Mance Rayder, Melisandre and Ramsay Snow

[alienarea]

no, just the pinkie on his right which leaves his right hand fairly sound. His left however, is missing the ring and forefinger so is almost useless. Nevertheless you need 2 hands to shoot a bow so those days are probably gone. Sword and shield he could manage if he ever gets his strength back

I guess he could still shoot with what is left. He has practicsed a lot, almost like a Zen exercise. And all he needs is one shot for salvation.

And may I join the pathetic weirdos club?

[Zoso6]

I always though Mance wrote the letter and this is a very nice twist.

[alienarea]

Because you think the glamour is in the ruby? But Melisandre comments on how hard it is to constantly keep the glamour running, and it is easier for her if Mance keeps Rattleshirt's clothes on.

None of which are Mance, or in any way connected to Mance. I'm still arguing that Mance can't make a glamour. He can't make himself look like Ramsay and Ramsay look like himself because he isn't a witch. He is not a sorcerer or a red priest. This is where I'm not really following your argument. Are you saying that the power was all in the ruby and Mance can make it anyone he wants?

It was only necessary insofar as to convey the rarity and significance of the healer's sacrifice. She gave up something very valuable to mend Mance's wounds. The Night's Watch didn't appreciate the sacrifice the free woman made because they were too stuck in their old vows and traditions. It's what makes Mance want to leave to be his own man.

The ruse was more directed at the OP.

Anyway, they want to get Jon to leave the Wall, but Mance knows Jon is too stuck in his vows to leave. He mentions it to Mel in his POV chapter. He knows the Night's Watch takes no part and Jon is an idealist. I don't think Jon leaving the Wall is a predictable consequence of the letter, especially when Jon knows that the author ("Ramsay") does not have his sister (legitimately the only reason he cared about Winterfell in the first place).

UPDATE:

Why? Craster said he ripped the tongue out of the envoy sent by Mance to meet at the Frostfangs. Craster doesn't like kings. That is kinda irrelevant at this point.

She sees Snow (capitalized) when she looks for the Prince that was Promised. She sees snow when she's trying to see Stannis/Mance

Damn right we need a manual. I still believe it's more in the sorcerer than the ruby.

I agree that Mance/Jon aren't as tight as most of us probably want. I don't think Mel is an enemy just yet. She just seems misguided and very bad at reading her fires.

It would be cool, but hasn't Theon lost two fingers on his right hand? His index and ring fingers? Would probably be hard to shoot a bow.

About the glamour: Melisandre glamoured Stannis' sword so it glows, didn't she? The glamour would be in the sword or she would be working on that glamour in parallel when glamouring Mance. Therefore my take that the glamour is with Mance. This might be unintentional by Melisandre, but Mance is a clever guy. Maybe he played around on the way to Winterfell and discovered it still works, and with other people's clothes as well?

[Melifeather]

And may I join the pathetic weirdos club?

I would be honored. :blushing:

[alienarea]

I would be honored. :blushing:

Deal :blushing:

[Volantis]

I have a theory that Ramsay captured Mance and flayed the spearwives. Then he wrote a letter to Jon. I don't think anyone has thought of this before.

[Volantis]

The part of the glamor that was hard for Melisandre was when Rattleshirt was burning.

If Mance was already a R'hllor convert, I am expecting that he has a little bit of knowledge also and that his cloak, which he still has, is significant.

Yes. I am saying the ruby in the cuff is powerful, but that you also need something of the person being glamored. I am saying Mance took off Rattleshirt's bones and donned Ramsay's clothes.

The story sounded weak to me because we learned earlier in the books that Mance was a wildling that was raised by the Night's Watch. I don't know how young he was supposed to have been when the Night's Watch got him, but I would think that anyone that was raised by the Night's Watch would be even more faithful to a brotherhood that was like his actual family.

But near the end of A Dance with Dragons, that's exactly what Jon plans to do. He says the Night's Watch will go on to Hardhome, but that he is going to Winterfell. He is leaving. The letter writer was successful.

If that was the intention

[Volantis]

One more though about Mance overpowering Ramsay.

Follow my train of thought: Roose sends out Freys and Manderleys. Theon and "Arya" escape. About the same time, Roose leaves with the core of his troops. Ramsay and his remaining troops search for the spearwives, Mance hides in the crypts. Manderleys return with the Karstark heads. Ramsay gets overpowered. Most of the people in Winterfell don't want him anyway. Mance writes letter.

The Karstarks were for Bolton. Why would he want their head?

[Volantis]

Mance Rayder must be the world's quickest learner. It took Melisandre years to learn stuff like glamour, etc. Perhaps he had an online course

[fassreiter]

I have a theory that Ramsay captured Mance and flayed the spearwives. Then he wrote a letter to Jon. I don't think anyone has thought of this before.

No, this is new. But it could also always be bunnies, of course. Those carrots are suspicious, and those twitchy noses - I don't know. Even midgets, maybe. No way it's a demon, though, this is the first thing anyone would think of. Too easy.

[evita mgfs]

I guess he could still shoot with what is left. He has practicsed a lot, almost like a Zen exercise. And all he needs is one shot for salvation.

And may I join the pathetic weirdos club?

Yes - one good shot the same way wimpy Paris, the Prince of Troy, takes out the great war hero Achilles [who did slay Paris' older brother Hector], with a shot to his heel, not doubt. But Apollo, a god, guided Paris' arrow - so maybe Bran with his magic can guide Theon's arrow? Just a thought. :dunno:

[alienarea]

The Karstarks were for Bolton. Why would he want their head?

The Karstarks were traitors working for the Boltons. Manderley has to show some proof that Stannis was defeated. Since no one in Winterfell except of the Boltons knows on which side the Karstarks really stood, it will be believed that they died fighting for Stannis. And the Boltons won't tell because everyone loves treason but not the traitor. So the dead Karstarks make everyone happy.

[Melifeather]

Mance Rayder must be the world's quickest learner. It took Melisandre years to learn stuff like glamour, etc. Perhaps he had an online course

No, this is new. But it could also always be bunnies, of course. Those carrots are suspicious, and those twitchy noses - I don't know. Even midgets, maybe. No way it's a demon, though, this is the first thing anyone would think of. Too easy.

Ah, yes...I see this is all unconvincing to you two, but I just do not believe that the pink letter is simply what it appears to be. The ideas being presented in this thread are theories, not facts. We won't know for sure until the next book comes out.

The Gift chapter shows

Stannis is alive.

How do you explain that?

[fassreiter]

The Gift chapter shows

Stannis is alive.

How do you explain that?

Really? This is your argument? Even before the gift chapter came out, many people were convinced that Stannis would be alive and that Ramsay was either lying or had been deceived. I don't think anyone on this board ever believed for just a second that the letter was completely true. This was, for example, due to the scene in ADWD with Theon and Asha meeting. So if Stannis had been defeated, it would have been unlikely that Ramsay wouldn't know where his Reek was.

The gift chapter, by the way, does not provide any new information concerning Stannis being alive or dead because the chapter is earlier in time. GRRM has confirmed that.

I am not going to explain why Stannis can be alive and Ramsay could still have written the letter, it was already discussed at length in the very first pink-letter-thread on this board:

In short: I think most people agree that the most likely scenario is that Ramsay either lost the battle and wrote the letter as an act of desperation, or that he was led to believe that he won and wrote the letter in an act of triumphant idiocy. Most people assume that he knows what he knows from torturing some poor spearwife, many doubt that Mance was captured and believe him to be in the crypts (thus the Bael-reference in his name). For some time I believed into theories about the letter being a forgery, the letter being a coded message, the letter being part of a conspiration between Bolton the NW, the letter being a trick by Melisandre. But if you think about it, in the end all theories lack evidence and most of them are contradicted by the books. I never believed into the theory that Mance and Ramsay switched places, however. The reason is that this would be really bad writing on top of all the facts the book can provide against it. I already have a hard time believing that the part about Mance is a lie because there are many good arguments that Ramsay would not just make things up in his situation, but I am more than willing to assume these arguments don't exist. The problem with these crackpot theories is, it is easy to explain why Ramsay wrote the letter. There are more possibilities, of course, but they are horribly convoluted, and would take years to explain. I think this is one of the rare occasion where the famous razor applies. Do not forget that there are people who read the whole book and still wondered where Mance and Ramsay might have met because they never made the Abel=Mance-connection. Another problem is Jon's reaction to the letter. GRRM takes great efforts to make sure we don't know what he will do after he read it. He even confirmed in an interview that the two-hours-talk with Tormund was meant as a means to increase suspense. When Jon went and told the wildlings he was going to march on Winterfell, this was meant as a surprise to the readers, and even more surprising, but essentially logical, was the assassination. It would be incredibly cheap to write all that off and instead come up with some tricky secret magical-mythical super-plan to kill Jon, where people knew exactly how he would react. I find it much more tragic to see a bunch of Jon's friends and brothers kill him with tears in their eyes after he has fought to long to suppress his emotions about his family (Arya), and just when everything seemed fine and it looked like he would be able to go on as Lord Commander, that one mistake he made regarding his family (Arya) strikes back and force him to give up everything he tried so had to believe in. With the letter, everything fell down about him, I thought that was a brilliant piece of writing, and a story about the human heart struggling with itself, like GRR put it. I don't know, but a story about a witch and her magical slave who try to lure Jon to Winterfell so they can kill him and put a sword on his grave sounds incredibly cheap and boring in comparison, don't you agree?

[Melifeather]

Really? This is your argument? Even before the gift chapter came out, many people were convinced that Stannis would be alive and that Ramsay was either lying or had been deceived. I don't think anyone on this board ever believed for just a second that the letter was completely true. This was, for example, due to the scene in ADWD with Theon and Asha meeting. So if Stannis had been defeated, it would have been unlikely that Ramsay wouldn't know where his Reek was.

The gift chapter, by the way, does not provide any new information concerning Stannis being alive or dead because the chapter is earlier in time. GRRM has confirmed that.

I am not going to explain why Stannis can be alive and Ramsay could still have written the letter, it was already discussed at length in the very first pink-letter-thread on this board:

http://asoiaf.wester...he-letter-real/

In short: I think most people agree that the most likely scenario is that Ramsay either lost the battle and wrote the letter as an act of desperation, or that he was led to believe that he won and wrote the letter in an act of triumphant idiocy. Most people assume that he knows what he knows from torturing some poor spearwife, many doubt that Mance was captured and believe him to be in the crypts (thus the Bael-reference in his name). For some time I believed into theories about the letter being a forgery, the letter being a coded message, the letter being part of a conspiration between Bolton the NW, the letter being a trick by Melisandre. But if you think about it, in the end all theories lack evidence and most of them are contradicted by the books. I never believed into the theory that Mance and Ramsay switched places, however. The reason is that this would be really bad writing on top of all the facts the book can provide against it. I already have a hard time believing that the part about Mance is a lie because there are many good arguments that Ramsay would not just make things up in his situation, but I am more than willing to assume these arguments don't exist. The problem with these crackpot theories is, it is easy to explain why Ramsay wrote the letter. There are more possibilities, of course, but they are horribly convoluted, and would take years to explain. I think this is one of the rare occasion where the famous razor applies. Do not forget that there are people who read the whole book and still wondered where Mance and Ramsay might have met because they never made the Abel=Mance-connection. Another problem is Jon's reaction to the letter. GRRM takes great efforts to make sure we don't know what he will do after he read it. He even confirmed in an interview that the two-hours-talk with Tormund was meant as a means to increase suspense. When Jon went and told the wildlings he was going to march on Winterfell, this was meant as a surprise to the readers, and even more surprising, but essentially logical, was the assassination. It would be incredibly cheap to write all that off and instead come up with some tricky secret magical-mythical super-plan to kill Jon, where people knew exactly how he would react. I find it much more tragic to see a bunch of Jon's friends and brothers kill him with tears in their eyes after he has fought to long to suppress his emotions about his family (Arya), and just when everything seemed fine and it looked like he would be able to go on as Lord Commander, that one mistake he made regarding his family (Arya) strikes back and force him to give up everything he tried so had to believe in. With the letter, everything fell down about him, I thought that was a brilliant piece of writing, and a story about the human heart struggling with itself, like GRR put it. I don't know, but a story about a witch and her magical slave who try to lure Jon to Winterfell so they can kill him and put a sword on his grave sounds incredibly cheap and boring in comparison, don't you agree?

Having a "majority" believing in something would actually make it more likely to be wrong where GRRM is concerned. I just read in the last week that GRRM has said that for every 10 theories, that perhaps 1 was true. Go ahead and feel smug in your beliefs, I will continue to theorize as I find it enjoyable to try to guess what GRRM's up to.

It's a tired cliche when I read poster's who claim a particular outcome would be "bad writing", and I would think it would be highly offensive to GRRM. If you were another well-known author and then you said it was "bad writing", then I might give those words some consideration.

[Mammothsbane]

Ah, yes...I see this is all unconvincing to you two, but I just do not believe that the pink letter is simply what it appears to be. The ideas being presented in this thread are theories, not facts. We won't know for sure until the next book comes out.

The Gift chapter shows

Stannis is alive.

How do you explain that?

I think the gift chapter takes place before the battle chronologically.

[Melifeather]

I think the gift chapter takes place before the battle chronologically.

To me, that does not make sense. Why would you tell the outcome of Stannis's battle scene at the end of Dance? Has GRRM ever done that in the books up to this point?

[fassreiter]

To me, that does not make sense. Why would you tell the outcome of Stannis's battle scene at the end of Dance? Has GRRM ever done that in the books up to this point?

GRRM has confirmed that the chapter takes place before the battle. The letter does not reveal the true outcome. Most people suspected that the letter about Davos' death was fake, and they were right, of course. We are not to trust letters.

[Melifeather]

GRRM has confirmed that the chapter takes place before the battle. The letter does not reveal the true outcome. Most people suspected that the letter about Davos' death was fake, and they were right, of course. We are not to trust letters.

I understand that some of this books overlap, but he's never revealed a big outcome like this...which is why people come up with theories.

[fassreiter]

Having a "majority" believing in something would actually make it more likely to be wrong where GRRM is concerned. I just read in the last week that GRRM has said that for every 10 theories, that perhaps 1 was true. Go ahead and feel smug in your beliefs, I will continue to theorize as I find it enjoyable to try to guess what GRRM's up to.

It's a tired cliche when I read poster's who claim a particular outcome would be "bad writing", and I would think it would be highly offensive to GRRM. If you were another well-known author and then you said it was "bad writing", then I might give those words some consideration.

There are endless examples for widely accepted theories about certain plot lines that proved to be true, Davos being alive, for example. GRRM was talking about crackpot in that quote. And I guess we just have to disagree about bad writing. Just one more thing:

if your theory is true, and Mance was sent to Winterfell because of a secret plan of Melisandre's, this means he never meant to rescue Arya because when he left, she was not supposed to be at Winterfell. Now he arrives at Winterfell, and look and behold, by shere coincidence, Arya is there, too! This is why he can save her (or pretend to save) her while doing something else entirely, whatever that is. So GRRM would have essentially written his story based on a very unlikely coincidence in-story. And yes, if that is not bad writing, I don't know what is. What do you consider bad writing, by the way? Please give me an example so I know what you are willing to accept. I am not an author, but I don't think this is what counts when it comes to opinions about literary productions. Don't you think there are many examples of horrible fantasy out there? Do you, for example, enjoy to read about sparkly vampires? There is a line, at least in my books.