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Ser Illin'

What Varys Doesn't Say in the Epilogue...

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Aegon is the one who tells Tyrion about the replacement baby:

He had been born at the Pisswater Bend, a street of King's Landing. His father was a tanner, and his mother had died at birth. The tanner sold his boy to Varys for a jug of Arbor gold. The man had other sons, but wanted to experience the taste of Arbor gold for once in his life. Varys then arranged the swap between the two infants boys. Elia received the Pisswater prince, Varys took custody of the real Aegon.

Also what is the purpose of Dany's vision of Rhaegar in HotU if the real Aegon is dead? Why would we be shown Rhaegar claiming that his is a Song of Ice and Fire if he is already dead before the story begins?

EDIT: The direct quote from Tyrion's chapter

“That was not me. I told you. That was some tan­ner’s son from Pis­swa­ter Bend whose moth­er died birthing him. His fa­ther sold him to Lord Varys for a jug of Ar­bor gold. He had oth­er sons but had nev­er tast­ed Ar­bor gold. Varys gave the Pis­swa­ter boy to my la­dy moth­er and car­ried me away.”

Thanks! I couldn't remember if any of Aegon's folks ever actually made he case for it or if Tyrion just assumed.

I do think Rhaegar could have been wrong about which child it was; after all, at first he thought it was himself.

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My take on Illyrio and Varys' scheme is, they really did plan to put Aegon on the Iron Throne all along but that Aegon is neither a Targaryen nor a Blackfire but simply Illyrio's son by his wife, who may have had enough Valyrian blood to make the boy's appearance Targaryenish (silver hair).

My reason for thinking "Aegon" is a Blackfyre and not just someone with Valyrian blood is the story in A Feast for Crows about the black dragon (the symbol of the Blackfyres) sign that gets chopped down and thrown across the river, but eventually drifts back, but this time falsely looks red (the symbol of the Targaryens) from rust.

I do agree that he's Illyrio's son though; I just think the mother was a Blackfyre, hence the emphasis on "the male line" of the Blackfyres being dead.

Also what is the purpose of Dany's vision of Rhaegar in HotU if the real Aegon is dead? Why would we be shown Rhaegar claiming that his is a Song of Ice and Fire if he is already dead before the story begins?

Because, although Rhaegar is wrong about it being Aegon, he IS right that it's his son who will have the song of ice and fire, that son being Jon Snow, whose mother was ice and father was fire. I mean, think about it; who's going to be important enough that they're given the collective title of the book series? Someone who was just introduced in Book 5? Or someone who's been a POV character from Book 1?

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But to whom was Varys talking? To Kevan, a dying man?? Pointless!

No, I think he was talking to a pair of ears hidden in the walls, a spy for someone who was to be fed with false assumptions. maybe one of the little birds was a traitor and Varys was using his so very passionate and convincing speech for a little desinformation game.

And who was to be convinced? Who was at the receiving end of Varys' message? Who was go be manipulated?

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But to whom was Varys talking? To Kevan, a dying man?? Pointless!

No, I think he was talking to a pair of ears hidden in the walls, a spy for someone who was to be fed with false assumptions. maybe one of the little birds was a traitor and Varys was using his so very passionate and convincing speech for a little desinformation game.

And who was to be convinced? Who was at the receiving end of Varys' message? Who was go be manipulated?

I think, more likely, it was just for his little birds in general. Varys and Illyrio are probably the only two people who know Aegon's true identity, so it'd be very bad thinking to say "Aegon isn't real" in front of his birds.

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But to whom was Varys talking? To Kevan, a dying man?? Pointless!

No, I think he was talking to a pair of ears hidden in the walls, a spy for someone who was to be fed with false assumptions. maybe one of the little birds was a traitor and Varys was using his so very passionate and convincing speech for a little desinformation game.

And who was to be convinced? Who was at the receiving end of Varys' message? Who was go be manipulated?

Varys is an actor; he likes to show off. Besides which, he can never be sure that none of his little birds are really little moles, so he's playing it safe. Safe and over-dramatic.

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Exactly. It's not unimpeachable evidence, but has anyone (who might know) actually said that there was a baby switch?

Varys doesn't. Does Connington? If I recall that conversation correctly, Tyrion does all the talking.

I'm not saying Aegon isn't really Aegon - I don't think he is but I am far from certain, but claiming there is more evidence that he is the real Aegon than isn't is silly to me.

Again, it's hardly solid evidence, but I'm pretty sure Jaime (I think) recalls the baby "Aegon" being presented to Robert so badly mutilated and brutalized that no-one could look at him much less identify him positively, but that Tywin says that it is Aegon and no-one has any reason to argue. It's at least enough reason to keep alive the possibility- it seems as though it has to be either Chekhov's Gun or a red herring.

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I hate — HATE — Dany. I don't want her on the throne or anywhere near it. My "precious little queen" she most certainly is not.

But I do think that Aegon is a Blackfyre, not Aegon Targaryen, and that Varys and Illyrio were never actually helping Dany and Viserys.

Then why give Dany three hugely valuable dragons eggs? Why not save them for Aegon? Why ship Dany and Viserys off to the Dothraki in hopes that they would die when you could have just slit their throats in their sleep? If they weren't in the business of helping them why waste any time and resources on them? Them being alive only hurts Aegons chances of holding the Throne.

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But to whom was Varys talking? To Kevan, a dying man?? Pointless!

No, I think he was talking to a pair of ears hidden in the walls, a spy for someone who was to be fed with false assumptions. maybe one of the little birds was a traitor and Varys was using his so very passionate and convincing speech for a little desinformation game.

And who was to be convinced? Who was at the receiving end of Varys' message? Who was go be manipulated?

In GoT, LF tells Ned that there are 3 people in KL who have little birds : Varys, LF and Cersei. Varys would not want Cersei knowing how Kevan died, and she has probably lost all her connections by that time anyway. LF, on the other hand, would be a suitable target. He has little birds and he has his own schemes in progress.

In Cyvasse, the King is one of the pieces. The Cyvasse player doesn't want to be the King he just controls it like any other piece. Perhaps the metaphor is that:

Cyvasse is the Game of Thrones.

LF/Varys are the primary players who face off constantly.

They aren't trying win the throne for themselves, obviously, they are just playing the game for the fun of trying to beat each other.

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Then why give Dany three hugely valuable dragons eggs? Why not save them for Aegon? Why ship Dany and Viserys off to the Dothraki in hopes that they would die when you could have just slit their throats in their sleep? If they weren't in the business of helping them why waste any time and resources on them? Them being alive only hurts Aegons chances of holding the Throne.

Why give Dany three hugely valuable dragon eggs? So that she can buy her husband some ships to get him across to Westeros

Why send Dany and Viserys off with Dothraki instead of just killing them outright? The Targaryens still have some value - you don't just throw them in the trash, you milk what value you can from them, then you kill them - it is wasteful not to.

Dany and Viserys were being set up to be the villains - the cruel, wicked, mad offspring from mad Aerys. Aegon was being set up to be the hero - the brave son of prince charming Rhaegar.

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In GoT, LF tells Ned that there are 3 people in KL who have little birds : Varys, LF and Cersei. Varys would not want Cersei knowing how Kevan died, and she has probably lost all her connections by that time anyway. LF, on the other hand, would be a suitable target. He has little birds and he has his own schemes in progress.

Qyburn also tells Cersei that he is using some of Varys's contacts. I think that Varys is feeding some of his little birds misinformation to pass on to Qyburn for him to pass on to Cersei. Varys's 'Aegon' speech is just him reinforcing the 'official' story to them, giving them the right words to pass on. By making them part of Kevan's murder, Varys is bonding his little birds even further into his debt - little birds with blood on their hands should watch what they say.

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Dany and Viserys were being set up to be the villains - the cruel, wicked, mad offspring from mad Aerys. Aegon was being set up to be the hero - the brave son of prince charming Rhaegar.

I think it was Dany who described a mummer's dragon as "something for the hero to fight." Clearly Varys is setting Aegon up as the hero of Westeros. Maybe Dany will be the mummer's dragon?

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I think it was Dany who described a mummer's dragon as "something for the hero to fight." Clearly Varys is setting Aegon up as the hero of Westeros. Maybe Dany will be the mummer's dragon?

If the Mummers dragon is someone the hero is set up to fight, and Aegon is being setup as a hero then Danny wouldnt be the mummers dragon. The prophecy didnt read as her being the mummers dragon anyway.

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Why would Varys go to the trouble of having these kids tongues cut out if they could just give away secrets to anyone? I have a feeling that when learning their "letters" that they are taught a code alphabet so that noone else can read the messages they pass. Qyburn thinks he's taken over the spy network but he is only dealing with lowlifes and informers that Varys probably dealt with on the side. If anything as mentioned upthread he says these things for the benefit of the white raven which could be warged by BR, assuming he is lying at all.

This whole BF/Illyrio+Serra thing is just as likely as him being real at this point just not enough info.

What intrigues me is this baby switch... So based on the passage above does Varys switch babies without Elia's knowledge? or did he do it with her knowledge and say "I have a feeling ppl will sack KL (which has never been done before) and kill the kids, prob rape and kill you. Let's switch your boy as he's the heir and I'll protect him, you and the girl are on your own though.."

As I've said before all of the possiblities seem so convoluted, it points to the fact that the real Aegon must've got Hulk Smashed Gregor style. I want him to be real, but if he is GRRM's got a hell of a story to tell (well it's a hell of a story either way but you get my drift).

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Why would Varys go to the trouble of having these kids tongues cut out if they could just give away secrets to anyone? I have a feeling that when learning their "letters" that they are taught a code alphabet so that noone else can read the messages they pass. Qyburn thinks he's taken over the spy network but he is only dealing with lowlifes and informers that Varys probably dealt with on the side. If anything as mentioned upthread he says these things for the benefit of the white raven which could be warged by BR, assuming he is lying at all.

This whole BF/Illyrio+Serra thing is just as likely as him being real at this point just not enough info.

What intrigues me is this baby switch... So based on the passage above does Varys switch babies without Elia's knowledge? or did he do it with her knowledge and say "I have a feeling ppl will sack KL (which has never been done before) and kill the kids, prob rape and kill you. Let's switch your boy as he's the heir and I'll protect him, you and the girl are on your own though.."

As I've said before all of the possiblities seem so convoluted, it points to the fact that the real Aegon must've got Hulk Smashed Gregor style. I want him to be real, but if he is GRRM's got a hell of a story to tell (well it's a hell of a story either way but you get my drift).

Remember that Jon pulls off a baby switch of his own with Mances son and Crasters son. If you subscribe to the Ashara=Lemore theory then its quite possible that she was forced to give up her son to protect Aegon, and in the same fashion that Gilly grows to love Mances son, Ashara loves Aegon. I dont think Varys was quite so callous about the situation, remember Tywin had no idea what he had in Gregor Glegane and didnt command the rape of Elia, as for Rhaenys I dont think they could have found a suitable replacement for her, babies on the other hand all look very much alike.

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Why would Varys go to the trouble of having these kids tongues cut out if they could just give away secrets to anyone? I have a feeling that when learning their "letters" that they are taught a code alphabet so that noone else can read the messages they pass. Qyburn thinks he's taken over the spy network but he is only dealing with lowlifes and informers that Varys probably dealt with on the side. If anything as mentioned upthread he says these things for the benefit of the white raven which could be warged by BR, assuming he is lying at all.

Interesting idea about the coded letters. Haven't thought of that possibility though, as we can see from Theon's squire story, even someone with no means of communications can be taught eventually. In fact, if they didn't know the regular letters how useful could they be in finding and stealing valuable documents? So does he also break their fingers so they wouldn't be able to write?

I dont think Varys was quite so callous about the situation, remember Tywin had no idea what he had in Gregor Glegane and didnt command the rape of Elia,

I think Tywin was surprised at the brutality of the deaths (baby smashed, sister stabbed half a hundred times) The rape of their mother was, like Cercei tells us during the battle of King's Landing, a foregone conclusion.

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Why would Varys go to the trouble of having these kids tongues cut out if they could just give away secrets to anyone? I have a feeling that when learning their "letters" that they are taught a code alphabet so that noone else can read the messages they pass. Qyburn thinks he's taken over the spy network but he is only dealing with lowlifes and informers that Varys probably dealt with on the side. If anything as mentioned upthread he says these things for the benefit of the white raven which could be warged by BR, assuming he is lying at all. This whole BF/Illyrio+Serra thing is just as likely as him being real at this point just not enough info. What intrigues me is this baby switch... So based on the passage above does Varys switch babies without Elia's knowledge? or did he do it with her knowledge and say "I have a feeling ppl will sack KL (which has never been done before) and kill the kids, prob rape and kill you. Let's switch your boy as he's the heir and I'll protect him, you and the girl are on your own though.." As I've said before all of the possiblities seem so convoluted, it points to the fact that the real Aegon must've got Hulk Smashed Gregor style. I want him to be real, but if he is GRRM's got a hell of a story to tell (well it's a hell of a story either way but you get my drift).

I concur. Qyburn could have been the target of the misinformation. Varys goal is to create as much confusion as possible to obsure his real goal (yet unknown). If in the end his goal is to install Aegon on the throne, he's still helped the situation by hyping up Aegon, and leaking information that could create factions.

Remember that Jon pulls off a baby switch of his own with Mances son and Crasters son. If you subscribe to the Ashara=Lemore theory then its quite possible that she was forced to give up her son to protect Aegon, and in the same fashion that Gilly grows to love Mances son, Ashara loves Aegon. I dont think Varys was quite so callous about the situation, remember Tywin had no idea what he had in Gregor Glegane and didnt command the rape of Elia, as for Rhaenys I dont think they could have found a suitable replacement for her, babies on the other hand all look very much alike.

These baby switches are different:

1. Jon was found out relatively quickly, and the intention was to eventually be found out to protect the baby.

2. We're talking about two wilding babies that were'nt well known by the Southerns that were seeking them.

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I don't see why GRRM would show that vision to Dany (and us) if it was just for Rhaegar to be wrong. I highly doubt the prophecy can be a load of shit since it has been built so much (maybe misinterpreted but not a load of shit). World is doomed, however, might just be a possibility though.

Hold on - My Crackpot may just make things clear.

When Dany asks about the visions, there's a line something like "morrows or days that never were"

What if....

The vision Dany saw never happened because it was a vision of Rhagar and Lyanna with Jon - whose birth name was Aemon, for his uncle the maester. Dany only heard Aegon because that was what she was expecting to hear.

A B-I-G What if but it would make it possible for the prophecy to still come true.

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Remember that Jon pulls off a baby switch of his own with Mances son and Crasters son. If you subscribe to the Ashara=Lemore theory then its quite possible that she was forced to give up her son to protect Aegon, and in the same fashion that Gilly grows to love Mances son, Ashara loves Aegon. I dont think Varys was quite so callous about the situation, remember Tywin had no idea what he had in Gregor Glegane and didnt command the rape of Elia, as for Rhaenys I dont think they could have found a suitable replacement for her, babies on the other hand all look very much alike.

These baby switches are different:

1. Jon was found out relatively quickly, and the intention was to eventually be found out to protect the baby.

2. We're talking about two wilding babies that were'nt well known by the Southerns that were seeking them.

I pretty much let you answer the first quote, I'll just add the timing of jon's baby switch was perfect and he had the cooperation of the mothers which I think is the main point. I just don't see how Elia would fit into Varys' baby switch or how the timing would work...

Interesting idea about the coded letters. Haven't thought of that possibility though, as we can see from Theon's squire story, even someone with no means of communications can be taught eventually. In fact, if they didn't know the regular letters how useful could they be in finding and stealing valuable documents? So does he also break their fingers so they wouldn't be able to write?

Good point I guess, just seems like Varys would have a failsafe in case one of the children was captured.

Hold on - My Crackpot may just make things clear.

When Dany asks about the visions, there's a line something like "morrows or days that never were"

What if....

The vision Dany saw never happened because it was a vision of Rhagar and Lyanna with Jon - whose birth name was Aemon, for his uncle the maester. Dany only heard Aegon because that was what she was expecting to hear.

A B-I-G What if but it would make it possible for the prophecy to still come true.

IDK if we can rely on a "maybe Dany heard it wrong" theory. That doesn't mean we have to assume that Rhaegar was correct about the prophecy concerning this child, he was wrong again and again concerning that. If R+L=J then for J, his is truly the song of ice and fire. he was either wrong in this vision, or Aegon is real and is truly on of the three heads/riders.

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IDK if we can rely on a "maybe Dany heard it wrong" theory. That doesn't mean we have to assume that Rhaegar was correct about the prophecy concerning this child, he was wrong again and again concerning that. If R+L=J then for J, his is truly the song of ice and fire. he was either wrong in this vision, or Aegon is real and is truly on of the three heads/riders.

If Aegon is real, I don't think he will be one of the heads. I believe he's going to die before ever even meeting Dany.

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Why would Varys go to the trouble of having these kids tongues cut out if they could just give away secrets to anyone?

Good point I guess, just seems like Varys would have a failsafe in case one of the children was captured.

There's a failsafe.

It is a lot of trouble to train these kids, which is why it's difficult for a guy with Ilyrio's resources to replace them after they die at the rate Varys requires. They appear to operate exclusively in KL, if not the Red Keep itself, an area where Varys has exclusive access to secret passages aplenty. When captured, Varys has access to wherever they are held and kills them before anyone can extract information from toungeless kids.

But he says it is for the realm a bunch of times, so I guess that makes it okay. :cool4:

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