Why does everybody think that Aegon is fake?

[MtnLion]

I believe that Septa Lemore is in fact Ashara Dayne, living with, teaching and protecting the real Aegon since he was taken from KL. We know that Ashara was one of Elia's handmaidens while Rhaegar's children were young, until she eventually returned to Starfall for "unknown reasons". We also know that her body was never recovered after her suicide, raising more doubts about the legitimacy of her death. As one of Elia's companions, she easily could have been part of the the contingency plan for the fall/sack of KL after Aerys/Rhaegar's death.

I see a lot of striving to connect Brandon Stark/ Ashara Dayne/ Ned Stark/ Rhaegar/ Lyanna/ etc. in increasingly complicated and unrealistic ways. I think GRRM intentionally tries to provoke his audience (who are we kidding, he obviously knows who we are - especially based on this board) into developing these complicated theories. I think R + L = J reinforces a legit Aegon.

True enough Elia and Ashara were close. Perhaps they gave birth at the same time, and perhaps Elia's stillborn daughter was replaced by Ashara's healthy baby boy. That would make Elia happy, being able to present an heir to Rhaegar when he is told that Elia cannot bare any further pregnancies. That would make Ashara happy, that her son would be brought up as a prince instead of as a bastard. Read more:

[Dragonfish]

These arguments seem a little flimsy to me.

-The Little Birds couldn't be less of a threat - little orphan children requesting audiences with Knights and Lords, claiming to have inside information about the game of thrones??

If Wex can do it, why can't one of Varys' little birds?

-Littlefinger's method was to help young, innocent Sansa adapt to having her life be one HUGE lie. She's a sweet girl and clearly needed ways to keep the truth hidden.

So? It's still a good method for keeping up a lie.

Let's consider the scenarios in which Aegon is fake.

1) Aegon is revealed to be a fake early in TWOW, making his entire story extremely anticlimactic and leaving us wondering what the point of bringing him into the story was in the first place. Connington was also a POV character, lending more credence to his lasting importance throughout the ASOIAF series.

It's not pointless. IMO, it's a head-fake for Jon. The story is presenting us one "son of Rhaegar," but it will eventually turn everything around and present Aegon to be fake, while Jon is the true son of Rhaegar.

2) Aegon is still deemed legit all throughout TWOW. Takes Storms End. Forms an alliance with the Tyrells and commands the Reach. Brings Dorne into the alliance. Then is eventually revealed as a fake. Once again, ridiculously anticlimactic and clearly then a huge waste of hundreds of pages in ADWD.

This is honestly baffling to me. It's seems like most anti-Faegon people imagine that if Aegon is fake, his whole claim would collapse once it's revealed. But George's stories have never been that clean-cut. It's more than likely that, just like with Joffrey, some will believe him to be real, and others fake, and numerous complications will arise from that. Why exactly would that make him an unimportant character?

[Usurper's Dog]

This is honestly baffling to me. It's seems like most anti-Faegon people imagine that if Aegon is fake, his whole claim would collapse once it's revealed. But George's stories have never been that clean-cut. It's more than likely that, just like with Joffrey, some will believe him to be real, and others fake, and numerous complications will arise from that. Why exactly would that make him an unimportant character?

I guess at this point you're right. Regardless of whether or not Aegon is legit, everything will essentially proceed as expected. I think its unlikely the Golden Company would lay down their swords, pack up the elephants and head back to Essos now that they've finally returned to Westeros with a claimant (legit or not) to the throne. And like you said, many will doubt his true lineage REGARDLESS of whether or not he's real. Aegon or FAegon - it doesn't change the story at all - complications will arise.

With that in mind, however, it STILL is reinforcing in my mind that Aegon is going to ultimately be revealed, through some form of evidence, as Rhaegar and Elia's true son. I reach this conclusion based on what @Dragonfish convinced me. FAegon, IMO, doesn't do much to advance the narrative - it derails it.