How Will Manderly Prove That Davos is Alive?

[ab aeterno]

Why would Theon keep his mouth shut if he over-hears Manderly say that the Stark boy(s) still lives?

If Manderly wipes out the Freys, that will be proof enough for Stannis as to who is on his side and who isn't. Manderly will likely let Stannis know what he is up to concerning Davos. If Theon overhears that, then it will be up to him to confirm it. If Theon is not in the room to hear that conversation, then Stannis will likely ask him about it and what reason would Theon have to lie. His secret will be out finally and he will no longer have to endure the name "kinslayer."

If you are Stannis, and you believe that Lord Manderly killed your hand/emissary, as Stannis does, you're not going to trust him or his men just because they killed your mutual enemy. The Manderlys have more reason to hate the Freys than Stannis, losing a son and lots of men at the RW. Stannis is as likely to execute the men for treason for killing his hand than he is to even talk to the- look at how Stannis treated Davos after the siege of Storm's End. Even if he believed they wanted to help him, he would be just as likely to assume that they changed their minds because Bolton was "losing" and still punish them for "killing" Davos.

As for Theon,

other than telling Asha about Ramsay et al, he has pointedly refused to tell anyone the truth, especially not about Bran and Rickon, partially to protect Jeyne and possibly for other reasons also. Not wanting to appear a total failure perhaps? He has opportunity to tell Stannis, but chooses not to. There doesn't seem to be any reason he would suddenly corroborate what Manderly might have said, and it is even less likely that Theon would have overheard Manderly because it would be too dangerous for him to talk about it in front of anyone.

@ Lord Varys,

That seems as likely as any possibility, IMO.

Edited for grammar.

[Quentyn Baratheon]

By Davos you know......showing up.

[ab aeterno]

By Davos you know......showing up.

Well that goes without saying, surely? I think it is implied by the OPs question that *we're assuming Davos isn't going to show up, at least not when Manderly's forces first meet Stannis'.

Edited for clarity.

[Quentyn Baratheon]

Oh, my bad.

Well, is it matter then? because, it's war. There's casualties. Stannis may lose a trusted counselor, but he's still rolling, and that's what matter.

[ab aeterno]

Oh, my bad.

Well, is it matter then? because, it's war. There's casualties. Stannis may lose a trusted counselor, but he's still rolling, and that's what matter.

True, though Davos seems to be the only person brave enough to tell Stannis when he's wrong, and the only person Stannis listens to. Stannis won't think that it's not very important though IMO, he'll want to punish Manderly for "killing" Davos.

[Quentyn Baratheon]

Hmm, me thinks he'll probably suck it up, because he'll have the North behind him. Stannis clearly sees now he need to smooth up (in the fantical religion side too) to win the realm.

[ab aeterno]

Hmm, me thinks he'll probably suck it up, because he'll have the North behind him. Stannis clearly sees now he need to smooth up (in the fantical religion side too) to win the realm.

That, or he'll have no teeth, no castle, no men and no hope... I hope Stannis survives for some time because he's a fascinating wild card- it's always difficult to work out exactly how he'll react to something, depending on what he views as being his duty, and what he views as being right/wrong. He doesn't care that His brother usurped the previous king, just like Joffrey/Tommen did to him.

[Tall-Talker]

By Davos you know......showing up.

I just don’t think he will show up in time given the pacing of the story. In addition, it is becoming harder to travel on land due to the snows at least north of the Neck and at sea (dead things in the water?). I’m of the mind that the next book will have Davos in Skagos either still searching for Rickon or persuading Osha to go with him.

If you are Stannis, and you believe that Lord Manderly killed your hand/emissary, as Stannis does, you're not going to trust him or his men just because they killed your mutual enemy. The Manderlys have more reason to hate the Freys than Stannis, losing a son and lots of men at the RW. Stannis is as likely to execute the men for treason for killing his hand than he is to even talk to the- look at how Stannis treated Davos after the siege of Storm's End. Even if he believed they wanted to help him, he would be just as likely to assume that they changed their minds because Bolton was "losing" and still punish them for "killing" Davos.

Yeah, Stannis won’t be fooled twice. He feels betrayed because Wyman did not go to his side and also killed his man. The whole purpose of starting this topic is because I’d like to know if anyone stumbled upon something that just went over my head (I learned about the Frey pies through the forum).

I think Manderly, if he surrenders or gets caught either in the field or in Winterfell, will have to answer to Stannis and his sense of justice.

In order to prove his game Manderly must have come up with something that must definitely prove that Davos is alive and searching for Rickon for his sake and for his men. By Manderly just mentioning this will not placate Stannis. In fact, I think it will infuriate him even more because he might think that he’s just another turncloak trying to talk his way out of some Stannis-esque punishment (Wyman eating a pound of his own flesh would be badass given how much Stannis calls him Lord Too-Fat-to-Sit-a-Horse).

In the Theon sample chapter Theon seems to be heading to the weirwood to be beheaded by Stannis very soon if you go by how the chapter ended.

My assumption is that once he gets there Bran will reveal himself through the ravens or the tree before any battle begins. Supposing he does, this might only prove that the kids aren’t dead and nothing about Davos‘ true fate. If this occurs perhaps Theon will finally reveal the truth too (Ramsay‘s crimes and all). Aside from the “Old Gods/Bran” raising the Northmen’s morale up to eleven it might put them in a bloodlust frenzy and wanting some revenge on the Freys and Boltons. Manderly having “betrayed” Stannis is going to have to find a way of not ending in the losing end of that frenzy by quickly and quite definitively proving his true intentions to the Northmen and Stannis. IMO

Another post mentioned something along the lines of Davos writing a letter noting his intentions as proof. Please refresh my memory(I honestly don't remember) but is Stannis used to his Hand’s writing and signature given the fact he was illiterate just a while back?

[ab aeterno]

Another post mentioned something along the lines of Davos writing a letter noting his intentions as proof. Please refresh my memory(I honestly don't remember) but is Stannis used to his Hand’s writing and signature given the fact he was illiterate just a while back?

Good point. I think it was also mentioned that the letter could contain some detail that only Davos could know, but again, for all Stannis knows, they might have tortured it out of Davos, for example.

I'm torn between thinking that we're over-analyzing this and GRRM will have a relatively simple solution to the problem, and thinking that it truly is going to be very difficult to convince Stannis of Manderly's loyalty in time without any outside intervention. I suppose a revelation from Theon about Bran and Rickon combined with Manderly's assertions might do it, but I think it's just as likely that Stannis would merely think that they are simply trying to save their own skins. (No pun intended in Theon's case.)

[Black Wolf Smith]

@ tall-talker maybe not the hand writing, but would know his Hands seal.

[ab aeterno]

@ tall-talker maybe not the hand writing, but would know his Hands seal.

But if Davos had his seal when he was "killed" it surely wouldn't be hard for Manderly to use it? Very bad form, I'm sure, but I doubt Stannis thinks that highly of Manderly at this point.

[Mance Oakland Rayder]

Im my opinion Theon will have to vouch for Manderly's story by admitting he didn't kill the Stark boys, as part of his transformation back into Theon

[sumant30]

Im my opinion Theon will have to vouch for Manderly's story by admitting he didn't kill the Stark boys, as part of his transformation back into Theon

How can theon vouch for manderly story he wasn't even at white harbor to know what wyamn manderly was transpiring.

[sumant30]

That would be the perfect "how", but... His knights should betray the Freys on their road to Stannis, not when they are rushing toward to fight. That would be the worst choice if you wanted to avoid casualities between "soon-to-be friends".

Is Manderly in the position to betray the Freys during the march? He's not there personally and, as far as we know, he didn't tell anyone of his commanders about his plans. Wyman doesn't even know if Davos returned Rickon to WH.

Betraying the Freys while marching would be a huge gamble for Lord Lard. Anyhoo... Freys and Manderlys don't even know where Stannis is camped, they believe is outside the walls, not in the crofter's village.

I sense a GRRMartinesque twist here... I fear that Manderly is not going to save the day as he planned, Roose's order to march for battle changed his plans too quickly.

The only way he would defeat the Freys and save Stannis is if the HM were Robett Glover, infiltrating Winterfell to tell Wyman that Davos is back and then going south with WH's army, leading the betrayal against the weasels.

How can Robett Glover possibly know about that??

[Ciazio]

How can Robett Glover possibly know about that??

About what? He was at WH with Manderly when they found Wex and Davos.

[sumant30]

About what? He was at WH with Manderly when they found Wex and Davos.

Ohh i forgot that.

[Mance Oakland Rayder]

Mance Oakland Rayder, on 30 August 2012 - 12:17 PM, said:

Im my opinion Theon will have to vouch for Manderly's story by admitting he didn't kill the Stark boys, as part of his transformation back into Theon

How can theon vouch for manderly story he wasn't even at white harbor to know what wyamn manderly was transpiring.

Seems like if Theon can vouch for the Stark boys being alive, Stannis will see there's at least some truth to Manderly's story

[cforrester]

My theory is that Stannis will see manderly's men massacre the Freys and then demand to know what is going on. They will tell him that Wyman knows that Rickon Stark is alive and has sent Davos to rescue him from Skagos using Wex Pyke as their proof (whom they MAY have smuggled up as one of Manderly's cup-bearers or another form of servant). Theon will identify Wex as his squire, unaware of the larger game, which will lend credence to Wex's story. Stannis will give them the benefit of the doubt considering Manderly's offer. Rickon may be able to rally the Skagosi clans (who i believe are Stark bannermen) which will reinforce Stannis' army and they take Winterfell. Ideally at this point Theon would be freed as his lie will have been exposed and he will kill Ramsay or serve Rickon. Another hopeful death for Ramsay and Roose along with all but 3 of the Freys is that they are the meals for the Skagosi.

[ab aeterno]

My theory is that Stannis will see manderly's men massacre the Freys and then demand to know what is going on. They will tell him that Wyman knows that Rickon Stark is alive and has sent Davos to rescue him from Skagos using Wex Pyke as their proof (whom they MAY have smuggled up as one of Manderly's cup-bearers or another form of servant). Theon will identify Wex as his squire, unaware of the larger game, which will lend credence to Wex's story. Stannis will give them the benefit of the doubt considering Manderly's offer. Rickon may be able to rally the Skagosi clans (who i believe are Stark bannermen) which will reinforce Stannis' army and they take Winterfell. Ideally at this point Theon would be freed as his lie will have been exposed and he will kill Ramsay or serve Rickon. Another hopeful death for Ramsay and Roose along with all but 3 of the Freys is that they are the meals for the Skagosi.

Do you really think Stannis will just give them the benefit of the doubt? The Manderlys hate the Freys and Stannis knows it, it seems more likely that Stannis would view the Manderlys slaughtering the Freys as self serving and an attempt to switch allegiances to the more likely victor (which is doubtless how Stannis would see himself,) and we already know that Stannis views Manderly as a traitor and an enemy simply for refusing to recognize him as king. Stannis is also under the impression that Manderly has killed Davos and put his head etc. on a pike on the walls of White Harbor. Even assuming he brought Wex, Stannis would have to trust Wex's yes/no answers; Theon would have to vouch for him, but

Theon has shown no willingness to tell Stannis anything remotely useful, for whatever reason, even on pain of death, so there is no reason for him to suddently vouch for Wex.

Giving someone the benefit of the doubt doesn't seem in character for Stannis. The only way I could see Stannis being convinced without Davos actually being present would be for the northern lords with Stannis to swear to him that Manderly had always been part of an anti-Bolton conspiracy, but there is little to no evidence that the Lords/Ladys with Stannis are privvy to all of Manderly's plans.

Edit: Even if he did give them the benefit of the doubt (Lord Manderly isn't there, after all,) he would likely still want to punish them- he cut off Davos' fingers after Davos saved Storm's End after all.

[cforrester]

if he's been asked by Stannis "Was this boy at Winterfell?" then nobody would really be asking him to support his story. Stannis has changed since Blackwater (not much) but i think he's desperate enough give manderly's offer some consideration, not screaming "burn the fat man" to his fanatical fools. He has to consider whether or not Manderly has indeed found Rickon Stark because if he has him then Stannis will have the North behind him and he can't exactly get uptight and refuse the chance because it may not come again. Don't forget if Manderly's knights tell the story in front of the Hill tribes and he dismissed it then as soon as Winterfell is taken the clansmen would leave him. Also Stannis can't afford the chance to increase his numbers give the fact that winter is on its way. Also it would make sense to Stannis for Manderly to utilise Davos' smugglers skill set (like he did at Storm's End) and pretend that he is loyal to Bolton/Frey in order to get his heir back.