Why does everybody think that Aegon is fake?

[Viserys's Queen]

I'm not really sure where people are getting that hes a fake from. I think its just speculation because he came out of nowhere. He just shows up out of nowhere and presents more of a power struggle.

If he is Aegon, the son of Rhaegar, then his claim to throne is stronger than Danys. Dany was the sister to the crown prince while Aegon was the son of the crown prince.

Also the whole "switched babies" thing just adds to the mystery.

He reminds me of Perkin Warbeck

[Cruella]

1) The mummer's dragon vision is associated with the line "slayer of lies." So whoever he is, there's clearly something fraudulent about him.

Exactly.

Also, when young princes die in mysterious circumstances, pretenders tend to almost invariably appear in times of unrest, a-la Dmitriy The Pretender. Even after that one was killed, another claimed to be him, miraculously escaped, and some people believed it. It's hard to imagine that GRRM wouldn't want to show something like that. It's surprising we only have one "Aegon" so far.

[karasu]

I find it interesting that the one whole reveals "Young Griff" as "Aegon" is Tyrion. He manages to put the pieces together and call everyone on their BS. Not that Tyrion has never been fooled before, but he is a very clever person. I think that the fact that it is Tyrion who points this out may add clout to the argument that Aegon is true. In the end I think too much is still hidden and we can't prove it one way or the other.

[Quentyn Baratheon]

"Everybody" is overreaching.

[Viserys's Queen]

"Everybody" is overreaching.

Which makes the story interesting

[Im no Ser]

Again, the only evidence in favor of him being Aegon Targaryen is that he has the right color hair and that Varys says so. There's no need to start talking about Mummer's Dragons or the window of opportunity to do a baby switch to disprove his paternity - the argument in favor rests entirely on the word of a professional liar.

To those of you in the "he's real" camp: what am I missing? Why should I trust Varys?

(Crickets)

[Volantis]

He does in a few chapters what Dany has been bitching about for five books.

Totally true

[Dragonfish]

I find it interesting that the one whole reveals "Young Griff" as "Aegon" is Tyrion. He manages to put the pieces together and call everyone on their BS. Not that Tyrion has never been fooled before, but he is a very clever person. I think that the fact that it is Tyrion who points this out may add clout to the argument that Aegon is true. In the end I think too much is still hidden and we can't prove it one way or the other.

Tyrion is actually shown to be skeptical of Aegon's origins. So this actually adds clout to the argument that Aegon is fake.

[scurvy]

I find it interesting that the one whole reveals "Young Griff" as "Aegon" is Tyrion. He manages to put the pieces together and call everyone on their BS. Not that Tyrion has never been fooled before, but he is a very clever person. I think that the fact that it is Tyrion who points this out may add clout to the argument that Aegon is true. In the end I think too much is still hidden and we can't prove it one way or the other.

Most of the bait and switch style events in the series are when you suspect something, then a character you trust leads yo the wrong way, only for your original hypothesis to be true. I don't think Tyrion's discovery helps or hurts. His explanation or his doubts could be misdirection by GRRM.

[mcb]

Maybe I got this wrong but doesn't Jon remark at one point that the boy looks like Rhaegar?

And Cersei thought that the Bastard of Driftmark could be Rhaegar reborn. Inconclusive.

[Silent Sparrow]

Another point i've seen made was why would Varys save Aegon and not Elia. This is all circumstantial of course. I think my biggest reason for thinking he may be fake is because both Ilyrio and Varys seemed to have no desire to sit either Viserys or Dany on the Iron throne.

Varys would save Aegon and not Elia because it is a lot easier to find a body double for a baby than for the Crown Prince's wife. Elia would be a lot more recognizable than Baby Aegon. Just like with the baby switch with Gilly's baby and Dalla's baby, Varys' switch counts on them not looking closely at the baby itself. If it is a baby of the right age that is being held by the Crown Princess and, at a glance, looks right, who is going to inspect to make sure it is the right baby? Elia, Rhaenys, and the baby Clegane thought was Aegon were killed in the middle of the Sack of King's Landing. They were a little busy at the time.

[Jalapenohitchhiker]

A lot of people may be questioning his identity simply because it seems too good to be true for Aegon to be alive, especially if you are a Targ fan. But something that really stands out to me is the fact that he and Jon Connington are using the Golden Company, which was created by the Blackfyres. While this doesn't necessarily prove anything about Aegon's lineage, it seems like the perfect form of symbolism for a Blackfyre. Having the Blackfyre Rebellion resurface using the most powerful sellsword company in the world created by their own ancestors.

[Jolene Brown]

I find it interesting that the one whole reveals "Young Griff" as "Aegon" is Tyrion. He manages to put the pieces together and call everyone on their BS. Not that Tyrion has never been fooled before, but he is a very clever person. I think that the fact that it is Tyrion who points this out may add clout to the argument that Aegon is true. In the end I think too much is still hidden and we can't prove it one way or the other.

What Tyrion figures out is that the party intends to present Young Griff as Aegon or even genuinely believes that he is Aegon, but there are a few lines that indicates that he is skeptical about whether this is actually true.

[Maester Tormund]

The strongest argument I feel for Aegon being the real Aegon is Varys.

Now I know everyone just face palmed and is preparing to quote my post and only write back with a " :bang: " but hear me out here

Varys is a genius, I'm pretty sure most of us can agree on that. I don't know why people think hes not a Targ loyalist, if it wasn't for the Targs he wouldn't be where he was. Before that he was just the King of Thieves with his buddy Illyrio. So the baby switch could have been awhile before the Sack of Kings Landing, or right after Aerys didn't listen to him and let Tywin in. Varys warned Aerys about letting Tywin in, shows some loyalty right there.

What is most important is what he told Kevan. Everyone says that he can't be trusted at all so why listen to what he is saying there, well because he has no reason to lie. He is in a room alone with Kevan, except for one very dead maester and his "little birds" so why lie? What point would there be for him to lie to him, Kevan isn't going to leave the room thats clear. The only reason Varys would lie there is if GRRM wanted to throw the readers off. Which isn't good writing, it wouldn't be Varys lying to Kevan it would be GRRM lying to you and me.

And no foreshadowing for this to happen? Arya saw Varys and Illyrio meeting in the basement of the Red Keep. That shows the two of them meddling together. They mention Dany and the Dothraki, they clearly see that as one option. They also have Aegon. Two Targs are better than one, especially when one is riding around with a Dothraki horde.

Aegon riding around with JonCon and Co. reminds me almost of Egg traveling with Dunk. Instead of being brought up spoiled and proper he's learning what its like to live off the land, to be hungry, to be cold, to see the world through the eyes of the lower class.

It makes sense for this to happen. The dragon must have three heads. Dany via Drogon is the obvious one. If R+L=J turns out to be true then there is Jon. And then the third is Aegon.

[Maester Tormund]

Also the "mummers dragon" could have been the Quentyn Martell, he believed he had some Targ blood and could control a dragon and looked what happened to him.

[Dragonfish]

What is most important is what he told Kevan. Everyone says that he can't be trusted at all so why listen to what he is saying there, well because he has no reason to lie. He is in a room alone with Kevan, except for one very dead maester and his "little birds" so why lie?

Well, you asked for it: :bang:

First of all, Varys never actually says that Aegon is Rhaegar's child. He simply says he is preparing the way for Aegon, then Kevan says he's dead, then Varys says he's here. That's it. So really, it's not necessary for Varys to be lying in order for the fake Aegon theory to be true.

But if that doesn't convince you, then there are still two reasons why he might be lying:

1) His little birds are in the room with him. Why would he trust them with a secret as monumental as Aegon's true parentage? They have every reason to resent Varys, as he basically has them kidnapped and turned into his servants. He might trust them well enough with finding other people's secrets, but I doubt he trusts them with his own secrets.

2) Varys may simply be employing the same strategy that Littlefinger is employing with Sansa, aka Alayne: keeping up the lie even when you seemingly have no reason to. That way, the lie becomes more convincing, and there's less chance he'll let the truth slip out.

[Maester Tormund]

Well, you asked for it: :bang:

First of all, Varys never actually says that Aegon is Rhaegar's child. He simply says he is preparing the way for Aegon, then Kevan says he's dead, then Varys says he's here. That's it. So really, it's not necessary for Varys to be lying in order for the fake Aegon theory to be true.

But if that doesn't convince you, then there are still two reasons why he might be lying:

He pretty much does say that Aegon is the son of Rhaegar. This is copied directly from the epilogue of ADwD:

"....Doubt, division, and mistrust will eat the very ground beneath your boy king, whilst Aegon raises his banner above Storm’s End and the lords of the realm gather round him.”

“Aegon?” For a moment he did not understand. Then he remembered. A babe swaddled in a crimson cloak, the cloth stained with his blood and brains.

“Dead. He’s dead.”

“No.” The eunuch’s voice seemed deeper. “He is here. Aegon has been shaped for rule since before he could walk."

Its pretty clear who they are both talking about. Kevan immediatly identifies it as the Aegon that he believed killed, the son of Rhaegar. And then Varys says no, he's not dead at all. Theres no double-talk, no hidden meanings. Pretty straightforward.

1) His little birds are in the room with him. Why would he trust them with a secret as monumental as Aegon's true parentage? They have every reason to resent Varys, as he basically has them kidnapped and turned into his servants. He might trust them well enough with finding other people's secrets, but I doubt he trusts them with his own secrets.

He's already trusted them with some pretty important information. The secret passages of the Red Keep, his secret identity, the fact that he has been conspiring against the Baratheon Crown since they took it from the Targaryens. And I believe its mentioned somewhere that Varys takes orphans in as his birds. What poor orphan from Flea Bottom who is trained into a spy is going to think his life is worth off? I'd suspect that some of his birds have been put into different organizations. Maybe he has one in the Faith, the City Guard, a different House's servingman. Those are all better positions then orphan living in the city IMO. We've seen how everyone gets their informers:

Littlefinger buys them.

Cersei intimidates or seduces them.

Tyrion blackmails or outwits them.

And Varys takes in the orphans, and he seems to be the most well informed. Yes he probably has little ones running through the walls listening on secrets, but what happens when they grow up? Its like in The Departed when Jack Nicholson has Matt Damon become a cop. He trains him since his youth to help him and work for him and then when he grows up makes him a man on the inside. Varys does the same thing so he has no reason to mistrust his bids.

2) Varys may simply be employing the same strategy that Littlefinger is employing with Sansa, aka Alayne: keeping up the lie even when you seemingly have no reason to. That way, the lie becomes more convincing, and there's less chance he'll let the truth slip out.

Littlefinger has two reasons to keep up the lie;

1.) To help Sansa stay in character as Alayne. If she slips up for even a second then his plans fall to pieces. So he encourages her to keep up the lie even when they are alone to make sure that she never slips up, ever.

and

2.) He's a sick individual.

We see how hes obsessed with Cat. He had Lysa Arryn kill her husband and then send a letter to her sister, why? Because Littlefinger knew it would bring them south. He knew Cat would insist Ned take the job as Hand, which she did. He knew she would expect to be going south with him, which she did. Ned threw the curveball by insisting she stay in Winterfell.

But he lucks out because Cat has a daughter that looks EXACTLY like her. Littlefinger flirts with her at the Hand's tourney pretty early on so we can already see that he has some attraction to her.

By staying in character he gets two things; he can kiss her and hold her in public as if hes just a doting father, not a creepy man, and he can pretend in some weird fantasy that she actually is his daughter and that Cat is her mother.

Varys would have no motive whatsoever to employ the same strategy as Littlefinger.

[Dragonfish]

Its pretty clear who they are both talking about. Kevan immediatly identifies it as the Aegon that he believed killed, the son of Rhaegar.

Yes, he does. In his head. What he says is simply "Aegon", then "Dead. He's dead." That's all. Varys simply addresses the point he brings up by saying that Aegon is alive. Nothing more.

He's already trusted them with some pretty important information.

Which does not mean he'd trust them with his most important secret. The rest of your argument fails simply for relying on such a fallacy.

What would Varys gain by telling them the truth? Nothing. And what would he lose? Potentially a lot.

And Varys takes in the orphans, and he seems to be the most well informed. Yes he probably has little ones running through the walls listening on secrets, but what happens when they grow up? Its like in The Departed when Jack Nicholson has Matt Damon become a cop. He trains him since his youth to help him and work for him and then when he grows up makes him a man on the inside. Varys does the same thing so he has no reason to mistrust his bids.

Except he also has their tongues ripped out, to make them mute, and they generally die before they reach adulthood (we know this based on Varys' and Illyrio's conversation in AGOT). That could easily be a source of resentment for them.

Varys would have no motive whatsoever to employ the same strategy as Littlefinger.

Just because Littlefinger may have ulterior motives in employing such a strategy doesn't mean it isn't a valid one, for the reasons I mentioned in the last post.

[The Flames Do Not Lie]

What Tyrion figures out is that the party intends to present Young Griff as Aegon or even genuinely believes that he is Aegon, but there are a few lines that indicates that he is skeptical about whether this is actually true.

I have yet to re-read much of the series and am new to this forum, so forgive me if I say something that has been said or is silly.

I will agree in saying that Tyrion is good at reading people and calling out their BS, but it is also possible that Tyrion already suspects that he is a fake. He did accuse YG of being "dead," to which he responded by explaining the whole story about how he was switched at birth. Tyrion probably wouldn't care if YG is a fake or not. What difference would it make to him? In the epilogue Varys is vague as to whether Aegon is the son of Rhaegar. This, along with the mummer's dragon prophecy, leads me to think that he very well could be fake. Then there is Dany's vision in the house of the undying so idk... IMO, it could go either way.

[Ramsay B.]

I gotta agree with Dragonfish, there really is no concrete evidence it's the real Aegon from that conversation. Im still on the fence overrall. And I think until we know the details of how and why Varys truly came to Westeros then we won't know if he is really a Targ loyalist. I get that he didn't want Tywin to enter the gates but it probably just screwed his plan up at the time.

It was whispered that he was the catalyst for Aerys going crazy.