Did Melisandre/The Lord of Light actually cause Robb, Joff, and Balon to die?

[Associate Maester]

She's not doing it though. Her god is doing it, because she made the proper offerings(kings blood) and asked him to.

That assumes the gods (or at least R'hllor) are real. Something of which we have no proof (as readers, but others within the story take as proof). The magic is certainly real, that does not mean R'hllor is an actual deity.

[Dr. Pepper]

She's not doing it though. Her god is doing it, because she made the proper offerings(kings blood) and asked him to.

As Associate Maester notes above, this assumes that the gods are real. There isn't any real proof that there are omniscient, absolute power deities floating around on Planetos. The closest we get is the singers in the trees. But even if we go with the idea that R'hllor exists, what good has it done Mel? What good did it do for him to decide that three kings needed to be offed? How did it aid Stannis or even Mel's plans?

Three dead kings didn't make Stannis a believer in R'hllor, nor did it make Davos (who's proven to have more sway over Davos than Mel) a believer. If this is a god who is all powerful and knowing, then why wouldn't Mel ask him to make them all believers so that the task is that much easier? Why doesn't Mel consider doing the same thing when she gets to the wall so that she can make Jon a believer? She's certainly obsessed with him, it would make sense that she try at least one thing to make him see that she can alter the course of things. If she can throw some leeches on a fire in order to get her god to fulfill a request, then why not do it again? Like I mentioned before, the wall is crawling with people who have king's blood.

I don't know, maybe she doesn't have leeches and the leeches are a necessary part of the ceremony. Maybe she sent Mance to Winterfell to steal some leeches from Bolton so that she could ask R'hllor to help her out a bit. This god sure does have a specific appetite which makes me think that if he were real, that the assumptions of his followers are just foolish human things that he doesn't care about. I mean, if he cared about The Great Other and the End of the World, wouldn't he just provide help with whatever gift they can come up with, even if it's blood stuffed in a pig's stomahc? Seems sort of stupid when you think about it.

[Helikzhan]

As Associate Maester notes above, this assumes that the gods are real. There isn't any real proof that there are omniscient, absolute power deities floating around on Planetos. The closest we get is the singers in the trees. But even if we go with the idea that R'hllor exists, what good has it done Mel? What good did it do for him to decide that three kings needed to be offed? How did it aid Stannis or even Mel's plans?

Three dead kings didn't make Stannis a believer in R'hllor, nor did it make Davos (who's proven to have more sway over Davos than Mel) a believer. If this is a god who is all powerful and knowing, then why wouldn't Mel ask him to make them all believers so that the task is that much easier? Why doesn't Mel consider doing the same thing when she gets to the wall so that she can make Jon a believer? She's certainly obsessed with him, it would make sense that she try at least one thing to make him see that she can alter the course of things. If she can throw some leeches on a fire in order to get her god to fulfill a request, then why not do it again? Like I mentioned before, the wall is crawling with people who have king's blood.

I don't know, maybe she doesn't have leeches and the leeches are a necessary part of the ceremony. Maybe she sent Mance to Winterfell to steal some leeches from Bolton so that she could ask R'hllor to help her out a bit. This god sure does have a specific appetite which makes me think that if he were real, that the assumptions of his followers are just foolish human things that he doesn't care about. I mean, if he cared about The Great Other and the End of the World, wouldn't he just provide help with whatever gift they can come up with, even if it's blood stuffed in a pig's stomahc? Seems sort of stupid when you think about it.

Another alternative is that the Others beyond the wall are under the control of rogue seers.

The reason that Bran noted so few Children of the Forest and the comment about mounds of bones might have been an internal war between Children over the purpose of the Others and a break in rank over that purpose. Some of the Children may have taken offense to sharing Westeros with man. They would likely be the reason the dead returned.

Like Bran was told by Leaf. He feared he would return his father to life by wishing it so. I appears that seers can bring the dead back to life. The ward on the caves also suggests to me someone in that group knows the origin of the Others and how to control them. Dragon glass? How would they know that? There is only one place those corpses for the Long Night could have come from and that's the war between First Men and the Children of the Forest.

More crackpot I guess but that's another possibility.

[kissdbyfire]

What I find to be indisputable is how Melisandre's hand is played. She doesn't kill anybody. She inspires the killing blow and makes such things accessible and possible.

Take for example the shadow fiend. That was Stannis. She was his concubine, his facilitator but nonetheless it was by his hand ultimately. The three would simply have been killed by Stannis as well via his concubine and (theoretically, crackpot?) her thralls. Kings blood does the bidding of the King.

I disagree, the shadowbabies are Mel's doing, and Mel's idea. She uses Stannis because she needs his 'life force', for lack of a better term, to bring forth the shadows. Later she tries to talk Davos into creating shadows with her.

ASoS, Davos

You are the mother of darkness. I saw that under Storm’s End, when you gave birth before my eyes.”

“Is the brave Ser Onions so frightened of a passing shadow? Take heart, then. Shadows only live when given birth by light, and the king’s fires burn so low I dare not draw off any more to make another son. It might well kill him.” Melisandre moved closer. “With another man, though . . . a man whose flames still burn hot and high . . . if you truly wish to serve your king’s cause, come to my chamber one night. I could give you pleasure such as you have never known, and with your life-fire I could make . . . ”

“ . . . a horror.” Davos retreated from her. “I want no part of you, my lady. Or your god. May the Seven protect me.”

I honestly think so.

Think of it like this....If you give Melly the credit for the ability to read the flames so as to accurately predict the deaths of 3 of the kings, why would you not place her power in the realm of being the spur?

She can see the future......but she can't offer kingsblood to affect it, even though we know that blood magic is very real, since it birthed dragons back into the world?

i'm willing to put the deaths at her door, which makes the hesitation Stannis showed when looking at the last leech so very disheartening.

I see Stannis and his family dying in the north. And maybe, if he hadn't caused Robbs death in the first place, he wouldn't have had to try to heal his realm at all.

Regarding the bolded part above, let me just say that I don't know that.

[OberynBlackfyre]

I honestly would have believed this to be true, but the only one I can really see her "causing" was Renly's death. I feel that if she had a hand in the death of the other kings, there would be a much, much more supernatural type of murder than what occurred. It means that Melisandre's magic would have to have MADE Robb fall in love with Jeyne, in order for the Freys to want to kill him. It would have had to ensure that margery and the Tyrells got in the perfect position to kill Joff, and while we do not know for sure, it would had to have planted to the idea in Eurons mind to kill his brother, yet for some reason I do not see her being that powerful to manipulate THAT much, Kingsblood or not.

Which brings me to my next opinion; she was all gun-ho about using Kingsblood to awaken the stone dragon and what not, and was wanting to burn Mance Rayder the first chance she got, and yet when she had her chance to do so, she went completely out of her way to keep Mance alive. Yes, she pleaded it was to help Jon, yet I think getting a supposed DRAGON on their side would have been more important than helping Jon get Arya back...so that seemed fishy.

For me, shes a "on the fence" character. She seemed manipulative and evil in the beginning, yet when she became a POV character, I knew she would have a purpose. I think she will be the thing that saves Jon Snow, but her end game may not be for the greater good.

[OberynBlackfyre]

Another alternative is that the Others beyond the wall are under the control of rogue seers.

The reason that Bran noted so few Children of the Forest and the comment about mounds of bones might have been an internal war between Children over the purpose of the Others and a break in rank over that purpose. Some of the Children may have taken offense to sharing Westeros with man. They would likely be the reason the dead returned.

Like Bran was told by Leaf. He feared he would return his father to life by wishing it so. I appears that seers can bring the dead back to life. The ward on the caves also suggests to me someone in that group knows the origin of the Others and how to control them. Dragon glass? How would they know that? There is only one place those corpses for the Long Night could have come from and that's the war between First Men and the Children of the Forest.

More crackpot I guess but that's another possibility.

I don't think that they meant he could actually bring his father back, but just that maybe his soul or essence would return when it was already at peace.

Also- the children of the forest always have seemed to help in the aid AGAINST the Others. They are probably more familiar with the actual knowledge of what species the White Walkers are, but as for controlling them, I do not think even the Three Eyed Crow has that power, otherwise he could have just controlled all the wights to stop attacking them before they entered the cave.

[DivineRobot]

Do you still doubt the power of R'hllor? If Melisandre wanted someone dead, he would be dead. Remember Renly and Cortnay Penrose? Even old god's magic couldn't protect Cortnay Penrose. You think all 3 kings just conveniently died around the same time because of some coincidence? All of you need to open your eyes and accept the lord of light as the one true god, for the night is dark and full of terrors.

[The Drunkard]

Do you still doubt the power of R'hllor? If Melisandre wanted someone dead, he would be dead. Remember Renly and Cortnay Penrose? Even old god's magic couldn't protect Cortnay Penrose. You think all 3 kings just conveniently died around the same time because of some coincidence? All of you need to open your eyes and accept the lord of light as the one true god, for the night is dark and full of terrors.

ALL HAIL THE LORD OF LIGHT.

[Scipio Africanus]

Do you still doubt the power of R'hllor? If Melisandre wanted someone dead, he would be dead. Remember Renly and Cortnay Penrose? Even old god's magic couldn't protect Cortnay Penrose. You think all 3 kings just conveniently died around the same time because of some coincidence? All of you need to open your eyes and accept the lord of light as the one true god, for the night is dark and full of terrors.

Renly and Penrose were killed by blood magic not R'hllor. The Storm Lands don't follow the gods of the First Men, not since the Andals came. It's like what Osha said to Bran back in GoT. The Old Gods have no power south of the neck where most of the weirwood groves were cut down.

[The Drunkard]

Renly and Penrose were killed by blood magic not R'hllor. The Storm Lands don't follow the gods of the First Men, not since the Andals came. It's like what Osha said to Bran back in GoT. The Old Gods have no power south of the neck where most of the weirwood groves were cut down.

There is a comment though, that Mel makes about Storm's End being protected by magic of some sort. As Storm's End was possibly built by Brandon the Builder, it could be imbued with Old God magic.

[Scipio Africanus]

There is a comment though, that Mel makes about Storm's End being protected by magic of some sort. As Storm's End was possibly built by Brandon the Builder, it could be imbued with Old God magic.

I suppose.

But then again Red Mel misinterpets a lot of things. And besides, the Wall is protected by Old Gods magic but it's only a limited form of protection. The Wall most certainly could be taken by mortal forces for example. Storm's End is no different. I doubt Old Gods magic could protect against conventional besieging armies or even protect individuals from blood magic. The magic the CoF and the Old Gods seems more to be directed against the Others rather then against humans.

[Helikzhan]

I don't think that they meant he could actually bring his father back, but just that maybe his soul or essence would return when it was already at peace.

Also- the children of the forest always have seemed to help in the aid AGAINST the Others. They are probably more familiar with the actual knowledge of what species the White Walkers are, but as for controlling them, I do not think even the Three Eyed Crow has that power, otherwise he could have just controlled all the wights to stop attacking them before they entered the cave.

Willpower is a strange thing. It can mean a tug of war on a man's (or woman's) soul. Likely even the walking dead. The Three Eyed Crow is but one seer who reached out to Bran. There could be more with far more deadly end goals for mankind. I wouldn't be surprised if there was a seer who was more powerful than the 3 eyed Crow somewhere far north who was commanding the Others to smash all men and dissidents.

[ab aeterno]

There is a comment though, that Mel makes about Storm's End being protected by magic of some sort. As Storm's End was possibly built by Brandon the Builder, it could be imbued with Old God magic.

I think that GRRM commented that Bran the Builder was largely mythic and that he certainly didn't build Storm's End, (though I'm not sure if he commented on whether the Builder built the Wall and Winterfell. IIRC he said that people just attributed feats that they couldn't understand to legendary figures because it was the only way they could comprehend that it had been built by men. In this context, the "magic" might just be the fact that its walls are massive and strong. This is only speculation, mind you, I'm not inclined to defend it as an argument. :)

[The Bloody Boar]

I don't remember any other places where Mel pretended to have more power than she actually possessed, although the converse, where she admits to limitations on her power, does occur.

Just because she doesn't kill them directly, zapping them with magic lightning, doesn't mean her magic had no effect. It worked a bit like a curse that says you will be in the wrong place at the wrong time to catch a stray bullet; luck will just not go your way.

[Just an archer]

I don't think so, I think Melsandre just got lucky, or maybe she saw them dying in her fires and used that information to convince Stannis that he had to sacrifice Edric Storm to win the war. Good thing Davos was around.

[butterbumps!]

I don't remember any other places where Mel pretended to have more power than she actually possessed, although the converse, where she admits to limitations on her power, does occur.

Just because she doesn't kill them directly, zapping them with magic lightning, doesn't mean her magic had no effect. It worked a bit like a curse that says you will be in the wrong place at the wrong time to catch a stray bullet; luck will just not go your way.

Well, one tip-off for me was when she thinks about how she won't have to resort to cheap tricks of pyromancers if the magic around her keeps increasing. I think that her POV chapter really exposes how obsessed she is with getting people to think she's powerful, and that she's willing to do anything in order to preserve this illusion (and telling Jon she saw Eastwatch in her vision when she knows plum well it wasn't Eastwatch is another such case).

I don't think it worked like a curse. It was going to happen whether she did nothing, burned leeches or paid tribute to the flying spaghetti monster. There doesn't seem to be curses in ASOIAF with the possible exception of the karmic retribution of those who defile guest right or kinslay, and in those cases the other citizens of Westeros mete out punishment for those actions rather than some act of god or sorcery that doles out justice. Instead, I think a more poignant question might probe the friction between free-will and scripted prophesies, which is at the heart of this leech-burning thing.

[ab aeterno]

Well, one tip-off for me was when she thinks about how she won't have to resort to cheap tricks of pyromancers if the magic around her keeps increasing. I think that her POV chapter really exposes how obsessed she is with getting people to think she's powerful, and that she's willing to do anything in order to preserve this illusion (and telling Jon she saw Eastwatch in her vision when she knows plum well it wasn't Eastwatch is another such case).

I don't think it worked like a curse. It was going to happen whether she did nothing, burned leeches or paid tribute to the flying spaghetti monster. There doesn't seem to be curses in ASOIAF with the possible exception of the karmic retribution of those who defile guest right or kinslay, and in those cases the other citizens of Westeros mete out punishment for those actions rather than some act of god or sorcery that doles out justice. Instead, I think a more poignant question might probe the friction between free-will and scripted prophesies, which is at the heart of this leech-burning thing.

Exactly. The only direct magic that we have seen Mel do was the shadowbaby, and for that she had to be close. All the rest of the "magic" she does: Lightbringer, the shrouds; her fires; they're all concerned with appearances and illusions rather than true physical effects. The point about what she tells Jon is another good one.

Mel really seems to be concerned about power, and as Varys says, power is an illusion. It's all about apearances with her. She does have some power, without a doubt, but I don't think she has the kind of power to bring about the downfall of three kings; or the power to control luck or fate. With Robb and Joffrey there was very little luck involved anyway. Forseeing the deaths and then making it appear as though she caused them seems more in line with Mels' M.O.

I don't remember any other places where Mel pretended to have more power than she actually possessed, although the converse, where she admits to limitations on her power, does occur.

Just because she doesn't kill them directly, zapping them with magic lightning, doesn't mean her magic had no effect. It worked a bit like a curse that says you will be in the wrong place at the wrong time to catch a stray bullet; luck will just not go your way.

Is there any evidence that her magic worked like a "curse" in that way though? The actions of all those involved in Robb's death and Joffrey's death are entirely in character for those people. No-one is acting in a manner at all inconsistent with their aims or interests. I think that all the available evidence from the text suggests that they would have been killed anyway. Balon is slightly less straigtforward, but his death is also possibly foreshadowed by Theon:

But Greyjoys were not murdered in Pyke except once in a great while by their brothers, and his brothers were both dead.

ACoK, Chapter 11

...and Euron has the motive and the disposition to do something like that.

[Mulled Wino]

No need, I think I won't get any answers that way (by the way, these questions do not only apply to Stannis; last year I had many debates concerning Daenerys burning MMD and crucifying the slavers - usually this would get you into a real shitstorm, but today it's very different on these boards). Actually I don't think Stannis doubted that Mel could kill those kings, he explicitly told Davos that he makes use of her because of her powers. She gave him ample proof of her powers, for example by drinking poison. I am not sure that Melisandre is as powerless as she is made out lately. She made that eagle burn in mid-air, that seems impressive. And the shadowbaby seems like pretty advanced magic. Maybe she is bad with her fire-reading, but I think she could have find a way to kill those kings if she wanted to. Maybe it was just easier to pull that little trick with the leeches. After all she makes it a point to have her magic appear as effortless as possible.

so you're just going to interrupt threads....and not make a separate thread based on what you "think" will happen if you make the thread.

[Sasha Steelsong]

I definitely think she has powers. Just not the power to kill via leech-burning, which I think is about as effective at regicide as sending the cookie monster as a hitman.

I am not that quick to write off her ability to "curse" for lack of a better word, as I think MMD cursed Dany and did not give her a prophesy, so I at least have found curses in this world.

Now while I think that the likely course of events was that she saw the deaths and then burned the leaches, I'm not convinced that the leaches had NO effect...just were not the primary cause of the Kings' deaths. I could buy that all three plans were given a little bit of tangible magical luck by her actions, given that all three went to plan so perfectly (and when do plans ever really go perfectly). Given the fact that her powers are real I don't think we can say for certain that the leaches were all for show, even if that is how Mel intended them. Magic is waking up, that is a fact. Mel has noticed her powers growing at the Wall but others far from the wall have also noticed their magic growing, so it is possible that the ritual wasn't as empty as she thought it was.

ETA: To be clear I don't think Mel thought her ritual would be more than smoke and mirrors but with magic waking up, her having an obvious and powerful connection to it, I'm not convinved Mel knows as much about herself and her powers as she thinks she does. For instance, I think her visions have been only showing her a few steps down the road she needs to take but she thinks she's seeing the whole way. For example, her visions brought her to Sannis not becuase he's AA but because she needs to be with him to find AA later, and she just got the meaning wrong.

[Dr. Pepper]

I don't remember any other places where Mel pretended to have more power than she actually possessed, although the converse, where she admits to limitations on her power, does occur.

As bumps! explains above, Mel's POV in Dance was basically an entire chapter devoted to her revealing that she pretends to have more power than she does.

Just because she doesn't kill them directly, zapping them with magic lightning, doesn't mean her magic had no effect. It worked a bit like a curse that says you will be in the wrong place at the wrong time to catch a stray bullet; luck will just not go your way.

The problem with this is that Joffrey's and Robb's assassinations were already in the works and had been for quite some time. There was enough foreshadowing that they would die before Mel threw some bloody worms into the fire. Mel's power would have been much more assured if Joff and Robb had died in a manner similar to Balon, who's death seems, at least on the surface, to be accidental or at least mysterious. Balon's death at least appears to be a 'wrong place, wrong time' type of curse. There is nothing about Joff's and Robb's death that is 'wrong place, wrong time'. A fall from a horse, a drunken stumble on the throne, a slip down the stairs....those are 'wrong place, wrong time' type deaths. Instead, their deaths took extensive planning by many people that Melisandre would have no control over. And if she did, if her bloody leeches altered the free will of dozens of individuals, then why hasn't she done it again? The lady is surrounded by people with king's blood! Imagine all the will's she could control with just a few bloody leeches now that her power is strengthened at the wall!