Did Melisandre/The Lord of Light actually cause Robb, Joff, and Balon to die?

[Sasha Steelsong]

As bumps! explains above, Mel's POV in Dance was basically an entire chapter devoted to her revealing that she pretends to have more power than she does.

The problem with this is that Joffrey's and Robb's assassinations were already in the works and had been for quite some time. There was enough foreshadowing that they would die before Mel threw some bloody worms into the fire. Mel's power would have been much more assured if Joff and Robb had died in a manner similar to Balon, who's death seems, at least on the surface, to be accidental or at least mysterious. Balon's death at least appears to be a 'wrong place, wrong time' type of curse. There is nothing about Joff's and Robb's death that is 'wrong place, wrong time'. A fall from a horse, a drunken stumble on the throne, a slip down the stairs....those are 'wrong place, wrong time' type deaths. Instead, their deaths took extensive planning by many people that Melisandre would have no control over. And if she did, if her bloody leeches altered the free will of dozens of individuals, then why hasn't she done it again? The lady is surrounded by people with king's blood! Imagine all the will's she could control with just a few bloody leeches now that her power is strengthened at the wall!

Yes but foreshaddowing only indicated that there would be attempts on their lives, not that all the attempts would succeed. In fact what gets me leaning to the side of the leaches having some effect (and I don't mean primary, more like they harnessed forces already in motion) is her 100% accuracy rate on this. She seems to interpret so many things poorly from the fires that the fact that she's 100% right in this case makes me suspicious. I mean look at the luck Cersei had in Sansa coming to her with Ned's plan. All it would take for someone to alert the Lannisters about the attempt on Joffrey is one set of loose lips but nothing. The RW is easier because it wasn't Robb's seat of power and he was a guest, but even his death required luck to pull off so well.

As for why she hasn't tried it since, I don't think she has a clear picture of her own powers or the extent to which they've grown. I firmly believe she believed she was putting the leaches foward as smoke and mirrors, but like many things with her I'm not sure she had a complete picture to work with. It is just as possible that whatever sent her the images of the deaths did so precisely so she would use the leaches. Until we know who/what is leading Mel around it is hard to 100 % exclude the possibility of the magic having some effect.

[Lord Davos Seaworth]

No, the Lord of Light is a troll by GRRM.

Hey guys - here are a bunch of mysterious things that real life can't explain, so it must be the work of a god!

[Sasha Steelsong]

No, the Lord of Light is a troll by GRRM.

Hey guys - here are a bunch of mysterious things that real life can't explain, so it must be the work of a god!

Is there real magic in your world? Cause that is the key difference, in (what is the name of the whole planet not just the continents of Westeros and Essos?) magic/the supernatural has definitive elements that change the normal calculation "can't explain so it must be a god" way of thinking.

[ab aeterno]

As for why she hasn't tried it since, I don't think she has a clear picture of her own powers or the extent to which they've grown. I firmly believe she believed she was putting the leaches foward as smoke and mirrors, but like many things with her I'm not sure she had a complete picture to work with. It is just as possible that whatever sent her the images of the deaths did so precisely so she would use the leaches. Until we know who/what is leading Mel around it is hard to 100 % exclude the possibility of the magic having some effect.

Just to shut this part down before it starts again. No-one is suggesting that we can explicitly and conclusively rule out Mel's magic having any effect. What people argue is that all of the deaths, the situations leading up to them, and the motives of those involved make perfect sense without the magic being involved.

Could Mel's magic be involved? Of course it could. I think that it is somewhat unlikely based upon what we know about Mel's tendency to use smoke and mirrors, as many posters have pointed out, and the fact that she has never demonstrated this kind of power before or since, the shadowbaby seeming to be entirely different.

Yes but foreshaddowing only indicated that there would be attempts on their lives, not that all the attempts would succeed. In fact what gets me leaning to the side of the leaches having some effect (and I don't mean primary, more like they harnessed forces already in motion) is her 100% accuracy rate on this. She seems to interpret so many things poorly from the fires that the fact that she's 100% right in this case makes me suspicious. I mean look at the luck Cersei had in Sansa coming to her with Ned's plan. All it would take for someone to alert the Lannisters about the attempt on Joffrey is one set of loose lips but nothing. The RW is easier because it wasn't Robb's seat of power and he was a guest, but even his death required luck to pull off so well.

Personally, I find the idea of Mel's ritual/magic buffing the plotters "luck" skill somewhat unconvincing, I'm afraid. It gets into the territory of mass mind control, being able to ensure that the Lannisters don't find out about it. That had more to do with LF and Varys and Olenna than it did with Mel, I suspect. As to Robb- that required very little luck because they just operated under false pretences. It's not hard to succeed in an ambush when you are betraying "friends."

[Sasha Steelsong]

Just to shut this part down before it starts again. No-one is suggesting that we can explicitly and conclusively rule out Mel's magic having any effect. What people argue is that all of the deaths, the situations leading up to them, and the motives of those involved make perfect sense without the magic being involved.

Could Mel's magic be involved? Of course it could. I think that it is somewhat unlikely based upon what we know about Mel's tendency to use smoke and mirrors, as many posters have pointed out, and the fact that she has never demonstrated this kind of power before or since, the shadowbaby seeming to be entirely different.

And I'm not seeing a single person argue that magic was necssary for all of the deaths to occur, which seems to be what you are arguing against. If Mel's magic COULD be involved then just because things could have happened non-magically does not prove that they did happen without any magical involvement. What I am saying is that the verifiable existance of magic in the world (which there seems to be no doubt of), particularly magic that we know Mel doesn't totally understand as she gets things wrong, means we can't know for certain one way or another. You seem to want to take a position that definitively makes the deaths non-magical in origin. I don't believe we can get to any kind of certainty and that it is equally possible that there was no magic as that there was but it was more subtile than a shaddowbaby.

[butterbumps!]

I am not that quick to write off her ability to "curse" for lack of a better word, as I think MMD cursed Dany and did not give her a prophesy, so I at least have found curses in this world.

Now while I think that the likely course of events was that she saw the deaths and then burned the leaches, I'm not convinced that the leaches had NO effect...just were not the primary cause of the Kings' deaths. I could buy that all three plans were given a little bit of tangible magical luck by her actions, given that all three went to plan so perfectly (and when do plans ever really go perfectly). Given the fact that her powers are real I don't think we can say for certain that the leaches were all for show, even if that is how Mel intended them. Magic is waking up, that is a fact. Mel has noticed her powers growing at the Wall but others far from the wall have also noticed their magic growing, so it is possible that the ritual wasn't as empty as she thought it was.

ETA: To be clear I don't think Mel thought her ritual would be more than smoke and mirrors but with magic waking up, her having an obvious and powerful connection to it, I'm not convinved Mel knows as much about herself and her powers as she thinks she does. For instance, I think her visions have been only showing her a few steps down the road she needs to take but she thinks she's seeing the whole way. For example, her visions brought her to Sannis not becuase he's AA but because she needs to be with him to find AA later, and she just got the meaning wrong.

I don't think that MMD actually cursed Dany. MMD had a long-winded way of telling Dany that she'd never have a live child again. I do not for a second believe that MMD had anything to do with making Dany allegedly barren in terms of cursing her.

On the second point, I'm not so sure that it makes any sense at all to consider that these leeches had any impact on anything. Don't the things in the fire always actually happen? A grey girl on a dying horse does in fact show up at the Wall without an intermediary of leeches. Same with the rangers that the Weeper's men killed. If leech burnings had an effect on anything whatsoever, wouldn't we see her burning a few in private? Especially when we know how damn much she wants Jon to trust her, wouldn't a scorched leech or two have helped 'cement" the grey girl's coming to the Wall? Especially because her powers are so amplified now?

I think Mel has a lot of powers. I even think has powers that she doesn't herself truly understand in all their manifestations. But I have a really hard time believing that she is some sort of Fate that has the power to seal, cement, change or prevent things that have been seen in the fires via leech burnings.

[ab aeterno]

And I'm not seeing a single person argue that magic was necssary for all of the deaths to occur, which seems to be what you are arguing against. If Mel's magic COULD be involved then just because things could have happened non-magically does not prove that they did happen without any magical involvement. What I am saying is that the verifiable existance of magic in the world (which there seems to be no doubt of), particularly magic that we know Mel doesn't totally understand as she gets things wrong, means we can't know for certain one way or another. You seem to want to take a position that definitively makes the deaths non-magical in origin. I don't believe we can get to any kind of certainty and that it is equally possible that there was no magic as that there was but it was more subtile than a shaddowbaby.

Deep breath. No. I'm not arguing that. What I am arguing is quite simple:

If something such as magic isn't neccessary to explain an occurrence; that is, if events, such as the deaths of the three kings can be logically and reasonably explained without resorting to an external force such as magic, it is logically acceptable to conclude that magic probably didn't play a part.

This argument works exactly the same as the argument against intelligent design. Because evolution and natural selection make perfect logical and scientific sense without an resorting to the explanation that an intelligent designer must have guided the processes, we can reasonable conclude that it is unlikely that an intelligent designer was involved.

Also, for the last time, I swear that I couldn't be clearer about this, I'm not saying that magic couldn't be invovled. I'm sick of making this point. What I am saying, and what everyone else is saying as well, is that magic probably wasn't involved in these deaths, based upon everything we know about them. We can't conclusively rule it out, but it seems more likely that it wasn't involved.

[Sasha Steelsong]

Deep breath. No. I'm not arguing that. What I am arguing is quite simple:

If something such as magic isn't neccessary to explain an occurrence; that is, if events, such as the deaths of the three kings can be logically and reasonably explained without resorting to an external force such as magic, it is logically acceptable to conclude that magic probably didn't play a part.

And I would completely agree with you...IF we weren't discussing a world where magic is real and waking up. But we are dealing with a world where magic is real and waking up, so I'm not convinved the same rules apply. And won't discount its potential, particularly in regards to Mel.

[Sasha Steelsong]

On the second point, I'm not so sure that it makes any sense at all to consider that these leeches had any impact on anything. Don't the things in the fire always actually happen? A grey girl on a dying horse does in fact show up at the Wall without an intermediary of leeches. Same with the rangers that the Weeper's men killed. If leech burnings had an effect on anything whatsoever, wouldn't we see her burning a few in private? Especially when we know how damn much she wants Jon to trust her, wouldn't a scorched leech or two have helped 'cement" the grey girl's coming to the Wall? Especially because her powers are so amplified now?

I think Mel has a lot of powers. I even think has powers that she doesn't herself truly understand in all their manifestations. But I have a really hard time believing that she is some sort of Fate that has the power to seal, cement, change or prevent things that have been seen in the fires via leech burnings.

I'm not sure it makes sense to discuss it because I think it will never be addressed and it is just a way for us to fill time between books if we are being totally honest.

However, as to why she doesn't do it again: Because I don't think she's at all aware of the extent of her powers, I think it is totally possible she did a ritual she learned as a priestess, that she believed to be smoke and mirrors but because of rising magic is actually working as a spell again. There is the mention of those street magicians Dany sees using tricks before but now they are able to do the real deal, and the rising of Beric. Thoros just said a prayer, one that he had said countless times before as just a prayer but this time it worked out to be so much more. So it is not as if things aren't working like that already in GRRM's world. But Mel in her typically myopic view doesn't think she had any real effect and so she hasn't turned to it now that she has other things she can access at the Wall.

[ab aeterno]

And I would completely agree with you...IF we weren't discussing a world where magic is real and waking up. But we are dealing with a world where magic is real and waking up, so I'm not convinved the same rules apply. And won't discount its potential, particularly in regards to Mel.

We know that using smoke and mirrors, illusions, shrouds etc. are typical of Mel's modus operandi, but I don't recall seeing her "curse" people on any other occasion, or using that type of magic. The closest she gets is the shadow baby, and she has to be smuggled right to Storm's End for that to work.

Yes, magic exists, and yes, it could be involved, but neither the deaths themselves or Mel's usual use of magic suggests that it is likely to have been involved here.

I'm not sure it makes sense to discuss it because I think it will never be addressed and it is just a way for us to fill time between books if we are being totally honest.

However, as to why she doesn't do it again: Because I don't think she's at all aware of the extent of her powers, I think it is totally possible she did a ritual she learned as a priestess, that she believed to be smoke and mirrors but because of rising magic is actually working as a spell again. There is the mention of those street magicians Dany sees using tricks before but now they are able to do the real deal, and the rising of Beric. Thoros just said a prayer, one that he had said countless times before as just a prayer but this time it worked out to be so much more. So it is not as if things aren't working like that already in GRRM's world. But Mel in her typically myopic view doesn't think she had any real effect and so she hasn't turned to it now that she has other things she can access at the Wall.

But Thoros keeps performing that ability over and over again. He uses it on Beric six times. Why doesn't Mel even try to do that again, if she in fact did it? Even if she did it accidentally, she now "knows" that it works; unless of course she just foresaw the deaths and pretended to cause them.

Considering that the deaths make sense without magic, the fact that Mel admits herself that much of what she has done is based around illusions and tricks, and the fact that Mel faking her killing of those kings benefits Mel and matches her general pattern of behavior, it seems very highly unlikely that her magic actually caused or assisted the deaths, I would argue.

[butterbumps!]

I'm not sure it makes sense to discuss it because I think it will never be addressed and it is just a way for us to fill time between books if we are being totally honest.

However, as to why she doesn't do it again: Because I don't think she's at all aware of the extent of her powers, I think it is totally possible she did a ritual she learned as a priestess, that she believed to be smoke and mirrors but because of rising magic is actually working as a spell again. There is the mention of those street magicians Dany sees using tricks before but now they are able to do the real deal, and the rising of Beric. Thoros just said a prayer, one that he had said countless times before as just a prayer but this time it worked out to be so much more. So it is not as if things aren't working like that already in GRRM's world. But Mel in her typically myopic view doesn't think she had any real effect and so she hasn't turned to it now that she has other things she can access at the Wall.

Let me make sure I'm following correctly. Mel set up the leech burning with the understanding that it was a cheap trick- that she herself didn't think it would actually have any effect on anything. Yet, unbeknownst to her, the leeches actually cemented the deaths of those kings. Fast forward to DwD, where we see Mel incredibly desperate to win Jon to her side by proving she has powers of foresight. She decides not to use the leeches to bring her visions to fruition because she doesn't think they actually work, so she doesn't tap into this resource that because she doesn't actually know she has those powers.

So now, how do you explain how the grey girl and the Weeper's killings occurred without the use of leeches? Because, in my view, if it is shown that the visions happen regardless of the presence of leeches- and this is proven, unquestionably- it makes zero logical sense to me to suggest that the presence of a variable like the leeches are anything other than placebos.

[Sasha Steelsong]

We know that using smoke and mirrors, illusions, shrouds etc. are typical of Mel's modus operandi, but I don't recall seeing her "curse" people on any other occasion, or using that type of magic. The closest she gets is the shadow baby, and she has to be smuggled right to Storm's End for that to work.

Yes, magic exists, and yes, it could be involved, but neither the deaths themselves or Mel's usual use of magic suggests that it is likely to have been involved here.

The only reason Mel had to be brought within Storm's End to do what she did is because the castle itself has magical protection in the walls (which she mentions to Davos) so she had to get through that before she could loose the shadowbaby. It had NOTHING to do with the reach of her powers but with the magic in the castle itself. She didn't need to be anywhere near Renly to kill him with one. The only reason she hasn't made more is because she said it was draining Stannis' lifeforce and another might kill him.

And you're welcome to believe that. I'm just not going as far in discounting magic in this case, as it is also the ONLY time Mel seems to have been 100% accurate.

But Thoros keeps performing that ability over and over again. He uses it on Beric six times. Why doesn't Mel even try to do that again, if she in fact did it? Even if she did it accidentally, she now "knows" that it works; unless of course she just foresaw the deaths and pretended to cause them.

Considering that the deaths make sense without magic, the fact that Mel admits herself that much of what she has done is based around illusions and tricks, and the fact that Mel faking her killing of those kings benefits Mel, it seems very highly unlikely that her magic actually caused or assisted the deaths, I would argue.

Because like I have said several times, I don't believe that she is aware of any effect the leaches had or that her smoke and mirrors might turn out to be more than what she thought they were. I don't think she has any idea of her full powers or how they really work when real magic is out and about, because there has been no real magic to work with before. I think Mel is a lot older than she appears, but not so old that she was around the last time people had real magic to work with. Thoros may have used the ability over and over again when he saw it worked, but the first time he had no expectation of that. If Beric had stayed dead for a while such that Thoros went off (since he wasn't expecting it to actually make Beric rise) and then Beric had woken up with Thoros gone, there is no guarentee Thoros would have done it over and over as he also would not have been aware that what he did was more than a prayer.

[Sasha Steelsong]

Let me make sure I'm following correctly. Mel set up the leech burning with the understanding that it was a cheap trick- that she herself didn't think it would actually have any effect on anything. Yet, unbeknownst to her, the leeches actually cemented the deaths of those kings. Fast forward to DwD, where we see Mel incredibly desperate to win Jon to her side by proving she has powers of foresight. She decides not to use the leeches to bring her visions to fruition because she doesn't think they actually work, so she doesn't tap into this resource that because she doesn't actually know she has those powers.

So now, how do you explain how the grey girl and the Weeper's killings occurred without the use of leeches? Because, in my view, if it is shown that the visions happen regardless of the presence of leeches- and this is proven, unquestionably- it makes zero logical sense to me to suggest that the presence of a variable like the leeches are anything other than placebos.

Very easily. She does get gimpses of the future in her fires but they are not set (she herself says this when talking to Jon and not seeing the point of seeing the future if she could not change it) and she doesn't always interpret them correctly. For example she did see the girl on the horse, but until Karstark showed up she was pitching that girl as Arya. If she could really see the girl, she was either lying to John or not getting the full picture, only what she needed. The difference between those visions and the death of the kings is that the leaches made the potential deaths certain. Or can you think of a time without leaches where she was 100% right?

[ab aeterno]

The only reason Mel had to be brought within Storm's End to do what she did is because the castle itself has magical protection in the walls (which she mentions to Davos) so she had to get through that before she could loose the shadowbaby. It had NOTHING to do with the reach of her powers but with the magic in the castle itself. She didn't need to be anywhere near Renly to kill him with one. The only reason she hasn't made more is because she said it was draining Stannis' lifeforce and another might kill him.

And you're welcome to believe that. I'm just not going as far in discounting magic in this case, as it is also the ONLY time Mel seems to have been 100% accurate.

It helps that there might not be three more predictable deaths in the entire series, other than Viserys... Also, the whole Storm's End magic thing comes down entirely to what Mel says, and no-one else corroborates this. She has never even been to Storm's End before.

Because like I have said several times, I don't believe that she is aware of any effect the leaches had or that her smoke and mirrors might turn out to be more than what she thought they were. I don't think she has any idea of her full powers or how they really work when real magic is out and about, because there has been no real magic to work with before. I think Mel is a lot older than she appears, but not so old that she was around the last time people had real magic to work with. Thoros may have used the ability over and over again when he saw it worked, but the first time he had no expectation of that. If Beric had stayed dead for a while such that Thoros went off (since he wasn't expecting it to actually make Beric rise) and then Beric had woken up with Thoros gone, there is no guarentee Thoros would have done it over and over as he also would not have been aware that what he did was more than a prayer.

But she doesn't even seem to believe in those powers after the deaths that she predicted... This sounds awfully Bedknobs and Broomsticks-like to me. Again, not discounting magic entirely, just saying that all available evidence seems to suggest that it is unlikely, in my opinion.

[kissdbyfire]

Very easily. She does get gimpses of the future in her fires but they are not set (she herself says this when talking to Jon and not seeing the point of seeing the future if she could not change it) and she doesn't always interpret them correctly. For example she did see the girl on the horse, but until Karstark showed up she was pitching that girl as Arya. If she could really see the girl, she was either lying to John or not getting the full picture, only what she needed. The difference between those visions and the death of the kings is that the leaches made the potential deaths certain. Or can you think of a time without leaches where she was 100% right?

Regarding Alys Karstark, I think Mel saw a grey girl on a dying horse and simply inferred it was Arya, as we can see during her chat with Rattleshirt/Mance in Dance.

ADwD, Melisandre

“The girl,” she said. “A girl in grey on a dying horse. Jon Snow’s sister.” Who else could it be? She was racing to him for protection, that much Melisandre had seen clearly. “I have seen her in my flames, but only once. We must win the lord commander’s trust, and the only way to do that is to save her.”

[butterbumps!]

Very easily. She does get gimpses of the future in her fires but they are not set (she herself says this when talking to Jon and not seeing the point of seeing the future if she could not change it) and she doesn't always interpret them correctly. For example she did see the girl on the horse, but until Karstark showed up she was pitching that girl as Arya. If she could really see the girl, she was either lying to John or not getting the full picture, only what she needed. The difference between those visions and the death of the kings is that the leaches made the potential deaths certain. Or can you think of a time without leaches where she was 100% right?

Yes. The Weeper-slaughtered men and the girl on a dying horse is when she was 100% right with out leeches. She saw a girl on a dying horse. She "sold" the vision to Jon under the assumption that it was Arya, but indeed, a girl did show up on a dying horse fleeing a marriage, precisely as described in her vision. And those rangers came back without eyes, precisely how she saw them in her vision. It strains credulity to think that Mel was "wrong" about the dying horse girl, and that had some leeches been burned it would have been Arya there. Again, Mel wasn't wrong about these vision- they did come to fruition. She simply mistook the "who" based on the expectations she imposed in the case of Alys.

And yes, I do think that there is variability in the script of prophesy in Westeros. I think that there is potential to change the script (consider how Tyrion changed Aegon's course). But I think it's really pushing it to maintain the position that leeches (leeches, of all goddam things) have the power to cement one course or another. If anything, I think there's more indication to suggest that doing nothing enables these forecasted visions to manifest.

[Dr. Pepper]

I think it's important to note that Mel isn't the one who tosses the leeches in the fire. It's Stannis who does so. This is soon after Stannis tells Davos how he saw visions in the flames (visions that seem to illustrate the Night's Watch). If it's to be argued that bloody leeches tossed on a fire created a curse that drove the free will of dozens of people in order to assassinate three kings, then it should be acknowledged that, based on who threw the leeches into the fire, it's Stannis' magic, not Mel's. The only thing Mel actually did was pull some powder from her sleeves and toss it onto the coals, which made them dance a bit. But as we know from her chapter in Dance, these powders in her sleeves are things she herself identifies as her smoke and mirrors....or in other words, her magician's tricks.

ETA: There's a good thread that pulls out things characters have said or thought that later turn out to happen. Unlikely, but tue! Stannis saying the names of three kings is pretty similar to Sansa wishing that someone noble would take off Janos Slynt's head. It later happens. Doesn't mean that Sansa put a curse on Janos and Jon that caused it to happen.

[The Lord's Kiss]

I always thought that Melisandre saw the events taking place in her flames and then got Stannis to do the leech ritual so that he would believe her more when they actually unfolded. We know the steps that it took in order for Robb to be assassinated, and Littlefinger's motivations rang true enough to coincide with the Tyrells to want Joffrey dead. With Balon, Euron arriving in Pyke the very next day and the Ghost of High Heart's dream about a "man with no face," leads us to believe it was a Faceless Man who did the deed. I doubt very much that sprinkling some fat bloody leeches on the fire and saying their names would have changed any of this, but it does really foreshadow Robb's death early on in the book.

[Sasha Steelsong]

And yes, I do think that there is variability in the script of prophesy in Westeros. I think that there is potential to change the script (consider how Tyrion changed Aegon's course). But I think it's really pushing it to maintain the position that leeches (leeches, of all goddam things) have the power to cement one course or another. If anything, I think there's more indication to suggest that doing nothing enables these forecasted visions to manifest.

Not leaches necessarily, but the blood sacrifice via the leaches, sure, as blood magic does seem to have power in this world. I never said the leeches themselves were the key, and frankly since we are now adressing it specifically always thought they were just the vessels for the blood.

And to state again since it seems necessary...I don't think the leeches in anyway were the principle cause in the three kings' deaths. All I am saying is that the possibility exists (not that it even happened just that it was possible) that the blood magic sealed the deal given how much had to go right for all three kings to die. Thus I cannot say with 100% certainty that they did not have an impact.

[Black Wolf Smith]

I did not read all 6 pages of this, so if someone eles already said this, sorry.

The Ghost of High Heart also prophecy the deaths of the kings. I think it is more likely that Mel had already seen that they died in the fires, and then staged the leeches to make it seem like she caused them to happen as oposed to seeing them happen.