Mance Rayder, Melisandre and Ramsay Snow

[alienarea]

This is long, and it starts with the Pink Letter, but that is not its purpose. My speculation is that Mance Rayder has overtaken Ramsay Snow, glamours himself to be him with the help of Melisandre's ruby, and wrote the Pink Letter to orchestrate Jon's assassination.

There are already a few threads about the Pink Letter, and it has been analyzed a few times. I put most of the Pink Letter analysis below in the Theon I thread in the TWoW section a few months back. But what has always puzzled me is that the letter seems to have a break as if written by two persons or in intervals. This gets best visible between the third and fourth paragraph. In the third paragraph it “I will have my bride back”, in the fourth “I want my bride back”.

The most likely candidates for writing the letter are either Ramsay, assuming he gained the knowledge about Mance from flaying the spearwives and/or Mance, or Mance, because he is the only one who knows about the spearwives and his false execution.

But I don’t want to start another thread on the pink letter, but have the [crackpot] theory that Mance overtook Ramsay and has himself glamoured as Ramsay Bolton using Melisandre’s ruby.

The Pink Letter

bold = text of the original pink letter

italics = hidden message in the letter

normal = comments and analysis

Bastard Dear Jon

When Jon Snow meets Mance Rayder for the first time while infiltrating the wildlings, Jon needs to convince Mance that he is really a deserter. They talk about when Mance was in Winterfell and Jon asks him: “Where did they place the bastard?” to convince him, i.e. Jon calls himself a bastard in order to gain Mance’s trust. Mance picks up on this as an opener.

Your false king is dead, bastard. Stannis Baratheon is dead, Jon. He and all his host were smashed in seven days of battle. I have his magic sword. Tell his red whore. Inform Melisandre about this.

Mance is in the hall when the raven from the Karstarks arrives and gives away Stannis location. The seven days of battle add up based on this. Three days to get there, one day battle, three days to get back. Stannis’ sword is now in Winterfell, as a proof that Stannis is dead. Possible misinformation from the returning Manderleys: The Northmen that were with Stannis haven’t been smashed but wait outside of Winterfell with the Umbers.

Your false king’s friends are dead. Their heads upon the walls of Winterfell. Come see them, bastard. Come to Winterfell, Jon. Your false king lied, and so did you. Stannis Baratheon lied, and you as well. You told the world you burned the King-Beyond-the-Wall. Instead you sent him to Winterfell to steal my bride from me.

The heads on the walls of Winterfell are most likely those of the Karstarks executed for treason. You usually don’t put the heads of no names on a spike and the Karstarks made themselves available. Could Ramsay know that Mance Rayder was burned at the wall? And Stannis part in this? One could argue that the spearwives and/or Mance gave this away while being flayed, but would it be important enough for Ramsay to mention to Jon? This paragraph is Mance writing as Mance.

I will have my bride back. If you want Mance Rayder back, come and get him. I have him in a cage for all the north to see, proof of your lies. The cage is cold, but I have made him a warm cloak from the skins of the six whores who came with him to Winterfell.

In this paragraph Mance Rayder gets named. As Theon says, it is important to remember your name. Mance Rayder is the only name given in the whole letter except for Ramsay Bolton in the signature. From this paragraph on it is Mance writing as Ramsay.

I want my bride back. I want the false king’s queen. I want his daughter and his red witch. I want his wildling princess. I want his little prince, the wildling babe. And I want my Reek. Sent them to me, bastard, and I will not trouble you or your black crows. Keep them from me, and I will cut out your bastard’s heart and eat it.

Ramsay doesn’t know half the people he asks for nor does he care for them. But Mance does. The black crows comment and the bastard heart give him away.

Ramsay Bolton,

Trueborn Lord of Winterfell

Of course, posing as Ramsay he has to sign as Ramsay. The line Trueborn Lord of Winterfell is another giveaway. Mance doesn’t get the titles straight.

Where is Roose?

One of the looming questions from the previous pink letter threads was why would cunning Roose Bolton allow hot-blooded Ramsay to send out the pink letter, provoking an open fight with the Nightwatch. A fellow poster came up with a simple but brilliant solution: Roose left Winterfell and made a beeline to the Dreadfort. That makes perfect sense: Roose feels the tension and hostilities in Winterfell, culminating in the murders. And he knows Stannis is coming with an army and a capable warrior and strategist. Roose sends out the Freys and the Manderleys to deal with Stannis and then retreats to the Dreadfort with his core army, i.e. the most loyal. He calculates that either Ramsay gets Stannis or Stannis gets Ramsay and expects the survivor in the Dreadfort, which is not broken like WInterfell, probably has more food and is his home turf.

The Spearwives

It has been speculated that Ramsay caught the spearwives in the aftermath of “Arya’s” escape and flayed them, thus getting the information about Mance necessary to write the letter. What we know from the escape scene the spearwives fought to the death, and this fits much better with Ramsay’s habits as well. He would have kept them for hunting, wouldn’t he? I assume all spearwives are dead but dies fighting, getting flayed afterwards.

Ramsay Snow

After flaying the spearwives, possibly out of frustration that he couldn’t catch them alive, Ramsay has been overtaken by Mance. Mance stripped him naked, cut out his tongue (remember Craster’s words of nailing a tongue to the tree?) and made him a cloak of the skins of the spearwives, before putting him in a cage. Maybe shaving his head as well. Who would take a closer look at a naked man in a cage cloaked in the skin of six women?

Mance Rayder

Before arriving in Winterfell, Mance was considering to pull of Melisandre’s ruby. But he didn’t. If he could have done it, why didn’t he? Because he still needed it. Maybe he tried to glamour as someone else on the way as test run?

Additionally, we need to remember that Mance was hurt badly while ranging and got healed by a wood witch, returning with stripes of red silk woven into his black night watch coat. One of the reasons why he left the wall and became the king-beyond-the-wall. Or didn’t he?

Maybe Mance never left the Nightwatch but infiltrated the wildlings as Jon did, only with more success. It would also explain why he was never caught. He rounded up the wildlings and brought them to the wall. We wondered what he wanted to do once he got the wildlings beyond the wall and didn’t find a convincing answer. But if he is still with the Nightwatch, that maybe wasn’t his plan. Just bring the wildlings to the wall and kill them. So they can’t be turned into wights. That would imply he knew the Others were coming again. Which he did, because according to Ygritte, he woke them.

Finally, if Mance Rayder is still a man of the watch, he could have conspired with for example Bowen Marsh after “being burned” to orchestrate the assassination of Jon. His little ploy would be writing the pink letter to start this.

Melisandre

When Melisandre wants to see Stannis, all she sees is Snow. Ramsay Snow, because Mance is glamoured into him. You might say that she should be able to see through her own glamour, but if Mance has Stannis sword as well, maybe her own glamours confuse her? And if she doesn’t expect it it might be hard to see.

Also, could the wood witch healing Mance and weaving red silk from Asshai into his coat have been Melisandre? Was she in league with Mance all along?

I crackpotted a while back she is TGO hiding in plain sight. Her powers increase at the wall. Maybe she helped Mance waking the Others? Or he helped her? I have a feeling they doublecross each other (no pun, maybe).

The Hooded Man

To get to know all this we need a POV in Winterfell. The only logical solution, which has been pointed out in the Hooded man threads, is Davos. Conspiring with Lord Manderley during one of his legendary dumps, his return with or withot Rickon started the hostilities of the Manderleys. And would lead to Roose retreating to the Dreadfort.

Theon

Theon is not involved in any of this. But I don’t think his story is over yet. He can still shoot an arrow, can’t he? When Roose retreats to the Dreadfort, his paths will somehow cross with Theon, who will avenge his best friend. “Robb Stark sends his regards.” After this, Theon can die in peace.

[Melifeather]

alienarea, I've very much believed that the part about Mance in a cage "keeping warm with a cloak of skins" was code for whoever was in the cage was being glamored. I've copied a lot of what I've said before in the Heresy thread and inserted it below with some edits.

Melisandre said that glamors are made more powerful by wearing something that belonged to the other person. If Mance overtook Ramsay somehow, he must have him tied up in the cage and gagged, or his tongue is cut out, AND covered with the cloak of skins. Then Mance must still have the glamor, but he's taken off the bones and is wearing something of Ramsay's.

The power of the glamor is in the cuff with the ruby that Mel gave Mance to wear, but she said that the glamor is stronger if the person is also wearing something that belonged to the other person, like Rattleshirt's bones.

Theon described Abel's appearance to be more like Mance than Rattleshirt, who is a small man with a widow's peak. So, apparently Mance took the cuff off before arriving at Winterfell. Where's the cuff? Did he give it back to Mel? I don't think so. I think he had to keep it on until he was away from the Wall so that no one would see he was Mance. I was wondering if the spearwife that was playing his "old mother" was wearing the cuff and a dress? Anyways....if Mance were to overtake Ramsay, rip his tongue out (lol), and give him the cloak of skins to wear, which he probably would want if Mance took his clothes, then Mance could put the cuff back on and wear Ramsay's clothes. I think the power of glamor is in the cuff. Your comment regarding the woods witch healing Mance and weaving red silk from Asshai into his coat sounds very much like Melisandre was involved. And the addition of the red silk in his coat was probably a way for Mance to change his glamor.

If one part of the letter is true, it doesn't mean the rest of the letter is true. I think parts of it are true, parts of it are false, and parts of it are a coded message.

I think the spearwives are indeed dead. In ADWD we read about the deaths of some of them. I think Mance somehow eluded capture, and a way for him to do that is to overtake Ramsay. But he still is alone and needs to protect himself, especially if the battle with Stannis isn't over yet. The part about "Mance" being in a cage with a cloak on is probably true, but I don't think its Mance. If Mance is wearing somebody else's clothes, that person would wrap that cloak about themselves. And Melisandre said that people see what they expect to see. They expect to see Mance in the cage.

I think everything is fake except the part about the cage and somebody being kept warm with a cloak of skins. I think that Melisandre and Mance already had agreed to a plan that included getting Jon to trust Melisandre and leave for Winterfell. The cage part, the warm part, and the cloak of skins part is the code to Melisandre to let her know that he has transferred the glamor onto someone else. When he was speaking earlier with Melisandre about wearing the glamor, he stated how warm it was. Like a kiss from her, and even an uncomfortable heat. He said he thinks about removing it everyday, but that everyday he decides to continue to wear it. Ultimately, he does remove it because Theon's description of Abel sounds like Mance and not Rattleshirt.

Mance fell in easily enough with Melisandre. There must be something more than just her saving him from being burned. I can't help but think that since everyone thought he was Rattleshirt, and as such was free to roam around, why didn't he try to round up some wildlings and form an outlaw group, rather than agree to Melisandre's plans?

Could it have been that Melisandre saw what kind of man Mance was in her fires, and Mance liked Melisandre's stance against the Others? I think they conspired "off screen" at the time that she saved him. They must have talked about something. She had to explain to him why he was now Rattleshirt and that he was not going to be the one that burned after all.

There's a theory that the story of the Night's King was actually a coup d'état, that the First Men's loyalties shifted away from the Children and towards the Andals. This is where you could say that a Night Watchman was only "true" if he swore to the old gods.

If the weirwood door at the Nightfort only opens for "true" men of the Night's Watch, that's why it opened for Sam even though he left out parts of the vow. Mance was a man of the Night's Watch prior to his leaving to live among the wildlings and becoming King-Beyond-the-Wall, but what if he was on a mission to infiltrate the wildlings the same way as Jon? Could it be that he's still a man of the Night's Watch, not the true Night's Watch, but the current Night's Watch that betrayed the Children and aligned themselves with the Andals? This could also apply to Bowen Marsh and Alliser Thorne. They are part of the current Night's Watch, but not the true Night's Watch. It might also explain why Wick Wittlestick and Bowen Marsh both said, "For the Watch" when they stabbed him?

If Mance is actually part of the current Night's Watch, and he's working with Melisandre to get Jon to Winterfell, then perhaps they're trying to prevent him from becoming the Night's King come again? They want to get him into the crypts and secure him with an iron sword so that he cannot rise?

[Melifeather]

alienarea...you need to change the title of this thread to something that will get more attention. I suggest something that includes "Ramsay is wearing the 6-whore-skin cloak in the cage", or "Mance captured Ramsay" or "Ramsay's staying warm...", you get my drift. Also...could you please include either a link or page number or something as to where I can re-read Craster's words about the "nailing the tongue to a tree"?

[fassreiter]

There are arguments and textual based evidece against almost every single sentence in this thread, but I said it all before, so why bother? Have fun.

[evita mgfs]

I oft wondered about Mance's cloak because Rattleshirt was not wearing it. Cloaks seem important. I traced the cloaks through Jon's POV, and Martin makes sure he tells us Jon hangs his cloak up and puts it on.

One day - it may be the day he is stabbed - he dresses in the dark. The bird gets him up early from a bad dream, and he opens the window right away for the bird. he never closes the window - so Ghost has a way out when he is stabbed. Even if the day this happens is not the day he was stabbed, it still establishes where Mormont's raven may be - not locked in Jon's room, and Ghost too. Ghost may have jumped out earlier at the bird's prompting, before Jon wargs him. Maybe Jon as Ghost will avenge his murderers. I don't know. But it is fun to speculate.

Good ideas - both have thorough analysis!

[shk12344]

There are arguments and textual based evidece against almost every single sentence in this thread, but I said it all before, so why bother? Have fun.

Even if GRRM confirms it was Ramsay, there will be people who will continue to argue it was someone else.

[oprahnoodlemantra]

I actually really like this theory.

[Melifeather]

There are arguments and textual based evidece against almost every single sentence in this thread, but I said it all before, so why bother? Have fun.

I really haven't read any threads that discussed this before, so I would be very interested in reading your arguments.

[Mammothsbane]

Where is Roose?

One of the looming questions from the previous pink letter threads was why would cunning Roose Bolton allow hot-blooded Ramsay to send out the pink letter, provoking an open fight with the Nightwatch. A fellow poster came up with a simple but brilliant solution: Roose left Winterfell and made a beeline to the Dreadfort. That makes perfect sense: Roose feels the tension and hostilities in Winterfell, culminating in the murders. And he knows Stannis is coming with an army and a capable warrior and strategist. Roose sends out the Freys and the Manderleys to deal with Stannis and then retreats to the Dreadfort with his core army, i.e. the most loyal. He calculates that either Ramsay gets Stannis or Stannis gets Ramsay and expects the survivor in the Dreadfort, which is not broken like WInterfell, probably has more food and is his home turf.

This is the only part of the post I semi agree with. I think it's likely Roose up and left Ramsay to run the show.

The Spearwives

It has been speculated that Ramsay caught the spearwives in the aftermath of “Arya’s” escape and flayed them, thus getting the information about Mance necessary to write the letter. What we know from the escape scene the spearwives fought to the death, and this fits much better with Ramsay’s habits as well. He would have kept them for hunting, wouldn’t he? I assume all spearwives are dead but dies fighting, getting flayed afterwards.

No, he wouldn't keep them alive for hunting. Ramsay is deranged, but he understands the importance of Jeyne/Arya to his claim. If she fled, Ramsay would need to know where she was going and fast. We know Squirrel was still alive because she was in the room posing as Arya and wasn't mentioned as dead IIRC. Also, I'm fairly confident only 3 of the spearwives were confirmed dead, so he has three to interrogate to find the info contained in the letter.

Ramsay Snow

After flaying the spearwives, possibly out of frustration that he couldn’t catch them alive, Ramsay has been overtaken by Mance. Mance stripped him naked, cut out his tongue (remember Craster’s words of nailing a tongue to the tree?) and made him a cloak of the skins of the spearwives, before putting him in a cage. Maybe shaving his head as well. Who would take a closer look at a naked man in a cage cloaked in the skin of six women?

So you're suggesting that Mance somehow overpowered Ramsay and his guards single-handed, cut out his tongue, then put him in a cage, then glamoured himself to look like him without anyone noticing? You're also suggesting that Mance would knit a cloak out of the skins of the Spearwives that went to Winterfell with him?

What makes you think Mance has the ability to glamour himself? How would Mance make himself look like Ramsay, or Ramsay look like Mance? This doesn't make any sense at all to me.

Mance Rayder

Before arriving in Winterfell, Mance was considering to pull of Melisandre’s ruby. But he didn’t. If he could have done it, why didn’t he? Because he still needed it. Maybe he tried to glamour as someone else on the way as test run?

Additionally, we need to remember that Mance was hurt badly while ranging and got healed by a wood witch, returning with stripes of red silk woven into his black night watch coat. One of the reasons why he left the wall and became the king-beyond-the-wall. Or didn’t he?

Maybe Mance never left the Nightwatch but infiltrated the wildlings as Jon did, only with more success. It would also explain why he was never caught. He rounded up the wildlings and brought them to the wall. We wondered what he wanted to do once he got the wildlings beyond the wall and didn’t find a convincing answer. But if he is still with the Nightwatch, that maybe wasn’t his plan. Just bring the wildlings to the wall and kill them. So they can’t be turned into wights. That would imply he knew the Others were coming again. Which he did, because according to Ygritte, he woke them.

Finally, if Mance Rayder is still a man of the watch, he could have conspired with for example Bowen Marsh after “being burned” to orchestrate the assassination of Jon. His little ploy would be writing the pink letter to start this.

This is about as crackpot as it gets. Mance Rayder led a full-scale invasion of the Wall. He is not working as a member of the Night's Watch. He ordered the Thenn's to take out the Wall, amassed giants, mammoths, wargs, and all the clans of the Wildlings together to take the Wall and settle as far south as they could get. That was his endgame as described in the books.

You're also suggesting that Mance has the ability to glamour people when he doesn't. Mance at the Wall is glamoured to look like Rattleshirt. Let's assume that the ruby makes whoever is wearing it look like Rattleshirt. That means that if Mance gives the ring to someone that they appear like Rattleshirt. Mance can't just make himself look like anyone he wants. He isn't a witch.

Melisandre

When Melisandre wants to see Stannis, all she sees is Snow. Ramsay Snow, because Mance is glamoured into him. You might say that she should be able to see through her own glamour, but if Mance has Stannis sword as well, maybe her own glamours confuse her? And if she doesn’t expect it it might be hard to see.

Also, could the wood witch healing Mance and weaving red silk from Asshai into his coat have been Melisandre? Was she in league with Mance all along?

I crackpotted a while back she is TGO hiding in plain sight. Her powers increase at the wall. Maybe she helped Mance waking the Others? Or he helped her? I have a feeling they doublecross each other (no pun, maybe).

If Mel is looking for Stannis, why would she see Mance? And how would Mance be Ramsay? He can't glamour people. Only Mel can as far as we know.

If Mel is The Great Other, then this is the longest con of all time. Mance being healed happened like 20 years before AGOT.

Suffice it to say, I think there is some serious crack up in the pot in this thread.

[nepaliman_7]

I don't know if I believe that there are two Night's Watches.

[fassreiter]

I really haven't read any threads that discussed this before, so I would be very interested in reading your arguments.

Mammothsbane said it all. There is more, but you can look into any pink-letter-thread there is since ADWD was published (the pink letter is the reason I joined the forums last year). This theory here isn't exactly new ( ), and alienarea has said it all before, too. I have still to read a theory about the pink letter that can't be taken apart easily (and I liked some of them.very much!). As far as I know, Ramsay wrote it. The question should rather be, how much of it is true?

[Melifeather]

No, he wouldn't keep them alive for hunting. Ramsay is deranged, but he understands the importance of Jeyne/Arya to his claim. If she fled, Ramsay would need to know where she was going and fast. We know Squirrel was still alive because she was in the room posing as Arya and wasn't mentioned as dead IIRC. Also, I'm fairly confident only 3 of the spearwives were confirmed dead, so he has three to interrogate to find the info contained in the letter.

I agree that he wouldn't keep any of them alive for hunting, but I do believe that all six spearwives are dead.

So you're suggesting that Mance somehow overpowered Ramsay and his guards single-handed, cut out his tongue, then put him in a cage, then glamoured himself to look like him without anyone noticing? You're also suggesting that Mance would knit a cloak out of the skins of the Spearwives that went to Winterfell with him?

What makes you think Mance has the ability to glamour himself? How would Mance make himself look like Ramsay, or Ramsay look like Mance? This doesn't make any sense at all to me.

If Ramsay saw to it that all six spearwives are killed, he could have made the cloak, but whoever is in that cage doesn't necessarily have to have the skins from all six spearwives. The purpose of that section of the letter is a coded message to Melisandre that whoever is in the cage is a glamor to look like Mance.

Melisandre said the strongest glamors are when something of the person being glamored is used, like Rattleshirt's bones. Mance had to wear Rattleshirts bones and the cuff with the ruby in order to pull off the glamor. Melisandre also said that people will see what they expect to see. So, if they expect to see Mance in a cage, then they see Mance in the cage. The thing about the "tongue" was to explain as to whether or not whoever in the cage would talk and just say who they were. But, I don't think that's necessary, because nobody seemed to listen to Rattleshirt when he was burned in the cage at the Wall.

Mance was born a wildling and raised by the Night's Watch. He was a faithful brother until the day he met the wood's witch. His cloak was torn and she repaired it with "red cloth from Asshai". Doesn't that sound a wee bit suspicious to you? I think the wood's witch was a follower of R'hllor and that Mance was converted. From that day forward, he was advancing a cause for R'hllor. I believe his identity as King-Beyond-the-Wall was a ruse similar to Jon pretending to be a wildling. I think Melisandre knew Mance was a follower of R'hllor and they have conspired on some plan. Don't you think they had some type of conversation when she saved him from burning in the cage? As a follower of R'hllor, it may be that Mance does have some powers and with the help of the cuff, he's taken off Rattleshirt's bones and dressed himself in Ramsay's clothes. If other people believed he was now Ramsay, it wouldn't have been difficult for them to now see Ramsay as Bael the singer and force him into the cage. He could either be wearing the Bael costume, or he could be naked. But the use of "keeping warm with a cloak" is the coded part of the message that this is a glamor.

This is about as crackpot as it gets. Mance Rayder led a full-scale invasion of the Wall. He is not working as a member of the Night's Watch. He ordered the Thenn's to take out the Wall, amassed giants, mammoths, wargs, and all the clans of the Wildlings together to take the Wall and settle as far south as they could get. That was his endgame as described in the books.

I believe we actually have two kinds of men at the Wall: the current Night's Watch that swears in front of the Seven, and the "true" Night's Watch that swore to the old gods. I think Mance is still part of the current Night's Watch, but not a part of the true Night's Watch. He infiltrated the wildlings and pretended to be this King-Beyond-the-Wall. He has great powers of suggestion and he knows how to win the hearts of men. But, he's not what he appears to be. He's a follower of R'hllor.

If Mel is looking for Stannis, why would she see Mance? And how would Mance be Ramsay? He can't glamour people. Only Mel can as far as we know.

If Mel is The Great Other, then this is the longest con of all time. Mance being healed happened like 20 years before AGOT.

Suffice it to say, I think there is some serious crack up in the pot in this thread.

I for one still think when she says "Snow", she means Jon. I think the Great Other is the other side of the same coin as R'hllor. Melisandre was captured as a girl and sold as a slave to the red god. I think she's misguided. For some reason she believes that winter has to be eliminated so that everyone can enjoy a summer without end. But, the fact of the matter is, an unending summer would be just as devastating as a winter without end. The same would be true for Daenerys if she is all "Fire". Jon may need her help to bring winter into check, but ultimately he cannot allow her to totally destroy it. Jon is both Ice and Fire. He's the balancing force and will probably end up sacrificing himself to save the balance of nature.

[Mammothsbane]

If Ramsay saw to it that all six spearwives are killed, he could have made the cloak, but whoever is in that cage doesn't necessarily have to have the skins from all six spearwives. The purpose of that section of the letter is a coded message to Melisandre that whoever is in the cage is a glamor to look like Mance.

But once again: how? Mance can't glamour people. The glamour (which I believe doesn't even exist outside of Mel's sphere of influence. I believe that Mance looks like Mance and not Rattleshirt when in Winterfell) is only meant to make the person look like Rattleshirt, not anyone they want.

Melisandre said the strongest glamors are when something of the person being glamored is used, like Rattleshirt's bones. Mance had to wear Rattleshirts bones and the cuff with the ruby in order to pull off the glamor. Melisandre also said that people will see what they expect to see. So, if they expect to see Mance in a cage, then they see Mance in the cage. The thing about the "tongue" was to explain as to whether or not whoever in the cage would talk and just say who they were. But, I don't think that's necessary, because nobody seemed to listen to Rattleshirt when he was burned in the cage at the Wall.

People see what they expect to see because they don't look too deep, I agree. That's why Mance wore the bones/armor of Rattleshirt. It doesn't mean you can just glamour anybody to look like anybody. Melisandre was constantly using her power to make the glamour appear. She mentions how hard it was in her POV chapter.

Mance was born a wildling and raised by the Night's Watch. He was a faithful brother until the day he met the wood's witch. His cloak was torn and she repaired it with "red cloth from Asshai". Doesn't that sound a wee bit suspicious to you? I think the wood's witch was a follower of R'hllor and that Mance was converted. From that day forward, he was advancing a cause for R'hllor. I believe his identity as King-Beyond-the-Wall was a ruse similar to Jon pretending to be a wildling. I think Melisandre knew Mance was a follower of R'hllor and they have conspired on some plan. Don't you think they had some type of conversation when she saved him from burning in the cage? As a follower of R'hllor, it may be that Mance does have some powers and with the help of the cuff, he's taken off Rattleshirt's bones and dressed himself in Ramsay's clothes. If other people believed he was now Ramsay, it wouldn't have been difficult for them to now see Ramsay as Bael the singer and force him into the cage. He could either be wearing the Bael costume, or he could be naked. But the use of "keeping warm with a cloak" is the coded part of the message that this is a glamor.

Are you suggesting that Melisandre was the woods witch who repaired Mance's cloak as well? Wasn't Mel's backstory told? She was sold into slavery or something. How the hell would she get North of the Wall?

I believe we actually have two kinds of men at the Wall: the current Night's Watch that swears in front of the Seven, and the "true" Night's Watch that swore to the old gods. I think Mance is still part of the current Night's Watch, but not a part of the true Night's Watch. He infiltrated the wildlings and pretended to be this King-Beyond-the-Wall. He has great powers of suggestion and he knows how to win the hearts of men. But, he's not what he appears to be. He's a follower of R'hllor.

I mean I just disagree with this. Mance planned and led a full-scale invasion of the Wall with just about all the strength the Wildlings could muster. I don't understand how all of this was part of some elaborate ruse set up 20 years ago by Melisandre and Mance. I also don't think Mance is a secret R'hllor supporter because it's simply unnecessary. There is nothing to suggest he believes in this. He is from the north. Meeting the woods witch doesn't seem suspicious to me at all because it's such a minor detail to Mance's story - the story that repeats a theme throughout the series (that is, what are vows really worth?).

ETA: Also, if Mance has overpowered the people at Winterfell, why is he sending secret coded messages as Ramsay? Why not just send a letter to Jon (or Melisandre) as Mance explaining the situation?

[Melifeather]

Mammothsbane said it all. There is more, but you can look into any pink-letter-thread there is since ADWD was published (the pink letter is the reason I joined the forums last year). This theory here isn't exactly new ( http://asoiaf.wester...ossible-glamor/ ), and alienarea has said it all before, too. I have still to read a theory about the pink letter that can't be taken apart easily (and I liked some of them.very much!). As far as I know, Ramsay wrote it. The question should rather be, how much of it is true?

Now granted I only read through the first two pages in the link you included, but I think I am offering a very reasonable argument using the books as evidence. I also need to point out that I am only focusing on one part of the pink letter. I am undecided as to whether or not the part of Stannis being dead is true or not. Most of what's in that letter was just a way to push all of Jon's buttons to get him to react. The letter tells him to, "tell his red whore". Melisandre wants Jon to come to her, and I think this letter was initially her plan.

[evita mgfs]

Feather Crystal - I thought one of my old posts may give you some ideas as well. :dunno:

Here's a post I made regarding the glamor. Mel does not have the only game glamoring folk. Glamor is smoke and mirrors. My crackpot ideas follow.

The sorcery or magic that Mel commands when casting a glamor on Rattleshirt to make him Mance and Mance to make him Rattleshirt seemingly parallels the magic elements in the H0B&W and Bran’s warded cave.

The sorcerers command powers, or knowledge, to transform physical appearances of themselves, or others, specifically their pupils. Each wizard’s methodology may be different in varying degrees, but magic serves a means to an end in each location, albeit in the name of R’hollor, the old gods, or the God of Many Faces.

By comparing instances of glamor, perhaps ambiguities can be clarified [for me, specifically, No One’s Myrish mirror].

Deconstructing Magic [add to my ideas, or bash them kindly]:

Kindly priest tells Arya when she asks to learn to change her face with the magic of Jaqen: “Mummers change their faces with

1. Artifice . . . and
   
2. Glamor-Sorcerers [Melisandre] use glamors, weaving light and shadow and desire to make illusions that trick the eye. These arts you shall learn, but what we do goes deeper. Wise men can see through artifice, and glamors dissolve before sharp eyes,
   
3. But the face you are to don will be as true and solid as that face you were born with” (842-843).
   

I deduce that an 1] Artifice – is a big part mummers’ tricks, theatre and acting convincingly, or telling a lie- skills learned by mummers - altering appearance through make-up, hair pieces, costumes, performance [such as Varys' disguises in GOT]; messing with illusion versus reality; special effects – smoke and mirrors [Mels’ powders]; moreover, actor’s learn voice, dialect, mime, emoting, self-control, posture, memorization, impromptu performance, using the spotlight, no light, any light, hamming it up, fading into the background, raising a curtain, playing well with others in a company, properties, stage fighting, blocking, mirror work, dance, how to take a bow, a standing O, and so much more! Get the idea?

For the FM, artifice is necessary to carry out with any success a new face. For example, when the kindly priest prepares Arya for her first hit, he has her spend a great deal of time studying her victim [like an actor preparing to play “Hannibal” Lecter by reading about cannibalistic serial killers, or watching the Lifetime or ID network; or James Cameron visiting and revisiting the resting site of Titanic 3-4 times to learn his star’s potential and to get good close-up shots of his lead performer with better lighting equipment].

To achieve her goal, Arya studies her prey, learning his habits of biting coins, his schedule, his haunts, his clientele, his foes, and so on. Similarly, Jaqen very likely stalked and studied Pate before taking his face, mimicking his rounded shoulders, obtaining a wash to make his eyes red and weepy, costuming himself in Pate’s garb, mooning to all his pals about the girl he wants to deflower, etc. Some of Pate’s essence remains in his face, or skin or hood. This helps, but a man and a girl need more than mere looks.

2] Glamor is an illusion, a magic trick achieved by weaving “light and shadow” - a “seeming” rather than a “reality”. [such as that glamor Melesandre performs on Mance Rayder and Rattleshirt.]

“The bones help . . . the bones remember.The strongest glamors are built of such things . . . With whispered words and prayer, a man’s shadow can be drawn forth and draped about another like a cloak.The wearer’s essence does not change, only his seeming” (DwD 419).

“She made it sound a simple thing, and easy.They need never know how difficult it had been, or how much it had cost her.That was a lesson Melisandre had learned long before Asshai:the more effortless the sorcery appears, the more men fear the sorcerer.”

“When the flames had licked at Rattleshirt, the ruby at her throat had grown so hot that she had feared her own flesh might start to smoke and blacken.Thankfully, Lord Snow had delivered her from that agony with his arrows while Stannis seethed at the defiance, she had shuddered with relief.”

Mel tells JS Mance owes him his life.A startled Jon says, “Me?”

“Who else, my lord. Only his life’s blood could pay for his crimes, your laws said, and Stannis Baratheon is not a man to go against the law . . .but as you said so sagely, the laws of men end at the Wall.”

3) Faceless Men Magic - the magic that allows a FM to wear a mask of the dead over their own countenance for a more reliable, believable disguise [such as Arya wearing the face of the Ugly Girl and Jaqen wearing the face of the Alchemist/Pate].

***Just a brief thought: IN Lord of the Flies, much is made of the face paint, or masking of Jack Merridew and his savages. Golding’s text [paraphrase from memory] “The mask freed him [Merridew] from shame and self-conscience.” Just as a robber wears a disguise to rip off a bank [in my town the robber’s wear baseball hats or team jackets with their names monogrammed on them], so Arya and Jaqen mask to kill.

After the priest does the Face Over on Arya, a spell that draws blood and requires Arya to drink something lemony, “She felt her cheeks, touched her eyes, traced the line of her jaw. ‘My face is still the same’” (DwD 843).

Arya does not feel any change, “but maybe it was not something you could feel. ‘It feels the same” (DwD 843).

“‘To you,’ said the priest. “It does not look the same.’

‘To others’ eyes, your nose and jaw are broken,’ said the waif. ‘One side of your face is caved in where your cheekbone shattered, and half your teeth are missing.’

“She probed around with her tongue, but found no holes or broken teeth. Sorcery, she thought, I have a new face. An ugly, broken face” (DwD 843).

In this magic I have some problems with ambiguity, especially since the priest and waif expound on the horror that is her new face; Arya needs the Phantom of the Opera’s white mask, [another MASK to hide her new one to spare the viewing public] and instead of howling at the moon in her wolf, she can perform “Music of the Night” with the Mummer’s in the Purple Harbor.

Arya can sense no change by tactile references. If she were I in a new Halloween costume or new outfit, I would race to a mirror to check out my disguise. But not precocious Arya who never takes another’s word as anything but wind, with a few exceptions [unless it is some growth on her part – she is learning to believe authority? Naw!]. My little ‘curious and curiouser’ No One never finds the Myrish mirror, in front of which she practiced commanding her facial muscles and learned to control a smile.

Martin does put the verb ‘feel’ in his sentences – does it mean that if Arya looked in her mirror, she could see her disguised face? Is it a seeming?

OR

I am guessing this sorcery to mean that to others, Arya is an Ugly Girl,

but since Arya is so well-trained at this point, she can discern artifice and glamor and FM magic.

So if she looks for her reflection in the glass, she will see No One, once Arya of House Stark.

I still think Arya would check her mirror – she oft defies the priest and seeks truth on her own.

What does this mean? In FM sorcery, the assassins will never truly see themselves in costume? –does that make sense?

Or will they cast no reflection, like my favorite vampire Barnabas Collins [RIP Jonathan Frid] of Dark Shadows fame, who keeps no mirrors in Collinwood to conceal from others that he is one of the living dead?

Deconstructing magic? The fact that Arya does not look in her mirror, or at her reflection in the water, seems fishy – and maybe an intimation of something to come, either in the FM magic or elsewhere.

If I missed Arya peeking at herself, shame on me. Let me know. [My Moses ate part of FfC, about half a hundred pages have a big bite out of them, so he may have eaten an important part].

Theatre motifs in Martin’s use of language. Mel’s fires are oft described as curtains. Even Jon keeps “his face a mask” (53).

Anyways, maybe others can add. I did not include warging various animals, or wargs of the dead living on in animals.

There are lots of similarities among ‘weaving or sewing a cloak to cover another’ from Mel’s camp, much like the face is sewn over Arya’s.

Did Rattleshirt even know he was glamored? Did he know he wore Mance’s “essence” for he certainly did not wear Mance’s red silk lined crow coat.

He smiles until he sees the cage. Did he even know he is going to his own execution, or has he been misled? Maybe he does not even realize he is Mance in disguise?

Did Mel cloak herself with Ygritte when Jon mistakes Mel in the moonlight?

And if Mel can sew a coat of light and shadow, with only a token of another, why can’t she have cloaked Jon Snow in his own reflection, using a hair or two she takes from Ghost when she pets him?

Can Mel cloak another with his own essence? Does she cloak JS with a likeness of himself as a protective shield, or dagger-proof vest, not full proof but it absorbs the blows so that they are not fatal?

Crackpot: When Ghost reacts to Jon in an unfamiliar way, is Mel wearing Jon Snow’s cloak to fool the direwolf? (– Casso King of Seals seems to see Arya as Ugly Girl, or smells her. Similar to dogs and cats being able to see ghosts in legend, or like Argos recognizes his master Odysseus after 20 years gone, even though the King of Ithaca is disguised as a beggar.)

I thank you for your time. I am not claiming to be married to my ideas. More so, I am claiming I may have left the Yellow Brick Road with the Lotus Eaters and need a leader to help me find my true path.

[fassreiter]

Now granted I only read through the first two pages in the link you included, but I think I am offering a very reasonable argument using the books as evidence.

Sorry, but no. This is all crackpot. Just a few minor details:

- Melisandre asks herself in her own POV if 1. Mance wants to kill her and that she would have seen it in her fires, 2. if it was right to save him from being burned 3. if the great Other has influence over him. Doesn't sound exactly like they have known each other for years, work together or share a secret agenda.

- There is absolutely no evidence whatsoever that Mance works for the NW, or the red lot, or wants to kill the wildlings, or any of that crap. Not in the text. There really isn't, except in your head.

- Mance can either attack Ramsay, that's a theory. Or he can fake a letter and claim Mance Rayder is in a cage, that is also a theory. It doesn't make any sense that he should do both! Why should he fake the Mance-in-a-cage-scenario AND on top of that fake a letter that says Ramsay wrote a letter describing the Mance-in-a-cage-scenario? Please, why would he do that?

[Melifeather]

But once again: how? Mance can't glamour people. The glamour (which I believe doesn't even exist outside of Mel's sphere of influence. I believe that Mance looks like Mance and not Rattleshirt when in Winterfell) is only meant to make the person look like Rattleshirt, not anyone they want.

I have already explained how the glamor was completed.

People see what they expect to see because they don't look too deep, I agree. That's why Mance wore the bones/armor of Rattleshirt. It doesn't mean you can just glamour anybody to look like anybody. Melisandre was constantly using her power to make the glamour appear. She mentions how hard it was in her POV chapter.

But someone else pointed out that we have already read about other people who have successfully pulled off glamors.

Are you suggesting that Melisandre was the woods witch who repaired Mance's cloak as well? Wasn't Mel's backstory told? She was sold into slavery or something. How the hell would she get North of the Wall?

Absolutely not. Just another R'hllor priestess. Why insert the information regarding the "red thread from Asshai" if it was unnecessary information?

I mean I just disagree with this. Mance planned and led a full-scale invasion of the Wall with just about all the strength the Wildlings could muster. I don't understand how all of this was part of some elaborate ruse set up 20 years ago by Melisandre and Mance. I also don't think Mance is a secret R'hllor supporter because it's simply unnecessary. There is nothing to suggest he believes in this. He is from the north. Meeting the woods witch doesn't seem suspicious to me at all because it's such a minor detail to Mance's story - the story that repeats a theme throughout the series (that is, what are vows really worth?).

ETA: Also, if Mance has overpowered the people at Winterfell, why is he sending secret coded messages as Ramsay? Why not just send a letter to Jon (or Melisandre) as Mance explaining the situation?

I am not suggesting that Melisandre and Mance have a 20 year long ruse. I think she learned of his true identity in her fires. There is a missing conversation between Melisandre and Mance when she saved him from burning in the cage.

The purpose of the letter is to get Jon to leave the Wall. There could be two reasons for this. Either Melisandre knows Jon's true purpose and she wants to prevent it. Or two, she thinks she knows Jon's true purpose and is trying to make it happen. Both reasons have the same ending in that she wants to get Jon to Winterfell. She knows he's a man of honor and that it would take a lot to get him to forsake his vows.

[fassreiter]

And one more thing: You seem to be convinced that all spearwives are dead (Ramsay saw to that, you say). Why, the letter is the only "evidence" we have that they are dead! If Mance wrote the letter, partly as a code, the spearwives are not dead. So where comes this idea from that Mance made a cloak out of them? We see only one of them die. One is fighting against Bolton men, she might die too. One is in Ramsay's room and soon to be out of the window. Three of them went to get Mance. If they are attacked, Mance will be attacked to, so no secret cloak making. If they are killed or captured, so is Mance. If he made it all up, there was no fight. So the spearwives are o.k. No cloak making either.

[Melifeather]

Sorry, but no. This is all crackpot. Just a few minor details:

- Melisandre asks herself in her own POV if 1. Mance wants to kill her and that she would have seen it in her fires, 2. if it was right to save him from being burned 3. if the great Other has influence over him. Doesn't sound exactly like they have known each other for years, work together or share a secret agenda.

- There is absolutely no evidence whatsoever that Mance works for the NW, or the red lot, or wants to kill the wildlings, or any of that crap. Not in the text. There really isn't, except in your head.

- Mance can either attack Ramsay, that's a theory. Or he can fake a letter and claim Mance Rayder is in a cage, that is also a theory. It doesn't make any sense that he should do both! Why should he fake the Mance-in-a-cage-scenario AND on top of that fake a letter that says Ramsay wrote a letter describing the Mance-in-a-cage-scenario? Please, why would he do that?

My theory that Mance isn't who he says he is, is based on his own story about the wood's witch that repaired his cloak with red-thread from Asshai. It may not suggest anything to you, but it does to me.

I am not saying that Melisandre and Mance had a previous relationship. On the contrary, I am saying there is a missing conversation. What did she say to Mance when she got him to agree to wear the glamor in the first place?

Why doesn't it make sense that Mance would be able to deceive Ramsay and assume his identity? One way to do this is to get everyone else to believe that he is Ramsay. Now everyone believes Mance is in a cage. If he killed Ramsay, he'd have to get rid of the body, plus find a place to hide. This way, he's hiding in plain site as Ramsay.

There are many references to the Wall holding as long as the Night's Watch remains "true". Exactly when hasn't it been true? I say it isn't true now.

You can believe as you like, but your tone is bordering on insulting, and you know what they say: if you have to resort to insults, you don't have a leg to stand on.

[alienarea]

I know it's crackpot, still.

- Ripping out Ramsay's tongue. If he is in the cage he needs to be silent. And wasn't Craster threatening to nail someone's tongue to a pole? That has to resurface somewhere.

- Melisandre only seeing Snow. Ramsay Snow. Or Mance glamoured as Ramsay? I assume GRRM is throwing a curveball with the Melisandre seeing only Snow statement. And I don't want her to see the real Ramsay Snow because then Stannis is doomed.

- glamours. I don't have a clue how that works. Where's the f***ing manual? My assumption for this theory is that as long as Mance wears the ruby he can glamour himself by putting on someone else's clothes. If Melisandre and Mance worked out the mission that could be part of the plan. And I don't know what happens if a glamoured Mance holds Stannis glamoured sword. Guess GRRM has to decide this.

- I have a feeling Mance plans some vengance on Jon. And Mance and Melisandre conspiring together while trying to double-cross each other at the same time IMHO makes a good reason for the letter.

@fassreiter: though I don't agree with you your sig is hilarious

PS: I'm a little disappointed nobody commented on my Theon-killing-Roose-avenging-Robb thought.