(SPOILERS ADWD) The Nasty Tourn-ey of Events at Harrenhal

[Belandra Waters]

This thread has been created from a discussion that started under another topic. I thought it merited its own thread, so I would like to offer the following;

MtnLion put forth the following theory:

“ Barristan recalls that a man dishonored Ashara at Harrenhal, fully two years before Jon was born. Ask yourselves how does Barristan know that Ashara was dishonored? Ask yourselves why Barristan would not know who dishonored his love object if he knew that she was dishonored?. Ask yourselves who is the one person that Barristan would never name, even in his thoughts?

No one is going to accuse the king of rape, especially if the king is Aerys. So, Ashara most likely was dishonored by Aerys at Harrenhal (the first time he had left the Red Keep since Barristan rescued him).”

We have the following account from Barristan Selmy (ADWD) regarding events at the Harrenhal Tourney:

“With Varys whispering in his ear, King Aerys became convinced that his son was conspiring to depose him, that Whent’s tourney was but a ploy to give Rhaegar a pretext for meeting with as many great lords as could be brought together. Aerys had not set foot outside the Red Keep since Duskendale, yet suddenly he announced that he would accompany Prince Rhaegar to Harrenhal, and everything had gone awry from there. “

I think that most of us would agree that this tourney is the beginning of the saga of Rhaegar and Lyanna, but it seems that, all things being equal, this relationship would have unfolded pretty much as it did even if Aerys had not attended the tourney. Aerys could not have ordered Rhaegar to find the KoLT, but Rhaegar did not present Lyanna to the King anyways. Rhaegar, on his own, likely would have sought out the KoLT and named Lyanna the Queen of Beauty and Love, with or without King Aeyrs being present.

What other event could have occurred at Harrenhal that would not likely have happened had Aerys not been in attendance? The dishonoring of Ashara Dayne, perhaps?

Selmy, as a sworn Brother of the Kingsguard, is sworn to protect the King and keep his secrets. Ser Barristan continues with his chain of thought:

“But Ashara’s daughter had been stillborn, and his fair lady had thrown herself from a tower soon after, mad with grief for the child she had lost, and perhaps for the man who had dishonored her at Harrenhal as well. She died never knowing that Ser Barristan had loved her. How could she? He was a knight of the Kingsguard, sworn to celibacy. No good could have come from telling her his feelings. No good came from silence either. If I had unhorsed Rhaegar and crowned Ashara queen of love and beauty, might she have looked to me instead of Stark? He would never know. But of all his failures, none haunted Barristan Selmy so much as that.”

Rather than viewing the “looked to Stark” recollection as evidence that it was either Brandon or Ned that dishonored her, I think it means that, had Selmy declared his love for her, it would have been to Selmy that Ashara looked to for help and comfort after the rape. I think it is how the assumption of the romance between Ashara and Ned started. It seems likely that Ashara became pregnant at Harrenhal, with Aerys’ child. I think when it became obvious that Ashara was pregnant, Ned did nothing, actively or passively, to prevent the rumors and would allow his honor to suffer rather than Ashara’s.

[ab aeterno]

Some really good ideas/thoughts, I like it. I especially like the "look to Stark" part. Nice work.

[Ciazio]

snip

Approved, thrice approved!

I like it... but... If you think that Ashara went pregnant at Harrenhall... her baby would have been born before the end of the war.

And she wouldn't have killed herself because of her baby's death, since Ned visited her after the ToJ.

So... either she killed herself because Ned refused her (since he was yet married) or she's still kicking somewhere.

I don't believe at all the "Septa Lemore is Ashara" thing, so... what do you suggest? Is she really dead? Was her daughter truly stillborn? Was her daughter truly a daughter? (I'm looking at you, Darkstar)

[Ciazio]

double post

[Lord Liam DarkStark]

We don't know when ashara got prego and had the babe. But I could see aerys raping her. If that's the case then she had a child and it possibly survived. Cause she didn't throw herself from a tower for two years after the year of the false spring. Kinda odd nine months after harrenhal she has a still born and just waits another year to jump to her death. Maybe the added grief of arthur dayne's death made her do it. But that would clear up aegon is a true dragon. But he would be his father's son. So I could see him going nuts. I don't see dany going mad. I could see cersei going mad but not dany

[Ciazio]

We don't know when ashara got prego and had the babe. But I could see aerys raping her. If that's the case then she had a child and it possibly survived. Cause she didn't throw herself from a tower for two years after the year of the false spring. Kinda odd nine months after harrenhal she has a still born and just waits another year to jump to her death. Maybe the added grief of arthur dayne's death made her do it.

Add to this the fact that maybe she offered herself to Ned in memory of the old times and that Ned refused her and you'll have a perfect recipe for a suicide.

But that would clear up aegon is a true dragon. But he would be his father's son. So I could see him going nuts.

Wait, are you suggesting that Young Griff is Ashara's and Aerys'?

Time wise it might work (16 and 17 years old boys are not that different) but how could have he ended in Varys' hands?

[Belandra Waters]

I have purposely not speculated on the fate of Ashara's baby. There are so many threads debating what happened regarding her and the baby.

If this theory (re Aerys and Ashara) is plausible in the opinion of others, then I'd love to move on to those "what-ifs".

[MtnLion]

Thanks for the nice opener, Belandra.

Let me offer the line of reasoning that brought me back to Harrenhal and Ashara's dishonor. If we assume that the accounts of Varys and Barristan are partially correct, within their limited viewpoints. Elia was not yet pregnant with her second child at Harrenhal. Suppose the girls, who were close by all accounts, gave birth at the same time. I think that the stillborn daughter is Rhaegar's child and that Elia and Ashara conspired to switch babies. Elia would desire a male child for inheritance purposes, and Ashara would know that her child would be a bastard. So, Elia’s stillborn daughter becomes Ashara’s bastard some months before the war begins.

Rhaegar names Ashara's child Aegon, but I see subtle hints that he and Arthur Dayne knew of the switch. Along comes the war, and the sack of King's Landing. Varys could have stolen through the secret passages and replaced Aegon with another child, which he sends off to Illyrio for safe keeping. Ned (perhaps with Ashara's help) finds the Tower of Joy, and kills Ashara's brother. He returns Dawn to House Dayne, and relays that Aegon had been killed in the sack. Ashara would now be filled with grief, her child is dead, her brother is dead, and Ned has already married another so is unable to help her reclaim her honor.

I think that sometime shortly after Varys approaches Ashara with an offer that she cannot refuse. He offers her the chance to secretly raise Aegon as a king to reclaim the Iron Throne. I don't think that Varys or Barristan know about the baby switch. This would brighten Ashara's outlook, but before that is noticed she must appear to commit suicide by leaping from the Palestone Sword. Of course since she had been so despondent, no effort was spent looking for alternative endings for her, and her suicide is accepted.

Things are fitting together too neatly to not be intended.

[Lord Liam DarkStark]

Add to this the fact that maybe she offered herself to Ned in memory of the old times and that Ned refused her and you'll have a perfect recipe for a suicide.

Wait, are you suggesting that Young Griff is Ashara's and Aerys'?

Time wise it might work (16 and 17 years old boys are not that different) but how could have he ended in Varys' hands?

Yes its been suggested before, but I'm sure george could right it out that elia and ashara had made a plan when elia delivered a still born girl and ashara delivered a healthy boy from her rape. That she took the still born and allowed elia to have the boy to present to rhaegar. Then varys took that baby as he said he did from elia's arms.

[Lord Liam DarkStark]

Also to add. I don't believe this theory. It was just a thought, I don't think aegon is the real deal.

[MtnLion]

Also to add. I don't believe this theory. It was just a thought, I don't think aegon is the real deal.

If Aegon is proven to be Aerys' bastard, he is not the real deal. The only way that could be accounted for is by Ashara or someone else involved in the switch.

[Grizzly Mormont]

or what if it was barristan himself who did the dishonoring

[Belandra Waters]

If we start with the premise that Ashara left Harrenhal pregnant with Aerys' bastard (which obviously she could not know at the time), what are the possible scenarios?

She returns to KL with Elia, perhaps confides in her, discovers she's pregnant and goes to Starfall to wait out the birth. She delivers a stillborn daughter, suffers from postpartum depression and later, learning of her brother's death, commits suicide. End of story.

She returns to KL with Elia, they are both pregnant. Elia delivers a stillborn daughter, (prematurely to make the timeline work). Ashara, perhaps in fear for her just-delivered healthy baby boy, switches babies with Elia. Elia has the maleTargaryen heir for Rhaegor. Ashara returns to Starfall, uses the cover story of her stillborn daughter and gets on with her life. Later, she learns of the sack of KL, and the death of her actual son; that combined with the news of her brother's death, proves too much and she commits suicide.

Alternatively, before the sack of KL, Varys has switched fAegon with a peasant baby, smuggles fAegon out of KL, makes arrangements for him to be raised in exile. He enlists Ashara to help raise the boy (who better?), Ashara pretends to commit suicide and disappears, resurfacing as Septa Lemore later in the story.

I think that GRRM has said that Ashara was not in KL with Elia in the months before the sack. I think Rhaegar, to ensure his family's safety and keep them safe from Aerys, may have moved them to Starfall. It makes sense that he keeps his family safe (3 members of the KG) and either is with them there, or is nearby with Lyanna in the Tower of Joy. I can't quite imagine that Rhaegar abandoned his family in KL, but he disappears from KL for the better part of the war. It seems to fit the facts as we know them. I think he may have travelled back with them to KL just before the battle of the Trident, the trip may have been dangerous but most of the fighting was not in this area between Dorne and KL. Leaving Jaime in charge of their safety at KL was probably the best he could do.

Meanwhile, Rhaegar has left his 3 KG to protect the pregnant Lyanna and their soon-to-be-born child.

We are left with a fAegon, the bastard son of Aerys Targaryen, who may challenge for the throne but does not supercede either Jon's or Dany's claim.

Cersei's words to Sansa re Joffrey come to mind here, "You may never love the king, but you'll love his children." That certainly didn't apply to Cersei herself, so maybe it's meant to speak to Ashara's dilemma.

[Jem]

I agree, but think that Rhaegar was Ashara's baby daddy, as per my post here: http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/topic/56368-adwd-spoiler-how-to-swap-a-baby/

[Belandra Waters]

I agree, but think that Rhaegar was Ashara's baby daddy, as per my post here: http://asoiaf.wester...to-swap-a-baby/

Jem, I really, really like your theory. I like the idea that there was a prior relationship between Rhaegar and Ashara and that he may have spurned (could mean dishonored in Selmy's viewpoint) her at the tourney.

I think yours fits the quote by Selmy of "...grief for the child she lost, and perhaps for the man who dishonored her..." much better. It's ambiguous enough though, that it could mean she was grieving for the man himself (makes better sense if it's Rhaegar), or does it mean that she threw herself from the tower for (because of) the man who dishonored her, which fits Aerys better.

But we still have Selmy's viewpoint that Aerys decided "suddenly" to go to the tourney and that everything went awry. I think those two thoughts are definitely linked. What was made different by Aerys' attendance? I don't know if it's not the dishonoring of Ashara.

We also have Barristan\s high opinion of Rhaegar to consider and I wonder if he would have that if he held Rhaegar responsible for dishonoring Barristan's "lady love"?

Either way, we end up with a fAegon who is not the legitimate heir, right?

[MtnLion]

We need to straighten the timeline a small bit, since I read Jem's thread.

1. Harrenhal Tourney was in the year of the false spring, followed by another year of winter?
   
2. Ashara and Elia becoming pregnant at nearly the same time at Harrenhal would put the births during the winter.
   
3. Elia being pronounced unfit for further pregnancies obviously disappointed Rhaegar, if he doesn't betray that he knows of the switch with his expression in Daenerys' vision of him, Elia and Aegon.
   
4. Lyanna and Rhaegar make a connection some 9-12 motnhs after Harrenhal
   
5. Robert makes his accusations to Brandon, et al, about Rhaegar kidnapping and raping.
   
6. Brandon and Rickard are executed and Ned and Robert are demanded by Aerys.
   
7. Hasty gathering for war, and the sack of King's Landing must happen 19-23 months after Harrenhal (Aegon's age given by GRRM).
   
8. Tower of Joy is at least 9 months after Rhaegar and Lyanna connection.
   

I don't think that there is a fatal mistake in the timeline, even if Lyanna and Rhaegar took a little time to decide to marry. I think the description of Rhaegar by all who knew him made him out to be honorable. Lyanna seems to have her mind set on having a faithful marriage, as well. Aerys does not seem to have any scruples when it comes to what he wants, actually risking offending Tywin by his lust after Joanna at their marriage. Aerys definitely shows a bent to towards rape, too, with his own wife. I think that Barristan knew when, where, and who raped Ashara; but is too honorable to reveal it even to himself.

[Jem]

Jem, I really, really like your theory. I like the idea that there was a prior relationship between Rhaegar and Ashara and that he may have spurned (could mean dishonored in Selmy's viewpoint) her at the tourney.

I think yours fits the quote by Selmy of "...grief for the child she lost, and perhaps for the man who dishonored her..." much better. It's ambiguous enough though, that it could mean she was grieving for the man himself (makes better sense if it's Rhaegar), or does it mean that she threw herself from the tower for (because of) the man who dishonored her, which fits Aerys better.

But we still have Selmy's viewpoint that Aerys decided "suddenly" to go to the tourney and that everything went awry. I think those two thoughts are definitely linked. What was made different by Aerys' attendance? I don't know if it's not the dishonoring of Ashara.

We also have Barristan\s high opinion of Rhaegar to consider and I wonder if he would have that if he held Rhaegar responsible for dishonoring Barristan's "lady love"?

Either way, we end up with a fAegon who is not the legitimate heir, right?

Just throwing it out there, but maybe the thing that went awry with Aerys being present at Harrenhal was Rhaegar's plan to get some lords behind him to overthrow his father. I am pretty sure that is why Aerys went to Harrenhal in the first place, because he suspected that Rhaegar was plotting against him...and just because you're paranoid, don't mean they're not after you.

It is possible that if Rhaegar was able to put his father aside shortly after Harrenhal, then Rhaegar would be king and the whole thing with Lyanna and the war that followed wouldn't have happened - or at any rate, Brandon and Rickard wouldn't have been killed, even if they did object to Lyanna marrying Rhaegar, so the whole situation could have been resolved peacefully.

Also, on the Aerys being the one who dishonoured Ashara (and I don't entirely disagree with it), but on the negative side of the argument, as you say Belandra Waters, Barristan thinks that Ashara may have been grieving over the man who dishonoured her, so I don't think she was raped. Also, as far as I can recall, the only times that Aerys became aroused was when he burned someone (that is how Dany gets conceived), and as far as I know no one at Harrenhal was BBQ'd.

And (while I am at it), I just wanted to offer my speculation as to the nature of Rhaegar and Ashara's relationship. We know that Elia was very sick for a number of months after the birth of Rhaenys (and then again after the birth of her second child). Tywin Lannister had his pretty young daughter at court, both of them just waiting for Elia to fall of the perch so that they could pounce on Rhaegar. No doubt there were other noble fathers and daughters who also had their eye on Rhaegar too.

So if Elia could feel the sharks circling, she may have asked her hand-maid and fellow Dornish lady, Ashara, to keep Rhaegar occupied while Elia was unable to do so. Ashara could escort Rhaegar to balls and tourneys and go riding and hunting with him and (dare I say it) entertain him in the bedroom too, if the need arises. Being a trusted friend, Elia would feel that Rhaegar was safter in Ashara's hands than just wandering around on his own, waiting to be picked up by Cersei or someone else just as hungry. And, being a trusted friend, Elia could trust Ashara to hand Rhaegar back once she was well enough to have another child.

As I said, this is just speculation on my part, I have no evidence of it. Maybe it just comes from my reading of the novel The Other Boleyn Girl (not that it is necessarily historically accurate), where the king's mistress, Mary Boleyn, asks her sister Anne to 'mind' the king while she (Mary) is in confinement after having the king's baby.

Possibly Ashara grew a little bit too close to Rhaegar, or possibly he may have hinted to her that he was interested in taking another wife (as it would have seemed at that stage unlikely for Elia to have another child after Rhaenys). At Harrenhal, Ashara might have felt very let down and in need of comfort after Rhaegar showed an interest in Lyanna. And I should say that I don't think Rhaegar was a sex-crazed cad who was running around having sex willy-nilly with all the girls. The thing with Ashara was more about comfort and convenience and the thing with Lyanna was more about...take your pick....love|prophecy| politics.

[Belandra Waters]

We need to straighten the timeline a small bit, since I read Jem's thread.

1. Harrenhal Tourney was in the year of the false spring, followed by another year of winter?
   
   
2. Ashara and Elia becoming pregnant at nearly the same time at Harrenhal would put the births during the winter.
   
   
3. Elia being pronounced unfit for further pregnancies obviously disappointed Rhaegar, if he doesn't betray that he knows of the switch with his expression in Daenerys' vision of him, Elia and Aegon.
   
   
4. Lyanna and Rhaegar make a connection some 9-12 motnhs after Harrenhal
   
   
5. Robert makes his accusations to Brandon, et al, about Rhaegar kidnapping and raping.
   
   
6. Brandon and Rickard are executed and Ned and Robert are demanded by Aerys.
   
   
7. Hasty gathering for war, and the sack of King's Landing must happen 19-23 months after Harrenhal (Aegon's age given by GRRM).
   
   
8. Tower of Joy is at least 9 months after Rhaegar and Lyanna connection.
   

I don't think that there is a fatal mistake in the timeline, even if Lyanna and Rhaegar took a little time to decide to marry. I think the description of Rhaegar by all who knew him made him out to be honorable. Lyanna seems to have her mind set on having a faithful marriage, as well. Aerys does not seem to have any scruples when it comes to what he wants, actually risking offending Tywin by his lust after Joanna at their marriage. Aerys definitely shows a bent to towards rape, too, with his own wife. I think that Barristan knew when, where, and who raped Ashara; but is too honorable to reveal it even to himself.

I think the timeline is as accurate as it can be!

[Belandra Waters]

Just throwing it out there, but maybe the thing that went awry with Aerys being present at Harrenhal was Rhaegar's plan to get some lords behind him to overthrow his father. I am pretty sure that is why Aerys went to Harrenhal in the first place, because he suspected that Rhaegar was plotting against him...and just because you're paranoid, don't mean they're not after you.

It is possible that if Rhaegar was able to put his father aside shortly after Harrenhal, then Rhaegar would be king and the whole thing with Lyanna and the war that followed wouldn't have happened - or at any rate, Brandon and Rickard wouldn't have been killed, even if they did object to Lyanna marrying Rhaegar, so the whole situation could have been resolved peacefully.

Also, on the Aerys being the one who dishonoured Ashara (and I don't entirely disagree with it), but on the negative side of the argument, as you say Belandra Waters, Barristan thinks that Ashara may have been grieving over the man who dishonoured her, so I don't think she was raped. Also, as far as I can recall, the only times that Aerys became aroused was when he burned someone (that is how Dany gets conceived), and as far as I know no one at Harrenhal was BBQ'd.

And (while I am at it), I just wanted to offer my speculation as to the nature of Rhaegar and Ashara's relationship. We know that Elia was very sick for a number of months after the birth of Rhaenys (and then again after the birth of her second child). Tywin Lannister had his pretty young daughter at court, both of them just waiting for Elia to fall of the perch so that they could pounce on Rhaegar. No doubt there were other noble fathers and daughters who also had their eye on Rhaegar too.

So if Elia could feel the sharks circling, she may have asked her hand-maid and fellow Dornish lady, Ashara, to keep Rhaegar occupied while Elia was unable to do so. Ashara could escort Rhaegar to balls and tourneys and go riding and hunting with him and (dare I say it) entertain him in the bedroom too, if the need arises. Being a trusted friend, Elia would feel that Rhaegar was safter in Ashara's hands than just wandering around on his own, waiting to be picked up by Cersei or someone else just as hungry. And, being a trusted friend, Elia could trust Ashara to hand Rhaegar back once she was well enough to have another child.

As I said, this is just speculation on my part, I have no evidence of it. Maybe it just comes from my reading of the novel The Other Boleyn Girl (not that it is necessarily historically accurate), where the king's mistress, Mary Boleyn, asks her sister Anne to 'mind' the king while she (Mary) is in confinement after having the king's baby.

Possibly Ashara grew a little bit too close to Rhaegar, or possibly he may have hinted to her that he was interested in taking another wife (as it would have seemed at that stage unlikely for Elia to have another child after Rhaenys). At Harrenhal, Ashara might have felt very let down and in need of comfort after Rhaegar showed an interest in Lyanna. And I should say that I don't think Rhaegar was a sex-crazed cad who was running around having sex willy-nilly with all the girls. The thing with Ashara was more about comfort and convenience and the thing with Lyanna was more about...take your pick....love|prophecy| politics.

I think your theory is good and solid and backed up by the text and what we know. I think though, that Rhaegar still comes off as less than honorable, with his treatment of Ashara, Elia, and even Lyanna, and I find that hard to align with the high opinion held of him by so many different characters.

I also think that the incident of Harrenhal was the deciding factor for Arthur Dayne to throw his lot in with Rhaegar. I think that before this, he was willing to bide his time, knowing that sooner or later, Aerys would die and Rhaegar would ascend the throne. The rape of his sister by Aerys would seem to explain his apparent change of heart and I'm not so sure that he would behave the same way if he was aware of Rhaegar's actions toward his sister.

Another thing that keeps niggling at my mind...what if Rhaegar was ordered by Aerys to have the KoLT delivered to him at KL, and Rhaegar went personally to rescue/hide her? Under that scenario, Rhaegar may well have gone to Winterfell, Brandon was somewhere near Riverun, and "kidnapped/rescued" Lyanna with the full knowledge and blessing of Rickard. The official story may have been that he kidnapped her, in order to keep any complicity on the part of the Stark family secret...I dunno...

I have no idea how GRRM is going to pull all of this together, but it's fun to speculate!

[Black Wolf Smith]

I had been think that the MK might have raped Ashara for some time. I believe that she and Ned fell in love. I think while possible, it is unlikely that Ned sleep with her. I believe that Brandon wasn't the Asshole that some make him out to be.

I don't think that Brandon would try to get them together, and then turn around and sleep with her. He had already been matched with Cat. Cat thought they were in love. Brandon had fought LF for Cat, almost killing Lf. The only time we hear about Brandon being an Asshole is either from LF, and thru what Lady Dustin says (not that she say anything against him, herself) Yet 95% of the board think he was an Asshole.

So if she fell in love with Ned, and did not sleep with him, then who? I could only come up with 2 possible men that could have slept/ raped her. The first is a far fetched. If she went to the Vale, and Ned wasn't there, I truely believe that Robert could have gotten her drunk, and raped her. The only problem with that is there is nothing said that offers any proof of it.

The MK raped women, and was at HH. No one would have stopped him. The only pause is that Selmy, a KG doesn't know about it. I get he was fighting in the Tourney, and that means he wasn't guarding the King, at HH. But would not the other KG say something to him? The only way this can be told is thru Jaime, who was brought in to the KG at HHT.