Did Melisandre/The Lord of Light actually cause Robb, Joff, and Balon to die?

[butterbumps!]

Not leaches necessarily, but the blood sacrifice via the leaches, sure, as blood magic does seem to have power in this world. I never said the leeches themselves were the key, and frankly since we are now adressing it specifically always thought they were just the vessels for the blood.

And to state again since it seems necessary...I don't think the leeches in anyway were the principle cause in the three kings' deaths. All I am saying is that the possibility exists (not that it even happened just that it was possible) that the blood magic sealed the deal given how much had to go right for all three kings to die. Thus I cannot say with 100% certainty that they did not have an impact.

Yes, I was addressing the leeches as a vessel for blood, and my thoughts about the power of kingsblood as it pertains to actually producing magical effects are no more charitable.

Perhaps I'm misunderstanding something. How do deaths "become sealed"? What does this really mean? Are you thinking that Walder could have have had a change of heart, but by burning the leeches it prevented this? That a sunny day in Pyke would have upset the conditions of Balon's murder, so by "sealing" his fate it enabled all of the conditions to come to fruition?

I don't feel like looking up the passage now, but I remember that somewhere in aCoK, Mel talks about a multitude of futures/ shadows- something I took as akin to the butterfly effect or alternate universes through time or something like that. So are you saying that by burning blood, Mel was able to choose which "space and time script" to iterate through?

If we're going to go down the "choose/ seal" your own adventure notion of the leech burning, perhaps we should explore a critical facet that has not had any discussion on this thread: Renly's death. It's rich that Mel got "4 out of 4," the process of which was kicked off by the death of Renly, which she, personally, took care of (I lol about "predicting" someone's death when you're the one planning to kill him, btw). And let's look at the ramifications of Renly's death, shall we? Without this, Robb and Joff would have had a very different path. One might say that Renly's death helped catalyze a whole series of events that certainly changed the tide of this war.

By killing Renly, Melisandre set into motion a series of events that probably would not have otherwise happened (Balon was probably always going to bite the dust- just a matter of time). So now, I ask you, why put one iota of weight on the possibility that blood burning "sealed" this course, when we have tangible and clear knowledge of Mel's direct participation in setting up a string of events that enabled the conditions for the deaths of at least 2 other kings? Was it the leeches, or perhaps, the fact that Mel birthed a shadow baby that brought down a man, who, if successful, would have changed the course of this war?

So yes, I think that there is a kind of "choose your own adventure" aspect to the way these prophesies can work, such that doing nothing results in 1 path, while another action will result in a different course. Mel certainly "sealed" the fates of these kings (at least 3 of them) by killing Renly, but not for one second do I believe she's some "Seventh Seal" god with the power to play destiny chess via blooded leeches with the people of this universe. She probably saw two (or more) iterations of the future in her fire (which is something we know happens), and chose the sequence that had the best outcome for Stannis-- which was brought forth by killing Renly.

[Leto]

It's obviously real. leach-burning will cause death. Now this is what will happen in the north

1. Roose will be in the leach-tub in Winterfell

2. Winterfell gets attacked

3. the tub and consequently Roose and the leaches will catch fire

4. Roose curses the attackers

5. Said cursed attackers will die as the leaches burn

6. Roose now sports a 'hound look' and is still lord of Winterfell

Anything else seems preposterous!

[Sasha Steelsong]

Yes, I was addressing the leeches as a vessel for blood, and my thoughts about the power of kingsblood as it pertains to actually producing magical effects are no more charitable.

Perhaps I'm misunderstanding something. How do deaths "become sealed"? What does this really mean? Are you thinking that Walder could have have had a change of heart, but by burning the leeches it prevented this? That a sunny day in Pyke would have upset the conditions of Balon's murder, so by "sealing" his fate it enabled all of the conditions to come to fruition?

I don't feel like looking up the passage now, but I remember that somewhere in aCoK, Mel talks about a multitude of futures/ shadows- something I took as akin to the butterfly effect or alternate universes through time or something like that. So are you saying that by burning blood, Mel was able to choose which "space and time script" to iterate through?

If we're going to go down the "choose/ seal" your own adventure notion of the leech burning, perhaps we should explore a critical facet that has not had any discussion on this thread: Renly's death. It's rich that Mel got "4 out of 4," the process of which was kicked off by the death of Renly, which she, personally, took care of (I lol about "predicting" someone's death when you're the one planning to kill him, btw). And let's look at the ramifications of Renly's death, shall we? Without this, Robb and Joff would have had a very different path. One might say that Renly's death helped catalyze a whole series of events that certainly changed the tide of this war.

By killing Renly, Melisandre set into motion a series of events that probably would not have otherwise happened (Balon was probably always going to bite the dust- just a matter of time). So now, I ask you, why put one iota of weight on the possibility that blood burning "sealed" this course, when we have tangible and clear knowledge of Mel's direct participation in setting up a string of events that enabled the conditions for the deaths of at least 2 other kings? Was it the leeches, or perhaps, the fact that Mel birthed a shadow baby that brought down a man, who, if successful, would have changed the course of this war?

So yes, I think that there is a kind of "choose your own adventure" aspect to the way these prophesies can work, such that doing nothing results in 1 path, while another action will result in a different course. Mel certainly "sealed" the fates of these kings (at least 3 of them) by killing Renly, but not for one second do I believe she's some "Seventh Seal" god with the power to play destiny chess via blooded leeches with the people of this universe. She probably saw two (or more) iterations of the future in her fire (which is something we know happens), and chose the sequence that had the best outcome for Stannis-- which was brought forth by killing Renly.

Sigh. Frankly I don't know why I'm responding to this on a certain level because I do not believe that Mel was the main actor in the deaths of the kings. All I have ever said was that I was not 100% certain (and your arguments will not make it 100%) that Mel's magic didn't have an effect, because the nature of magic right now is so unknown and changing. That there is a possibility that it was more than just smoke and mirrors. This is a far cry from putting forward the theory that the leaches were somehow necessary, but I keep feeling like people are responding to me as if I'm saying her actions and the leaches were necessary. Because what you are asking for is a step by step of how it worked, when I'm not arguing that it did only that the possibility exists. But since you seem to want it:

First off I don't think kings' blood means squat, nor did I say that kings blood meant anything. I think the whole "Kings' Blood" thing is a giant game of telephone through the ages and that the real meaning got lost. Frankly I think it came out as follows, back when magic was strong, those with strong magic became kings. Thus kings for a long time were people with magic, over time it becomes assumed and morphed into "kings' blood" is magically powerful (sort of like how "virgin" used to mean only unmarried woman and now it means sexually innocent). While it may have been true back in the day, not because being a king made you magic but because those with magic became kings, as magic left the phrase and idea lingered. So now you have people saying kings blood is magical just because they are king.

That is different however from saying that blood sacrifice has no power. I think blood magic does work in this world, I just think for the most part any human blood will do but blood from humans with magical gifts will work better than from those without (for example burning the Florant hand that came before Davos seemed to get them perfect weather going north - and yes I do think the fact that they had no storms and great wind was a bit of a magical assist - so clearly non-kings blood works for something).

As for what I mean by "sealed" you generally have the idea, that it set whatever was seen to play out in stone, but I think your actual examples are not how it would have gone. Like for instance I don't think anything could have changed Walder's heart but Olivar could have escaped and gotten to Robb, the maester at the Twins could have grabbed the wrong raven and a letter indended for Tywin at Harranhal or KL makes its way to Riverrun, some of the tyrell plotting could have been overheard, the cup could have been knocked from Joffrey's hand before he took a drink, a gust of wind in a storm could have blown the faceless man off the bridge before balon even got there. It would be so easy for a random action to disrupt any one of the deaths even if the other two played out.

And as for "why put one iota of weight on the possibility that blood burning "sealed" this course, when we have tangible and clear knowledge of Mel's direct participation in setting up a string of events that enabled the conditions for the deaths of at least 2 other kings?". Because this is a world where magic is sponantously happening and waking up, where people are performing feats even they themselves are unaware they can do, thus it seems silly to ignore the possibilty that somone who we know can use magic might have had a greater effect than she realised. I don't disagree that Mel sent in motion a lot by killing Renly, but the outcomes of all four kings dead were not guarenteed. And all I am saying is that it is possible that the blood magic helped shift likely to certain. Not saying it did, just saying it is possible and we have no way of knowing for certain.

[Cersei of the Kingsguard]

So, what I think GRRM has done is create a world in which magic is certainly real and people have constructed myths and religions around their magic, but no gods are actually real.

hmm this .. this is definitely cool i rly hope this is true , im still blaming stannis and his leeches for Robbs death so ...

[Leif]

Maybe. It's clear that certain gods in ASOIAF have a bigger presence than others. Though, most of those deaths were planned before the leech burning, so it makes it seem less likely that Mel and R'hllor had a big impact - since it was gonna happen either way, naturally.

There's gotta be some truth to it. If not, Thoros is the next best natural wizard since Gandalf, and he doesn't even know it.

[joluoto]

Mel saw their deaths in her fires, then claimed she could cause them, because she already knew they would happen.