - a share of the proceeds. They would object to the source of their income, their inheritance, being used to pay for the Crown's debts - Baratheon debts. Why aren't the Stormlands paying those debts?

I think the gold mines are like Casterly Rock. They belong to the lord of the Rock but he cannot do with them as he wishes - he cannot sell them, he cannot even pass them on to an heir of his choice. He cannot do with them whatever he pleases.

[Free Northman]

Cersei is lord of Casterly Rock, following her father Tywin - Ser Kevan himself reminded her of that. She inherited the title upon her father's death, before any charges were brought against her. Due to the charges levelled against her and the upcoming trial, she cannot fully fill that role, cannot make decisions regarding the mines. And Kevan may be Tommen's guardian but he is not in control of the mines. Another reason why Ser Kevan is looking for alternatives.

I am sure that the lord of Casterly Rock has gold, too, as part of his personal fortune. I don't think his personal fortune would be enough to pay the crown's debts, though. The mines as a whole might be enough but I don't think they are personal possessions - he must keep them for the family, for the lords of the Rock that follow him. And they don't provide unlimited gold - when they are depleted, the gold is gone.

The lord of Casterly Rock may be considered the owner of the mines, but he has a responsibility to the Lannister family who are shareholders of a sort. Ser Kevan stated that his father left all his children well provided for, that he receives an ample income from the mines. If that was common practice, many Lannister lines may be receiving income from the gold mines - a share of the proceeds. They would object to the source of their income, their inheritance, being used to pay for the Crown's debts - Baratheon debts. Why aren't the Stormlands paying those debts?

I think the gold mines are like Casterly Rock. They belong to the lord of the Rock but he cannot do with them as he wishes - he cannot sell them, he cannot even pass them on to an heir of his choice. He cannot do with them whatever he pleases.

Totally disagree. The Lord of Casterly Rock has absolute power over the Westerlands. Just like the Lord of Winterfell has absolute power over the North.

I am not aware of any of the mines being owned by other Houses in the Westerlands, as e.g. the silver mines in the White Harbor area are owned by Lord Manderly. My understanding is that House Lannister directly owns the gold mines and can do with it whatever they please.