Mance Rayder, Melisandre and Ramsay Snow

[Melifeather]

And one more thing: You seem to be convinced that all spearwives are dead (Ramsay saw to that, you say). Why, the letter is the only "evidence" we have that they are dead! If Mance wrote the letter, partly as a code, the spearwives are not dead. So where comes this idea from that Mance made a cloak out of them? We see only one of them die. One is fighting against Bolton men, she might die too. One is in Ramsay's room and soon to be out of the window. Three of them went to get Mance. If they are attacked, Mance will be attacked to, so no secret cloak making. If they are killed or captured, so is Mance. If he made it all up, there was no fight. So the spearwives are o.k. No cloak making either.

I said I believed that they were all dead. But, they don't all have to be dead and there doesn't actually have to be a cloak made of actual skins. I've said several times that this part of the letter is "code".

[Mammothsbane]

I have already explained how the glamor was completed.

Because you think the glamour is in the ruby? But Melisandre comments on how hard it is to constantly keep the glamour running, and it is easier for her if Mance keeps Rattleshirt's clothes on.

But someone else pointed out that we have already read about other people who have successfully pulled off glamors.

None of which are Mance, or in any way connected to Mance. I'm still arguing that Mance can't make a glamour. He can't make himself look like Ramsay and Ramsay look like himself because he isn't a witch. He is not a sorcerer or a red priest. This is where I'm not really following your argument. Are you saying that the power was all in the ruby and Mance can make it anyone he wants?

Absolutely not. Just another R'hllor priestess. Why insert the information regarding the "red thread from Asshai" if it was unnecessary information?

It was only necessary insofar as to convey the rarity and significance of the healer's sacrifice. She gave up something very valuable to mend Mance's wounds. The Night's Watch didn't appreciate the sacrifice the free woman made because they were too stuck in their old vows and traditions. It's what makes Mance want to leave to be his own man.

I am not suggesting that Melisandre and Mance have a 20 year long ruse. I think she learned of his true identity in her fires. There is a missing conversation between Melisandre and Mance when she saved him from burning in the cage.

The purpose of the letter is to get Jon to leave the Wall. There could be two reasons for this. Either Melisandre knows Jon's true purpose and she wants to prevent it. Or two, she thinks she knows Jon's true purpose and is trying to make it happen. Both reasons have the same ending in that she wants to get Jon to Winterfell. She knows he's a man of honor and that it would take a lot to get him to forsake his vows.

The ruse was more directed at the OP.

Anyway, they want to get Jon to leave the Wall, but Mance knows Jon is too stuck in his vows to leave. He mentions it to Mel in his POV chapter. He knows the Night's Watch takes no part and Jon is an idealist. I don't think Jon leaving the Wall is a predictable consequence of the letter, especially when Jon knows that the author ("Ramsay") does not have his sister (legitimately the only reason he cared about Winterfell in the first place).

UPDATE:

I know it's crackpot, still.

- Ripping out Ramsay's tongue. If he is in the cage he needs to be silent. And wasn't Craster threatening to nail someone's tongue to a pole? That has to resurface somewhere.

Why? Craster said he ripped the tongue out of the envoy sent by Mance to meet at the Frostfangs. Craster doesn't like kings. That is kinda irrelevant at this point.

- Melisandre only seeing Snow. Ramsay Snow. Or Mance glamoured as Ramsay? I assume GRRM is throwing a curveball with the Melisandre seeing only Snow statement. And I don't want her to see the real Ramsay Snow because then Stannis is doomed.

She sees Snow (capitalized) when she looks for the Prince that was Promised. She sees snow when she's trying to see Stannis/Mance

- glamours. I don't have a clue how that works. Where's the f***ing manual? My assumption for this theory is that as long as Mance wears the ruby he can glamour himself by putting on someone else's clothes. If Melisandre and Mance worked out the mission that could be part of the plan. And I don't know what happens if a glamoured Mance holds Stannis glamoured sword. Guess GRRM has to decide this.

Damn right we need a manual. I still believe it's more in the sorcerer than the ruby.

- I have a feeling Mance plans some vengance on Jon. And Mance and Melisandre conspiring together while trying to double-cross each other at the same time IMHO makes a good reason for the letter.

I agree that Mance/Jon aren't as tight as most of us probably want. I don't think Mel is an enemy just yet. She just seems misguided and very bad at reading her fires.

PS: I'm a little disappointed nobody commented on my Theon-killing-Roose-avenging-Robb thought.

It would be cool, but hasn't Theon lost two fingers on his right hand? His index and ring fingers? Would probably be hard to shoot a bow.

[alienarea]

One more though about Mance overpowering Ramsay.

Follow my train of thought: Roose sends out Freys and Manderleys. Theon and "Arya" escape. About the same time, Roose leaves with the core of his troops. Ramsay and his remaining troops search for the spearwives, Mance hides in the crypts. Manderleys return with the Karstark heads. Ramsay gets overpowered. Most of the people in Winterfell don't want him anyway. Mance writes letter.

[fassreiter]

I said I believed that they were all dead. But, they don't all have to be dead and there doesn't actually have to be a cloak made of actual skins. I've said several times that this part of the letter is "code".

A code for what? If this is Mance telling Melisandre that he is fine while making Jon angry by insulting him so he will leave for Winterfell - why didn't he just go to the next post office to send the letter? Why does he go to Winterfell, why does he need to get involved with Ramsay at all? If it is a ruse, he can keep it up from the Wall. He could hide beneath Jon's bed and write the letter down there if this is all it takes.

[Melifeather]

Because you think the glamour is in the ruby? But Melisandre comments on how hard it is to constantly keep the glamour running, and it is easier for her if Mance keeps Rattleshirt's clothes on.

The part of the glamor that was hard for Melisandre was when Rattleshirt was burning.

If Mance was already a R'hllor convert, I am expecting that he has a little bit of knowledge also and that his cloak, which he still has, is significant.

None of which are Mance, or in any way connected to Mance. I'm still arguing that Mance can't make a glamour. He can't make himself look like Ramsay and Ramsay look like himself because he isn't a witch. He is not a sorcerer or a red priest. This is where I'm not really following your argument. Are you saying that the power was all in the ruby and Mance can make it anyone he wants?

Yes. I am saying the ruby in the cuff is powerful, but that you also need something of the person being glamored. I am saying Mance took off Rattleshirt's bones and donned Ramsay's clothes.

It was only necessary insofar as to convey the rarity and significance of the healer's sacrifice. She gave up something very valuable to mend Mance's wounds. The Night's Watch didn't appreciate the sacrifice the free woman made because they were too stuck in their old vows and traditions. It's what makes Mance want to leave to be his own man.

The story sounded weak to me because we learned earlier in the books that Mance was a wildling that was raised by the Night's Watch. I don't know how young he was supposed to have been when the Night's Watch got him, but I would think that anyone that was raised by the Night's Watch would be even more faithful to a brotherhood that was like his actual family.

The ruse was more directed at the OP.

Anyway, they want to get Jon to leave the Wall, but Mance knows Jon is too stuck in his vows to leave. He mentions it to Mel in his POV chapter. He knows the Night's Watch takes no part and Jon is an idealist. I don't think Jon leaving the Wall is a predictable consequence of the letter, especially when Jon knows that the author ("Ramsay") does not have his sister (legitimately the only reason he cared about Winterfell in the first place).

But near the end of A Dance with Dragons, that's exactly what Jon plans to do. He says the Night's Watch will go on to Hardhome, but that he is going to Winterfell. He is leaving. The letter writer was successful.

[Melifeather]

One more though about Mance overpowering Ramsay.

Follow my train of thought: Roose sends out Freys and Manderleys. Theon and "Arya" escape. About the same time, Roose leaves with the core of his troops. Ramsay and his remaining troops search for the spearwives, Mance hides in the crypts. Manderleys return with the Karstark heads. Ramsay gets overpowered. Most of the people in Winterfell don't want him anyway. Mance writes letter.

I think it was easier than that. At the time that Theon is making his escape, I think Mance was already drinking and talking with Ramsay. It could even be something as easy as Ramsay going off to take a piss and Mance following him. Ramsay is knocked out. Mance exchanges clothes, voile! Mance assumes Ramsay's identity. The only thing Ramsay would be aware of when he comes to is that someone hit him on the head and now he's wearing Mance's clothes. If Ramsay's men already see "Ramsay", then no matter what "Mance" says, it comes off as crazy talk. "Ramsay" instructs his men to grab "Mance" and put him in the cage.

A code for what? If this is Mance telling Melisandre that he is fine while making Jon angry by insulting him so he will leave for Winterfell - why didn't he just go to the next post office to send the letter? Why does he go to Winterfell, why does he need to get involved with Ramsay at all? If it is a ruse, he can keep it up from the Wall. He could hide beneath Jon's bed and write the letter down there if this is all it takes.

Because his life as Bael/Mance is in danger. If Ramsay and his men know that some of the spearwives helped Theon and "Arya" escape, the jig is up for Bael! He can't just hide. They'll look for him until they find him. He can't just kill Ramsay, because they would still keep looking for him. BUT, if he assumes Ramsay's identity, he can hide in plain site. That is also why I don't think Stannis has been defeated....yet.

I explained earlier up-thread that Melisandre and Mance have a plan for Jon once he reaches Westeros. It can go two ways: either Melisandre is helping Jon and is trying to make something happen, or she's trying to keep Jon from doing something that she saw in her fires. For example, when Jon gets to Winterfell, if Mance kills him there, he can place a sword over his crypt so that he cannot rise.

[fassreiter]

My theory that Mance isn't who he says he is, is based on his own story about the wood's witch that repaired his cloak with red-thread from Asshai. It may not suggest anything to you, but it does to me.

So everything he did, everything he said is fake, only the story about th red silk is true? He had the Thenns attack Castle Black because he wants to save the NW? What about Melisandre's behaviour towards him? In her own POV we see that she keeps from him what she saw about the wildlings at Hardhome and that she thinks the free folk are doomed. But she doesn't want to tell him because she is afraid to lose him. These are her own thoughts, we look right into her head. Does this suggest that she believes that Mance is on red raloo's side?

I am not saying that Melisandre and Mance had a previous relationship. On the contrary, I am saying there is a missing conversation. What did she say to Mance when she got him to agree to wear the glamor in the first place?

Probably something like: "Hey, wanna live a bit longer, you and your child?"

Why doesn't it make sense that Mance would be able to deceive Ramsay and assume his identity? One way to do this is to get everyone else to believe that he is Ramsay. Now everyone believes Mance is in a cage. If he killed Ramsay, he'd have to get rid of the body, plus find a place to hide. This way, he's hiding in plain site as Ramsay.

Why would he need to do all that in the first place if the intention is to get Jon to Winterfell?

There are many references to the Wall holding as long as the Night's Watch remains "true". Exactly when hasn't it been true? I say it isn't true now.

I say so too, which is why Mance left them, married a woman, fathered a child and wore a crown.

You can believe as you like, but your tone is bordering on insulting, and you know what they say: if you have to resort to insults, you don't have a leg to stand on.

Sorry, I don't want to be insulting, I just don't know where these ideas come from. There is so many evidence in the text against your theories and almost none to support it except for feelings and associations. The text states, for example, that glamours are very difficult to maintain. This is evidence against the theory that Mance would glamor someone at Winterfell. If you argue that it might still be possible is about as convincing as arguing that it could be possible that Mance might be able to fly or turn into a dragon. There is no evidence in the text that he could, and lots of evidence that he can't.

[Mammothsbane]

The part of the glamor that was hard for Melisandre was when Rattleshirt was burning.

If Mance was already a R'hllor convert, I am expecting that he has a little bit of knowledge also and that his cloak, which he still has, is significant.

Doesn't she also bring up how hard it is when she is talking to Mance and Jon? She thinks she had best make it appear effortless to make it seem like she has more power than she does. I'll try to find the quote about it.

Yes. I am saying the ruby in the cuff is powerful, but that you also need something of the person being glamored. I am saying Mance took off Rattleshirt's bones and donned Ramsay's clothes.

We'll just have to agree to disagree then. I still think Mel needs to consciously work to make the glamour appear. I also said that I don't think Mance looks like Rattleshirt in Winterfell - essentially, the glamour faded as he got further away.

But for arguments sake, let's say it's all in the ruby. If Mance puts the ruby on Ramsay and locks him in the cage, wouldn't there be "two Mance's" in Winterfell? The ruby can only be on one person, right? So if Mance is assuming the appearance of Ramsay, and Ramsay looks like Ramsay (or Ramsay looks like Mance and Mance looks like Mance) wouldn't people notice? Like, "Hey, that guy looks oddly familiar to the guy in the cage" kind of deal.

The story sounded weak to me because we learned earlier in the books that Mance was a wildling that was raised by the Night's Watch. I don't know how young he was supposed to have been when the Night's Watch got him, but I would think that anyone that was raised by the Night's Watch would be even more faithful to a brotherhood that was like his actual family.

I suppose. It's not uncommon for people to question authority though, especially the age at which he's abandons (I think Mance is in his teens/20's at that point)

But near the end of A Dance with Dragons, that's exactly what Jon plans to do. He says the Night's Watch will go on to Hardhome, but that he is going to Winterfell. He is leaving. The letter writer was successful.

It's true, but I don't think anyone could reasonably expect Jon to react that way. It's why everyone goes nuts in the Shieldhall when he says he's leaving. It's why Bowen & Co. decide to put their assassination plot into motion

[fassreiter]

Because his life as Bael/Mance is in danger. If Ramsay and his men know that some of the spearwives helped Theon and "Arya" escape, the jig is up for Bael! He can't just hide. They'll look for him until they find him. He can't just kill Ramsay, because they would still keep looking for him. BUT, if he assumes Ramsay's identity, he can hide in plain site. That is also why I don't think Stannis has been defeated....yet.

You don't understand what I mean. Why did Mance go to Winterfell? He could have written the pink letter to Jon without ever going there, the effect would be the same.

[Melifeather]

So everything he did, everything he said is fake, only the story about th red silk is true? He had the Thenns attack Castle Black because he wants to save the NW? What about Melisandre's behaviour towards him? In her own POV we see that she keeps from him what she saw about the wildlings at Hardhome and that she thinks the free folk are doomed. But she doesn't want to tell him because she is afraid to lose him. These are her own thoughts, we look right into her head. Does this suggest that she believes that Mance is on red raloo's side?

But, I don't think Mance wants to "save" the Night's Watch at all. I think long ago the "true" Night's Watch was overtaken by First Men that would rather align themselves with the Andals versus the Children. Mance, being raised by those people would be inclined to have similar goals. Melisandre doesn't want Jon to go to Hardhome because she wants him to go to Winterfell! She's expecting that pink letter, because that is part of her plan.

Probably something like: "Hey, wanna live a bit longer, you and your child?"

Well...there's always that! :lol:

Why would he need to do all that in the first place if the intention is to get Jon to Winterfell?

Not just get Jon to Winterfell, but to complete Melisandre's plans. He's either got to kill Jon and place his sword over his crypt so he cannot rise, or there's something good waiting for Jon in the crypts, like a crown or a sword. I'm not quite sure which it is yet.

I think Mance wanted the wildling force to break through the Wall. Jon prevented him from executing his plan. Melisandre had a different plan and Mance has decided to go through with it.

I say so too, which is why Mance left them, married a woman, fathered a child and wore a crown.

Sorry, I don't want to be insulting, I just don't know where these ideas come from. There is so many evidence in the text against your theories and almost none to support it except for feelings and associations. The text states, for example, that glamours are very difficult to maintain. This is evidence against the theory that Mance would glamor someone at Winterfell. If you argue that it might still be possible is about as convincing as arguing that it could be possible that Mance might be able to fly or turn into a dragon. There is no evidence in the text that he could, and lots of evidence that he can't.

I think there's plenty of text to support what I'm saying. I guess we'll just have to agree to disagree and we'll both find out the answers when the next book comes out.

Doesn't she also bring up how hard it is when she is talking to Mance and Jon? She thinks she had best make it appear effortless to make it seem like she has more power than she does. I'll try to find the quote about it.

We'll just have to agree to disagree then. I still think Mel needs to consciously work to make the glamour appear. I also said that I don't think Mance looks like Rattleshirt in Winterfell - essentially, the glamour faded as he got further away.

But for arguments sake, let's say it's all in the ruby. If Mance puts the ruby on Ramsay and locks him in the cage, wouldn't there be "two Mance's" in Winterfell? The ruby can only be on one person, right? So if Mance is assuming the appearance of Ramsay, and Ramsay looks like Ramsay (or Ramsay looks like Mance and Mance looks like Mance) wouldn't people notice? Like, "Hey, that guy looks oddly familiar to the guy in the cage" kind of deal.

No, Mance would have to be the one wearing the ruby cuff. I'm sure Rattleshirt couldn't figure out why nobody could see that he wasn't Mance. If Mance assumed Ramsay's identity first, he'd already have Ramsay's people about him. Then when Ramsay turns up wearing Mance's clothes, the men would expect to see Mance. Part of the glamor is magic, part is the actual clothes being worn, and the rest are people's expectations.

It's true, but I don't think anyone could reasonably expect Jon to react that way. It's why everyone goes nuts in the Shieldhall when he says he's leaving. It's why Bowen & Co. decide to put their assassination plot into motion

I thought people went nuts because they wanted to join with Jon?

You don't understand what I mean. Why did Mance go to Winterfell? He could have written the pink letter to Jon without ever going there, the effect would be the same.

Not if he's to assist Melisandre with her plan. Especially if it involves making sure he never leaves.

[fassreiter]

But, I don't think Mance wants to "save" the Night's Watch at all. I think long ago the "true" Night's Watch was overtaken by First Men that would rather align themselves with the Andals versus the Children. Mance, being raised by those people would be inclined to have similar goals. Melisandre doesn't want Jon to go to Hardhome because she wants him to go to Winterfell! She's expecting that pink letter, because that is part of her plan.

I meant that "untrue" NW you just invented. The untrue NW would be exactly what Mance attacked: Bowen Marsh, Alliser Thorne and those guys. Mance attacked them. How can he be on their side?

Not just get Jon to Winterfell, but to complete Melisandre's plans. He's either got to kill Jon and place his sword over his crypt so he cannot rise, or there's something good waiting for Jon in the crypts, like a crown or a sword. I'm not quite sure which it is yet.

What? Where do you take all that from?

I think Mance wanted the wildling force to break through the Wall. Jon prevented him from executing his plan. Melisandre had a different plan and Mance has decided to go through with it.

What exactly is their plan, please? What was Mance's plan if he was a followe of the red lot all the time - why would he want to bring wildlings through the Wall? Just because?

I think there's plenty of text to support what I'm saying. I guess we'll just have to agree to disagree and we'll both find out the answers when the next book comes out.

I am still waiting for any evidence. I think the Melisandre-POV provides enough evidence that Melisandre thinks that Mance is on the wildling's side and not on her side. Please answer to what I wrote about that in my previous post. How does that fit into your theory?

No, Mance would have to be the one wearing the ruby cuff. I'm sure Rattleshirt couldn't figure out why nobody could see that he wasn't Mance. If Mance assumed Ramsay's identity first, he'd already have Ramsay's people about him. Then when Ramsay turns up wearing Mance's clothes, the men would expect to see Mance. Part of the glamor is magic, part is the actual clothes being worn, and the rest are people's expectations.

Rattleshirt knew what he was doing when he was posing as Mance. For example, Rattleshirt has short hair. When he was brought out, he had to keep long hair from flying into his eyes all the time, and he did exactly that, smiling, never wondering where that hair came from all of a sudden. He knew he looked like Mance.

Not if he's to assist Melisandre with her plan. Especially if it involves making sure he never leaves.

What? I think you said the plan was to make Jon leave? And if Mance assisted Melisandre, he could have done that from Castle Black. Again: Why did Mance go to Winterfell if all he had to do was to write a fake letter?

[Melifeather]

I meant that "untrue" NW you just invented. The untrue NW would be exactly what Mance attacked: Bowen Marsh, Alliser Thorne and those guys. Mance attacked them. How can he be on their side?

It's true, I consider Bowen Marsh and Allisor Thorne part of the "untrue" since they are of Andal decent. But, I think Mance was raised by that same Andal influence. Very few men on the Wall swear to the old gods. When Jon came to the Wall, only he and Sam swore to the old gods. The rest of the new recruits swore to the Seven.

What? Where do you take all that from?

If you remember, Jon dreamt of the crypts. It seems to be a recurring dream, but he says he doesn't belong there. Who, exactly is sending this dream? Some readers have posited that this means that Jon has a destiny that he will discover something in the crypts. The Starks place iron swords on their dead, because its supposed to keep the spirits from rising. If Jon is Azor Ahai, he theoretically can not rise if a sword is placed on his crypt.

What exactly is their plan, please? What was Mance's plan if he was a followe of the red lot all the time - why would he want to bring wildlings through the Wall? Just because?

We don't know what Melisandre's plan is, nor Mance's. It isn't explicitly detailed.

If Mance has no further plans. Why do along with anybody else's plans? He has free reign of the area while glamored as Rattleshirt. What is preventing him from seeking out any of the wildlings and taking off with what he believes is his child and anyone else that would go with him? Surely, he could escape. But he doesn't, and he says as much to Melisandre. He says every day he thinks about removing the ruby, but that every day he doesn't. So, he is choosing to go along with her plans.

Melisandre wants to defeat the Great Other and bring an ever-lasting summer. I think that is Mance's goal also. Mance rounded up the wildlings as his own personal army, but he had to get them on the other side of the Wall. He may have even thought he might have to take over the Night's Watch, at least get rid of any that swore to the old gods.

I am still waiting for any evidence. I think the Melisandre-POV provides enough evidence that Melisandre thinks that Mance is on the wildling's side and not on her side. Please answer to what I wrote about that in my previous post. How does that fit into your theory?

Melisandre doesn't automatically trust people. She checks her fires everyday for any threat to herself. She knows who Mance is. She's checked him out. She has no reason to fear him. There's a line where she's "felt the warmth in the hollow of her throat as her ruby stirred at the closeness of its slave." When Mance pulled his dagger, it didn't even phase her. When he complains that a man should die with steel in his hands she says, "You shall have work for your steel soon enough. The enemy is moving, the true enemy...." Further down the page, after she thinks to herself that the wildlings are a lost people, destined to vanish, she thinks, "Those were not words he would wish to hear, though, and she could not risk losing him, not now." What is Mance to Melisandre? Why does she need him so bad?

Rattleshirt knew what he was doing when he was posing as Mance. For example, Rattleshirt has short hair. When he was brought out, he had to keep long hair from flying into his eyes all the time, and he did exactly that, smiling, never wondering where that hair came from all of a sudden. He knew he looked like Mance.

Maybe he only thought he looked like Mance. And for what reason would he even want to pretend to be Mance? Jon had made a comment when he was captured that he didn't look like himself without his bone armor.

What? I think you said the plan was to make Jon leave? And if Mance assisted Melisandre, he could have done that from Castle Black. Again: Why did Mance go to Winterfell if all he had to do was to write a fake letter?

I meant, make sure Jon doesn't leave Winterfell.

[fassreiter]

It's true, I consider Bowen Marsh and Allisor Thorne part of the "untrue" since they are of Andal decent. But, I think Mance was raised by that same Andal influence. Very few men on the Wall swear to the old gods. When Jon came to the Wall, only he and Sam swore to the old gods. The rest of the new recruits swore to the Seven.

Yes, I understood what you meant. My question is: How can Mance be on their side when we saw him making plan that would most likely kill them all?

If you remember, Jon dreamt of the crypts. It seems to be a recurring dream, but he says he doesn't belong there. Who, exactly is sending this dream? Some readers have posited that this means that Jon has a destiny that he will discover something in the crypts. The Starks place iron swords on their dead, because its supposed to keep the spirits from rising. If Jon is Azor Ahai, he theoretically can not rise if a sword is placed on his crypt.

Ghosts rising and Azor Ahai being reborn are two different things and so far Mance has not been involved with either theory. You are just making this conncection. I don't say there is evidence against this connection, but there is none in its favour either. I still don't see that Mance or Melisandre would want to stop AA from being reborn in any way. I don't even think Mance ever heard about AA.

We don't know what Melisandre's plan is, nor Mance's. It isn't explicitly detailed.

If Mance has no further plans. Why do along with anybody else's plans? He has free reign of the area while glamored as Rattleshirt. What is preventing him from seeking out any of the wildlings and taking off with what he believes is his child and anyone else that would go with him? Surely, he could escape. But he doesn't, and he says as much to Melisandre. He says every day he thinks about removing the ruby, but that every day he doesn't. So, he is choosing to go along with her plans.

He chooses to go along because there isn't much left to him now except for his kid and still being responsible for the wildlings in a way. You said it yourself: Everyday he thinks about dropping the glamour, which would mean going down fighting instead of being bored to death while wearing some idiot's bone shirt. If he had some plan that went back years ago (infiltrating the wildlings and all that), why does he even think abou suicide? He should be delighted to have Melisandre as his ally if your theory is true. Instead he hangs around moping and pissing off people by picking fights with Bowen Marsh and Jon.

Melisandre wants to defeat the Great Other and bring an ever-lasting summer. I think that is Mance's goal also. Mance rounded up the wildlings as his own personal army, but he had to get them on the other side of the Wall. He may have even thought he might have to take over the Night's Watch, at least get rid of any that swore to the old gods.

You think that. The text provides nothing in this respect. You might make the red silk out to be a hint, but as I think is indicated by what I wrote above, Mance is not working with Melisandre because they share a goal, he does it because he has no choice. You also agreed that they probably didn't meet before. So what does the red silk prove then? I still believe it is just a story about gaining personal freedom, and maybe it wasn't an easy decision to leave the NW, but after he did it, there is nothing to suggest he is still in league with Bowen Marsh and co. If the red cloak does not work as proof that Mance and Melisandre met years ago (and it doesn't), your whole theory falls apart. There is NO other evidence you can provide that Mance is doing or planning what you suggest. None. At. All.

Melisandre doesn't automatically trust people. She checks her fires everyday for any threat to herself. She knows who Mance is. She's checked him out. She has no reason to fear him. There's a line where she's "felt the warmth in the hollow of her throat as her ruby stirred at the closeness of its slave." When Mance pulled his dagger, it didn't even phase her. When he complains that a man should die with steel in his hands she says, "You shall have work for your steel soon enough. The enemy is moving, the true enemy...." Further down the page, after she thinks to herself that the wildlings are a lost people, destined to vanish, she thinks, "Those were not words he would wish to hear, though, and she could not risk losing him, not now." What is Mance to Melisandre? Why does she need him so bad?

She needs him to rescue Jon's sister so he would trust her. It's in the text. And the passages you just provided are all the evidence I need to take your theory apart, don't you see that? The passage proves there is no conncetion, no common goal between these two. You are making up some weird conncection that is not there. In this passage, Melisandre thinks that Mance is on the wildling's side. She is not afraid that he would stick that knife into her because she would have seen it. That doesn't mean she doesn't think he would do that. And why would she think that? Because they are enemies! She and her king smashed his army. She saved his life, but she still doesn't trust him, and he doesn't trust her. He had to give up everything he had, he lost his child and his wife, and he has to walk around in a disguise. Of cause he wants her dead. Your talk about eternal summer has nothing to do with Mance. His people were killed by the Others, we know that from Osha, Tormund, all those wildlings who fled in the prologue. Black Crow is wrong when he insists that there were no casualties on the side of the free folk.

Maybe he only thought he looked like Mance. And for what reason would he even want to pretend to be Mance? Jon had made a comment when he was captured that he didn't look like himself without his bone armor.

Maybe he only thought he looked like Mance? What are aou talking about? He did look like Mance, we saw he did. Jon confirmed it for us. And the reason is that Melisandre probably offered him a deal. They didn't tell him he was going to be burned. Most likely they told him he could lead the wildlings if he knelt to Stannis, while they would make the real Mance vanish. The comment Jon made has nothing to do with glamoring.

I meant, make sure Jon doesn't leave Winterfell.

Because you think that Jon can only be killed at Winterfell? Like, all Starks that have died far from Winterfell so far came back as ghosts? Ned and Robb, they are already floating around somewhere? Where does this theory come from even? There is nothing that indicates that people who are killed somewhere else come back as ghosts or reborn heroes. You are mixing up two different traditions.

[Melifeather]

Yes, I understood what you meant. My question is: How can Mance be on their side when we saw him making plan that would most likely kill them all?

We never get to see what Mance's plan fully executed would have been.

Ghosts rising and Azor Ahai being reborn are two different things and so far Mance has not been involved with either theory. You are just making this conncection. I don't say there is evidence against this connection, but there is none in its favour either. I still don't see that Mance or Melisandre would want to stop AA from being reborn in any way. I don't even think Mance ever heard about AA.

I never said Melisandre would want to stop AA. She's been deliberately trying to make prophecy come true by her positioning Stannis as AA and providing the fake Lightbringer. She saw something in her fires. Something that surprised her because she stayed up all night "to be certain". I am proposing a theory that makes sense to me. This could go two ways, but I am leaning towards that Melisandre views Jon as "the enemy". Just as she thinks Bloodraven and Bran are the Great Other's champions.

If the "red thread from Asshai" was meant as a hint that Mance is a convert of R'hllor, which I think it is, I understand that this is a leap, but I don't believe it's that far fetched.

He chooses to go along because there isn't much left to him now except for his kid and still being responsible for the wildlings in a way. You said it yourself: Everyday he thinks about dropping the glamour, which would mean going down fighting instead of being bored to death while wearing some idiot's bone shirt. If he had some plan that went back years ago (infiltrating the wildlings and all that), why does he even think abou suicide? He should be delighted to have Melisandre as his ally if your theory is true. Instead he hangs around moping and pissing off people by picking fights with Bowen Marsh and Jon.

I did not take that passage to mean that Mance was thinking of suicide. Melisandre just quickly examines that thought. He wasn't serious. He was just feeling guilty for hiding. While I don't think he's "delighted", I do think he is agreeing with Melisandre's plans...whatever those plans might be.

You think that. The text provides nothing in this respect. You might make the red silk out to be a hint, but as I think is indicated by what I wrote above, Mance is not working with Melisandre because they share a goal, he does it because he has no choice. You also agreed that they probably didn't meet before. So what does the red silk prove then? I still believe it is just a story about gaining personal freedom, and maybe it wasn't an easy decision to leave the NW, but after he did it, there is nothing to suggest he is still in league with Bowen Marsh and co. If the red cloak does not work as proof that Mance and Melisandre met years ago (and it doesn't), your whole theory falls apart. There is NO other evidence you can provide that Mance is doing or planning what you suggest. None. At. All.

The red thread, like I said above, is a jump, but I think its a hint that he is a convert.

My theory doesn't rely on Melisandre and Mance having met years ago. I never had that as part of my theory. There can be many people working towards a goal without interacting with each other. Moqorro and Benarro are both red priests and yet they don't contact Melisandre, but the reader doesn't doubt that they're all working R'hllor's will. Each person thinks they're doing R'hllor's will. They could be traveling along their own path, but when they cross like Mel and Mance, they decide to join forces. Although, I think Melisandre views Mance as her slave.

She needs him to rescue Jon's sister so he would trust her. It's in the text. And the passages you just provided are all the evidence I need to take your theory apart, don't you see that? The passage proves there is no conncetion, no common goal between these two. You are making up some weird conncection that is not there. In this passage, Melisandre thinks that Mance is on the wildling's side. She is not afraid that he would stick that knife into her because she would have seen it. That doesn't mean she doesn't think he would do that. And why would she think that? Because they are enemies! She and her king smashed his army. She saved his life, but she still doesn't trust him, and he doesn't trust her. He had to give up everything he had, he lost his child and his wife, and he has to walk around in a disguise. Of cause he wants her dead. Your talk about eternal summer has nothing to do with Mance. His people were killed by the Others, we know that from Osha, Tormund, all those wildlings who fled in the prologue. Black Crow is wrong when he insists that there were no casualties on the side of the free folk.

If Mance was supposed to save Jon's sister, why didn't he come back to the Wall with Alys?

Why do you think he went all the way to Winterfell?

Mel and Mance only needed Jon to trust them long enough to allow Mance to leave.

The text I provide does support what I'm saying. It's my interpretation. You just happen to interpret it a different way. GRRM likes to write it that way too. He likes layers of meanings.

Maybe he only thought he looked like Mance? What are aou talking about? He did look like Mance, we saw he did. Jon confirmed it for us. And the reason is that Melisandre probably offered him a deal. They didn't tell him he was going to be burned. Most likely they told him he could lead the wildlings if he knelt to Stannis, while they would make the real Mance vanish. The comment Jon made has nothing to do with glamoring.

I've been trying to find the passage that describes Rattleshirt walking to his death in the cage. It's a good thing I work for myself at home, because I didn't get any of my work done today because I spent all my time on this thread! LOL I truly am addicted! Here's the part about Jon seeing Rattleshirt without his bones on. To set this up, this is a Jon POV before he's LC, but after he came back from being with the wildlings. Ser Glendon dragged Jon from his bed:

"Four other men went with him when he left the room, but they were back soon enough with a captive, a small, sallow, battered man fettered hand and foot. He had a single eyebrow, a widow's peak, and a mustache that looked like a smear of dirt on his upper lip, but his face was swollen and mottled with bruises, and most of his front teeth had been knocked out.

The Eastwatch men threw the captive roughly to the floor. Lord Slynt frowned down at him. "is this the one you spoke of?"

The captive blinked yellow eyes. "Aye". Not until that instant did Jon recognize Rattleshirt. He is a different man without his armor, he thought."

Rattleshirt was missing his bones already at this point in the story. Way before Mance was even caught. I am assuming Melisandre intercepted them, just as I am assuming she has Davos's fingerbones.

Because you think that Jon can only be killed at Winterfell? Like, all Starks that have died far from Winterfell so far came back as ghosts? Ned and Robb, they are already floating around somewhere? Where does this theory come from even? There is nothing that indicates that people who are killed somewhere else come back as ghosts or reborn heroes. You are mixing up two different traditions.

If Jon is to fulfill some special purpose other than Azor Ahai, Melisandre would do whatever it took to stop him. If the Others are successul in breaching the Wall, then yes, we will see Ned and Robb come to life, unless their crypts are sealed with iron swords.

[Mammothsbane]

No, Mance would have to be the one wearing the ruby cuff. I'm sure Rattleshirt couldn't figure out why nobody could see that he wasn't Mance. If Mance assumed Ramsay's identity first, he'd already have Ramsay's people about him. Then when Ramsay turns up wearing Mance's clothes, the men would expect to see Mance. Part of the glamor is magic, part is the actual clothes being worn, and the rest are people's expectations.

Part of it is seeing what they want, however just wearing someone's clothes isn't enough for that. There was some glamour on Rattleshirt to make him look like Mance when he is burned. There wouldn't be anything to make Ramsay look like Mance. People "expecting to see" Mance wouldn't just not see him. I think you're taking that idea a little far - people see what they want when they cannot disprove something (like the miller's sons or Davos' head). When it's right in their face, unaltered, I'm sure they'd recognize Ramsay in Mance's clothes

I thought people went nuts because they wanted to join with Jon?

The Wildlings did. The NW members got rowdy because of Jon leaving.

I did not take that passage to mean that Mance was thinking of suicide. Melisandre just quickly examines that thought. He wasn't serious. He was just feeling guilty for hiding. While I don't think he's "delighted", I do think he is agreeing with Melisandre's plans...whatever those plans might be.

I don't know. For me, when I read the text, it implies that Mel was sending Mance on a simple recovery mission. Mel and Mance need to make Jon trust them for some future event, not this one. It was supposed to be an easy pick-up. Mance brings the girl back and Jon trusts them both. Jon doesn't trust Mel throughout aDwD. That's pretty evident in his chapters. Mel needed to earn his trust - getting Arya back was her way.

Also consider - we don't even know if Mel sent Mance to Winterfell in the first place. Mance could have made an executive decision to go when he saw the armies going there when he didn't find the "grey girl on a dying horse."

If Mance was supposed to save Jon's sister, why didn't he come back to the Wall with Alys?

Why do you think he went all the way to Winterfell?

Mel and Mance only needed Jon to trust them long enough to allow Mance to leave.

The text I provide does support what I'm saying. It's my interpretation. You just happen to interpret it a different way. GRRM likes to write it that way too. He likes layers of meanings.

Probably because she was coming from Karhold and not Winterfell. Like I said above: it's not even clear if Melisandre sent Mance to Winterfell. It's possible he went on his own.

I've been trying to find the passage that describes Rattleshirt walking to his death in the cage. It's a good thing I work for myself at home, because I didn't get any of my work done today because I spent all my time on this thread! LOL I truly am addicted! Here's the part about Jon seeing Rattleshirt without his bones on. To set this up, this is a Jon POV before he's LC, but after he came back from being with the wildlings. Ser Glendon dragged Jon from his bed:

"Four other men went with him when he left the room, but they were back soon enough with a captive, a small, sallow, battered man fettered hand and foot. He had a single eyebrow, a widow's peak, and a mustache that looked like a smear of dirt on his upper lip, but his face was swollen and mottled with bruises, and most of his front teeth had been knocked out.

The Eastwatch men threw the captive roughly to the floor. Lord Slynt frowned down at him. "is this the one you spoke of?"

The captive blinked yellow eyes. "Aye". Not until that instant did Jon recognize Rattleshirt. He is a different man without his armor, he thought."

Rattleshirt was missing his bones already at this point in the story. Way before Mance was even caught. I am assuming Melisandre intercepted them, just as I am assuming she has Davos's fingerbones.

I know what you mean about being addicted.. I'm supposed to be studying for a test! :D

Yeah but we don't know if this is glamoured Mance yet. They could have taken his armor when they took him prisoner.

Also, Davos' fingerbones? From the bottom of Blackwater Bay? How in the world...

[fassreiter]

Ok, let's stop this, it is pointless. You have your assumptions, and each one of those only works if you base them on other assumptions, each of which is based on more assumptions... I can't understand how you see them supported by the text, but apparently you really do. Please don't forget to add that these are your personal theories before spreading them over the board.

And yes, I also should have got more work done instead of writing back, it's a curse :cheers:

[all_Freys_must_die]

It would be cool, but hasn't Theon lost two fingers on his right hand? His index and ring fingers? Would probably be hard to shoot a bow.

no, just the pinkie on his right which leaves his right hand fairly sound. His left however, is missing the ring and forefinger so is almost useless. Nevertheless you need 2 hands to shoot a bow so those days are probably gone. Sword and shield he could manage if he ever gets his strength back

[all_Freys_must_die]

I always did wonder how Mance got himself captured so easily. This guy is supposed to be fairly talented. Talented enough to become KBTW. The spearwives told Theon 'it must be now' so Mance knew they were about to go. I think the signal was the song he started playing that Theon didn't recognize. Surely he's not just gonna sit around and wait for Hannibal Lector to make his coat and throw him in a cage. The 'crows' remark and the wanting Val and son does lean towards mance writing the letter but why would he give a shit about Reek? Just doesn't add up. Makes some sense tho.

Why are some people so sure that Mance cannot use the Ruby? He's been places man....

And Davos' fingerbones...seriously???

[Melifeather]

I always did wonder how Mance got himself captured so easily. This guy is supposed to be fairly talented. Talented enough to become KBTW. The spearwives told Theon 'it must be now' so Mance knew they were about to go. I think the signal was the song he started playing that Theon didn't recognize. Surely he's not just gonna sit around and wait for Hannibal Lector to make his coat and throw him in a cage. The 'crows' remark and the wanting Val and son does lean towards mance writing the letter but why would he give a shit about Reek? Just doesn't add up. Makes some sense tho.

Why are some people so sure that Mance cannot use the Ruby? He's been places man....

And Davos' fingerbones...seriously???

LOL - :rofl:

Aren't we all a sorry, hopeless lot? I've never geeked out over a series of books before and I've been an avid reader my whole life. I'll be 50 in December, and I hide my addiction from my friends so that they don't think I'm this pathetic weirdo!

About the fingerbones....Melisandre hinted that she had them. In the Melisandre POV in ADWD after Jon finds out that Rattleshirt is Mance, Mel says, "The bones help. The bones remember. The strongest glamors are built of such things. A dead man's boots, a hank of hair, a bag of fingerbones..."

Even the mention of the "hank of hair" is what many readers point to when they think Melisandre appeared as Ygritte to Jon. And also how she confused Ghost.

[evita mgfs]

LOL - :rofl:

Aren't we all a sorry, hopeless lot? I've never geeked out over a series of books before and I've been an avid reader my whole life. I'll be 50 in December, and I hide my addiction from my friends so that they don't think I'm this pathetic weirdo!

About the fingerbones....Melisandre hinted that she had them. In the Melisandre POV in ADWD after Jon finds out that Rattleshirt is Mance, Mel says, "The bones help. The bones remember. The strongest glamors are built of such things. A dead man's boots, a hank of hair, a bag of fingerbones..."

Even the mention of the "hank of hair" is what many readers point to when they think Melisandre appeared as Ygritte to Jon. And also how she confused Ghost.

Pathetic Weirdo! He he.

Me too! :cheers: