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'The Winds Of Winter' Death Predictions

Queen of Whores

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Ramsay - I predict Ramsay murders the Bravosi Banker and the Bank goes to the Faceless Man and puts out a contract on Bolton's Bastard. And who do they send? Our little girl Arya. What sweet irony to have the girl he pretended to marry ultimately be his end

Bowen Marsh - Via Ghost.......via Jon

Lady Stoneheart - I predict somehow, Sansa is reunited with Undead Cat, but only after just suffering a mortal wound. Cat will use the breath of life to save Sansa, sacrificing her own life

Victarian Greyjoy - Come on, there's no WAY blowing that horn is going to work out for this guy. All it's going to do is piss those dragons off. He wants their attention? He's about to get ALL of it

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  • 3 weeks later...

Brienne- Will die saving Jamie and Pate from Lady Stoneheart. Also remember she currently has a broken arm, three broken ribs, and half her face chewed off.

Littlefinger- Sansa kills him to save Sweet Robert and becomes the power in the Vale.

Lancel Lannister- Killed by Robert Strong

The Hound/Robert Strong- They die killing each other..... though The Hound lives longer. This may not happen till the last book though.

Tommen- Tommen is in a very bad place and is way to trusting. I think Cersie will watch all of her children die before she does herself, which means one needs to die in this book. Myrcella will make it to book 7.

Melisandre- Will die trying to fight the Others at the wall but her death will actually let them through.

Barriston Selmy- Will die saving Meereen and Dany's rule.

Victorian- Those Dragons maybe attracted to the Horn, but we do not know if they can be controlled. He is Dragon feed in my opinion

Margaery- Cersie will survive her trail thanks to Robert Strong, but Queen Margaery's head will roll.

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I think one of the Reed children will die, esp. if the Jojenpaste theory is true (eh, I buy it). I could also see Meera's death making Bran go through an angry tree spirit phase or something.

Mace Tyrell is probably going to kick the bucket so we can see more leadership under this mysterious Willas. Same reason for Doran Martell. Clearing the old generation!

A lot of people have been saying Margaery, but I personally think her story arc is a lot more promising if she stays. We've hardly ever seen any action from her (well, not directly, just being hated on by Cersei and mentioned by Sansa), and with her being pumped as being Olenna's protege, I think she has a lot more potential.

One of the Sand Snakes being assassinated would be spicy.

Myrcella (noo!) or Tommen (meh) or both. They're kind of living on borrowed time at this point, honestly.

In the North, I don't know who, but someone important's dying. Val? Shireen, almost definitely. Selyse, probably. Stannis and Jon, I think not so much.

About the whole Starks/Baratheons and dead direwolf/stag antler connection someone mentioned earlier, so true! They seem to die/frolic in pairs: Ned/Robert roll out together, Arya/Gendry travel together, Renly/Robb lose the war of five kings, and now Jon and Stannis are both tied up by Mel's weird red magic obsession. I can buy that.

I also think that Jaime and Brienne (esp her) have a lot more character arc to complete before going to rest. Including taking care of Cersei. Tyrion and Arya are kind of in the middle of hold-your-breath storylines now, so I say plot armor for them (yay!) Sadly, Barristan (sniffle) has probably been his benevolent heroic noble self for too long, and his use plot-wise is kind of expiring, so I think he's going to croak. Hopefully Hizdar and Daario and stuff goes too. And yeah, JonCon doesn't stand a chance. He's going to die with a half-mad dreamy smile while he thinks of Rhaegar, etc. I think Aegon may or may not be a one-book wonder, so we'll see.

I can see GRRM killing all three of the dragons, returning the world to its previous wyrm-free state.

I can totally see this. Kind of an LoTR parallel, with the whole elves sailing back across the shining sea thing. Or here, the world progressing along its quasi-medieval track without dragons. My only problem with this theory is that Dany would have to remain sterile, and not magically bear lots of living human children with Jon. I think Targaryens represent the last of magic in Westeros (none of the other houses' sigils involve mythical creatures...except the ironborn, but whatever) besides the Others and Children of the Forest. Since it's a "bittersweet" ending, I can't imagine the Others not being defeated. And no way the Children are going to break out the champagne with the humans. They're going to retreat far away and not come out, I'd imagine. So Targaryens without dragons seems doubtful, albeit possible.

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I think...

Ser Barristan - His death will be the final catalyst that gets Dany moving (with all haste) to the 7 Kingdoms.


Xaro Xhoan Daxos - I suspect a dragpm will be feasting on him

Ramsey Bolton

*possibly* Roose, Stannis wont keep him alive should he win, the North wont keep him alive if Rickon is returned to Winterfell in triumph.

"Black" Walder Frey

Edwyn Frey (being 1st in line of succession)

Emmon Frey & Genna Lannister


I think also Cersei is likely to stay alive, untill Tyrion lands back in the 7 Kingdoms. Same for Jaime.

Mace wont die, Varys will want his imcompetence to remain in court for now.

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Part of me feels like Cercei will be cast out and end up in a whorehouse somehow by the end.

In what will be the most awesome 2 second duel ever. I suspect GRRM has been cackling at this set up for years, cold open, "Oh shit this was a bad idea" Lancel thought as the steel bludgeoned through it skull.

Im hoping Sandor will come back and kill his Brother... for good this time

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My predictions are: (and shame on me if they are false)


- Wyman Manderly - stepping on thin ice, trying to survive Roose and Stannis. A mistep will cause his death

- Victarion Greyjoy - Dany will not just let him take her to the Isles and do everything he wants. Plus, Euron is on the game

- Cersei Lannister - will survive the trial then die later. Even the Lannisters think she is a pain, and Tyrion will be back to Westeros in TWoW. If he can kill Dad, he can also kill her.

- Sandor Clegane (and now it's for real) - Anything related to Robert Strong or Arya or Sansa Stark

- Bowen Marsh and Othell Yarwick - Truly fucked by wildlings or Jon Snow when he awakes.

- Jon Connington - Battling his way northward

- Hizdahr Zo Lorak - Roasted, then eaten by a dragon

- Brown Ben Plumm - Slashed by Tyrion

- Obara Sand - Messing up some Doran's plan

- Asha Greyjoy - the winter, or Roose, or Stannis

LF and Varys will die in the last book.

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Marked for death?

Not Theon - seeing as how it seemed as though he was going to get burned, I think it looks a bit too obvious.

Reeds - Jojen could live for the reason I just gave, but I still see them as being on the way out.

Cersei - It's possible, but not after she's done a bit more damage to her children's grasp on the throne.

Wyman Manderly - Might be killed by Stannis even after helping him at Winterfell. It's possible.

Hizdahr - Surely. I can't see him surviving much longer.

Haven't considered many others, but there won 't be more than 3 major deaths in TWoW I don't think.

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Yea! My first post!

First of all, I think this is an awesome topic. I prefer to take a different approach though. When looking at all the characters in all the books there is a consistent theme of the heroic and strong characters getting axed while the weak, misfits, outcasts and the shrewd endure. THis is not a coincidence and is clearly intentional by Martin. Ned Stark, Robert Baratheon, Khal Drogo and Tywin Lannister were all pillars of strength. All are dead, and in most cases their deaths were in humiliating fashion. You can add Oberyn Martell, Commander Mormont and Robb Stark to that list also. Meanwhile the misfits and outcasts survive such as Tyrion the Imp, Brienne the man-woman, Brandon Stark the cripple and Sam Tarly the coward. And do you really think that there is a character in all of the books who can out manipulate Varys or Littlefinger to take one of them down? Hardly. If Martin wants to kill them off it will have to be from something accidental like slipping on a rock or a really bad hemorrhoid.

The other part of my theory is that the truly evil major characters fall under the category of the "shrewd" which means they endure but with a slight twist: they survive long enough to be horribly punished. This applied to Gregor Clegane, I think it will also apply to Walder Frey, Roose/Ramsay Bolton and Euron GreyJoy.

So with that analysis, who does that leave us to axe off in the next book? Here's who I'm thinking gets it

- Aegon: sorry kid, you're too noble and perfect. It would be very much just like Martin to provide us with this character trained to be perfect from birth and then kill him off in humiliating fashion.

- Sansa Stark: I am starting to like her a lot, but she's got her father's stupid sense of honor. It will get her killed in tragic fashion.

- Arianne Martell : We will learn more about her, come to like her a lot and she will die.

- Tommen Baratheon: He's too freakin cute. Ser Pounce? Myrcella's disigurement keeps her around.

- Brynden Blackfish Tully: Old, noble, honorable, strong. He's wily enough to escape but his sense of honor will drag him into another battle which will kill him.

My theory has some difficulty with characters who cross the boundaries though. The Lannister twins and Theon Greyjoy are among them. Jamie's loss of his hand now places him in the misfit category, thus ensuring his survival. Cersei's walk of shame puts her in the outcast group. However, they both have high crimes on their hands and will be punished. Jamie and Cersei probably make it to the last book and should they die, it will be together. That is how they came into the world.

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I'd actually written most of an essay about which POVs might die to submit to a different website, putting odds on the potential for each living POV to die, but never got around to submitting it. I'll just put the meat of it here.

Most of it is based around who might perish in the first half of TWOW, as GRRM has stated he intends to cut down on the number of POVs so he can start re-unifying the story threads and clear up some of the clutter. As this is more analysis than opinion or speculation, the further into the story we're talking about the less meaningful it becomes, since we don't know the details of the events to come. Really, trying to guess at who might die in the second half of TWoW is more guesswork than educated speculation, since with two major battles on the verge of breaking out, the first half is likely to pack quite a punch.

There is one specific mechanical element that can help us eliminate some names from our list immediately—geography. There are certain locations we can be quite confident will be important early in TWOW. Some of these locations have multiple POVs to help push the stories along, but some do not. The following are the important locations sporting just one lonely POV at the beginning of TWOW.

King’s Landing
- For the first time since the opening chapters of AGOT
Kings Landing is surprisingly devoid of POV characters. Although one of the more accessible locations to travel to, Cersei Lannister appears to be our only set of eyes on the Westerosi Capital as the book begins. Cersei may be unlikely to survive by the end of ADOS, but she also seems unlikely to perish early in TWOW, if only to keep us apprised of the activities in King’s Landing.

The Vale of Arryn
- The current whereabouts of the oldest of the lost trueborn Stark children, Sansa figures to be as safe as anyone can be in the company of Littlefinger. The story here is largely focused on Sansa, Baelish, the succession of Lordship over the Eeyrie, and a potential union with Winterfell. While it's somewhat unclear what significance this thread has in the greater narrative, it is clear there is something important happening. The Vale is also a possible landing spot for everyone's favorite non-POV badass, the Blackfish. Aside from spending the majority of adulthood in the Vale, he should be familiar with Littlefinger thanks to their time together at Riverrun and one of the few people who could immediately recognize Sansa due to her resemblance to Catelyn.

- Like her older sister, Arya Stark remains in a place where the reader's perspective is her's and her's alone. Also similarly to the Vale, the role of Braavos remains somewhat unclear, and it may be that Arya's time here won't last very long. But it is where she will begin the story and there's little narrative motivation for her to meet an untimely end in such a remote location. She might even be able to provide some interesting details regarding the Iron Bank.

North of the Wall
- Bran's tutelage under Bloodraven is just beginning, and although he may not be particularly mobile, his perspective has become quite unique. He can see into the past and possibly even communicate with other characters over great distances. He also can provide further information on the Children of the Forest and the Others.

- The intrigue in Oldtown had just begun to unfurl in AFFC
and it remains unclear what role the Citadel and the Maesters have yet to play. With a glass candle burning and both a Faceless Man and a Sand Snake presumably on the loose, it's safe to say something important is happening here, and it'll be up to our own shy little Slayer, Samwell Tarly, to provide us with the gory details.

So the characters who figure to begin TWOW in a location of importance and as the lone POV characters in the vicinity are Cersi Lannister, Sansa Stark, Arya Stark, Bran Stark, and Samwell Tarly. We can assume that the odds that any of them die quickly in TWOW is quite low.

Now let's go through each remaining character and examine what impact their death might have on the story, and put odds on their chances of survival through the first half of TWOW. I’ve grouped them by presumed locale, so the characters providing points of view on the same events can be discussed together. We’ll start with the group at Slaver’s Bay, move on to the Stormlands, then the North, the Wall, the Riverlands, Dorne, the Iron Islands, and then full circle back to Essos in the Dothraki Sea.

Slaver’s Bay

A quick point about Slaver's Bay: This is the only current locale with at least three POV characters. There's a pretty strong chance someone here will perish quickly.

  • Tyrion Lannister - Let's be frank--no one wants Tyrion to die. Of course, Martin might see this as a great reason to kill him off, and in truth, his long term role in the remaining story is unclear. In fact, this has always been a unique characteristic of Tyrion, in that he’s survived this long in spite of a lack of a clear role to play. He’s constantly wriggling his way into important positions and out of dangerous situations, despite having none inherently tied to his character such as other surviving early POVs like Jon, Dany, and Bran have. He has no questions about parentage and travels with no mythical beasts to keep him safe, and he really only got pulled into things because Littlefinger told a little fib while Tyrion was away visitng the Wall. And now he finds himself halfway across the world, exiled, captured, and enslaved, sitting outside the gates of Meereen, watching the Pale Mare take lives and preparing for yet another battle he’d probably rather be as far away from as possible.

One thing Tyrion does have going for him is the prophecy of the “Valonqar.” Even if it turns out that Jaime, and not Tyrion, is the Valonqar, as many readers have guessed, killing Tyrion before that prophecy is fulfilled (or at least near to being fulfilled) would ruin the ambiguity, and that scores him some big points for the moment.

Odds of survival:

  • Victarion Greyjoy - Victarion has brought his captured fleet of ships manned by Ironborn reavers to the shores of Slaver's Bay and is poised to join the action in support of Team Dany. He's also brought a certain Red Priest, and a powerful horn (supposedly) capable of controlling dragons.

Victarion has always seemed more soldier than schemer. If his purpose was to deliver Moqorro or simply strengthen Euron's position, he becomes largely unnecessary. Combined with a lack of geographical necessity, he is uniquely vulnerable.

Odds of survival:

  • Barristan Selmy - Most of what applies to Victarion also applies to Selmy. He's not a major player in the game and he doesn't have a clear narrative purpose moving forward. He’s far more likable than Victarion, and has slightly deeper threads within the story, but it could be quite fitting for him to die in the Battle for Meereen.

Odds of Survival:

The Stormlands

  • Jon Connington - For the moment, Connington is our eyes and ears on the ground in the Stormlands, but Arianne Martell is also poised to join him before too long. Connington has contracted Greyscale, and is primed to fight with reckless abandon to do all he can for Young Griff. Though the former Lord of Griffin’s Roost clearly feels he has a purpose, it would be far from out of place to see him killed off before he is able to fulfill said purpose, and he will only be very briefly protected geographically.

Odds of Survival:

  • Arianne Martell - Upon her arrival in the Stormlands, there will be a redundancy of POVs on the same side of a battle. And even worse, neither one has an obvious role in the coming events, a background that needs explaining, or a prophecy providing protection. Much of what was said about Jon Connington applies to Arianne as well. However, she gets a slight nod here as she is probably more cunning than Connington, is less likely to engage in open battle, has more to lose and is thus less likely to engage in reckless behavior, and has not contracted a fatal illness.

Odds of Survival:

The North

  • Theon Greyjoy – Theon has been tortured, castrated, and completely transformed from the boy who witnessed Gared lose his head to the greatsword Ice so many years ago. He’s the prisoner of a ragged and exhausted army that’s preparing for battle with none other than his former captor—Ramsay Bolton, and although Stannis may not have a taste for torture, he (or rather his followers) do have a taste for human sacrifice.

At the same time, Theon has been hearing Bran speak to him through the Weirwoods, set up a redemption arc by rescuing Jeyne Poole, is one of the few people who knows for certain that Bran and Rickon are still alive, and his survival could ultimately undermine Euron's hold on the Seastone Chair. He actually has a lot going for him in terms of mechanical narrative protection, even if his situation within the plot appears dire.

Odds of Survival:

  • Asha Greyjoy - Although she is physically in better condition than Theon, Asha is less directly tied to the narrative at this point. She witnessed and failed at the Kingsmoot, fled to the North, and recognized Theon (or rather, Theon recognized her, thus betraying his own identity to Stannis's forces). Now she and Theon are primed to give us redundant perspectives on the upcoming Battle for Winterfell. There’s nothing obvious that she has left to do, which isn’t necessarily a death warrant, but leaves her in a much more vulnerable position than her disfigured brother from a mechanical perspective. And at the same time, her situation in the story isn't exactly peachy. She, too, is a prisoner of Stannis's army as well, a group which has repeatedly expressed a desire to see her sacrificed to their God, and a force which is about to engage in open conflict in harsh environmental conditions.

Odds of Survival:

The Wall

  • Jon Snow - Although he may already be dead, there are still a plethora threads to unravel around Jon's storyline that have been open questions since the very beginning. Although Martin has a knack for killing off important characters, few have as much narrative importance as Jon does. His parentage is one of the cruxes of the entire drama, he’s been our window to the Wall and beyond, he has been legitimized and named heir by Robb Stark prior to the Red Wedding, and especially if Rhaegar Targaryen is in fact his father, he clearly has a large role yet to play. At this point, assuming he survives Bowen Marsh's mutiny, he would be be about as well protected as a character can get in ASoIaF.

Odds of Survival:

  • Melisandre - With only one POV chapter thus far, it's unclear how prominent a role Melisandre's perspective might yet play. If Jon Snow is out of commission for a while or dead, she could be quite crucial as our watcher on the Wall, although a total blackout of information from the Wall could be a nice suspense builder. If Jon Snow is alive and well 100 pages in, or she has to make some sort of sacrifice to keep him alive, her situation could become much more precarious.

Odds of Survival:

The Riverlands

  • Jaime Lannister – The Kingslayer is about to get the surprise of his life in a confrontation with Lady Stoneheart, and that may not be a good thing for the prospects of his longevity. However, many suspect it is ultimately he who fulfills the prophecy of the Valonqar and kills Cersei, so he could well have a prophecy protecting him. If it turns out Tyrion is in fact the Valonqar, as Cersi suspects, letting Jaime die might be less problematic than in the reverse scenario, but once again the ambiguity of the prophecy would be spoiled. There would also be a fine line between unsatisfying and unsettling if GRRM had him killed off by the increasingly corrupt BwB just as his redemption arc was reaching it's peak.

Odds of Survival:

  • Brienne of Tarth - Killing off Brienne at this stage would also seem a bit odd, but she’s more vulnerable than Jaime. She's not protected by a prophecy and doesn't have a clear purpose with all of the Stark children now well on their respective paths to re-entering the playing field. She's greviously injured after Biter ate a portion of her face and she's hopelessly devoted to Jaime. It could fit nicely if she and Ser Hyle gave their lives to help Jaimie and Podrick survive. However, she could also well be the most fearsome fighter left in Westeros, which obviously works in her favor, and not only that but Podrick has her back to boot, and as Tyrion and Brienne can both attest, that's an easy asset to underestimate.

Odds of Survival:


  • Areo Hotah - Once Arianne departs, Areo will be our lone POV remaining in Dorne. But he’ll be chasing down the Darkstar alongside the most capable remaining member of the Kingsguard this side of Robert Strong after offing his sworn brother.

Perhaps this is more opinion than fact, but Hotah has never felt thematically necessary, and though there’s no one else to keep an eye on Dorne for us, do we really need anyone to? The Sand Snakes have fanned out on various missions and the area is far from where the action is currently building. We can get updates on Doran and Myrcella in other ways. It’s possible that Hotah’s purpose was simply to provide some background on Norvosi culture, intercept Arianne and Myrcella, eliminate Ser Arys to clear a path for Ser Robert Strong, and confront the Darkstar. Then again, he is a fearsome warrior and may yet have some significance to offer.

Odds of Survival:

The Iron Islands

  • Aeron Greyjoy – As with Hotah, there doesn't seem to be much that necessitates keeping Aeron in play. He called the Kingsmoot, thus setting the remaining Greyjoys on their merry way, and disappeared after failing to prevent Euron from taking the Seastone Chair.The Damphair is our only POV left on the Iron Islands, but there’s no apparent reason we need to know what’s happening here anymore. It’s been an important locale for a while now, but like Dorne, it’s a remote location and all of the other major players are gone--off to push other stories forward elsewhere--and any of them could always return to provide closure at a later point in time.

There’s a good chance Aeron’s opposition to his brother Euron does not go well. It’s always possible he could rally his people and hold some as yet unknown significance, but if we’re trying to eliminate POVs, there’s a lot suggesting this one might be expendable. The best thing Aeron has going for him over Hotah is that he's a bit more directly connected to the major plotlines in the story, but knowing GRRM, that kind of protection is about as good as a paper shield in the hands of Cersei Lannister.

Odds of Survival:

The Dothraki Sea

  • Daenerys Targaryen - Starved, dehydrated, stuck in the Dothraki Sea with Drogon and Jhaqo's Khalasar, Dany might seem perfectly vulnerable in some ways. It’s tough to argue that we need eyes kept on a bunch of arid planes that we’ve seen nothing of since ACOK, and as far as we know, Jhaqo has no special love for Dany and Drogon is completely out of control.

Then again, Dany does have quite a bit of prophecy protecting her, her narrative significance is deep as the one of the last members of the Targaryen lineage (and perhaps the last), and it would be awkward for her to die just as the Meereenese knot comes untied. She may yet die an unexpected death, but it's probably still too early for that, if it’s to happen at all.

Odds of Survival:

Based on these odds, we can expect roughly four of these characters to die, bringing the POV total down from a whopping 19 to a more manageable 15--a number still higher than any entry prior to ADWD, but a step in the right direction to tightening the story back within itself.

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Great post, Meddler! Very well thought out and reasoned.

I feel those are accurate odds, the only one I'd disagree with is Theon, I feel he is more likely to die than Tyrion (they have the same odds),I think 4:1 or 3:1 fits better. With Theon, he does have a lot to offer the plot, however his death can also offer something to plot (ie. hearttree sacrifice) or he can have some importance just prior to perishing (ie. kingsmoot deemed invalid, revealing he didn't murder Bran and Rickon)

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I don't see Cersei dying in TWOW. Her uncle was just killed and I think she is gong to prevail her trial. And we're going to see her back in power in TWOW as queen regent again. I think she'll live long enough to see Tommen and Mycella die (I think at least one of them will die in TWOW). Her biggest fear is harm coming to her children, so that's exactly what will happen. She'll live long enough to suffer through that. She'll definately die in the last book, after reaffirming herself as the most hated villain again.

Part of me thinks Theon will live until the last book. His story has become one of the more interesting POVs post Storm, and I feel like he has more to do before answering to the Starks. That said, I could see him dying to somehow breathe new life into Jon.

Same for Stannis. I see him lasting one more book. Littlefinger and Varys too.

But, SOMEBODY'S gotta die in the next book! Tommen, or Mycella, Victarion, some lower level Freys, Roose and Ramsay Bolton, and maybe Robert Aryn.

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Meddler, thank you for your analysis, I've just enjoyed reading it. I agree around the idea of redundancy POVs and how some are perhaps coming to the end of their usefulness by now. It's a shame about Asha, though.

My predictions:

Stoneheart (so that the BwB can redeem themselves, under Brienne's leadership maybe?)

Tommen OR Mycrella (I doubt both)

Margaery (everyone expects her to be cleared of her charges, which means she won't be)

Possibly either Mance or Tarly (Both houses relatively unscathed so far, so they need a bash)

Melisandre (her main purpose seems to have been to make prophecies on the other Kings during the War of the Five Kings, and to warn Jon. She's done both these things now).

Selmy (in a self-sacrifice way,after telling Dany the truth about her father)

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Littlefinger- Sansa kills him to save Sweet Robert and becomes the power in the Vale.

Personally I believe she will kill him as well.. but not for that reason. She cares nothing for the little boy, although I'm sure she would have some guilt issues about it. I think she will kill him for one of two reasons.

1. To protect her chasity from him >.>

2. He lets it be known he whispered in Joff's ear to have her father's head off. There is no evidence to support this... but after reading the first book I feel pretty strongly that Littlefinger played a bigger role than though in getting Eddard in a crap load of trouble, and then letting him die... probably as vengeance for taking Cat (who he disalusionally believes truly loves himself) and Brandon beating the crap out of him. To support this idea that Sansa would kill for this reason... the only other time Sansa had murder on the mind was when Joff had her look at her father's head and she imagined pushing him to his death.

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