Learning to Lead V: endings and beginnings. A Daenerys and Jon reread ADWD reread project

[Associate Maester]

Alia of the Knife - could you please edit down or even snip out all of Butterbumps! post rather than repeat the whole thing? It is very long you know :)

Personally I think there is a very strong probability that Aemon guesses that L+R=J and even that LC Mormont thinks something similar. If your a northerner, the Starks are your mega star celebrity royal family. Everybody is going to know all the gossip. People are going to know Brandon's reputation and they are going to know The Ned's reputation. Then The Ned comes back from the war with a bastard child. He never produces another bastard child. There are actually only three reasonable possibilities. (i) The Ned did something uniquely out of character. (ii) The child is actually Brandon's and The Ned is covering for him, again. (iii) The child is actually Lyanna's in which case the father is going to be Rhaegar. I can't imagine that the nobles in the North are so dim that those three possibilities haven't crossed their minds in the fifteen or so years that Jon has been alive.

Butterbumps! Well you have got a very big one there, and it's not everyday I say that to a lady :)

My gut reaction to a Melisandre involvement theory is that it is crackpot. On the other hand as Sherlock Holmes used to say: motive, means and opportunity (or maybe it was Miss Marple, some fictional detective anyway), and they are all there, She got opportunities to talk to Marsh and co, she is persuasive (ie she has the means) and might have motive if her plan is to step in and save Jon, (or to have him killed in a bid to turn him into Azor Ahai).

Still it seems risky. A fake assassination attempt could easily turn into a real one. A man could bleed to death. A wound could become infected. A misplaced stab could be fatal. Plus of course the conspirators have to be prepared to die.

I have to balance the risks of a fake assassination against Melisandre's extreme desperation. Which makes it seems a little more plausible. Just because it's a stupid plan doesn't rule out the possibility that Melisandre might try it anyway. Coming to Westeros on your own with a view to creating a King to fight the great other doesn't look exactly sensible either. I still think it's a stretch.

I think there is some mileage in a coded letter...but we know that letter sending is controlled by the Maesters. For The Nace and Melisandre to agree a code in advance would mean planning to force a Maester to write (is Mance literate? I don't think it's mentioned, but very few watchmen are) and send a ravenmail message or planning that he would reveal himself to Ramsey and somehow persuade him of a cunning plan to get the Mance wife and son back through a false letter. Both seem too far fetched and risky to my mind. So I'm inclined against a Mance-Melisandre coded message currently.

Honestly, I prefer to think of it as crackpot as it seems an idiotic, risky, nasty plan masterminded by one of my favorite characters (Mel) against another of my favorite's (Jon). However, I don't think we can use the idea that it would too risky as reasoning why Mel wouldn't do it. She is...not humble in regards to her abilities and her perception of her (growing) powers. If she were confident that she could pull off resurrection\healing, she might've concluded the benefits outweigh the cost.

[The guy from the Vale]

Sorry, forgot to shorten, :dunce: but I was asking her, (though I don't mind if others chime in), what her perspective was on a possible Jon/Berantheon smackdown.

Also, on Aemon suspecting who Jon is, not so much as tPtWP, but just as Rhaegars son. :)

If Aemon knew Jon was Rhaegar's, he wouldn't settle for Dany as tPtwP. He only does so by process of (faulty) elimination, because she's the only Targ left in Aemon's mind. Jon never enters Aemon's thought process in Braavos.

[Harlaw's Book]

I think several parties independently (although some may have worked together --like Marsh and Selyse) of each other wanted the same goal of incapacitating Jon. I think Marsh's group is going to fall apart. We know why Marsh does what he does,but I don't think it's certain that his conspirators are acting for the same reasons. We know many in the NW are unhappy about being in the NW. I think those people would've joined any conspiracy regardless of the LC if they think doing so gets them freedom. Alf is one of Mel's converts. As for Wick,Marsh could've coerced him. Or maybe Wick has ambitions of his own. I predict that Marsh's cohorts are the ones to do him in. In ASOIAF it's your allies not your enemies that do you in.

[The Lost Lord]

So Jon gets up and reads a letter explaining that Mance Rayder is alive and that Jon had secretly sent him to steal the Lord of Winterfell's bride. He offers absolutely no explanation for this. Then he tells the crowd that the Watch takes no part, but he was gonna go down there anyway, and did anyone wanna come? Scores of wildlings say yes.

I would seriously love to see a Bowen Marsh POV of what he was thinking during this chapter, he must have been bugging out, with all the worst conspiracy theories about Jon seemingly confirmed (wildling, turncloak, sorcery, taking the losing side against the Iron Throne, letting the wildlings in so he can march south with them). From much earlier:

Marsh hesitated. “Lord Snow, I am not one to bear tales, but there has been talk that you are becoming too ... too friendly with Lord Stannis. Some even suggest that you are ... a ...”

A rebel and a turncloak, aye, and a bastard and a warg as well. Janos Slynt might be gone, but his lies lingered. “I know what they say.” Jon had heard the whispers, had seen men turn away when he crossed the yard. “What would they have me do, take up swords against Stannis and the wildlings both? His Grace has thrice the fighting men we do, and is our guest besides. The laws of hospitality protect him. And we owe him and his a debt.”

“Lord Stannis helped us when we needed help,” Marsh said doggedly, “but he is still a rebel, and his cause is doomed. As doomed as we’ll be if the Iron Throne marks us down as traitors. We must be certain that we do not choose the losing side.”

[Tagganaro]

Wow, just amazing post BB!

I tend to think of both Mance being the writer and Mel being behind the assassination attempt to be very unlikely, but there certainly is reasoning behind it for both.

I struggle with Mance being the writer of the letter because it just doesn't sound like him (which of course can be easily explained if he's purposely doing this to sound like Ramsay...but still). I guess I have too much respect/worship for the Mance to believe he would play Mel's game like this. I tend to think he's acting on his own in Winterfell, doing whatever it is he's doing there. Also, the Reek reference just seems too specific. Even if Mance wanted to sound like Ramsay, there would be no need to include this. Additionally, the reference to "Arya" as "bride" would make perfect sense coming from Ramsay (if he was the writer) because he already suspects that Jon has Arya and would thus know she was a fake.

But I don't know...There's certainly something odd going on with the letter and the whole chapter really, so anything flies.

I know I've asked this before, but I really have to wonder where Othell Yarwyck is during all this. Why is he not in on the assassination? Most of what we've seen of him would suggest he's in league with Marsh, he's featured almost as prominently as Bowen is in terms of having problems with Jon, it just seems odd that he wouldn't be there. Is he even mentioned in the chapter after his infamous pig army idea?

[Winterfellian]

@Butterbumps, I don't have much time so I just want to point out a few things about your post. First, Judging by the long time it took you to comment on this chapter I knew you were gonna come up with some awesome mega post and you didn't disappoint! Kudos, it was a great analysis! I specially love this part:

I think Jon’s thinking about his siblings as casualties of the War of the 5 kings- the cost of the Iron Throne. I believe he thinks them all dead or beyond saving- even Arya at this point. He's thinking about the fact that he did nothing to save any of them, and that all of this came about because of the stupid Iron Throne. I think he's deciding to take direct action now, not as vengeance or trying to save anyone, but because someone has to stand up for what’s right, and he’s in the position to do this.

His thoughts about his family are punctuated by phrases others have told him- “the Watch takes no part” (common saying), “what you propose is nothing less than treason” (Bowen regarding the wildling relocation), “kill the boy and let the man be born” (Maester Aemon), “you know nothing” (Val and Ygritte). All of these phrases have played a huge role in tempering him, strengthening his ability to be focused on his position as LC, as well as life lessons. I find this fascinating. It starts with the strictest rule- the neutrality clause, then become more and more about thoughts of “rightness” than his enumerated duties as LC.

He is killing the boy here, but it “all depends on what side you’re standing,” to recall another Ygritte-ism. He is killing the impulse to stand by any longer when he knows he is the only one who can take care of this now. Where lack of discipline sent him from the Wall back in aGoT, a different sort of discipline is motivating him to leave. It takes courage, strength and discipline to follow strict orders, but it takes even more to break those orders once you fully understand them when the situation compels you to do so for the right reasons. Here he “knows nothing” because he’s kept out of this for too long, and is making stand. (imo).

It summarizes my feelings about Jon better than I could have done it myself. :bowdown:

About your Mel theory, I have always disliked theories where there's magic involve in the assasination attack but your post almost convinced me...almost :P

The reason I wouldn't like magic to be involved is because this is such a trascendent moment not only for Jon but for the series in general that I want it to be the work of men and men alone. I think the value of the moment is increased if it is the product of the stupidity and fear of men like Bowen and Jon's own mistakes. If the conspirators are suddenly not acting of their own accord then it lessens Jon's own arch as it makes his mistakes (and he does make them, but I never thought mistrusting Mel was one of them) less relevant in my eyes.

To me it will be as if someone would tell me that Joffrey was possesed when he ordered Ned's dead or that the Freys were magically manipulated when they organized the RW.

Other than this I wholeheartedly agree your entire post!

ETA: About Mance I always thought there was a big chance that he was the writer of the letter but that it might have been made as part of a bargain with the Boltons once he was discovered. It explains the foreshadowing feel in the Jon and Mance fight at the yard.

[Tagganaro]

So Jon gets up and reads a letter explaining that Mance Rayder is alive and that Jon had secretly sent him to steal the Lord of Winterfell's bride. He offers absolutely no explanation for this. Then he tells the crowd that the Watch takes no part, but he was gonna go down there anyway, and did anyone wanna come? Scores of wildlings say yes.

I would seriously love to see a Bowen Marsh POV of what he was thinking during this chapter, he must have been bugging out, with all the worst conspiracy theories about Jon seemingly confirmed (wildling, turncloak, sorcery, taking the losing side against the Iron Throne, letting the wildlings in so he can march south with them). From much earlier:

You see, the funny thing is, I would think everything that Jon is doing in this chapter after reading the letter is straight out of a Bowen Marsh wet dream. Jon is doing everything Bowen wants here...He's taking useless wildling mouths south to get slaughtered, he's basically "breaking" his oath, he will no longer be in a position of leadership obviously anymore, and while he is antagonizing the Boltons/Iron Throne, he's doing it separately from the NW. He's essentially separating himself from the NW, no longer being a member.

And all Bowen would have to do to appease the Boltons who he seems to be so afraid of, would be to write a letter widely condemning Jon as a traitor, closing the Wall behind him, and agreeing to hand over the hostages that Ramsay asked for like Selyse and Shireen to prove the NW loyalty is back with the Boltons and the IT.

So in closing, I guess I have trouble with the notion that this wouldn't be exactly what Bowen wanted, which makes the assassination that much weirder, considering it's done in full view of Jon's "wildling allies".

[The Lost Lord]

You see, the funny thing is, I would think everything that Jon is doing in this chapter after reading the letter is straight out of a Bowen Marsh wet dream. Jon is doing everything Bowen wants here...He's taking useless wildling mouths south to get slaughtered, he's basically "breaking" his oath, he will no longer be in a position of leadership obviously anymore, and while he is antagonizing the Boltons/Iron Throne, he's doing it separately from the NW. He's essentially separating himself from the NW, no longer being a member.

Uh, I thought it was pretty clear that Bowen sees the wildlings as the enemy and does not want them loosed on the south. Right? At the very least he probably expects them to kill tons of innocent people on the way down, since he thinks they're savages. And why is it so clear the wildlings and Jon will be slaughtered? Jon knows Winterfell, he has surprise on his side because Ramsay has no idea 3000+ wildlings got through the Wall, and we have no idea what state the Boltons' army is in at this point after 7 days of battle. (Also, "7 days" means Stannis apparently put up quite a fight despite the very small size of his own army, why can't Jon do the same?)

And all Bowen would have to do to appease the Boltons who he seems to be so afraid of, would be to write a letter widely condemning Jon as a traitor, closing the Wall behind him, and agreeing to hand over the hostages that Ramsay asked for like Selyse and Shireen to prove the NW loyalty is back with the Boltons and the IT.

Well the assassination was certainly stupid and will have terrible consequences, you'll get no argument there. I would guess it was a spur-of-the-moment decision motivated by what he heard in the Shieldhall. Bowen probably thought, in his own warped way, that evil triumphs when good men stand back and do nothing. And that he had to do something to stop Jon, right now.

[Chaircat Meow]

And why is it so clear the wildlings and Jon will be slaughtered? Jon knows Winterfell, he has surprise on his side because Ramsay has no idea 3000+ wildlings got through the Wall, and we have no idea what state the Boltons' army is in at this point after 7 days of battle. (Also, "7 days" means Stannis apparently put up quite a fight despite the very small size of his own army, why can't Jon do the same?)

Tormund does have just over 3,000 people with him, but Jon puts the number of warriors at between 500-1000 and only one in ten has a mount. Stannis has/had, 5,000. (Bolton probably has around 7-8,000)

Moreover, even unbiased sources seem to suggest the wildlings are notoriously undisciplined and GrrM likes to drum in how discipline beats indiscipline nearly every time.

Going from to WF from Castle Black sounds as bad as going to WF from DWM and there isn't really any guarantee of surprise, esp considering the hideous weather.

As for knowing WF, well, so do lots of people. Unless Jon knows some funky secret entrance I'm not sure there is much in this.

And although armies have suffered some fairly horrendous casualties in GrrM's world, a victorious army is likely to still have most of its numbers.

Anyway, that Jon's campaign looks somewhat forlorn seems the reasonable conclusion.

In addition, if Stannis' army is broken that suggests there are no pro-Stark forces left in the far north. In CoK and DwD we heard the Umber and Karstark lands have been stripped and they sent their contingents to the battle now thought to have taken place anyway. Probably most of the hill clans strength was with Stannis (I can't imagine they have much more than 3,000 men). So, remaining in play would be Bolton's own army plus the Freys, Dustin's followers (she has her own powerbloc, including the Ryswells) and then Manderly and the lords who take his lead. As far as we know though, there is no co-ordination or communication whatsoever between Jon and Manderly, so banking on his support is a very long shot. Usually, if you want to plan a successful insurrection you need some kind of contact with your potential backers first. Finally, we know, although Jon may not, Mandy has only 300 men at WF, and you can't co-ordinate his other forces with Jon's over the North's vast distances with any hope of success, esp if Jon hopes to bring Ramsay to battle rapidly. In short, Jon's scheme, as far as we can make it out, doesn't look pretty.

[Dr. Pepper]

<snip>

This quote you provided is actually a good example of Bowen Marsh taking part in the politics of the realm. He's deciding on his own which side to choose and what title to bestow on people while subtly implying that it is Jon who is taking part in matters of the realm.

[The Lost Lord]

This quote you provided is actually a good example of Bowen Marsh taking part in the politics of the realm. He's deciding on his own which side to choose and what title to bestow on people while subtly implying that it is Jon who is taking part in matters of the realm.

What? How is Bowen taking part? He didn't propose helping Tommen in any way, he just cautioned Jon against helping Stannis too much. He preferred to take no part.

And Tommen at this point was the acknowledged king everywhere in Westeros except a few holdout castles and the Iron Islands, while Stannis had an army of just above 1000. So when he calls Stannis a rebel he's just pointing out the obvious.

[Winterfellian]

What? How is Bowen taking part? He didn't propose helping Tommen in any way, he just cautioned Jon against helping Stannis too much. He preferred to take no part.

And Tommen at this point was the acknowledged king everywhere in Westeros except a few holdout castles and the Iron Islands, while Stannis had an army of just above 1000. So when he calls Stannis a rebel he's just pointing out the obvious.

Leaving aside the quote you provided Marsh does interfere in the affairs of the realm. For example, back in ASOS he supported Slynt as a sort of wink to Tywin Lannister. He was ready to let foreign person of the Night Watch dictate their choice for Lord Commander, the most important job in the institution. His concern about Jon siding too much with Stannis isn't so much about interfering in affairs of the realm (althought that is his allibi) but the fact that Jon is siding to what Marsh views as the losing side.

ETA: Which goes to show how big a hypocrite he really is.

[The Lost Lord]

Leaving aside the quote you provided Marsh does interfere in the affairs of the realm. For example, back in ASOS he supported Slynt as a sort of wink to Tywin Lannister

Huh? That is not interfering in the affairs of the realm. That is choosing the Lord Commander of the Night's Watch.

His concern about Jon siding too much with Stannis isn't so much about interfering in affairs of the realm (althought that is his allibi) but the fact that Jon is siding to what Marsh views as the losing side.

Yes it's a practical concern. You really want to pooh-pooh that after how things turned out with Ramsay? You know, the Watch does need to be intact and still exist if it's going to protect the realm.

[Chaircat Meow]

Leaving aside the quote you provided Marsh does interfere in the affairs of the realm. For example, back in ASOS he supported Slynt as a sort of wink to Tywin Lannister. He was ready to let foreign person of the Night Watch dictate their choice for Lord Commander, the most important job in the institution. His concern about Jon siding too much with Stannis isn't so much about interfering in affairs of the realm (althought that is his allibi) but the fact that Jon is siding to what Marsh views as the losing side.

ETA: Which goes to show how big a hypocrite he really is.

The trouble is, supporting Slynt because he felt Tywin would be more inclined to support the watch isn't interfering in the affairs of the realm given it's a Night Watch matter. Quite plainly.

Mormont does the same, on a smaller scale, when he gives the command of the ranging to Royce, to appease his father.

And how do you think all those Starks got to be LC real young if the NW didn't want to curry favour with the northern kings?

[Blisscraft]

BB - Very interesting post. I would only add that Mel, too, said, "You know nothing. . . " to Jon. (What is it with Jon and women?).

As for Mel being part of the conspiracy, you argue the idea very well, however, it seems too remote. The stabbing is extremely personal and reflects the betrayal felt by the assassins, as it was in Julius Caesar. Et tu? The participants must get close to stick the daggers into Jon. It's not the type of assassination performed by the FM, for example, an "accidental" death. The assassins, here, are sending a message to Jon and, for the most part, want Jon to know who they are. They are brothers of the NW.

As for the "pink letter," I have no idea. It sounds like Ramsay to me, but arguments to the contrary seem likely to me as well.

[Winterfellian]

Sorry for derailing the thread, but concerning the following:

Huh? That is not interfering in the affairs of the realm. That is choosing the Lord Commander of the Night's Watch.

This is the quote from ASOS: "Lord Tywin favors Slynt. I can show you his lettr Othell. His faithful friend and servant he calle him". Marsh is letting his desire to please Tywin Lannister, a man who has never give a fig about the wall, propose for Lord Commander a man who has little time in the wall and by all accounts looks to be very incompetent.

The trouble is, supporting Slynt because he felt Tywin would be more inclined to support the watch isn't interfering in the affairs of the realm given it's a Night Watch matter. Quite plainly.

Following your logic, don't you think supporting Stannis (to a certain degree as Jon did) because Jon knows he's already helping the watch isn't interfering in the affairs of the realm given that is a Night Watch matter?

[Chaircat Meow]

Sorry for derailing the thread, but concerning the following:

This is the quote from ASOS: "Lord Tywin favors Slynt. I can show you his lettr Othell. His faithful friend and servant he calle him". Marsh is letting his desire to please Tywin Lannister, a man who has never give a fig about the wall, propose for Lord Commander a man who has little time in the wall and by all accounts looks to be very incompetent.

And? First, it's not taking a part in the struggles of the realm but electing the LC. Secondly, Marsh, thinks Tywin will fuck the watch over in someway (seemingly by not sending anymore men, which he isn't obliged to do anyway) if he doesn't get what he wants, so he rightly or wrongly wants to comply with him. As I said, it's the same principal as Mormont favouring Royce for the command of the ranging. Do you think accepting Robb's offer to release Jon from his vows, in exchange for 100 men, is interfering in the affairs of the realm too?

Following your logic, don't you think supporting Stannis (to a certain degree as Jon did) because Jon knows he's already helping the watch isn't interfering in the affairs of the realm given that is a Night Watch matter?

Helping Stannis to defeat his (human) foes is interfering in the affairs of the realm. Choosing an LC is a NW matter, like appointing a First Ranger or something like that. If Tywin asked the watch to launch an attack on Stannis in return for aid and Marsh supported this you would have a point. That's not what happened though.

[butterbumps!]

Hey all,

I should have specified I was hitting crackpot territory (I warned Lummel via PM) but I should have been more publicly explicit. I wanted to put all those thoughts consolidated into one place, and debated whether to make a "crackpot" post and an "analysis" post. The parts about my Mel speculation are just things that raised alarm bells for me, and given that she has a strong motive, I put it forth as a case, but by all means it's speculative :cool4: .

1). Do you forsee at some point Jon starting to turn his anger on House Berantheon, especially if it comes to light about his heritage?

What you wrote set me to thinking that the Berantheons have caused a lot of pain to the Starks as well, even though it's not overt, (and I'd go back to the imagry of the Stag goring the Direwolf).

I think If Jon has problems with the Baratheons, it would be on the subject of his parentage. When you think about it, it was the fact that Robert was a man who allowed and at least once ordered the deaths of children, and because of this Ned had to keep Jon's identity such a secret. But I don't really foresee future problems-- there's only Stannis left, and for the most part he's been a help to Jon, and is trying to do right. Are you thinking Jon might blame Stannis for leaving Ned hanging in KL? Did you have something in mind?

2). And here we go with Aemon:

Do you think on some intuitive level that Aemon might have known who Jon was, and that was another reason for his "talking him off the ledge," other than the NW creed?

I'd wondered, actually. I got the sense that Aemon and Rhaeger were close, to the extent that they had communications (and as an aside, I'd wondered if Aemon was the person who sent Rhaeger those infamous scrolls about promised princes). Curiously, Aemon sets the Jade Compendium aside for Jon's review of the Azor Ahai passage. Had he done something similar with Rhaeger? And does he do this with Jon because he believes that the Last Hero and Azor Ahai are the same, and this will help Jon identify what he's facing, or does Aemon suspect who Jon really is, and believe that he must be the promised prince? I'm kind of inclined to say yes, but I agree with theguyfromthevale that Aemon settles on Dany as the prince eventually. Had he believed this could be Jon, and had he known of the parentage, but then changed his mind because Dany seemed more "obvious"?

The reason I wouldn't like magic to be involved is because this is such a trascendent moment not only for Jon but for the series in general that I want it to be the work of men and men alone. I think the value of the moment is increased if it is the product of the stupidity and fear of men like Bowen and Jon's own mistakes. If the conspirators are suddenly not acting of their own accord then it lessens Jon's own arch as it makes his mistakes (and he does make them, but I never thought mistrusting Mel was one of them) less relevant in my eyes.

To me it will be as if someone would tell me that Joffrey was possesed when he ordered Ned's dead or that the Freys were magically manipulated when they organized the RW.

I agree with you, here. I'd considered the possibility of magic, but ultimately thought that this might be a more pedestrian form of coercion on Mel's part, if she's involved. I think there's a lot of things that do point to Mel-- I'd left out the fact that "Rattleshirt" recounts Mel with murmurs of dissatisfaction from Bowen he overhears in the dining hall, and if Mel needed a patsy, he'd be a logical choice given his leanings. I don't know that I see Bowen doing this all on his own accord, and Wick either. I think it's in line with Bowen's character that if Mel said "do this, and the Watch will be spared" I could see Bowen be more inclined. I find it vexing- I mean, this chapter generally. I think that Jon and the conspirators are acting somewhat out of character, as is Ghost, and even Clydas is a bit weird.

General note: I think that "not getting involved in the affairs of the realm" should be logically understood also as "the affairs of the realm don't get involved in the Watch." I don't want to go and search for this right now, but a number of Watchmen, I think including even Bowen, were outraged by the fact that Stannis has allegedly threatened to choose if they didn't get their act together and make a decision. (I know that this is a half-truth Sam tells them, but the point is that they believed this and were outraged). The point being that the Watchmen got up in arms about an "outsider" invading the traditions of the Watch, considering the election sacred when it involved Stannis, but Bowen was more than willing to comply with the wishes of the Lannister.

[Alia of the knife]

Hey all,

I should have specified I was hitting crackpot territory (I warned Lummel via PM) but I should have been more publicly explicit. I wanted to put all those thoughts consolidated into one place, and debated whether to make a "crackpot" post and an "analysis" post. The parts about my Mel speculation are just things that raised alarm bells for me, and given that she has a strong motive, I put it forth as a case, but by all means it's speculative :cool4: .

I think If Jon has problems with the Baratheons, it would be on the subject of his parentage. When you think about it, it was the fact that Robert was a man who allowed and at least once ordered the deaths of children, and because of this Ned had to keep Jon's identity such a secret. But I don't really foresee future problems-- there's only Stannis left, and for the most part he's been a help to Jon, and is trying to do right. Are you thinking Jon might blame Stannis for leaving Ned hanging in KL? Did you have something in mind?

I'd wondered, actually. I got the sense that Aemon and Rhaeger were close, to the extent that they had communications (and as an aside, I'd wondered if Aemon was the person who sent Rhaeger those infamous scrolls about promised princes). Curiously, Aemon sets the Jade Compendium aside for Jon's review of the Azor Ahai passage. Had he done something similar with Rhaeger? And does he do this with Jon because he believes that the Last Hero and Azor Ahai are the same, and this will help Jon identify what he's facing, or does Aemon suspect who Jon really is, and believe that he must be the promised prince? I'm kind of inclined to say yes, but I agree with theguyfromthevale that Aemon settles on Dany as the prince eventually. Had he believed this could be Jon, and had he known of the parentage, but then changed his mind because Dany seemed more "obvious"?

I agree with you, here. I'd considered the possibility of magic, but ultimately thought that this might be a more pedestrian form of coercion on Mel's part, if she's involved. I think there's a lot of things that do point to Mel-- I'd left out the fact that "Rattleshirt" recounts Mel with murmurs of dissatisfaction from Bowen he overhears in the dining hall, and if Mel needed a patsy, he'd be a logical choice given his leanings. I don't know that I see Bowen doing this all on his own accord, and Wick either. I think it's in line with Bowen's character that if Mel said "do this, and the Watch will be spared" I could see Bowen be more inclined. I find it vexing- I mean, this chapter generally. I think that Jon and the conspirators are acting somewhat out of character, as is Ghost, and even Clydas is a bit weird.

General note: I think that "not getting involved in the affairs of the realm" should be logically understood also as "the affairs of the realm don't get involved in the Watch." I don't want to go and search for this right now, but a number of Watchmen, I think including even Bowen, were outraged by the fact that Stannis has allegedly threatened to choose if they didn't get their act together and make a decision. (I know that this is a half-truth Sam tells them, but the point is that they believed this and were outraged). The point being that the Watchmen got up in arms about an "outsider" invading the traditions of the Watch, considering the election sacred when it involved Stannis, but Bowen was more than willing to comply with the wishes of the Lannister.

Thanks on the question of the Berantheons, and yes, the part with the Jade Compendium is what tipped me off that Aemon might have suspected who he was, and thats apart and seperate from his being anything more than Rhaegars son.

I also go back to the part when he was talking him out of leaving.

I got this weird vibe that Aemon was almost including Jon in familial intimacy that was seperate from his Stark family, like in a roundabout way, he was telling Jon the story of his "other" family and their deaths.

[The Lost Lord]

This is the quote from ASOS: "Lord Tywin favors Slynt. I can show you his lettr Othell. His faithful friend and servant he calle him". Marsh is letting his desire to please Tywin Lannister, a man who has never give a fig about the wall, propose for Lord Commander a man who has little time in the wall and by all accounts looks to be very incompetent.

I know y'all are Jon apologists, but this is... something. Jon gives Stannis an extremely specific battle plan and strategy for taking over the North. Jon sends Mance south to steal the Lord of Winterfell's bride. Jon arranges a marriage between a Northern noble girl and a wildling and locks up the girl's relatives who disagree. Jon announces his plans to march south against the Lord of Winterfell with an army of wildlings. None of that is oathbreaking (according to y'all).

Yet Bowen taking sides in the Night Watch's own free election for who should be the Night Watch's own Lord Commander, while simply mentioning the preference of the Iron Throne... that is taking part in the affairs of the realm?

General note: I think that "not getting involved in the affairs of the realm" should be logically understood also as "the affairs of the realm don't get involved in the Watch."

No it should not. There is no support for this.

I don't want to go and search for this right now, but a number of Watchmen, I think including even Bowen, were outraged by the fact that Stannis has allegedly threatened to choose if they didn't get their act together and make a decision.

What? You call Marsh, Thorne, and Slynt fools, cowards, and cravens up and down and now you cite their assessment to justify your views, pretending it's a precedent?