What Varys Doesn't Say in the Epilogue...

[jon rr stark]

Do you want anchovies on that

[Anya, Vengeance Demon]

I think people have this backward. Illyrio giving Dany the dragon eggs is more mysterious if he and Varys only believe the dragon eggs to be expensive symbols of the Targaryen regime. Daenerys' lineage has never been questioned. No one doubts that she's who she claims to be. This is why they wanted Aegon to marry her--her legitimacy lends credence to his, which otherwise would be in doubt. Illyrio's comments (which are intended to convince Viserys that Drogo will marry her, not himself or indeed Drogo) make that clear. So the dragon eggs are unnecessary to bolster Dany's case, and were given to Dany well after Drogo had agreed to marry her in any case.

Meanwhile, Aegon's legitimacy is very much in doubt, and a lot of people who might otherwise support him will wonder if he's just some kid that the Golden Company picked up somewhere. Having a dragon egg won't 'prove' that he's a Targaryen, but it would make him seem more Targaryen, which is all to the good.

On the other hand, if Varys and Illyrio thought that they needed dragons for whatever reason, and that only Dany (for prophetic, salt-and-smoke reasons) could wake them... well, then that would explain why Dany got the dragon eggs, even if it raised other questions.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

While it would be a curiously expensive proof, I can buy that. But what I don't understand is why he would give her all three - surely a dragon egg is as good as 3 as confirmation of her Targness, while Aegon could have gotten one of the other ones to back up his Targness (which is more questionable than Dany's). So either they have even more dragon eggs lying in reserve for Aegon (or already sent to him), or there must have been a specific reason for why they gave her only to Dany. And yet it is generally assumed that they were taken quite by surprise by Dany actually hatching the eggs and indeed a plan relying on magic would have been quite out of character for Varys... I'm honestly not sure what to think about this.

It is likely that Varys and Illyrio have a lot of dragon eggs cached somewhere. 80 years ago, the Targ family gave every member a dragon egg, and they were at least twenty, maybe thirty at a time. Some of these eggs may have been lost, most notably in Summerhall. But all? Or even the majority? Aerys had to have a bunch of eggs somewhere safe, but after the Rebellion, not a single one was found. Enter Varys, Master of Whisperers to Aerys and Robert both and very good at ferreting out secrets.

[Anya, Vengeance Demon]

I don't believe that the books make any reference to the Targaryens having dragon eggs after Summerhall. (The most that I can think of is Mace Tyrell raising the possibility of dragon eggs being found in Dragonstone.) And it's striking that Daenerys has no idea what they are when she sees them for the first time, i.e., Viserys, who told her everything about home, never mentioned going to see the family cache of dragon eggs, or having a dragon egg of his own.

It's also odd that Jaime never mentions any dragon eggs cache. He believes that Aerys wanted to burn down King's Landing in order to reincarnate himself as a dragon, and yet he never mentions anything about dragon eggs, in that context or any other.

And for that matter, it's awfully hard for me to imagine that the missing dragon eggs would go unmentioned in standard accounts of Robert's Rebellion. Robert presumably would have gone ballistic to learn that Targaryen loyalists took a large fortune's worth of highly symbolic eggs from "his" treasury, and there'd have been a big man hunt for the person, or persons, responsible, something that surely would have been mentioned by now.

I think the more likely possibility is that the Targaryen survivors of Summerhall sold off the dragon eggs to prevent further mad experimentation.

[A Bear covered in Fluff]

Who did they sell the eggs to? That's the good question. They still havent been destroyed. Which means if there are more than 3 eggs that survived summerhall they are floating around somewhere in the world.

while on the topic of blackfyres and dragon eggs.... From the Mystery Knight...

What I find interesting is the black and scarlet egg Drogon hatched from may be the same egg Dunk picked up during the Frey/Butterwell wedding after pulling a dwarf off the bride's breasts. The same egg sought after by a the pretender who dyed his hair black and wore blue to make his eyes seem blue, had a dream of a dragon born in the tower there at Whitewall and did not hold BLACKFYRE. He was a pompus arrogant brat too. But the whole show of the tourney was to force the Fiddler aka Daemon to win the dragon eggs as his claim as the true king. But it is said time and time again that the people mainly saw he who held the sword of Aegon the conqueror as the true king. And because this Daemon didn't have it, no one supported him once BloodRaven showed up. When Daemon Blackfyre's side lost, he was said to be the pretender, even though he was considered to be true heir.

I have a sneaking suspicion that in the chests of stuff Illirio gave the Griff crew is Blackfye the sword of Aegon the Conqueror. But then again I also believe him to be truely Rhaegar's son and not a pretender because it's a little farfetched to believe a babe at the same age with same looks ended up in Illirio's possession at the same time Varys sneaks Aegon away. And it really doesnt matter if he's a pretender or not. He is still somewhat of a savoir to westeros from the terrible Lannisters. I just hope he doesnt screw everything up.

[hotweaselsoup]

While it would be a curiously expensive proof, I can buy that. But what I don't understand is why he would give her all three - surely a dragon egg is as good as 3 as confirmation of her Targness, while Aegon could have gotten one of the other ones to back up his Targness (which is more questionable than Dany's). So either they have even more dragon eggs lying in reserve for Aegon (or already sent to him), or there must have been a specific reason for why they gave her only to Dany. And yet it is generally assumed that they were taken quite by surprise by Dany actually hatching the eggs and indeed a plan relying on magic would have been quite out of character for Varys... I'm honestly not sure what to think about this.

Yes, it is a costly gift, but Dany thinks something to the effect that Illyrio could afford to be "lavish, because of the fortune in horses and slaves he had received for her" (paraphrasing from memory). As for why he gave her all three, I can only surmise that he either has another one (or two or three) stashed away for Aegon, or has the means to acquire more dragon eggs somehow. Also, Dany gets three eggs because George needed her to have three dragons . Illyrio probably thought that one would have sufficed, but some annoying little voice kept whispering in his ear: "Give her three, cheesemonger! She needs all three!" :D

[Uncle Impe]

So I was reading through this the other day, and I noticed something curious about Varys' conversation with Kevan. My apologies if this has already been posted somewhere. I couldn't find it.

Varys never calls Young Griff "Aegon Targaryen." Nor does he ever allege that he is in any way related to the dynasty. He merely says that "Aegon" has been raised to be a king and all that jazz. For all we know, Varys could have found some Lysene whore's baby and named him Aegon. Or maybe his name is Aegon Mopatis? Or even (dare I suggest it...) Aegon Blackfyre? It's worth mentioning that Daemon Blackfyre's first two sons were Aegon and Aemon.

Not ironclad proof of anything in the end, but it reconciles the thought that Varys has no reason to lie to a dying Kevan with the theory that Aegon could be fake.

Thoughts?

People tend to think too much at times and in so doing getting themselves confused. Remember that this is a book, it is written by a human being about "fake characters" people who really dont exist and as such you should not approach them with the pyschological forensics of a detective reviewing witness testimony.

When you say Varys or any other character didnt use xyz language you are "personifying" the character Varys. (I know this may be confusing so I will try to elaborate). You are treating Varys as though he was an actual human being that existed some where in reality and as such you can make arguments based on how you think a real person would psychologically refer to a fake Aegon.

Since we know that Varys is a fake Character written up by GRRM what in fact you are saying that the author actually has time or energy to contemplate every psychological aspect of his characters because some readers might take to them with forensic psychology. You are going too far with that.

Varys simply could have not called Aegon a Targ simply because that is how GRRM wanted to write those particular sentences. It could be that GRRM feels he has explained to the reader in more ways than one that this is a true Targ and as such does not need to dot every "i" and cross every "t" with each character that references Aegon. Honestly your theory would drive any author completely insane and probably incapable of writing even more than one page if he has to contemplate every single statment, word, name or tangent his readers might go off on even after writing lengthy chapters to explain something as simple as Aegon is indeed a true Targ.

Not every thing in the book is a mystery, a puzzle or riddle meant for you to unravel. It could be as simple as that. Aegon is a Targ, GRRm assumes he has made it obvious enough to the reader that he is a Targ and as such he does not need to use his name over and over.

Here is another argument, that still renders this theory far fetched. So Varys and his conspirators find a fake Aegon and waste 16 or so years of their life (i forgot Aegon's true age) hiding and educating this one boy in the free cities so that he can grow up and they can pass him off as the true Aegon. The obvious question (which I know will not be answered) is "Why risk it all with one boy?"

If he is fake why not try 3 or 4 boys, being that you dont know how things will turn out, why put all your eggs in one basket? The boy could die of pale mare, be taken as a slave, kidnapped and turned into a Eunuch like Varys, killed in a pirate raid, drowned on the river boat, infected by the stone men etc.

Why have him out in the free cities? why not kings landing? Why not the Riverlands? Lannisport? Oldtown? etc(If he is a fake Aegon after all, how can one identify him for the real Aegon (this is the part where you go back to the book and reference the part where Tyrion reveals the boys true identity, That is where you will find the answer to all those questions, but the ultimate answer to every one of them is that He is indeed the true Aegon )

Also one other thing, the author GRRM wrote quite a good plot to get Aegon and Tryion into the same boat. It is through Tryion that we find out the true identity of Aegon. Dont you think it absurd that GRRM would go through all this just to introduce the readers to a "found boy"?

You should do better to understand the author and the way he writes before making taking huge leaps in your imagination and going completely off the map. Tyrion has been used to unravel many puzzles and mysteries in this book and as of yet he has not been wrong. (outside of find out the true destiny of whores.ie. Where whores go.) Get it out of your head that GRRM could have written Tryion as having been successfully mislead by a dumbass like Jon Connington and some young kid.)

No folks it makes no logical sense that Aegon is a feigned boy, we shall find out soon enough so feel free to speculate, spice and dice up the book as you wish, But I am gonna "keep it real"

Aegon is Aegon Targaryen bet your top dollar on it.

Better yet:

Lets assume that you are 100% right and indeed GRRM left out that part because he expected us to make that connection ourselves. Could you tell us how he would bring that particular issue full circle? (For example when the Freys are cooked in a pie by Manderly, GRRM does not tell you out right that they were cooked in a pie. But you can figure it out by referencing the "Rat cook" story in the bran Chapters. You will find that the ingredients the Rat Cook used were almost identical down to the dornish wine (of course Manderly recommended Arbor wine because thats where he is from) Even small details like he didnt kill the freys under his roof for a reason well explained in the Bran Chapters about the rat cook) A simple way for GRRM to bring that full circle for those not astutue enough to figure out where the 3 freys are would be for him to put in dialogue with one of the other characters at the wedding saying something of the sort to Manderly "As soon as I heard you drunkenly asking for the Rat cook song, I figured out that we had just eaten the Freys"

That would bring the Frey Pie issue full circle

With Kevan Lannister dead could you formulate a scenario where GRRM will make it known to the reader that leaving out that name in that Epilogue was a clue that Aegon was indeed not a true Targ? Is he going to write some internal dialogue for Varys thinking to himself "thats why I didnt use the Targ name when I shot Kevan" May be he will have Bran witness the speech through some weird magical trick and Bran will make the connection.

Point is, there is no logical way GRRM can bring a reader full circle back to that particular line you reference. (If there is enlighten us)

[Anya, Vengeance Demon]

\As for why he gave her all three, I can only surmise that he either has another one (or two or three) stashed away for Aegon, or has the means to acquire more dragon eggs somehow.

Why? There's no evidence for this, except that it has to be true in order to make the theory work. And it suggests that dragon eggs are easily come by, when the opposite is the case.

Get it out of your head that GRRM could have written Tryion as having been successfully mislead by a dumbass like Jon Connington and some young kid.)

That assumes that Tyrion is convinced by the ruse, which I don't think is true. Tyrion seemed on the fence about whether Aegon was a Targaryen or not.

Also, "Tyrion is always right" is not a compelling argument.

[Uncle Impe]

Why? There's no evidence for this, except that it has to be true in order to make the theory work. And it suggests that dragon eggs are easily come by, when the opposite is the case.

That assumes that Tyrion is convinced by the ruse, which I don't think is true. Tyrion seemed on the fence about whether Aegon was a Targaryen or not.

Also, "Tyrion is always right" is not a compelling argument.

You misunderstand. "tyrion" is always right. That means the character Tryion being that Tryion is not a real person. Truths revealed in his POV have not been wrong even once. before you go jumping on the Tysha story, that does not apply being that GRRM is telling you of Tryion's past and what makes him the man we are reading right now. Tyrion is a vehicle, a means by which GRRM reveals a part of the story to you. And thus far, all reveletions that have come courtesy of the character Tyrion have been right.

Ps. It really gets my goat when some one chooses to willfully ignore several strong arguments against something, but instead choose to focus on a flimsy one as though if I were to concede that you are right on that point it would make the other stronger arguments dissappear. When i posted those arguments they sum up to make one point I believe valid. That Aegon is indeed what GRRm has written him to be. A true Targ.

[Anya, Vengeance Demon]

Uncle Impe:

Fine, here goes: the theory is that Aegon is (unknown to himself and Jon Connington) secretly the child of Illyrio and Serra. With that in mind, your objection about possibly using four or five children as backups is silly--those other children wouldn't be descended from Illyrio, and thus they wouldn't achieve the goal of putting Illyrio's only child on the throne of Westeros.

Second, you say that GRRM makes Aegon's lineage obvious. You're incorrect. GRRM emphasizes on a number of occasions that Aegon's lineage is in significant doubt, and that while his story may be true, many people--including Tyrion--harbor doubts. After advising Aegon to go west rather than east, Tyrion has the thought, "He may well be a Targaryen after all," which is hardly an expression of certainty. Other characters express the conviction that Aegon is a "feigned boy," and Kevan Lannister also expresses uncertainty as to Aegon's legitimacy. You may recall that this was a major reason why Aegon was to marry Daenerys, whose Targaryen lineage has never been doubted. Harry Strickland lays out the weakness in Aegon's claim quite bluntly: "We need the girl. We need the marriage. If Daenerys accepts our princeling and takes him for her consort, the Seven Kingdoms will do the same. Without her, the lords will only mock his claim and brand him a fraud and a pretender." GRRM did not establish that Aegon's claim was rock solid, he established that it was suspect to many people.

Third, your argument about Tyrion never having been wrong is contradictory and confusing. You say that Tyrion has been wrong, and then say that it's not relevant because that's about Tyrion's past, as if that wasn't an arbitrary distinction. And even accepting that odd stipulation, it occurs to me that Tyrion also once believed that the Wall was "the most useless" structure ever built by man, that the monsters the NW defended the realm against did not exist, and that being in the Night's Watch was not dangerous work. All of that, needless to say, was wrong.

Fourthly, you think that Tyrion, if he were wrong, would have been fooled by Aegon and Jon Connington. But surely you noticed that Connington himself believes Aegon to be a Targaryen? If the theory is correct, then Tyrion has been fooled by Varys and Illyrio, two very canny players.

And finally, don't clutter your posts with unnecessary verbiage about how Tyrion and Varys aren't real people. I know they aren't, and it adds nothing to your argument.

[Ser Illin']

Since we know that Varys is a fake Character written up by GRRM what in fact you are saying that the author actually has time or energy to contemplate every psychological aspect of his characters because some readers might take to them with forensic psychology. You are going too far with that.

Well he did spend 5 years writing the book... If he has the time and energy to describe (most of) a seventy seven course meal, I think he can take the time to make Varys say "Aegon Targaryen." Also, I'm not like, drawing up a full psychological profile on Varys, as you seem to be suggesting. The point of the thread was mostly to counter a common argument for Aegon's legitimacy: that Varys tells Kevan that Aegon is Aegon, and thus Aegon is legit. What I'm arguing is that Varys never says Aegon is a Targaryen, so we can hold the beliefs that Varys is telling the truth and that Aegon is a Blackfyre without contradiction. This isn't forensic psychology, it's just reading what he said...

Not every thing in the book is a mystery, a puzzle or riddle meant for you to unravel. It could be as simple as that. Aegon is a Targ, GRRm assumes he has made it obvious enough to the reader that he is a Targ and as such he does not need to use his name over and over.

You're right. Not everything is meant to be a mystery. However, some things are. I believe this is one of them, and I don't find Connington's story entirely believable, nor do I think the readers are meant to. Tyrion is skeptical about Aegon's origins. Why shouldn't we be? I don't think GRRM has come remotely close to definitively establishing that Aegon is a Targ, and I think a lot of people agree with me. Even those who believe that he is a Targ are reluctant to say that there's absolutely NO reason to doubt him.

If he is fake why not try 3 or 4 boys, being that you dont know how things will turn out, why put all your eggs in one basket? The boy could die of pale mare, be taken as a slave, kidnapped and turned into a Eunuch like Varys, killed in a pirate raid, drowned on the river boat, infected by the stone men etc.

Well, it was obviously a gambit, but one they had to make. If you have three or four teenage "Targs" running around, well, Connington's only one man, and he's not going to believe that all of them are Aegon, nor are all of his other retainers. Eventually, Varys and Illyrio have to pick a horse and go with it. As far as why he's in the free cities, it's not difficult to reason out. That's where the Golden Company is, that's where Illyrio is, and it's where Robert isn't (or wasn't). Why wouldn't he be in the free cities? As far as I can tell, it's the only reasonable place for him to be, and I'd be shocked if he were elsewhere.

Dont you think it absurd that GRRM would go through all this just to introduce the readers to a "found boy"?

I don't think he's a "found boy." The Blackfyres are a BFD, especially if you've read the novellas.

You should do better to understand the author and the way he writes before making taking huge leaps in your imagination and going completely off the map. Tyrion has been used to unravel many puzzles and mysteries in this book and as of yet he has not been wrong. (outside of find out the true destiny of whores.ie. Where whores go.) Get it out of your head that GRRM could have written Tryion as having been successfully mislead by a dumbass like Jon Connington and some young kid.

I don't think I'm out of line in saying that Tyrion might not realize who Aegon is... Tyrion's not a god, and there's no reason to believe he's omniscient. He never managed to figure out Littlefinger's involvement in the Game of Thrones, or who poisoned Joff, and he never imagined that Tywin would ride to KL to fight Stannis. Furthermore, I believe that JonCon truly believes Aegon is legit, as do his other retainers. The only people who know otherwise, imo, are Varys and Illyrio. Heck, Aegon might think that he's a Targ at this point. So he's not really being "tricked" by JonCon, but rather by Varys, who's quite good at such things. As for alleging that I should get to better understand the author, who are you, his therapist? I don't have any magical insight into GRRM's thoughts. I go by what's in the text. Unless you're GRRM in disguise, I suggest you stop presuming to have such knowledge.

I'm not sure what the "full circle" argument is supposed to be communicating. I'm not saying that the Epilogue is definitive proof that Aegon is a Blackfyre. I'm not even saying that it's evidence, per se. I'm merely rebutting the common argument that because Varys said the name "Aegon" to Kevan, Aegon must be real. I do this by pointing out that Varys never alleges that Aegon is a Targaryen. If you want something that will bring the Blackfyre story full circle, read the novellas, or reread Brienne's(?) POV where she is on the quiet isle. The monk describes a black iron dragon (Blackfyre sigil) that was lost in a body of water, only to turn up later rusted red (having the appearance of the Targ sigil). There are a bunch more, but these are just what stick out to me.

[Uncle Impe]

I don't think I'm out of line in saying that Tyrion might not realize who Aegon is... Tyrion's not a god, and there's no reason to believe he's omniscient. He never managed to figure out Littlefinger's involvement in the Game of Thrones, or who poisoned Joff, and he never imagined that Tywin would ride to KL to fight Stannis.

Oh so close and yet so far.

Tyrion never managed to figure out littlefinger's involvement in the game of thrones (you are wrong on that, very wrong) or who poisoned Joff (you are 100% right) but what is the difference between that mystery (the poisoning) and the revelation of Aegon's true identity? Let me explain.

GRRM casts Tyrion as confused about the true murderer of Joffrey is but he does WHAT IS MISSING HERE? An answer, a conclusion, a summation. Tryion is befuddled, confused which is completely different from being wrong. Cersei on the other hand is not confused, she has reached a conclusion (in fact she has reached so many conclusions that have been bogus). Cersei is cast as one who thinks she has "answers" to various plots and puzzles in the book, answers that are mostly wrong, like the true killer of Joff.

This is what I have been trying to explain, when from Tyrion's point of view a mystery is explained or a riddle is unravelled, it has always been true. Since no riddle is unravelled from Tryions point of view about the poisoning you cant say he is wrong. That his character doesnt know the true nature of some plots, riddles or puzzles in the book does not change the fact that every time he has solved one he has been right. More on this tomorrow. Too tired now.

Ps.. Regarding Littlefinger, Tyrion does not trust him in the list bit and he knows he is playing in the Game of thrones. (read the chapter where Littlefinger is at the small council explaining to every one why he must travel to some destination (which I have truly forgotten). But this I do remember, Tyrion's internal dialogue is of a man who knows that littlefinger is indeed tricking every one at the council. (i think it may be the time he runs off to the Vale to woo Arryn's wife)

[Ser Illin']

If the only thing you've got left to say is that "Tyrion doesn't know" != "Tyrion is wrong," then I think we're done.

[Anya, Vengeance Demon]

That his character doesnt know the true nature of some plots, riddles or puzzles in the book does not change the fact that every time he has solved one he has been right.

To solve a mystery is to be right about the solution to said mystery, so what you just said is a tautology.

Besides, your whole argument--as wholly wrong-headed as it may be--is irrelevant to the issue. Tyrion's thoughts reveal that he is by no means sure that Aegon is a true Targaryen, so by your logic, he has not solved this plot.

[Im no Ser]

Here is another argument, that still renders this theory far fetched. So Varys and his conspirators find a fake Aegon and waste 16 or so years of their life (i forgot Aegon's true age) hiding and educating this one boy in the free cities so that he can grow up and they can pass him off as the true Aegon. The obvious question (which I know will not be answered) is "Why risk it all with one boy?"

Two reasons:

1) It isn't "some boy", it's Ilyrio's son (and probably a Blackfyre)

2) Even if you don't buy (1), the ruse requires Jon Connington to believe he is real, and Ilyrio and Varys don't have any other exiled Targ hands available to vouch for the other "Aegons".

This is what I have been trying to explain, when from Tyrion's point of view a mystery is explained or a riddle is unravelled, it has always been true.

But it hasn't been unravelled from Tyrion's POV. He's uncertain:

Young Griff jerked to his feet and kicked over the board. Cyvasse pieces flew in all directions, bouncing and rolling across the deck of the Shy Maid. “Pick those up,” the boy commanded.

He may well be a Targaryen after all.

- ADWD ch 22

But here's my question - why do people (readers) believe he's real? The only evidence is Varys says so and he has the right color hair. That's a comically thin case IMO.

[ab aeterno]

This thread heated up yesterday/today! I must say I love how a discussion about Varys' wording in the epilogue, a verbal Chekhov's Gun, if you will, turned into an argument regarding the validity of psychoanalyzing fictional characters or at least examining the potential psychology/thought patterns of those characters! For the record, from a literary standpoint, I'm inclined to ascribe at least some relevance to Varys' failure to use the word "Targaryen" as well as Tyrion's uncertainty. Having said that, I hope Aegon is real.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

Why? There's no evidence for this, except that it has to be true in order to make the theory work. And it suggests that dragon eggs are easily come by, when the opposite is the case.

Yes, dragon eggs are difficult to acquire. But Illyrio has shown that he is able to do so. And the one and only "proof" that he has only acquired three of them is that he hasn't shown any more than that - yet.

[Anya, Vengeance Demon]

And the one and only "proof" that he has only acquired three of them is that he hasn't shown any more than that - yet.

It seems to me that the one proposing a secret dragon egg trove bears the burden of proof--since one obviously can't prove a negative.

[Uncle Impe]

Uncle Impe:

Fine, here goes: the theory is that Aegon is (unknown to himself and Jon Connington) secretly the child of Illyrio and Serra. With that in mind, your objection about possibly using four or five children as backups is silly--those other children wouldn't be descended from Illyrio, and thus they wouldn't achieve the goal of putting Illyrio's only child on the throne of Westeros.

Second, you say that GRRM makes Aegon's lineage obvious. You're incorrect. GRRM emphasizes on a number of occasions that Aegon's lineage is in significant doubt, and that while his story may be true, many people--including Tyrion--harbor doubts. After advising Aegon to go west rather than east, Tyrion has the thought, "He may well be a Targaryen after all," which is hardly an expression of certainty. Other characters express the conviction that Aegon is a "feigned boy," and Kevan Lannister also expresses uncertainty as to Aegon's legitimacy. You may recall that this was a major reason why Aegon was to marry Daenerys, whose Targaryen lineage has never been doubted. Harry Strickland lays out the weakness in Aegon's claim quite bluntly: "We need the girl. We need the marriage. If Daenerys accepts our princeling and takes him for her consort, the Seven Kingdoms will do the same. Without her, the lords will only mock his claim and brand him a fraud and a pretender." GRRM did not establish that Aegon's claim was rock solid, he established that it was suspect to many people.

Third, your argument about Tyrion never having been wrong is contradictory and confusing. You say that Tyrion has been wrong, and then say that it's not relevant because that's about Tyrion's past, as if that wasn't an arbitrary distinction. And even accepting that odd stipulation, it occurs to me that Tyrion also once believed that the Wall was "the most useless" structure ever built by man, that the monsters the NW defended the realm against did not exist, and that being in the Night's Watch was not dangerous work. All of that, needless to say, was wrong.

Fourthly, you think that Tyrion, if he were wrong, would have been fooled by Aegon and Jon Connington. But surely you noticed that Connington himself believes Aegon to be a Targaryen? If the theory is correct, then Tyrion has been fooled by Varys and Illyrio, two very canny players.

And finally, don't clutter your posts with unnecessary verbiage about how Tyrion and Varys aren't real people. I know they aren't, and it adds nothing to your argument.

First and foremost, if you have a theory of Aegon being Illyrio's son, it would help greatly if you posted some simple arguments as to why/how you came to this conclusion.

And when you are done explaining that theory make sure it then makes sense that when Tyrion has his confrontation and consequent reveal of the young prince he mistakes him for Aegon, he claims him to be Aegon the son of Targaryen. Not Aegon son of Mopatis. Tryion goes through a total break down of the boy down to his features that he thinks are of Targaryen. It is a great leap to claim that Tryion is wrong and so misled that he cant tell a son of Targ from one of Mopatis. But that is not even your greatest challenge as of yet, not by far.

Your greatest challenge would be to explain how in the bloody hell Illyrio managed to fool Connington into believing that some feigned boy is the son of the King who Connington served, a man who knew the king quite well and was close friends with. Explain how a man like that has been fooled all these years by a boy who has been at his side and that he has brought up.

Secondly you still have not answered the question as to why they would bother hiding him in the first place. If he is indeed the son of Mopatis then what is the risk in hiding him?Why all the secrecy? What would the risk be in him being identified as the son of Mopatis?

Now about your notion that GRRM has established doubt as to Aegons authenticity, that has got to be your weakest argument thus far. "He may well be a Targaryen after all". That is the typical wit and sarcasm of Tyrion. A style which GRRM uses frequently when expressing the internal thoughts of many characters but especially Tyrion. That is about the same as a mother exclaiming of her son's antics "you are your fathers son!" that is not an expression of doubt or even that there was suspicion that you were never your father's son. Tyrion thinks that of Aegon after he has kicked over the Chyvasse board and sent the pieces flying and then ordered Tryion to pick them up. He is having a fit. Which is why Tryion has that sarcastic internal dialogue.

Now let me break this down further by using GRRMs own words to illustrate how completely off base and misguided the notion that Aegon is a feigned boy.

Young Griff’s greeting was less effusive. The princeling

was in a sullen mood, angry that he had been forced to

remain on the Shy Maid instead of going ashore with

Yandry and Ysilla.

can you take a guess whose internal dialogue this is? Can you take a guess who is thinking like this? Well the correct answer is, NO ONE! These are GRRM's words direct to the reader, he is not expressing the view point of some other character, in this case he is talking directly to you the reader and he is referring to Aegon as a princeling, not some bastard child spawn of fat Mopatis and some whore. There are so many instances where he does this through out the book that I cant possibly quote all of them. Needless to say combined they out number your one misguided line.

Here is another one but this time from Tyrions POV

"He had sniffed out the truth beneath the dyed blue

hair of Griff and Young Griff easily enough, and Yandry and

Ysilla seemed to be no more than they claimed to be, whilst

Duck was somewhat less. Lemore, though … Who is she,

really? Why is she here? Not for gold, I’d judge. What is

this prince to her? Was she ever a true septa?"

and

"She

turned back to Prince Aegon."

There are so many instances where GRRm properly establishes Aegons lineage. So many that they drown out the instances in the epilogue where Varys does not use Targaryen. In fact if one were to argue that GRRM wrote Varys in with such depth the obvious question would be "Why then would GRRM forget and then have all these references to Aegon as a Targaryen, a prince. If he wanted to make a point by having Varys leave out the Targaryen name then he not mislead his readers by forgetting that and constantly identifying Aegon as a true prince in several instances. (too many for me to quote here.)

You go on to make further arguments about other characters casting doubt on the lineage of Aegon but you yet again have grossly misunderstood these characters. Of course kevan lannister

is potrayed as doubting the truth birth of Aegon. It would be just silly if Aegon turned up on the shores of westeros and every one just believed he was who he claimed to be now wouldnt it? Every one in Westeros knows the story of how the boy was killed and his mother raped. It would be completely absurd for GRRm to write Kevan Lannister as one of the few who believe him to be alive now wouldnt it?

On to Harry STrickland, again you did not understand the scenario or situation because you have entangled yourself in these plots behind plots behind mysteries.

Harry Strickland does not doubt Aegon's lineage at all. He is making a very logical argument that people would think of Aegon as a fraud and as such not support them. They are talking military strategy, not about the authenticity of Aegon. The entire realm believes the boy dead, it is only logical that GRRM cast the boy's supporters and cognizant of the fact that there would be doubt about his claim to the throne when he lands in WEsteros. It would be absurd if he lands and every one just believes him, frankly it would be poor writing by GRRM if that were the case.

To drive home this point, we have yet another "found boy" Rickon Stark. And Lord Rat Cook himself makes this very point to Davos when he sends him out to Skagos to find Rickon. He tells him to find the wolf as well, otherwise people wont believe their claim.

Lastly I will still say that Varys and Tyrion are not real people They are characters. It is absurd for any one to do some forensic psychological break down of their word usage as though they were real people with an actual mental process. One that would cause Varys not to use the name Targaryen because he knows him to be a fraud. And his failure to use the name can only be psychological because he is talking to a dying man. One who was not in danger of revealing any secrets so Varys's actual word usage would be irrelevant.

[Anya, Vengeance Demon]

Uncle Impe:

Um... every chapter in the series is from a character's point of view. The term for this style is "limited third person", defined here as: "Third person limited point of view is a method of storytelling in which the narrator knows only the thoughts and feelings of a single character, while other characters are presented only externally." GRRM does not employ omniscient narration, so GRRM is never "talking directly to you the reader." When GRRM is narrating from Jon Connington's point of view, the 'narrator' only knows what Connington knows,and thus if Connington is wrong about something, the narrator is wrong. The same thing with Theon, and Arya, and so forth. The fact that you don't understand this basic fact about the style of the books is astounding to me.

Second, the books establish from very early on that in the world of A Song of Ice and Fire, "people see what they expect to see." Tyrion sees a boy with Valyrian features being treated like a potential ruler, led by a bunch of Westerosi exiles, and he concludes that this may be a Targaryen because that's a natural leap. The same thing no doubt happened with Jon Connington. Except in Connington's case, he also desperately wants a second chance to wipe away the guilt he feels for failing the man he loved, so psychologically he needs Aegon to be the real deal because that's the only chance for redemption he has. And neither of them are comparing Aegon to a photograph of Rhaegar, but against their own (malleable) memories.