Mance Rayder, Melisandre and Ramsay Snow

[fassreiter]

I understand that some of this books overlap, but he's never revealed a big outcome like this...which is why people come up with theories.

But he didn't reveal it.

[Melifeather]

There are endless examples for widely accepted theories about certain plot lines that proved to be true, Davos being alive, for example. GRRM was talking about crackpot in that quote. And I guess we just have to disagree about bad writing. Just one more thing:

if your theory is true, and Mance was sent to Winterfell because of a secret plan of Melisandre's, this means he never meant to rescue Arya because when he left, she was not supposed to be at Winterfell. Now he arrives at Winterfell, and look and behold, by shere coincidence, Arya is there, too! This is why he can save her (or pretend to save) her while doing something else entirely, whatever that is. So GRRM would have essentially written his story based on a very unlikely coincidence in-story. And yes, if that is not bad writing, I don't know what is. What do you consider bad writing, by the way? Please give me an example so I know what you are willing to accept. I am not an author, but I don't think this is what counts when it comes to opinions about literary productions. Don't you think there are many examples of horrible fantasy out there? Do you, for example, enjoy to read about sparkly vampires? There is a line, at least in my books.

I am not a writer, but I have been a life-long reading enthusiast since I was about 8 and I'm nearly 50 now. I've read a wide genre of books, but I am definitely not a fan of the "sparkly vampires". Those books are geared towards teenagers, and they may have appealed to me when I was a teenager, but I'm middle-aged now with a more sophisticated appetite. I think Martin's books appeal to me because I too don't see the world in terms of black and white. The world truly is 50 shades of grey and I don't mean that in terms of that particular book with the same name. I just mean that no one is completely good nor bad. It all depends on which side you're on. My social views are liberal and I think that's why I enjoy his books, because when you're reading each character's POV, you understand them and may even root for them even if they're not the traditional hero or heroine. But, I'm not qualified to judge someone's work and say something is "bad writing" if the story goes in a direction that I don't agree with.

Back to your question regarding Arya. Mance leaves the Wall before Alys arrives. When Alys reaches the Wall and Mance doesn't return, Jon wonders where Mance got off to. When he gets the pink letter, he begins to think the Boltons might actually have Arya.

On Mance's end, he may or may not have met up with Alys. I don't think it matters, because I think he planned to go all the way to Winterfell from the very beginning. Otherwise, why would he have planned his Bael costume in advance? That is why he asked for the six spearwives, because he said he had a "ploy" in mind. We all know the ploy was to play Bael again at Winterfell. If Mance and Melisandre thought the girl on the horse was Arya, why did they plan for Winterfell?

[Ice Turtle]

If Mance and Melisandre thought the girl on the horse was Arya, why did they plan for Winterfell?

For the similar reason people do things they do to stop the prophecies from happening. They think that they can change or ensure the future they see. They don't believe it will happen if they don't help it a little. If Mel believed Stan is AA and will win no matter what, she wouldn't need to do anything. She sent Mance to make sure there will be girl on grey horse running from Ramsay.

[fassreiter]

I am not a writer, but I have been a life-long reading enthusiast since I was about 8 and I'm nearly 50 now. I've read a wide genre of books, but I am definitely not a fan of the "sparkly vampires". Those books are geared towards teenagers, and they may have appealed to me when I was a teenager, but I'm middle-aged now with a more sophisticated appetite. I think Martin's books appeal to me because I too don't see the world in terms of black and white. The world truly is 50 shades of grey and I don't mean that in terms of that particular book with the same name. I just mean that no one is completely good nor bad. It all depends on which side you're on. My social views are liberal and I think that's why I enjoy his books, because when you're reading each character's POV, you understand them and may even root for them even if they're not the traditional hero or heroine.

So far we agree. But according to your logic, there is no bad writing, there are just things you don't like. I don't agree with that. I think a lot of stuff is badly written, is written in order to appeal to a common taste and is written to make a lot of money. That doesn't mean an accomplished author does only write good or bad things. There are different aspects to each work. I love and adore many artists and writers with all my heart, but there are still parts of their work that are not as good as the rest. A writer might write ten wonderful books, but the next one sucks. Or he might write one single book, and it is perfectly well written, except for one chapter that sucks. Of course not all parts of ADWD are perfect! A lot of it is well written, but there are also bad chapters, which are too long, unnessecarily convoluted, or redundant. Part of being a fan is being able to accept criticism of a writer's work. You will find that many people, for example, think that the invention of Maggy the Frog in Cersei's story line was a cheap retcon, and that her POV-chapters are bad writing compared to her appearance in the first three books.

But, I'm not qualified to judge someone's work and say something is "bad writing" if the story goes in a direction that I don't agree with.

Nice try. I can give you an awful lot of examples for chapters in ADWD that went into a direction I didn't like at all, and never considered bad writing. I had to cope with a lot of things in my favourite books already, and most of it was beautifully written. I can handle that perfectly well, as long as it isn't a cheap cop out. For example: Mance Rayder is, in fact, my favourite character. When he was burned alive, I was so pissed I almost stopped reading. I only found the Melisandre-POV by accident, and of course I was glad he was still there. But I consider that glamour-trick as one of the worst pieces of writing in the whole series. Then again, Catelyn was also one of my favourite characters. When I talk to some of my friends who studied literature and I want to point out one of the best written scenes I ever read in my life, I always refer to the Red Wedding.

Back to your question regarding Arya. Mance leaves the Wall before Alys arrives. When Alys reaches the Wall and Mance doesn't return, Jon wonders where Mance got off to. When he gets the pink letter, he begins to think the Boltons might actually have Arya.

On Mance's end, he may or may not have met up with Alys. I don't think it matters, because I think he planned to go all the way to Winterfell from the very beginning. Otherwise, why would he have planned his Bael costume in advance? That is why he asked for the six spearwives, because he said he had a "ploy" in mind. We all know the ploy was to play Bael again at Winterfell. If Mance and Melisandre thought the girl on the horse was Arya, why did they plan for Winterfell?

It wasn't a question. I know the argument. According to your logic, Mance went to Winterfell on his own account, and Arya went to Winterfell on the Bolton's account, and Mance never expected to meet her there. But then, both of them end up at Winterfell, and somehow Mance does exactly what was agreed upon before (rescuing her), but this is just a coincidence because he never planned to do it. That would mean that the rescue mission at Winterfell was totally arbitrary! That it was just put on top of some convoluted scheme by GRRM as a red herring, and that he gave a shit about plot consitency: What are the odds that Mance agrees to rescue Arya, sets out to a ruin of a castle, which at that very moment is coincidentally rebuilt by the guy who has Arya captive, so that in the end Mance coincidentally does what he agreed upon, which he wouldn't have done otherwise? This plot would lack logic, substance and motivation. I would call such a plot bad writing. Only I don't think it is bad writing because I don't think there was a secret plan. Mance and the spearwives planned to invade a castle, yes. But they didn't know it was Winterfell. The reason they went to Winterfell is because Arya was there. If Arya had been at the Dreadfort, they would have gone to the Dreadfort.

[Mammothsbane]

To me, that does not make sense. Why would you tell the outcome of Stannis's battle scene at the end of Dance? Has GRRM ever done that in the books up to this point?

He hasn't done it before, but the gift chapter shows Stannis discussing the Manderly/Frey contingent that is riding out to meet him. If this had taken place after the battle, he wouldn't be discussing these two forces as he'd have already defeated them.

Back to your question regarding Arya. Mance leaves the Wall before Alys arrives. When Alys reaches the Wall and Mance doesn't return, Jon wonders where Mance got off to. When he gets the pink letter, he begins to think the Boltons might actually have Arya.

On Mance's end, he may or may not have met up with Alys. I don't think it matters, because I think he planned to go all the way to Winterfell from the very beginning. Otherwise, why would he have planned his Bael costume in advance? That is why he asked for the six spearwives, because he said he had a "ploy" in mind. We all know the ploy was to play Bael again at Winterfell. If Mance and Melisandre thought the girl on the horse was Arya, why did they plan for Winterfell?

I don't think Jon believes the Bolton's have Arya because, if they did, why would they demand "the bride" back? That wouldn't make any sense.

I think Mance planned to go to Winterfell on his own. I think Mel's POV makes it perfectly clear that she believes the girl on the horse (Alys) to be Arya Stark and that, in order to earn Jon's trust, sends Mance to retrieve her. It is also possible that Mance met up with Alys, learned that she wasn't Arya, and went for Winterfell on his own accord and simply brought the spearwives as backup just in case. Another possibility is that Mance went to Winterfell, knew he was going from the beginning (in essence ignoring Mel's orders) and has some other, yet unknown, plan in Winterfell.

[Melifeather]

It wasn't a question. I know the argument. According to your logic, Mance went to Winterfell on his own account, and Arya went to Winterfell on the Bolton's account, and Mance never expected to meet her there. But then, both of them end up at Winterfell, and somehow Mance does exactly what was agreed upon before (rescuing her), but this is just a coincidence because he never planned to do it. That would mean that the rescue mission at Winterfell was totally arbitrary! That it was just put on top of some convoluted scheme by GRRM as a red herring, and that he gave a shit about plot consitency: What are the odds that Mance agrees to rescue Arya, sets out to a ruin of a castle, which at that very moment is coincidentally rebuilt by the guy who has Arya captive, so that in the end Mance coincidentally does what he agreed upon, which he wouldn't have done otherwise? This plot would lack logic, substance and motivation. I would call such a plot bad writing. Only I don't think it is bad writing because I don't think there was a secret plan. Mance and the spearwives planned to invade a castle, yes. But they didn't know it was Winterfell. The reason they went to Winterfell is because Arya was there. If Arya had been at the Dreadfort, they would have gone to the Dreadfort.

WHAAA??? LOL

That is not how I see it. I think Mance went to Winterfell on purpose, that it was his and Melisandre's plan all along. They knew "Arya" wasn't at Winterfell. They discussed the route "Arya" (Alys) was taking to the Wall. I don't think either of them knew about Jeyne/Arya.

He hasn't done it before, but the gift chapter shows Stannis discussing the Manderly/Frey contingent that is riding out to meet him. If this had taken place after the battle, he wouldn't be discussing these two forces as he'd have already defeated them.

The timeline for the last two published books run parallel, but I can't think of a major occurrance like learning a character is dead before he's actually dead, unless you count the House of the Undying and the Red Wedding. The only things we know for sure about the pink letter is that Stannis is not defeated, he hasn't even met the Manderley/Frey forces, and "Arya" (Jeyne) and Theon are now with Stannis. The rest is open to speculation.

I don't think Jon believes the Bolton's have Arya because, if they did, why would they demand "the bride" back? That wouldn't make any sense.

Correct, but asking for his" bride back" must have caused Jon to review what he does know, because Alys was no where near Winterfell, so he had to be wondering who the "bride" mentioned in the pink letter was.

I think Mance planned to go to Winterfell on his own. I think Mel's POV makes it perfectly clear that she believes the girl on the horse (Alys) to be Arya Stark and that, in order to earn Jon's trust, sends Mance to retrieve her. It is also possible that Mance met up with Alys, learned that she wasn't Arya, and went for Winterfell on his own accord and simply brought the spearwives as backup just in case. Another possibility is that Mance went to Winterfell, knew he was going from the beginning (in essence ignoring Mel's orders) and has some other, yet unknown, plan in Winterfell.

That's one theory, but my theory includes that Mance did not ignore Melisandre's orders. I believe they have some yet unknown plan that required getting Mance to Winterfell. I think they were capitalizing on the Alys situation to gain Jon's trust just long enough to allow Mance to leave.

[Mammothsbane]

The timeline for the last two published books run parallel, but I can't think of a major occurrance like learning a character is dead before he's actually dead, unless you count the House of the Undying and the Red Wedding. The only things we know for sure about the pink letter is that Stannis is not defeated, he hasn't even met the Manderley/Frey forces, and "Arya" (Jeyne) and Theon are now with Stannis. The rest is open to speculation.

But that would mean literally everything in the Pink Letter is false, and Jon said specifically to Tormund that "there is truth in this" (referring to the letter). I think there is a little "Pulp Fiction" style "out of order" storytelling happening. It would not be the first time we've "heard about" someone dying from a secondary source (like Berric) rather than seeing it happen (like Robb from Cat's POV). And you're right, the don't learn of character deaths "offscreen" (usually) which is why most people think that the part about Stannis is false (whereas everything else is true, i.e. Ramsay has Stannis' sword and has Mance locked in a cage).

The timeline makes more sense if you consider that the battle has happened somewhere between the gift chapter and Jon's last POV in Dance, with only some info in the letter true and some based on misinformation. Personally, I like the "Trojan Horse" idea of Manderly/Frey riding out to meet Stannis, Manderly's backstab Freys, return with Stannis' sword and some of Stannis' men in Frey gear (proof of victory), tell Ramsay all about it, and bring some heads (Karstark/random Frey/Stannis men slain in battle). Then, Ramsay writes the letter feeling all badass to try to intimidate Jon into staying quiet about Jeyne not being Arya (which is why she's referred to as "my bride" and not "Arya" since Jon will see through the ruse).

Correct, but asking for his" bride back" must have caused Jon to review what he does know, because Alys was no where near Winterfell, so he had to be wondering who the "bride" mentioned in the pink letter was.

I think Jon knows "my bride" is a reference to Jeyne/Arya

That's one theory, but my theory includes that Mance did not ignore Melisandre's orders. I believe they have some yet unknown plan that required getting Mance to Winterfell. I think they were capitalizing on the Alys situation to gain Jon's trust just long enough to allow Mance to leave.

Maybe. I'm not saying it's not possible, I'm just saying that based on Mel's POV, she didn't really trust Mance, she didn't seem to have known him long, and she seemed sure that Alys was Arya. She also never seems to think about Winterfell. It just seems like a lot to leave out of a POV chapter.

[redriver]

I'll put it as plainly as possible.

Mance set out to rescue "Arya".His plan changed on the road,as I have shown in the Hooded Man thread.

[fassreiter]

WHAAA??? LOL

That is not how I see it. I think Mance went to Winterfell on purpose, that it was his and Melisandre's plan all along. They knew "Arya" wasn't at Winterfell. They discussed the route "Arya" (Alys) was taking to the Wall. I don't think either of them knew about Jeyne/Arya.

Are you sure you understand my point? Don't you see that writing it this way would be silly? If Jon had not sent Mance to rescue Arya, alright, then it would work as a narrative. But a narrative that depends on just some very, very unlikely coincidence is beyond GRRM. See what it does to the story:

1. Jon says to Mance he can go save his sister - ok.

2. Mance announces loud and clear he has a secret plan other than to rescue Arya - not very likely.

3. No one asks what the plan is - not very likely.

4. Mance goes to Winterfell - ok.

5. At the same time, but completely unrelated and coincidentally, Bolton goes to Winterfell with Arya - not very likely.

6. Mance has a secret plan, but instead of going through with it, he attempts to rescue Arya for no apparent reason - not very likely (please note that if he never intended to get Arya back to the Wall, he has no reason to save her now, because if he didn't care what Jon thought about it, why should he rescue Arya?)

Correct, but asking for his" bride back" must have caused Jon to review what he does know, because Alys was no where near Winterfell, so he had to be wondering who the "bride" mentioned in the pink letter was.

Jon thinks the bride is Arya. It is in his POV.

That's one theory, but my theory includes that Mance did not ignore Melisandre's orders. I believe they have some yet unknown plan that required getting Mance to Winterfell. I think they were capitalizing on the Alys situation to gain Jon's trust just long enough to allow Mance to leave.

Melisandre thought Alys was Arya. It is in her own POV.

[alienarea]

IIRC Mance talks about "a little ploy of his". Of course GRRM left it ambigious whether that is rescuing "Arya" or something else.

I put my money on something else since Mance has been to Winterfell before. Maybe he is looking for something in the crypts - or bringing something back there?

When Ygritte talks that Mance opened the graves (in the Frostfangs?) and connects it to the reappearance of the White Walkers, maybe she is wrong and he released Stark ghosts like Theon saw - the ones slain with the Night King? And maybe the bones of the Night King have to be returned to Winterfell?

And does any of this connect to Ned's bones?

[Stannis the Wight]

I think Alliser Thorne had something to do with that letter. Just my suspicion.

[Melifeather]

But that would mean literally everything in the Pink Letter is false, and Jon said specifically to Tormund that "there is truth in this" (referring to the letter). I think there is a little "Pulp Fiction" style "out of order" storytelling happening. It would not be the first time we've "heard about" someone dying from a secondary source (like Berric) rather than seeing it happen (like Robb from Cat's POV). And you're right, the don't learn of character deaths "offscreen" (usually) which is why most people think that the part about Stannis is false (whereas everything else is true, i.e. Ramsay has Stannis' sword and has Mance locked in a cage).

The timeline makes more sense if you consider that the battle has happened somewhere between the gift chapter and Jon's last POV in Dance, with only some info in the letter true and some based on misinformation. Personally, I like the "Trojan Horse" idea of Manderly/Frey riding out to meet Stannis, Manderly's backstab Freys, return with Stannis' sword and some of Stannis' men in Frey gear (proof of victory), tell Ramsay all about it, and bring some heads (Karstark/random Frey/Stannis men slain in battle). Then, Ramsay writes the letter feeling all badass to try to intimidate Jon into staying quiet about Jeyne not being Arya (which is why she's referred to as "my bride" and not "Arya" since Jon will see through the ruse).

Ironically, I was a big promoter of the "Trojan Horse" theory from the get go under my previous alias, Melisandra. However, in just the last month I changed my opinions, based on hints in the text, that the letter writer was Mance.

I think Jon knows "my bride" is a reference to Jeyne/Arya

Jon has no idea that Jeyne has assumed Arya's identity. How could he? Because of Melisandre, he thought Arya was on her way to the Wall until it turned out she was Alys. The pink letter suggested to him that there might be another Arya, but he really has no idea as to whether or not it actually is his sister, or another imposter.

Maybe. I'm not saying it's not possible, I'm just saying that based on Mel's POV, she didn't really trust Mance, she didn't seem to have known him long, and she seemed sure that Alys was Arya. She also never seems to think about Winterfell. It just seems like a lot to leave out of a POV chapter.

In the Melisandre POV she also refers to Mance as a slave (to R'hllor).

I'll put it as plainly as possible.

Mance set out to rescue "Arya".His plan changed on the road,as I have shown in the Hooded Man thread.

As readers, we get invested in our own ideas and tend to disregard evidence to the contrary. But, it's a mistake to think you've proven something.

Are you sure you understand my point? Don't you see that writing it this way would be silly? If Jon had not sent Mance to rescue Arya, alright, then it would work as a narrative. But a narrative that depends on just some very, very unlikely coincidence is beyond GRRM. See what it does to the story:

1. Jon says to Mance he can go save his sister - ok.

2. Mance announces loud and clear he has a secret plan other than to rescue Arya - not very likely. - (Mance just says he has a ploy in mind and asks for the 6 spearwives. He never says he has a secret plan.)

3. No one asks what the plan is - not very likely. (Jon thinks Mance's plan is to save his sister.)

4. Mance goes to Winterfell - ok. (Jon thought as soon as Arya is saved, that Mance would come back. When Alys arrives without Mance, Jon wonders where he went.)

5. At the same time, but completely unrelated and coincidentally, Bolton goes to Winterfell with Arya - not very likely. (Why are you inserting this part? It has nothing to do with Jon at the Wall.)

6. Mance has a secret plan, but instead of going through with it, he attempts to rescue Arya for no apparent reason - not very likely (please note that if he never intended to get Arya back to the Wall, he has no reason to save her now, because if he didn't care what Jon thought about it, why should he rescue Arya?) (Mance didn't know that there was another "Arya" until he arrived at Winterfell. Furthermore, he knows it's not Arya, since he's been to Winterfell before.)

Jon thinks the bride is Arya. It is in his POV. (He cannot be sure it's Arya. He thinks it may be Arya because the Boltons are saying it's Arya, but surely after Alys showed up, he cannot be certain.)

Melisandre thought Alys was Arya. It is in her own POV. (I am not denying that point)

IIRC Mance talks about "a little ploy of his". Of course GRRM left it ambigious whether that is rescuing "Arya" or something else.

Thank you!

I put my money on something else since Mance has been to Winterfell before. Maybe he is looking for something in the crypts - or bringing something back there?

When Ygritte talks that Mance opened the graves (in the Frostfangs?) and connects it to the reappearance of the White Walkers, maybe she is wrong and he released Stark ghosts like Theon saw - the ones slain with the Night King? And maybe the bones of the Night King have to be returned to Winterfell?

And does any of this connect to Ned's bones?

Interesting thoughts. You should bring this discussion to the Heresy thread.

[fassreiter]

Ok. One more time. I see you really don't get my meaning, but I will try once more. Please (please!) note that I am arguing from the POV of a writer/a reader here, ok:

1. Jon says to Mance he can go save his sister - ok.

So this is the basis of the plot, ok? Let's move on from here, not asking about internal logic, but let's just follow the plot, ok? So let's keep in mind that Mance and Jon had the agreement that Mance goes and rescues his sister. Now we come to the next point, but please don't forget it's about the overall plotline here, ok?

2. Mance announces loud and clear he has a secret plan other than to rescue Arya - not very likely. - (Mance just says he has a ploy in mind and asks for the 6 spearwives. He never says he has a secret plan.)

Again, arguing from the POV of the overall plot: If there really was a secret plan it would be stupid for a writer to insert the information that there was a secret plan BY HAVING THE ONE ACTING OUT THE SECRET PLAN SAY IT!!!! For God's sake! What kind of a conspirator is this who announces that he has "ploys" in mind if he actually means SECRET ploys? I know he never said it was a "secret" ploy, but he had to be aware that people would ask him!!!!!! What was he going to say then?

3. No one asks what the plan is - not very likely. (Jon thinks Mance's plan is to save his sister.)

Again, let's keep in mind that if your theory is true, we are talking about a ploy that has right now been announced, but no one asks what it is. But if Jon thinks Mance's plan is to save his sister by going to Long Lake, and if, as you argued, it is suspicious that Mance would ask for girls if all he had to do was go to Long Lake, WHY DOES JON NOT ASK WHAT HE NEEDS THE GIRLS FOR??????

Or, more important, why doesn't Jon ASK WHAT DOES MANCE NEED A "PLOY" FOR if he is going to pick her up at Long Lake??????????????

See what I mean?

4. Mance goes to Winterfell - ok. (Jon thought as soon as Arya is saved, that Mance would come back. When Alys arrives without Mance, Jon wonders where he went.)

Yes, I said ok to that because I meant this part was alright within the plot.

5. At the same time, but completely unrelated and coincidentally, Bolton goes to Winterfell with Arya - not very likely. (Why are you inserting this part? It has nothing to do with Jon at the Wall.)

Because it is an element of the plot that is purely driven by inconsistent coincidence: two things happening without being related: Bolton comes to Winterfell. Mance comes to Winterfell. Both occurences are not related, according to your logic. But then, the most important plot development stems from this "accident": everything we saw in Theon's chapters would therefore be based on a mere coincidence. This is not impossible, of course, in-story. But from a narratological POV, it is BAD WRITING!!!!!

6. Mance has a secret plan, but instead of going through with it, he attempts to rescue Arya for no apparent reason - not very likely (please note that if he never intended to get Arya back to the Wall, he has no reason to save her now, because if he didn't care what Jon thought about it, why should he rescue Arya?) (Mance didn't know that there was another "Arya" until he arrived at Winterfell. Furthermore, he knows it's not Arya, since he's been to Winterfell before.)

Again, try to keep up, ok? I am still talking about the plot as a whole concerning Mance, Jon and Winterfell. So please try to understand what I said. My question is: WHY DOES MANCE SAVE A GIRL AT WINTERFELL? He has absolutely no reason to do that if your theory is true. It doesn't matter if he knows that Arya is not Arya. It doesn't matter if he knew before that she would be there or not. The question is why he doesn't go through with his secret plan and instead rescues her?

And now let's look at that plot from a narratological point of view again: If your theory is right, then Mance Rayder would develop a secret plan, announce that he has a ploy in mind (which would, if it would indeed, as you claim, contradict the Arya-rescue-plan, serve as an open admission that the plan WAS secret, which is unlikely because if it openly contradicted the Arya-plan, Jon would have asked questions!), then leaves for Winterfell, and although he wants to do something we have no idea about, he does exactly what he agreed to do in front of Jon. According to your theory, this is NOT due to plot consistency but due to a big COINCIDENCE: Mance is not at Winterfell because Arya is there, he is at Winterfell because there is something he needs to do. But, because coincidentally Arya arrives at Winterfell at the same time, he JUST happens to do exactly what he agreed to do. Not because it would directly refer to the scene where he and Jon agreed to the Arya-rescue-plan! No, we don't know his reasons, but surely they can't be related to the fact that he promised Jon to rescue her. There must be some secret plan and the fact that he STILL rescues Arya is just a coincidence.

Now please tell me this would not be BAD FRICKING WRITING!!!!!!!!!! Argh!

[Melifeather]

Ok. One more time. I see you really don't get my meaning, but I will try once more. Please (please!) note that I am arguing from the POV of a writer/a reader here, ok:

So this is the basis of the plot, ok? Let's move on from here, not asking about internal logic, but let's just follow the plot, ok? So let's keep in mind that Mance and Jon had the agreement that Mance goes and rescues his sister. Now we come to the next point, but please don't forget it's about the overall plotline here, ok?

Again, arguing from the POV of the overall plot: If there really was a secret plan it would be stupid for a writer to insert the information that there was a secret plan BY HAVING THE ONE ACTING OUT THE SECRET PLAN SAY IT!!!! For God's sake! What kind of a conspirator is this who announces that he has "ploys" in mind if he actually means SECRET ploys? I know he never said it was a "secret" ploy, but he had to be aware that people would ask him!!!!!! What was he going to say then?

Again, let's keep in mind that if your theory is true, we are talking about a ploy that has right now been announced, but no one asks what it is. But if Jon thinks Mance's plan is to save his sister by going to Long Lake, and if, as you argued, it is suspicious that Mance would ask for girls if all he had to do was go to Long Lake, WHY DOES JON NOT ASK WHAT HE NEEDS THE GIRLS FOR??????

Or, more important, why doesn't Jon ASK WHAT DOES MANCE NEED A "PLOY" FOR if he is going to pick her up at Long Lake??????????????

See what I mean?

Yes, I said ok to that because I meant this part was alright within the plot.

Because it is an element of the plot that is purely driven by inconsistent coincidence: two things happening without being related: Bolton comes to Winterfell. Mance comes to Winterfell. Both occurences are not related, according to your logic. But then, the most important plot development stems from this "accident": everything we saw in Theon's chapters would therefore be based on a mere coincidence. This is not impossible, of course, in-story. But from a narratological POV, it is BAD WRITING!!!!!

Again, try to keep up, ok? I am still talking about the plot as a whole concerning Mance, Jon and Winterfell. So please try to understand what I said. My question is: WHY DOES MANCE SAVE A GIRL AT WINTERFELL? He has absolutely no reason to do that if your theory is true. It doesn't matter if he knows that Arya is not Arya. It doesn't matter if he knew before that she would be there or not. The question is why he doesn't go through with his secret plan and instead rescues her?

And now let's look at that plot from a narratological point of view again: If your theory is right, then Mance Rayder would develop a secret plan, announce that he has a ploy in mind (which would, if it would indeed, as you claim, contradict the Arya-rescue-plan, serve as an open admission that the plan WAS secret, which is unlikely because if it openly contradicted the Arya-plan, Jon would have asked questions!), the leaves for Winterfell, and although he wants to do something we have no idea about, he does exactly what he agreed to do in front of Jon, but this is not due to plot consistency but due to a big coincidence: Mance is not at Winterfell because Arya is there, he is at Winterfell because there is something he needs to do. But, because coincidentally Arya arrives at Winterfell at the same time, he JUST happens to do exactly what he agreed to do. Not because it would directly refer to the scene where he and Jon agreed to the Arya-rescue-plan! No, we don't know his reasons, but surely they can't be related to the fact that he promised Jon to rescue her. There must be some secret plan and the fact that he STILL rescues Arya is just a coincidence.

Now please tell me this would not be BAD FRICKING WRITING!!!!!!!!!! Argh!

You know what? I am done reasoning with you, because it cannot be done. You've got your own ideas so solidified in your head that you cannot read my posts without twisting them into something that I never intended. Add to that, you insert demeaning commentary, like, "try to keep up, ok?" and "try to understand". Furthermore, you completely disregard any textual evidence that I offer with a sweeping comment that it's not based on the text just because it doesn't fit with what you believe.

You haven't convinced me of anything other than that you're a condescending, arrogant blowhard. If you cannot debate in a civil manner, then go somewhere else.

[evita mgfs]

snip

? Do you, for example, enjoy to read about sparkly vampires? There is a line, at least in my books.

Oh, I am aggrieved, fassreiter. The vampires may not sparkle, but they could be the wights or their Masters the Others, or the blue figures in the house of the undying.

I taught teenagers for twenty-seven years, so I have sinned greatly in my "teen" self who grew up on Barnabas Collins and Dark Shadows. I like my vampires sparkly and sexy, and the Twilight Series, although not a great work of literature like Gatsby, but to get teens to read outside of their assigned classics in English is no easy thing. They loved Harry Potter too, and I have to admit Suzanne Collin's Hunger Games series has overtones of Martin - the different districts all are represented by very distinct personalities with especial talents. Finnick reminds me of the Reeds. \

So - I read just about everything, even the cereal box in the morning! But my guilty pleasure is Edward Cullen and his sparkles. So maybe I am not too bright. :dunno: I have also read Ulysses and Finnegan's Wake, if that redeems me! :frown5:

:agree: But I do agree with you - we are glutted with vamp stories and shows and movies now!

[Mammothsbane]

Jon has no idea that Jeyne has assumed Arya's identity. How could he? Because of Melisandre, he thought Arya was on her way to the Wall until it turned out she was Alys. The pink letter suggested to him that there might be another Arya, but he really has no idea as to whether or not it actually is his sister, or another imposter.

Jon doesn't know that Ramsay's bride isn't Arya. He just knows that Ramsay was referring to her. I guess at this point he considers her lost in the North somewhere? Since he doesn't have her at the Wall and Mance doesn't have her at Winterfell. I don't understand why Jon is leaving the Wall though.. if his sister is coming to him, why leave?

In the Melisandre POV she also refers to Mance as a slave (to R'hllor).

Doesn't she refer to everyone as a slave to R'hllor? Like a "we are all God's children" kind of thing?

Edit: The above is actually incorrect. But Black Crow points out the error of this anyway.

And just a point I think fassreiter is trying to make that I'm curious about in your theory - if Mance went to Winterfell as an agent of Melisandre to do some yet unknown plan, why did he attempt to rescue Arya? Wouldn't that unnecessarily jeopardize his own plans and potentially blow his cover?

[Timeslice]

To me the "You told the world you burned the King-Beyond-the-Wall. Instead you sent him to Winterfell to steal my bride from me." lline is Mance speaking directly to Jon Snow. When he writes you sent him to Winterfell to steal my bride, he is talking about Val. We know there is some kind of romantic tension between Jon and Val and this seems like Mance is referring to that.

[Black Crow]

In the Melisandre POV she also refers to Mance as a slave (to R'hllor).

Already mentioned over on the dark side, but just in the interests of accuracy I have to point out that the passage in question actually reads:

Melisandre felt the warmth in the hollow of her throat as her ruby stirred at the closeness of its slave.

Its the two rubies - Mel's ruby is reacting to the proximity of the slave unit, ie the other ruby attached to Mance, not to Mance himself.

[Mammothsbane]

To me the "You told the world you burned the King-Beyond-the-Wall. Instead you sent him to Winterfell to steal my bride from me." lline is Mance speaking directly to Jon Snow. When he writes you sent him to Winterfell to steal my bride, he is talking about Val. We know there is some kind of romantic tension between Jon and Val and this seems like Mance is referring to that.

In what way? Val is not Mance's bride. He sent Val to the North to find Tormund, but doesn't that happen after Mance leaves? He would have no way to know about this.

Also, Jon didn't send Mance to Winterfell. Jon sent Mance to Long Lake. Either Mel sent Mance to Winterfell or Mance went on his own accord to Winterfell when he didn't find the "girl on a dying horse" at Long Lake.

[Melifeather]

Jon doesn't know that Ramsay's bride isn't Arya. He just knows that Ramsay was referring to her. I guess at this point he considers her lost in the North somewhere? Since he doesn't have her at the Wall and Mance doesn't have her at Winterfell. I don't understand why Jon is leaving the Wall though.. if his sister is coming to him, why leave?

Doesn't she refer to everyone as a slave to R'hllor? Like a "we are all God's children" kind of thing?

And just a point I think fassreiter is trying to make that I'm curious about in your theory - if Mance went to Winterfell as an agent of Melisandre to do some yet unknown plan, why did he attempt to rescue Arya? Wouldn't that unnecessarily jeopardize his own plans and potentially blow his cover?

I disagree with Black Crow's assertion that the other ruby is the slave. I think she was referring to Mance. Just my opinion, of course.

Mance has been to Winterfell before when King Robert was there. He took note of who sat where, so he should know Jeyne is not Arya. I don't have any ideas why he decided to help Theon and Jeyne escape. Perhaps the distraction helped with his own plans, whatever they might be.