Did Melisandre/The Lord of Light actually cause Robb, Joff, and Balon to die?

[The Angels' Prophet]

Okay, this is my first topic. I doubt it'll have a canon answer, but I'm just curious on what the amazing asoiaf fanbase thinks.

Forgive me if I omit some of the details, I'm lending a friend the books right now.

In ASoS, Melisandre takes leeches with Edric Storn's blood in them (At least, that's what Davos thinks) and tells Stannis to throw them into a fire, while uttering the usurper's names ( Robb Stark, Balon Grejoy, and Joffrey Baratheon). Melisandre states that the three false kings will die, and they do. Joff is poisoned by the Tyrells and LF, Robb is killed at the RW, and Balon falls( or is pushed, if you prefer) and dies. We've seen Melisandre's power before, many times, and I think everyone can agree that The Lord of Light is likely real.

I personally don't think it was coincidence, but I'm eager to see what you all think. :cool4:

[butterbumps!]

Emphatically, no. Those leeches are the Westeros equivalent of Mel running a late night infomercial advertising the amazingness of her powers. She foresaw those deaths in her fires and performed the leech-burning in order to set up a causation between her actions and the results of the deaths she had predicted as a way of looking more powerful/ in control.

[ab aeterno]

Personally, I think it was coincidence. I'm not 100% on the precise timeline, but I think that the Tywin/Roose/Westerline plot resulting in the Red Wedding; and the LF/Tyrells plot to kill Joffrey were already in motion before Mel did this ritual. Robb died, in the end, because he broke his vow and married Jeyne Westerline; Joffrey died because he was a vicious monster and made himself a target for too many people, especially devious people such as the Tyrells and LF. The most popular theory on Balon is, I believe, that Euron hired a FM to kill him. As butterbumps said, I suspect that this is probably Mel trying to prove that she/the Red God has real power after Stannis left her behind before the Blackwater.

[plurabel]

I agree with butterbumps! in that it was very deliberately a way of establishing causation to reinforce her power.

as for the lord of light being real, I don't know... I tend to think that none of the religions in asoiaf are exact representations of the truth but more like embodiments of general magic or a particular kind of nature dynamics that happens in this universe. the way I see it, magic exists in asoiaf in the form of a certain fluidity of time, causality and perception, then different cultures and points of view make up their own sets of symbolic figures, archetypical deities and whatnot pertaining to their traditions and using more or less "magic" according to their ways, taboos etc.

[Lady Sansa Stark]

Emphatically, no. Those leeches are the Westeros equivalent of Mel running a late night infomercial advertising the amazingness of her powers. She foresaw those deaths in her fires and performed the leech-burning in order to set up a causation between her actions and the results of the deaths she had predicted as a way of looking more powerful/ in control.

Yes, this. The plans were already made for the Red Wedding, and I think those of the Purple Wedding as well. Balon, well. Just bad luck, that one. Or maybe he had help from his dearly beloved brother Euron who came back the following day.

[Mikkel]

Yes, this. The plans were already made for the Red Wedding, and I think those of the Purple Wedding as well. Balon, well. Just bad luck, that one. Or maybe he had help from his dearly beloved brother Euron who came back the following day.

I don't think there's that much maybe about it :) Also, agree with everyone else, Mel is not powerless by any means, but she also knows when to use deception and theatrics to appear more powerful than she really is, and I believe this is such a case. Remember, she had a lot to gain by proving to Stannis the power of King's blood, as she believes that she needs it to wake the stone dragons.

[Tony Soprano]

I don't think Melisandre caused anything. At most, she could have seen their deaths in the fires, and then just asked Stannis to perform the ritual to make her look more powerful after the deaths actually happened.

[ab aeterno]

To be honest, I think you could make the case that their deaths were among the most predictable in the Seven Kingdoms. Robb led his army from the front and was a young, relatively inexperienced commander who was always likely to make a mistake eventually. Joffrey was obviously something of a psychopath, hated by everyone but his mother and surrounded by people who would have liked to see him dead, in a place where Jon Arryn had been murdered and Ned executed. He was also surrounded by the Tyrells, who seem to be known as particularly ambitious. Balon Greyjoy is the least unlikely, but a general knowledge of Ironborn culture might have made this a reasonable guess. Balon might be the least predictable in this regard.

If you look at other notable enemies of Stannis- Tywin commands from the rear, Edmure doesn't seem to lead his forces in battle, Lysa Arryn doesn leave the Eyrie, the Tyrells stay in KL other than Randyll Tarly.

The explanation that Mel has seen these things in her fires is probably the answer, but I would say that simple predictability is another possible explanation.

[FanTasy]

I have read it as Melisandre trying to tighten her grip on Stannis.

I'd have to reread that passage, but wasn't there some deal between them, thatStannis would give her the boy if she came up with proof that his blood was needed? I agree she saw things in her fire and the trick with the three leeches was just that: a trick to sell Stannis on what she wanted him to buy.

[Kolantero]

Yes, this. The plans were already made for the Red Wedding, and I think those of the Purple Wedding as well. Balon, well. Just bad luck, that one. Or maybe he had help from his dearly beloved brother Euron who came back the following day.

The old dwarf oracle/witch/cotf/whatever who met Arya said, among other things:

"I dreamt of a man without a face, waiting on a bridge that swayed and swung. On his shoulder perched a drowned crow with seaweed hanging from his wings." (ASoS p.210)

So (almost) certainly Balon went swimming with some help from him brother or a faceless man working for his brother

[kissdbyfire]

I don't believe for a second Mel caused those three deaths. I think she saw the deaths and used the knowledge to convince Stannis and others of her powers.

[Lady Wylla Manderly]

I don't think Melisandre caused anything. At most, she could have seen their deaths in the fires, and then just asked Stannis to perform the ritual to make her look more powerful after the deaths actually happened.

I always thought so, too. That's why she was so cryptic about it when Stannis asked if it would work. "It will... and it won't." What kind of an answer is this? My guess is that she saw them dying, but seeing as fire visions can be misinterpreted, she tried to dodge giving a solid answer.

[KristenM]

We've seen Melisandre's power before, many times, and I think everyone can agree that The Lord of Light is likely real.

I don't think everyone agrees with that at all. I think GRRM is an avowed atheist, and in his created world there would be no real gods. I think that's why we haven't seen any gods routinely answer prayers, etc. The most "powerful" Gods we've seen seem to be the Old Gods and the Red God. But in ADWD we learned that the old gods are actually just greenseers and CotF singers. We've also seen people who are shadowbinders like Mel, but who do not worship the Red God (like Mirri Maz Duur, who worshiped the Lamb God).

So, what I think GRRM has done is create a world in which magic is certainly real and people have constructed myths and religions around their magic, but no gods are actually real.

[Philip Baratheon]

I don't think she caused them to die. I think however that she did accurately predict their deaths by watching the flames.

[Lady Wylla Manderly]

I don't think everyone agrees with that at all. I think GRRM is an avowed atheist, and in his created world there would be no real gods. I think that's why we haven't seen any gods routinely answer prayers, etc. The most "powerful" Gods we've seen seem to be the Old Gods and the Red God. But in ADWD we learned that the old gods are actually just greenseers and CotF singers. We've also seen people who are shadowbinders like Mel, but who do not worship the Red God (like Mirri Maz Duur, who worshiped the Lamb God).

So, what I think GRRM has done is create a world in which magic is certainly real and people have constructed myths and religions around their magic, but no gods are actually real.

This make a lot of sense, seeing as in none of the ASOIAF religions, stuff like "creation" are mentioned. The idea of a God (in our world) is that he not only "watches over" the world but also "created" the world. I think it's absence in ASOIAF religions is a big hint that confirms what you said.

[redviper9]

Emphatically, no. Those leeches are the Westeros equivalent of Mel running a late night infomercial advertising the amazingness of her powers. She foresaw those deaths in her fires and performed the leech-burning in order to set up a causation between her actions and the results of the deaths she had predicted as a way of looking more powerful/ in control.

:agree: Brava!!!

[Jolene Brown]

I don't think she caused them to die. I think however that she did accurately predict their deaths by watching the flames.

I agree with this completely; HOWEVER, and I know that basically everyone disagrees with me from the last time I brought this up, I still think there is a possibility that this will come back to haunt Stannis. He is now almost totally and completely dependent on the North for support after his rash march to Winterfell, which has decimated his own loyalists. If people in the North find out about this ritual and that Robb was included, I think it will be pretty disastrous for him. I think people will be pretty pissed, especially Jon (we all know he'll be back).

I know, I know - you say, "But how will they found out?" People find shit out in this series. People will find out however George wants them to find out, if he thinks it'll help the storyline. People gossip. People hear about things. People were staying up to date on how many of the 3 leech people had died - that's where that whole 2 is not 3 conversation comes from when Mel is pressuring Stannis to give her Edric already and Davos is like, well, Joffrey isn't dead yet. There were more than a few people there for that conversation, as I remember it.

I just think we've seen George double back to old plot points before, and it makes sense to come back to this one.

[Fire Eater]

I agree with this completely; HOWEVER, and I know that basically everyone disagrees with me from the last time I brought this up, I still think there is a possibility that this will come back to haunt Stannis. He is now almost totally and completely dependent on the North for support after his rash march to Winterfell, which has decimated his own loyalists. If people in the North find out about this ritual and that Robb was included, I think it will be pretty disastrous for him. I think people will be pretty pissed, especially Jon (we all know he'll be back).

I know, I know - you say, "But how will they found out?" People find shit out in this series. People will find out however George wants them to find out, if he thinks it'll help the storyline. People gossip. People hear about things. People were staying up to date on how many of the 3 leech people had died - that's where that whole 2 is not 3 conversation comes from when Mel is pressuring Stannis to give her Edric already and Davos is like, well, Joffrey isn't dead yet. There were more than a few people there for that conversation, as I remember it.

I just think we've seen George double back to old plot points before, and it makes sense to come back to this one.

The news of the ritual would create a rift between Stannis and the Northmen, and have them considering joining Dany sometime after Aegon is dead and she commands the pro-Targ forces.

[Arkantos]

There's no way the northerners could find out, who was in the room, Stannis, Davos & Mel right? Unless Mel suddently decides to make Stannis look bad because someone else is AA, or Stannis/Davos takes a knock on the head, it won't come back to haunt him.

Then again, I could have a corrupted memory, and there may have been a room full of people.

[Jolene Brown]

Selyse and Axell Florent were both there when Mel, Stannis, and Davos talked about it after Robb's death. The dialogue "I saw you burn some leeches," precedes "And two false kings are dead.' Then Robb and Balon Greyjoy are specifically named in the dialogue afterwards. Sallador Saan was in the room as well, although he is not mentioned specifically after his contribution to the beginning of the conversation - he is never described as leaving either.

Why else would the Bastard of Nightsong, Gerald Gower, Lewys the Fishwife, Andrew Estermont and others help Davos smuggle Edric Storm away if they weren't aware of the urgency of the situation, predicated on the fact that Joffrey's death (the third person involved in the leech ritual) supposedly "proved" Melisandre's power and would lead Stannis to give Edric to her. What they are doing is treason - they could be burned to death - I can't believe they wouldn't involve themselves if they didn't know exactly what was going on. I get the impression that anyone of reasonable importance on Dragonstone probably had heard about the leech issue through the rumor mill. Oh, not only that, but the young Maester as well. Stannis says about Joffrey's death "Dwarf or leech, this killer served the kingdom well." Mel says "three is three." It's clear that the connection between Joff's death and the supposed fulfillment of the leech ritual is the predicating factor for the actions of everyone involved in helping Edric, and there are several of them.