How Will Manderly Prove That Davos is Alive?

[Lord Liam DarkStark]

Stannis would definitely take manderly onto his side if he had the chance. He won't pass up that kind of oppprtunity. He uses pirates?! Why wouldn't he want another bannerman???

I also believe theon is waiting for the right time to give up the information he has.

[ab aeterno]

if he's been asked by Stannis "Was this boy at Winterfell?" then nobody would really be asking him to support his story. Stannis has changed since Blackwater (not much) but i think he's desperate enough give manderly's offer some consideration, not screaming "burn the fat man" to his fanatical fools. He has to consider whether or not Manderly has indeed found Rickon Stark because if he has him then Stannis will have the North behind him and he can't exactly get uptight and refuse the chance because it may not come again. Don't forget if Manderly's knights tell the story in front of the Hill tribes and he dismissed it then as soon as Winterfell is taken the clansmen would leave him. Also Stannis can't afford the chance to increase his numbers give the fact that winter is on its way. Also it would make sense to Stannis for Manderly to utilise Davos' smugglers skill set (like he did at Storm's End) and pretend that he is loyal to Bolton/Frey in order to get his heir back.

Manderly isn't with his men though, so you're asking Stannis to trust whoever is leading the Manderly forces, and a mute, Ironborn squire, and possibly Theon, though there's no reason to think Theon suddenly wants to talk, over the entire north which believes it saw Bran and Rickon's bodies on the walls of WF. That's even assuming that they bring Wex with them, and that nobody questions Wex being sent out with the Manderly and Frey forces going to meet Stannis.

That is quite alot of assumptions. Don't get me wrong, it would work out quite nicely for everyone that way, but when does it ever work out nicely like that with GRRM?

[ab aeterno]

Stannis would definitely take manderly onto his side if he had the chance. He won't pass up that kind of oppprtunity. He uses pirates?! Why wouldn't he want another bannerman???

I also believe theon is waiting for the right time to give up the information he has.

But he thinks that Manderly has murdered his Hand and sworn loyalty to king Tommen. He's not quite the same person he was before the Blackwater, but he still believes in duty, and it was (for Stannis) Manderly's duty to swear fealty to him. There is also no Lord with them to pledge fealty to Stannis, Wyman is at WF and the others are in WH. He also believes that he has the upper hand, so the question is whether he would trust these potential new forces.

[Nordling]

Pessimist won't get disappointed. Also.. Ghost saw Shaggydog in a vision, fighting a goat with one long horn, so I doubt it's going to be just a simple snatch-and-grab mission for Davos.

[cforrester]

I think that what would make Stannis be willing to consider Manderly's offer is the prospect of the North rallying behind him through Rickon, which is the only way to checkmate the Bastard's "Arya". As i said before this is Stannis' only real chance to beat the Bolton's at their "I've got a Stark" game and Mnaderly offers a sizable chunk of land plus more gold to support his war. Also Manderly has the White Harbour fleet and now that Salladhor Saan is gone it is the only real naval power that he can have access to since the Redwynes follow Highgarden and the Crow's Eye wants to be King. Besides the Umbers are playing both sides to keep the Greatjon safe and it wouldn't exactly take a genius to work out that some of the families that declared for Bolton would be doing the same. I would think that along with Arnolf Karstark's treachery Theon may have divulged Lady Dustin's who veiled "The North remembers, Frey" threat which would bring Stannis to the conclusion that the North is ready to destroy all who serve and are Bolton and Frey.

[kissdbyfire]

I have a theory about this here. It's the second or third post after the OP.

[Lord Liam DarkStark]

Think of how desperate things are for him though. Winter is coming it'll be a time for wolves. I can't wait to see skagos but the unicorns are few and far between :( I was sad shaggydog killed one. but who knows what magic is in unicorn's blood.

[ab aeterno]

I think that what would make Stannis be willing to consider Manderly's offer is the prospect of the North rallying behind him through Rickon, which is the only way to checkmate the Bastard's "Arya". As i said before this is Stannis' only real chance to beat the Bolton's at their "I've got a Stark" game and Mnaderly offers a sizable chunk of land plus more gold to support his war. Also Manderly has the White Harbour fleet and now that Salladhor Saan is gone it is the only real naval power that he can have access to since the Redwynes follow Highgarden and the Crow's Eye wants to be King. Besides the Umbers are playing both sides to keep the Greatjon safe and it wouldn't exactly take a genius to work out that some of the families that declared for Bolton would be doing the same. I would think that along with Arnolf Karstark's treachery Theon may have divulged Lady Dustin's who veiled "The North remembers, Frey" threat which would bring Stannis to the conclusion that the North is ready to destroy all who serve and are Bolton and Frey.

That is what needs to happen. I'm just not convinced that that is what will happen. It just seems a bit too convnient. Also, considering the Theon gift chapter

neither Theon nor anyone around him has given any indication that he has told Stannis anything, nor that he is going to. To the contrary, Theon's thoughts indicate that he likely isn't.

@kissdbyfire

That's definitely a possibility, it would be a good way to tie in Bran's storyline and the motive (from GRRM) to bring Theon before the Weirwood.

@ He should be desperate, but does he really know what is coming with winter? His men are finding it hard, but it seems that Stannis feels he is in a decent position. Indeed,

In the gift chapter, Stannis seems confident and eager, far from desperate. He has also set traps for the approachhing force, so unless they can get word to Stannis ahead of time, they risk ending up in the traps before they even have a chance to try to speak to Stannis

We know that Manderly intends to help him, but I don't think that if you were in the field, or in his position, you would trust these men who you believe to serve your enemy without hard evidence.

Edited for spelling.

[Black Wolf Smith]

I have a theory about this here. It's the second or third post after the OP.

http://asoiaf.wester...-on-grrms-site/

I said something like that a while back. While I do think that a warg Theon is possible, clearly Bran really wants Theon at the trees.

ETA: I do mean Bran, not BR. Bran is still learning, and needs them to be closer then BR would.

[The Unburnt Hound]

Davos will show up at the last minute with Rickon or Manderly will reveal himself to Stannis somehow to tell him about his intentions.

[Harle The Handsome]

I did a post a while back #3420125 that outlines a possible plotline for this.

[Lord Liam DarkStark]

Rickon showing up out of no where. With no conflict to rescue him. That's a little opptomistic. When do things ever play out that easy. I think rickon can be paramount if stannis will ever impact the north but him just showing up and being like hey I'm not dead, I'm the lost stark you needed.

[Lord Liam DarkStark]

its too optomistic. I think whenever rickon is found he's gunna be wild. Like his wolf. But his wolf will prove his identity. Proving davos is alive he would need davos.

[cforrester]

what i mean by the whole "benefit of the doubt" is that he won't trust them but considering his lack of an army he might use them. When Davos pops up that will give proof of Manderly's tale about him and Rickon. Besides he is quite cowardly and if stannis takes Winterfell and he maintains the same story wouldn't he consider it true. Also Rickon is the key so i think that stannis would grind his teeth and accept, but keep a very close watch on the WH men.

[ab aeterno]

what i mean by the whole "benefit of the doubt" is that he won't trust them but considering his lack of an army he might use them. When Davos pops up that will give proof of Manderly's tale about him and Rickon. Besides he is quite cowardly and if stannis takes Winterfell and he maintains the same story wouldn't he consider it true. Also Rickon is the key so i think that stannis would grind his teeth and accept, but keep a very close watch on the WH men.

That is possible, I think, provided the Freys have been defeated first, and that he can have the Manderly men march ahead of his men. This is what complicates the idea of Stannis using the Manderly men as a sort of Trojan horse.

One issue that we haven't really discussed here: What if the Freys know or suspect that the Manderlys plan to turn on them, and they turn on the Manderlys first. The might have been warned by Roose, for example, or the Manderly's plan might just not go as expected- this would fit with GRRM's style IMO. If the Manderly men can't prove their worth by stopping the Freys, Stannis would never know that they planned to turn to him. If he got to WF and/or took it (with Manderly's help from inside, perhaps, believing that his men had suceeded) before Davos returned... that would be a very interesting scenario, IMO.

[cforrester]

I like the idea of the Trojan Horse and it would be kind of ironic since Frey and Bolton used the same trick at the Red Wedding. The Freys did leave first and if they fall for these implied tricks that Stannis has planned then the rearguard will be massacred by Manderly's men. In the case of Ramsay i can see that he will witness this and try to help the Freys which is when Stannis charges and personally kills Ramsay and Hosteen.

(i'd still prefer it if they were eaten by the Skagosi or maybe he will save that for Walder Frey and his stoats. Unless Aegon burns them out of the Twins first)

Expanding on the whole Trojan horse idea he could probably disguise himself and his men as Frey men-at-arms and any of Manderly's fallen so he can smuggle most of his host into Winterfell or at least enough to overwhelm Roose's defenses

[armidil0]

I dont see why everyone thinks Manderly and Stannis would be bff's. They want different things. Manderly probably still wants an independent North that Stannis would never agree to. Stannis also thinks Manderly was killed by Davos. Don't think that's not going to come to play. Davos was "killed" by Manderly for a reason, so that this alliance that too good to be true stays that way. Too good to be true. It's not happening. As far as Manderly is concerned, as long as he has Rickon, he doesn't need Stannis. The other lords will flock to him.

[cforrester]

wouldn't that make him as bad as the Freys though? He pledged his word of support to Davos and tbh he hates the Freys (that much is obvious) so i doubt very much he would do anything that bears a similarity to what they have done

[ab aeterno]

I dont see why everyone thinks Manderly and Stannis would be bff's. They want different things. Manderly probably still wants an independent North that Stannis would never agree to. Stannis also thinks Manderly was killed by Davos. Don't think that's not going to come to play. Davos was "killed" by Manderly for a reason, so that this alliance that too good to be true stays that way. Too good to be true. It's not happening. As far as Manderly is concerned, as long as he has Rickon, he doesn't need Stannis. The other lords will flock to him.

I think that is definitely a possibility... If they could retake WF either from the inside or by letting Manderly's other forces in- IIRC he says he has another large set of knights ready to move- after he has Rickon, they would be very interesting. I don't think he would outright betray Stannis or anything like that, but I could see him driving a harder bargain, maybe for Rickon to remain as Prince rather than Lord, or perhaps for greater power himself.

[all_Freys_must_die]

Stannis isn't stupid. He knows that fattie Wyman killed Davos to secure his son's release. He's not happy but he knows why. He also knows how diehard WH is for the Starks. Will be willing to believe when it is laid out for him (along with the handy destruction of the Freys and WH's swords).

Fattie Wyman on the other hand has his plans too i think. He will placate Stannis with his swords so long as Stannis's plans suit his own. Whether he will want Rickon as King or not remains to be seen. Stannis is a Southern lord and has not done anything to deserve the North so i think once the Boltens are done things may go 'south' for Stannis and his Northern lords. Especially if a Stark is back in town.

But as i said before...Stannis isn't stupid and may come to this conclusion as well.

I don't think Wyman believes he will survive much longer.