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Targaryan and Blackfyre Alliance Theory

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"Black or Red, a dragon is still a dragon." - Illyrio Mopatis

I'm going to piece together several different points here, but my ultimate idea is that after Robert's Rebellion the remaining Targs and Fyres united in an attempt to get a Dragon back on the Iron Throne.

1) I'm not 100% convinced that Aegon VI is an imposter. There are 3 real possibilities, he is the actual son of Rhaegar and Elia, he is the son of Ashara Dayne and whoever dishonored her at Harrenhal, or Aegon VI is a Blackfyre.

If Aegon VI is a Targaryan, Illyrio's actions in AGOT make sense. Viserys is not a capable leader and Dany is viewed to him as a weak little girl. Illyrio has no intention of putting a weak Targ on the Iron Throne. He gives them to the Dothraki with every intention of both of them dieing, or at least Viserys. With Viserys gone and Dany as a Dothraki bride, Illyrio might see potential allies for Aegon VI. He and Varys know about Aegon VI and have every intention of keeping him a secret and manipulating situations to make it better for Aegon VI to rise to power. A army of Dothraki with the only other known Targaryan as the Khals bride could be powerful allies.

If Aegon VI is a Blackfyre, Illyrio's actions in AGOT and ADWD make sense. I have a theory that Illyrio is glamored. The real Illyrio died when the plauge arrived in Pentos and a glamor has been invoked on a Targ or Fyre since that time. Trying to kill all the remaining Targs would be a motivation of traditional Blackfyres, however, if all remaing dragons have an alliance, it works the same as my original post.

"Black or Red, a dragon is still a dragon."

Now, my favorite theory is that Aegon VI is really the son of Ashara Dayne and possibily Brandon Stark. These theorys do not make sense if Aegon VI is not really a dragon. I don't feel that Varys is lying to Illyrio but I have 1 final theory about Aegon if he is a Dayne.

If Aegon is a Dayne, Illyrio is being lied to by Varys. Varys has a desire to aid and help lowborn children. He sends presents to Roberts bastards and put Gendry in a safe place to keep him away from the Queen. Varys employs children as his birds to keep them safe. Varys, possibly, has the ultimate goal of putting a lowborn or commoner on the Iron Throne. His final speech in the last chapter of ADWD clearly shows that Aegon VI, whoever he is, is a child who has been raised to rule as duty to the realm.

2) The golden company. A sellsword group founded by Blackfyres who are now, for free, serving a Targaryan would-be-king. I know the whole "he will take them home" but I think there is more going on here. If all remaining dragons are united under Aegon VI, the choice of the golden comapny makes a great deal more sense.

So...who formed this alliance between Targs and Fyres. Bloodraven...maybe...how about Shiera Seastar. We have learned a great deal about Bloodraven and Bittersteel. The golden company is bittersteel's Blackfyre gift and we know that bloodraven is the 3-eyed-crow, quite possibly helping Varys undermine the stability of the realm through his ability as a greenseer. If Shiera Seastar was able to keep herself young through magic and was able to glamor herself as Illyrio after his death...she could be the one with great motivation in getting dragons back on the Iron Throne.

"Black or Red, a dragon is still a dragon." - This quote always struck me as odd coming from someone who wasn't a Targ or a Fyre. It makes so much more sense coming from an actual dragon.

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http://www.reddit.co...epton_meribald/

This also supports the theory that Aegon is a Blackfyre, posing as a Targaryan. It marks the belief that Aegon is the son of Illyrio, which I think is unlikely, but it more supports the notion that Serra is the daughter of a Blackfyre through the female line.

So...the Blackfyre male line was wipeout out...but Bloodraven is still alive as the three-eyed-crow. Just saying...could Aegon VI be the son of Bloodraven and Shiera Seastar...very unlikely...or is it. Which Blackfyre does Aegon descend from. Shiera's daughter...Serra...or Bloodraven's daughter, or Bittersteel. What would be the most fun?

If Illyrio is actually Illyrio...he is the father if Aegon VI and Serra who is the daughter of Bllodraven and Shiera Seastar.

If Illyrio is actully a glamor, possibly Shiera or another Targ or Fyre, I still think Varys is lying to Illyrio, this Blackfyre/Targaryan alliance is supporting a lowborn child, the son of Ashara and Brandon Stark.

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The Golden Company was not founded by Blackfyres, just the people who supported them and lost and fled...namely Bittersteel (Aegor Rivers) who was just a bastard, I guess technically he was legitimized with all the others so the Golden Company was really founded by a Targ.

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"Blackfyre" was not the name taken by all of Aegon IV's Great Bastards*, only by Daemon (and naturally his descendents). If "Aegon" is descended from a Blackfyre through his mother, she's more likely to have been a daughter or niece of Maelys the Monstrous.

And not to be an arse or anything, but how many different threads on this do we really need? It's starting to take on similar dimensions to the R+L=J discussions, only there's much less information to work with.

*Who, incidentally, were all born about 120-130 years before the beginning of A Game of Thrones, so there's several generations between them and kids of "Aegon's" age bracket.

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If Dany and Aegon marry, they will make final peace between the two bloodlines and merge them back into one family; that is, if Aegon is a black dragon.

Dany would probably go for that.

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I don't think there's a great alliance theory going on.

Illyrio (and Varys) are keeping their options open, Dany and Aegon are very different indivduals in very different circumstances. As things develop (Viserys dying, Joffrey dying, Dany getting dragons) they change and adapt the plan to meet their goals. Sure they can unite them and theoretically have a stronger shot at the iron throne etc. But thats putting their two eggs in the same basket, they're better of keeping them seperate and backing two of them.

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I don't think there's a great alliance theory going on.

Illyrio (and Varys) are keeping their options open, Dany and Aegon are very different indivduals in very different circumstances. As things develop (Viserys dying, Joffrey dying, Dany getting dragons) they change and adapt the plan to meet their goals. Sure they can unite them and theoretically have a stronger shot at the iron throne etc. But thats putting their two eggs in the same basket, they're better of keeping them seperate and backing two of them.

I agree with that logic, but the plot was for fAegon (YG) to meet up with Daenerys. Hmmm . . .

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Another thread to advance the idea that Brandon dishonored Ashara, but that seems so unlikely. Let's look back at what we know from Ser Barristan:

Someone dishonored Ashara at Harrenhal. How could he have known that, was it because he knew who had defiled his lady love? If he knew why didn't he lay credit where it was due in that sentence? I suppose he learned about the pregnancy at King's Landing, and put two and two together.

Many, will at this point, say that Ashara turned to a Stark. Why, then I must ask, would Barristan prefer that Ashara turned to him, first? So that the most honorable Ser Barristan could do the dishonor, personally? Not likely, so she turned to a Stark for help, and most likely Eddard, when he visited Starfall, well after the dishonor.

If fAegon turns out to be Ashara's child (I favor this outcome), his father must be a Targaryen for him to inherit the Targaryen features. That means that one of the two male Targaryens dishonored Ashara at Harrenhal. I don't think it was Rhaegar, because he has been cast in such a light as being completely honorable with Elia, at least until she could not bear anymore children. We do know that Aerys was fond of rape, and his lusts didn't seem to know any boundaries as early as Tywinn's wedding.

Now, we get objections because Barristan mentions grieving for the man who dishonored Ashara. Wait, Barristan is making a guess, he says "perhaps", or maybe I should say mayhaps to play the crossing game. It sure seems simple that Ashara could have been raped by the mad king, and kept it a secret, fearing for the lives of any she should mention it to.

To conclude, I believe that we will learn that Elia's second born daughter was stillborn and replaced by Ashara's son. Subsequently he was named Aegon and kept in King's Landing until King Aerys openned the gates to Tywinn and his army. Varys knowing what was about to happen rushes through the tunnels and substitutes another for Aegon, and ships Aegon off to Illyrio for safe keeping. They then hatch their plot(s), thinking they have a true heir. Their fatal mistake is approaching Aegon's true mother to raise him in Essos. Ashara (Lemore) will confess all of this to Daenerys when the time is ripe. ;)

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Sorry I'd forgotten that the plan was for Aegon to meet up with Dany anyway. I suppose that leads you to a debate about Tyrions motivation for telling Aegon to go west rather that meet Dany.Though it does make you wonder about why Dany was never told about her nephew. She was sick of Viserys and it could of helped her greatly to know she had another family member to relate to.

On your points about Aegons father I was under the impression that some Daynes have what is often percieved as Targaryen features, the silver hair and violet eyes. Ashara had the violet eyes, Arthur had the eyes and the hair. Therefore Aegon could have inherited the Dayne features from Ashara. Personally I think Aegon is Illyrio's son from a Blackfyre mother but if he is Ashara's son then who would the father be. Is Aegon a secret Stark not a secret Targ?

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Dayne's have features similar to Targs. If Ashara is the mother of Aegon VI, anyone can be the father.

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@MtnLion didn't we do this on another thread couple months ago?

I think that Ashara was in love with Ned, but raped by Mad King. IMO she killed that child, and then herself when she found out about Ned had wed Cat.

as far as YG/VI I believe 2 things that do not work very well together. I believe Vary's saved VI. I don't believe that YG is that child(unknown to Varys).

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What if the mad king was the one who dishonoured Ashara at Harrenhall? I guess I assumed that Blackfyre was the name given to Targaryan bastards, so if Aegon was Ashara's son bourn of rape, wouldn't he be a Blackfyre? Combining that with the assumption that The Golden Company's goal is to put a Blackfyre (Targaryan bastard) upon the iron throne, wouldn't seating Ashara's son from Aerys on the Iron Throne be seen by the Golden Company as the fulfillment of their blood contract?

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Blackfyre is the (somewhat pretentious) name Daemon took when he was legitimised. Only his descendents are called that.

There's also exactly zero evidence that Aerys had sex, be it consensual or not, with Ashara. You'd think that Barristan, being a member of the Kingsguard and in love with the woman in question, would have some thoughts on the matter when he reflects on those events.

The Golden Company's goal used to be to put a Blackfyre* on the Iron Throne, but with the death of Maelys the Monstrous during the War of the Ninepenny Kings that goal has effectively become impossible: there are no descendents of the male Blackfyre line.

So now they are a bunch of exiles and mercenaries without a cause, and "Aegon" represents an opportunity for the exiles to go home and for everyone to make a shitload of money, so they take this opportunity.

And if somebody wants to be all legalistic, with the end of the Blackfyre line the throne should naturally pass to the next best claimant, which would indeed be "Aegon". If he were actually who people claim he is. So even people who care who sits the throne (and not just how much he's willing to pay them) should be well satisfied with this.

*Whom they would consider the rightful king, they didn't attempt this for the perverse pleasure of empowering some random bastard.

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Blackfyre is the (somewhat pretentious) name Daemon took when he was legitimised. Only his descendents are called that.

There's also exactly zero evidence that Aerys had sex, be it consensual or not, with Ashara. You'd think that Barristan, being a member of the Kingsguard and in love with the woman in question, would have some thoughts on the matter when he reflects on those events.

I'm not disagreeing with you and I don't feel particularly strongly on this matter either way, but it has been suggested that Barristan not mentioning Aerys (if it were Aerys,) could be connected to his vow of silence regarding the actions/conduct/secrets on the king, leading to him not wanting to even think about it. While we have seen some PoV characters (i.e. Tyrion,) withhold certain information from us in their chapters, I'm not sure whether it is convincing that Barristan wouldn't even think about Aerys having done it, personally.

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There's also exactly zero evidence that Aerys had sex, be it consensual or not, with Ashara. You'd think that Barristan, being a member of the Kingsguard and in love with the woman in question, would have some thoughts on the matter when he reflects on those events.

Speculation is the bread and butter of a forums such as this. Yes, there is no "evidence" but there is intimation and hints that GRRM teases into the books. We know that Barristan hides King Aerys' secrets very well almost as if he were trying to hide the truth from himself. When Dany pressed him for details, all he would say about Aerys was that he took "liberties" at the bedding that Tywin never forgot. That could explain why he was so vague yet regretful when he recalled the events at Harrenhal. Let's go back and look at the exerpt of Barristan's PoV "The Kingbreaker":

...Ashara's daughter had been stillborn, and his fair lady had thrown herself from a tower soon after, mad with the grief for the child she had lost, and perhaps for the man who had dishonored her at Harrenhal as well.

It is written in a way to imply that both her child and the man who impregnated her both recently died. Eddard is not dead, so this casts doubt that he is the father. Another possibility was that Brandon, who was betrothed to Catelyn shortly before Harrenhal, impregnated her and Eddard was going to say it was his child to protect her honor and avoid bringing shame to House Stark. However, Brandon was killed shortly after Harrenhal, so wouldn't Ashara have had enough time to come to terms with Brandon's death well before her miscarriage? The timeline is never definitively set down, but she appeared to have killed herself shortly after the sack of King's Landing.

Is the evidence definitive? No. But then again, all the evidence we have for Frey Pies is 3 missing Freys, 3 minced meat pies and Lord to-fat-to-sit -a-horse's drunken ramblings about "He should have played the Rat King."

Yet that is considered a settled matter on this board.

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It is written in a way to imply that both her child and the man who impregnated her both recently died. Eddard is not dead, so this casts doubt that he is the father. Another possibility was that Brandon, who was betrothed to Catelyn shortly before Harrenhal, impregnated her and Eddard was going to say it was his child to protect her honor and avoid bringing shame to House Stark. However, Brandon was killed shortly after Harrenhal, so wouldn't Ashara have had enough time to come to terms with Brandon's death well before her miscarriage? The timeline is never definitively set down, but she appeared to have killed herself shortly after the sack of King's Landing.

You want to dismiss Barristan's thought that the child was stillborn, while using the other half of that sentence to construct a theory about Aerys being the father.

"The man" also seems like an awfully mundane descriptor for the king, coming from a knight of the Kingsguard.

Of course Barristan was half a continent away when Ashara died, so any knowledge of his on the matter is not particularly reliable. Especially her motivation for suicide is pure speculation, though the basic facts about her pregnancy are more likely to be widely known (barring any conspiracy theories about baby swapping, which I personally don't think is anywhere near as popular a hobby in Westeros as some would like to assume).

Is the evidence definitive? No. But then again, all the evidence we have for Frey Pies is 3 missing Freys, 3 minced meat pies and Lord to-fat-to-sit -a-horse's drunken ramblings about "He should have played the Rat King."

Yet that is considered a settled matter on this board.

We also know that "baked into a pie" is one of the various ways that people die in ADWD.

The Freys and Manderly also shared scenes, we have no mention of Aerys and Ashara ever even being in the same room together (I'm sure they were once or twice, but it's never been explicitly mentioned).

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Barriston has always been far to kind to king Aeryss. It does sound like Barriston, of the Kingsguard, cannot reveal all he knows:

"The Kingsguard, also known poetically as the 'White Swords' or 'White Cloaks', are the royal bodyguards of the Iron Throne. Supposedly the finest knights in the Seven Kingdoms, they are sworn to protect their king and his family with their own lives, to obey his commands, and to keep his secrets. They are sworn for life and are forbidden from owning land, taking a wife, or fathering children."

My theory of a Targ/Fyre alliance fringes on the idea that there are any Targs or Fyres left. It could all be a red herring.

I feel that Varys is the key and I feel that Varys, truely, works in such a way that he feels he is serving the realm. He may have 2 motivations

Destroy Magic

Reward and help lowborn or common born children

I feel that there is a chance that Varys has been lying to just about everyone, including Illyrio, about what he wants and who he is. Everyone thinks that Aegon is a Blackfyre through Serra and Illyrio but the child is really a Targaryan Bastard through the Mad King and Ashara.

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Barriston has always been far to kind to king Aeryss. It does sound like Barriston, of the Kingsguard, cannot reveal all he knows:

He refers to Aerys as "mad". While one could probably quite easily come up with worse words to call him, that's not nothing. He also tells Dany that all Aerys' secrets are hers, now that he has chosen to serve her. The only times he ever holds back from telling her the whole truth is when she explicitly asks him to, because she doesn't want to deal with all of her father's crimes (yet?).

These are also his own thoughts, he isn't talking to anyone, not even Dany.

I feel that there is a chance that Varys has been lying to just about everyone, including Illyrio, about what he wants and who he is. Everyone thinks that Aegon is a Blackfyre through Serra and Illyrio but the child is really a Targaryan Bastard through the Mad King and Ashara.

So far, nobody in the story thinks that "Aegon" is a Blackfyre (some people on the board do, sure, but even there that's far from the only opinion).

And why would anybody work hard for close to two decades to place some random bastard son of the guy many in Westeros not-so-fondly remember as the Mad King on the throne?

Look at Varys' speech to Kevan in the epilogue: does he sound like he really gives a damn that "Aegon" is the rightful king? No, he doesn't even stress his connection to the royal line (it's Kevan who makes that connection, Varys just calls him "Aegon", which is almost certainly the kid's real name, no matter who his parents are), he lays out how he was educated to be the best king possible. That's Varys' great scheme: put somebody who he thinks will do a good job in charge.

Of course, we'll have to wait and see whether "Aegon" really is everything he's cracked up to be. So far several signs point towards "probably not".

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He refers to Aerys as "mad". While one could probably quite easily come up with worse words to call him, that's not nothing. He also tells Dany that all Aerys' secrets are hers, now that he has chosen to serve her. The only times he ever holds back from telling her the whole truth is when she explicitly asks him to, because she doesn't want to deal with all of her father's crimes (yet?).

These are also his own thoughts, he isn't talking to anyone, not even Dany.

So far, nobody in the story thinks that "Aegon" is a Blackfyre (some people on the board do, sure, but even there that's far from the only opinion).

And why would anybody work hard for close to two decades to place some random bastard son of the guy many in Westeros not-so-fondly remember as the Mad King on the throne?

Look at Varys' speech to Kevan in the epilogue: does he sound like he really gives a damn that "Aegon" is the rightful king? No, he doesn't even stress his connection to the royal line (it's Kevan who makes that connection, Varys just calls him "Aegon", which is almost certainly the kid's real name, no matter who his parents are), he lays out how he was educated to be the best king possible. That's Varys' great scheme: put somebody who he thinks will do a good job in charge.

Of course, we'll have to wait and see whether "Aegon" really is everything he's cracked up to be. So far several signs point towards "probably not".

So, Barriston may be the key to discovering who Aegon really is...or at least the key to finding out who dishonored Ashara at Harrenhal.

Just because he says all of the Kings secrets are hers doesn't mean he is going to tell her how her father raped several women including her mother, which is most likely how she was concieved. Aerys was referred to as "The Mad King" so simply calling him mad is not really an insult, it is likely calling Barriston "Bold."

Varys, it seems, is lying to or at least misleading everyone...Tyrion, Eddard, and Illyrio may all think he told them the truth but I feel he is lying to everyone.

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